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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2012-10-09_Planning PACKET Note: Anyyone wishing too speak at any Planning Commission meetinng is encourageed to do so. If you wish to sppeak, please risee and, after youu have been reecognized by thhe Chair, give yyour name and complete address for the reccord. You will then be allowed to speak. Pleaase note that thhe public testimmony may be limited by the CChair and normaally is not allowed after the Pubblic Hearing is cclosed. AASHLAND PLLANNING COOMMISSION REGUULAR MEETING OCTTOBER 9, 20112 AGENDA I. CALL TO ORDER: 7:00 PM, Ciic Center Cuncil Chambers, 1175 E. Main Street vvoo II.. ANNOOUNCEMENTTS IIII. CONSSENT AGENDDA A. Appproval of Minutes 1..August 28, 2012 Study SSession 2.. Septemberr 11, 2012 Reegular Meetingg IVV. PUBLIC FORUM V. UNFINNISHED BUSINESS Appproval of Finndings for PA-2012-011222, 175 Lithiaa Way. A. VI. TYPE II PUBLIC HEARING A. PLLANNING ACCTION: #20122-00899 SUUBJECT PROOPERTIES:AAshland Schoool District PProperties Ashland High School –– 201 S. Mountain Ave. Ashland MMiddle Schoool & John Muir School – 1100 Walker AAve. Bellview Elementary – 1070 Tolmann Creek Rd. Helman Eleementary Scchool – 705 HHelman St. Walker Eleementary Schhool – 364 WWalker Ave. Briscoe Scchool – 265 NN. Main St. Lincoln Scchool – Ashland School Adminnistrative Serrvices – 885 Siskiyou Blvvd. APPPLICANT: AAshland Schoool District DEESCRIPTIONN: A requestt for a Condditional Use Permit appproval for thhe creation oof a Maaster Sign PPermit Progrram for the Ashland Scchool Districct Propertiess. The program inttends to set parameters for materiall, location, area and heigght for new sschool signss as theey are needed. COMPREEHENSIVE PPLAN DESIGGNATION: Reesidential (MMulti-Family and Single Family)); ZONING: RR-2 and R-1--5; ASSESSOOR’S MAP && TAX LOT#: 391E09DA 1100; 3991E10 1200 && 3600; 391EE14CA 4700; 391E04BD 2900; 391E005DD 2500; 391E09DD 1100 3991E09DA 65000. VII. TYPE III PUBLIC HHEARING A. PLLANNING ACCTION: #20122-01266 APPPLICANT: CCity of Ashland DEESCRIPTIONN: Amending the City of AAshland Commprehensivee Plan to adoopt the Houssing Neeeds Analysiis. Inn compliance wwith the Americaans with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please coontact the Commmunity Develoopment office aat 541-488-53055 (TTY phone is 1-800-735-22900). Notificattion 48 hours pprior to the mmeeting will enaable the City to make reasonaable arrangemeents to ensure aaccessibility to the meeting (228 CFR 35.1022-35.104 ADDA Title 1). Note: Anyyone wishing too speak at any Planning Commission meetinng is encourageed to do so. If you wish to sppeak, please risee and, after youu have been reecognized by thhe Chair, give yyour name and complete address for the reccord. You will then be allowed to speak. Pleaase note that thhe public testimmony may be limited by the CChair and normaally is not allowed after the Pubblic Hearing is cclosed. VIII. DISCUUSSION ITEMMS A. Plaanning Commission Reccommendatioon on Unifiedd Policies annd Procedurees for City Coommissions and Committtees. IXX. ADJOURNMENT Inn compliance wwith the Americaans with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please coontact the Commmunity Develoopment office aat 541-488-53055 (TTY phone is 1-800-735-22900). Notificattion 48 hours pprior to the mmeeting will enaable the City to make reasonaable arrangemeents to ensure aaccessibility to the meeting (228 CFR 35.1022-35.104 ADDA Title 1). ASHLAND PLANNING COMMISSION STUDY SESSION MINUTES August 28, 2012 CALL TO ORDER Chair Melanie Mindlin called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m. in the Civic Center Council Chambers, 1175 East Main Street. Commissioners Present: Staff Present: Troy J. Brown, Jr. Bill Molnar, Community Development Director Michael Dawkins Brandon Goldman, Senior Planner Eric Heesacker Linda Reid, Housing Program Specialist Richard Kaplan April Lucas, Administrative Supervisor Pam Marsh Debbie Miller Melanie Mindlin Absent Members: Council Liaison: None Dennis Slattery ANNOUCEMENTS Commissioner Heesacker announced he will not be present for the September 11 meeting. Commission Brown stated he will also be out of town. Commissioner Kaplan stated he will not be present for the November 13 meeting. Commissioner Dawkins informed the Commission of the Council’s 4-3 vote to reinstate the Planning Commission’s recommendation for drive-thru windows. Council Liaison Dennis Slattery stated the Council was split on this issue, with some questioning why the banks were not the ones bringing this change forward and whether the amendment was really necessary. The Commission held a brief discussion about Council-Commission interactions and their desire to be more in tune with the Council. Several suggestions were made to improve communication, including holding joint meetings, incorporating the Commission into the Council’s goal setting process, and sending a Commission representative to the Council meetings. PUBLIC FORUM No one came forward to speak. DISCUSSION ITEMS A.Draft Housing Needs Analysis. Senior Planner Brandon Goldman and Housing Program Specialist Linda Reid presented the Draft Housing Needs Analysis to the Commission. Ms. Reid explained the draft was taken before the Housing Commission at their last meeting and it is now coming before the Planning Commission for review before staff begins the formal adoption process. Ms. Reid pointed out Statewide Planning Goal #10 “To provide for the housing needs of the citizens of the state”, and stated in order to make this assessment the City completed the Buildable Lands Inventory (approved last year) and the second part has been using the Housing Needs Model to determine the housing needs of the City of Ashland. She explained the Housing Needs Model calculates the housing needs based on population changes, demographic changes, housing incomes, household sizes, vacancy rates, housing tenure, and housing costs. In addition to the Housing Needs Model, the Housing Needs Analysis utilized data from the U.S. Census Data, analysis of current market conditions, community and property owner/manager questionnaires, population data, coordinated population projections, employment data, housing and development data from Ashland and Jackson Co., the 2002 Ashland Housing Needs Analysis, and 2007 Rental Needs Analysis. Ms. Reid commented on the public participation process that was used to gather data and provided a summary of findings contained in the Needs Analysis. Highlights of the findings include: Ashland Planning Commission August 28, 2012 Page 1 of 3 Ashland is growing, but relatively slowly Growth has not occurred evenly in all age groups Fewer households own housing in Ashland compared to other areas The fastest growing employment sectors in Ashland do not pay enough for a household to afford fair market rents The number of low-income households has decreased since 2000 after having increased between 1998 and 2000 Housing sales prices increased nearly 50% between 1998 and 2001 and have remained higher than the regional average The median home sales price in Ashland is not affordable to households with median incomes The largest dwelling unit gap exists for households earning less than 10,000 annually Ashland has a large deficit of affordable owner-occupied housing units Few multi-family units were built between 2001 and 2010 Ashland is falling short of providing the housing types identified in the 2002 Housing Needs Analysis Ashland has a relatively small inventory of land zoned for multi-family housing Ms. Reid stated the recommendations in the Housing Needs Analysis are to encourage more multi-family housing, and to encourage more affordable single-family housing types. She outlined the next steps in this process and stated: 1) staff will finalize the draft, 2) the final document will be taken before the Housing and Planning Commissions for review and recommendation, and 3) the Needs Analysis will be taken before the City Council for formal adoption. Ms. Reid asked if the Commission has any questions or comments before the formal adoption process begins. The Commission shared their general comments about the housing inventory in Ashland. The following is a summary of some of the questions and comments that were raised: Have rents stayed flat or increased in the last few years? Ms. Reid clarified the rental costs have remained fairly flat. Comment was made that housing costs have continued to decrease and renters may be frustrated that their rates are not going down as well. Can the City require people to build rental housing instead of housing that is for sale? Mr. Molnar stated there are some legal issues that would need to be addressed with this scenario, however the City was able to do this with the Croman Mill zoning district and required housing to be a mix of rentals and for purchase units. It seems that most of the parcels identified for multifamily housing are too small to accommodate this type of housing, is that correct? Mr. Goldman clarified multifamily residential is more than one unit on a property. He stated while there are not a lot of large lots that could accommodate five or ten units, there are a lot of opportunities for second units. Comment was made supporting the finding that it is not possible to build affordable housing without subsidies, and questioning what the City can do to encourage the public sector to participate. Additional comment was made to reduce or remove the 60-year restriction on affordable units to motivate more people to build affordable housing. Suggestion was made to lessen the current zoning restrictions so that it is possible to do more things in the zone, such as pocket neighborhoods. Suggestion was made to outright permit accessory residential units and to raise the threshold for requiring an additional parking space. Comment was made that there are other things aside from affordable housing that keeps families in the community, such as a strong school system, child care and after school programs, and maintaining and attracting businesses that expand the City’s economic base. Comment was made voicing support for manufactured housing and potential changes to policies to encourage this type of housing. Mr. Molnar thanked the Commission for their feedback and reminded them to not lose sight of the accomplishments this community has made in terms of affordable housing. He stated the City set a goal of 10% of new housing stock to be affordable units and we have exceeded that; and have also provided subsidies to defer and waive fees for affordable units. B.Business Retention & Expansion Survey Update. Community Development Director Bill Molnar addressed the Commission and provided a brief presentation on the Business Retention and Expansion Survey. He explained the City contracted the Ashland Chamber of Commerce to conduct this survey and explained the survey gathered information in several areas, including: size and age of businesses interviewed, businesses past changes and future Ashland Planning Commission August 28, 2012 Page 2 of 3 expectations, skill and training needs by occupation, areas of occupational training difficult to access in Ashland or the Rogue Valley, future business expansion needs, and interest in conservation activities. Mr. Molnar also shared the top ten items that were learned from the survey: 1)The advantages of doing business in Ashland are: quality of life, natural and cultural assets, and small-town feel. The disadvantages are: a small labor pool, lack of specialized/technical skills, and limited market for products and services. 2)Most businesses maintained or increased sales during the recent recession. 3)Local businesses take pride in their employees, loyal customers, and “weathering the storm” during the recent recession. 4)Difficulties centered on hiring qualified and skilled workers, and the need for more technical, sales, and marketing training. 5)Over the past three years businesses increased purchases from regional sources and increased their sales to external markets. 6)Businesses were optimistic, expecting gains in employment, sales, customers, and profits over the next three years. 7)Nearly half of the businesses expect to expand physically over the next three years, but had concerns about expanding in their present location due to zoning restrictions or lack of space. 8)Businesses urged a streamlining of the local land use process and felt the effort would support future business development. 9)Interest in sustainable business programs and practices was prevalent across businesses. 