HomeMy WebLinkAbout2021-06-24 Housing & Human Services PACKET
Ashland Housing and Human
Services Commission
Regular Meeting Agenda
June 24,2021:4:00–6:00pm
Please click the link below to join the webinar:
1.(4:00)Approval of Minutes (5 min)
May27, 2021
2.(4:05)Public Forum(5 min)
3.(4:10)Fair Housing Presentation(20min)
Meg Tinnin,Education and Outreach Specialist
4.(4:30)Food Resources Presentation(25min)
Elizabeth Hallet,Peace House
Vanessa Houk, Southern Oregon Jobs for Justice
Pamala Joy, Ashland Food Angels
5.(4:55)HCA Final Draft Review and Recommendations?(25min)
Brandon,Senior Planner
6.(5:25) Virtual Post Legislative Session Planning Discussion(20 min)
(15min)
7.(5:45)Liaison Reports
Liaison Reports
Council(Gina Duquenne)Staff (Linda Reid)
SOU Liaison (Unfilled)General Announcements/Local Housing
SOU program report (Chris Mahon) Updates
8.(5:55)Upcoming Eventsand Meetings and Agenda Item Suggestions(10 min)
Next Housing Commission Regular Meeting
July22, 2021
9.(6:00)Adjournment
Ashland Housing and Human Services Commission
DraftMinutes
May 27, 2021
Call to Order
Commission Co-ChairRich Rohde calledtheZoom meetingtoorderat4:02pm.
Commissioners Present:Council Liaison
Rich RohdeGina DuQuenne
Echo Fields
Leda Shapiro SOU Liaison
None appointed at this time
(Vacant)
(Vacant)Staff Present:
Heidi ParkerLinda Reid, Housing Program Specialist
Chris MahanLiz Hamilton, Permit Technician
Jackie Bachman
Commissioners Not In Attendance:
Linda Reppond
Approval of Minutes
CommissionersJackie Bachman/Echo Fieldsm/s to approve the minutes ofApril 22,
2021.HandVote: All yes votes. Motion passed
Public Forum-none
2021 Action Plan Public Hearing
Linda Reid, Housing Program Specialist, present Action Plan for public hearing:
The City Council has identified thata total of $295,170 in grant funds in the 2021 grant year is to be
awarded to two projects: $270,170 to Options for Helping Residents of Ashland for to assist in the
conversion of an existing hotel to be used as an emergency shelter and the new home of the resource
center to serve homeless and at-risk populations, and $25,000 to Maslow Project for outreach and case
management for homeless youth enrolled in the Ashland School District.
Rich opens public hearing for public comment@ 4:24pm,no comments from public. Closes 4:26pm
Commissioners:Echo Fields/ Chris Mahan m/s to acceptAction Plan as posted. Hand
vote: All yes votes. Motion passed
Strategic Planning Workgroup Recommendations
Rich Rohde, Commission Co-ChairCommission discusses what the workgroup outlined for future priorities of the
Housing and Human Services Commission.
Alternative Shelter Update and Funding Report
Overnight parkingin city park parking lots is having some issues now that things are opening upas “parkers”
are not leaving during the day. Hoping that the new Urban Campground will relieve some of those issues.
Commission discusses how to facilitate the overnight parking programand agrees to table this for a meeting topic
in the future.Pallet shelter pilot programof 3 pallet shelterslocated at a churchhave residents in them.
Church andOHRA are working together to vet residents for these 3 pallet shelters and there is now a volunteer
that is overseeing the residents. Urban Campgroundis in the process of permission thru Jackson County.
Commission discusses what monies remain available from CDBG and Ashland Housing Trust fund.
Liaison Reports
Council / Gina Duquenne-nothing new to report
SOU programreport / Chris Mahan–Students enrolled for next year can renew leases for housesthru SOU.
Still a waiting list for student housing.
Staff / Linda Reid–nothing new
GeneralAnnouncements-none
UpcomingMeetingfor Housing Commission RegularMeetingJune 24, 2021
Adjournment:Rich Rohdeadjourned the meeting at5:55p.m.
Respectfully submitted by Liz Hamilton
Memo
DATE:June,24, 2021
TO:AshlandHousing and Human ServicesCommission
FROM:Brandon Goldman, Senior Planner
RE:Ashland 2021Housing Capacity Analysis
SUMMARY
Thefinal Housing Capacity Analysis(HCA) includesan assessment of housing needs, residential land
supply, and identifies a variety of strategies and actions for accommodating needed housing. The
primary purpose of theHCA isto ensure that Ashland has an available land supply sufficient to
accommodate our population’s housing needs over the next 20 years.Thecompletionof theHCA
through thisproject allowstheCitytofulfillarequirementsetforth in HouseBill2003which established
amandated deadline for Ashland to complete an update of the HCA byDecember31,2023.The
availability and award of the Department of Land Conservation and Development grant funding allowed the
City to accelerate the completion of the HCA in advance of this deadlineand to now be prepared to initiate
a Housing Production Strategy(HPS)to fulfill te remaining requirement of HouseBill2003.
The findings outlined in the 2021Housing Capacity Analysis quantifythe city’s existing and projected
needed housing under statewide planning goals and rules related to housing by type, mix, affordability
and density range. The analysis further determines the number of units and amount of land needed for
each needed housing type for the next 20 years. This analysis demonstrated that Ashland has sufficient
land within its Urban Growth Boundary to accommodate its housing forecast between 2021 and 2041
and can accommodate growth (858 dwelling units) over the next 20-years with a surplus of capacity.
The analysis also foundthat despite land supply issues, Ashland hasunmet housing needs for
households with extremely-low and very-low-income households, as well as households with low-and
middle-income. The forecast shows 273 of Ashland’s new households will have incomes of $32,600 (in
2019 dollars) or less, and about 127 of Ashland’s new households will have incomes between $32,600
and $52,000. To accommodatefuture households,Ashland will need more diverse housing types to meet
these housing needsfor lower income householdsand address demographic changes. The Housing
Capacity Analysis report outlines needed housing types over the planning period including rental and
ownership opportunities such as: small single-family detached housing, accessory dwelling units,
cottage housing, townhouses, duplexes, tri-and quad-plexes, and apartments. Ashland will need to
develop a Housing Production Strategy to further describe Ashland’s housing needs based on the
information in this report and will include specific strategies to address Ashland’s unmet housing needs.
BACKGROUND AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Following the award of a State Grant from the Department of Land Conservation and Development,
EcoNorthwest consultants and City staff began an analysis of Ashland’s housing capacity in October
Page 2of 2
2020. This update of Ashland’s 2012 Housing Needs Analysisis on schedule and is tobe completed by
June30, 2021.ECONorthwest has now completed its grant funded work, and the Housing and Human
Services Commission is presented with the hearings-ready draftHousing Capacity Analysis(HCA)for
review and recommendation.
The Housing Strategy appendix to the draft Housing Capacity Analysis providesthe City with a starting
point for the future development of a Housing Production Strategy(HPS). The development of the HPS
will involve reviewingthe recommended strategies and actions provided in thisHCAdocument,
assessing whether additional strategies are necessary, providing more detail about each selected strategy,
and setting an implementation schedule for specific actionsto be undertaken by the City by the year
2030.
To assist in the development of the Housing CapacityAnalysis, an advisory group was formed
comprised ofmembers of the Planning Commission, Conservation Commission, Housing and Human
Services Commission, a member of the Ashland School Board, and members of both the non-profit and
market-ratehousing development communities. This advisory group discussed general project
assumptions, results, and implications at four meetings held between December 2020 and April 2021.
The group also explored and suggested a range of housing policy options and strategies for the City of
Ashland to further consider as it addresses its housing needs.
On January 21. 2021 the Planning Commission and Housing and Human Services Commission held a
joint study session to review initial findings presented by EcoNorthwest relating to the land supply and
projected housing needs. The Planning Commission held a study session on the HCA on March 23,
th
2021. The Housing and Human ServicesCommissionmet on March 25, 2021, to further discuss the
draft analysis and housing strategies presented for consideration.
stth
From April 1through April 15the City of Ashland held a “virtual open house” in which Ashland
residents could review information relating to Ashland’s housing market, demographics, land need, and
needed housing types. The open-house also included a series of survey questions for respondents to
provide their perspective on the community’s housing needs, preferences, and values. Approximately
400 people attended the open house and 267 people responded to the survey(Summary of Virtual Open
House Responses).
Public HearingSchedule:
The Planning Commission public hearingisscheduledonJuly 13, 2021.
TheCity Council public hearingand first reading is scheduledonAugust 3, 2021.
Attachments
Final Draft Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA)
o HCA Appendix A -Housing Strategies
o HCA Appendix B -Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI)
o HCA Appendix C BLISummary
DEPT. OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENTTel: 541-488-5305
20 E. Main StreetFax: 541-552-2050
Ashland, Oregon 97520TTY: 800-735-2900
www.ashland.or.us
City of Ashland
2021—2041HousingCapacity Analysis
May2021
Prepared for: City of Ashland
FINALREPORT
KOIN Center
222 SW Columbia Street
Suite 1600
Portland, OR 97201
503-222-6060
This page intentionally blank
Acknowledgements
ECONorthwest prepared this report for the City of Ashland. ECONorthwest and the City of
Ashland thank those who helped develop the Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis. This project
is funded by Oregon general fund dollars through the Department of Land Conservation and
Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or
policies of the State of Oregon.
Project Advisory Committee
Jim Westrick
Lynn Thompson
Kerry KenCairn Ryan Haynes
Echo Fields Robert Kendrick
Heidi Parker Mark Knox
Christopher Brown Gil Livni
State of Oregon
Josh Le Bombard, Regional Representative, DLCD
Kevin Young, Senior Urban Planner, DLCD
City of Ashland
Bill Molnar, Director of Community Development
Brandon Goldman, Senior Planner
Linda Reid, Housing Program Specialist
Consulting Team (ECONorthwest)
Beth Goodman, Project Director
Sadie DiNatale, Project Manager
Luna Ou, Technical Manager I
City ofAshland Contact: ECONorthwest Contact:
Brandon Goldman, Senior Planner Beth Goodman, Project Director
City of Ashland, Planning Division ECONorthwest
20 East Main Street 222 SW Columbia, Suite 1600
Ashland, OR 97520 Portland, OR 97201
541-552-2076 503-222-6060
brandon.goldman@ashland.or.us goodman@econw.com
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Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................................... III
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ I
W HAT ARE THE KEY HOUSING NEEDS IN A SHLAND? ........................................................................................................... II
H OW MUCH POPULATION GROWTH IS A SHLAND PLANNING FOR? ....................................................................................... III
H OW MUCH HOUSING WILL A SHLAND NEED? ................................................................................................................. III
H OW MUCH BUILDABLE RESIDENTIAL LAND DOES A SHLAND CURRENTLY HAVE? ...................................................................... IV
H OW MUCH LAND WILL BE REQUIRED FOR HOUSING? ....................................................................................................... IV
W HAT ARE THE KEY FINDINGS OF THE H OUSING C APACITY A NALYSIS? .................................................................................. V
1.INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 1
F RAMEWORK FOR A H OUSING C APACITY A NALYSIS ........................................................................................................... 2
P UBLIC P ROCESS........................................................................................................................................................ 3
O RGANIZATION OF THIS R EPORT ................................................................................................................................... 5
2.RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY................................................................................................. 6
R ESULTS OF THE 2019I NVENTORY................................................................................................................................ 6
2020I NVENTORY U PDATE.......................................................................................................................................... 8
3.HISTORICAL AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ........................................................................................ 9
D ATA U SED IN THIS A NALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................... 10
T RENDS IN H OUSING M IX .......................................................................................................................................... 12
T RENDS IN T ENURE................................................................................................................................................... 16
V ACANCY R ATES...................................................................................................................................................... 19
G OVERNMENT-A SSISTED H OUSING ............................................................................................................................. 20
M ANUFACTURED H OMES .......................................................................................................................................... 21
4.DEMOGRAPHIC AND OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ASHLAND .................... 22
D EMOGRAPHIC AND S OCIOECONOMIC F ACTORS A FFECTING H OUSING C HOICE .................................................................... 23
R EGIONAL AND L OCAL T RENDS A FFECTING A FFORDABILITY IN A SHLAND ............................................................................. 51
S UMMARY OF THE F ACTORS A FFECTING A SHLAND’S H OUSING N EEDS................................................................................ 65
5.HOUSING NEED IN ASHLAND ....................................................................................................................... 68
P ROJECTED N EW H OUSING U NITS N EEDED IN THE N EXT 20 Y EARS .................................................................................... 68
N EEDED H OUSING BY I NCOME L EVEL ........................................................................................................................... 74
O THER H OUSING N EEDS............................................................................................................................................ 75
6.RESIDENTIAL LAND SUFFICIENCY IN ASHLAND ............................................................................................. 78
C APACITY A NALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 78
R ESIDENTIAL L AND S UFFICIENCY ................................................................................................................................. 80
C ONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................... 83
APPENDIX A: ASHLAND HOUSING STRATEGY ....................................................................................................... 85
APPENDIX B: CITY OF ASHLAND’S 2019 BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY............. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL BUILDABLE LANDS AND HOUSING CAPACITY INFORMATION .. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT
DEFINED.
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Executive Summary
Over the last two decades, Ashland has changed considerably. The city grew from 19,522
people in 2000 to 20,960 people in 2019, an addition of 1,438 people or 7% growth. Housing
affordability is a challenge across Jackson County, with housing costs in Ashland considerably
above regional averages. In 2020, the median home sales price in Ashland was $434,000, more
than $130,000 above the median sales prices for Medford, Central Point, and other cities in the
region. The only other city with sales prices comparable to Ashland was Jacksonville. In
addition, 46% of Ashland’s households were cost burdened, more than the county average of
1
39% of households. Cost burden in Ashland increased from 41% in 2000 to 46% in 2014-2018
based on data from the Census’ American Community Survey.
The Alameda wildfire increased the regional need for affordable housing by destroying about
2,549 dwellings in September 2020. The Alameda fire burned from north Ashland to just south
2
These losses
of Medford, with the cities of Phoenix and Talent losing the majority of housing.
increased regional need for affordable housing and overall pressure on the Ashland housing
market.
This report presents Ashland’s Housing Capacity Analysis for the 2021 to 2041 period. It is
intended to comply with statewide planning policies that govern planning for housing and
residential development, including Goal 10 (Housing) and OAR 660 Division 8. The methods
used for this study generally follow the Planning for Residential Growth guidebook, published by
the Oregon Transportation and Growth Management Program (1996).
The primary goals of the housing capacity analysis were to (1) project the amount of land
needed to accommodate the future housing needs of all types within the Ashland Urban
Growth Boundary (UGB), (2) evaluate the existing residential land supply within the Ashland
UGB to determine if it is adequate to meet that need, (3) fulfill state planning requirements for a
twenty-year supply of residential land, and (4) identify policy and program options for the City
to meet identified housing needs.
Throughout this project ECONorthwest solicited public input from an ad-hoc Project Advisory
Committee that met four timesto discuss project assumptions, results, and implications. The
project relied on the Project Advisory Committee to review draft products and provide input at
key points. The City of Ashland and ECONorthwest additionally solicited input from the
Housing and Human Services Commission (HHSC) and the Planning Commission in January
2021 and March 2021 as well as from the public at a virtual open house held online in April. The
1
Cost burdened households pay more than 30% of their income on housing
2
Based on information from Jackson County.
https://jcgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/9c9c796ff7ff44c0b1e5d21f2d71c9fb
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis i
open house provided information about Ashland’s housing market and inquired about the
community’s housing needs, preferences, and values.
What are the key housing needs in Ashland?
Ashland’s population is forecast to grow at a similar pace as in the past. Ashland UGB
is forecast to grow from 21,936 people in 2021 to 23,627 people in 2041, an increase of
1,691 people. This population growth will occur at an average annual growth rate of
0.37%.
Ashland’s housing stock is predominantly single-family detached housing units. 66%
of the housing stock is single-family detached housing, 25% is multifamily housing and
9% is single-family attached housing. The majority of Ashland homeowners (88%) lived
in single-family detached housing, while almost half of renters (51%) live in multifamily
housing.
Since 2000, Ashland’s housing mix has remained relatively static. The housing stock
grew by about 18% (about 1,634 new units) between 2000 and the 2014-2018 period, with
the share of single-family detached housing increasing from 62% to 66% of all housing.
Single-family housing accounted for more than half of new housing growth in
Ashland between fiscal year 2010-11 and fiscal year 2019-20. About 63% of new
housing permitted in that time was for single-family housing units (417 dwelling units),
25% was for multifamily housing (163 dwelling units), and 13% was for accessory
dwelling units (83 dwelling units).
Demographic and economic trends will drive demand for affordable and diverse
housing in Ashland. Key demographic and economic trends affecting Ashland’s future
housing needs are the aging of the baby boomers, the aging of the millennials and
Generation Z, and the continued growth in Hispanic and Latino population.
Baby boomers are expected to remain in their homes as long as possible but demand
for specialized senior housing, such as age-restricted housing or continuum of care
housing, may grow in Ashland.
The ability to attract millennials and Generation Z will depend on the City’s
availability of renter- and ownership-housing large enough to accommodate families
while still being relatively affordable, as homeownership decline among Millennials
and Generation Z may have more to do with financial barriers rather than the
preference to rent.
Growth in Latino households will drive demand for housing for families with
children and possibly multiple-generation households. Given the lower income
average for Latino households (especially first-generation immigrants), growth will
also drive demand for affordable housing, for ownership and renting.
Ashland lacks enough housing that is affordable, both for renter and homeowners.
Ashland’s median household income was $50,613, in line with the County’s median
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis ii
household income of $50,851. Approximately 26% of Ashland’s households earn less
than $25,000 per year, compared to 24% in Jackson County and 20% in Oregon. About
46% of Ashland’s households were cost burdened, compared to the countywide average
of 39%. About 63% of Ashland’s renters are cost burdened and about 31% of
homeowners were cost burdened.
Housing affordability is a growing challenge in Ashland. Housing prices are
increasing faster than incomes in Ashland and Jackson County, which is consistent with
state and national challenges. On average, the reported value of a house in Ashland was
5.8 times the median household income in 2000, and 8.5 times median household income
in the 2014-2018 period. Ashland’s median home sales price in August-October 2020 was
$434,000, which is about $130,000 higher than other cities in the county, except for
Jacksonville. According to a review of currently available rental properties as of
December 2020, the typical rent for a two-bedroom unit ranged from $1,145 to $1,560
and the typical rent for a three-bedroom unit ranged from $1,595 to $1,995 (CPM Real
Estate Services).
The Alameda wildfire increased the regional need for affordable housing. The
Alameda fire burned from north Ashland to just south of Medford, destroying about
2,549 dwellings in September 2020. These losses increased regional need for affordable
housing and overall pressure on the Ashland housing market.
How much population growth is Ashlandplanning for?
Ashland’s population within its urban growth boundary is projected to grow by over 1,691
people between 2021 and 2041, at an average annual growth rate of 0.37%.
Exhibit 1 Forecast of Population Growth, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Oregon Population Forecast Program, Portland State University, Population Research Center, 2018.
21,936 23,627 1,6918% increase
Residents inResidents in New residents 0.37% AAGR
20212041 2021 to 2041
How much housing will Ashlandneed?
To accommodate the city’s forecasted population growth of 1,691 people, Ashland needs to plan
for 858 new dwelling units between 2021 and 2041. About 300 units of new housing will be
single-family detached (35%); 86 units of new housing will be single-family attached (10%); 172
units of new housing will be duplexes, triplexes, or quadplexes (20%); and about 300 units will
be multifamily housing with five or more units per structure (35%).
This housing mix is a shift from the 2014-2018 period, when 66% of Ashland’s housing stock
was single-family detached, 9% was single-family attached, 11% was multifamily (with two to
four units per structure), and 14% was multifamily (with five or more units per structure).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis iii
How much buildable residential land does Ashlandcurrently
have?
In 2019, the City of Ashland’s Department of Community Development prepared the City’s BLI.
ECONorthwest worked with City staff to update the 2019 BLI results based on development
that was permitted between July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2020, which accounted for housing
development that occurred after development of the 2019 BLI. The 2020 BLI results determined
that Ashland’s UGB has 643 net buildable acres with a capacity for 2,764 dwelling units.
Exhibit 2. Net Buildable Acreage and Housing Capacity by Plan Designations, Ashland UGB, 2020
Source: City of Ashland Buildable Lands Inventory (2019) and City of Ashland building permit data.
How much land will be required for housing?
In total, Ashland is forecast to grow by 858 dwelling units and has capacity for 2,764 dwelling
units. Ashland has capacity for 1,455 dwelling units within its city limits and 1,299 dwelling
units in the urbanizing area. Accommodating this growth will require annexing land into the
city limits.
Exhibit 3 shows a comparison of Ashland’s land capacity within the urban growth boundary
with demand for new units (including land for group quarters). It shows that Ashland has
enough land in all of its Plan Designations to accommodate the forecast of housing growth.
Low Density Residential: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 764 dwelling units (with
368 units inside City Limits and 396 units inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Suburban Residential: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 26 dwelling units.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis iv
Normal Neighborhood: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 224 dwelling units.
Multifamily Residential: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 158 dwelling units.
High Density Residential: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 15 dwelling units.
Croman Mill District: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 209 dwelling units (with 49
units inside City Limits and 160 units inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Commercial and Employment: Ashland has a surplus capacity of 443 dwelling units
(with 389 units inside City Limits and 54 units inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Exhibit 3. Final comparison of capacity of existing residential land with demand for new dwelling
units and land surplus or deficit, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest.
*Note: Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single family residential, and North Mountain
Commercial & Employment includes Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University
What are the key findings of the Housing CapacityAnalysis?
The key findings of the Ashland’s Housing Capacity Analysis are that:
Ashland has sufficient land to accommodate its housing forecast between 2021 and
2041 and can accommodate growth (858 dwelling units) over the next 20-years with a
surplus of capacity. Some development in the Suburban Residential, Normal
Neighborhood, and Multifamily Residential Plan Designations will need to be
accommodated in the City’s urban growth boundary, outside the City Limits.
Ashland is planning for the continued growth of single-family detached units,
however, more opportunities for multifamily and single-family attached will need to
occur to meet the City’s needs. The factors driving the shift in types of housing needed
in Ashland include changes in demographics and decreases in housing affordability.
The aging of the baby boomers and the household formation of the millennials and
Generation Z will drive demand for renter- and owner-occupied housing, such as single-
family detached housing, townhouses, duplexes, tri- and quad-plexes, and apartments.
Both groups may prefer housing in walkable neighborhoods, with access to services.
Over the 2021 to 2041 period, Ashland will need to plan for more multifamily
dwelling units in the future to meet the City’s housing needs. Historically, 66% of
Ashland’s housing was single-family detached. While 35% of new housing in Ashland is
forecast to be single-family detached, the City will need to provide opportunities for the
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis v
development of new single-family attached (10% of new housing); duplex, triplex, and
quadplex housing (10% of new housing); and multifamily units (35% of new housing).
