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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-06-03 Study SessionnMMCouncil Study Session Meeting Agenda ASHLAND CITY COUNCIL STUDY SESSION AGENDA Monday, June 3, 2024 Council Chambers, 1175 E Main Street View on Channel 9 or channels 180 and 181(Charter Communications) or live stream via rvtv.sou.edu select RVTV Prime HELD HYBRID (In -Person or Zoom Meeting Access) Public testimony will be accepted for both general public forum items and agenda items. Please complete the online Public Testimony Form (ashland.or.us/Council), ashiand.or.us/Council. Indicate on the Public Testimony Form if you wish to provide WRITTEN testimony, or if you wish to speak ELECTRONICALLY during the meeting. Please submit your testimony no later than 10 a.m. the day of the meeting. 1. PUBLIC FORUM 15 minutes — Public input or comment on City business not included on the agenda II. Buildable Lands Inventory Update Buildable Lands Inventory Update III. Land Banking Land Banking IV. ADJOURNMENT In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please contact the City Manager's office at 541.488.6002 (TTY phone number 1.800.735.2900). Notification 72 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City to make reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility to the meeting (28 CFR 35.102-35.104 ADA Title 1). "'Agendas and minutes for City of Ashland Council, Commission and Committee meetings may be found at the City website, ashland.or.us/Agendas.asp Pace I of I qFMA Council Study Session Date: June 3, 2024 Agenda Item Land Banking From Brandon Goldman. Director of Community Development Cow ; brandon.goldman@ashland.or.us SUMMARY Land banking is presented to the City Council for informational purposes and discussion as part of the Housing Production Strategy. This initiative aims to inform and engage the Council on the strategic action of establishing or participating in a land bank to support affordable housing development. POLICIES. PLANS & GOALS SUPPORTED • 2023 Housing Production Strategy: Strategic Action A. Evaluate participating in or establishing a land bank. • Council Values: Community affordability, including in available housing and childcare Regional cooperation, including in support for public safety and homelessness BACKGROUND AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Land banking is a strategic approach where property is acquired and held for future development. The primary goal is to purchase vacant, abandoned, or underutilized properties to meet community needs, particularly for affordable housing. The escalating land costs due to market changes are mitigated through a land bank, as the land is typically acquired before cost escalation and then can be utilized years later for affordable housing development. The adopted Ashland Housing Production Strategy (HPS) identifies land banking as a critical strategic action to support the development of affordable housing. The strategy anticipates the City of Ashland undertaking the necessary steps to establish land banking policies in 2026, with implementation expected to begin in 2027. This approach involves the City partnering with non-profit land banking efforts to efficiently manage and utilize land resources. The primary goal of land banking is to reduce or eliminate land costs for affordable housing projects. thereby increasing the capacity of non-profit organizations to build such housing. The City of Ashland will play a pivotal role in this initiative by identifying surplus City -owned land that can be contributed to the land bank. Additionally, the City will work on identifying and securing funding sources to support these efforts. By inventorying both publicly and privately -owned properties that are suitable for affordable housing, the City can assist in identifying properties suitable for needed housing. A collaborative effort with non- profit organizations that develop housing will ensure that the land is used effectively to meet the housing needs of low- and moderate -income households, addressing a critical component of the city's overall housing strategy. This Land Banking model involves the following key steps: 1. Acquisition: The municipality acquires surplus or strategically located properties, either through purchase, donation, or transfer. 2. Holding: Unlike private property owners, a municipality does not incur annual tax liabilities on properties it holds, allowing it to retain vacant land until a suitable development opportunity arises. 3. Partnering: The city works in partnership with affordable housing developers, leveraging the held land to facilitate the construction of needed housing. Pne 1 of ? Panes 4,1 of AS rnalto Council Study Session 4. Request for Proposals (RFPs): As the landholder, the municipality can issue RFPs advertising availability of the surplus properties, inviting developers to propose projects that align with community needs and priorities. Supporting Housing Development: By utilizing surplus city property or acquiring developable land, a municipality can play a crucial role in supporting the development of affordable housing. Through land banking, the City can provide a pipeline of land for future development and control the type of development that may occur on that land. This approach includes several advantages: Cost Savings for affordable housing providers: Municipalities can hold properties without incurring tax liabilities, reducing the financial burden and allowing for affordable housing partners to design projects, seek grant funding, and even obtain planning and building approvals prior to taking ownership and incurring financing costs. Incentivizing Developers: By providing land at reduced or no cost, municipalities can incentivize affordable housing developers to undertake projects in our jurisdiction given the cost savings from no - cost, or reduced cost land. Targeted Development: The city can direct the development of specific housing types that address s community needs, ensuring that projects align with local priorities. Community Impact: Land banking allows cities to proactively manage land resources, address housing shortages, and support sustainable community development. Through careful planning and strategic partnerships, municipalities can ensure that surplus land is used effectively to benefit residents, particularly those in need of affordable housing. To facilitate discussion of land available for residential development, the Community Development Department has referenced the draft 2024 Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) to identify parcels currently available that could accommodate larger residential developments. It is evident that development land in Ashland is largely comprised of small infill lots, and most of the larger residentially zoned properties capable of supporting developments of 10 units or more are located outside the City Limits, within the Urban Growth Boundary. The presentation at the upcoming Study Session will highlight several areas within the Urban Growth Boundary based on the Draft 2024 Buildable Lands Inventory where land banking for larger scale projects could be considered. By focusing on these larger parcels, the City can strategically plan for significant affordable housing developments that meet community needs and leverage the benefits of land banking. When the City undertakes the land banking strategic action as identified in the Housing Production Strategy (HPS), a similar review of developable lands will be of value. This approach allows the City to address the scarcity of large infill lots within the city limits and ensure that suitable land is available for impactful housing projects. FISCAL IMPACTS The costs associated with land banking vary depending on whether existing surplus or donated land is included in the land bank, which would minimize expenses, or if the City proactively purchases properties for the initiative, potentially incurring significant costs. The financial impact will thus depend on the approach taken and the availability of funds or donations. SUGGESTED ACTIONS, MOTIONS, AND/OR OPTIONS What is the City's role in establishment of a Land Bank: If the City prioritizes using surplus City -owned land for land banking, then how will we identify and evaluate these parcels for suitability in affordable housing projects? If we decide to partner with non-profit organizations for land banking, then what steps should we take to ensure these partnerships are effective and mutually beneficial? Pace 2 of 3 Panty 44 of 45 VA Council Study Session REFERENCES & ATTACHMENTS None Page 3 of 3 0 r`. Panes 4S of 4.ri ��•, Council Study Session Date: June 3, 2024 Agenda Item Buildable Lands Inventory Update From Brandon Goldman, Director of Community Development Cont- =t brandon.goldman@ashIand.or.us SUMMARY An update of the Citys Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) is presented for Council review. The 2024 BLI update provides an assessment of the capacity of land within the City of Ashland and Urban Growth Boundary to accommodate future residential and commercial development. POLICIES. PLANS & GOALS SUPPORTED Ashland Comprehensive Plan Housing Element Chapter VI Goal (6.10.04): Forecast and plan for changing housing needs over time in relation to land supply and housing production. 1. Policy 22: Maintain a data base that includes, measurement of the amount of vacant land and land consumption. housing conditions. land use. land values. and any other pertinent information. Urbanization Element Chapter XII 1. Appendix A entitled "Technical Reports and Supporting Documents' State of Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10 (Housing): Buildable lands for residential use shall be inventoried. and plans shall encourage the availability of adequate numbers of housing units at price ranges and rent levels which are commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households and allow for flexibility of housing location. type. and density. - Oregon Revised Statutes 197.296: Factors to establish sufficiency of buildable lands within urban growth boundary. BACKGROUND AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The City's Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) was last updated in 2019. This inventory offers a comprehensive list of vacant and underdeveloped residential and commercial lands within the City's existing Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) and City Limits. It is important to note that the inventory does not imply that all identified vacant or partially vacant properties are currently available for development; rather, it indicates that these properties have the potential to be developed in the future. An ordinance presented and approved in 2011 (ORD#3055) amended Appendix A of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan to include the BLI by reference as a technical support document of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan's chapter on Urbanization (Chapter XII). This ordinance amendment directed that future updates of the BLI are to be approved by resolution of the City Council to account for land consumption through development and other changes in land supply. A new resolution adopting the 2024 BLI is to be presented to the City Council for consideration on July 16, 2024. The prior adopted Buildable Lands Inventories (adopted in 1999, 2005, 2011, and 2019) do not reflect development that has occurred subsequent to their adoption dates. The BLI currently presented (Exhibit A) reflects recent development and land consumption through December of 2023. This update of buildable lands provides an adequate factual basis to evaluate developable land availability within Ashland's Urban Growth Boundary and City Limits. A Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) is an assessment of a city's development capacity. The BLI is used to assess if the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) has enough land to meet the community's 20-year housing needs. The Page 1 of rnalka Council Study Session updated 2024 BLI document, and associated Geographic Information System (GIS) database, quantifies buildable areas for all tax lots within the City's UGB, including information regarding the following: • Capacity of each parcel to accommodate future residential dwellings or commercial development; • Cumulative buildable acreage by parcel, zoning and comprehensive plan designation; • Cumulative dwelling unit capacity by parcel, zoning and comprehensive plan designation. • Projected population growth; 1. 