10)Businesses were interested in deepening their connections with regional companies and institutions, particularly with SOU, RCC, and SOREDI. Mr. Molnar explained the next steps will include other entities in town conducting activities, and stated staff was concerned about some of the comments about the perceived inability to expand and would like to meet with some of the businesses that had these concerns. He added the Unified Code Project the Commission is currently working on will streamline the decision making process, although it will not streamline approvals. ADJOURNMENT Meeting adjourned at 9:00 p.m. Ashland Planning Commission August 28, 2012 Page 3 of 3 ASHLAND PLANNING COMMISSION REGULAR MEETING MINUTES September 11, 2012 CALL TO ORDER Chair Melanie Mindlin called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m. in the Civic Center Council Chambers, 1175 East Main Street. Commissioners Present: Staff Present: Michael Dawkins Maria Harris, Planning Manager Richard Kaplan Derek Severson, Associate Planner Pam Marsh April Lucas, Administrative Supervisor Debbie Miller Melanie Mindlin Absent Members: Council Liaison: Troy J. Brown, Jr. Dennis Slattery, absent Eric Heesacker ANNOUCEMENTS Commissioner Marsh announced the Dignity Village presentation will be held Wednesday, September 19, 2012 at 6:30 p.m. at Wesley Hall, 175 N. Main Street. CONSENT AGENDA A. Approval of Minutes 1. August 14, 2012 Regular Meeting Commissioners Kaplan / Dawkins m/s to approve the Consent Agenda. Voice Vote: All AYES. Motion passed 5-0. PUBLIC FORUM No one came forward to speak. UNFINISHED BUSINESS A.Approval of Findings for PA-2012-00981, 541 Strawberry Lane/48 Westwood Street. Ex Parte Contact No ex parte contact was reported. Commissioners Marsh / Kaplan m/s to approve the Findings for Planning Action 2012-00981. Roll Call Vote: Commissioners Miller, Dawkins, Marsh, Kaplan, and Mindlin, YES. Motion passed 5-0. TYPE II PUBLIC HEARING A. PLANNING ACTION: PA-2012-01122 SUBJECT PROPERTIES: 175 Lithia Way APPLICANTS: First Place Partners DESCRIPTION: A request for preliminary plat approval of a six-lot subdivision for the four vacant properties located at 165-175 Lithia Way, at the corner of Lithia Way and First Street. Also included is a request for Site Review approval to construct a three-story 18,577 square foot mixed-use building with a basement consisting of commercial and residential space on the first floor and residential space on the second and third floors. An Exception to the Site Design and Use Standards’ Downtown Design Standards (VI-B-3) is also proposed to allow Ashland Planning Commission September 11, 2012 Page 1 of 4 for recessed balconies on the front of the building. COMPREHENSIVE PLAN DESIGNATION: Commercial; ZONING: C-1; ASSESSOR’S MAP: 39 1E 09BA; TAX LOTS: 10100, 11601, 11701 and 15000. Commissioner Mindlin read aloud the public hearing procedures for land use hearings. Ex Parte Contact All members indicated they are familiar with the site; no ex parte contact was reported. Staff Report Associate Planner Derek Severson explained the request before the Commission is for preliminary plat approval of a six-lot subdivision including five building lots and a sixth open space/common area lot; site review approval to construct a three-story 18,577 sq.ft. mixed-used building with basement parking, commercial and residential on first floor, residential on the second and third floors; and an exception to the Downtown Design Standards to allow balconies on the Lithia Way façade. Mr. Severson called attention to the eight-lot subdivision approved for this site in 2007-2008, and a subsequent approval to combine two of the lots and construct a mixed use building. Following this approval a fair amount of site work occurred, including the demolition of the existing buildings and the installation of the majority of the infrastructure, however the approval expired before construction of the mixed-use building could be initiated. Mr. Severson stated the current request is largely similar to the previous application. The differences include: 1) reducing the number of lots facing Lithia Way from five down to three, 2) removing the plaza area from the front of the building, and 3) increasing the residential component to 10 units. Mr. Severson clarified an exception to the Downtown Standards for the small, recessed balconies was requested and approved under the previous application. Mr. Severson briefly outlined the proposed site plan and highlighted several elements of the application, including the plaza space area, the walkway connection from First Street, the affordable unit proposed for the first floor, and the additional two feet of sidewalk to be installed along the front of the site. Mr. Severson went on to say staff is recommending approval with the conditions as proposed. Questions of Staff Mr. Severson commented on the code section that speaks to balconies. He stated the desire for downtown properties is to have a strong storefront presence with buildings placed at the back of the sidewalk, and having second or third stories that are significantly recessed back can degrade the sense of enclosure that is desired. He explained the exception criteria allows for small balconies since the bulk of the façade remains at the zero setback, and noted the Historic Commission reviewed this application and felt the small balconies worked well on this building. Comment was made questioning what would happen if Lot 2 is not development, and whether the City could come back and require the applicant to make the side of the building facing Lot 2 more attractive. Mr. Severson stated to his knowledge the City has never gone back and asked an applicant to change their building after it has been approved and built, and stated the applicant intends on placing a building on Lot 2 sometime in the near future. Concern was raised about the nightly closure of the walkway through the building. Mr. Severson stated the applicant’s have indicated the nightly closure is for security reasons, and the applicants can speak to this when they come forward. Mr. Severson restated the elements of this application and also commented briefly on the plaza/open space area proposed for the site. Applicant’s Presentation Mark Knox, John Galbraith, Jerome White and Randy Jones/Mr. Knox addressed the Commission and stated this project is a re-do. He stated in many ways it is the same, but there are a few areas where it has been improved upon. He called attention to the changes in the City Code since their last approval which required them to alter the design, including moving the building up 8 ft., expanding the sidewalk width by 2 ft., and shifting the plaza area from the front of the building to the side. Mr. Knox went on to comment on the recessed balconies and the exception language in the Code, and stated they believe they meet the intent of Sections 18.80 and 18.72. Regarding the walkway, Mr. Knox clarified this is enclosed in the proposed building and Ashland Planning Commission September 11, 2012 Page 2 of 4 there is an alternate walkway open 24/7 through the open space area just 80 feet over. It was noted that the enclosed walkway is also an emergency access from the building, and residents will be able to exit at the night when the walkway is secured. Mr. Knox noted they more than meet the plaza requirements, and stated they are proving an affordable unit even though it is not required at this time. Mr. Jones clarified the residential units will be condos, not apartments; and Mr. White pointed out the locations of the Historic Commission’s recommendations on the site plan, and stated they support the changes. Questions of the Applicant Mr. Knox clarified the first floor windows are larger and will be transparent so that people can see inside. Mr. White added they may install slightly tinted windows on the east side. Mr. Knox clarified this helps to reduce heat gain but you would still be able to see inside. Comment was made questioning if this applicant intends to build out all the lots. Mr. Jones answered he can’t say whether they will build and own all five lots, however they certainly want to get this started. He added their intent, provided the level of success with this first building, is to continue onto the next building and then the next. Comment was made questioning the affordable housing unit. Mr. Knox clarified the Code states when you build more than 10 units, an affordable unit has to be provided, and they are right at 10. Mr. Jones added they want to build the affordable units as they go and not delay it. Public Testimony Katherine Spierings/2240 Camp Baker Rd, Medford/Stated she is the owner of 164 B Street and commented on the problems associated with the interface between this commercial site and an older neighborhood. She stated the livability of the neighborhood is impacted by the Growers Market, the view of wheels entering and exiting the parking lot, and littering. She stated the deterioration of the wooden fence is an additional problem and requested the fence be turned into a block wall. She stated she is in favor of this project, but would like the Planning Commission to address the neighbors’ concerns for privacy. Ms. Spierings was asked to clarify her request to the Commission. Ms Spierings answered she would like a continuation of the block wall that exists on First Street, or something similar to stop people from pushing garbage into their yard and provide better screening. Stan Potocki/A letter submitted by Mr. Potocki was read aloud by Commissioner Dawkins. (See attached Exhibit #2012-01) Applicant’s Rebuttal Mark Knox/Stated recessed balconies are permitted under the exception criteria and noted this only applies to the front of the building. He stated the residential housing will be a benefit to the area as the residents will provide extra eyes on the street. Mr. Knox noted they are not applying for a conditional use permit and everything they have proposed meets the standards. Regarding the concerns raised by the neighbors, Mr. Knox stated the City should work to create a transitional zone and perhaps allow for higher fence heights, but stated the applicant is not able to correct this issue. Commissioner Mindlin closed the hearing and the record at 8:10 p.m. Questions of Staff Commissioner Kaplan asked staff for clarification regarding Mr. Potacki’s letter, which states the City would not change his zoning, and asked how this relates to the approval criteria for this project. Staff clarified Mr. Potacki’s issues do not relate to the criteria. Commissioner Marsh asked staff to comment on the fence on the northern part of the property. Staff indicated it is unclear whether the fence is on the subject property or the adjacent residential property, and depending where it sits there are different height allowances. Commissioner Mindlin reopened the public hearing so the applicants could speak to the fence question. Ashland Planning Commission September 11, 2012 Page 3 of 4 Mr. Jones stated they are willing to maintain the fence if it is on their property and stated they want to be good neighbors and work with the property owners to find a solution that is acceptable to everyone. He called attention to the dense hedge that is listed on the plans that will get 30 feet deep and provide additional screening. Mr. Jones added the City currently leases this property and are suppose to police it, and once their project is built and they have residents and commercial tenants, their on- site management will be able to address these issues. Commissioner Mindlin re-closed the hearing and the record. Deliberations and Decision Commissioners Marsh / Kaplan m/s to approve Planning Action #2012-01122 with the affordable housing condition put forward by staff and to direct staff to wordsmith a condition regarding landscape maintenance and screening of the fence at the north property line. DISCUSSION: Commissioner Marsh stated they reviewed and approved this project once before and believes it has gotten better. She added she would like to put forward an amendment after the rest of the group shares their comments. Commissioner Kaplan voiced his support for the project and believes the issues regarding the site boundary and the homes will improve by having this complex built and properly managed. Commissioner Dawkins stated he will vote in favor of this motion but would have preferred smaller units for people to live and work downtown. Commissioners Marsh / Dawkins Miller m/s to amend the motion to require the walkway to remain open at all hours. DISCUSSION: Staff clarified this walkway is inside the building. Commissioner Dawkins stated he did not know this and withdrew his second. Commissioner Miller agreed to second the motion. Commissioner Marsh stated the walkway is within the building, but not within the functional part of the building; and brought attention to the Masonic Walkway which remains open all the time. Planning Manager Maria Harris read aloud the pedestrian access and circulation standards that apply to this project. Commissioner Kaplan stated he does not support putting this requirement on the applicant. He stated security of the building is important, however encouraged the applicants to minimize the number of hours it is closed. Commissioner Dawkins agreed and stated it is within the owner’s rights to figure this out. Commissioner Marsh withdrew her motion. Commissioner Marsh / Miller m/s to amend the original motion to include a condition that asks the owners to look at leaving the gateway open for the most possible number of hours. Roll Call Vote: Commissioners Marsh, Miller, Mindlin, and Kaplan, YES. Commissioner Dawkins, NO. Motion passed 4-1. Roll Call Vote on original motion as amended: Commissioners Miller, Dawkins, Marsh, Kaplan and Mindlin, YES. Motion passed 5-0. ADJOURNMENT Meeting adjourned at 8:45 p.m. Ashland Planning Commission September 11, 2012 Page 4 of 4 Findings TYPE II PUBLIC HEARING _________________________________ PA-2012-01122 Ashland School District Properties ASHLAND PLANNING DIVISION STAFF REPORT PLANNING ACTION: #2012-00899 APPLICANT: Ashland School District LOCATION: Ashland School District Properties Ashland School Administrative Services – 885 Siskiyou Blvd. Ashland High School – 201 S. Mountain Ave. Ashland Middle School & John Muir School – 100 Walker Ave. Bellview Elementary – 1070 Tolman Creek Rd. Helman Elementary School – 705 Helman St. Walker Elementary School – 364 Walker Ave. Briscoe School – 265 N. Main St. Lincoln School – 320 Beach St. ZONE DESIGNATION: R-2 and R-1-5 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN DESIGNATION: Residential (Multi-Family and Single Family) APPLICATION DEEMED COMPLETE: September 24, 2012 120-DAY TIME LIMIT: January 18, 2013 ORDINANCE REFERENCE: 18.96 Sign Regulations 18.104 Conditional Use Permits REQUEST: Request for a Conditional Use Permit approval for the creation of a Master Sign Permit Program for the Ashland School District Properties. The program intends to set parameters for material, location, area and height for new school signs as they are needed. I. Relevant Facts A. Background - History of Application Ashland School District has received approvals for many of the signs on school campuses over the years either combined with a Site Review approval or as a separate Conditional Use Permit (CUP). PA-1978-103 – Site Review approval for Administration Building at 885 Siskiyou PA-1987 – Correspondence regarding large Ashland Grizzly Mural PA-1997-101 – Walker Elementary School CUP for ground sign PA-1997-021 – Ashland Middle School (AMS) CUP for sign program Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 1 of 9 PA-2000-033 – Bellview Elementary School CUP for ground sign PA-2000-083 – Replacement scoreboard sign at Ashland High school PA-2006-00250 – Modification of AMS sign program CUP PA-2009-00322 – Helman Elementary School CUP for dragon mural B. Detailed Description of the Site and Proposal Ashland School District is responsible for the operation of eight public schools (one is outside of City limits and is not part of this land use application but is part of the school districts sign program) and two support service properties. The application is for the creation of a Master Sign Permit Program for Ashland School District’s properties. The School District is requesting site identification signs, on-site direction and additional signs to meet the needs of the various functions that occur on school properties i.e. ground, wall signs, increased size of reader boards, score boards, fundraising signs, and other banners, murals and wall graphics, etc. Each one of the school district properties is in residential zones. Helman and Bellview are in the R-1 Single-Family Residential zone, and Briscoe, Walker, AMS, Ashland High School (AHS) and Lincoln are in the R-2 Low Density Multiple-Family Residential zone. According to Ashland Land Use Ordinance, Government Agencies are allowed to apply for a Conditional Use Permit for the placement of a sign that does not conform to the code when it can be determined that the signs are necessary to further the agency’s public purpose. In the past, individual schools have separately applied for a Conditional Use Permit when they wish to install or modify a sign which exceeds the limits outlined in the Sign Regulations for residentially zoned properties. In order for Ashland School District to have cohesion with the sign permit and Conditional Use Permit applications, the City encouraged the creation of a sign program that sets parameters on size, materials and location for the future installation of signs on the School District properties. The Master Sign Permit program would eliminate the need for a site by site Conditional Use Permit application each time a sign is installed or modified and allow the signs to be changed as needed with a basic sign permit so long as the parameters described herein are met. Some of the schools have existing signs and the application lists the signs in place by school. In addition, the application includes a description of the signs requested as part of the application for a Maser Sign Permit. 