Ashland has unmet needs for affordable housing. Ashland has unmet housing needs
for households with extremely-low and very-low-income households, as well as
households with low- and middle-income. The forecast shows 273 of Ashland’s new
households will have incomes of $32,600 (in 2019 dollars) or less. These households can
afford monthly housing costs of $820, which is considerably below market rate rents
starting around $1,145 for a two-bedroom unit. About 127 of Ashland’s new households
will have incomes between $32,600 and $52,000 and can afford $820 to $1,300 in monthly
housing costs.
Ashland will need more diverse housing types to meet these housing needs and
address demographic changes. These housing types include rental and ownership
opportunities such as: small single-family detached housing, accessory dwelling units,
cottage housing, townhouses, duplexes, tri- and quad-plexes, and apartments. Without
the diversification of housing types, lack of affordability will continue to be a problem,
possibly growing in the future if incomes continue to grow at a slower rate than housing
costs.
The memorandum Ashland Housing Strategy (Appendix A of this report) was developed to
present recommendations for policy changes to address Ashland’s unmet housing needs. Based
on this Housing Capacity Analysis report and using the Ashland Housing Strategy for guidance,
Ashland will need to develop a Housing Production Strategy within one year of adoption of
this report. The Housing Production Strategy will further describe Ashland’s housing needs
based on the information in this report and will include specific strategies to address Ashland’s
unmet housing needs.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis vi
1.Introduction
This report presents Ashland’s Housing Capacity Analysis for the 2021 to 2041 period. It is
intended to comply with statewide planning policies that govern planning for housing and
residential development, including Goal 10 (Housing) and OAR 660 Division 8. The methods
used for this study generally follow the Planning for Residential Growth guidebook, published by
the Oregon Transportation and Growth Management Program (1996).
Over the last two decades, Ashland has changed considerably. The city grew from 19,522
people in 2000 to 20,960 people in 2019, an addition of 1,438 people or 7% growth.
Housing affordability is a challenge across Jackson County, with housing costs in Ashland
considerably above regional averages. In 2020, the median home sales price in Ashland was
$434,000, more than $130,000 above the median sales prices for Medford, Central Point, and
other cities in the region. The only other city with sales prices comparable to Ashland was
Jacksonville. In addition, 46% of Ashland’s households were cost burdened, above the county
average of 39% of households. Cost burden in Ashland increased from 41% in 2000 to 46% in
2014-2018, based on data from the Census’ American Community Survey.
The Alameda wildfire increased the regional need for affordable housing by destroying about
2,549 dwellings in September 2020. The Alameda fire burned from north Ashland to just south
3
These losses
of Medford, with the cities of Phoenix and Talent losing the majority of housing.
increased regional need for affordable housing and overall pressure on the Ashland housing
market.
This report provides Ashland with a factual basis to update the Housing Element of the City’s
Comprehensive Plan and zoning code and to support future planning efforts related to housing
and options for addressing unmet housing needs in Ashland. This report provides information
to inform future planning efforts, including development and redevelopment. This report also
provides the City with information about the housing market in Ashland and describes the
factors that will affect future housing demand in Ashland, such as changing demographics. This
analysis will help decision makers understand whether Ashland has enough land to
accommodate growth over the next 20 years.
3
Based on information from Jackson County.
https://jcgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/9c9c796ff7ff44c0b1e5d21f2d71c9fb
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 1
Framework for aHousing CapacityAnalysis
Housing is a bundle of services for which people are willing to pay: shelter, certainly, but also
proximity to other attractions (job, shopping, recreation), amenities (type and quality of fixtures
and appliances, landscaping, views), prestige, and access to public services (quality of schools).
Because it is impossible to maximize all these services and simultaneously minimize costs,
households must, and do, make tradeoffs. What they can get for their money is influenced both
by economic forces and government policy. Moreover, different households will value what
they can get differently. They will have different preferences, which in turn are a function of
many factors like income, age of household head, number of people and children in the
household, number of workers and job locations, number of automobiles, and so on.
The majority of housing in the United States is built by the private market, and therefore
responds to economic and market factors. These economic and market forces have resulted in
the production of units that have housed most of our nation’s households. However, they have
consistently left lower-income communities and communities of color with fewer housing
options and competition for a limited supply of affordable housing units. The last two decades
have seen significant increases in housing costs, with much slower growth in household
income, resulting in increasing unmet need for affordable housing.
This report provides information about how the choices of individual households and the
housing market in Jackson County and Ashland have interacted, focusing on implications for
future housing need in Ashland over the 2021 to 2041 period. This report and the Ashland
Housing Strategy memorandum discuss ways that the City of Ashland’s policies can influence
future housing development and consider opportunities to increase access to affordable
housing for lower-income communities and communities of color as well as housing needs for
all residents of Ashland.
Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing
Oregon has long been a national leader in planning to accommodate growth. The state
mandates local government compliance with 19 statewide planning goals which include public
engagement, planning for natural areas, planning for housing, and planning for adequate land
to support economic development and industry growth, among others. Oregon’s Goal 10
requires each city to develop a Housing Capacity Analysis, which must tie twenty years of
projected household growth to units of varying densities, and then determine whether there is
adequate land inside the city’s urban growth boundary to accommodate those units. Goal 10
directs cities to plan for “…housing that meets the housing needs of households of all income
levels.” Oregon’s statewide land use planning system requires one of the most comprehensive
approaches to planning for housing in the country.
Goal 10 provides guidelines for local governments to follow in developing their local
comprehensive land use plans and implementing policies. At a minimum, local housing policies
must meet the requirements of Goal 10 and the statutes and administrative rules that
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 2
4
implement it (ORS 197.295 to 197.314, ORS 197.475 to 197.490, and OAR 600-008). Goal 10
requires incorporated cities to complete an inventory of buildable residential lands. Goal 10 also
requires cities to encourage the numbers of housing units in price and rent ranges
commensurate with the financial capabilities of its households.
Goal 10 defines needed housing types as “all housing on land zoned for residential use or
mixed residential and commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing
within an urban growth boundary at price ranges and rent levels that are affordable to
households within the county with a variety of incomes, including but not limited to
households with low-incomes, very low-incomes and extremely low-incomes.” ORS 197.303
defines needed housing types:
(a) Housing that includes, but is not limited to, attached and detached single-family housing
and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy.
5
(b) Government assisted housing.
(c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490.
(d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential
use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions.
(e) Housing for farmworkers.
DLCD provides guidance on conducting a Housing Capacity Analysis in the document
Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon’s Urban Areas, referred to as the
Workbook.
Ashland must identify needs for all of the housing types listed above as well as adopt policies
that increase the likelihood that needed housing types will be developed. This Housing
Capacity Analysis was developed to meet the requirements of Goal 10 and its implementing
administrative rules and statutes.
Public Process
At the broadest level, the purpose of the project was to understand how much Ashland will
grow over the next 20 years. The project can be broken into two components (1) technical
analysis, and (2) housing strategies. Both benefited from public input. The technical analysis
required a broad range of assumptions that influence the outcomes; the housing strategy is a
series of high-level policy choices that will affect Ashland residents.
4
ORS 197.296 only applies to cities with populations over 25,000, which does not currently include Ashland based on
Portland State University’s estimate of 20,960 people within the Ashland UGB in 2019.
5
Government assisted housing can be any housing type listed in ORS 197.303 (a), (c), or (d).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 3
The intent of the public process was to establish broad public engagement throughout the
project as work occurs. Public engagement was accomplished through various avenues. We
discuss the three primary avenues below.
Project Advisory Committee Engagement
The City of Ashland and ECONorthwest solicited public input from an ad-hoc Project Advisory
Committee. The Project Advisory Committee met four times to discuss project assumptions,
6
The project relied on the Project Advisory Committee to review draft
results, and implications.
products and provide input at key points (e.g., before recommendations and decisions were
made and before draft work products were finalized).
The project required many assumptions and policy choices that the committee needed to vet
and agree upon, as these choices affect current and future residents. In short, local review and
community input were essential to developing a locally appropriate and actionable Housing
Capacity Analysis and housing strategy.
Housing and Human Services Commission(HHSC)and Planning Commission Meetings
The City of Ashland and ECONorthwest solicited input on the preliminary results of the
Housing Capacity Analysis from the HHSC and the Planning Commission at a joint meeting
held on January 28, 2021. The process also involved another meeting with the Planning
Commission on March 23, 2021 and the HHSC on March 25, 2021 to gather their input on the
preliminary results of Housing Capacity Analysis.
Public Engagement
The City of Ashland and ECONorthwest solicited input from the general public at a virtual
open house, held on-line in April. The open house provided information about Ashland’s
housing market and inquired about the community’s housing needs, preferences, and values.
The Virtual Open House was open from April 1 to April 15, 2021. About 394 people attended
the open house and 267 people responded to the survey. The City advertised the Open House
through Engage Ashland, on the City’s website as a news item, and on Facebook and Twitter.
The local news station (KDRV) also had a segment about the Open House.
6
Project Advisory Committee meeting dates: December 7, 2020; January 11, 2021; March 1, 2021; and April 26, 2021.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 4
Organization of this Report
The rest of this document is organized as follows:
Chapter 2. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory presents the methodology and results
of Ashland’s inventory of residential land.
Chapter 3. Historical and Recent Development Trends summarizes the state, regional,
and local housing market trends affecting Ashland’s housing market.
Chapter 4. Demographic and Other Factors Affecting Residential Development in
Ashland presents factors that affect housing need in Ashland, focusing on the key
determinants of housing need: age, income, and household composition. This chapter also
describes housing affordability in Ashland relative to the larger region.
Chapter 5. Housing Need in Ashland presents the forecast for housing growth in
Ashland, describing housing need by density ranges and income levels.
Chapter 6. Residential Land Sufficiency in Ashland estimates Ashland’s residential land
sufficiency needed to accommodate expected growth over the planning period.
Appendix A: Ashland’s Housing Strategy
Appendix B: City of Ashland’s 2019 Buildable Lands Inventory
Appendix C: Additional Buildable Lands and Housing Capacity Information
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 5
2.Residential Buildable Lands Inventory
This chapter presents Ashland’s residential buildable lands inventory (BLI). A BLI estimates the
number of unconstrained buildable acres a jurisdiction has within its urban growth boundary
(UGB). The methodology and detailed results of the Ashland BLI are documented in the report
7
which was adopted by the City of Ashland in
City of Ashland Buildable Lands Inventory (2019),
8
January 2020 (see Appendix B for more information).
The Housing Capacity Analysis uses the inventory to assess whether Ashland has sufficient
land within its Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate future population growth and
9
resulting need for new housing.The legal requirements that govern the BLI for the City of
Ashland are defined in Statewide Planning Goal 10 and OAR 660-008.
Results of the 2019 Inventory
In 2019, the City of Ashland’s Department of Community Development prepared the City’s BLI.
10
buildable acres in
The 2019 analysis determined it had approximately 648 net, unconstrained,
Plan Designations that allow housing outright with clear and objective standards. These 648
acres result in a capacity of 2,847 dwelling units. About 26% of Ashland’s housing capacity is
located in its Single-Family Residential Plan Designation.
Exhibit 4 presents the results from the 2019 analysis and Exhibit 5 shows the results of the 2019
BLI in a map.
7
The report can be downloaded from the City’s website: https://www.ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=11740
8
Resolution No. 2020-01
9
Additional information about Ashland’s buildable lands (1) inside City Limits and (2) outside City Limits and
inside the UGB is presented in Appendix C.
10
Land constraints taken into account: slopes greater than 35%, lands within the floodway or flood plain, and lands
within resource protection areas.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 6
Exhibit 4. Net Buildable Acreage and Housing Capacity by Plan Designations, Ashland UGB, 2019
Source: City of Ashland Buildable Lands Inventory, 2019.
Exhibit 5. Buildable Land, Ashland UGB, 2019
Source: City of Ashland Buildable Lands Inventory (2019) and City of Ashland building permit data.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 7
2020 Inventory Update
ECONorthwest worked with City staff to update the 2019 BLI results based on development
that was permitted between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020, which accounted for housing
development that occurred after development of the 2019 BLI.
In the July 2019 – June 2020 period, the City permitted 83 dwelling units, which consumed
about 5.8 net acres of buildable land. ECONorthwest subtracted these acres of land and capacity
for new housing from the 2019 results, as shown in Exhibit 6. Thus, the 2020 BLI results
determined that Ashland’s UGB has 643 net buildable acres with a capacity for 2,764 dwelling
units.
Exhibit 6. Net Buildable Acreage and Housing Capacity by Plan Designations, Ashland UGB, 2020
Source: City of Ashland Buildable Lands Inventory (2019) and City of Ashland building permit data.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 8
3.Historical and Recent Development Trends
Analysis of historical development trends in Ashland provides insight into the functioning of
the local housing market. The mix of housing types and densities, in particular, are key
variables in forecasting the capacity of residential land to accommodate new housing and to
forecast future land need. The specific steps are described in Task 2 of the DLCD Planning for
Residential Lands Workbook as:
1.Determine the time period for which the data will be analyzed.
2.Identify types of housing to address (all needed housing types).
3.Evaluate permit/subdivision data to calculate the actual mix, average actual gross
density, and average actual net density of all housing types.
This Housing Capacity Analysis examines changes in Ashland’s housing market from 2000 to
2018. We selected this time period because the period provides information about Ashland’s
housing market before and after the national housing market bubble’s growth and deflation.
and the more recent increase in housing costs. Data about Ashland’s housing market during this
period is readily available from sources such as the Census and the City building permit
database.
The Housing Capacity Analysis presents information about residential development by housing
type. There are multiple ways that housing types can be grouped. For example, they can be
grouped by:
1.Structure type (e.g., single-family detached, apartments, etc.).
2.Tenure (e.g., distinguishing unit type by owner or renter units).
3.Housing affordability (e.g., subsidized housing or units affordable at given income
levels).
4.Some combination of these categories.
For the purposes of this study, we grouped housing types based on: (1) whether the structure is
stand-alone or attached to another structure and (2) the number of dwelling units in each
structure. The housing types used in this analysis are consistent with needed housing types as
11
defined in ORS 197.303:
Single-family detached includes single-family detached units, manufactured homes on
lots and in mobile home parks, and accessory dwelling units (accessory residential
units).
11
ORS 197.303 defines needed housing as “…all housing on land zoned for residential use or mixed residential and
commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at price
ranges and rent levels that are affordable to households within the county with a variety of incomes.”
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 9
Single-family attached is all structures with a common wall where each dwelling unit
occupies a separate lot, such as row houses or townhouses.
Multifamily is all attached structures (e.g., duplexes, tri-plexes, quad-plexes, and
structures with five or more units) other than single-family detached units,
manufactured units, or single-family attached units.
In Ashland, government assisted housing (ORS 197.303(b)) and housing for farmworkers (ORS
197.303(e)) can be any of the housing types listed above. Analysis within this report discusses
housing affordability at a variety of incomes, as required in ORS 197.303.
Data Used in this Analysis
Throughout this analysis(including the subsequent Chapter 4), we used data from multiple
well-recognized and reliable data sources. One of the key sources for housing and household
data is the U.S. Census. This report primarily uses data from three Census sources:
The Decennial Census, which is completed every ten years and is a survey of all
households in the U.S. The Decennial Census is considered the best available data for
information such as demographics (e.g., number of people, age distribution, or ethnic or
racial composition), household characteristics (e.g., household size and composition),
and housing occupancy characteristics. As of 2010, the Decennial Census does not collect
more detailed household information, such as income, housing costs, housing
characteristics, and other important household information. Decennial Census data is
available for 2000 and 2010.
The American Community Survey (ACS), which is completed every year and is a
sample of households in the U.S. The ACS collects detailed information about
households, including demographics (e.g., number of people, age distribution, ethnic or
racial composition, country of origin, language spoken at home, and educational
attainment), household characteristics (e.g., household size and composition), housing
characteristics (e.g., type of housing unit, year unit built, or number of bedrooms),
housing costs (e.g., rent, mortgage, utility, and insurance), housing value, income, and
other characteristics.
Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), which is a custom tabulation
of American Community Survey (ACS) data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). CHAS data show the extent of
housing problems and housing needs, particularly for low-income households. CHAS
data are typically used by local governments as part of their consolidated planning work
to plan how to spend HUD funds and by HUD to distribute grant funds. The most up-
to-date CHAS data covers the 2013-2017 period, which is a year older than the most
recent ACS data for the 2014-2018 period.
This report uses data from the 2014-2018 and 2015-2019 ACSs for Ashland. Where information
is available and relevant, we report information from the 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 10
Among other data points, this report includes data from the United States Department of
Housing and Urban Development, Oregon Department of Housing and Community Services,
Property Radar, Costar, and the City of Ashland.
The foundation of the Housing Capacity Analysis is the population forecast for Ashland from
12
The forecast is prepared by the Portland State
the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
University Population Research Center. Using this population forecast is required under State
13
law for planning purposes like developing a housing capacity analysis.
14
It is worth commenting on the methods used for the American Community Survey. The
American Community Survey (ACS) is a national survey that uses continuous measurement
methods. It uses a sample of about 3.54 million households to produce annually updated
estimates for the same small areas (census tracts and block groups) formerly surveyed via the
decennial census long-form sample. It is also important to keep in mind that all ACS data are
estimates that are subject to sample variability. This variability is referred to as “sampling
error” and is expressed as a band or “margin of error” (MOE) around the estimate.
This report uses Census and ACS data because, despite the inherent methodological limits, they
represent the most thorough and accurate data available to assess housing needs. We consider
these limitations in making interpretations of the data and have strived not to draw conclusions
beyond the quality of the data.
12
The Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs
2018-2068 can be found at this location:
https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1042&context=opfp
13
In 2015, the Land Conservation and Development Commission adopted rules (OAR 660-032) to require the use of
PSU’s Population Research Center’s forecasts for comprehensive planning purposes by cities within Oregon.
14
A thorough description of the ACS can be found in the Census Bureau’s publication “What Local Governments
Need to Know.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2009/acs/state-and-local.html
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 11
Trends in Housing Mix
This section provides an overview of changes in the mix of housing types in Ashland and
compares Ashland to Jackson County and to Oregon. These trends demonstrate the types of
housing developed in the area historically. Unless otherwise noted, this chapter uses data from
the 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census and the 2014-2018 American Community Survey 5-Year
Estimates.
This section shows the following trends in housing mix in Ashland:
Ashland’s housing stock is predominantly single-family detached housing units.
Sixty-six percent of Ashland’s housing stock is single-family detached housing, 25% is
multifamily housing (inclusive of smaller and larger multifamily structures), and 9% is
single-family attached (e.g., townhouses).
Since 2000, Ashland’s housing mix has remained relatively static. Ashland’s housing
stock grew by about 18% (about 1,634 new units) between 2000 and the 2014-2018
period, with share of single-family detached housing increasing from 62% to 66% of all
housing.
Single-family housing accounted for more than half of new housing growth in
Ashland between fiscal year 2010-11 and fiscal year 2019-20. About 63% of new
housing permitted in that time was for single-family housing units (417 dwelling units),
25% was for multifamily housing (163 dwelling units), and 13% was for accessory
dwelling units (83 dwelling units).
Housing Mix
The total number of dwelling Exhibit 7. Total Dwelling Units, Ashland, 2000 and 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, SF3 (Table H030) and
units in Ashland increased by
2014-2018 ACS (Table B25024).
18% from 2000 2014-2018.
In this time, Ashland added
1,634 units.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 12
Sixty-sixpercentof Ashland’s Exhibit 8.Housing Mix, Ashland, JacksonCounty, andOregon,
housing stock was single-2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25024.
family detached.
Ashland had a larger share of
multifamily housing than
Jackson County.
From 2000 to 2014-2018, Exhibit 9. Change in Housing Mix, Ashland, 2000 and 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, SF3 Table H030, and
the share of multifamily
2014-2018 ACS Table B25024.
housing (with five or more
units per structure)
decreased by 6% in Ashland.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 13
Exhibit 10 shows the types of dwelling units by race and ethnicity in Ashland. It shows that
households that identified as Asian Alone were most likely to live in single-family detached
housing (78%). Households that identified as Black/African American Alone or Some other Race
Alone were most likely to live in multifamily housing. Of any race, about 41% of the households
that identified as Latino lived in single-family detached housing.
Exhibit 10 includes an indication of margin of error (the “whisker” lines shown in the graph).
The number of people of color in Ashland is relatively small. Exhibit 30 shows that groups like
Black or American Indian account for less than 2% of residents in Ashland. Exhibit 10 shows a
high margin of error in the data for these groups, with either a long “whisker” line or an
asterisk (*) to indicate that the margin of error exceeds 50% (indicating high uncertainty about
the data).
The take-away point from Exhibit 10 is that some people of color (not including Asians) are
more likely to live in multifamily housing than the Ashland average in Exhibit 8, which shows
that 14% of households live in multifamily housing.
Exhibit 10. Occupied Housing Structure by Race and Ethnicity, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25032 A-I.
Note: Margin of errors marked with an asterisk (*) indicate the value exceeds 50%.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 14
Building Permits
Exhibit 11 shows dwelling units permitted in Ashland over the fiscal year 2010-2011 to 2019-
2020 period. In this time, Ashland issued permits for 663 new dwelling units, at an annual
average of 66 per year. Of these 663 permits, 63% were for single-family units, 25% were for
multifamily units, and 13% were for accessory dwelling units.
Exhibit 11. Building Permits Issued for New Residential Construction by Type of Unit, Ashland, Fiscal
Year 2010-11 through Fiscal Year 2019-20
Source: City of Ashland, Residential Building Permit Database.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 15
Trends in Tenure
Housing tenure describes whether a dwelling is owner- or renter-occupied. This section shows:
Homeownership rates in Ashland were lower than rates in Jackson County and
Oregon. About 54% of Ashland’s households owned their home in the 2014-2018 period.
In comparison, 63% of Jackson County households and 62% of Oregon households were
homeowners in that time.
Homeownership rates in Ashland increased between 2000 and 2014-2018. In 2000, 52%
of Ashland households were homeowners. This increased to 54% in 2014-2018.
The majority of Ashland homeowners (88%) lived in single-family detached housing,
while almost half of renters (51%) live in some form of multifamily housing (duplexes
on through units in larger multifamily structures).
The homeownership rate in Exhibit 12. Tenure, Occupied Units, Ashland, 2000 - 2014-18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census SF1 Table H004, 2010
Ashland increased by 2%
Decennial Census SF1 Table H4, 2014-2018 ACS Table B24003.
from 2000 to 2014-2018.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 16
Ashland hada lower Exhibit 13. Tenure, Occupied Units, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B24003.
homeownership rate than
Jackson County and
Oregon.
The majority of Exhibit 14. Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25032.
homeowners (88%) lived in
single-family detached
housing.
In comparison, less than
half of Ashland’s renters
(40%) lived in single-family
detached housing; over half
lived in some form of
multifamily housing (51%)
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 17
Exhibit 15 shows housing tenure by race and ethnicity of Ashland’s households. Households
that identified as White Alone or Asian Alone had the highest rates of home ownership (55%
and 42%). About 34% of households who identified as Latino (of any race) owned their own
home.