2022-2072 Coordinated Population Projection: Portland State University Population Research Center. • Household size and housing characteristics and residential housing need 1. 2021 Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis In combination with the Housing Capacity Analysis (2021), Housing Production Strategy (2023), this updated BLI allows the City to assess whether or not there exists a 20 year supply of buildable land to accommodate future housing and business development in consideration of zoning allowances, physical constraints, and expected residential and commercial growth. Using the spatial analysis tools in the GIS, the area of each individual parcel that was constrained by steep slopes (over 35%), flood zones (FEMA 100yr. floodplain), and impervious surface was calculated to better assess the likely level of future development on the property. The resultant figure was called 'Net Buildable Acres' and informed an adjustment to the number of dwelling units that may be developed in the future. Key Findings: • Within the City limits there are 288 net buildable acres across all zones. There are 630 net buildable acres of land within the UGB out of a gross area of 985 acres. • Over the last 13 years the city has consumed 10.2 acres per year. • In May of 2021, the City completed a Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) which determined that Ashland has a demand for 858 new dwellings for the expected population increase over the next twenty-year period. • Within the City it is estimated that 1,407 dwellings can be accommodated. The area in the UGB is projected to be able to support an additional 1,303 possible dwellings for a total of 2,710 dwellings in the combined City Limits and UGB. Over the last six fiscal years the city has produced 90 dwellings units per year. • The 2024 BLI demonstrates that adequate land exists within the City -Limits and UGB to accommodate the number and types of residential units needed (Single-family & Multi -family) for the next 20 years . Recommendations The Planning Commission reviewed and discussed the 2024 BLI update at their regular meeting on May 14th 2024 and have forwarded a recommendation to the City Council to approve the resolution updating the BLI. Staff recommends approval of the BLI update to provide a current inventory to be utilized in evaluating the land supply to accommodate both housing and employment growth, and to inform the upcoming FISCAL IMPACTS Adoption of the proposed resolution updating the Buildable Lands Inventory will have no financial impact to the City. SUGGESTED ACTIONS, MOTIONS, AND/OR OPTIONS The Department of Land Conservation and Development has been provided with a copy of the 2024 BLI, and has a 35 day opportunity for comment as part of the State of Oregon acknowledgment process. Following this review period, a Resolution adopting the 2024 BLI will be presented to the City Council for consideration on July 16, 2024. Paste 2 of 3 �r rqAAm Council Study Session REFERENCES & ATTACHMENTS 1. 2024 BLI Report 2. 2024 BLI Map DRAFT 3. 2024 BLI Resolution Draft Page 3 of 3 C 1 T Y O F AS LAN D Buildable lands Inventory THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK PaneRof4.5 EXECUTIVESUM-NIARY.......................................................................................................... 1 INTRODLTCTION........................................................................................................................ 1 SECTION 1: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY.................................................................... 2 LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS DEFINITIONS AND COMMON TER-NIS.............................................................................................. 4 LANDINVENTORY ........................................................................................................................ S QUANTIFYING LAND AVAILABILITY & METHODOLOGY.............................................................. S BUILDABLELAND........................................................................................................................ 6 DWELLING UNIT ASSESSMENT................................................................................................... I CITY PROPERTY- PUBLIC USE.................................................................................................... I SECTION 2: DE'IOGRAPHICS.............................................................................................. 16 AmERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (ACS)................................................................................... 16 POPULATIONGROWTH............................................................................................................... 17 POPULATION MAKEUP............................................................................................................... 18 PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD........................................................................................................ 23 SINGLE FA_mIILY HOME SIZES..................................................................................................... 24 STUDENT POPULATION AND HOUSm'G....................................................................................... 25 SECTION 3: CONCLUSION, SUFFICIENCY OF LAND, HOUSING SUPPLY .............. 25 L"FFICENCl" OF LAND................................................................................................................ -'- HOUSING PRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 26 APPENDIX A -BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY _NIAP....................................................I APPENDIX B - OREGON ADMINISTRATIVE RI?LES...................................................... II Panes 7 of 45 Tables Table1 - Residential Density .......................................................................................................... 3 Table 2 - Total Net Buildable acreage (V&PV) City Limits.......................................................... 8 Table 3 - Total Net Buildable Acreage (V&PV) UGB alone......................................................... 8 Table 4 - Total Net Buildable acreage (V&PV) UGB & City Limits ............................................ 8 Table 5 - Total Net Buildable Acreage by Comprehensive Plan (V&PV) City Limits .................. 9 Table 6 - Total Net Buildable Acreage By Comprehensive Plan (V&PV) UGB alone ............... 10 Table 7 - Total Net Buildable Acreage by Comprehensive Plan (V&PV) UGB & City Limits.. 11 Table 8 - Total Net Buildable Acreage By City Zone (V&PV) City Limits ................................ 12 Table 9 - Potential Dwelling Units by Zoning Designation, City Limits ..................................... 14 Table 10 - Potential Dwelling Units by Comprehensive Plan Designation UGB & City Limits. 15 Table 11— Table 2 from PSU Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2022-2072..... 17 Table 12 - Ashland Housing Tenure, Comparison 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022 .............................. 23 Table 13 - HCA Forecast of demand of dwellings....................................................................... 26 Table 14 - Residential Production................................................................................................. 26 Table15 - Land Consumption...................................................................................................... 27 Figures Figure 1 — Potential Dwelling Units by Comprehensive Plan Designation .................................. 1; Figure 2 - Ashland Historic and Projected Population 1940-1972............................................... IS Figure 3 - Age Cohort over time ................................................................................................... 19 Figure 4 - Ashland Population Pyramid........................................................................................ 19 Figure 5- Comparing Population Distribution by Age................................................................. 20 Figure 6 - Population by Age and Sex.......................................................................................... 20 Figure 7 - Population Distribution by Sex per Age Group........................................................... 21 Figure 8 - Ashland Population by Race/Ethnicity ........................................................................ 22 Figure 9 — Comparing Ashland vs Jackson County Race/Ethnicity ............................................. 22 Figure 10 — Comparing Household Size....................................................................................... 24 Figure 11 - Home Size (National, by region; US Census CHARS) ............................................. 