1. Elementary School Campuses Ground Signs The applicant is proposing three new ground signs with changeable copy. A 36 square foot ground sign with changeable copy at Helman, and a 20 square foot ground sign for Briscoe and Lincoln Elementary Schools. The area of changeable copy was not proposed. Secondary Signs and Building Identification Signs No new directional signs proposed for the elementary schools. Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 2 of 9 Banners, Scoreboards The elementary schools have the least amount of banners (each has a Box Top for Education Banners long term, and other temporary banners for recruitments similar to boy scouts, girl scouts, etc.). None of the elementary schools have a score board visible from the public right-of-way. 2. Ashland Middle School (AMS) Campus Ground Signs Ashland Middle School has a Sign Permit Program and which allowed for a 27 square foot ground sign without changeable copy. The applicant is proposing a new ground sign not to exceed 25 square feet and not to exceed 35 percent changeable copy. Secondary Signs and Building Identification Signs No new directional signs proposed for the middle school. Banners, Scoreboards There is one small scoreboard sign near the gymnasium building at AMS is it not visible from the public right-of-way. 3. High School (AHS) Campus Ground Signs The applicant has proposed a new ground sign on the Siskiyou Boulevard frontage to replace the sign that is there. The new sign is proposed to be 40 square feet in area, five feet tall, and have 35 percent changeable copy area. Secondary Signs and Building Identification Signs There are numerous secondary signs at AHS including grizzly paws and red background, stenciled building identification signs which are approximately two to three square feet in size, and directional and information signs which range from approximately two square feet to eight square feet. No changes are proposed to these signs. Two new, 20 square foot signs have been proposed for two areas at AHS. One is proposed near the intersection of Mountain and East Main to delineate the location of the Lincoln Avenue baseball fields. Another is proposed near the parking lot near the intersection of Iowa and Mountain. Scoreboards At the AHS there are four primary field areas including the Walter A. Phillips Football Stadium, the track, the practice football field adjacent to the football stadium on Morse, and the baseball/softball fields at Lincoln and East Main Street. At these fields there are scoreboard signs which either pre-date the code or have been approved through a separate Conditional Use Permit sign approval. No new scoreboards have been proposed. Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 3 of 9 Mountain Avenue Theater Building Sign The applicant has proposed a 60 square foot sign that has approximately 70 percent changeable copy for the Mountain Avenue Theater building. The sign would be wall mounted above the theater building doors facing Mountain Ave. The sign is proposed to be externally illuminated. High School Gymnasium Wall Sign A wall sign with a maximum of 60 square feet area of raised letters is proposed between the pilaster columns on the gymnasium wall facing Mountain Avenue. 4. Temporary Banners, A frames, Moveable Signs, All Campus At times temporary banners are placed on school properties for specific events or club sign ups. It also appears that there are more permanent banners which are placed on school properties and remain in place indefinitely (e.g. Box Tops for Education). The temporary banners advertising specific events, extramural athletics, club signups and registrations, etc. appear to be similar in type to the temporary non- illuminated signs allowed for non-profit and charitable organizations, with a maximum area of sixteen (16) square feet in area, placed no more than seven (7) days before an event and removed within two (2) days following the event. The temporary banners which have received a more permanent treatment and are primarily for communication to the general public are to be removed or moved to a location that is not visible to the public right-of-way. 5. Administrative Services Building, Maintenance Yard The one change proposed for the Administrative Services Building along Siskiyou Blvd. is to remove repetitive signage and to slightly increase the area of the sign identifying the Public Schools building. A specific sign area has not been proposed and the area will be limited to 15 square feet. No changes have been proposed for the maintenance yard. 6. Murals, All Campus The existing murals visible from the street (i.e. public right of way) and installation of new murals is not approved as part of this application. Since most of the school campuses are composed of a number of structures with internal courtyards, the regulation would not preclude the use of murals on the sides of building facing the interior of the site that are not visible from the public right-of- ways. According to Ashland Municipal Code wall graphics are prohibited and murals and other wall graphics are subject to the requirements of Ashland Municipal Code 2.29 for displays of Public Art. Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 4 of 9 7. Siskiyou Boulevard Median Displays The placement of signs, flags, banners and balloons in the Siskiyou Boulevard median in front of the high school to advertise sporting and other events is not approved as part of this application as the planning approval does not extend beyond the private properties of the School District. Any installation of signs, flags, banners and balloons within the public right-of-way requires a permit from the Public Works Department. II. Project Impact The request for a Conditional Use Permit for the installation of signage by a Government Agency is typically a “Type I” Administrative approval process. Due to the scope of the application and that Staff did not feel some aspects of the application could be administratively approved, a public hearing has been scheduled. Applicable Sign Regulations According to the Ashland Land Use Ordinance, Sign Regulations for Residential Signs in 18.96.070, one ground sign, or wall sign a maximum of 15 square feet in area, not to exceed an overall height of five (5) feet above grade, setback ten (10) feet from property lines is permitted in residential zones. Plastic exterior materials and internal illumination is prohibited. The Sign Regulations for Commercial and Employment (C-1/E-1) zoned properties in general allow one ground sign per property no more than sixty (60) square feet in area, and a maximum height of five (5) feet. Additionally, two-wall signs are permitted with a total maximum area of sixty (60) square feet. The area of ground and wall signs allowed is based on the business building frontage.Sign area of up to twenty (20) percent is allowed as changeable copy. The code generally permits one ground and two wall signs with a total maximum area of 120 square feet of sign area for C-1/ E-1 zoned properties. Temporary banners are permitted in C-1/E-1 zones under a few circumstances, fundraisers and grand openings. Temporary banners are allowed a maximum area of sixteen (16) square feet in area, and can be placed no more than seven (7) days before an event and removed within two (2) days following the event. Temporary banners and other temporary displays are not permitted in residential zones. The following sign policy is from the Ashland Comprehensive Plan. “The City shall design the Land Use Ordinance to provide for specific development guidelines which will ensure that strong sign regulations exist which ensure the number, size and placement of signs are the minimum required for recognition by the public of the business at the site.” III. Proposal and Concerns The purpose of this application before the Planning Commission for a public hearing is to determine a formula that achieves the needs of the school district while at the same time being sensitive to the residential neighbors of the schools, and the business community with respect to the number of signs, materials of signs and sign size generally allowed. The challenge in considering a Conditional Use Permit for governmental signs is Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 5 of 9 determining a reasonable amount, size and type of signage “to further that agency’s public purpose” within the context of the signage permitted throughout the community. As proposed, the application is generally within the parameters of a previous similar Master Sign Permit Program which was previously approved for the Southern Oregon University campus. Staff’s primary concerns are the proposed wall sign at the High School gymnasium (page 7 of application) and the Mountain Avenue theater sign (page 10 of application). Gymnasium Wall Sign The School District maintains that in order to establish Mountain Avenue as the primary high school frontage a sign needs to be added to the wall of the gymnasium facing Mountain Avenue near Iowa Street. There is an approximately 20 square foot wall sign engraved in the low wall adjacent to the class room building along the same street frontage. The application states that the School District would like to add up to 60 square feet of sign area on the gymnasium. Staff concurs that some signage would be appropriate along the wall of the gymnasium, but believes the maximum area between the proposed sign and the existing ground sign should be a maximum of 60 square feet, combined. Theater Sign Staff is concerned about the proposed wall sign for the Mountain Avenue Theater for the following reasons. The design of the sign appears to have a commercial treatment and emphasizes its presence as an advertisement about the theater, which is uniquely uncharacteristic of the majority signs installed by similar institutions located within Ashland’s residential neighborhoods. Additionally, it is uncommon to have a sign installed upon a relatively blank façade and visible only to the residential zone. The request for 70% of the sign area to be of changeable copy is 4.5 times greater than the maximum allowed by ordinance and twice that permitted under the Southern Oregon University’s sign program. Again, staff believes the amount of changeable copy is more closely associated with what is expected in a commercial zone, rather than the underlying residential district. Staff believes that it would be more appropriate to install a similar ground sign as proposed for the Siskiyou Boulevard frontage, in front of the theater along the Mountain Avenue frontage. This would achieve two purposes - demonstrate to the public that Mountain Avenue is the primary high school frontage and provide the ability for the theater to advertise upcoming events as well as providing display area for other campus information. Staff suggests using the following parameters, which are summarized in the table below, for evaluating the school district sign program. In terms of ground signs, staff believes that 30 square feet is the largest area that should be permitted for the smaller school campuses (Elementary and AMS) and 40 square feet for Ashland High School. The size is based on the typical size of past approved government signs such as the ground sign at Walker Elementary school. The elementary and middle school campuses have numerous Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 6 of 9 vehicular entrance / exists, and the ground signs are typically near the primary, public vehicle access to the site. Because the schools have specific messages about important dates and other information for the parents/guardians of the students and occasionally, messages applicable to the general public, changeable copy area is also requested. Because the message is directed at a specific audience, who is aware of where the message is to be displayed, staff believes a smaller area, more in line with the 20 percent changeable copy that is permitted by code is more appropriate. A recent similar application for Southern Oregon University allowed for 34 percent changeable copy on two new campus signs. Staff suggests the area allowed for changeable copy be up to 35 percent of the total sign area. The suggested size for secondary signs (ball-field identification, parent pick-up / drop off zones, parking lots, etc) is 15 square feet. Fifteen square feet is the maximum area allowed under the Ashland Land Use Ordinance for residentially zoned property. Additionally, staff suggests any further building identification signs should be maximum area of three square feet. For comparison, incidental signs are allowed to be between two and three square feet in size in commercial and employment areas. In both instances no changeable copy would be permitted. Secondary Signs / Ground Signs # Changeable Copy Y / N Temporary Signs School Building and area % Allowed / Banners Identification 15 square foot max Max 16 sq. feet. 1 per school: max Ground: Y area / No more than 7 days before Elementary area of 30 square 35% 3 square foot max Removed 2 days after feetOthers: N area event. 