Exhibit 15 includes an indication of margin of error (the “whisker” lines shown in the graph).
The number of people of color in Ashland is relatively small. Exhibit 30 shows that groups like
Black for about 1.4% of residents of Ashland. Exhibit 15 shows a high margin of error in the
data for Black and “some other race” groupings, with either a long “whisker” line or an asterisk
(*) to indicate that the margin of error exceeds 50% (indicating high uncertainty about the data).
The take-away point from asterisk is that some people of color are more likely to rent their
housing than the Ashland average in Exhibit 13, which shows that 54% of Ashland’s
households are homeowners.
Exhibit 15. Tenure by Race and Ethnicity, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Tables B25003A-I.
Note: Margin of errors marked with an asterisk (*) indicate the value exceeds 50%.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 18
Vacancy Rates
Housing vacancy is a measure of housing that is available to prospective renters and buyers. It
is also a measure of unutilized housing stock. The Census defines vacancy as: "Unoccupied
housing units… determined by the terms under which the unit may be occupied, e.g., for rent,
for sale, or for seasonal use only." The 2010 Census identified vacancy through an enumeration,
separate from (but related to) the survey of households. Enumerators are obtained using
information from property owners and managers, neighbors, rental agents, and others.
According to the 2014-2018 Census, the vacancy rate in Ashland was 8.3%, compared to 7.5 %
for Jackson County and 9.1% for Oregon. About 30% of Ashland’s vacant units are vacant for
seasonal, recreational, or other occasional use reasons (see Exhibit 16).
Real estate professionals who work in Ashland indicate that vacancy rates in 2020 and 2021 are
1% or below for housing for sale or for rent. The difference between this vacancy rate and the
one reported by the Census (8.3%) is:
Time period. The vacancy rate from the Census is reported for the 2014 through 2018
period, while real estate professionals are focused on more recent vacancy rates.
Type of vacancy. The vacancy rate from the Census includes vacancies for many
reasons, including vacant for rent or sales but also vacant for seasonal/recreational uses
(e.g., second homes) and vacant for migrant workers.
Exhibit 16. Vacancy by Reason, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25004.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 19
Government-Assisted Housing
Governmental agencies and nonprofit organizations offer a range of housing assistance to low-
and moderate-income households renting or purchasing a home. There are 10 government-
assisted housing developments in Ashland.
Exhibit 17. Government Assisted Housing, Ashland, 2019
Source: Oregon Health Authority. (November 2019). Affordable Housing Inventory in Oregon.
The Jackson County Continuum of Care (CoC) region has 133 emergency shelter beds, 272
transitional shelter beds, and 857 permanently supportive housing beds supporting persons
experiencing homelessness in the Jackson County region.
Exhibit 18. Facilities and Housing Targeted to Households Experiencing Homelessness,
Medford/Ashland/Jackson County Continuum of Care Region, 2019
Source: HUD 2019 Continuum of Care Homeless Assistance Programs, Housing Inventory Count Report, Medford,
Ashland/Jackson County CoC (from Medford’s 2020-2024 Consolidated Plan).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 20
Manufactured Homes
Manufactured homes provide a source of affordable housing in Ashland. They provide a form
of homeownership that can be made available to low- and moderate-income households. Cities
are required to plan for manufactured homes—both on lots and in parks (ORS 197.475-492).
Generally, manufactured homes in parks are owned by the occupants who pay rent for the
space. Monthly housing costs are typically lower for a homeowner in a manufactured home
park for several reasons, including the fact that property taxes levied on the value of the land
are paid by the property owner, rather than the manufactured homeowner. The value of the
manufactured home generally does not appreciate the way a conventional home would,
however. Manufactured homeowners in parks are also subject to the mercy of the property
owner in terms of rent rates and increases. It is generally not within the means of a
manufactured homeowner to relocate to another manufactured home to escape rent increases.
Living in a park is desirable to some homeowners because it can provide a more secure
community with on-site managers and amenities, such as laundry and recreation facilities.
OAR 197.480(4) requires cities to inventory the mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks
sited in areas planned and zoned or generally used for commercial, industrial, or high-density
residential development. Exhibit 19 presents the inventory of mobile and manufactured home
parks within Ashland as of November 2020. It shows that Ashland had a total of 255
manufactured home spaces in five communities within the UGB. As of November 2020, about
21 spaces were vacant.
Exhibit 19. Inventory of Mobile/Manufactured Home Parks, Ashland, 2020
Source: Oregon Manufactured Dwelling Park Directory as of November 2020.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 21
4.Demographic and Other Factors Affecting
Residential Development in Ashland
Demographic trends are important for a thorough understanding of the dynamics of the
Ashland housing market. Ashland exists in a regional economy; trends in the region impact the
local housing market. This chapter documents demographic, socioeconomic, and other trends
relevant to Ashland at the national, state, and regional levels.
Demographic trends provide a context for growth in a region; factors such as age, income,
migration, and other trends show how communities have grown and how they will shape
future growth. To provide context, we compare Ashland to Jackson County and Oregon. We
also compare Ashland to nearby cities where appropriate. Characteristics such as age and
ethnicity are indicators of how the population has grown in the past and provide insight into
factors that may affect future growth.
A recommended approach to conducting a Housing Capacity Analysis is described in Planning
for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon’s Urban Areas, the Department of Land
Conservation and Development’s guidebook on local housing needs studies. As described in
the workbook, the specific steps in the Housing Capacity Analysis are:
1.Project the number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years.
2.Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic and economic trends and factors
that may affect the 20-year projection of structure type mix.
3.Describe the demographic characteristics of the population and, if possible, the housing
trends that relate to demand for different types of housing.
4.Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected
households based on household income.
5.Determine the needed housing mix and density ranges for each Plan Designation and
the average needed net density for all structure types.
6.Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type.
This chapter presents data to address steps 2, 3, and 4 in this list. Chapter 5 presents data to
address steps 1, 5, and 6 in this list.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 22
Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Housing
15
Choice
Analysts typically describe housing demand as the preferences for different types of housing
(e.g., single-family detached or apartment) and the ability to pay for that housing (the ability to
exercise those preferences in a housing market by purchasing or renting housing; in other
words, income or wealth).
Many demographic and socioeconomic variables affect housing choice. However, the literature
about housing markets finds that age of the householder, size of the household, and household
income are most strongly correlated with housing choice.
Age of householder is the age of the person identified (in the Census) as the head of
household. Households make different housing choices at different stages of life. This
chapter discusses generational trends, such as housing preferences of baby boomers
(people born from about 1946 to 1964), millennials (people born from about 1980 to
2000), and Generation Z (people born after 1997).
Size of household is the number of people living in the household. Younger and older
people are more likely to live in single-person households. People in their middle years
are more likely to live in multi-person households (often with children).
Household income is probably the most important determinant of housing choice.
Income is strongly related to the type of housing a household chooses (e.g., single-family
detached, duplex, or a building with more than five units) and to household tenure (e.g.,
rent or own).
This chapter focuses on these factors, presenting data that suggests how changes to these factors
may affect housing need in Ashland over the next 20 years.
15
The research in this chapter is based on numerous articles and sources of information about housing, including:
D. Myers and S. Ryu, Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble, Journal of the American
Planning Association, Winter 2008.
Davis, Hibbits, & Midghal Research, “Metro Residential Preference Survey,” May 2014.
L. Lachman and D. Brett, Generation Y: America’s New Housing Wave, Urban Land Institute, 2010.
George Galster. People Versus Place, People and Place, or More? New Directions for Housing Policy,
Housing Policy Debate, 2017.
Herbert, Christopher and Hrabchak Molinsky. “Meeting the Housing Needs of an Aging Population,” 2015.
J. McIlwain, Housing in America: The New Decade, Urban Land Institute, 2010.
Schuetz, Jenny. Who is the new face of American homeownership? Brookings, 2017.
The American Planning Association, “Investing in Place; Two generations’ view on the future of
communities,” 2014.
Transportation for America, “Access to Public Transportation a Top Criterion for Millennials When
Deciding Where to Live, New Survey Shows,” 2014.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 23
16
National Trends
This brief summary on national housing trends builds on previous work by ECONorthwest as
well as Urban Land Institute (ULI) reports and conclusions from The State of the Nation’s Housing
report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The Harvard report
(2020) summarizes the national housing outlook as follows:
Given the profound impact of the pandemic on how US households live and work,
there is plenty of reason to believe that it could bring meaningful changes to housing
markets. With millions of people forced to work remotely, employers and employees
alike may find this an attractive option even after the pandemic ends. If so, demand
would likely increase for homes large enough to provide office space, as well as easy
access to outdoor spaces to exercise and socialize. And if long commutes are no longer
everyday requirements, many households may move to lower-density areas where
housing is less expensive. However, a major shift in residential development patterns
is far from certain. What is certain is that the need for more housing of all types,
locations, and price points will persist. In the near term, the outlook for housing
markets is bright, fueled by very low interest rates as well as unabated demand from
more affluent households. If the pandemic persists, however, it will remain a serious
drag on the labor market and wage growth, and ultimately on household formations.
Still, the pandemic’s negative impact on markets should be relatively muted given
historically tight conditions on the supply side.
However, challenges to a strong domestic housing market remain. Rising mortgage rates, the
tight credit market, and a limited inventory of entry-level homes make housing unaffordable for
many Americans, especially younger Americans. In addition to rising housing costs, wages
have also failed to keep pace, worsening affordability pressures. Single-family and multifamily
housing supply remains tight, which compounds affordability issues. The State of the Nation’s
Housing report emphasizes the importance of government assistance and intervention to keep
housing affordable moving forward. Several challenges and trends shaping the housing market
are summarized below:
Bounce back in residential construction led by single-family starts. New construction
made a sharp comeback in summer 2020 led by single-family construction. Single-family
starts in 2020 began at about a 900,000-unit annual rate (the fastest pace since the Great
Recession), before dipping to a below 700,000-unit annual rate in April due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. Then, single-family starts hit a 1.1-million-unit annual rate in
September 2020—marking it as the strongest month for single-family homebuilding in
over 13 years. Multifamily unit starts also continued to climb, increasing by 7.5% from
about 374,000 units in 2018 to about 402,000 units in 2019. Notably, 2019 marked the first
16
These trends are based on information from (1) the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University’s
publication “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2020,” (2) Urban Land Institute, “2021 Emerging Trends in Real
Estate,” and (3) the U.S. Census.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 24
year since 1988 that multifamily starts topped 400,000. In 2019, home sales averaged 3.9
months which is below what is considered balanced (six months), with lower-cost and
moderate-cost homes experiencing the tightest inventories. The State of the Nation’s
Housing report cited lack of skilled labor, rising construction costs, land use regulations
(particularly density restrictions), and development fees as constraints on new
construction.
Demand shift from renting to owning. After years of decline, the national
homeownership rate increased slightly from 64.4% in 2018 to 64.6% in 2019. Trends
suggest the recent homeownership increases are among householders of all age groups;
however, new growth in homeownership since the post-Great Recession low of 2013
resulted from households with higher incomes. About 88% of net new growth (2013 to
2019) was among households with incomes of $150,000 or more.
Housing affordability. Despite a recent downward trend, 37.1 million American
households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2019 which is 5.6 million
more households than in 2001. Renter households experienced cost-burden at more than
double the rate of homeowners (46% versus 21%) with the number of cost-burdened
renters exceeding cost-burdened homeowners by 3.7 million in 2019. Affordability
challenges continued to move up the income ladder, with the share of cost-burdened
middle-income households increasing slightly from 2018 to 2019 even as the share of
low-income households experiencing cost burden declined slightly over the same
period. Households under the age of 25 and over the age of 85 had the highest rates of
housing cost burden.
Long-term growth and housing demand. The Joint Center for Housing Studies forecasts
that nationally, demand for new homes could total as many as 12 million units between
17
Much of the demand will come from baby boomers, millennials,
2018 and 2028.
18
Generation Z,and immigrants. The Urban Land Institute cites the trouble of
overbuilding in the luxury sector while demand is in mid-priced single-family houses
affordable to a larger buyer pool.
19
Growth in rehabilitation market.Aging housing stock and poor housing conditions
are growing concerns for jurisdictions across the United States. With almost 80% of the
nation’s housing stock at least 20 years old (and 40% at least 50 years old), Americans
are spending in excess of $400 billion per year on residential renovations and repairs. As
housing rehabilitation becomes the go-to solution to address housing conditions, the
17
The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The State of the Nation’s Housing 2019.
18
According to the Pew Research Center, Millennials were born between the years of 1981 to 1996 and Generation Z
were born between 1997 to 2012 (inclusive). Read more about generations and their definitions here:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/01/defining-generations-where-millennials-end-and-post-millennials-
begin/.
19
These findings are copied from: Joint Center for Housing Studies. (2019). Improving America’s Housing, Harvard
University. Retrieved from:
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/Harvard_JCHS_Improving_Americas_Housing_2019.pdf
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 25
home remodeling market has grown more than 50% since the recession ended—
generating 2.2% of national economic activity (in 2017).
Despite trends suggesting growth in the rehabilitation market, rising construction costs
and complex regulatory requirements pose barriers to rehabilitation. Lower-income
households or households on fixed incomes may defer maintenance for years due to
limited financial means, escalating rehabilitation costs. At a certain point, the cost of
improvements may outweigh the value of the structure, which may necessitate new
responses such as demolition or redevelopment.
20
Declining residential mobility.Residential mobility rates have declined steadily since
1980. Nearly one in five Americans moved every year in the 1980s, compared to one in
ten Americans between 2018 and 2019. While reasons for decline in residential mobility
are uncertain, contributing factors include demographic, housing affordability, and
labor-related changes. For instance, as baby boomers and millennials age, mobility rates
are expected to fall as people typically move less as they age. Harvard University’s
Research Brief (2020) also suggests that increasing housing costs could be preventing
people from moving if they are priced out of desired neighborhoods or if they prefer to
stay in current housing as prices rise around them. Other factors that may impact
mobility include the rise in dual-income households (which complicates job-related
moves), the rise in work-from-home options, and the decline in company-funded
relocations. While decline in mobility rates span all generations, they are greatest among
young adults and renters, two of the more traditionally mobile groups.
Changes in housing preference. Housing preference will be affected by changes in
demographics, most notably: the aging of baby boomers, housing demand from
millennials and Generation Z, and growth of immigrants.
Baby boomers. In 2020, the oldest members of this generation were in their seventies
and the youngest were in their fifties. The continued aging of the baby boomer
generation will affect the housing market. In particular, baby boomers will influence
housing preference and homeownership trends. Preferences (and needs) will vary
for boomers’ moving through their 60s, 70s, and 80s (and beyond). They will require
a range of housing opportunities. For example, “aging baby boomers are
increasingly renters-by-choice, \[preferring\] walkable, high-energy, culturally
21
evolved communities.” Many seniors are also moving to planned retirement
destinations earlier than expected as they experience the benefits of work-from-home
trends (accelerated by COVID-19). Additionally, the supply of caregivers is
decreasing as people in this cohort move from giving care to needing care, making
more inclusive, community-based, congregate settings more important. Senior
households earning different incomes may make distinctive housing choices. For
instance, low-income seniors may not have the financial resources to live out their
20
Frost, R. (2020). “Are Americans stuck in place? Declining residential mobility in the US.” Joint Center for Housing
Studies of Harvard University’s Research Brief.
21
Urban Land Institute. Emerging Trends in Real Estate, United States and Canada. 2019.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 26
years in a nursing home and may instead choose to downsize to smaller, more
affordable units. Seniors living in proximity to relatives may also choose to live in
multigenerational households.
Research shows that “older people in western countries prefer to live in their own
familiar environment as long as possible,” but aging in place does not only mean
22
A broader definition exists, which explains that
growing old in their own homes.
aging in place means “remaining in the current community and living in the
23
residence of one’s choice.” Some boomers are likely to stay in their home as long as
they are able, and some will prefer to move into other housing products, such as
multifamily housing or age-restricted housing developments, before they move into
to a dependent living facility or into a familial home. Moreover, “the aging of the
U.S. population, \[including\] the continued growth in the percentage of single-person
households, and the demand for a wider range of housing choices in communities
across the country is fueling interest in new forms of residential development,
24
including tiny houses.”
Millennials. Over the last several decades, young adults have increasingly lived in
25
However, as
multigenerational housing—more so than older demographics.
millennials move into their early to mid-thirties, postponement of family formation
is ending, and millennials are likely to prefer detached, single family homes in
suburban areas.
At the beginning of the 2007–2009 recession, millennials had only started forming
their own households. Today, millennials are driving much of the growth in new
households, albeit at slower rates than previous generations. As this generation
continues to progress into their homebuying years, they will seek out affordable,
modest-sized homes. This will prove challenging as the market for entry-level,
single-family homes has remained stagnant. Although construction of smaller homes
(less than 1,800 sq. ft.) increased in 2019, they only represented 24% of single-family
units.
Millennials’ average wealth may remain far below boomers and Gen Xers, and
student loan debt will continue to hinder consumer behavior and affect retirement
savings. As of 2020, millennials comprised 38% of home buyers, while Gen Xers
26
comprised 23% and Boomers 33%.“By the year 2061, it is estimated that $59 trillion
22
Vanleerberghe, Patricia, et al. (2017). The quality of life of older people aging in place: a literature review.
23
Ibid.
24
American Planning Association. Making Space for Tiny Houses, Quick Notes.
25
According to the Pew Research Center, in 1980, just 11% of adults aged 25 to 34 lived in a multigenerational family
household, and by 2008, 20% did (82% change). Comparatively, 17% of adults aged 65 and older lived in a
multigenerational family household, and by 2008, 20% did (18% change).
26
National Association of Realtors. (2020). 2020 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, March 2020.
Retrieved from: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/home-buyer-and-seller-
generational-trends
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 27
will be passed down from boomers to their beneficiaries,” presenting new
27
opportunities for millennials (as well as Gen Xers).
Generation Z.In 2020, the oldest members of GenerationZwere in their early 20sand
the youngest in their early childhood years. By 2040, Generation Z will be between
20 and 40 years old. While they are more racially and ethnically diverse than
previous generations, when it comes to key social and policy issues, they look very
much like millennials. Generation Z was set to inherit a strong economy and record-
28
low unemployment. However, because the long-term impacts of COVID-19 are
unknown, Generation Z may now be looking at an uncertain future.
While researchers do not yet know how Generation Z will behave in adulthood,
many expect they will follow patterns of previous generations. A segment is
expected to move to urban areas for reasons similar to previous cohorts (namely, the
benefits that employment, housing, and entertainment options bring when they are
in close proximity). However, this cohort is smaller than millennials (67 million vs.
72 million) which may lead to slowing real estate demand in city centers.
Immigrants. Research on foreign-born populations shows that immigrants, more than
native-born populations, prefer to live in multigenerational housing. Still,
immigration and increased homeownership among minorities could also play a key
role in accelerating household growth over the next 10 years. Current Population
Survey estimates indicate that the number of foreign-born households rose by nearly
400,000 annually between 2001 and 2007, and they accounted for nearly 30% of
overall household growth. Beginning in 2008, the influx of immigrants was
staunched by the effects of the Great Recession. After a period of declines, the
foreign-born population again began contributing to household growth, despite
decline in immigration rates in 2019. The Census Bureau’s estimates of net
immigration in 2019 indicate that 595,000 immigrants moved to the United States
from abroad, down from 1.2 million immigrants in 2017–2018. However, as noted in
The State of the Nation’s Housing (2020) report, “because the majority of immigrants
do not immediately form their own households upon arrival in the country, the drag
on household growth from lower immigration only becomes apparent over time.”
Diversity. The growing diversity of American households will have a large impact on
the domestic housing markets. Over the coming decade, minorities will make up a
larger share of young households and constitute an important source of demand for
both rental housing and small homes. The growing gap in homeownership rates
between Whites and Blacks, as well as the larger share of minority households that
are cost burdened warrants consideration. White households had a 73%
27
PNC. (n.d.). Ready or Not, Here Comes the Great Wealth Transfer. Retrieved from: https://www.pnc.com/en/about-
pnc/topics/pnc-pov/economy/wealth-transfer.html
28
Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020). On the cusp if adulthood and facing an uncertain future: what we know about gen
Z so far. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-
and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far/
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 28
homeownership rate in 2019 compared to a 43% rate for Black households. This 30-
percentage point gap is the largest disparity since 1983. Although homeownership
rates are increasing for some minorities, Black and Hispanic households are more
likely to have suffered disproportionate impacts of the pandemic and forced sales
could negatively impact homeownership rates. This, combined with systemic
discrimination in the housing and mortgage markets and lower incomes relative to
White households, leads to higher rates of cost burden for minorities —43% for
Blacks, 40% for Latino, 32% for Asians and 25% for Whites in 2019. As noted in The
State of the Nation’s Housing (2020) report “the impacts of the pandemic have shed
light on the growing racial and income disparities in the nation between the nation̦
s haves and have-nots are the legacy of decades of discriminatory practices in the
housing market and in the broader economy.”
Changes in housing characteristics. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Characteristics of New
Housing Report (2019) presents data that show trends in the characteristics of new
housing for the nation, state, and local areas. Several long-term trends in the
29
characteristics of housing are evident from the New Housing Report:
Larger single-family units on smaller lots. Between 1999 and 2019, the median size of
new single-family dwellings increased by 13% nationally, from 2,028 sq. ft. to 2,301
sq. ft., and 14% in the western region from 2,001 sq. ft. in 1999 to 2,279 sq. ft in 2019.
Moreover, the percentage of new units smaller than 1,400 sq. ft. nationally decreased
by more than half, from 16% in 1999 to 7% in 2019. The percentage of units greater
than 3,000 sq ft increased from 17% in 1999 to 25% of new one-family homes
completed in 2019. In addition to larger homes, a move toward smaller lot sizes was
seen nationally. Between 2009 and 2019, the percentage of lots less than 7,000 sq. ft.
increased from 25% to 33% of lots.
Based on national study about homebuying preferences that differ by race and
ethnicity, African Americans home buyers wanted a median unit size of 2,664 square
feet, compared to 2,347 sq ft for Hispanic buyers, 2,280 sq ft for Asian buyers, and
30
This same study found that minorities were less likely
2,197 sq ft for White buyers.
to want large lots.
Larger multifamily units. Between 1999 and 2019, the median size of new multifamily
dwelling units increased by 3.4% nationally. In the western region, the median size
decreased by 1.9%. Nationally, the percentage of new multifamily units with more
than 1,200 sq ft increased from 28% in 1999 to 35% in 2019 and increased from 25% to
27% in the western region.