25 Panes 8 of 45 Acronyms used in this Document: BLI Buildable Lands Inventory CFA Climate Friendly Area CFEC Climate Friendly and Equitable Community DLCD Department of Land Conservation & Development EOA Economic Opportunity Analysis FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GIS Geographic Information System HDR High Density Residential HCA Housing Capacity Analysis HPS Housing Production Strategy LDR Low Density Residential MFR Multi -Family Residential OAR Oregon Administrative Rule ORS Oregon Revised Statute PPH Persons per Household SFR Single Family Residential SR Suburban Residential UGB Urban Growth Boundary Paow9of4.9 _,,,-<--mac t r v o f ASHLAND 2024 Buildable Lands Inventory Executive Summary This technical document, and corresponding map, provides detailed information regarding the amount of buildable lands within the City and Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) as of the end of 2023. The process of conducting a Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) is essentially an exercise in quantifying available land suitable for development within the City of Ashland's political boundary. Under statewide planning goals a BLI is utilized to assess whether the combined City Limits & UGB contain enough land to satisfy the community's twenty-year housing and commercial land need. The inventory should not be construed to mean all properties identified are presently "readily developable," but rather over the next fifty -years are likely to become available for development. In May of 2021, the City completed a Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) which determined that Ashland has a demand for 858 new dwellings over the next twenty-year period. This Buildable Lands Inventory shows that the City of Ashland has the potential development capacity of 1,407 dwellings within the city limits, and an additional 1,303 possible dwellings possible within the UGB. This capacity exceeds the forecasted demand for new dwellings and demonstrates that there is sufficient buildable land for the projected demand over the twenty-year period. Introduction The purpose of conducting an update of the "Buildable Lands Inventory" (BLI) is to quantify the amount vacant and partially -vacant land available within the political boundaries of the City of Ashland (City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary). In combination with the Housing Capacity Analysis (2021), Housing Production Strategy (2023), a BLI allows a community to determine whether or not there exists an adequate supply of buildable land to accommodate future housing and business development. The BLI was last updated in 2019. The BLI is prepared in accordance with OAR 660-038-0060 requiring that cities maintain a buildable lands inventory within the urban growth boundary (UGB) sufficient to accommodate the residential, employment and other urban uses such as public facilities, streets, parks and open space needed for a 20-year planning period. The BLI is effectively an analysis of exiting development capacity. The use of the City's geographic information systems (GIS) enables the City to evaluate development potential using 4 basic steps: 1. Identify both developed and vacant properties throughout the City and Urban Growth Boundary. 2. Calculate development potential in terms of number of future single-family residential lots, multifamily housing units, and available commercial lands. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT Pg. 1 PnnP in of 4.5 3. Identify development parcels that significantly underutilize their allowed (or proposed) development capacity; 4. Quantify physical constraints to development (steep slopes, floodplains, etc) to refine estimated development capacity on a parcel by parcel basis. If it is determined that future population growth, or economic development, will require more buildable land than is available, the community's governing bodies can make informed decisions, and implement appropriate measures to provide for the unmet housing and commercial land needs. As a companion document to the BLI the Housing Capacity Analysis provides data necessary to determine the mix of housing types will be needed to accommodate population growth and demographic changes. The City recently completed a Housing Capacity Analysis in 2021 and a Housing Production Strategy in 2023. In combination with this BLI, those documents will allow the City to assess whether the supply of available residential land is sufficient to accommodate each needed housing types through the 20-year planning period. In 2024-2025 the City will complete an Economic Opportunity Analysis update, which will forecast the demand for employment, commercial and industrial lands, This 2024 BLI will inform whether an adequate supply of land zoned for commercial uses is available to meet this forecasted demand. Section 1: Buildable Land Inventory A buildable lands inventory (BLI) is a state -required assessment of a city's development capacity, including the amount of buildable land available, and how that capacity can accommodate future housing. The BLI is used to assess if the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) has enough land to meet the community's 20-year housing needs. The inventory does not indicate that all properties are immediately ready for development, but rather that they are capable of development. Land Use Classifications The BLI maintains an accounting of all lands within Ashland's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) by Comprehensive Plan designation and by zoning designation within the city limits. Each City zone relates to a specific Comprehensive Plan designation as shown below. The BLI provides an assessment of buildable land for both the Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations. Comprehensive Plan Zoning Suburban Residential Residential - Suburban (R-1- 3. 5 ) Single Family Residential Residential - Single-family (R-1-10, R-1-7.5, R-1-5) Low Density Residential Residential Low Density (R-1-10) Residential - Woodland (WR) Residential - Rural (RR) Multi -Family Residential Residential - Low Density Multiple Family (R-2) High Density Residential Residential - High Density Multiple Family (R-3) 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. Pang 11 of 4..5 Commercial Commercial (C-1) Downtown Commercial - Downtown (C-1-D) Employment Employment (E-1) Industrial Industrial (M-1) Health Care Health Care Services Zone (HC) Croman Mill Croman Mill District Zone (CM) includes various district zones (CM -NC, CM -MU, CM -OE, CM -CI, CM -OS) Normal Neighborhood Normal Neighborhood District (NN) includes various district zones (NN-1-3.5, NN-1-3.5 C, NN-1-5, NN-2) North Mountain Neighborhood North Mountain Neighborhood (NM) includes various district zones (NM-R-1-7.5, NM-R-1-5, NM-MF, NM-C, NM -Civic) Southern Oregon University Southern Oregon University (SOU) City Parks Various zones Conseivation Areas Various zones The residential densities used to determine the number of dwelling units expected per acre of land for all zones and Comprehensive Plan designations is provided in Table 1. Table 1- Residential Density Zone Assumed Density R-1-3. 5 7.2 units per acre Suburban Residential (SR). Townhouses, Manufactured Home R-1-5 & R-1-5-P 4.5 units per acre Single -Family Residential (SFR) R-1-7.5 & R-1-7.5-P 3.6 units per acre Single -Family Residential (SFR) R-1-10 & R-1-10-P 2.4 units per acre Single -Family Residential (SFR) R-2 13.5 units per acre Multi -Family Residential (MFR) R-3 20 units per acre High Density Residential (HDR) RR-.5 & RR-.5-P 1.2 units per acre Rural Residential, Low -Density (LDR) HC 13.5 (as R-2) Health Care RR Slope contingent Woodland Residential RR-1 0.6 units per acre Rural Residential, Low -Density (LDR) 2024 City Of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 3 Panes 19 of 4.1i Definitions and common terms The following definitions were used in evaluating land availability: Buildable Land Residentially and commercially designated vacant, partially vacant, and, at the option of the local jurisdiction, redevelopable land within the urban growth boundary that is not severely constrained by natural hazards, (Statewide Planning Goal 7) or subject to natural resource protection measures (Statewide Planning Goals 5 and 15). Publicly owned land is generally not considered available for residential use. Land with slopes of 35-percent or greater and land within the 100-year flood plain was not considered buildable in conducting this BLI. For the purposes of updating the Buildable Lands Inventory, "redevelopable lands" as defined below were not included as "Buildable Land". This is consistent with the methodology used in previous Buildable Lands Inventory's methodologies for identifying properties with additional development potential. Properties considered "Redevelopable" that otherwise had further development potential, were included instead in the "Partially Vacant" category in order to capture that net buildable land area. Residential Density The number of units per acre (density) for residential properties with development potential was determined by referencing the base densities established in the City's zoning ordinance. The density allowance coefficient (e.g. 13.5 dwelling unit per acre in the R-2 zone) was initially established to include accommodations for needed public facilities land, thus a "gross buildable acres"- to- "net buildable acres" reduction, specifically to accommodate future public facilities, has been omitted. Vacant Vacant lots were those parcels that were free of improvements (structures) and were available for future residential or commercial development. Alternative designations were assigned to those parcels that, although physically vacant, were not considered suitable for residential or commercial development. Vacant/Undevelopable = Unbuildable acres due to physical constraints including: 1) with slopes in excess of 35% 2) within the floodway 3) within the 100-year flood plain 4) in resource protection areas Vacant/Airport = Land reserved for Ashland Municipal Airport uses. Vacant/Open Space = land reserved as private open space Vacant/Parks = land reserved as public parks and open space Vacant/Parking = paved parking lots Partially Vacant Partially vacant lots were determined to have buildable acreage if the lot size was equal to, or greater than, the minimum lot size requirements set for residential density [in each zone]. In Commercially zoned lands, those parcels with additional undeveloped land area yet containing a 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 4 Pant- 14 of 45 building on a portion of the property were likewise considered partially vacant. Collectively, these partially vacant parcels account for a considerable amount of Ashland's future land supply. For example, a five -acre parcel occupied by only one home is considered partially vacant, however the percentage of land that is available may be 80% due to the location of the existing home. Thus, in this hypothetical example, the partially vacant property would yield four acres of net buildable land. Redevelopable Redevelopable property is traditionally defined as property on which there are structures valued at less than 30% of the combined value of the improvements and the land. For example, were a building valued at $100,000 located on a property with a land value of $300,000 this property would be mathematically defined as re -developable: $100,000/($100,000+$300,000) = 25% Within Ashland, the high land cost relative to building valuations makes the above standard calculation method a poor indicator of future supply of land for housing and commercial land needs in our community. However, in mapping all such "redevelopable" properties utilizing the Jackson County Assessors Department's Real Market Values (RMV) for Land Value (LV) and Improvement Value (IV) the City was better able to identify many properties that were underdeveloped and