15 square foot max Max 16 sq. feet. 1 per school: max Ground: Y area / No more than 7 days before AMS area of 30 square 35% 3 square foot max Removed 2 days after feetOthers: N area event. 15 square foot max Max 16 sq. feet. 1 per school Ground: Y area / No more than 7 days before AHS frontage: max area 35% 3 square foot max Removed 2 days after of 40 square feet Others: N area event. In terms of the approval criteria for a Conditional Use Permit, staff believes a finding could be made that Ashland School District is a unique public entity within the City with a need to identify and advertise the various functions the schools hold. The proposed sign program enhances the schools ability to provide public notice of those events, and warrants signage beyond the scope of what’s permitted under the sign regulations. Schools themselves do not typically have similarity in bulk, scale, and coverage to the structures in the surrounding residential neighborhoods. In general, the application proposes signage that is similar in scale to the campus area of the specific school they Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 7 of 9 serve and the neighborhood population they serve. An appropriately executed sign program can improve the traffic generation on surrounding streets as it directs traffic to the specific area of campus or specific structure relieving some potentially lost drivers or wandering pedestrians. None of the proposed signs are to have internal illumination and any external illumination would be directed at the sign. This will not negatively affect the livability of the impact area by generating light, noise or glare. III. Procedural - Required Burden of Proof The criteria for a Conditional Use Permit are described in 18.104.050 as follows: A. That the use would be in conformance with all standards within the zoning district in which the use is proposed to be located, and in conformance with relevant Comprehensive plan policies that are not implemented by any City, State, or Federal law or program. B. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access to and through the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and adequate transportation can and will be provided to and through the subject property. C. That the conditional use will have no greater adverse material effect on the livability of the impact area when compared to the development of the subject lot with the target use of the zone. When evaluating the effect of the proposed use on the impact area, the following factors of livability of the impact area shall be considered in relation to the target use of the zone: 1. Similarity in scale, bulk, and coverage. 2. Generation of traffic and effects on surrounding streets. Increases in pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit use are considered beneficial regardless of capacity of facilities. 3. Architectural compatibility with the impact area. 4. Air quality, including the generation of dust, odors, or other environmental pollutants. 5. Generation of noise, light, and glare. 6. The development of adjacent properties as envisioned in the Comprehensive Plan. 7. Other factors found to be relevant by the Hearing Authority for review of the proposed use. IV. Conclusions and Recommendations It is crucial that a sign program of this size, scale and scope is thoroughly evaluated in the context of Ashland‘s approval criteria for Conditional Use Permit, and considering the sign regulations that apply throughout the community. According to Section 18.96.150 Governmental Signs, “Governmental agencies may apply for a Conditional Use to place a sign that does not conform to this Code when it is determined that, in addition to the criteria for a conditional use, the sign is necessary to further that agency's public purpose.” In making the decision, the Planning Commission needs to consider the minimum signage necessary in terms of number, area, amount of changeable copy to further the public purpose of the school district. Staff believes the proposal could be found to meet the relevant standards in mostareas. However,staff has identified a list of issues related to the approval criteriaapplicable to the project with the primary concerns being the proposed High School gymnasium wall sign and the theater wall sign. Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 8 of 9 Should the Commission believe adequate information and facts are provided to approve the project, Staff recommends the following conditions: 1)That all proposals of the applicant shall be conditions of approval unless otherwise modified here. 2)That the wall sign(s) at Ashland High school shall not exceed sixty (60) square feet total. The total maximum allowed square footage is sixty (60) square feet between signs labeled W3 (new) and W4 (existing) on page 7 of the applicants findings dated September 4, 2012. 3)That the new wall sign at Ashland High School on the gymnasium (W3 on pg. 7 of the applicant’s findings dated September 4, 2012 shall not cover any architectural features (decorative concrete band between the columns). 4)That the Ashland High School theater wall sign is not approved, 5)That the secondary ground signs proposed for the Lincoln Street ball fields and the Iowa Street parking lot shall be limited in size to a maximum of 15-square feet. No changeable copy is permitted. 6)That the new wall sign on the Ashland Public Schools Administrative Building shall be limited to a maximum of 15 square feet. 7)No signs shall be composed of plastic except the cover of the changeable copy area and the changeable copy itself. 8)No signs shall contain internal illumination. 9)That the Sign shown in box six labeled D at the High School Parking lot on Iowa and Mountain shall be removed and the sign moved to a pole internal of the parking lot area. 10)That the Master Sign Program document included in the application shall be updated to reflect the conditions of approval, and submitted to the Ashland Planning Division for review and approval. 11)That any future changes to the signage (e.g. size, number, type, material, changeable copy, illumination) not included in the approved Master Sign Program per planning approval PA 2012-00899 shall require a modification of the Conditional Use Permit prior to installation. Planning Action 2012-00899 Ashland Planning Division – Staff Report adg Applicant: Ashland School District #5 Page 9 of 9 Planning Department, 51 Winburn Way, Ashland, Oregon 97520 541-488-5305 Fax: 541-552-2050 www.ashland.or.us TTY: 1-800-735-2900 PLANNING ACTION:2012-00899 SUBJECT PROPERTY: Ashland School District Properties Ashland High School – 201 S. Mountain Ave. Ashland Middle School & John Muir School – 100 Walker Ave. Bellview Elementary – 1070 Tolman Creek Rd. Helman Elementary School – 705 Helman St. Walker Elementary School – 364 Walker Ave. Briscoe School – 265 N. Main St. Lincoln School – 320 Beach St. Ashland School Administrative Services – 885 Siskiyou Blvd. OWNER/APPLICANT: Ashland School District DESCRIPTION: A request for a Conditional Use Permit approval for the creation of a Master Sign Permit Program for the Ashland School District Properties. The program intends to set parameters for material, location, area and height for new school signs as they are needed. COMPREHENSIVE PLAN DESIGNATION: Residential (Multi-Family and Single Family); ZONING: R-2 and R-1-5; ASSESSOR’S MAP & TAX LOT# : 391E09DA 100; 391E10 1200 & 3600; 391E14CA 4700; 391E04BD 2900; 391E05DD 2500; 391E09DD 1100 391E09DA 6500. ASHLAND PLANNING COMMISSION MEETING: at 7:00 PM, Ashland Civic Center October 9, 2012 Notice is hereby given that a PUBLIC HEARING on the following request with respect to the ASHLAND LAND USE ORDINANCE will be held before the ASHLAND PLANNING COMMISSION on meeting date shown above. The meeting will be at the ASHLAND CIVIC CENTER, 1175 East Main Street, Ashland, Oregon. The ordinance criteria applicable to this application are attached to this notice. Oregon law states that failure to raise an objection concerning this application, either in person or by letter, or failure to provide sufficient specificity to afford the decision maker an opportunity to respond to the issue, precludes your right of appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA) on that issue. Failure to specify which ordinance criterion the objection is based on also precludes your right of appeal to LUBA on that criterion. Failure of the applicant to raise constitutional or other issues relating to proposed conditions of approval with sufficient specificity to allow this Commission to respond to the issue precludes an action for damages in circuit court. A copy of the application, all documents and evidence relied upon by the applicant and applicable criteria are available for inspection at no cost and will be provided at reasonable cost, if requested. A copy of the Staff Report will be available for inspection seven days prior to the hearing and will be provided at reasonable cost, if requested. All materials are available at the Ashland Planning Department, Community Development and Engineering Services, 51 Winburn Way, Ashland, Oregon 97520. During the Public Hearing, the Chair shall allow testimony from the applicant and those in attendance concerning this request. The Chair shall have the right to limit the length of testimony and require that comments be restricted to the applicable criteria. Unless there is a continuance, if a participant so requests before the conclusion of the hearing, the record shall remain open for at least seven days after the hearing. In compliance with the American with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please contact the City Administrator’s office at 541-488-6002 (TTY phone number 1-800-735-2900). Notification 72 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City to make reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility to the meeting. (28 CFR 35.102.-35.104 ADA Title I). If you have questions or comments concerning this request, please feel free to contact the Ashland Planning Division, 541-488-5305. G:\\comm-dev\\planning\\Planning Actions\\Noticing Folder\\Mailed Notices & Signs\\2012\\2012-00899.doc CONDITIONAL USE PERMITS 18.104.050 Approval Criteria A conditional use permit shall be granted if the approval authority finds that the proposed use conforms, or can be made to conform through the imposition of conditions, with the following approval criteria. A. That the use would be in conformance with all standards within the zoning district in which the use is proposed to be located, and in conformance with relevant Comprehensive plan policies that are not implemented by any City, State, or Federal law or program. B. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access to and through the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and adequate transportation can and will be provided to and through the subject property. C. That the conditional use will have no greater adverse material effect on the livability of the impact area when compared to the development of the subject lot with the target use of the zone. When evaluating the effect of the proposed use on the impact area, the following factors of livability of the impact area shall be considered in relation to the target use of the zone: 1. Similarity in scale, bulk, and coverage. 2. Generation of traffic and effects on surrounding streets. Increases in pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit use are considered beneficial regardless of capacity of facilities. 3. Architectural compatibility with the impact area. 4. Air quality, including the generation of dust, odors, or other environmental pollutants. 5. Generation of noise, light, and glare. 