Household amenities. Across the United States since 2013, an increasing number of
new units had air-conditioning (fluctuating year by year at over 90% for both new
29
U.S. Census Bureau, Highlights of Annual 2019 Characteristics of New Housing. Retrieved from:
https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html
30
Quint, Rose. (April 2014). What Home Buyers Really Want: Ethnic Preferences. National Association of Home Builders.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 29
single-family and multifamily units). In 2000, 93% of new single-family houses had
two or more bathrooms, compared to 96% in 2019. The share of new multifamily
units with two or more bathrooms decreased from 55% of new multifamily units to
45%. As of 2019, 92% of new single-family houses in the United States had garages
for one or more vehicles (from 89% in 2000). Additionally, if work-from-home
dynamics become a more permanent option, then there may be rising demand for
different housing amenities such as more space for home offices or larger yards for
recreation.
Shared amenities. Housing with shared amenities grew in popularity, as it may
improve space efficiencies and reduce per-unit costs/maintenance costs. Single-room
31
cottage clusters, cohousing developments, and multifamily
occupancies (SROs),
products are common housing types that take advantage of this trend. Shared
amenities may take many forms and include shared bathrooms, kitchens, other
home appliances (e.g., laundry facilities, outdoor grills), security systems, outdoor
areas (e.g., green spaces, pathways, gardens, rooftop lounges), fitness rooms,
32
swimming pools, tennis courts, and free parking.
State Trends
In August 2019, the State of Oregon passed statewide legislation – Oregon House Bill 2001 and
2003. House Bill 2001 (HB2001) required many Oregon communities to accommodate middle
housing within single-family neighborhoods. “Medium Cities”—those with 10,000 to 25,000
residents outside the Portland metro area—are required to allow duplexes on each lot or parcel
where a single-family home is allowed. “Large Cities”—those with
Middle housingis
over 25,000 residents and nearly all jurisdictions in the Portland
generally built at a similar
metro urban growth boundary (UGB)—must meet the same duplex
scale as single-family
homes but at higher
requirement as well as allow triplexes, fourplexes, townhomes, and
residential densities. It
cottage clusters in all areas that are zoned for residential use and
provides a range of
allow single-family homes. Note that middle housing types (other
housing choices at
different price points
than duplexes) do not have to be allowed on every lot or parcel that
within a community.
allows single-family homes, which means that larger cities maintain
some discretion.
House Bill 2003 (HB2003) envisions Oregon’s housing planning system is reformed from a
singular focus (on ensuring adequate available land) to a more comprehensive approach that
also achieves these critical goals: (1) support and enable the construction of sufficient units to
31
Single-room occupancies are residential properties with multiple single-room dwelling units occupied by a single
individual. From: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. (2001). Understanding SRO. Retrieved from:
https://www.hudexchange.info/resources/documents/Understanding-SRO.pdf
32
Urbsworks. (n.d.). Housing Choices Guidebook: A Visual Guide to Compact Housing Types in Northwest Oregon.
Retrieved from: https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/Publications/Housing-Choices-Booklet_DIGITAL.pdf
Saiz, Albert and Salazar, Arianna. (n.d.). Real Trends: The Future of Real Estate in the United States. Center for Real
Estate, Urban Economics Lab.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 30
accommodate current populations and projected household growth and (2) reduce geographic
disparities in access to housing (especially affordable and publicly supported housing). In that,
HB 2003 required the development of a methodology for projecting regional housing need and
allocate that need to local jurisdictions. It also expanded local government responsibilities for
planning to meet housing need by requiring cities to develop and adopt Housing Production
Strategies.
Prior to the passage of these bills, Oregon developed its 2016–2020 Consolidated Plan which
includes a detailed housing needs analysis as well as strategies for addressing housing needs
statewide. The plan concluded that “a growing gap between the number of Oregonians who
need affordable housing and the availability of affordable homes has given rise to destabilizing
rent increases, an alarming number of evictions of low- and fixed- income people, increasing
homelessness, and serious housing instability throughout Oregon.” It identified the following
33
issues that describe housing need statewide:
For housing to be considered affordable, a household should pay up to one-third of their
income toward rent, leaving money left over for food, utilities, transportation, medicine,
and other basic necessities. Today, one in two Oregon households pays more than one-
third of their income toward rent, and one in three pays more than half of their income
toward rent.
More school children are experiencing housing instability and homelessness. The rate of
K–12 homeless children increased by 12% from the 2013–2014 school year to the 2014–
2015 school year.
Oregon has 28,500 rental units that are affordable and available to renters with
extremely low incomes. There are about 131,000 households that need those apartments,
leaving a gap of 102,500 units.
Housing instability is fueled by an unsteady, low-opportunity employment market.
Over 400,000 Oregonians are employed in low-wage work. Low-wage work is a growing
share of Oregon’s economy. When wages are set far below the cost needed to raise a
family, the demand for public services grows to record heights.
Women are more likely than men to end up in low-wage jobs. Low wages, irregular
hours, and part-time work compound issues.
People of color historically constitute a disproportionate share of the low-wage work
force. About 45% of Latino, and 50% of African Americans are employed in low-wage
industries.
The majority of low-wage workers are adults over the age of 20, many of whom have
earned a college degree or some level of higher education.
33
These conclusions are copied directly from the report: Oregon’s 2016–2020 Consolidated Plan. Retrieved from:
http://www.oregon.gov/ohcs/docs/Consolidated-Plan/2016-2020-Consolidated-Plan-Amendment.pdf.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 31
In 2019, minimum wage in Oregon was $11.25, compared to $12.50 in the Portland
34
Metro, and $11.00 for nonurban counties.
Oregon developed its Statewide Housing Plan in 2018. The Plan identified six housing priorities
to address in communities across the State over the 2019 to 2023 period (summarized below). In
August 2020, Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) released a summary of their
35
The following section includes summaries and excerpts from their status report:
progress.
Equity and Racial Justice. Advance equity and racial justice by identifying and addressing
institutional and systemic barriers that have created and perpetuated patterns of disparity in
housing and economic prosperity.
OHCS built internal organizational capacity through staff trainings on Equity and Racial
Justice (ERJ) and hired an Equity, Diversity and Inclusion Manager. OHCS established a
workgroup to support equity in their data system and approved an internal
organizational structure to advance and support ERJ within all areas of OHCS. Now,
OHCS is developing funding mechanisms to encourage culturally specific organizations
to increase services to underserved communities and to increase the number and dollar
amounts of contracts awarded to minority, women, and emerging small businesses
(MWESBs).
Homelessness. Build a coordinated and concerted statewide effort to prevent and end
homelessness, with a focus on ending unsheltered homelessness of Oregon’s children and
veterans.
The Homeless Services Section (HSS) made progress in building a foundation for
planning and engagement across intersecting economic, social, and health systems. The
OHCS Veteran Leadership team established recurring information-sharing sessions with
federal, state, and local partners. HSS convened Oregon Homeless Management
Information System (HMIS) stakeholders to build recommendations and co-construct a
path toward a new HMIS implementation and data warehouse. HSS established
successful workflows to analyze demographic data of people entering and exiting the
homeless service system.
Permanent Supportive Housing. Invest in permanent supportive housing (PSH), a proven
strategy to reduce chronic homelessness and reduce barriers to housing stability.
OHCS funded 405 of their 1,000 PSH-unit targets. Almost half of these units were the
result of the NOFA tied to the first PSH Institute cohort.
34
The 2016 Oregon Legislature, Senate Bill 1532, established a series of annual minimum wage rate increases
beginning July 1, 2016, through July 1, 2022. Retrieved from:
https://www.oregon.gov/boli/whd/omw/pages/minimum-wage-rate-summary.aspx
35
This section uses many direct excerpts from the OHCS Statewide Housing Plan Year One Summary August 2020
Report to HSC. Oregon Statewide Housing Plan, Status Reports.
https://www.oregon.gov/ohcs/Documents/swhp/SWHP-Report-Y1-Summary.pdf
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 32
Affordable Rental Housing. Work to close the affordable rental housing gap and reduce
housing cost burden for low-income Oregonians.
OHCS implemented a new electronic application and widespread adoption of system
work modules. They also established a capacity building team to assess and recommend
opportunities for growth in their development priorities and began training and
technical assistance to potential PSH and rural developers. OHCS increased their units
by 8,408 representing 22.8% of their 25,000 unit 5-year target.
Homeownership. Provide more low- and moderate-income Oregonians with the tools to
successfully achieve and maintain homeownership, particularly in communities of color.
OHCS pursued a strategy to align programs with the needs of communities of color,
improved their Homeownership Center framework and Down Payment Assistance
product, began developing their TBA program and focused on low-cost homeownership
through manufactured housing. Additionally, they began developing the Restore Health
and Safety program and reopening the Oregon Homeownership Stabilization Initiative
(OHSI) program. OHCS also supported the Joint Task Force on Racial Equity in
Homeownership and advocating for additional funds to support communities of color.
OHCS provided 678 mortgage lending products of their 6,500 5-year goal with 170
products going to households of color.
Rural Communities. Change the way OHCS does business in small towns and rural
communities to be responsive to the unique housing and service needs and unlock the
opportunities for housing development.
OHCS focused on developing a better understanding of rural community needs and
increasing rural capacity to build more affordable housing. OHCS hired a full-time
capacity building analyst who has conducted outreach to key stakeholders across the
state representing rural communities and developed a strategy to address those needs.
OHCS has funded 532 units in rural communities, out of a total of 2,543 units in the 5-
year goal (21% of target).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 33
Regional and Local Demographic Trends May Affect Housing Need in Ashland
Demographic trends that might affect the key assumptions used in the baseline analysis of
housing need are (1) the aging population, (2) changes in household size and composition, and
(3) increases in diversity.
An individual’s housing needs change throughout their life, with changes in income, family
composition, and age. The types of housing needed by a 20-year-old college student differ from
the needs of a 40-year-old parent with children, or an 80-year-old single adult. As Ashland’s
population ages, different types of housing will be needed to accommodate older residents. The
housing characteristics by age data below reveal this cycle in action in Ashland.
Housing needs and Exhibit 20. Effect of Demographic Changes on Housing Need
Source: ECONorthwest, adapted from Clark, William A.V. and Frans M. Dieleman.
preferences change in
1996. Households and Housing. New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy
predictable ways over
Research.
time, such as with
changes in marital status
and size of family.
Changes in income, which
changes over a person’s
life with age, strongly
influence the types of
housing selected.
Families of different sizes
need different types of
housing. Changes in
income is also a key factor
in housing demand.
This graphic illustrates an
example of changes in
housing needs across a
person’s life.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 34
Growing Population
Ashland’s population growth will drive future demand for housing in the City over the
planning period.
Exhibit 21 shows that Ashland’s population (within its city limits) grew by 8% between 2000
and 2020. Ashland added 1,583 new residents, at an average annual growth rate of 0.4%.
Exhibit 22 shows that the population within Ashland UGB is also forecast to grow over the
planning period (2021-2041). The official population forecast, from the Oregon Population
Forecast Program, finds that Ashland will add 1,691 people, at an average annual growth rate of
0.37%.
Exhibit 21. Population, Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, U.S., 2000, 2010, and 2020
Source: U.S. Decennial Census and Portland State University, Census World Clock, and Population Research Center.
Ashland’s population Exhibit 22. Forecast of Population Growth, Ashland UGB,
within its urban growth 2021 to 2041
Source: Oregon Population Forecast Program, Portland State University,
boundary is projected to
Population Research Center, 2018.
grow by over 1,691 people
between 2021 and 2041,
21,93623,6271,691 8% increase
at an average annual
Residents in Residents in New residents 0.37% AAGR
36
growth rate of 0.37%.
2021 2041 2021 to 2041
36
This forecast of population growth is based on Ashland UGB’s official population forecast from the Oregon
Population Forecast Program. ECONorthwest extrapolated the population forecast for 2020 (to 2021) and 2040 (to
2041) based on the methodology specified in the following file (from the Oregon Population Forecast Program
website): http://www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Population_Interpolation_Template.xlsx
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 35
Aging Population
This section shows two key characteristics of Ashland’s population, with implications for future
housing demand in Ashland:
Seniors. Ashland has a larger share of people over 60 years old compared to Jackson
County and Oregon. As Ashland’s senior population grows, it will have increasing
demand for housing that is suitable for elderly residents.
Demand for housing for seniors will grow over the planning period, as the baby
boomers continue to age and retire. The Jackson County forecast share of residents aged
60 years and older will account for 32% of its population in 2040, up from 30% in 2020.
The impact of growth in seniors in Ashland will depend, in part, on whether older
people already living in Ashland continue to reside there as they retire. National surveys
show that, in general, most retirees prefer to age in place by continuing to live in their
37
current home and community as long as possible.
Growth in the number of seniors will result in demand for housing types specific to
seniors, such as small and easy-to-maintain dwellings, assisted living facilities, or
age-restricted developments. Senior households will make a variety of housing choices,
including remaining in their homes as long as they are able, downsizing to smaller
single-family homes (detached and attached) or multifamily units, or moving into group
housing (such as assisted living facilities or nursing homes), as their health declines. The
challenges aging seniors face in continuing to live in their community include changes in
healthcare needs, loss of mobility, the difficulty of home maintenance, financial
38
concerns, and increases in property taxes.
Ashland has a smaller share of younger people than Jackson County and Oregon.
About 19% of Ashland’s population is under 20 years old, compared to 23% of Jackson
County’s population and 24% of Oregon’s population. By 2040, the millennial
generation will be about 40 to 60 years of age and Generation Z will be between 25 and
40 years old. The forecast for Jackson County shows a decrease in millennials and
Generation Z as a percent of overall population from about 46% of the population in
2020 to about 41% of the population in 2040.
Millennials and Generation Z will be drivers in housing need over the planning period.
Ashland’s ability to attract people in these age groups will depend, in large part, on
whether the city has opportunities for housing that both appeals to and is affordable to
millennials and Generation Z, as well as jobs that allow younger people to live and work
in Ashland.
37
A survey conducted by the AARP indicates that 90% of people 50 years and older want to stay in their current
home and community as they age. See http://www.aarp.org/research.
38
“Aging in Place: A toolkit for Local Governments” by M. Scott Ball.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 36
In the near-term, millennials and Generation Z may increase demand for rental units.
Research suggests that millennials’ housing preferences may be similar to the baby
boomers, with a preference for smaller, less costly units. Surveys about housing
preference suggest that millennials want affordable single-family homes in areas that
offer transportation alternatives to cars, such as suburbs or small cities with walkable
39
Little information is available about the effect that Generation Z will
neighborhoods.
have on the housing market and their future housing preferences.
A survey of people living in the Portland region shows that millennials prefer single-
family detached housing. The survey finds that housing price is the most important
40
factor in choosing housing for younger residents. The survey results suggest
millennials are more likely than other groups to prefer housing in an urban
neighborhood or town center. While this survey is for the Portland region, it shows
similar results to national surveys and studies about housing preference for millennials.
Growth in millennials and Generation Z in Ashland will result in increased demand for
both affordable single-family detached housing (such as small single-family detached
units like cottages), middle-income housing types (such as townhouses, duplexes,
triplexes, and quadplexes), and multifamily housing. One of the barriers to household
formation and homeownership for these groups is potential for greater levels of debt
than the baby boomers or Generation X, which may delay household formation and
delay or prevent some from becoming homeowners. Over the long-term, growth in
these groups will result in increased demand for both ownership and rental
opportunities, with an emphasis on housing that is comparatively affordable. There is
potential for attracting new residents to housing in Ashland’s commercial areas,
especially if the housing is relatively affordable and located in proximity to services.
39
The American Planning Association, “Investing in Place; Two generations’ view on the future of communities.”
2014.
“Access to Public Transportation a Top Criterion for Millennials When Deciding Where to Live, New Survey Shows,”
Transportation for America.
“Survey Says: Home Trends and Buyer Preferences,” National Association of Home Builders International Builders
40
Davis, Hibbits, & Midghal Research, “Metro Residential Preference Survey,” May 2014.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 37
From 2000 to 2014-Exhibit 23. Median Age, Ashland, Jackson County, and Oregon, 2000
2018, Ashland’s median to 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Table B01002, 2014-2018
age increased from 37.9
ACS, Table B01002.
to 44 years.
In the 2014-2018 period, Exhibit 24. Population Distribution by Age, Ashland, Jackson County,
50% of Ashland’s and Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS, Table B01001.
residents were between
the ages of 20 and 59
years.
Ashland had a larger
share of people over the
age of 60 than the county
and state and a smaller
share residents under the
age of 20.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 38
Ashland has a larger Exhibit 25. Population by Ageand Sex, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS, Table S0101.
female population,
compared to the county
average and they are
generally older than
males in the city.
About 54% of Ashland’s
population is female,
compared to 51% of
Jackson County’s
population.
On average, Ashland’s
female population is older
than the male population.
About 31% of Ashland’s
population is females over
40 years old, compared to
24% of the city’s male
population in this age
category.
Between 2000 and the Exhibit 26. Population Growth by Age, Ashland, 2000 to 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Table P012 and 2014-2018
2014-2018period, the
ACS, Table B01001.
population aged 60 and
older grew the most.
In this time, those aged
60 years and older grew
by 2,909 people (from
3,509 people in 2000 to
6,499 people in 2018).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 39
By 2040, Jackson Exhibit 27. Fastest-growing Age Groups, Jackson County, 2020to
County’s population 2040
Source: PSU Population Research Center, Jackson County Forecast, June 2017.
over 60 years old is
forecast to grow 27%.
11% 8% 25% 27%
This is an increase in
5,363 People 4,211 People 13,901 18,458
18,458 people.
People People
Under 20 20-39 Yrs40-59 Yrs 60+ Yrs
By 2040, Jackson County Exhibit 28. Population Growth by Age Group, Jackson County, 2020
residents 60 years of age and 2040
Source: PSU Population Research Center, Jackson County Forecast, June 2017.
and older are forecast to
comprise 32% of the total
population, up from 30%
in 2020.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 40
Increased Ethnic Diversity
The number of Latino residents increased in Ashland, by 714 people, from 2000 to the 2014-2018
period. The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts that at the national level, the Latino population will
continue growing faster than most other non-Latino populations between 2020 and 2040. The
Census forecasts that the Latino population in the U.S. will increase 93%, from 2016 to 2060, and
41
foreign-born Latino populations will increase by about 40% in that same time.
Continued growth in the Latino population may affect Ashland’s housing needs in a variety of
ways. Growth in first and, to a lesser extent, second and third generation Latino immigrants,
will increase demand for larger dwelling units to accommodate the, on average, larger
household sizes for these households. In that, Latino households are twice as likely to include
42
multiple generations households than the general populace. As Latino households change
over generations, household size typically decreases, and housing needs become similar to
housing needs for all households.
According to the State of Hispanic Homeownership report from the National Association of
43
Hispanic Real Estate Professionals: the Latino population accounted for 31% of the nation’s
new households in 2019, up 2.8 percentage points from 2017. The rate of homeownership for
Latino households increased from 45.6% in 2015 to 47.5% in 2019. In that time, Latino
households were the only demographic that increased their rate of homeownership.
The share of Ashland’s Exhibit 29. Latino Population as a Percent of the Total Population,
households that identified Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, 2000 and 2014–2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Table P008, 2014–2018
as Latino increased
ACS Table B03002.
between 2000 and 2014–
2018.
However, Ashland was less
ethnically diverse than both
Jackson County and Oregon
in 2000 and in the 2014–
2018 period.
41
U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060.
42
Pew Research Center. (2013). Second-Generation Americans: A Portrait of the Adult Children of Immigrants. National
Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (2019). 2019 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report.
43
National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (2019). 2019 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 41
Racial Diversity
While the majority of Ashland’s population is White, Ashland has residents of many races, as
shown in Exhibit 30, consistent with Jackson County’s population.
About 92% of Ashland’s Exhibit 30. Non-White Population by Race as a Percent of Total
population was White in Population, Ashland and Jackson County, 2014–2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Table P008, 2014–2018
2014-2018. The largest
ACS Table B02001.
communities of color were
people from two or more
acres, Asians, and Blacks.
Household Size and Composition
Ashland’s household composition shows that households in Ashlandaredifferentcompared
households in Jackson County and Oregon. In that, over half of Ashland’s households (53%) are
comprised of non-family households (i.e., one-person households or two or more unrelated
people living together), compared to 36% in Jackson County and 37% in Oregon. On average,
Ashland’s households are smaller than Jackson County’s and Oregon’s households.
Ashland’s average Exhibit 31. Average Household Size, Ashland, Jackson County, and
household size was Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B25010.
smaller than Jackson
County and Oregon’s.
2.06 Persons 2.41 Persons 2.51 Persons
Ashland Jackson County Oregon
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 42
Ashland had a larger Exhibit 32. Household Size, Ashland, Jackson County, and Oregon,
share of one-person 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B25010.
households compared to
the County and State.
Ashland hada larger share Exhibit 33. Household Composition, Ashland, Jackson County,
of nonfamily households Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table DP02.
than Jackson County and
Oregon.
About 20% of Ashland
households were family
households with children,
compared with 25% of
Jackson County households
and 26% of Oregon
households.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 43
Income of AshlandResidents
Income is one of the key determinants in housing choice and households’ ability to afford
housing. Income for residents living in Ashland is lower than the Jackson County median
household income and Oregon median household income.
In the 2014-2018 period, Exhibit 34. Median Household Income, Ashland, Jackson County,
Ashland’s median Oregon, and Comparison Cities, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B19013.
household income
($50,613) was similar to
the counties, but about
$8,700 less than the
state’s median household
income (MHI).
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 44
In the 2014-2018period, Exhibit 35. Household Income, Ashland, Jackson County, and
about 50% of Ashland’s Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B19001.
households earned less
than $50,000 per year,
compared to 49% of
Jackson County’s
households and 42% of
Oregon’s households.
From 2000 to the 2014-Exhibit 36. Change in Median Household Income (2018 inflation-
2018 period, and after adjusted), Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, 2000 to 2014-2018,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Table HCT012; 2014-2018
adjusting for inflation,
ACS 5-year estimate, Table B25119.
Ashland’s median
household income (MHI)
increased by 5% or about
$2,400.
Earnings for females in Exhibit 37. Mean Earnings in the Last Year by Sex (2018 dollars),
Ashland were lower than Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, 2014-2018,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table S2001.
for males, consistent with
countywide averages.
Females in Ashland had
average earnings that were
78% of male earnings,
compared to 75% for the
county average
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 45
Commuting Trends
Ashland is part of the complex, interconnected economy of Southern Oregon. Of the more than
9,799 people who work in Ashland, 66% of workers commuted into Ashland from other areas,
most notably Medford. More than 4,000 residents of Ashland commute out of the city for work,
many of them to Medford.
About 6,400 people Exhibit 38. Commuting Flows, Ashland, 2017
Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Census On the Map.
commuted into Ashland for
work and more than 4,200
people living in Ashland
commuted out of the city for
work.
About 3,400 people lived
and worked in Ashland.
About 34% of people who Exhibit 39. Places Where Workers at Businesses in Ashland Lived,
worked at businesses in 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.
Ashland also lived in
Ashland.
34% 19% 7%
Ashland MedfordTalent
About 44% of Ashland Exhibit 40. Places Where Ashland Residents were Employed,
residents worked in 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.
Ashland.