more appropriately defined as "Partially Vacant". Land Inventory The City of Ashland contains a grand total of 4,258 acres within the City Limits. This is an increase of 7.9 acres from the 2019 BLI. This increase was associated with the Beach Creek Annexation and Subdivision which is the only annexation to have taken place in that time. The Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) contains a total of 4,732 acres. An area of 226 acres in the southwest corner of the city is inside the city limits but outside the UGB. For this reason, the combined total area of Ashland political boundaries is 4,958 acres. When dedicated public rights -of -way are removed, there remains 4,161 (84%) net acres within the City's urban area'. Public rights -of -way, parks/open space and civic uses accounted for 27.8% of the City's total gross acreage. The remaining land is classified as Residential (60.1%), commercial (11.4%), and industrial (0.4%). Quantifying Land Availability & Methodology The primary data sources used in order to determine the amount of land available within Ashland's UGB included: • 2019 Buildable Lands Inventory data and map • Jackson County assessor parcel data • Citywide Aerial photos (Nearmap June 2023) • City of Ashland GIS database (for building footprints, slope, flood, and impervious areas) • Ashland Building Permit data (July 1, 2019 through December 22, 2023) [this time series begins immediately after the data used for the 2019 BLI] ` `Within the City's Urban Area' includes both land within the City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary combined. If reference is being made to the UGB area exclusive of land within City Limits, we will refer to `UGB alone'. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. Panes 14 of 4S Each of these data sources were used to closely examine properties designated as available and to identify physical or other constraints to future development. Properties were analyzed for their available buildable land, and to ascertain whether the property was suitable for further development. Building Permit data, current as of December 22, 2023, was paired in GIS to county assessor parcel data, along with the 2019 BLI's dataset. Because the present parcel configuration has changed since the 2019 BLI, and because building permits are frequently issued to a subdivision `parent parcel' before the new tax lot number has been created it is not a 1:1 match. By using definition queries those properties were able to be easily identified and thus reclassified accordingly. This method ensures an accurate accounting of lands represented as "vacant" in the Jackson County Assessor's records, but for which building permits had already been issued. In the 2024 BLI's GIS project, each parcel within the City and UGB has been categorized as one of the following: • Developed =D • Vacant = V • Partially -Vacant = PV • Undevelopable = UnDev In addition to the primary categories above there are several sub -types of vacant lands that were classified to indicate they are not available for future development such as Airport, Parks, Open space, parking lots, and other public or quasi -public land. In general, a vacant parcel from the 2019 BLI was classified as developed if there was an existing building, or a recent building permit issued, unless the property was large enough to be further subdivided, or otherwise able to support additional dwelling units due to multi -family zoning. If a property had previously been categorized as `partially vacant' in the 2019 BLI, it was evaluated to determine the number of additional dwelling units (or sub -dividable lots) that currently could be provided. Using the spatial analysis tools in the GIS, the area of each individual parcel that was constrained by steep slopes (over 35%), flood zones (FEMA 100yr. floodplain), and impervious surface was calculated to better assess the likely level of future development on the property. The resultant figure was called `Net Buildable Acres' and informed an adjustment to the number of dwelling units (Adjusted DU) in the tables provided in this inventory that present future dwelling potential. To verify the accuracy of the draft BLI map, staff conducted site visits to numerous areas throughout the City that had experienced significant development since 2019. The `ground truthing' and examination of an aerial photography, allowed for refinement of the BLI to appropriately represent the consumption of property within the City. 1MWO••4OT16 Due to the careful reassessment of each individual parcel within the Urban Growth Boundary and City Limits, and the use of improved GIS spatial analysis tools, severe constraint areas not suitable for development were more readily identified and therefore this 2024 BLI provides a more accurate assessment than a simple calculation of density by area. The difference between 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 6 Pane 11; of d.!i Gross Acreage and Net Buildable Acres in the tables below represents reductions in available land area due to severe physical constraints, developed portions of properties, and other constraints to development. In total, there are approximately 630 net buildable acres of land within the UGB that are developable (across all Comprehensive Plan designations) out of a gross area of 985 acres. When considering properties within the city limits alone there are 288 net buildable acres that are classified as developable across all zones. These data are shown in Tables 2 through 8. Tables 9 and 10 show the estimated number of dwelling units that could be supported by each zone / comprehensive plan designation in the City, the UGB, and the combined City & UGB. It is crucial to acknowledge the significant shifts in state law over recent years that have impacted local land use regulation. These legislative changes include mandating cities to permit duplexes and Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) without restriction% enabling Middle Housing Land Divisionst, eliminating parking requirements*, allowing residential development on commercial lands§, and requiring the allowance of'adjustments' to local regulations". Collectively, these changes provide the potential for thousands of additional dwellings beyond the numbers previously reported. It's important to note, however, that while these laws make it possible to add dwelling units such as duplexes or ADUs on all properties with a single-family home, the actual redevelopment of established neighborhoods to this extent is unlikely. Ultimately, the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) provides only a conservative estimate of the number of homes that could be constructed within Ashland's urbanizing area. Additionally, it should be noted that the Climate Friendly and Equitable Community (CFEC) rule making is still being implemented. The Climate Friendly Areas which will be created are required to accommodate 30 percent of the future population in areas with increased height allowances and no residential density limitations. When combined with the removal of off-street parking requirements this potentially opens substantial areas of existing paved parking to redevelopment. As yet there has been no associated change from the State to the established methodology prescribed for BLI's and no direction from the state in terms of if or how these changes are to be factored into BLI preparation. Ashland has opted to look at this BLI based on the prescribed methodology, relying on existing densities for residential zones without factoring in the anticipated - but yet to be completed - creation of Climate Friendly Areas. It is assumed that once Climate Friendly Areas have been established statewide, the ramifications of new middle housing rules fully understood, and the effects of eliminating parking mandates can be quantified through changes in development patterns that the methodology for conducting future BLI's will be updated. ' HB 2001 801b OR Leg — 2019 Regular Session t SB 458 811 OR Leg — 2021 Regular Session x CFEC rulemaking Nov 2023 (OAR Division 8, Division 12, and Division 44). On March 6, 2024, the Oregon Court of Appeals ruled in City of Cornelius v. Dept. of Land Conservation finding in favor of the DLC and affirming the validity of the rules adopted by the commission 331 Or App 349. § HB 2984A 82nd OR Leg — 2023 Regular Session SB 1537 82nd OR Leg — 2024 Regular Session 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 7 Panes 1 F of 45 The tables on the following pages show Vacant and Partially Vacant land by comprehensive plan or zoning designation. These data are shown in tables identical to the 2019 BLI for easy comparison. Table 2 - Total Net Buildable acreage (T &PL) City Limits of Parcels Gross Acreage mr Net Buildable Acres Vacant 304 224.8 139.2 Partially Vacant 308 243.8 149.7 Vacant/Airport 9 94.2 54.5 Vacant/UnDevelopable 78 236.7 0 Vacant /Open Space or Park 409 610.8 0 Vacant /Parking 77 20.7 0 Table 3 - Total Net Buildable .4creage (i &PT) UGB alone + of Parcelsa Gross Acreage Net Buildable Acres Vacant 59 168.2 110.7 Partially Vacant 112 345.6 230.7 Vacant/Airport 1 ' 1 per plan Vacant/UnDevelopable 8 8 0 Vacant /Open Space or Park 2 0 Vacant /Parking 3 1. Table 4 - Total Net Buildable acreage (V&Pi) UGB & City Limits BLI Sl Vacant # of ParcfflF Gross Acreage Net Buildable Acres lo, 393 -� Partially Vacant 420 592.4 380.4 Vacant/Airport 10 11 � .2 per plan Vacant/UnDevelopable 86 244.7 0 Vacant /Open Space or Park 411 619.1 0 Vacant /Parking 80 22.4 0 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. S Panes 17 of 45 The following tables show the number of net -buildable acres by Comprehensive Plan Designations for City Limits, UGB alone, and total Ashland urban area (UGB & City Limits), and net -buildable acres by zoning designation for properties within the City Limits. Table S - Total Net Buildable Acreage by Comprehensive Plan (V&PTI City Limits Comprehensive Plan # of Parcels Net Buildable Acres Commercial Croman Mill 4 , . S Downtown 0.4 Employment HC 3 1? HDR 52 10.8 Industrial 3 5.4 LDR 46 15.1 MFR 108 21.2 NM 10 1 �. 1 SFR ?59 108.5 SFRR 3 2.5 SOU 1.8 Suburban R 1 0.1 Woodland 10 6.6 Totals 555 288.9 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 9 Panes 18 of 4S Table 6 - Total Net Buildable Acreage By Comprehensive Plan (T &PT) t "GB alone Comprehensive Plan # of Parcels Net Buildable Acres Airport 1 Per Airport Master Plan Commercial 3 4.4 Croman Mill 2 17.3 Employment 1 41.7 Industrial 3 9.2 MFR 5 21.1 Normal NBHD 27 69.7 NM 1 0.7 SFR 34 77.4 SFRR 33 94.1 Suburban R 5 7.5 Totals 111 343.1 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 10 Pane 1 A of 4.ri Table 7 - Total Net Buildable .4creage by Comprehensive Plan (JUPi) L%GB & Cit3' Limits Comprehensive Plan # of Parcels Net Buildable Acres Gross Acres Airport 10 Per Airport Master Plan 115.2 Conunercial 24 15.2 25.3 Croman Mill 22 61.1 85.7 Downtown 8 0.4 2.9 Employment 89 90.0 136.7 HC 3 1.2 1.8 HDR 54 10.8 13.6 Industrial 6 14.6 16.3 LDR 46 15.1 38.7 MFR 115 41.3 63.5 Nonnal Neighborhood 14 12.4 20.5 NM 32 69.7 87.9 SFR 303 185.8 301.3 SFRR 48 96.7 157.9 SOU 3 1.8 2.3 Suburban R 6 7.5 8.0 Woodland 10 6.6 23.2 Totals 783 630.4 985.4 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 11 Pane gn of 45 Table ,S - Total Net Buildable _ Icrea-e Br Olt, Zone 0 -Sl PI ) Otr Limits ZONE + of Parcels Net Buildable Acres C-1 19 11.0 C-1-1) 8 0.4 CM 12 429 E-1 58 48.1 HC 3 1.2 M-1 4 6.3 NM 12 11.7 R-1-10 54 18.9 R-1-3.5 1 0.1 R-1-5 79 45.5 R-1-7.5 128 36.7 R-2 ill 21.6 R-3 54 10.8 RR-.5 44 14.5 RR-1 3 2.5 SO 5 2.0 WR 11 6.8 Totals 612 288.9 Dwelling Unit Assessment Tables 9 & 10 on the following pages show the estimated number of dwelling units that can be developed on vacant and partially vacant land in the urbanizing area. Within the City it is estimated that 1,407 dwellings can be accommodated. This constitutes a reduction of 137 dwelling units from what was shown in the 2019 BLI. The area in the UGB is projected to be able to support an additional 1,303 possible dwellings for a total of 2,710 dwellings in the combined City Limits and UGB. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 12 Pane 91 of 4f; Additionally, it's worth emphasizing that recent changes in both local and state laws mandate the allowance of duplexes and Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) without the need for special permissions. These regulatory adjustments, along with other legislative efforts aimed at fostering housing development, have the potential to expand the capacity of land for accommodating more housing. This expansion relies on property owners and developers actively seeking to enhance densities through utilizing these measures. The estimated number of dwelling units assumes that upon remaining buildable lands within the City's commercially zoned properties, with mixed -use potential', that such commercial properties will likely provide only 50% of the residential units that are otherwise permitted at the base densities. This 50% reduction was done at the Calculated Dwelling Unit stage of the analysis, and then further adjusted based on site constraints and existing development to estimate the number of Adjusted Dwelling Units. Ashland has experienced a history of mixed -use development on commercial lands given the strong market for housing. However, to provide conservative estimates of future housing on commercial lands the 50% reduction from permitted densities is intended to recognize that a number of commercial developments may not elect to incorporate housing into their developments as housing is not a requirement within the zones. This 50% reduction in expected production was also included in prior BLI updates (2011, 2019) and as such provides for ready comparisons between the documents. Efforts taken by the City to promote inclusion of mixed -use developments within commercially zoned lands along transit routes can function to accommodate more housing on such lands than is presently projected in this BLI. 800 700 I 500 400 300 200 100 0 poi 0 �� Oo�C �QNO �OIO o� � a� ■ Partially Vacant ■ Vacant Figure I — Potential Dwelling Units by Comprehensive Plan Designation E-1 with a residential overlay, C-1, and C-1-D oa-b 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 13 Panes 99 of 4S Table 9 - Potential Dwelling L"nits bt' Zoniirg Designation, C'in- Limits Zone Permitted Density units per acre Calculated Dwelling Units (Gross acres x Density) Adjusted Dwelling Units C-1 30 538 162 C-1-D 60 172 48 CM Master Plan 88 E-1 15 936 251 HC 24 16 N 1 Master Plan 53 R-1-10 2.4 85 66 R-1-3.5 7.2 1 1 R-1-5 4.5 106 �09 R-1-7. 3.6 245 155 R-? 420 174 R-3 ?0 171 123 RR-.5 1.- 4 46 RR-1 1 4 3 SO Master Plan WR Slope contingent 12 Total 1407 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 14 Pang 9'1 of 4S Table 10 - Potential Dwelling Units by Comprehensive Plan Designation UGB & City Limits Comprehensive Planlir Calculated Dwelling Units Adjusted Dwelling Units Commercial 7 �r�S Croman Mill Downtown 17 1 ti Employnient 205 , 7 HC 24 16 HDR 272 124 Industrial 79 N/A LDR 51 49 MFR S 7 346 \1 114 �3 Normal NBHD 607 474 SFR 1202 676 SFRR 363 146 SOU 2 N A Suburban R 57 44 Woodland 7 11 Total 2710 City Property- Public Use Properties under public ownership are regarded as unlikely to be developed for additional residential uses because they are dedicated for public purposes such as public rights -of -way, parks, power substations, public works yards, or other public facilities. These city owned lands are therefore excluded from the inventory of vacant and partially vacant lands. That said, in the last year there have been discussions with both SOU and the school district regarding development of housing on SOU/School District land showing that there is an interest at every corner to address the housing crisis. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 1 Pang 94 of 45 In the event the City determined a property was not needed for public uses, the City could proceed with disposition of the property through procedures set forth in Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS 270.100-140). At such time the property was no longer restricted for public use, it would then be added to the inventory of buildable lands provided it had further development potential. Municipalities in Oregon are currently authorized to provide transitional housing on public lands in the form of campgrounds within their urban growth boundaries for persons who lack permanent housing but for whom there is no available low-income alternative, or for persons who lack safe accommodations. House Bill 2916 enacted in 2019 expands the allowance for transitional housing campgrounds with the expressed intent that such housing is temporary and may include yurts, huts, tents, and other similar structures. Such temporary housing units on public property would not be considered permanent dwellings, and as such the potential for such campgrounds does not increase dwelling unit capacity of inventoried buildable lands. Section 2: Demographics Demographics is the statistical study of populations, including their size, structure, and distribution. It encompasses factors such as age, gender, ethnicity, income, education, and household composition. In the context of a town's population growth, demographics provide valuable insights into the underlying trends driving changes in population size and composition. To that end, both the Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA)(May 2021) and the Housing Production Strategy (HPS)(Apri12023) have extensive analysis on demographics providing context on housing need'. These reports examine race, disability status, income, and other characteristics to help understand housing impacts on different groups. It is beyond the scope of the BLI to completely update all the demographic analysis that has previously been done in those recent studies, however both of those reports relied on the 2014-2018 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS). Since that time, the 2018-2022 5-year ACS data has become available, and the PSU population forecast has been updated as well. Therefore, we take this opportunity to update those data at a high level with regard to population, age, gender and race. American Community Survey (ACS) The American Community Survey (ACS) is an annual demographics survey program conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. ACS estimates are period estimates that describe the average characteristics of the population and housing over the period of data collection. The 2018-2022 ACS 5-year period is from January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2022. These estimates cannot be used to describe what is going on in any particular year in the period, only what the average value is over the full period. The ACS, like any statistical activity, is subject to error, and those margins of error increase as the geographical area decreases, as such care should be used when interpreting the data to not confuse precision with accuracy. Housing Capacity Analysis pages 35-59, Housing Production Strategy pages 85-118 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 16 Pane 95 of 45 Population Growth Oregon's land use planning program relies on population forecasts as a primary tool for determining urban growth boundary (UGB) expansions and for crafting new land use planning policies. By estimating future populations based on historic and current trends, as well as assuming the likelihood of future events, population forecasts provide necessary information to help planners, public officials, private firms, and developers better understand the short and long term effects of population growth in local areas. In the recent past, Oregon law required counties to create their own population forecasts. This resulted in widespread inconsistencies in the forecast methods used. Additionally, the costs of creating a forecast kept some communities from updating their forecast on a regular basis. Therefore, the legislature passed a law (ORS 195.033) that assigned the forecast creation task to the Population Research Center at Portland State University (PSU). In 2015, the Land Conservation and Development Commission adopted rules (OAR 660-032) to implement the new law.` Therefore, all data regarding population totals and estimates are from Population Research Center at PSU. The data is updated on a four-year cycle with Jackson County's report most recently released on June 30, 2022, and will be updated next in 2026. Ashland's certified population provided by PSU is 21,457 as of 7/l/2023 which reflects a 0.5% annual rate of change between 2020-2023. Table 11— Table 2 from PSU Jackson Count} Coordinated Population Forecast 2022-2072 Table 2. Historical and forecasted population and AAGR in Jackson County and its sub -areas. Historical Forecast AAGR AAGR AAGR 2010 2020 2010-2020 2022 2047 2072 2022-2047 2047-2072 Jackson County 203,206 223,259 0.99, 228,380 276,013 318,713 0.811, 0.6,, Larger Sub -Areas > r ! 20,626 21,897 0.6,, 22,553 25,208 28,257 0.4-s, 051, Shown above is a portion of Table 2 form the PSU Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2022-2072. According to their projections Ashland's population within the UGB will increase to 24,963 in 2050 and continue to grow to an estimated 28,257 in 2072, with an average annualized growth rate of between 0.4 and 0.5W For more information see: https://www.oregon.Aov/lcd/about/pages/population-forecasts.aspl t Chen, C., Sharygin, E., Whyte, M., Loftus, D., Rynerson, C., Alkitkat, H. (2022). Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2022-2072. Population Research Center, Portland State University 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 17 Panes 96 of 45 PSU coordinated population forecast 30000 dog, r 25000 •�+�� ----. 