6. The development of adjacent properties as envisioned in the Comprehensive Plan. 7. Other factors found to be relevant by the Hearing Authority for review of the proposed use. G:\\comm-dev\\planning\\Planning Actions\\Noticing Folder\\Mailed Notices & Signs\\2012\\2012-00899.doc TYPE III PUBLIC HEARING _________________________________ PL-2012-01266 Housing Needs Analysis ASHLAND PLANNING DEPARTMENT STAFF REPORT October 02, 2012 PLANNING ACTION: 2012-01266 APPLICANT: City of Ashland ORDINANCE REFERENCE: Ashland Comprehensive Plan: Chapter VI \[Housing Element\] Appendix A, entitled “Technical Reports and Supporting Documents” REQUEST: Recommendation to the City Council regarding adoption of an Ordinance amending the City of Ashland Comprehensive Plan to adopt the updated Housing Needs Analysis as a supporting technical document. I. Relevant Facts A. Background In 2002, ECONorthwest prepared a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) which detailed housing and demographic inconsistencies within the Current housing stock and projected future need based on the Oregon Housing and Community Services Housing Needs Model. In 2007 a Rental Needs Analysis was completed to assess the needed rental housing types based on demographic information about Ashland households including size, age, and incomes. This Rental Needs Analysis supplemented information in a HNA. All of these studies attempt to project future housing needs relative to the existing supply of land suitable for development. The 2012 HNA, aims to quantify projected housing needs through the year 2040, and compares those demographic needs with the currently available lands within the City’s Urban Growth Boundary. This comparison provides the factual basis to answer the questions of “how much residential single family and multi-family land is presently available?”, “how many residential dwelling units can be accommodated on Ashland’s remaining developable lands?” and, “is there enough appropriately zoned land to accommodate Ashland’s future population?” The HNA update was completed using the Housing Needs Model, which specifically links income characteristics to the need for various housing types by price, density, and location throughout the community. The Housing Needs Model used to derive future projections was initially created by the State of Oregon as a tool for communities throughout the state to ensure that projections of future housing needs were driven by the demographics of the study area as opposed to simply projecting past trends in housing production forward. The standard practice in Oregon had historically been to extrapolate forward the past 5 or more years in housing production as the basis for determining a region’s future housing requirements. While this market or demand driven approach was commonly used to define the housing “needs” for an area, the true housing “needs” of Planning Action PA 2012-01266 (HNA) Ashland Planning Department – HNA Staff Report 20121002 Applicant: City of Ashland Page 1 of 4 that area’s population may not have been addressed. Using the most recent US Census and American Community Survey data regarding age demographics, household sizes, household wages and incomes, and local housing prices (rental and ownership) are some of the inputs used in determining housing “needs” in this model. Local housing markets are frequently not a “perfect” market where the “demand” or supply is in equilibrium and balance with the “need”. In many regions, the new housing supply is a function of what the local builders are inclined or able to produce, which may not be what the households in the region actually need or desire and can afford without being cost burdened. The HNA uses the housing model as a starting point for projecting Ashland’s housing needs to 2040. The HNA incorporates data from the 2011 Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) and evaluates Ashland’s housing need by type and price in consideration of available land designated by Zone within the City’s UGB. This HNA has also utilized data from: The Housing Needs Model U.S. Census Data Analysis of current market conditions Community and property owner/manager questionnaire Population Data from Portland State University’s Population Research Center Coordinated Population Projections from Jackson County Employment data from the Oregon Employment Department Housing and Development data from the City of Ashland and Jackson County City of Ashland 2002 HNA & 2007 Rental Needs Analysis Staff analyzed data from the aforementioned sources, used projections from the Housing Needs Model, compared them to historic development trends and suggested modifications based on the development mix needed to meet the future housing needs. Additionally, staff related the needed housing type and affordability projections to the potential number of dwelling units that could be accommodated on available lands within the existing UGB by zoning and Comprehensive Plan designation. th The Planning Commission reviewed the initial draft HNA at a study session on July 25, thth 2012. The Housing Commission’s reviews took place on August 8 and September 26, 2012. During these meetings revisions to the initial draft were discussed which have now been incorporated into the final draft HNA. The revisions to the document’s “suggested recommendations” are as follows: among those incorporated into the final document were: Examine opportunities for reductions in parking requirements for the provision of apartments meeting certain conditions. Studies have shown that the number of vehicles per household is lower in areas that are more conducive to walking and have greater access to transit (City of San Diego Feb. 2011) A unit’s size and level of affordability are additional conditions that could be further evaluated in consideration of needed parking and reducing parking requirements. Evaluate land use incentives to provide for small lots intended for small unit development . The data show a strong correlation between lot size, unit size and Planning Action PA 2012-01266 (HNA) Ashland Planning Department – HNA Staff Report 20121002 Applicant: City of Ashland Page 2 of 4 housing cost. The City could consider reductions in minimum lot sizes in certain residential zones to specifically promote the development of smaller dwelling units. Consider restricting uses in certain zones to apartments. The building permit data suggest that a significant amount of land designated for high-density multi- family housing has been developed as single-family attached types that are owner occupied units. Designation certain lands for multi-family rental units would encourage development of apartments. Consider allowing Accessory Residential Units as a permitted use in single family zones. The integration of ARUs into existing neighborhoods provides for small dedicated rental units serving single or two person households, and could also be a resource for more affordable housing types. The City should evaluate existing density bonus allocations to better incentivize the voluntary inclusion of affordable single family housing in future developments The ordinance presented for consideration provides for adoption of the 2012 HNA as a technical document in support of the Housing Element \[Chapter VI\] of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan. In order to allow the HNA to be more regularly updated the ordinance presented for consideration includes a provision allowing future updates of the HNA to be approved by Resolution of the City Council. This provision will enable staff to more readily update the HNA and present the revised technical document to the City Council to account for changes in population projections, demographics, and residential development potential. II. Procedural The procedure for a legislative amendment is described in 18.108.170 as follows: A. It may be necessary from time to time to amend the text of the Land Use Ordinance or make other legislative amendments in order to conform with the comprehensive plan or to meet other changes in circumstances and conditions. A legislative amendment is a legislative act solely within the authority of the Council. B. A legislative amendment may be initiated by the Council, by the Commission, or by application of a property owner or resident of the City. The Commission shall conduct a public hearing on the proposed amendment at its earliest practicable meeting after it is submitted, and within thirty days after the hearing, recommend to the Council, approval, disapproval, or modification of the proposed amendment. C. An application for amendment by a property owner or resident shall be filed with the Planning Department thirty days prior to the Commission meeting at which the proposal is to be first considered. The application shall be accompanied by the required fee. D. Before taking final action on a proposed amendment, the Commission shall hold a public hearing. After receipt of the report on the amendment from the Commission, the Council shall hold a public hearing on the amendment. Notice of time and place of the public hearings and a brief description of the Planning Action PA 2012-01266 (HNA) Ashland Planning Department – HNA Staff Report 20121002 Applicant: City of Ashland Page 3 of 4 proposed amendment shall be given notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the City not less than ten days prior to the date of hearing. E. No application of a property owner or resident for a legislative amendment shall be considered by the Commission within the twelve month period immediately following a previous denial of such request, except the Commission may permit a new application if, in the opinion of the Commission, new evidence or a change of circumstances warrant it. III. Conclusions and Recommendations The HNA currently presented reflects recent household demographics, housing development and economic trends and provides an adequate factual basis to evaluate housing need and land availability within Ashland’s Urban Growth Boundary. Staff recommends the Planning Commission forward a recommendation of approval to the City Council for the Ordinance adopting the HNA as a supporting technical document to Chapter VI of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan. Potential Motion Move to recommend approval to the City Council of adoption of an Ordinance amending the City of Ashland Comprehensive Plan to adopt the Housing Needs Analysis (2012) as a supporting technical document to be included in the Comprehensive Plan Appendix entitled “Technical Reports and Supporting Documents”. Attached : 2012 Housing Needs Analysis Update Ordinance amending the Comprehensive Plan to include the HNA as a technical supporting document Appendix A of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan: Technical Reports and Supporting Documents Planning Application Housing Commission Minutes 7/25/2012 Housing Commission Minutes 9/26/2012 Planning Action PA 2012-01266 (HNA) Ashland Planning Department – HNA Staff Report 20121002 Applicant: City of Ashland Page 4 of 4 2 Findings 2 Recommendations 6 City Accomplishments 8 Section I: Introduction 9 9 10 11 13 Section II: Framework/Community Context 14 14 16 18 20 Section III: Housing Trends and Existing Conditions 23 23 25 26 29 31 33 Section IV: Housing Inventory 33 33 33 34 36 36 36 39 Section V: Housing Needs 39 39 41 42 43 43 Section VI: Baseline Forecast of Housing Demand 46 47 52 Section VII: Meeting Housing needs to 2040 56 62 Appendix - 1 - The 2012 Housing Needs Analysis provides a summary of housing and demographic trends within the City of Ashland in an effort to allow the City to meet the population’s housing needs in the future. This report is intended to provide an evaluation of housing trends in Ashland since the last detailed housing assessments were completed including the 2002 Housing Needs Analysis and the 2007 Rental Needs Analysis. The following is a review of those trends, a brief summary of steps the City has taken to address the findings, recommended actions identified in the prior housing assessments, and an evaluation of what the results of those actions have been. Ashland is growing-but relatively slowly : The City of Ashland has grown in population from 16,234 in 1990 to 20,078 in 2010 according to the US Census. This 0.79% historical growth rate is largely consistent with the City’s Comprehensive Plan and Jackson County’s population estimate for the City of Ashland that predicts the population will continue to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 0.75% between 2005 and 2060. Between 1990 and 2000 Ashland’s population grew by 20% while the population grew by only 2.8% in the decade between 2000 and 2010. This marked disparity in population growth between these past two decades may suggest that the actual annual growth rate is trending toward a diminishing growth rate and if that proves to be the case it will be a trend which bears close monitoring. Growth has not occurred evenly in all age groups : The population growth rate of individuals 65 years old and older grew at a faster rate in Ashland than in the rest of the State, while the population of individuals between the ages of 35 and 44 actually declined. In the last decades Ashland has also seen a substantial decrease in the population of nearly all age groups between 15 and 55 (one exception was the 25-34 age groups which saw a 3.4% increase between 2000 and 2010). The populations of age groups 55 years old and older see growth with the exception of that age group of 85 years old and older. - 2 - Figure 1. Ashland Persons per Age Cohort 2000-2010 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 over yearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyears 5 Under and 914192434445459647484 5 years 10152025354555606575 85 2000USCensus2010USCensus This trend of an aging citizenry should persist into the future as the largest population growth has been and will continue to be in the age groups represented by the large baby boom cohort. This group which was in their 40”s and 50’s in 2000, and their 50’s and 60’s in 2010, (where those groups saw increases of 110% and 85% respectively), will be in their 70’s and 80’s by 2020. Overall the forecast for the State of Oregon ( Source: OREGON’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS February 2010, State ) anticipates there will be 53% more elderly in 2020 than in 2010. Given Office of Economic Analysis Ashland’s desirability as retirement destination such trending indicates Ashland will likely see a continuation of this trend. Fewer households own housing in Ashland compared to other areas : The 2010 Census showed 51% of Ashland households own their homes and 49% are in renter occupied housing. Ashland has a lower percentage of homeowners and a higher percentage of renters than Jackson County with a 63.3% ownership rate, the State of Oregon with a 63.8% ownership rate or the Nation as a whole with at 66.6% homeownership rate. The 2000 Census data showed 52.3% of housing units in Ashland were owner occupied and 47.7% of units were renter occupied. This regional rental/owners disparity could be affected by the presence of the University which increases the student age population that is typically in the market for rental housing, but also shows a greater demand for rental units relative to the rest of the region. - 3 - The fastest growing employment sectors in Ashland do not pay enough for a household to afford fair market rents : Individuals employed in the fastest growing employment sectors in Ashland, services and retail jobs; do not make enough money to pay fair market rent in Ashland. However, this trend is not specific to Ashland; in general wages have been outpaced by housing costs since the 1980’s. The number of low-income households has decreased since 2000 after having increased between 1998 and 2000 : Between 2000 and 2010 the estimated number of families and individuals living below the poverty level has decreased from 12.5% to 11.5% and from 19.6% to 18.8% respectively. Although the decrease is slight, it may signal a reversal in a trend identified in the 2002 housing Needs Analysis which found an increase of 2.7% in the estimated number of low-income households between 1998 and 