44% 24% 2%
Ashland Medford Grants Pass
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 46
Almost half of Ashland Exhibit 41. Commute Time by Place of Residence, Ashland, Jackson
residents (46%) had a County, Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B08303.
commute time that took
less than 15 minutes.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 47
Populations with Special Needs
People Experiencing Homelessness
Gathering reliable data from individuals experiencing homelessness is difficult precisely
because they are unstably housed. People can cycle in an out of homelessness and move around
communities and shelters. Moreover, the definition of homelessness can vary between
communities. Individuals and families temporarily living with relatives or friends are
insecurely housed, but they are often neglected from homelessness data. Even if an individual is
identified as lacking sufficient housing, they may be reluctant to share information. As a result,
information about people experiencing homelessness in Ashland is not readily available.
This section presents information about people experiencing homelessness in Jackson County
based on the following sources of information:
Point-in-Time (PIT) count: The PIT count is a snapshot of individuals experiencing
homelessness on a single night in a community. It records the number and
characteristics (e.g., race, age, veteran status) of people who live in emergency shelters,
transitional housing, rapid re-housing, Safe Havens, or PSH; as well as recording those
who are unsheltered. HUD requires that communities and Continuums of Care (CoC)
perform the PIT count during the last ten days of January on an annual basis for
sheltered people and on a biennial basis for unsheltered people. Though the PIT count is
not a comprehensive survey, it serves as a measure of homelessness at a given point of
time and is used for policy and funding decisions.
McKinney Vento data: The McKinney Vento Homeless Assistance Act authorized,
among other programs, the Education for Homeless Children and Youth (EHCY)
Program to support the academic progress of children and youths experiencing
homelessness. The U.S. Department of Education works with state coordinators and
local liaisons to collect performance data on students experiencing homelessness. The
data records the number of school-aged children who live in shelters or hotels/motels
and those who are doubled up, unsheltered, or unaccompanied. This is a broader
definition of homelessness than that used in the PIT.
Although these sources of information are known to undercount people experiencing homeless,
they are consistently available for counties in Oregon.
Jackson County’s Point-in-Exhibit 42. Number of Persons Homeless, Jackson County, Point-
Time Homeless count in-Time Count, 2015, 2017, and 2019
Source: Oregon Housing and Community Services.
increased by 5% from
2015 to 2019.
679 Persons 633 Persons 712 Persons
20152017 2019
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 48
Between 2015and 2019, Exhibit 43. Number of Persons Homeless by Living Situation,
the number of persons that Jackson County, Point-in-Time Count, 2015, 2017, and 2019
Source: Oregon Housing and Community Services.
experienced sheltered
homelessness stayed about
the same while the number
of persons that experienced
unsheltered homelessness
increased by about 10%.
About 135 students in the Exhibit 44. Number of Students Homeless by Living Situation,
Ashland School District School District, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019
Source: McKinney Vento, 2017-18 and 2018-19 Homeless Student Data.
experiences homelessness
in the 2018-2019 school
year.
Jackson County comprises
eight school districts. Of the
total student population
experiencing homelessness
in these districts, 6%
attended the Ashland School
District in the 2018-2019
school year.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 49
People with Disabilities
Exhibit 45 presents data on the share of residents living with disabilities in Ashland, Jackson
County, and Oregon. Persons with disabilities often require special housing accommodations
such as single-story homes or ground floor dwelling units, unit entrances with no steps, wheel
in showers, widened doorways, and other accessibility features. Limited supply of these
housing options poses additional barriers to housing access for these groups.
Exhibit 45. Persons Living with a Disability by Type and as a Percent of Total Population, Ashland,
Jackson County, Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2014-2018 ACS, Table S1810_C02.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 50
Regional and Local Trends Affecting Affordability inAshland
This section describes changes in sales prices, rents, and housing affordability in Ashland,
compared to cities and submarkets in Southern Oregon, as well as Jackson County and Oregon.
Changes in Housing Costs
Ashland’s median home Exhibit 46. Median Home Sales Price, Ashland and Comparison
sales price was higher than Cities, August-October 2020
Source: Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service.
most other Southern Oregon
submarkets.
Since 2017, the median Exhibit 47. Median Home Sales Price, Ashland and Comparison
price of a home in Ashland Cities, 2017 through 2020
Source: Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service.
typically stayed above
$400,000.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 51
Exhibit 48 shows that, since 2000, housing costs in Ashland have increased faster than incomes,
and to a greater degree than in Jackson County and Oregon. The household reported median
value of a house in Ashland was 5.8 times the median household income (MHI) in 2000, and 8.5
times MHI in the 2014-2018 period. Decline of housing affordability was also more extreme in
Ashland compared to other cities within the region.
Exhibit 48. Ratio of Median Housing Value to Median Household Income, Ashland, Jackson County,
44
Oregon, and Comparison Cities, 2000 to 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Tables HCT012 and H085, and 2014-2018 ACS, Tables B19013
and B25077.
44
This ratio compares the median value of housing in Ashland (and other places) to the median household income.
Inflation-adjusted median owner values in Ashland increased from $278,840 in 2000 to $4,28,100 in 2014-2018. Over
the same period, inflation-adjusted median income increased from $48,226 to $50,613.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 52
Rental Costs
Rent costs in Ashland are higher than average for Jackson County. The following charts show
gross rent (which includes the cost of rent plus utilities). Exhibit 49 shows that the median gross
rent in Ashland was $1,003 in the 2014-2018 period. However, in a review of currently available
rental properties as of December 2020, the typical rent for a two-bedroom unit ranged from
$1,145 to $1,560 and the typical rent for a three-bedroom unit ranged from $1,595 to $1,995
(CPM Real Estate Services).
Exhibit 49. Median Gross Rent, Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS 5-year estimate, Table B25064.
About 52% of renters in Exhibit 50. Gross Rent, Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon, 2014-
Ashland paid less than 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25063.
$1,000 per month.
About 32% of Ashland’s
renters paid $1,250 or more
in gross rent per month.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 53
Exhibit 51 shows asking rent for multifamily housing in Ashland based on CoStar data.
Additional research shows that asking rents for currently available rental properties in Ashland
in December 2020 were $1,145 to $1,560 for a 2-bedroom unit and $1,595 to $1,995 for a 3-
45
bedroom unit.
The average asking price Exhibit 51. Average Multifamily Asking Rent per Unit, Ashland,
per multifamily unit in 2010 through 2019
Source: CoStar.
Ashland has increased
steadily over the past few
years after dropping slightly
in 2015.
Between 2015 and 2019,
Ashland’s average
multifamily asking rent
increased by about $95,
from $701 per month to
$796 per month.
In 2019, Ashland’s average Exhibit 52. Average Multifamily Asking Rent per Square Foot and
multifamily asking rent was Average Multifamily Vacancy Rate, Ashland, 2010 through 2019
Source: CoStar.
$1.06 per square foot, up
from $0.93 per square foot
in 2015.
In this time, Ashland’s
multifamily vacancy rate
decreased from 2.8% in
2015 to 2.0% in 2019.
45
CMP Real Estate Services, Inc., December 2020.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 54
Housing Affordability
A typical standard used to determine housing affordability is that a household should pay no
more than a certain percentage of household income for housing, including payments and
interest or rent, utilities, and insurance. The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s
guidelines indicate that households paying more than 30% of their income on housing
experience “cost burden,” and households paying more than 50% of their income on housing
experience “severe cost burden.” Using cost burden as an indicator is one method of
determining how well a city is meeting the Goal 10 requirement to provide housing that is
affordable to all households in a community.
About 45% of Ashland’s households are cost burdened and 24% are severely cost burdened.
About 63% of renter households are cost burdened, compared with 31% of homeowners. About
46
Overall, Ashland has a slightly
27% of households in Ashland are rent burdened households.
larger share of cost-burdened households than Jackson County and Oregon.
The information in this section does not reflect the impact of the Alameda wildfire, with
destroyed more than 2,500 dwelling units located between Ashland and Medford. Many of
these dwelling units were relatively affordable, such as manufactured housing. The loss of this
housing decreased the supply of affordable housing and increases need for it, within the region
and within Ashland.
46
Cities with populations >10,000 are required, per HB 4006, to assess “rent burden” if more than 50% of renters are
cost burdened. In Ashland as of the 2014-2018 period, 63% of total renters were cost burdened.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 55
Overall, about 46% of all Exhibit 53. Housing Cost Burden, Ashland,Jackson County, Oregon,
households in Ashland were and Comparison Cities, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Tables B25091 and B25070.
cost burdened.
From 2000 to the 2014-Exhibit 54. Change in Housing Cost Burden, Ashland, 2000 to
2018 period, the number of 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Tables H069 and H094 and
cost-burdened and severely
2014-2018 ACS Tables B25091 and B25070.
cost-burdened households
increased slightly.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 56
Rentersweremuch more Exhibit 55. Housing Cost Burden by Tenure, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Tables B25091 and B25070.
likely to be cost burdened
than homeowners in
Ashland.
In the 2014-2018 period,
about 63% of Ashland’s
renters were cost burdened
or severely cost burdened,
compared to 31% of
homeowners.
About 35% of Ashland’s
renters were severely cost
burdened, meaning they
paid 50% or more of their
gross income on housing
costs.
Nearly all of Ashland’s Exhibit 56. Cost Burdened Renter Households, by Household
renter households earning Income, Ashland, 2014-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 ACS Table B25074.
less than $20k per year
were severely cost
burdened, spending 50% or
more of their income on
housing costs.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 57
Exhibit 57 to Exhibit 59 show cost burden in Oregon for renter households for seniors, people of
47
color, and people with disabilities. This information is not readily available for a city with a
population as small as Ashland, which is why we present regional information. These exhibits
show that these groups experience cost burden at higher rates than the overall statewide
average.
Renters 65 years of age and Exhibit 57. Cost Burdened Renter Households, for People 65 Years
older were of Age and Older, Oregon, 2018
Source: S. Census, 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS Estimates. From the Report Implementing a
disproportionately rent
Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon: Approach, Results, and Initial
burdened compared to the
Recommendations by ECONorthwest, August 2020.
state average.
About 60% of renters aged
65 years and older were rent
burdened, compared with
the statewide average of
48% of renters.
47
From the report Implementing a Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon, prepared for Oregon
Housing and Community Services by ECONorthwest, March 2021.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 58
Compared to the average Exhibit 58.Cost Burdened Renter Households,by Race and
renter household in Oregon, Ethnicity, Oregon, 2018
Source: U.S. Census, 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS Estimates. From the Report
those that identified as a
Implementing a Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon:
non-Asian person of color or
Approach, Results, and Initial Recommendations by ECONorthwest, August 2020.
as Latino were
disproportionately rent
burdened.
Renters with a disability in Exhibit 59. Cost Burdened Renter Households, for People with
Oregon were Disabilities, Oregon, 2018
Source: S. Census, 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS Estimates. From the Report Implementing a
disproportionately cost
Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon: Approach, Results, and Initial
burdened compared with
Recommendations by ECONorthwest, August 2020.
the statewide average.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 59
While cost burden is a common measure of housing affordability, it does have some limitations.
Two important limitations are:
A household is defined as cost burdened if the housing costs exceed 30% of their
income, regardless of actual income. The remaining 70% of income is expected to be
spent on non-discretionary expenses, such as food or medical care, and on discretionary
expenses. Households with higher incomes may be able to pay more than 30% of their
income on housing without impacting the household’s ability to pay for necessary non-
discretionary expenses.
Cost burden compares income to housing costs and does not account for accumulated
wealth. As a result, the estimate of how much a household can afford to pay for housing
does not include the impact of a household’s accumulated wealth. For example, a
household of retired people may have relatively low income but may have accumulated
assets (such as profits from selling another house) that allow them to purchase a house
that would be considered unaffordable to them based on the cost burden indicator.
Cost burden does not account for debts, such as college loans, credit card debt, or other
debts. As a result, households with high levels of debt may be less able to pay up to 30%
of their income for housing costs.
Another way of exploring the issue of financial need is to review housing affordability at
varying levels of household income. Exhibit 60 and Exhibit 61 provide some information about
housing costs and necessary wages to afford housing in Jackson County.
Fair Market Rent for a Exhibit 60. HUD Fair Market Rent (FMR) by Unit Type,
2-bedroom apartment Jackson County, 2021
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
in Jackson County is
$1,039.
$727 $788 $1,039$1,487 $1,799
Studio1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom4-Bedroom
A household must earn Exhibit 61. Affordable Housing Wage, Jackson County, 2021
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; Oregon Bureau of
at least $17.98 per hour
Labor and Industries.
to afford a two-bedroom
unit at Fair Market Rent
$17.98 per hour
($1,039) in Jackson
Affordable housing wage for two-bedroom unit in Jackson County
County.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 60
A household earning median family income ($65,100) can afford a monthly rent of about $1,600
or a home roughly valued between $228,000 and $260,000. Exhibit 63 shows that about 35% of
Ashland’s households earn less than $32,550 (less than 50% of MFI) and cannot afford a two-
bedroom apartment at Jackson County’s Fair Market Rent (FMR) of $1,043.
To afford the average asking rent for a 2-bedroom unit of $1,145 to $1,560, a household would
need to earn about $46,000 to $62,000 or 70% to 96% of MFI. About 45% of Ashland’s
households earn less than $50,000 and cannot afford these rents. In addition, about 19% of
Ashland’s households have incomes of less than $19,500 (30% of MFI) and are at-risk of
becoming homeless.
To afford the median home sales price of $435,000, a household would need to earn about
$109,000 or 167% of MFI. Less than one-quarter of Ashland’s households have income sufficient
to afford this median home sales price.
Exhibit 62. Financially Attainable Housing, by Median Family Income (MFI) for Jackson County
($65,100), Ashland, 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Jackson County, 2020. Oregon Employment Department.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 61
Exhibit 63. Share of Households MFI for Jackson County ($65,100), Ashland, 2019
Source: U.S. Department of HUD, Jackson County, 2020. U.S. Census Bureau, 2015-2019ACS Table 19001.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 62
Exhibit 64 illustrates the types of financially attainable housing by income level in Jackson
County. Generally speaking, however lower-income households will be renters occupying
existing housing. Newly built housing will be a combination of renters (most likely in
multifamily housing) and homeowners. The types of housing affordable for the lowest income
households is limited to government subsidized housing, manufactured housing, lower-cost
single-family housing, and multifamily housing. The range of financially attainable housing
increases with increased income.
Exhibit 64. Types of Financially Attainable Housing by Median Family Income (MFI) for Jackson
County ($65,100), Ashland, 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Ashland, 2020. Oregon Employment Department.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 63
Exhibit 65 compares the number of households by income category with the number of units
affordable to those households in Ashland. Ashland currently has a deficit of housing units for
households earning 0-50% of the MFI (less than $32,500 per year) with nearly 40% of
households occupying units that are not affordable to their income level, resulting in cost
burden of these households. Similarly, approximately 26% of Ashland households with incomes
that are 50-80% of the MFI ($32,500 to $52,080) are cost burdened.
This indicates a deficit of more affordable housing types (such as government-subsidized
housing, existing lower-cost apartments, and manufactured housing). For households earning
more than 80% of the MFI, 26% are renting or buying down, which means that they are
occupying units affordable to lower income households. These households could afford more
costly housing but either choose to live in less costly housing or cannot find higher cost housing
that meets their needs.
Exhibit 65. Unit Affordability by Household Income, Ashland, 2013-2017
Source: CHAS, 2013-2017, Table 18.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 64
Summary of the Factors Affecting Ashland’sHousing Needs
The purpose of the analysis thus far has been to provide background on the kinds of factors that
influence housing choice. While the number and interrelationships among these factors ensure
that generalizations about housing choice are difficult to make and prone to inaccuracies, it is a
crucial step to informing the types of housing that will be needed in the future.
There is no question that age affects housing type and tenure. Mobility is substantially higher
for people aged 20 to 34. People in that age group will also have, on average, less income than
people who are older and they are less likely to have children. These factors mean that younger
households are much more likely to be renters, and renters are more likely to be in multifamily
housing.
The data illustrates what more detailed research has shown and what most people understand
intuitively: life cycle and housing choice interact in ways that are predictable in the aggregate;
age of the household head is correlated with household size and income; household size and
age of household head affect housing preferences; and income affects the ability of a household
to afford a preferred housing type. The connection between socioeconomic and demographic
factors and housing choice is often described informally by giving names to households with
certain combinations of characteristics: the "traditional family," the "never-marrieds," the
48
"dinks" (dual-income, no kids), and the "empty-nesters." Thus, simply looking at the long
wave of demographic trends can provide good information for estimating future housing
demand.
Still, one is ultimately left with the need to make a qualitative assessment of the future housing
market. The following is a discussion of how demographic and housing trends are likely to
affect housing in Ashland over the next 20 years:
Growth in housing will be driven by growth in population. Between 2000 and 2019,
Ashland’s population grew by 1,438 people (7%). The population in Ashland’s UGB is
forecasted to grow from 21,936 people to 23,627 people, an increase of 1,691 residents
49
(8%) between 2021 and 2041.
Housing affordability is a growing challenge in Ashland. Housing affordability is a
challenge in most of the Southern Oregon region in general, and Ashland is affected by
these regional trends. Housing prices are increasing faster than incomes in Ashland and
Jackson County, which is consistent with state and national challenges. Ashland has a
modest supply of multifamily housing (about 25% of the city’s housing stock), but over
half of renter households are cost burdened (63%).
48
See Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon's Urban Areas (June 1997).
49
This forecast is based on Jackson County’s certified population estimate and official forecast from the Oregon
Population Forecast Program for the 2021 to 2041 period, shown in Exhibit 22.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 65
Ashland’s key challenge over the next 20 years is providing opportunities for
development of relatively affordable housing of all types, such as lower-cost single-
family housing, townhomes, cottage housing, duplexes, tri- and quad-plexes, market-
rate multifamily housing, and government-subsidized affordable housing.
In addition, the region has a lack of housing and services for people experiencing
homelessness. Ashland can play a role in both addressing housing needs of people
currently experiencing homelessness and ensuring that people at risk of homelessness
do not become homeless. About 19% of Ashland’s households have income below 30%
of MFI and are at-risk of becoming homeless.
Without substantial changes in housing policy, on average, future housing will look a
lot like past housing. That is the assumption that underlies any trend forecast, and one
that is important when trying to address demand for new housing.
The City’s residential policies can impact the amount of change in Ashland’s housing
market to some degree. If the City adopts policies to increase opportunities to build
smaller-scale single-family and a wide range of multifamily housing types (particularly
multifamily that is affordable to low- and moderate-income households), a larger
percentage of new housing developed over the next 20 years in Ashland may begin to
address the city’s needs. Examples of policies that the City could adopt to achieve this
outcome include: increasing the allowable densities in the Multi-Family Residential (R-
2), High Density Residential (R-3), and parts of the Normal Neighborhood Plan
Designations; evaluating decreasing multifamily parking requirements; increasing the
supply of High Density Residential lands by rezoning lands within lower density Plan
Designations that have a surplus of capacity; supporting development of income-
restricted affordable housing through use of incentives like the Multiple Unit Property
Tax Exemption; and identifying opportunities to participate in a land bank and/or land
trust to support development of affordable housing.
If the future differs from the past, it is likely to move in the direction, on average, of
smaller units and more diverse housing types. Most of the evidence suggests that the
bulk of the change will be in the direction of smaller average house and lot sizes for
single-family housing. This includes providing opportunities for the development of
smaller single-family detached homes, townhomes, and multifamily housing. However,
the impact of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic may trigger a reversal of these trends, if
more working-aged persons transition to permanent work-from-home situations.
Key demographic and economic trends that will affect Ashland’s future housing needs
are: (1) the aging of the baby boomers, (2) the aging of the millennials and Generation Z,
and (3) the continued growth in Hispanic and Latino population.
The baby boomer’s population is continuing to age. The changes that affect Ashland’s
housing demand as the population ages are that household sizes and
homeownership rates decrease. In addition, Ashland has a larger share of female
population, who are on average older and have lower earnings than their male
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 66
counterparts. The majority of baby boomers are expected to remain in their homes as
long as possible, downsizing or moving when illness or other issues cause them to
move. Demand for specialized senior housing, such as age-restricted housing or
housing in a continuum of care from independent living to nursing home care, may
grow in Ashland.
Millennials and Generation Z will continue to form households and make a variety of
housing choices. As millennials and Generation Z age, generally speaking, their
household sizes will increase, and their homeownership rates will peak by about age
55. Between 2021 and 2041, millennials and Generation Z will be a key driver in
demand for housing for families with children. The ability to attract millennials will
depend on the City’s availability of renter and ownership housing that is large
enough to accommodate families while still being relatively affordable. It will also
depend on the location of new housing in Ashland as many millennials prefer to live
50
in more urban environments. The decline in homeownership among the millennial
51
generation has more to do with financial barriers rather than the preference to rent.
Housing preferences for Generation Z are not yet known but it is reasonable that
they will also need affordable housing, both for rental and later in life for ownership.
Some millennials and Generation Z households will occupy housing that is currently
occupied but becomes available over the planning period, such as housing that is
currently owned or occupied by Baby Boomers. Some need for housing large enough
for families may be accommodated in these existing units.
The Latino population will continue to grow. Latino population growth will be an
important driver in growth of housing demand, both for owner- and renter-occupied
housing. Growth in Latino households will drive demand for housing for families
with children and possibly multiple-generation households. Given the lower income
for Latino households on average (especially first-generation immigrants), growth in
this group will also drive demand for affordable housing, both for ownership and
renting.
In summary, an aging population, increasing housing costs, housing affordability concerns for
Millennials, Generation Z, and Latino populations, and other variables are factors that support
the conclusion of need for smaller and less expensive units and a broader array of housing
choices.
50
Choi, Hyun June; Zhu, Jun; Goodman, Laurie; Ganesh, Bhargavi; Strochak, Sarah. (2018). Millennial
Homeownership, Why is it So Low, and How Can We Increase It? Urban Institute.
https://www.urban.org/research/publication/millennial-homeownership/view/full_report
51
Ibid.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 67
5.Housing Need in Ashland
ProjectedNew Housing Units Needed in the Next 20 Years
The results of the Housing Capacity Analysis are based on: (1) the official population forecast
for growth in Ashland over the 20-year planning period, (2) information about Ashland’s
housing market relative to Jackson County, Oregon, and nearby cities, and (3) the demographic
composition of Ashland’s existing population and expected long-term changes in the
demographics of Jackson County.
Forecast for Housing Growth
This section describes key assumptions and presents an estimate of new housing units needed
in Ashland between 2021 and 2041. The key assumptions are based on the best available data
52
and may rely on safe harbor provisions, when available.
Population. A 20-year population forecast (in this instance, 2021 to 2041) is the
foundation for estimating needed new dwelling units. Ashland’s UGB will grow from
53
21,936 persons in 2021 to 23,627 persons in 2041, an increase of 1,691 people.
54
Persons in Group Quarters.Persons in group quarters do not consume standard
housing units; any forecast of new people in group quarters is typically derived from the
population forecast for the purpose of estimating housing demand. Group quarters can
have a big influence on housing in cities with colleges (dorms), prisons, or a large
elderly population (nursing homes). In general, any new requirements for these housing
types will be met by institutions (colleges, government agencies, health-care
corporations) operating outside what is typically defined as the housing market.