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 o Ln o in o Ln o Ln o Ln o Ln o Ln o o Ln o v, o Ln o Ln o Ln o a -;T Ln in Z .o r r, w w m m o o .4 cv ry m m V V in in kG to r` m —4-4 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Actual — — — Forecast2018-2068 — --Forecast2022-2072 Figure 2 - Ashland Historic and Projected Population 1940-1972 While Ashland is projected to grow the rate of growth is less than Medford and other surrounding communities, as such Ashland's projected share of the county population will decrease from 9.9% to 9% over the forecast period. In contrast Medford's share of the county population is projected to increase from 40.2% to 52.1% by 2072. This is because Medford grows at a faster pace than the other UGBs, taking a larger proportion of the county population growth. Ashland's historical and forecasted population are shown in Figure 2 including both the 2018- 2068 forecast as well as the 2022-2072 forecast for comparison. The 2022-2072 forecast show a larger expected population in the future than what had previously been forecasted. Population Makeup To examine the composition of Ashland's population, and how it is changing overtime, below are updates to a number of charts that were previously presented in both the HCA and BPS using updated 2022 ACS data`. Where possible all the following charts have been formatted in the same manner to the data presented in both the HCA and BPS for direct comparison. The City of Ashland is being affected by population and demographic trends that will have significant impacts on the housing needs of the future. Of most significance is the slowdown in population growth and changes in the age distribution of residents, including fewer children and higher numbers of seniors. In addition to these trends there continues to be an increase in diversity. The age distribution of a city is an important factor in determining current and future housing needs. An aging population generally signals the need for more senior housing, while growing numbers of children and young families would point to the need for more large family housing. As illustrated in figure 3, Ashland's collective population has been shifting older over time. The shifting age cohort line shows a significant increase in Ashland's residents that are 60 years or ` US Census ACS 5-year estimates 2018-2022 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 1 S Panes 97 of 45 older as a percentage of the total population. This trend toward an aging population, is likely to continue into the foreseeable future. 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 age cohort as a perctenage of population 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 < 19 20-39 yr 40-59 yr -60 + Figure 3 - Age Cohort over time. The `Sex by Age' Tables' allow an examination of the population make up. The population pyramid below as well as the following three charts are generated from these data. Ashland Population Pyramid 80 to 84 years 70 to 74 years 60 and 64 years 50 to 54 years 40 to 44 years 30 to 34 years 20 to 24 years 10to 14years Under 5 years (Z000) (1,WO) (1,60D) (1,e00) M200) (1.000) (8W) (cool j4Ws (200, OM OF Figure 4 - Ashland Population Pyramid N0 IW 600 800 1,000 1,200 1.6W 1.6W 1,800 2,OW 2,200 The following charts are updates from demographic analysis that was conducted in the BPS. Figure 5, below, is an update of Exhibit 19 from the HPS (at 87). Once again, the trend of an aging population is showing with 34.7% of the COA population aged 60+. This compares to U.S. Census Bureau. "Sex by Age." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Detailed Tables. Table B01001, 2022 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 19 Panes 98 of 4S 29.3% of Jackson County, and 24.8% of Oregon who are 60+. By comparison the US average of the population aged 60+ is 16.8% showing that as a proportion of population Ashland is more than twice the national average for aged 60+. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Population Distribution by Age, Ashland, Jackson County, and Oregon 2018- 2022 24% 24% 35% 26% 25% "°' 739K Z:5% under 20 20 to 39 40 to 59 60+ uAshland QJackson County ❑Oregon Figure S- Comparing Population Distribution by Age Figure 6 is an update of Exhibit 20 from the HPS (at 87). The data are very similar and show the expected pattern of a population that is aging with a notable decrease in population in the 20-39 age bracket, and in increase in 60+ especially among females. Population by Age and Sex, Ashland 2018-2022 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 11% 9°� 0% under 20 Figure 6 - Population by Age and Set 20 to 39 40 to 59 ❑ Male ❑ Female 60+ Figure 7 is an update of Exhibit 21 from the BPS (at 88). The percentage of female population has increased in each age group when compared to the 2015-2019 ACS data. 2024 Citv of Ashland BLI DR-XFT p8.20 Panty 99 of 4..5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Population Distribution by Sex for Each Age Group, Ashland 2018-2022 under 20 20 to 39 40 to 59 60+ p Male 0 Female Figure 7 - Population Distribution by Sex per Age Group The US Census Bureau collects and reports data on race and ethnicity in several categories. Individuals are asked to identify their race and whether they are of Hispanic origin, with the option to select one or more categories. The Census distinguishes between race and Hispanic origin, recognizing that Hispanic origin is an ethnicity and can be of any race. The main racial categories include White, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and Some Other Race. Respondents can also select multiple races or choose "Some Other Race" if their identity does not fit into the listed categories. Additionally, individuals are asked whether they are of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin, which is considered separately from race. They can identify as Hispanic or Latino regardless of their race. The data table "Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race"' was used to create the following two charts. Figure 8 is an update of Exhibit 23 from the BPS (at 89) with the inclusion of error bars for the reported margin of error. As mentioned above, as the geography gets smaller the sampling error will increase. Figure 9 is an update of Exhibit 24 from the BPS comparing race and ethnicity between the City of Ashland and Jackson County. As was done in the HCS those reporting `white alone' are not shown in the charts because this makes up such a large percentage of the population in Ashland (86%) and Jackson County (81%). These percentages have not changed from those values reported in the HCS with the older AC data. U.S. Census Bureau. "Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race." American Conununity Survey, ACS 5-Year Estiinates Detailed Tables, Table B03002, 2022 2024 City Of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 21 Pane 'in of 4..9 COA Population by Race/Ethnicity 3000 2500 2, 56 2000 1500 1, 4 1000 ~.. ;. 500 51 93 90 141 369 o Some other race Native Hawaiian American Indian Black or African Asian alone Two or more Latino (any race) alone and Other and Alaska American alone races Pacific Islander Native alone alone Figure 8 - Ashland Population by Race/Ethnicio, Figure 9 below, an update of Exhibit 24 from the HPS (at 89), compares the racial makeup of Ashland and Jackson County. It's important to highlight that in this chart, the consultants who prepared the HPS chose to consolidate categories such as 'Some other race alone,' 'Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone,' and 'American Indian and Alaska Native alone' into the category labeled 'some other race.' This consolidation was done due to the limited diversity in Ashland. To ensure comparability with the BPS, the same procedure is followed in this chart. Population Distribution by Race and Ethnicity, Ashland and Jackson County 14% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% +mow Some other race alone Black or African American alone 10% 5% 5% 2� 1% 1;;;;Q 61 , —; Asian alone Two or more races: Hispanic or Latino (of any race) ®Ash Waco Figure 9 — Comparing Ashland vs Jackson County Race/Ethnicity These data show an increase in reporting of both `two or more races' (S% now an increase from 3%) and `Hispanic or Latino of any race' (10% now, an increase from 7%). Jackson County also showed virtually the same increase in `two or more races' and to a lesser extent with the Hispanic and Latino population (increase from 13% to 14%). The changes in the data of Asian alone, and `some other race alone' & `Black or African American alone' are very minor and not likely to be statistically significant when considering the margin of error. Jackson County as well Ashland are well below the national averages for several of these categories; `Hispanic or Latino (any race)' — 18.7%, Asian Alone — 5.7%, Black or African American alone = 12.1 %. In terms of `some other race alone' when grouping the data as discussed above we are in line with the national average of 1.2%. That said, when considering 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 72 Pane '31 of 45 the size of our geography, as well as the general lack of diversity care should be used when interpreting these data. Persons Per Household In the United States, there's been a gradual decline in the average number of persons per household over recent decades. The average household size has decreased as more individuals opt for living alone, delaying marriage, or having fewer children. This trend has continued in Ashland as well. Over the last five decades persons per household (PPH) in Ashland has dropped from 2.84 persons in 1970, to 2.36 in 1980, 2.07 in 2010, and 2.03 with the most recent 5-year ACS data. This compares to Jackson County at 2.43 PPH and Oregon at large 2.46 PPH'. This illustrates that Ashland has smaller household sizes than the region as a whole. These PPH numbers are combined totals including both owner and renter occupied units. When looked at individually renter -occupied household size is smaller (1.84 PPH) when compared to owner -occupied household (2.19 PPH). It is also worth noting that this trend is statistically significant in both renter and owner -occupied housing when compared to the previous 5-year datat showing that the trend to smaller household size is continuing. Table 12 - Ashland Housing Tenure, Comparison 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022 Ashland city, Oregon Label 2018-2022 2013-2017 Statistical Estimates Estimates Significance HOUSING TENURE Occupied housing units 10,120 9,719 Owner -occupied 52.8% 54.1% Renter -occupied 47.2% 45.9% Average household size of owner -occupied unit 2.19 2.02 Average household size of renter -occupied unit 1.84 2.11 Figure 10 is an update of Exhibit 22 from the BPS (at 92). The HPS chose to group three -person and four -or -more person households into a single category so we do the same here. One and two person households represent the largest segments of Ashland's housing market. Combined, these small households comprise 76% of owner households and 79% of renter households in Ashland$. This compares to 79% owner and 74% renter in the 2019 BLI, however it should be noted that this has a margin of error of +/- 4%. Less than a quarter of all households within Ashland have 3 or more occupants which is much lower than both the state and county of 35% and 34% respectively. U.S. Census Bureau. "Average Household Size of Occupied Housing Units by Tenure." American Conununity Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Detailed Tables, Table B25010, 2022 1 U.S. Census Bureau. "Comparative Housing Characteristics." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Comparison Profiles, Table CP04, 2022 * U.S. Census Bureau. "Occupancy Characteristics." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables, Table S2501, 2022 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 23 Panty S9 of A..S With regard to four -or -more person households, Ashland only has 10% households of this size. This is less than half of the county (20%), state (20%) and US average (22%). A large senior and student population within Ashland understandably increases the number of small one and two person households given these populations typically do not have children present in their homes. Houshold Size, Ashland, Jackson County, ClRegon 2018-2022 100% 90% 22% 80% 34% 35% 70% 60% 41% 50% 37% 37/° ° 40% .:. 30% 20% 36% 29 % 28% 10% 0% -- — Ashland Jaco OR 0 1-person household ❑ 2-person household 0 3-or-more person household Figure 10 — Comparing Household Size Single Family Home Sizes The average size of single-family homes in the United States has generally trended upwards over the decades, propelled by factors such as suburbanization and increasing household incomes. This trend persisted until the late 2000s recession, during which economic uncertainty and changing demographics led to a shift towards smaller, more affordable homes. In recent years, there has been a divergence in housing preferences, with some buyers still favoring larger homes while others opt for smaller, more energy -efficient options. This shift reflects evolving preferences influenced by considerations such as sustainability, walkability, and affordability, particularly among younger buyers and urban dwellers. The Census Bureau's Characteristics of Households US Census Characteristics of Households (CHARS) data provides detailed information on housing characteristics, including the size of single-family homes. Figure 11 shows the Median size of new single family homes. Over the reporting period there has been a trend in larger and large homes peaking in 2014. Looking at recent building permit data the City of Ashland has seen a reduction in average SFR home size from a 2020 high of 2,317 sq ft and now averaging 1,550 in both 2022 and 2023 which reflects this recent trend to smaller home sizes seen nationally. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pg. 24 Pane 3 3 of 45 Median Square Feet of Floor Area in New Single -Family Houses 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 ti�� �hti��� ti���ti��~ti���ti��yti��� �����A�ti���3-�S 1� -�5 If,oti�oo�- f� ,, a"oo', 'f5",, ,o,, 'IP, "o,,��otiti States east -Midwest South West Figure 11 - Home Size (National, b , region; US Census CHARS) Student Population and Housing Southern Oregon University (SOU) can accommodate up to 1,094 students in residence halls, 165 in apartments (with two reserved for faculty), and 9 in detached units. In spring of 2019, 763 students were in dormitories, with 146 in student apartments and family housing units. Presently, there's room for about 331 students in dorms and 28 households in apartments and family housing. When the 2010-2020 Master plan was adopted it predicted that enrolment would grow from a 2009 enrolment of 5,082 students to approximately 6,000 students by 2020. SOU's complete enrolment in fact exceeded 6000 in both 2017 and 2018 but has since seen a decline over to —5000 in recent years. The 2010-2020 SOU Master Plan proposed building new housing to replace old structures, limited increases on -campus residency, and maintain a compact campus exclusive of the development of McLoughlin Hall. While McLoughlin Hall, with 704 beds, was completed in 2013, the older Cascade Complex (692 beds) is subject to demolition, resulting in minimal net gain in housing capacity. Future plans include a student life zone near the campus core and potential faculty housing in a proposed Faculty Village. However, since the master plan hasn't been updated since 2010, it doesn't detail this additional housing capacity. Discussions of development of proposed senior housing complex have occurred, but no formal proposal has been made, so this BLI doesn't reflect a change in campus housing capacity. Section 3: Conclusion, Sufficiency of Land, Housing supply Sufficency of Land As mentioned above the city completed a Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) in May of 2021. The primary indicator of future residential land needs is the projected population growth. In combination with changes in the number of people per household, and the assumed vacancy rates for housing units, these factors can predict the number of total housing units needed. 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pQ. -I5 Panes 34 of 4ri Shown at right is Exhibit 66 from the HCA Table 13 - HCA Forecast of demand of dwellings showing the complete calculations for how the number of new required dwelling units Exhibit 66. Forecast of demand for new dwelling units, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041 was established. The HCA determined that Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest. Ashland will have demand for 858 new dwelling units over the 20-year period, variable New Dwelling Units with an annual average of 43 dwelling (2021-2041) units. This was determined by first Change in persons 1.691 establishing the change in population over minus Change in persons in group quarters 58 the planning period from the official equals Persons in households 1,633 population forecast discussed above, minus Average household size 2.06 the change in persons in group quarters to New occupied DU 793 determine the number of people in times Vacancy rate 8.2% households. Then the average household equals Vacant dwelling un its _ 65 Total new dwelling units (2021-2041) 858 size (2.06 PPH) was used to find the Annual average of new dwelling units 43 number of new dwellings needed. Finally, the vacancy rate is then used to calculate the number of vacant dwellings to calculate the final number of dwellings needed over the twenty-year period. The 2024 BLI estimates that the City of Ashland has the potential development capacity of 1,407 dwellings within the city limits, and an additional 1,303 dwellings possible within the UGB. This exceeds the forecast demand for new dwellings and demonstrates that there is sufficient buildable land for the projected demand over the twenty-year period. Housing Production Monthly permit activity reports from the last six fiscal years are summarized in table 14 showing total and average residential units built per year (2017-2023). The present fiscal year is not shown as the year is not yet complete. It should be noted that this makes some of the current construction appear under -reported as 54 of the 70 units under construction at the Mid Town urban lofts were issued earlier this fiscal year. Additionally, it is worth noting that these data are recorded at the time of permit issuance rather than C of O which is important when considering the lag between the beginning of construction and when the housing unit becomes available to the market. Construction timelines for larger developments can often extend over multiple years. Table 14 - Residential Production Residential Units built per fiscal year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 average total SFR 36 39 32 44 32 17 33.3 200 ARU 13 19 12 12 15 12 13.8 83 Multi -family 29 34 3 96 4 20 31.0 186 Mixed -Use 2 2 36 30 1 0 11.8 71 80 94 83 182 52 49 90.0 540 Between FY 2017-18 through FY 2022-23 200 Single Family homes were built for an average of 33.3 per year. When ARU's, Multifamily and Mixed -use development dwelling units are ` 2021-2041 City of Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis at 69 2024 City of Ashland BLI DRAFT pa. 26 Pane 'I.r) of 4..9 D a cn 'v, 4 cn o cn cn 0 0 o N � — Q N O cn oo�oZ3 cn rn rn Cn io. 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H Appendix A —Buildable Lands Inventory Map _'02-4 BLI DRAFT pg. i PanP 37 of 45 Appendix B — Oregon Administrative Rules OAR 660-038-0060 Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) for Residential Land within the UGB A city must determine the supply and development capacity of lands within its UGB by condiicting a buildable lands inventory (BLI) as provided in this rule. (1) For purposes of the BLI, the city shall classify the existing residential comprehensive plan and zoning designations within its UGB based on allowed density. The classification shall be based on either: (a) The allowed density and housing types on the comprehensive plan map; or (b) If the comprehensive plan map does not differentiate residential districts by density or type of housing, the applicable city or county zoning map, as follows: (A) For cities with a UGB population less than 2,500, districts shall be classified as follows: (i) Districts with a maximum density less than or equal to eight dwelling units per acre: low density residential. A city may classify a district as low density residential despite a maximum density of greater than eight dwelling units per acre if the majority of existing residences within the district are single- family detached and if the city has a medium density residential district as determined by subparagraph (ii); (ii) Districts with a maximum density greater than eight dwelling units per acre: medium density residential. (B) For cities with UGB populations greater than or equal to 2,500, districts shall be classified as follows: (i) Districts with a maximum density less than or equal to eight dwelling units per acre: low density residential. A city may classify a district as low density residential despite a maximum density of greater than eight dwelling units per acre if the majority of existing residences within the district are single- family detached and the city has a medium density residential district as determined by subparagraph (ii); (ii) Districts with a maximum density greater than eight dwelling units per acre and less than or equal to 16 dwelling units per acre: medium density residential, unless the district has been classified as low density residential pursuant to subparagraph (i). A city may classify a district as medium density residential despite a maximum density of greater than 16 dwelling units per acre if the majority of development within the district is developed at densities of between eight and 16 dwelling units per net acre and the city has a high density residential district as determined by subparagraph (iii); (iii) Districts with a maximum density greater than 16 dwelling units per acre: high density residential, unless the district has been classified as medium density residential pursuant to subparagraph (ii); (iv) A city may not classify as low density a district that allows higher residential densities than a district the city has classified as medium density. A city may not classify as medium density a district that allows higher residential densities than a district the city has classified as high density. (2) The city must identify all vacant lots and parcels with a residential comprehensive