2001. The 2010 Census now reports a decrease in the number of households who report having an annual income of less than $75,000 a year while the number of households reporting an income of over $75,000 has increased. Housing sales prices increased nearly 50% between 1998 and 2001 and have remained higher than the regional average : Housing prices in the early part of the decade rose precipitously, and in 2001 this trend was just getting started. In 2007 at the height of the housing boom, the average home price in Ashland was $438,750. With the fall out of the housing market in 2008 and the ensuing foreclosure crisis, housing prices in most areas fell drastically. Housing prices also fell in Ashland during the recession, though not as significantly as in other parts of the county. According to the Roy Wright Appraisal Service, 85 housing units sold in Ashland in 2011 the average sales price was $285,000. The median home sales price in Ashland is not affordable to households with median incomes: the 2012 median household income for a family of four in the Medford/Ashland Metropolitan Statistical Area is $58,500. In order to afford a median priced home in Ashland a household would have to earn $75,000 a year. Only 23.8% of the population reports having an income over $75,000 a year, while 50% of the ownership housing stock is targeted to this group. It is clear that there is an excess of ownership housing on the market at price ranges which are not commensurate with the earning capability of the majority of the population in the region. The largest dwelling unit gap exists for households earning less than $10,000 annually: The findings of the Housing Needs Model for the City of Ashland using 2010 Census Data shows that the City lacks an adequate number of rental units affordable to those residents with the lowest incomes; those making less than $10,000 a year. Households making 30% of the Area Median Income or less make up approximately 12.2% of all Ashland households. Only 3.05% of the City’s rental housing stock (approximately 152 units) is considered affordable to this population. The City’s current need for rental housing in a price range affordable to those with the lowest income is estimated to be 955 units; this leaves a gap of approximately 803 units needed to house these very low income households. Housing Units affordable to these populations, which include predominantly households under the age of 35, and to a lesser extent over the age of 55, could be offset by Housing Choice (formerly section 8) Vouchers. The 729 - 4 - households under the age of 35 that report having an income of under $10,000 a year may be due in part to the presence of Southern Oregon University, which includes a high percentage of non- traditional students. Ashland has a large deficit of affordable owner-occupied housing units : The 2002 HNA found that 46% of Ashland households earning below the median income could not afford to purchase a house in Ashland. This number has grown to approximately 57% of Ashland households; over half of the current population cannot afford to purchase a home in Ashland. The Housing Needs Model shows that there is a deficit of housing stock costing less than $279,300, only 22% of all housing units for sale in Ashland, while there is a surplus of 2,255 units above that price. Few multi-family units were built between 2001 and 2010 : The 2002 HNA found that only 9% of the building permits issued between 1990 and 2001 were for multi-family housing types. Between 2000 and 2010, 19.6% of all building permits issued were issued for multiple family units (two-family units to five or more). Though single family units tend to get developed at a rate twice that of multi-family units, the City has seen a significant increase in the development of multi-family units in the past ten years. However, not all of the newly built multi-family units were rental units, and many rental units were lost in the same period to condominium conversion. Ashland is falling short of providing the housing types identified in the 2002 Housing needs analysis : The 2002 HNA found that more single-family units were being built than was estimated to be needed, while both multi-family housing and government assisted housing types were either falling short or not being built at all. It is clear that single-family ownership housing development remains the most prevalent type of housing development within Ashland, while the housing types most needed, including multi-family rentals and government assisted housing are not being developed in accordance with needs. Ashland has a relatively small inventory of land zoned for multi-family housing : The 2011 Buildable Lands Inventory identified an existing capacity for up to 1,384 Multi-family units within the Urban Growth Boundary. The Housing Needs Model anticipates up to 1,759 multi- family housing units will be needed to satisfy the anticipated demand for multi-family units by the year 2040. Without changes to allowable densities, increases in mixed use developments, or an increase in land zoned for multi-family the City may exhaust the supply of land available for multi-family housing by the year 2034. - 5 - Implications of previous housing trends: The number of affordable units in Ashland causes households to compete against each other for housing. Land zoned for multiple-family is being consumed for single family ownership units such as townhomes and condominiums. Housing costs are forcing Ashland workers to live in other communities Housing costs may be contributing to reductions in school enrollment. Housing costs may place greater demands on transportation systems and parking (i.e. with more people commuting). Housing costs may limit economic development Following is a summary of potential land use strategies for addressing key housing issues identified in the 2012 HNA. Encourage more multi-family housing : Promote policies that will increase the development of multi-family housing and provide more affordable rental housing and to meet the needs of the population. The 2002 HNA also recommended an increase in multi-family housing, and in the last decade the historic development of multi-family rental housing has continued to be insufficient to satisfy demand. Suggestion :Increase the land supply. The BLI data suggest that the City has capacity for about1,384 multi-family dwellings whereas it is anticipated that 1,759 units will be needed by 2040.One approach to encourage apartment development is to designate more land for higher concentrations of residential units (High and Medium Density zones). Suggestion :Promote development of residential units in commercial and employment zones.The BLI assumes commercial developments within employment and commercial zones would only utilize 50% of their allowable residential capacity on average. Increasing the prevalence of mixed use developments (beyond the 50% expectation) will effectively increase the net supply of land and the total capacity for multi-family units. Suggestion :Consider restricting uses in certain zones to apartments. The building permit data suggest that a significant amount of land designated for high-density multi- family housing has been developed as single-family attached types that are owner occupied units. Designating certain lands for rental units would encourage development of apartments. Suggestion :Examine opportunities for reductions in parking requirements for the provision of apartments meeting certain conditions. Studies have shown that the number - 6 - ofvehicles per household is lower in areas that are more conducive to walking and have greater access to transit (City of San Diego Feb. 2011).A unit’s size and level of affordability are additional conditions that could be further evaluated in consideration of needed parking and reduced parking requirements. Suggestion :Consider policies that encourage redevelopment or adaptive reuse of structures. The location of rental units is also important. Increasing the supply of rental units near employment centers and the University will make these units more attractive. Suggestion :Develop more government-assisted housing: The data show a need for nearly 800 dwelling units that are affordable to households with annual incomes of $10,000 or less. About 30% of these households, however, are in the 18-24 age range and another 25% are age 65 or over. The data suggest the City would need to develop as many as 50 units per year for the next 20 years to address this need. Given the number of total housing units developed in the City in any given year is typically less than 100, it is unlikely such a target could be met. A more realistic target would be a target based on a percentage of total units developed in collaboration with local housing organizations, which would be 10-15 units annually. Encourage more affordable single-family housing types . The average sales price of a single- family residence was over $282,000 in 2012. Following are some approaches that can increase more affordable single-family housing types: Suggestion: Evaluate land use incentives to provide for small lots intended for small unit development. The data show a strong correlation between lot size, unit size and housing cost. The City could consider reductions in minimum lot sizes in certain residential zones to specifically promote the development of smaller dwelling units. Suggestion :Evaluate land use requirements to reduce barriers for manufactured housing. The City has identified a need of 2.4% of all future housing to be manufactured homes in subdivisions and manufactured homes in parks. Revising existing policies to more readily enable the placement of manufactured homes is one potential approach to allowing more affordable single family housing. Suggestion :Evaluate land use incentives to promote affordable single family housing. The City should evaluate existing density bonus allocations to better incentivize the voluntary inclusion of affordable single family housing in future developments Suggestion :Consider allowing Accessory Residential Units as a permitted use in single family zones. The integration of ARUs into existing neighborhoods provides for small dedicated rental units serving single or two person households, and could also be a - 7 - resource for more affordable housing types. The City should evaluate ways to reduce regulatory barriers to the voluntary inclusion of ARUs in future developments and existing neighborhoods. Suggestion :Reduce development fees for low-income projects: The City should conduct a careful review of the components of housing cost and calculate the percentage of total unit cost that is a result of development fees. Following the Completion of the 2002 Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Action Plan the City has completed a number of actions that directly address the recommendations identified in the prior analysis including the following: Develop land use policies and incentives to encourage the development of affordable and needed housing types; Passed annexation and zone change ordinance requirements to require the o inclusion of affordable housing in new developments of a type commensurate with the market rate units provided Passed condominium conversion ordinance requirements that help preserve multi- o family rental housing and affordable housing. Passed minimum density ordinance requirements to ensure multi-family zoned o properties are developed at a minimum of 80% the base density and are thus not developed as large single family lots. Passed an ordinance amendment permitting small accessory residential units to be o located on small lots in multi-family zones. Develop more government-assisted housing Coordinated with the Housing Authority of Jackson County to develop 60 new o units of government assisted affordable rental housing and assisted the project through joint acquisition of land, CDBG awards, and reduced development fees. Reduce development fees for low-income projects Amended the City’s Affordable Housing System Development Charge waiver o program to ensure a minimum period of affordability of 30 years for assisted units. Amended the City’s Community Development and Engineering fee waiver o program to make affordable units automatically eligible for the waivers. Developed a Housing Trust Fund framework for the dedication of resources to o assist the City in meeting housing needs, Develop Organizational Capacity for Affordable Housing Dedicated General Fund and Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) o resources to maintain a full time Affordable Housing Program staff position to - 8 - work with providers of affordable housing to develop more government assisted housing locally; Prioritized the use of CDBG funds to support the development of affordable o housing consistently awarding the funds to projects that increase the supply of affordable housing City efforts, in collaboration with the local organizations providing affordable housing, have resulted in over 10% of all housing units developed since 2002 have been secured as 1 affordable to low-moderate income households. This percentage equates to a total of 178 units secured as affordable over the last decade. The housing needs analysis serves as a background report to the Housing Element of the City of Ashland’s Comprehensive Plan. The purpose of undertaking an analysis of housing needs is to increase the probability that needed housing types will be built and to ensure that the city has a suitable amount of land to meet the housing development needs. A housing needs analysis should include a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting housing needs and an up-to-date knowledge of trends affecting housing. Such factors along with household income and cost information, affect the need for various housing types in a community. Background-Oregon Planning Requirements for Housing Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 197.296 contains two key objectives. These relate to housing and land, as follows: Housing: Ensure that development occurs at the densities and mix needed to meet a community’s housing needs over the next 20 years; Land: Ensure that there is enough buildable land to accommodate the 20 year housing need inside the urban growth boundary (UGB). The City of Ashland is not required by state planning requirements to