Nonetheless, group quarters require residential land. They are typically built at densities
that are comparable to that of multifamily dwellings.
52
A safe harbor is an assumption that a city can use in a Housing Capacity Analysis thatthe State has said will satisfy
the requirements of Goal 14. OAR 660-024 defines a safe harbor as “… an optional course of action that a local
government may use to satisfy a requirement of Goal 14. Use of a safe harbor prescribed in this division will satisfy
the requirement for which it is prescribed. A safe harbor is not the only way, or necessarily the preferred way, to
comply with a requirement and it is not intended to interpret the requirement for any purpose other than applying a
safe harbor within this division.”
53
This forecast is based on Ashland UGB’s official forecast from the Oregon Population Forecast Program for the 2021
to 2041 period.
54
The Census Bureau's definition of group quarters is as follows: A group quarters is a place where people live or
stay, in a group living arrangement, that is owned or managed by an entity or organization providing housing and/or
services for the residents. The Census Bureau classifies all people not living in housing units (house, apartment,
mobile home, rented rooms) as living in group quarters. There are two types of group quarters: (1) Institutional, such
as correctional facilities, nursing homes, or mental hospitals and (2) Non-Institutional, such as college dormitories,
military barracks, group homes, missions, or shelters.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 68
The 2015-2019American Community Survey shows that 3.5% of Ashland’s population
was in group quarters. For the 2021 to 2041 period, we assume that 3.5% of Ashland’s
new population, approximately 58 people, will be in group quarters.
Household Size. OAR 660-024 established a safe harbor assumption for average
household size—which is the figure from the most recent Decennial Census at the time
of the analysis. According to the 2015-2019 American Community Survey, the average
household size in Ashland was 2.06 people. Thus, for the 2021 to 2041 period, we
assume an average household size of 2.06 persons.
Vacancy Rate. The Census defines vacancy as: "unoccupied housing units are
considered vacant. Vacancy status is determined by the terms under which the unit may
be occupied, e.g., for rent, for sale, or for seasonal use only." The 2010 Census identified
vacancy through an enumeration, separate from (but related to) the survey of
households. The Census determines vacancy status and other characteristics of vacant
units by enumerators obtaining information from property owners and managers,
neighbors, rental agents, and others.
Vacancy rates are cyclical and represent the lag between demand and the market’s
response to demand for additional dwelling units. Vacancy rates for rental and
multifamily units are typically higher than those for owner-occupied and single-family
dwelling units.
According to the 2015-2019 American Community Survey, Ashland’s vacancy rate was
10.8%. After deducting units vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use,
Ashland’s vacancy rate was 8.2%. For the 2021 to 2041 period, we assume a vacancy rate
of 8.2%.
Ashland will have Exhibit 66. Forecast of demand for new dwelling units, Ashland
demand for 858 new UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest.
dwelling units over the
20-year period, with an
annual average of 43
dwelling units.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 69
Housing Units Needed Over the Next 20 Years
Exhibit 66 above presents a forecast of new housing in Ashland’s UGB for the 2021 to 2041
period. This section determines the needed mix and density for the development of new
housing developed over this 20-year period in Ashland.
Over the next 20-years, the need for new housing developed in Ashland will generally include a
wider range of housing types and housing that is more affordable. This conclusion is based on
the following information, found in Chapter 3 and 4:
Ashland’s housing mix is predominately single-family detached (although the city has a
smaller share of this housing type than Jackson County). In the 2014-2018 period, 66% of
Ashland’s housing stock was single-family detached, 9% was single-family attached,
11% was multifamily (with two to four units per structure), and 14% was multifamily
(with five or more units per structure).
Demographic changes across Ashland suggest increases in demand for single-family
attached housing and multifamily housing. The key demographic trends that will affect
Ashland’s future housing needs are the aging of the baby boomers, the household
formation of the millennials and Generation Z, and growth in Latino populations. The
implications of these trends are increased demand from older (often single person and
more likely to be female) households and increased demand for affordable housing for
families, both for ownership and rent.
Ashland’s median household income was $50,613, in line with the County’s median
household income of $50,851. Approximately 26% of Ashland’s households earn less
than $25,000 per year, compared to 24% in Jackson County and 20% in Oregon.
About 46% of Ashland’s households are cost burdened (paying 30% or more of their
55
household income on housing costs). About 63% of Ashland’s renters are cost
burdened and about 31% of Ashland’s homeowners are cost burdened. Cost burden
rates in Ashland are slightly greater compared to cost burdened rates in Jackson County.
Ashland needs more affordable housing types for homeowners. The median housing
sales price in typically stayed above $400,000 over the last three years. These prices are
unattainable for many households in the region.
A household earning 100% of Ashland’s median household income ($50,613) could
afford home valued between about $177,100 to $202,500, which is less than the median
home sales price of about $434,000 in Ashland. A household can start to afford median
home sale prices at about 167% of Ashland’s median household income.
Ashland needs more affordable housing types for renters. A household can start to
afford typical asking rents of currently available properties in Ashland at about 70% to
55
The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s guidelines indicate that households paying more than 30%
of their income on housing experience “cost burden,” and households paying more than 50% of their income on
housing experience “severe cost burden.”
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 70
96% of Ashland’s median household income. High rates of housing cost burden for
Ashland renters suggests a need for more affordable housing types for renters. Limited
multifamily housing was built in Ashland between 2010 and 2016. However, since 2017,
60% of new housing permitted was accessory dwelling unit or multifamily housing.
These factors suggest that Ashland needs a broader range of housing types with a wider range
of price points than are currently available in Ashland’s housing stock. This includes providing
opportunities for the development of housing types across the affordability spectrum such as:
single-family detached housing (e.g., small-lot single-family detached units, cottages, accessory
dwelling units, and “traditional” single-family), townhouses, duplexes, tri- and quad-plexes,
and multifamily structures with five or more units.
Exhibit 67 shows a preliminary forecast of needed housing in the Ashland UGB during the 2021
to 2041 period. The projection is based on the following assumptions:
Ashland’s official forecast for population growth shows that the City will add 1,691
people over the 20-year period. Exhibit 66 shows that the new population will result in
need for 858 new dwelling units over the 20-year period.
The assumptions about the mix of housing in Exhibit 67 are:
About 35% of new housing will be single-family detached, a category which
includes manufactured housing. About 66% of Ashland’s housing was single-family
detached in the 2014-2018 period. About 13% of new housing developed in Ashland
over the 2011 to 2020 period were accessory dwelling units (accessory residential
units). If 13% of Ashland’s new housing are accessory dwelling units, then 111 new
dwelling units may be accessory dwelling units.
Nearly 10% of new housing will be single-family attached. About 9% of Ashland’s
housing was single-family attached in the 2014-2018 period.
Nearly 20% of new housing will be duplexes, triplexes, or quadplexes. About 11%
of Ashland’s housing was duplex, triplex, or quadplex housing in the 2014-2018
period.
About 35% of new housing will be multifamily housing with five or more units
per structure. About 14% of Ashland’s housing was multifamily in the 2014-2018
period.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 71
Ashlandwill demand 858 Exhibit 67. Forecast of demand for new dwelling units, Ashland
new dwelling units over UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest.
the 20-year period, 35% of
which will be single-family
detached housing.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 72
Exhibit 68 allocates needed housing to Plan Designations in Ashland. The allocation is based, in
part, on the types of housing allowed in each Plan Designation. Exhibit 68 shows:
56
Low Density Residential land will accommodate new single-family detached and
attached housing and cottage cluster housing. North Mountain also accommodates
broadly defined “residential uses.”
Suburban Residential land will accommodate new single-family detached and attached
housing, multifamily housing (duplexes and larger).
Normal Neighborhood land will accommodate new single-family detached and
attached uses, cottage clusters, multifamily housing (duplexes and larger), and
manufactured housing on lots and in parks.
Multifamily Residential land will accommodate new single-family detached and
attached housing and multifamily housing (duplexes and larger).
High Density Residential land will accommodate new single-family detached and
attached housing and multifamily housing (duplexes and larger).
Croman Mill District land will accommodate new multifamily housing.
57
Commercial and Employment land will accommodate new multifamily housing.
Exhibit 68. Allocation of Needed Housing by Housing Type and Plan Designation, Ashland UGB, 2021
to 2041
Source: ECONorthwest.
56
This group includes the Single-Family Rural Reserve, Low Density Residential, Single Family Residential, and
North Mountain Plan Designations.
57
The group includes the Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University Plan
Designations.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 73
Needed Housing by Income Level
The next step in the Housing Capacity Analysis is to develop an estimate of need for housing by
income and housing type. This analysis requires an estimate of the income distribution of
current and future households in the community. Estimates presented in this section are based
on secondary data from the Census and analysis by ECONorthwest.
The analysis in Exhibit 69 is based on Census data about household income levels for existing
households in Ashland. Income is distributed into market segments consistent with HUD
income level categories using Jackson County’s 2020 Median Family Income (MFI) of $65,100.
The estimate assumes that approximately the same percentage of households will be in each
market segment in the future.
About 32% of Ashland’s Exhibit 69. Future (New) Households by Median Family Income (MFI)
future households will have for Jackson County ($65,100), Ashland, 2021 to 2041
Source: U.S. Department of HUD, Jackson County, 2020. U.S. Census Bureau,
income below 50% of
2015-2019 ACS Table 19001.
Jackson County’s median
family income (less than
$32,550 in 2019 dollars).
About31%will have
incomes between 50% and
120% of the county’s MFI
(between $32,550 and
$78,120).
This graph shows that, as
Ashland’s population grows,
Ashland will continue to
have demand for housing
across the affordability
spectrum.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 74
Other Housing Needs
ORSs 197.303, 197.307, 197.312, and 197.314 require cities to plan for government-assisted
housing, farmworker housing, manufactured housing on lots and in parks, and housing for
people with disabilities and people experiencing homelessness.
Government-subsidized housing. Government subsidies can apply to all housing types
(e.g., single family detached, apartments, etc.). Ashland allows development of
government-assisted housing in all residential Plan Designations, with the same
development standards for market-rate housing. This analysis assumes that Ashland
will continue to allow government-subsidized housing in all of its residential Plan
Designations. Because government-assisted housing is similar in character to other
housing (with the exception being the subsidies), it is not necessary to develop separate
forecasts for government-subsidized housing.
Farmworker housing. Farmworker housing can also apply to all housing types. The
City allows development of farmworker housing in all residential zones with the same
development standards as market-rate housing. This analysis assumes that Ashland will
continue to allow farmworker housing in all of its residential zones. Because it is similar
in character to other housing (with the possible exception of government subsidies, if
population restricted), it is not necessary to develop separate forecasts for farmworker
housing. To the extent that farmworkers have lower than average incomes, they, like
other low-income households, may have difficulty finding affordable housing in
Ashland.
Manufactured housing on lots. Ashland explicitly allows manufactured homes on lots
in its Normal Neighborhood Plan Designation, which is composed of the NN-1.5, NN 1-
3.5, NN 1-3.5a, and the NN-2 zone. In addition, manufactured homes on lots are
permitted with special use standards in the R-1, R-1-3.5, R-2, and R-3 zone.
Manufactured housing in parks. Ashland allows manufactured homes in parks
(referred to as Manufactured Housing Developments in Ashland’s code) in the R-1-3.5
and the R-2 zone, except within the Historic District Overlay. In addition, manufactured
homes in parks are allowed in the Normal Neighborhood, which is composed of the
NN-1.5, NN 1-3.5, NN 1-3.5a, and the NN-2 zone. OAR 197.480(4) requires cities to
inventory their mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks sited in areas planned and
zoned for (or generally used for) commercial, industrial, or high-density residential
development. According to the Oregon Housing and Community Services’
58
Ashland has four manufactured home parks
Manufactured Dwelling Park Directory,
within its UGB, with 255 spaces.
ORS 197.480(2) also requires Ashlandto project need for mobile home or
manufactured dwelling parks based on: (1) population projections, (2) household
income levels, (3) housing market trends, and (4) an inventory of manufactured
58
Oregon Housing and Community Services, Oregon Manufactured Dwelling Park Directory.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 75
dwelling parks sited in areas planned and zoned or generally used for commercial,
industrial, or high density residential.
Exhibit 66shows that Ashland will grow by 858dwelling units over the 2021to 2041
period.
Analysis of housing affordability shows that about 32% of Ashland’s new
households will be considered very-low or extremely-low-income, earning 50% or
less of the region’s median family income or less. One type of housing affordable to
these households is manufactured housing.
Manufactured housing accounts for about 2% (about 225 dwelling units) of
Ashland’s current housing stock within city limits. At 2% of all housing, Ashland
may have 17 new manufactured units over the planning period.
National, state, and regional trends since 2000 showed that manufactured housing
parks are closing rather than being created. For example, between 2000 and 2015,
Oregon had 68 manufactured parks close, with more than 2,700 spaces. Discussions
with several stakeholders familiar with manufactured home park trends suggest that
over the same period, few to no new manufactured home parks have opened in
Oregon.
The households most likely to live in manufactured homes in parks are those with
incomes between $19,530 and $32,550 (30% to 50% of MFI), which includes 13% of
Ashland’s households. However, households in other income categories may live in
manufactured homes in parks.
National and state trends of closure of manufactured home parks, and the fact that
no new manufactured home parks have opened in Oregon in over the last 15 years,
demonstrate that development of new manufactured home parks in Ashland is
unlikely. Thus, our conclusion from this analysis is that development of new
manufactured home parks or subdivisions in Ashland over the 2021-2041 planning
period is unlikely.
The forecast of housing assumes that no new manufactured home parks will be
opened in Ashland over the 2021-2041 period. However, if the City has need for a
new manufactured home park, it would be for 24 new units (2.8% of new units),
which at about 8 dwelling units per acre will need three acres of land. The City has
sufficient capacity if a new manufactured home park was developed in Ashland to
accommodate it (in the R-2 or R-3 zones). The housing forecast includes new
manufactured homes on lots in the category of single-family detached housing and
the City has capacity for them in the R-1 zone).
Over the next 20 years (or longer) one or more manufactured home parks may close
in Ashland. This may be a result of manufactured home park landowners selling or
redeveloping their land for uses with higher rates of return, rather than lack of
demand for spaces in manufactured home parks. Manufactured home parks
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 76
contribute to the supply of low-cost affordable housing options, especially for
affordable homeownership.
While there is statewide regulation to lessen the financial difficulties of
59
manufactured home park closures for park residents,the City has a role to play in
ensuring that there are opportunities for housing for the displaced residents. The
City’s primary roles are to ensure that there is sufficient land zoned for new
multifamily housing and to reduce barriers to residential development to allow for
development of new, relatively affordable housing.
In addition to these required housing types, this section also addresses housing for people with
disabilities and housing for people experiencing homelessness.
Housing for People with Disabilities. Housing for people with disabilities can be any
housing type. It can also apply to other residential/group living uses (such as nursing
homes, residential care homes or facilities, or room and boarding facilities) as well as
government-subsidized housing (including units which are population restricted).
Broadly, housing options for people with disabilities include (1) living in housing
independently – alone or with roommates/family, (2) living in housing with supportive
services (e.g., with help from a live-in or visiting caregiver), or (3) living in housing in a
supervised residential setting. Housing for people with disabilities may include physical
characteristics needed to address disabilities (such as ramps or wider doorways for
people with ambulatory disabilities), services for people with cognitive or other
disabilities, or adaptations needed by people with other disabilities. Ashland may want
to consider policies to support housing for people with disabilities.
Housing for People Experiencing Homelessness. Housing for people experiencing
homelessness can apply to all housing types, with the same development standards as
market-rate housing. It can also apply to other residential/group living uses and
government-subsidized housing. Housing needs for people experiencing homelessness
range, including temporary shelter to rapid re-housing, permanently supportive
housing, rental assistance, and income-restricted affordable housing.
59
ORS 90.645 regulates rules about closure of manufactured dwelling parks. It requires that the landlord must do the
following for manufactured dwelling park tenants before closure of the park: give at least one year’s notice of park
closure, pay the tenant between $5,000 to $9,000 for each manufactured dwelling park space, and cannot charge
tenants for demolition costs of abandoned manufactured homes.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 77
6.Residential Land Sufficiency in Ashland
This chapter presents an evaluation of the sufficiency of vacant residential land in Ashland to
accommodate expected residential growth over the 2021 to 2041 period. This chapter includes
an estimate of residential development capacity (measured in new dwelling units) and an
estimate of Ashland’s ability to accommodate needed new housing units for the 2021 to 2041
period, based on the analysis in the Housing Capacity Analysis. The chapter ends with a
discussion of the conclusions and recommendations for the Housing Capacity Analysis.
Capacity Analysis
The buildable lands inventory summarized in Chapter 2 (and presented in full in Appendix B)
provided a supply analysis (buildable land by type), and Chapter 5 provided a demand analysis
(population and growth leading to demand for more residential development). The comparison
of supply and demand allows the determination of land sufficiency.
The Ashland Buildable Lands Analysis (in Appendices B and C) presents an estimate of
capacity for new housing in Ashland. The capacity analysis shows capacity of land within city
limits distinct from the capacity of land in the urbanizing area (the area between the city limits
and urban growth boundary). The reason for presenting information this way is to address one
of the concerns expressed by members of the Project Advisory Committee (and echoed by
members of the Ashland HHSC and Planning Commission) about whether Ashland has enough
capacity to accommodate the forecast of housing solely on lands within the city limits.
Annexing land into the city limits from the urbanizing area (the area between the city limits and
urban growth boundary) can be time consuming and require greater infrastructure costs,
creating barriers to development.
Exhibit 76 and Exhibit 78 in Appendix C show dwelling unit capacity in 2020 for areas within
the city limits and within the urbanizing area, excluding land were development occurred
between 7/1/2019 and 6/30/2020. Exhibit 70 summarizes the results of these tables. Ashland has
capacity for 1,455 dwelling units within its city limits and 1,299 dwelling units in the urbanizing
area. Altogether, Ashland has capacity for 2,754 dwelling units on buildable land within its
urban growth boundary.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 78
Exhibit 70. Estimated capacity, Ashland city limits and urbanizing area, 2020
Source: Buildable Lands Inventory; Calculations by ECONorthwest.*Note: Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single
family residential, and North Mountain
Commercial & Employment includes Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University
This estimate excludes the Woodland Plan Designation, which is intended for minimal development and only has capacity for 12 dwelling
units
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 79
Residential Land Sufficiency
The next step in the analysis of the sufficiency of residential land within Ashland is to compare
the demand for housing by Plan Designation (Exhibit 68) with the capacity of land by Plan
shows that Ashland has sufficient land to accommodate
Designation (Exhibit 70). Exhibit 71
housing development within the urban growth boundary. In total, Ashland is forecast to grow
by 858 dwelling units and has capacity for 2,754 dwelling units.
Accommodating this growth will require annexing land into the city limits. In particular,
development of 231 dwelling units in the Normal Neighborhood will require annexation of land
from the urbanizing area into the city limits. While Exhibit 71 shows assumes that land within
the city limits will develop before development occurs on land in the urbanizing area, in all
likelihood, some land in the urbanizing area may annex and develop before some land within
the city limits.
Exhibit 71. Preliminary comparison of capacity of existing residential land with demand for new
dwelling units and land surplus or deficit, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Buildable Lands Inventory; Calculations by ECONorthwest.
*Note: Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single family residential, and North Mountain
Commercial & Employment includes Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 80
For the 2021 to 2041 planning period, 57 group quarter units were deducted from the housing
forecast. The analysis still must account for their land need. For purposes of this analysis, new
group quarters are assumed to develop proportionally in the Normal Neighborhood,
Multifamily Residential, and High-Density Residential Plan Designations, shown in Exhibit 72.
Exhibit 72. Land Needed for Group Quarters, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest.
Note: Group quarters assumes one person per dwelling unit.
*Note: Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single family residential, and North Mountain
Commercial & Employment includes Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 81
Exhibit 73 presents a revised version of Exhibit 71 to account for land needed for new dwelling
units as well as group quarters. In summary:
60
Low Density Residential Plan Designations have a surplus capacity of 764 dwelling
units (with 368 dwelling units inside Ashland’s City Limits and 396 dwelling units
inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Suburban Residential Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 26 dwelling units (all of
which are inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Normal Neighborhood Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 224 dwelling units (all
of which are inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Multifamily Residential Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 158 dwelling units
(all of which are inside Ashland’s urbanizing area).
High Density Residential Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 15 dwelling units
(all of which are inside Ashland’s City Limits).
Croman Mill District Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 209 dwelling units (with
49 dwelling units inside Ashland’s City Limits and 160 dwelling units inside Ashland’s
urbanizing area).
Commercial and Employment Plan Designation has a surplus capacity of 443 dwelling
units (with 389 dwelling units inside Ashland’s City Limits and 54 dwelling units inside
Ashland’s urbanizing area).
Exhibit 73. Final comparison of capacity of existing residential land with demand for new dwelling
units and land surplus or deficit, Ashland UGB, 2021 to 2041
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest.
*Note: Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single family residential, and North Mountain
Commercial & Employment includes Commercial, Employment, Downtown, Health Care, and Southern Oregon University
60
Low Density Residential includes SFRR, Low Density, Single family residential, and North Mountain
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 82
Conclusions
The key findings of the Ashland’s Housing Capacity Analysis are that:
Ashland’s population is forecast to grow at a similar pace as in the past. Ashland UGB
is forecast to grow from 21,936 people in 2021 to 23,627 people in 2041, an increase of
1,691 people. This population growth will occur at an average annual growth rate of
0.37%.
Ashland is planning for 858 new dwelling units. The growth of 1,691 people will result
in demand for 858 new dwelling units over the 20-year planning period, averaging 43
new dwelling units annually.
Ashland has enough land to accommodate its housing forecast between 2021 and
2041. Ashland can accommodate growth (858 dwelling units) over the next 20-years with
a surplus of capacity remaining. However, some development in Ashland’s Suburban
Residential, Normal Neighborhood, and Multifamily Residential Plan Designations will
need to be accommodated in the city’s urbanizing area.
Ashland has unmet needs for affordable housing. About 63% of Ashland’s households
that rent are cost burdened (with 35% severely cost burdened) and 31% of Ashland’s
households that own their own home are cost burdened. Ashland has unmet housing
needs for households with extremely-low and very-low-income households, as well as
households with low- and middle-income.
About 32% of Ashland’s households have extremely low-income or very low-income, with
household income below $32,600. At most, these households can afford $820 in monthly
housing costs. Median gross rent in Ashland was $1,003 in the 2014-2018 period and
has increased since. Home sales are very rarely affordable to households with these
levels of income. This is shown in the high rates of cost burden for renters, with
nearly 51% of renter households in cost burdened. Development of housing
affordable to these households rarely occurs without government subsidy or other
assistance. Meeting the housing needs of extremely-low-income households and
very-low-income households will be a challenge to Ashland, as it is in all cities.