plan designation. A city shall assume that a lot or parcel is vacant if it is at least 3,000 square feet with a real market improvement value of less than $10,000. (3) The city must identify all partially vacant lots and parcels with a residential comprehensive plan designation, as follows: (a) For lots and parcels at least one-half acre in size that contain a single-family residence, the city must subtract one -quarter acre for the residence, and count the remainder of the lot or parcel as vacant land, and 2024 BLI DRAFT pg. ii Panes IR of 45 (b) For lots and parcels at least one-half acre in size that contain more than one single-family residence, multiple -family residences, non-residential uses, or ancillary uses such as parking areas and recreational facilities, the city must identify vacant areas using an orthophoto or other map of comparable geometric accuracy. For the purposes of this identification, all publicly owned park land shall be considered developed. If the vacant area is at least one -quarter acre, the city shall consider that portion of the lot or parcel to be vacant land. (c) The city shall exclude the following lots and parcels from the BLI for residential land: (A) Lots and parcels, or portions of a lot or parcel, that are designated on a recorded final plat as open space, common area, utility area, conservation easement, private street, or other similar designation without any additional residential capacity. (B) Lots and parcels, or portions of a lot or parcel, that are in use as a school, utility, or other public facility, or are dedicated as public right of way. (C) Lots and parcels, or portions of a lot or parcel, which are in use as a non-public institution or facility, including but not limited to private schools and religious institutions. The excluded lots and parcels or portions of lots and parcels may not include vacant or unimproved lands that are owned by the non-public institution or facility. (4) The city must determine the amount and mapped location of low density, medium density, and high density vacant and partially vacant land in residential plan or zone districts within the city's UGB. (5) The city must, within the city limits: (a) Identify all lots and parcels within a residential district that are developed; (b) Identify all portions of partially vacant lots and parcels within a residential district that are developed with residential uses; (c) Calculate the total area of land identified in (a) and (b); (d) Calculate the total number of existing dwelling units located on the land identified in (a) and (b). and (e) Calculate the net density of residential development on the land identified in (a) and (b). (6) For lots and parcels that are split: (a) Between a residential and a non-residential comprehensive plan designation or zoning district, the BLI shall include only the area that is residentially designated or zoned for purposes of determining lot and parcel size or development capacity. (b) Between two different types of residential comprehensive plan designations or zoning districts, the BLI shall include each portion of the parcel separately for purposes of determining lot and parcel size or development capacity. 2024 BLI DRAFT pa. iii Panes Iq of 45 4 Buildable Lands Inventory Buildable Lands Inventory -�� Vacant 0 City Limits �. Partially Vacant Urban Growth Boundary Vacant/Open Space -Park Vacant/Airport 3 - `� Vacant/Parking Vacant/Undevelopable ijr- - � ---i _ f P+ t ♦ IcITY OF ASHLAND .a \ Buildable Lands Inventory Map zou, � Produced by the Department of Community Development Sources. Ashland Building Department data -\!. Jackson County Assessor data City of Ashland z000, voo5, zmi and 2019 BLI (� City of Ashland GIS '.0 035 0s 11 1 RESOLUTION NO.2024-XX A RESOLUTION ADOPTING AN AMENDMENT TO THE ASHLAND COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATING THE BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY AS A TECHNICAL SUPPORTING DOCUMENT OF THE URBANIZATION ELEMENT. RECITALS: A. The City of Ashland (City), in accordance with ORS 197.296(2) is required to demonstrate that its comprehensive plan provides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years; and B. The City last updated the Buildable Land Inventory in 2019 and was approved by City Council Resolution No. 2020-01; and C. The City, in accordance with Section 18.5.9 of the City of Ashland Municipal Code, initiated a Type III Legislative amendment to the City's Comprehensive Plan to update the City's Buildable Land Inventory and the official Buildable Lands Inventory Map; and D. The Buildable Land Inventory update does not amend any policies of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, but only serves to provide a factual accounting of the City's buildable land inventory; and E. The Ashland Planning Commission conducted a duly noticed public hearing on May 14, 2024 at which time it reviewed the City staff report and Buildable Land Inventory; and F. The City Council approved Ordinance No. 3055 on November 15, 2011, directing that updates of the Buildable Lands Inventory, a Technical Report in in support of Chapter XII [Urbanization] of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, may be approved by Resolution of the Council to account for consumption of land by development, and redevelopment, as reflected in the issuance of Building Permits by the City. THE CITY OF ASHLAND HEREBY RESOLVES AS FOLLOWS: SECTION 1. The City of Ashland City Council does hereby accept, the 2024 update of the Buildable Land Inventory as set forth in attached Exhibit "A" for final consideration and adoption. SECTION 2. This resolution is effective upon adoption. This resolution was duly PASSED and ADOPTED this day of June 2024, and takes effect upon signing by the Mayor. Resolution No. 2024-XX Page 1 of 2 Pane 41 of 45 Alissa Kolodzinski, City Recorder SIGNED and APPROVED this day of , 2024 Tonya Graham, Mayor Reviewed as to form: Douglas M. McGeary, Acting City Attorney Resolution No. 2024-XX Page 2 of 2 Panes 49 of 4.17i ,-<c --,C I T Y OF ,= -ASHLAND Buildable Lands Inventory Map 2024 Produced by the Department of Community Development Sources: Ashland Building Department data Jackson County Assessor data City of Ashland 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2oig BLI Buildable Lands Invent( Buildable Lands Inventory z Vacant City Lim ' Partially Vacant Urban G .a Vacant/Open Space-Park Vacant/Airport H� SA"v1e�.i�._ _ . � L"mf°'n""SI._ j.. �r_� , II , I-e �.,� a5 Vacant/Parking 66 Vacant p /Undevelo able its � I i ■_ icy , i,w 'j c v ■■ - , _ ;. '� `j-J� 1♦ / � ,9 + �Y,y„;� 11 � � �� -_I z i �+ ?' �� �sfc�UK ��s �c i yam` ' 999 � ,N•\� �. _ _� i .,1 r • / N ` .` SPEAKER REQUEST FORM Submit this form to the meeting Secretary prior to the discussion item. 1)You will be called forward when it is your turn to speak 2) State your name and speak clearly into the microphone 3) Limit your comments to the time allotted 4) Provide any written materials to the meeting Secretary 5) Speakers are solely responsible for the content of their statement Date: Na e: (Please rint) / A17- Ashland Resident: .SYES ❑ NO City: Agenda Topic/Item Number: V dS6 "DLL C)&-S Public Forum Topic (Non -agenda Item): Please respect the order of proceedings and strictly follow the directions of the presiding officer. Behavior or actions which are loud or disruptive are disrespectful and offenders will be requested to leave. Disclaimer: By submitting this request to address the Public Body, I agree that I will refrain from the use of any obscene, vulgar, or profane language. I understand that if I do not follow procedure my speaking time may be terminated, and I may be requested to sit down or leave the building. • GUEST OPMON S v i✓b .� 30�1/ M L ne undesirable tyranny of online filing_ ir requirements i ft Brent Thompson ncreasingly, to function adequately e an online capability is required. This involves expensive, equipment, i.e., smartphones and laptop computers. This requirement is wrong because it *increasingly marginalizes the economically ;disadvantaged, the unemployed, those out *of reach of WiFi and cellphone coverage, the disabled, those at society's bottom, and those who work but who lack the desire or ability to function with society's increas- ing technological demands. In other words, " online filing requirements by business and/or government are exclusionary and discriminatory. Thus, on their face, requirements for exclusively online filing, applications or processes should be illegal. Therefore legis- latures and Congress should make any and all exclusively online filing requirements illegal. This means there should be no rewards, no requirements no discounts for the online filing for anything. Of course, there is the societal or environmental benefit of reducing paper consumption and the speed entailed with automatic approvals and processes, but this benefit should never trump the benefit of being more inclusive and open. For completing any number of tasks, online communication is quick, efficient and economical. But what is good and manage - able for the majority often will not benefit a large minority. And what is good and easy for private and public administrative staff is not necessarily good for the public. The job of government or private administrative staff is to serve their customers or the public, not to operate in a more efficient but exclusionary fashion. For example, let's take a group most would profess to care about — those with no fixed residence, no job, no car, no smartphone and no computer. Or let's look at those recently released from jail. Persons in such situa- tions might desire to enter the mainstream, including working, but: ■ Only online employment applications are acceptable when applying for jobs. ■ Only online applications are acceptable when applying for any number of social ser- vice assistance programs. ■ Only online applications are acceptable when enrolling in academic classes or voca- tional training programs. ■ Only dnline communication is accept- able when interacting with taxing bodies or other government authorities. How do such policies assist those people most ion need of what is being offered? Why should over-the-counter applications be banned? Thus, we need approval, admission, rat- ification or validation procedures to be set as if the whole electronic system has failed and where paper communication is the only means of functioning. Then we'd have a more fair system plus we'll provide for the inevitable disaster or contingency planning always needed but not incorporated often enough into our systems. Our priority must be to serve taxpay- ers, constituents, the public, consumers and the disadvantaged, not government or company managers and staff who may seemingly benefit from the cost savings of eliminating having real people involved in approval processes, public interaction and/ or communication. It is guaranteed that perpetuating the electronic tyranny many have come to accept. will exacerbate, not ameliorate, our current seemingly unsolvable social problem of a large population being left out and staying left out. Brent Thompson lives in Ashland.