undertake a periodic review of housing need since ORS 197.296 only applies to communities with a population of 25,000 or more. However, as a guide to providing for the current and future housing needs of its citizenry, a housing needs analysis is a valuable tool. A housing needs analysis provides elected and appointed officials and city staff with the necessary data to make decisions that balance the needs of the community with regard to housing, redevelopment, annexation and growth management, the preservation of farm land and rural areas with the need to accommodate 1 See chart “Affordable Units per year” in Appendix D - 9 - population growth and economic development. This analysis reviews current conditions and sets the framework for policy discussions on housing needs. Purpose-Housing Need versus Housing Demand No one would argue that that everyone should have access to decent, safe and affordable housing, but what does that really mean? Historically the evolution of housing and the housing market have not always provided those basic elements of housing which many of us now take for granted. The market has not always had an incentive or a mandate to provide those basic elements nor was there always agreement on what constituted decent, safe, or affordable when applied to housing units. Decent Housing : The term decent housing speaks to the physical condition of housing units. Housing that lacks bathroom facilities, electricity, basic plumbing and heating and is free of open exterior holes or cracks, and infestation. One measure of safe and decent housing is the Housing Quality Standards (HQS) checklist developed by HUD (see appendix D). Safe Housing : Prior to 1927 there were no building codes, with the evolution of homeowner’s insurance and the fallout of multiple tragedies due to fire, many communities adopted Uniform Building Codes to create safety standards and regulate the building industry to ensure that such tragedies were averted. In the 1990’s the ICC (International Code Council) codes were adopted in most states across the country in an effort to standardize the accepted safety of residential and commercial buildings nationwide. Affordable Housing : Affordable housing refers to a household’s ability to find housing within their financial means. The standard measure of affordability as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is when the cost of rent and utilities (gross rent) is less than 30% of household income. When gross rent levels exceed 30% of income, particularly by a large percentage, it places a significant burden on household finances. Householders who pay more than 30% of their income toward housing costs are called “Cost burdened”. Householders who pay more than 50% of their income toward housing costs are called “severely cost burdened”. When households are housing “cost burdened” their ability to pay for the other necessities of life are compromised. “Needed housing”: As used in ORS 197.307, “needed housing” means housing types determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at particular price ranges and rent levels, including the following housing types: Attached and detached single-family housing and multiple family housing for o both owner and renter occupancy; Government assisted housing; o Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to o 197.490; Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family o residential use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions. - 10 - Growth Management and Housing Affordability While state policy does not make a clear distinction between need and demand, it is instructive to make such a distinction based on housing policy: Housing Need is based on the broad mandate of Goal 10 that requires communities plan for housing that meets the needs of households at all income levels. Thus, Goal 10 implies that everyone has a housing need. However standards defined by public agencies that provide housing assistance (primarily HUD), identify several need components: financial need, housing condition, crowding, and needs of special populations. Housing Market Demand is what households demonstrate they are willing to purchase or rent in the market place. Growth in population leads to a demand for housing units that is usually met primarily by the construction of new housing units by the private sector based on developer’s best judgments about the types of housing that will be absorbed by the market. It is the role of cities under Goal 10 to adopt and implement policies that will encourage the provision of housing units that meet the needs of all residents. It is unlikely that the housing market in any area will provide housing to meet the needs of every household. However, it is incumbent upon the jurisdiction to endeavor to meet the basic housing needs of its citizenry. At the extreme there is homelessness: some people do not have any shelter at all. Close behind follows substandard housing (with health and safety problems), space problems (the structure is adequate but overcrowded), and economic and social problems (the structure is adequate in quality and size, but a household has to devote so much of its income to housing payments that other aspects of its quality of life suffer). Moreover, while some housing is government assisted housing, public agencies do not have the financial resources to meet but a small fraction of that need. New housing does not and is not likely to fully address all these needs because housing developers, like any other business, typically try to maximize their profits. A common assumption concerning the impact of growth management policies is that by limiting the supply of developable land, such policies reduce the supply of housing. Basic economic theory suggests that if housing supply is low relative to demand, than the price for it will be high, reducing its affordability. However, this is a simplistic view. Housing prices are determined by a variety of complex factors, such as the price of land, the supply and types of existing housing, the demand for housing, the amount of residential choice in the region, and household mobility. Further in a community like Ashland, that is an attractive destination for both tourism and retirement, the “demand” for housing in the community is not isolated to the existing residential base. Rather national market forces are also factors in establishing local housing prices as the potential buyers of Ashland’s housing stock come from many areas around the country. - 11 - A report by the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy entitled “The Link between Growth Management and Housing Affordability: The Academic Evidence,” by Chris Nelson, Rolf Pendall, Gerritt Knapp and Casey Dawkins. The report, a comprehensive review of the academic literature on the link between growth management and housing affordability, found that: Market demand, not land constraints, is the primary determinant of housing prices . Whether growth management programs are in place or not, the strength of the housing market is the single most important influence on housing prices. For example, Portland’s growth in housing prices is more attributed to increase housing demand, increased employment and rising incomes than to its urban growth boundary. However, both traditional land use regulations and growth management policies can raise the price of housing, but they do so in different ways: Traditional zoning and other planning and land use controls limit the supply and accessibility of affordable housing, thereby raising home prices by excluding lower-income households. Such policies, already widespread in the U.S., include requirements for low-density, rules on minimum housing size, or bans against attached or cluster homes. Growth management policies improve the supply and location of affordable housing and accommodate other development needs, thereby increasing the desirability of the community and thus the price of housing. However, higher housing prices are often offset by lower transportation and energy costs and better access to jobs, services, and amenities. Since housing prices may increase in any land use environment, the decision for local governments is between good and bad regulation to improve housing choice. Traditional land use practices tend to zone for low-density, expensive homes that exclude lower- income households. Good growth management policies tend to incorporate policies that increase housing densities, mandate a mix of housing types, and promote regional fair 2 share housing. The housing needs assessment contained in this report will be used by the City of Ashland Community Development Department and the Ashland Housing Commission to develop a set of strategies to address housing needs in Ashland. The overarching goal is to ensure the development of a stable supply of housing for current and future residents of Ashland at all income levels, and household types. More specifically, this report is intended to present an evaluation of housing trends in Ashland since the last detailed assessment was completed in 2002, and project current and future housing needs based on 2010 Census data, community questionnaires, and the 2 The Brookings Institute, 2002. - 12 - Housing Needs Model created by former Oregon Housing and Community Services Economist Richard Bjeeland. Specifically, the report: Describes socioeconomic characteristics and trends that affect housing; Describes recent housing development trends; Describes housing condition, tenure, and sales; Assesses trends in jobs/housing location; Quantifies housing needs by type and density, and compares it with household incomes and other factors. Housing Needs Analysis Organization Following the introduction are sections presenting population trends and forecasts, rental housing and ownership housing development trends, forecasts based on population growth, affordability needs, and employment trends with relation to population changes and housing needs. Next the analysis will detail the City’s existing housing inventory, its current gaps and surpluses with future housing need projections based on the data from the Housing Needs Model and reconcile those projections with existing and proposed land inventory. Lastly the needs analysis will propose possible policy options for insuring that the City meets the housing and land use needs of the population well into the future. - 13 - Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) and the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) worked together to identify data and methodology gaps in implementing the State’s housing goal. The result is the Oregon Housing Model, which specifically links income and age to housing need and affordability. The analysis uses this housing model as a starting point for projecting Ashland’s housing needs to 2040. The analysis will examine Ashland’s housing stock in conjunction with the 2011 Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) and will then evaluate Ashland’s housing need by type and price. This analysis has been compiled using the following data sources: U.S. Census Data Analysis of current market conditions Community and property owner/manager questionnaire The Housing Needs Model Coordinated Population Projections from Jackson County Population Data from Portland State University’s Population Research Center Employment data from the Oregon Employment Department Housing and Development data from the City of Ashland and Jackson County All other citations and resources are referenced in the footnotes and attached bibliography. Historic Population Trends Incorporated in 1874, Ashland had a population of just 300. Located on a stage line with established woolen and lumber mills, the economy of the city at that time was predominantly agricultural. By 1900 the City had a grown to 3,000 residents. Ashland became the division point for the Southern Pacific’s San Francisco-Portland rail line. The city experienced a population boom with the coming of the rail road. In 1899 a normal school was established. Over time the institution became known as Southern Oregon State College and eventually Southern Oregon University. The University has helped attract diverse populations to the community contributing to both the economic and cultural development of the community. Between 1900 and 1950 the population grew steadily to 7,739. Then with the emergence of the timber industry in the Rogue Valley, the city once again experienced a population boom almost doubling in size to 12,342, by 1970. The decade between 1970 and 1980 saw heavy migration to Oregon from other states, in that time the City’s population increased by approximately 2,600 people. By the late 1970’s the main economic support for the Ashland community came from the - 14 - growth of the tourism industry spurred by the popularity of the Oregon Shakespeare Festival. The travel/tourism industry helped to establish a base for the hospitality industry, retail shops, and restaurants, as well as other cultural and artistic venues. By 1980, population growth tapered off as the City experienced the impacts of a statewide recession and the decline in the timber industry. The city long known for its cultural attractions and quality of life became an ideal spot for retirees. At the same time, mills were closing taking with them the living wage jobs that they provided to many area families. Despite the presence of Southern Oregon State College, the number of people aged 15-29 began to decrease. By the mid 1990’s an alarming trend of elementary school closures swept the city as families moved away in search of living wage jobs and affordable housing in neighboring cities. 