About 31% of Ashland’s households are low-income or middle-income, with household
income between $32,600 and $78,100. These households can afford between $820 to
$1,950 in monthly housing costs. Households at the lower end of this income
category may struggle to find affordable rental housing, especially with growing
costs of rental housing across Southern Oregon. Middle-income households may still
struggle to afford Ashland’s median home sales price of $434,400. Development of
rental housing affordable to households in this income category, especially those at
middle-income, can occur without government subsidy but the City’s zoning code
will need to provide opportunities for development of a wider range of housing
types in more places to accommodate more of this type of housing (as shown in
Exhibit 64). Homeownership opportunities for households in this income category
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 83
may be limited to existing housing, unless there are opportunities to build new
housing at lower costs.
Over the 2021 to 2041 period, Ashland will need to plan for more multifamily
dwelling units in the future to meet the City’s housing needs. Historically, about 66%
of Ashland’s housing was single-family detached. While 35% of new housing in Ashland
is forecast to be single-family detached, the City will need to provide opportunities for
development of new single-family attached (10% of new housing); duplex, triplex, and
quadplex housing (10% of new housing); and multifamily units (35% of new housing).
The factors driving the shift in types of housing needed in Ashland include changes
in demographics and decreases in housing affordability. The aging of the baby
boomers and the household formation of the millennials and Generation Z will drive
demand for renter- and owner-occupied housing, such as single-family detached
housing, townhouses, duplexes, tri- and quad-plexes, and apartments. Both groups
may prefer housing in walkable neighborhoods, with access to services.
About 46% of Ashland’s households are cost burdened (paying more than 30% of
their income on housing), including a cost burden rate of 63% for renter households.
Without the diversification of housing types, lack of affordability will continue to be
a problem, possibly growing in the future if incomes continue to grow at a slower
rate than housing costs. A continuation of the current situation into the future
suggests that 273 of Ashland’s new households will have incomes of $32,600 (in 2019
dollars) or less. These households often cannot afford market-rate housing without
government subsidy. More than 268 of Ashland’s new households will have incomes
between $32,600 and $78,100. These households will all need access to affordable
housing, such as the housing types described above.
The memorandum Ashland Housing Strategy (Appendix A of this report) was developed to
present recommendations for policy changes to address Ashland’s unmet housing needs. Based
on this Housing Capacity Analysis report and using the Ashland Housing Strategy for guidance,
Ashland will need to develop a Housing Production Strategy within one year of adoption of
this report. The Housing Production Strategy will further describe Ashland’s housing needs,
based on the information in this report, and will include specific strategies to address Ashland’s
unmet housing needs.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 84
Appendix A: Ashland Housing Strategy
This appendix presents Ashland’s Housing Strategy memorandum, developed with the
Housing Capacity Analysis.
DATE: April 26, 2021
TO: City of Ashland Planning Commission and Housing and Human Services Commission
FROM: Beth Goodman, ECONorthwest
SUBJECT:FINAL ASHLAND HOUSING STRATEGY
ECONorthwest is working with the City of Ashland to develop a Housing Capacity Analysis.
The Housing Capacity Analysis will determine whether the City of Ashland has enough land to
accommodate 20 years of population and housing growth. In addition to this analysis,
ECONorthwest is working with the City of Ashland and an advisory committee to develop a
Housing Strategy. The Housing Strategy is meant to propose actions that can address Ashland’s
strategy housing priorities.
This project is funded by Oregon general fund dollars through the Department of Land
Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the
views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Ashland Housing Strategy
Ashland’s housing strategy presents a comprehensive package of interrelated actions that the
Ashland HCA Advisory Committee has evaluated, with input from the Planning Commission
and Housing and Human Services Commission, to implement and address the City’s strategic
housing priorities over the next eight years.
The City will need to develop a Housing Production Strategy within one year of adopting the
Housing Capacity Analysis. This Housing Strategy will provide the City with a starting point
for the Housing Production Strategy. Developing the Housing Production Strategy will involve
revisiting the recommended actions in this document, providing more detail about each
strategy, setting an implementation schedule, getting stakeholder input on the strategies in this
document, and assessing whether there are additional strategies that should be incorporated
into the Housing Production Strategy. Implementation of the Housing Production Strategy will
occur over an eight year period and will require additional public and stakeholder involvement.
Introduction
Ashland last updated its Comprehensive Plan, including policies in the Housing Element, in
June 2019. As a result, Ashland does not need an analysis to revise all of its housing policies in
the Comprehensive Plan. The City needs a housing strategy that provides guidance on
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 85
strategies the City could implement to meet the unmet housing needs identified in the Housing
Capacity Analysis.
This housing strategy recognizes that the City does not build housing. The strategy focuses on
tools to ensure there is adequate land planned and zoned to meet the variety of housing needs
and opportunities for a variety of housing types, whether market rate or subsidized. This
strategy strives to provide opportunities for lower-cost market rate housing, to the extent
possible, to achieve more housing affordability without complete reliance on subsidies if and
when possible.
The housing strategy primarily addresses the needs of households with middle, low, very low,
or extremely low income. It distinguishes between two types of affordable housing: (1) housing
affordable to very low-income and extremely low-income households and (2) housing
affordable to low-income and middle-income households. The following describes these
households, based on information from the Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis.
Very-low-income and extremely-low-income households are those who have an
61
income of 50% or less of Jackson County Median Family Income (MFI) which is an
annual household income of $32,600. About 34% of Ashland’s households fit into this
62
Development of
category. They can afford a monthly housing cost of $820 or less.
housing affordable to households at this income level is generally accomplished through
development of government-subsidized income-restricted housing.
Low-income and middle-income households are those who have an income of 50% to
120% of Jackson County’s MFI or income between $32,600 to $78,100. About 31% of
Ashland’s households fit into this category. They can afford a monthly housing cost of
$820 to $1,630. The private housing market may develop housing affordable to
households in this group, especially for the higher income households in the group.
Summary and Schedule of Actions
Exhibit 74 presents a summary of actions items, listed in this strategy. This strategy recognizes
that some actions will be more productive than others; thus, Exhibit 74 also identifies the scale
of impact for each action. A low impact strategy may result in 1% or less of new housing, a
moderate impact strategy may result in 1% to 5% of new housing, and a high impact strategy
may result in 5% or more of new housing.
61
Median Family Income is determined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. In 2020,
Jackson County’s MFI was $65,100.
62
This assumes that households pay less than 30% of their gross income on housing costs, including rent or
mortgage, utilities, home insurance, and property taxes.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 86
Exhibit 74. Summary and Schedule of Actions
Source: Summarized by ECONorthwest.
Scale of Impact
Action
LowModerate High
Strategy 1: Ensure an adequate supply of land is available and serviced
Evaluate increasing the maximum allowed densities in the
1.1 Multi-Family Residential (R-2), High Density Residential (R-3),
X
and parts of the Normal Neighborhood designations.
Evaluate increasing allowed height in the R-2 and R-3 multi-
1.2 family residential zones, outside of designated historic
X
districts.
Identify opportunities to increase allowances for residential
1.3 uses on the ground floor of buildings within commercial and
X
employment zones.
1.4 Evaluate decreasing multifamily parking requirements.
X
Evaluate decreasing parking requirements for affordable
1.5 X
housing developments in areas with access to transit.
Evaluate increasing lot coverage allowances slightly in the R-2
1.6
X
and R-3 zones.
Identify opportunities to create greater certainty and clarity in
1.7
X
the annexation process
Evaluate changes to Ashland’s zoning code to disallow single-
1.8 family detached housing in the High Density Residential Plan
X
Designation (R-3 zone).
Increase supply of High Density Residential lands by rezoning
1.9 lands within lower density Plan Designations that have a
X
surplus of capacity.
Create processes and materials necessary to support
1.10
X
developers in their development applications.
Strategy 2: Provide opportunities for housing development to meet the City’s identified housing needs
Broaden the definition of dwelling unit to include other types
2.1 of units such as shared housing and co-housing, single-room
X
occupancies, and other dwelling units.
Evaluate opportunities incentivize smaller units through
2.2
X
amendments to allowable densities.
Identify and reduce any local obstacles to building with less
2.3
X
conventional construction materials.
Evaluate increasing allowances for residential dwellings in
commercial and employment zones, such as allowing an
2.4
X
increased amount of residential uses in ground floor
commercial spaces..
2.5 Develop an equitable housing plan.
X
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 87
Scale of Impact
Action
LowModerate High
Encourage development of diverse housing types in high
2.6
X
opportunity neighborhood.
Strategy 3: Provide opportunities for development affordable to all income levels
Create processes and materials necessary to support
3.1
X
developers in development of affordable housing.
3.2 Evaluate using the Multiple Unit Property Tax Exemption.
X
Adopt a property tax exemption program for affordable rental
3.3 housing developed by nonprofit affordable housing
X
developers.
3.4 Evaluate participating in or establish a land bank.
X
Evaluate opportunities to participate in a land trust to manage
and develop housing that is affordable for rent or ownership at
3.5 X
below-market pricing for households earning 120% or less of
MFI (or possibly 80% or less of MFI).
Evaluate whether the City or other public agencies have
3.6 vacant or redevelopable publicly owned property could be X
used for development of affordable housing.
Identify opportunities to purchase land in Ashland’s urbanizing
3.7 area (within the Ashland UGB and outside of the City limits) as
X
part of a land banking strategy.
Identify partnerships with area employers to increase
3.8
X
development of housing affordable to workers in Ashland.
Continue to collaborate with community partnerstowork
3.9 towards providing housing and support services to alleviate
X
homelessness.
Evaluate opportunities to make development of housing less
3.10
X
costly to the development through changes in City fees.
Strategy 4: Identify funding sources to support development of infrastructure and housing
affordability programs
4.1 Evaluate establishing a Construction Excise Tax.
X
Evaluate using Urban Renewal to support development of
4.2
X
infrastructure necessary to support housing development.
Coordinate Capital Improvements Program and Transportation
4.3
X
System Plan infrastructure investments.
Continue to identify a variety of funding sources to support the
4.4 X
Affordable Housing Trust Fund.
Identify additional funds to support development of new
4.5
X
affordable housing.
Strategy 5: Align housing planning with the Climate and Energy Action Plan
Evaluate opportunities to decrease dependence on
5.1
X
automotive transportation in areas planned for housing.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 88
Scale of Impact
Action
LowModerate High
Evaluate opportunities to incorporate elements of the CEAP
5.2 X
into housing developments.
Initiate a process to identify opportunities for development or
5.3 redevelopment of mixed-use districts and initiate an area
X
planning process to guide redevelopment.
Evaluate opportunities to develop new housing closer to
5.4 downtown and commercial centers to reduce dependance on
X
automobiles for transportation.
Evaluate opportunities for planning transit-oriented
5.5
X
development as transit becomes more available in Ashland.
Evaluate sustainable building practices, including
certifications, to determine whether the City should offer
5.6
X
incentives for certification or require certification of new
buildings as sustainable.
Strategic Issue 1: Ensure an adequate supply of land is available
and serviced
This strategy is about ensuring an adequate land supply—not only a 20-year supply (as Goal 10
requires) but also a pipeline of serviced land that is available for immediate development. The
following recommended strategies and actions are intended to ensure an adequate supply of
residential land through a combination of changes to development standards, annexation
policies, and other changes. Efficient use of Ashland’s residential land is key to ensuring that
Ashland has adequate opportunities to grow from 2021 to 2041 and beyond.
Issue Statement
Statewide planning Goal 10 (Housing) requires cities to inventory residential lands and provide
a 20-year supply of land for residential uses. Moreover, land in the UGB is not necessarily
development ready. Land requires the full suite of backbone services (water, wastewater,
transportation) before it is development ready. The experience throughout Oregon in recent
years is that the cost of services is increasing, and cities are turning to creative ways to finance
infrastructure. This priority addresses both long- and short-term supply and availability of land.
a)Provide a 20-year supply of land for residential use. The HNA concluded that Ashland
has enough residential land and housing capacity within the Ashland UGB.
b)Ensure short-term supply to support development. Land in the UGB is not necessarily
development ready. Land requires the full suite of backbone services (water,
wastewater, transportation) before it is development ready. In addition, HCA Advisory
Committee members suggested that there were opportunities to improve the
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 89
annexation process for bringing land from Ashland’s urbanizing area into the city
limits by creating greater certainty that in turn could expedite approvals and reduce
costs.
The Housing Capacity Analysis provides a thorough analysis of the existing supply and
affordability of housing in Ashland. It concludes that Ashland will need 858 new housing units
between 2021 and 2041. It shows that Ashland has sufficient land within the UGB to
accommodate growth over the 2021-2041 period but has very limited capacity (and nearly a
deficit of land) for housing in the High-Density Residential zone. Ashland is expected to add
1,691 people, resulting in demand for 858 dwelling units. Ashland has capacity for development
of 2,754 dwelling units within the UGB under current policies, with much (36%) of the current
capacity within Low Density Residential Plan Designations.
However, about 1,299 dwelling units of total capacity (47%) is in the urbanizing area (the area
between the city limits and UGB) and will require annexation before development occurs. The
Plan Designations with the most capacity in the urbanizing area are Normal Neighborhood and
Single-Family Residential.
Ashland needs land that is vacant with urban services that support residential development
such as municipal water service, sewer and wastewater service, stormwater management
systems, and transportation connections with adequate capacity to accommodate growth. A
part of ensuring that there are development opportunities is making zoning code changes to
allow for a wider range of development, especially multifamily housing types, and streamlining
the annexation and development process to make annexation faster and provide more
predictability in the process to developers.
Recommended Actions
The recommended actions to address Strategic Issue 1 under consideration include:
Action 1.1: Evaluate increasing the maximum allowed densities, or removing density
limitations, in the Multi-Family Residential (R-2), High Density Residential (R-3), and
parts of the Normal Neighborhood designations. Prior analysis shows that two to three
as many units per acre as allowed under the current density standards can potentially fit
63
on a typical site with limited changes to other development standards.Higher
densities are especially important for small infill sites where efficiency is at a premium.
Allowing more housing on a given infill site helps the City meet its housing needs with
less outward expansion and spreads the land and infrastructure cost across more units.
Action 1.2: Evaluate increasing allowed height in the R-2 and R-3 multi-family
residential zones, outside of designated historic districts,
35 to at least 40 feet.
63
ECONorthwest, Ashland Housing Strategy Implementation Plan, June 2019.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 90
Action 1.3: Identify opportunities to increase allowances for residential uses on the
ground floor of buildings within commercial and employment zones.
Action 1.4: Evaluate decreasing multifamily parking requirements. Parking reductions
increase efficiency and reduce costs when combined with increases in density. In
addition, parking reductions may be an important part of Strategic Issue 5, Action 5.1.
Action 1.5: Evaluate decreasing parking requirements for affordable housing
developments in areas with access to transit. In addition, parking reductions may be an
important part of Strategic Issue 5, Action 5.1.
Action 1.6: Evaluate increasing lot coverage allowances slightly in the R-2 and R-3 zones
to support the other code amendments discussed in Actions 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3.
Action 1.7: Identify opportunities to create greater certainty and clarity in the annexation
process through evaluation of the level of design necessary for assessment of compliance
with development standards, with the goal of reducing the time and expense of
preparing annexation applications.
Action 1.8: Evaluate changes to Ashland’s zoning code to disallow single-family
detached housing in the High Density Residential Plan Designation (R-3 zone), to
preserve this zone for higher-density housing. Such a change would not include very
small existing lots, where single-family detached housing is all that is buildable.
Action 1.9: Increase supply of High Density Residential lands by rezoning lands within
lower density Plan Designations that have a surplus of capacity, such as land in the
Single-Family Residential Plan Designation. The purpose of increasing the supply of
High Density Residential land is that Ashland has a small surplus of land in this zone
and increasing the supply now, while there is a surplus of land in other zones, provides
an opportunity to coordinate long-term planning for multifamily land with other
planning processes that the City engages in over the next five to 10 years.
Action 1.10: Create processes and materials necessary to support developers in their
development applications, with the purpose of increasing clarity and certainty of in the
development review process.
Areas for further consideration
The following are actions suggested by members of the HCA Advisory Committee, Planning
Commission, and Housing and Human Services Commission that should be further considered
by the City of Ashland as it develops it housing policies.
Evaluate revision to development standards that may result in lower density
development, such as requirements for traffic analysis for developments that generate
more than 50 trips per day.
Evaluate the impacts on housing capacity and density of development resulting from
Ashland’s physical and environmental constraints and water resources protection zone
overlays.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 91
Evaluate the impact of the Ashland Solar Ordinance on limiting development of multi-
story multifamily and mixed-use housing in consideration of energy conservation goals.
Evaluate requiring more housing as part of new development in commercial and
employment zones.
Evaluate allowing smaller single-family detached housing on 2,500 sq ft lots, such as
part of cottage clusters or stand-alone single-family detached units.
Identify opportunities to up-zone land from lower density to medium- or high-density
land, to provide more opportunities for developing smaller single-family units and
multifamily housing.
Strategic Issue 2: Provide opportunities for housing development
to meet the City’s identified housing needs
This strategy focuses on actions that are intended to ensure new residential structures
developed in Ashland are diverse and include affordable housing for households with incomes
below 60% of MFI, housing affordable to households with incomes of between 60% and 120% of
MFI, housing for families with children, low- to moderate-income households, senior housing,
and other housing products to achieve housing affordability for households and to meet
Ashland’s 20-year housing needs.
Issue Statement
Continued increases in housing costs may increase demand for denser housing (e.g.,
multifamily housing, single-family attached housing, and compact single-family detached
housing). To the extent that denser housing types are more affordable than larger housing types
(i.e., single-family detached units on larger lots, such as 2,500 square foot dwelling units on lots
larger than 5,000 square feet), continued increases in housing costs will increase demand for
denser housing.
Ashland’s housing mix in the 2015–2019 period was 66% single-family detached, 9% single-
family attached, 12% duplex/triplex/quadplex, and 13% multifamily with 5 or more units per
64
The HCA assumes that the housing mix of new dwelling units in Ashland will be
structure.
about 35% single-family detached, 10% single-family attached 20% duplex/triplex/quadplex,
and 35% multifamily with 5 or more units per structure.
To achieve this mix, Ashland will need to implement policies that allow a wider variety of
housing types, including smaller housing and housing produced with innovative processes or
building materials, as well as more mixed-use housing.
In addition, Ashland will allow for development of housing that is affordable to workers in
Ashland and is located in proximity to employment opportunities to attract needed labor force
for its employment and mixed-use lands. These types of housing include (but are not limited to)
64
Based on 2015–2019 ACS five-year estimates for Ashland.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 92
live-work units, “skinny” single-family detached housing, townhouses, cottage housing,
duplexes and triplexes, and less costly types of multifamily housing.
Ashland is in the process of amending the land use code to allow duplexes wherever a single-
family dwelling unit is permitted per the requirements of HB2001. Code amendments will be
enacted before July 1, 2021.
Recommended Actions
The recommended actions to address Strategic Issue 2 under consideration include:
Action 2.1: Broaden the definition of dwelling unit to include other types of units such as
shared housing and co-housing, single-room occupancies, and other dwelling units.
Broadening the definition of dwelling units, which would broaden the types of units
allowed in residential districts, would allow for greater flexibility of housing type.
Action 2.2: Evaluate opportunities incentivize smaller units through amendments to
allowable densities, such as allowing tiny house clusters or smaller units in medium
density zones such as units as small as 200 square feet.
Action 2.3: Identify and reduce any local obstacles to building with less conventional
construction materials, such as shipping containers, prefabricated construction
materials, 3-D printed materials, etc., with the purpose of allowing for development of
more affordable housing. However, the building code is managed and applied by the
State and not under local control.
Action 2.4: Evaluate increasing allowances for residential dwellings in commercial and
employment zones, such as allowing an increased amount of residential uses in ground
floor commercial spaces.
Action 2.5: Develop an equitable housing plan, which could include initial steps, action
plan with goals and a method to measure progress to achieve more equitable housing
and continuously examine ways to make improvements to the housing system to
achieve equity. The equitable housing plan could address the issues identified in the
2020-2024 Fair Housing Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice Update for the City of
Ashland. This report identified impediments such as: limited community awareness
about fair housing protections and resources, instances of discrimination in housing
transactions, and a lack of affordable housing.
Action 2.6: Encourage development of diverse housing types in high opportunity
65
with a goal of reversing historical patterns of racial, ethnic, cultural
neighborhoods,
and socio-economic exclusion.
65
HUD defines high opportunity neighborhoods as areas that have a positive effect on economic mobility of
residents, such as access to jobs, high quality schools, and lower concentration of poverty.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 93
Strategic Issue 3: Provide opportunities for development of
housing affordable to all income levels
The following recommended strategy and actions are intended to use a deliberate set of
mandates and incentives to support the development of new affordable housing and preserve
existing affordable housing.
Issue Statement
The Housing Capacity Analysis clearly identifies a lack of housing that is affordable to
households with lower and moderate incomes. It is clear that the private sector cannot feasibly
develop lower cost housing without government intervention. The amount of government
support that is available for lower cost housing is insufficient to meet identified needs.
Availability of housing that is affordable to households at all income levels is a key issue in
Ashland. For the purposes of this strategy, affordable housing is defined as: (1) housing for
very-low–income and extremely-low–income households at 50% or below the median family
66
$32,600 in 2020); (2) housing for low-income households with incomes between
income (MFI)
50% and 80% of the MFI ($32,600 to $52,100 in 2020); and (3) housing for middle-income
households with incomes between 80% and 120% of the MFI ($52,100 to $78,100 in 2020).
In Ashland, 63% of renter households and 31% of homeowner households are considered cost
burdened (paying more than 30% of their income on housing). These are households struggling
to find affordable housing, at all points along the income spectrum. This strategic priority is to
evaluate mechanisms (mandates and/or incentives) that will support development of affordable
housing in Ashland.
The City’s policy options for providing opportunities to build housing, especially affordable
housing (both market-rate and government-subsidized affordable housing) are limited. The
most substantial ways the City can encourage development of housing is through ensuring that
enough land is zoned for residential development and within the city limits, in addition to
assembling and purchasing land for affordable housing development, eliminating barriers to
residential development where possible, and providing infrastructure in a cost-effective way.
A key part of this strategy is providing informational resources to developers of housing
affordable to both very-low- and extremely-low-income households, as well as low- and
middle-income households. Smaller, local developers need resources to better understand the
kinds of support that is available to build more affordable housing, such as funding
opportunities, partnerships, etc. The affordable housing realm is very complex and existing
developers/builders would benefit from additional assistance and clarification about the
requirements for development and management of affordable housing, as well as City
66
Based on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Median Family Income of $65,100 for Jackson
County in 2020.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 94
assistance identifying potential non-profit affordable housing development partners that can
secure funding for affordable housing development.
In addition to supporting development, an important angle of this strategic priority is to
identify strategies that preserve naturally occurring affordable housing that already exists in
Ashland. Naturally occurring affordable housing are dwelling units that are unsubsidized, yet
affordable to households earning incomes below the area’s median household or family income.
Recommended Actions
The recommended actions to address Strategic Issue 3 under consideration include:
Action 3.1: Create processes and materials necessary to support developers in
development of affordable housing, with the purpose of making it easier to develop
affordable housing in Ashland. The City could act as a convener between “market-rate
developers” required to provide affordable housing and those nonprofits and other
organizations who are well versed in the complexities of developing affordable
67
housing.
Action 3.2: Evaluate using the Multiple Unit Property Tax Exemption to incentivize
preservation and development of housing for low- to middle-income households for
needed housing types.
Action 3.3: Adopt a property tax exemption program for affordable rental housing
developed by nonprofit affordable housing developers. Evaluate which of the two
available options under state statute is better suited to the needs of housing providers in
Ashland. The options are the Low-Income Rental Housing Tax Exemption and the
Nonprofit Corporation Low Income Housing Tax Exemption.
Action 3.4: Evaluate participating in or establish a land bank for development of housing
affordable to households within incomes below 80% of MFI for renters or below 120% of
MFI for homeowners. The land bank may best be run by a nonprofit, with the City
participating as a partner in the land bank.
Action 3.5: Evaluate opportunities to participate in a land trust to manage and develop
housing that is affordable for rent or ownership at below-market pricing for households
earning 120% or less of MFI (or possibly 80% or less of MFI).
Action 3.6: Evaluate whether the City or other public agencies have vacant or
redevelopable publicly owned property that is not being otherwise used and could be
used for development of affordable housing. This property could be used for affordable
housing, either as part of a land bank (Action 3.4) or directly in development of an
affordable housing project.
Action 3.7: Identify opportunities to purchase land in Ashland’s urbanizing area (within
the Ashland UGB and outside of the City limits) as part of a land banking strategy. The
67
The City of Medford is developing a toolkit to help developers gain support for development of affordable housing
in Medford. This toolkit may provide good ideas that could be customized for use in Ashland.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 95
City could acquire land and write down land costs for developers who are willing to
build housing either affordable to households with incomes below 60% of MFI or for
households with incomes between 60% and 80% of MFI.
Action 3.8: Identify partnerships with area employers to increase development of
housing affordable to workers in Ashland. Potential partnerships may be with Southern
Oregon University (SOU), for development of workforce housing for people employed
at SOU or students at SOU, Ashland School District, or with the Oregon Shakespeare
Festival.
Action 3.9: Continue to collaborate with community partners to work towards providing
housing and support services to alleviate homelessness for families with children,
domestic violence victims, veterans, and other vulnerable populations.
Action 3.10: Evaluate opportunities to make development of housing less costly to the
development through changes in City fees. For example, the City might allow a develop
to pay application fees over time, rather than requiring the fee at the beginning of the
development process. The City might also set a cap on application fees.
Areas for further consideration
The following are actions suggested by members of the HCA Advisory Committee, Planning
Commission, and Housing and Human Services Commission that should be further considered
by the City of Ashland as it develops it housing policies.
Identify opportunities to increase affordable homeownership for households with
children.
Identify barriers to development of housing that is affordable for families with children,
both regulated affordable housing and market-rate affordable housing. This could
include small changes to the zoning code to allow development of housing for families
with children.
Strategic Issue 4: Identify funding sources to support
development of infrastructure and housing affordability
programs
The following recommended strategy and actions are intended to consider a range of funding
tools that Ashland may implement and use to support residential development.
Issue Statement
A primary barrier to residential development, particularly for housing for very low-income and
low-income households, is costs and financing. This strategic priority intends to evaluate
opportunities for the City of Ashland to support needed residential development by evaluating
creative funding and financing mechanisms that reduce development costs. Funding
opportunities may include options to reduce the cost of land, reduce hard costs (such as
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 96
infrastructure development), and reduce soft costs (such as system development charges or
permit costs).
Recommended Actions
The recommended actions to address Strategic Issue 4 are:
Action 4.1: Evaluate establishing a Construction Excise Tax (CET) for residential,
68
When the City evaluates implementing a
commercial, and industrial development.
CET, the City should consider how much funding the CET could produce and decide if
that funding would meaningfully help in production of affordable housing. The City
may want to consider a methodology that exempts a portion of the permit value (such as
the first $100,000 or more permit value), as a way of focusing CET charges on units with
a higher permit value.
Action 4.2: Evaluate using Urban Renewal to support development of infrastructure
necessary to support housing development, as well as to support development of
housing affordable to households with incomes below 80% of MFI. For example, a Tax
Increment Financing (TIF) set-aside of a minimum of 30% for affordable housing
development to serve households earning 0-60% Median Family Income, to apply to
existing and future urban renewal areas in the City. TIF set-aside funds would also
potentially be available for affordable housing units within market rate, mixed-use and
mixed-income development. If the City wants to use Urban Renewal on areas currently
outside the city limits, the City will need to annex the land into the city limits before
implementing the Urban Renewal District.
Action 4.3: Coordinate Capital Improvements Program infrastructure investments and
Transportation System Plan to strategically develop needed infrastructure within areas
where residential growth is expected.
Action 4.4: Continue to identify a variety of funding sources to support the Affordable
Housing Trust Fund.
Action 4.5: Identify additional funds to support development of new affordable housing,
including housing options for people experiencing homelessness, increasing housing
stability and reducing risk of homelessness, and housing for households with incomes of
less than 60% of MFI. These funds may be contributed to Ashland’s existing Affordable
Housing Trust Fund. One funding option with substantial revenue potential is a General
Obligation (GO) bond. Cities or other jurisdictions can issue bonds backed by the full
faith and credit of the jurisdiction to pay for capital construction and improvements.
68
The Ashland School District has an existing CET of $1.07 per square foot of residential construction or $0.53 per
square foot of commercial construction.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 97
Strategic Issue 5: Align housing planning with the Climate and
Energy Action Plan
The following recommended strategy and actions are intended ensure that planning for
housing is aligned with Ashland’s plans for climate change.
Issue Statement
The City of Ashland adopted its Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP) in March of 2017 “to
reduce its emissions and improve its resilience to future impacts of climate change on its
69
The plan identified six strategic initiatives:
environment, infrastructure, and people.”
Transition to clean energy
Maximize conservation of water and energy
Support climate-friendly land use and management
Reduce consumption of carbon-intensive goods and services
Inform and work with residents, organizations, and government
Lead by example
To the extent possible, housing planning and actions to address Ashland’s housing needs
should emphasize these initiatives and allow them to guide decision-making. The nexus
between the CEAP and housing development includes:
Location of housing. Housing that is located in areas where less driving is necessary,
either through more use of transit or a closer location to services and work, may help the
City meet its CEAP goals. Some of Ashland’s residential development is located in areas
with access to transit and closer to services and employment, but some land does not
have these locational advantages. In addition, some people will choose to locate in
Ashland but work in other parts of the region.
Energy efficiency of housing development and the structures. Housing that is
developed with energy-efficient processes, uses energy-efficient materials, and operates
in an energy efficient way over time can also help the City meet its CEAP goals.
Increasing energy-efficiency can both increase development costs, through more
expensive materials or development process, as well as lower long-term energy costs.
Ashland should be careful to consider the advantages and disadvantages when
requiring energy-efficient development, to make sure that the requirements do not make
housing substantially less affordable in Ashland.
69
Climate and Energy Action Plan:
http://www.ashland.or.us/Files/Ashland%20Climate%20and%20Energy%20Action%20Plan_pages.pdf
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 98
Recommended Actions
The recommended actions to address Strategic Issue 5 are:
Action 5.1: Evaluate opportunities to decrease dependence on automotive transportation
in areas planned for housing, such as increased focus on development in walkable and
bikeable areas and increases in transit service (amount and frequency of transit, as well
as increased destinations for transit). The prior action that suggests parking reductions
(Action 1.3) may reduce reliance upon automobiles and decrease of impervious surfaces
dedicated to parked vehicles.
Action 5.2: Evaluate opportunities to incorporate elements of the CEAP into housing
developments, including increased energy efficiency, solar access, electrical vehicle
parking and charging opportunities, reduction of fossil fuels dependency, and increased
resilience to natural hazards resulting from a changing climate (such as the risk of
wildfire).
Action 5.3: Initiate a process to identify opportunities for development or
redevelopment of mixed-use districts and initiate an area planning process to guide
redevelopment.
Action 5.4: Evaluate opportunities to develop new housing closer to downtown and
commercial centers to reduce dependance on automobiles for transportation. For
example, redevelopment of the Railroad property provides such an opportunity.
Action 5.5: Evaluate opportunities for planning transit-oriented development as transit
becomes more available in Ashland, consistent with mixed-use planning.
Action 5.6: Evaluate sustainable building practices, including certifications, to determine
whether the City should offer incentives for certification or require certification of new
buildings as sustainable.
Potential Housing Policies and Actions
This section provides the City with information about potential policies that could be
implemented in Ashland to address the City’s housing needs. This appendix provides a range
of housing policy options for the City of Ashland to consider as it addresses its housing needs.
These policy options are commonly used by cities in Oregon and other states. Policy options are
categorized as follows:
Land Use Regulations
Increase Housing Types
Financial Assistance to Homeowners and Renters
Lower Development or Operational Costs
Funding Sources to Support Residential Development
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 99
The intention of this memorandum is to provide a toolbox of potential policies and actions that
the City can use to address strategic issues. For many of the policy tools described below, we
give an approximate scale of impact. The purpose of the scale of impact is to provide some
context for whether the policy tool generally results in a little or a lot of change in the
housing market. The scale of impact depends on conditions in the City, such as other the City’s
other existing (or newly implemented) housing policies, the land supply, and housing market
conditions. We define the scale of impact as follows:
A small impact may not directly result in development of new housing or it may result
in development of a small amount of new housing, such as 1% to 3% of the needed
housing. In terms of housing affordability, a small impact may not improve housing
affordability in and of itself. A policy with a small impact may be necessary but not
sufficient to increase housing affordability.
A moderate impact is likely to directly result in development of new housing, such as
3% to 5% of needed housing. In terms of housing affordability, a moderate impact may
not improve housing affordability in and of itself. A policy with a moderate impact may
be necessary but not sufficient to increase housing affordability.
A large impact is likely to directly result in development of new housing, such as 5% to
10% (or more) of needed housing. In terms of housing affordability, a large impact may
improve housing affordability in and of itself. A policy with a large impact may still
need to work with other policies to increase housing affordability.
ECONorthwest Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis 100
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Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
be
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prove
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erate
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105
housing
reducing
modand
Impact
could
requirements
or
to
of
City
developerneed
increase
Scale of Impact ScaleSmallThethethebenefitparkingtoaffordability.Reducing parking requirements can have a moderate to large impact on housing affordability if little or no parking is
required.
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riangle
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for units
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ithin the Transit
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Implementation in AshlandAshland provides parking reductions for small units wide (one space per unitunits 500 WOare reduced to one space per unitCottages of 800 SF or less withhousing
developments require one space per unit.Many parking credits may be allocated to projects including: An offeach onproperties frontage; joint use and mixedcredbetween a commercial use
and residential use when demonstrated their time of use is not in conflict); offparking; transit facilities credit; Transportation Demand Management plan implementation. Ashland does
not haspecific parking reduction available and regulated housing.
in
2
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The
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arkingreduce
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market
Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
requirements.
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offers p
developments
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106
impact
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zoning
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policy
relatively
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affordable housing
Implementation in AshlandAshland hasa “through the Street Standards and Transportation System Plan. Ashland does have ordinances that regulate the closure of manufactured home parks
and displacement of the as well as apartments into condominiums, wherein prior to tenant displacementand relocation assistance can be requiredAshlanddoes regulate demolitions but does
not have standards relating to tenant displacement. Ashland requires a percentage ofthe base density exclusive of unbuildable areas) annexations and zone changes for residential developments.
-
and
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Preservation
Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
payment
preservationreplacement
types
and/or
such
required,
income
room
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DescriptionThisslowinstreetstreetstoHousingdemolitionreplacementreplacement,existingfocusApproachesInclusionaryoranddevelopment.developershousing.density
Housing
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ActionReduceWidthPreservingExistingSupplyInclusionaryZoning
CON
E
the
by
107
adopted
Scale of Impact policiescity.
use
-
vacant low
’s newly
ndividual
I
in Plan, Croman
inclusionary zoning
.
imits for proposed structures
Rezoning land in Ashland is not a common practice.
Implementation in AshlandAshland has not implemented an inclusionary zoning ordinance for residential developments within the City Lcontaining 20 units or more under the StateapprovedlegislationThe
City has implemented a number of master planning Efforts (Normal Neighborhood, North MountaMill District) which have identified lands to be developed as multifamily or mixedproperty
owners have requested and received rezoning of their properties to multifamily zones for specific development proposals.However, there has not been an effort to examine density and
employment properties within the City Limits as candidates for a
development.
to
land,
to
or
new
housing
on
where
designate
corridors
-
multifamily
established
nclusionary
location,
adjacent
comparatively
from
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opportunities
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employment
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In
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for
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Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
income
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gram is resulting in production of affordable multifamily
in
is
capacityhousingorhousing).ThisaffordableforCities across Oregon frequently reland to address deficits of land for new housing.
DescriptionThepurchaserszoningresidentsforOregon’s inclusionary zoning laws 20 or more multifamily units, with inclusion of units that are affordable at 80% of the median family income
of the city.The City of Portland has implemented an inclusionary zoning program. prounits, there is considerable discussion and disagreement about the impact of number of multifamily
units being built and potential changes in the location of units. Thepartiallylanditsuchneighborhoodexistingland,
or
for
Name
land
designate
orthwest
-
ActionRerezonehousing
CON
E
108
Scale of Impact
can be modified in
ose ratios
Implementation in Ashlandcomprehensive plan and zone change to increase the supply of multifamily zoned properties. Mixed use projects arepermitted and encouraged in Ashland Commercial
and Employment zoned. There is current discussion regarding the percentage of the ground floor that is to be reserved for commercial uses and whether thconsideration of changing market
demands for in retail and office space.Ashland does not have a Transfer of Development Rights program or designated receiving zones. Ashland has four density bonuses, one of which
is for development of affordable housing at higher densities and
is
floor
uses
Such
used
be
desired
zones
or
zoning
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housing
housing
policy
where
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housing
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bonuses
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ial
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to
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to
(e.g.,through
projects
ofare
ities outside of Oregon.
both
requirements
Density
than
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encouragemore
useeliminate Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
commerc
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commercial
totoincrease
increase
zones
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or
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density
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local
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densities
commercial
retail)ThisdevelopmentincreaseCities across Oregon frequently encourage multifamily housing development in commercial zones, either as standbuildings.codedecreased(zonesTransfer of development
rights is done less frequently in Oregon, as cities generally zone land for higher density housing where they would like it to occur. This policy is frequently used by c
DescriptionThisaspoliciesdevelopmentincludeinThissensitiverightstradedusuallyTheatunderlyingas
in
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CON
E
109
Scale of Impact
of
of a 35%
.
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or less
efficient
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ng projects
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density bonus
.
over the base density
space, conservation) can
for a mi
Implementation in Ashlandanother for energyhousing. Affordable housimeeting eligibility requirements (including rental housing affordable to households at increase in density.The maxinclusive
of other bonuses (openbe 60%within the zone.Ashland’s Cottage Housing Development ordinance effectively provides a doubling of the allowable density in the zone for provision of the
small cottage housing units. Ashland classifies small units, of 500 SF or less, as only 75% of a unit for the purpodensity calculations. A greater number of small units can be developed
within existing density allowances without employing a density bonus.
AMI receive a density bonus of two units for each affordable unit provided, up to a max
.
the
if
of
of
for
of floor
SF
SF
affordable
zoning
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allow
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appropriate
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eements and restrictions to
requirements
housing
be
and
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income
to
-
provides
Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
can
code
certain
lowfoot building height bonus for multifamily
-
and three
units
-
offers density bonuses for duplex, triplex,
of
affordable
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project
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zoning
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, WA
densities
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housing
ing when affordable housing units are gained and for
local
floor area average per undensity of detached dwelling units in the underlying zone
Descriptionareas,strategytheresidentialBonusdevelopmenthousing.moreproposedunits.City of Bend offers affordable housing density and height bonuses. Qualifying affordable housing projects
are eligible for a 10housa density bonus. The density increase is based on the percentage of affordable housing units within the proposed development: if 10% of the units are affordable,
the maximum density is 110% of the standadensity. The maximum density bonus is 50% above the base density. Qualifying projects must be affordable to households at or below 60% of the
AMI for rental housing and at or below 80% of the AMI for ownership housing and require development agrensure continued affordability. Kirklandand cottages. Cottage homes (limitedarea)
and two
Name
orthwest
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of
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of
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as the types of housing newly
to
lots.
5
-
order
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in
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ousing
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Implemented in Ashland?
of
Ashland is in the process of amending the land use code to allow duplexes wherever a singlepermittrequirements of HB2001. Code amendments will be enacted before July 1, 2021.Ashland
passed a cottage housing ordinance in 2018 and allows cottage housing developments in the Rand Rthat are greater than 1.5 times the for the zone. Cottage Housing be between 3 to 12
units depending on lot size. TriTownhomes,Stacked Townhouses are permissible in Ashland’s
residents
of
types
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Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
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plemented
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111
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lowinghousingzoningprovidenumberrelativelyhousing
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Implemented in Ashland?
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vacant properties available in these zones, larger scale apartments are not often achisizes, height limitations, and density allowances.Lmixeda permitted use within commercial zonesnot
specifically listed in the allowable use table for either commercial orzonesare zoning designations with the exception of industrial (M
or other residential zones (Rplanned unit developments.
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CON
E
112
tiny
to
and
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for
impact
allow
law
where
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s
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occupied
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within the City.
DU) as an accessory use to
Implemented in Ashland?
Ashland allows Accessory Residential Units (ARU or Asinglethroughout the City, and further provides reduced SDCs for small units of less than 500 Per ORS 197.312 no additional parking
is required for ARUs in Ashland, and there has never been any ownerfor the development of an ARUSmall, or tiny, units that are built on a foundation are permitted in Ashland and have
been developed as ARUs. Tiny homes on wheels would have to be located in an RV park, and there are thus limited opportunities for their placement in Ashland. As an emergency provision
in response to the Almeda fire, RVs, campers, and trailers can be located on residential properties in Ashland as temporary shelter provided, they are connected to sanitation and ut
to
-
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to-
for
more
100
many
ADUs
500
single
owner
in
as
very
cities
single
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or
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ways:
increasing
and
of
of
small
allowing
that
similar
units
home
detached
accessoryhomeowners.
as
opportunities
requires
lots,
dwelling
detached
are
, reducing or
for
as
for
systems
tiny
are
variety
alone
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standards
dwellings(they
ADUsprovide
in
them
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197.312
primary
zoned
RVs),
development
for
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reducing
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parks
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allow
Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
in
include
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where
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2018,
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July
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homes as temporary shelter for people experiencing homelessness.
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Name
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in
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homes
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Action
Remove barriers to Development of AccessoryDwelling(ADUs)familyAllow“tiny”
CON
E
113
Ashland Housing Capacity Analysis
orthwest
CON
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housing
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.
Most recently the
available
cooperation with the
and
(AHTF)
Implemented in Ashland?The City has limited experience acquiring property for the future development of affordable housing, having acquired 10 acres on Clay Street in Housing Authority
of Jackson County. Over the last decade this property providelocation for 120 units of affordable housingdeveloped, 60 units under construction)The City typically relieaffordable housing
partnerto identify property for a proposed development and has provided financial assistance (CDBG or Affordable Housing Trust Fundacquisition. City helped purchase a parcel using
AHTF for Columbia Care to develop a 30affordable housing project.
development
in
for
affordability
kick
theto
with
directly
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Implemented in Ashland?There is no Land Bank There are 49 units within Ashland that are operated under the land Trust model. Beginning in 2000 the Ashland Community Land Trust developed
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organization focuses on affordable homeownership and controls ground leases associated with
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Ashland has dedicated surplus City property for the development of affordable housing or sold surplus City property and directed the proceeds into the Ashland Housing Trust Fund to support
affordabldevelopment. Ashland is a CDBG entitlement community and prioritizes the use of CDBG funds to support affordable housing development and preservation. Local nonaffordable
housing providers including ACLT, RVCDC, ACCESS Inc, Habitat foHumanity and the Housing Authority of Jackson County have utilized Ashland’s CDBG funds to acquire property or complete
public improvements for affordable housing developments.
Implemented in Ashland?transferred to NeighborWorks Umpqua for administration.Neighborgranted $50,000 in Ashland’s Affordable Housing Trust Furefining the legal structure of the land
trust agreements for use in Ashland.
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Implemented in Ashland?Ashland has not utilized the section 108 loan program to leverage up to 5 yeCDBG allocations for land acquisition for affordable housing. Ashland waives or defers
all System Development Charges including Parks, Transportation, Water, Sewer and Storm Water SDCs for qualified affordable housing units targeted to households earning 80% AMI or less
and meeting the rent or sale requirements of thHousing Program. Ashland waives Community Development Fees, and Engineering Services fees for voluntarily provided affordable housing
units that remain affordable for 60 years. Affordable ownership units that leave the program after 30 years, years, must repay a prorated amount of SDCs, Community Development Fees,
and Engineering Services Fees that were deferred.
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Ashland amended the SDC collection of charge provisions in 2019 withinAshland Municipal Code (4.20.090). These amendments allow SDCs to be paid over a 10in semi
Implemented in Ashland?Ashland’s SDC method charges 50% of the calculated per unit SDC amount for u500calculated per unit SDC amount for units between 500 and 800 units pay proportionately
less SDCs for Transportation, Parks, and Sewer compared todue to their potential for smcommensurate impacts. Storm Water SDCs are based on lot coveragsmaller units have lower Storm
Water SDCs. A oneshall not be subject to an annual interest rate provided all charges are paid prior to the City’sCertificate of Occupancy, time of sale, or within one
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can encourage development odetached units or cottage cluster units.Newport Oregon scales SDCs for water, wastewater, stormwater, and transportation. The City has a base SDC rate (per
SF) of built space. For example, a 1,000 SF unit wouldcharged $620 for water SDC ($0.62 per SF). A 2,000 SF unit would be charged $1,204 for the water SDC ($0.62 per SF for the first
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Implemented in Ashland?year of when the charge was imposed, whichever comes first.For installments that exceed one year, repayment interest on the unpaid balance at annual rate of six
percent (6%) is assessyear installment loan or seven percent (7%) for a 10year installment loan.Ashland has an Affordable Housing Trust Fund, and the City Council has dedicated Marijuana
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Implemented in Ashland?Ashland’s municipal code(13.30.0150) 2010 to enablerequest the City establish a Reimbursement District to collect public improvement costs that attributable to
service the property owned by the applicant. Examplesinclude (but are not limited to):instead of half street improvementssidewalks;street sections for continuity;Extension of water
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On December 15, 2020, Ashland passed a Vertical Housing Tax Credit and designated Commercially zoned properties within the Transit Triangle overlay area as an eligible Vertical Housing
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