3 This is especially Jackson County has a retirement population that exceeds the state average. true of Ashland which has been an attractive area for retirees. A demographers report completed for the Ashland School District by Portland State University’s Population Research Center noted that; “the largest population growth has been and will continue to be in age groups represented by the large baby boom cohort.” In 2000 there was an influx of people in the 40-50 age range, 4 and it is estimated that by 2020 the age will range from 60-70. This trend, illustrated in Table 1.1 below, is seen in retirement communities throughout the nation as the Baby Boomers, America’s largest generation ages. This has had a disproportionately greater impact on areas like Ashland and the rest of Southern Oregon, as they are popular areas for retirement. It is expected that the retirement population will continue to grow, at the same rate or faster than it has in the past two decades. The impact of a significant retiree population has had a marked affect on several aspects of the Ashland community. The needs of a largely older, retired population have significantly affected the types of employment found in Ashland and surrounding areas. There has been a significant increase in the number of health care, medical, and support service jobs due to this trend. Similarly, the rise in retail and service sector jobs is associated with this trend. Unfortunately these new employment opportunities on average offer relatively low wages. While the increase of the retirement population has created a demand for low wage jobs, it has also driven up the cost of living, specifically with regard to real estate. Lastly, as mentioned above, the increase in retirement age residents and the high cost of living has created a situation whereby families are finding housing and/or employment elsewhere, which is having an impact on local schools. 3 Southern Oregon Workforce Housing Summit, February 2006, pg. 23. 4 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Ashland School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2018-19, (Demographer Report), December 2008, Pg. 7. - 15 - Table 2.1 5 Ashland Population by Age Group % of % of % of % of 1990 2000 2008 2010 total total total total Under age 5 793 4.8% 802 4.1% 1,315 6.3% 1068 5.3% Age 5-9 923 4.7% 1,065 5.1% 1002 5% Age 10-14 1,144 5.9% 951 4.6% 1206 6.0% 5,391 33.2% Age 15-19 1,906 9.8% 1,613 7.8% 1655 8.2% Age 20-24 2,314 11.9% 2,251 10.8% 1885 9.4% Age 25-34 2,174 11.1% 2,873 13.8% 2248 11.2% 5,126 31.5% Age 35-44 2,378 12.2% 2,096 10.1% 1918 9.5% Age 45-54 1,545 9.5% 3,249 16.6% 2,072 10.0% 2694 13.4% Age 55-59 551 3.3% 1,042 5.3% 1,822 8.8% 1806 9.0% Age 60-64 595 3.6% 694 3.6% 1,318 6.3% 1406 7.0% Age 65-74 1,279 7.8% 1,272 6.5% 1,671 8.0% 1562 7.8% Age 75-84 771 4.7% 1,143 5.9% 1,279 6.2% 1259 6.3% 85 and over 184 1.1% 481 2.5% 456 2.2% 394 2.0% Total 16,234 19,522 20,782 20,103 100% 100% 100% 100% Population Total Population3,380 20.8% 4632 23.8% 6546 31.6% 6,427 32% 55 and older Economic Conditions As noted in the narrative above, the City’s economic development grew out of its location along major transportation routes, agricultural pursuits, and natural and cultural resources. As industries based on natural and agriculture resources waned, those farm and factory/mill jobs were replaced by predominantly service sector employment and health care driven by a shift in the population toward an older demographic (see table 1.2 above). Often these service sector jobs offer lower wages, fewer benefits, and less steady employment. These factors contributed greatly to a decrease in living wage jobs within the city, prompting many young families to seek employment elsewhere and lowering the median income of the area significantly. The 2006- 2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates the median household income for the City of Ashland at $40,140. This is lower than the median household income of Jackson County as a whole which is estimated to be $44,142, and significantly lower than the median income of the average American household, at $51,914. Similarly, the percentage of families and individual living below the poverty level is substantially greater in Ashland than in Jackson County, in the State of Oregon or in the rest of the Nation. See table 1.2 below for details. 5 United States. Bureau of the Census. 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and 1990, 2000 statistical abstract of the United States. - 16 - Table 2.2 Percent in Poverty Household type Ashland Jackson State of United States County Oregon Percentage of families in 11.5%9.9%9.6% 10.1% poverty Percentage of Individuals 18.8%14.0%14.0% 13.8% in poverty Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates 6 According to 2000 Census Data the highest proportion of low- and moderate-income households are found in the central areas of the city north of Siskiyou Blvd, primarily in census tracks 19.1, 19.2 and 18.4. This area has a larger proportion of the city’s multi-family properties and is located near the University. Census data does not account for the student or seasonal population so no conclusions can be drawn about how the student population affects these census tracts. Census data does show however that these census tracts have the highest percentage of minority populations and can be considered a concentration of minority population in the city with 18, 15, and 15 percent minority populations in each census tract respectively. Income in Oregon has been below the national average for the last quarter of a century. There are four basic reasons that income has been lower in Oregon and Jackson County than in the U.S. Wages for similar jobs are lower; The occupational mix of employment is weighted toward lower paying occupations; A higher proportion of the population in Jackson County consists of seniors who receive only social security; Due to a higher proportion of seniors in the population, there is a lower proportion of 7 working age residents. 6 2010 Census information at that level is not yet available. 7 City of Ashland, Planning Department, Economic Opportunities Analysis 2007. - 17 - Table 2.3 Household Income 2000-2010 Number of Percentage of Number of Percentage of households households households households (2000) (2000) (2010) (2010 ) All Households 8,552 100% 9,339 100% Less than 10,000 1,173 13.7% 906 9.7% $10,000 to $14,999 918 10.7% 677 7.2% $15,000 to $24,999 1,300 15.2% 1,203 12.9% $25,000 to $34,999 1,090 12.7% 1,286 13.8% $35,000 to $49,999 1,141 13.3% 1,490 16.0% $50,000 to $74,999 1,309 15.3% 1,553 16.6% $75,000 to $99,999 789 9.2% 779 8.3% $100,000 to $149,999 545 6.4% 819 8.8% $150,000 to $199,999 166 1.9% 294 3.1% $200,000 or More 121 1.4% 332 3.6% Median Income $32,670 $40,140 Sources: U.S Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census data Employment Census counts estimate that 16,564 residents are 16 years old and older; of that number 10,322 are in the labor force. The unemployment rate in Ashland at the time of the American Community Survey 2006-2010 5-year estimates was 8.1%. However, current Oregon Employment Department data shows the unemployment rates for Jackson County in March of 2012 were 10.6% down from 11.3% in March of 2011. The unemployment rate for the State of Oregon is slightly higher than that of the rest of the country; though significantly lower than that of Jackson County at 8.6%. Between 2000 and 2007 Jackson County added 10,246 jobs, twelve percent over the seven year period. Growth slowed in early 2008 and in October 2008 the country began to post year to year job losses. By 2010, employment had fallen below its 2004 level, mainly due to the loss of 9,550 8 jobs between 2007 and 2010. In a recent press release, the Oregon Employment Department stated. “As the recovery from the Great Recession continues, unemployment rates continue their slow downward drift. Unlike Oregon overall, job growth has yet to resume in the Rogue Valley. But we were in a deep hole and it will take a number of years to gain back all of the jobs lost. As government sectors are continuing to grapple with revenue losses, these sectors are poised for 9 continued job cuts.” Though all sectors of the economy have experienced severe job losses and contraction, the public sector, construction and the hospitality industry, three major employers in the region and in Ashland have been hard hit by the recent economic downturn. It would be difficult to estimate the true impact that the economic downturn has had on the employment 8 Current Employment by Industry,” Oregon Employment Department, OLMIS. Average annual non-farm employment in Jacskon County was 83,910 in 2007, 75,640 in 2008, and 74,360 in 2010. 9 Recent Trends: Region 8, Guy Tauer, Published April 1, 2012, Oregon Employment Department, Worksource qualityinfo.org - 18 - trends in the City of Ashland at this time. However, it is easy to surmise that there is a delicate balance to an economy based on health care, education, tourism, and recreation. Industries that rely on discretionary income often are the first to suffer in an economic downturn. Within the City of Ashland the hospitality industry, food service, retail trade, and entertainment top the list of industries in which a majority of area residents are employed. See table 1.4 below. Table 2.4 Employment and Industry Industry Ashland Medford Jackson State of County Oregon Education Services, Health Care, Social 27.9% 20.1% 21.1% 20.9% Assistance Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, 16.6% 11.7% 10.5% 9.2% Accommodation, and food service Retail Trade 11.9% 18.2% 16.3% 12.3% Professional, Scientific, Management, 13.1% 8.9% 9.1% 10.0% Administrative, waste management Manufacturing 4.9% 8.8% 8.8% 11.8% Construction 4.8% 6.1% 7.3% 7.0% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental 3.3% 6.9% 5.5% 6.4% and Leasing. Source: Bureau of the Census. 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Table 2.4 shows that the predominant industries in Medford and Ashland are largely similar, but that the macro-economies of Jackson County and the State of Oregon as a whole show a more equitable distribution of employment throughout several diversified industries, though all employment within the state relies heavily on Education, Health Care, and Social Assistance. All of the predominant industries in the state show a particular vulnerability toward the housing and stock market’s collapse and the ensuing economic downturn. This no doubt accounts for the State of Oregon having one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Many Ashland Residents are employed outside of the City, and conversely many employees of Ashland businesses live outside of the Ashland Community. The 2006-2010 American Community Survey estimates that 68.6% of workers 16 years old and older commute an average of 16 minutes to get to their place of employment. The majority of those commuting to work drove alone, 6.2 percent carpooled, 1.3 percent took public transportation, and 18 percent used other means. The remaining 13.3 percent worked at home. This number has grown since 2000, when 65.2% of workers reported commuting to work. Workers who routinely commute to work put added strain on both the environment through the production of pollution and the demand for fossil fuels, and public infrastructure such as roadways and parking. The City of Ashland continues to experience issues with traffic congestion, pedestrian safety, and parking. The lack of housing which is affordable, accessible, and located near employment options continues to strain the city’s resources and hamper its economic development.In the 2006 Workforce Housing Summit Workbook, Guy Tauer, Regional Economist with the Oregon Employment - 19 - Department stated “Many communities and businesses have realized that their future economic prosperity is dependent on being able to provide adequate and affordable housing for their 10 workforce, and have taken a proactive approach to dealing with this impending crisis.” In 2011 the Ashland City Council Adopted an Economic Development strategy which was the result of an extensive public process guided by two sub-committees appointed by the Mayor and confirmed by the Council. The subcommittees consisted of representatives from the business community, economic professionals, regional and state economic development agencies and community stakeholders. The Economic Development strategy identifies several strengths and weaknesses in the current economic environment. Namely, the City’s primary economic industry which once consisted of mill/factory work has been replaced by tourism. The nature of tourism in the region is seasonal and the wages are traditionally low. Two factors stand out as having an adverse impact upon the potential for economic development in Ashland; housing affordability, particularly the lack of workforce housing and the limited land 11 The City adopted a Buildable Lands Inventory update in supply for industrial development. 2011 which has since determined that the current supply of developable commercial lands is 12 greater than the land need projected by the EOA (Appendix Table A4). Community Visions and Values In April 2009, the Ashland City Council began work on goals to guide the City’s work for the next 18 to 24 months. To guide their goal setting, the City Council first defined their values. They described, in positive terms, the things they use to make decisions about what is good for the community and good for the City of Ashland as an organization. As members of the Ashland City Council, we value: Participatory government. We value government that is open, accessible, honest and democratic. We value responsive and visionary leadership by elected officials. We have professional, high quality staff. We seek to be efficient and effective with public funds. Our citizens are engaged with their local government as volunteers and in critical community decisions. Natural Environment. Our town is part of nature’s community. We seek to enhance the quality of water, land, air, and wildlife. We actively support energy conservation and alternative energy generation. Our parks and open spaces provide habitat for plants and animals and access to nature for our residents. Responsible Land Use . We value sustainable use of land, water, energy, and public services; our architectural heritage; and buildings with quality design and construction. 10 Southern Oregon Workforce Housing Summit, February 2006. 11 Economic Opportunity Analysis for the City of Ashland, Eco-northwest, 2007. 12 City of Ashland, Planning Department, Buildable Lands Inventory 2001, pg 11. - 20 - We value a vibrant downtown, Lithia Park and strong neighborhoods. We support transit, bicycling, and walking throughout our land use plans. Free Expression . We invite the exchange of diverse ideas. We value the social, economic, and creative contributions of the arts, cultural activities, and community events. Diversity . We are a welcoming community that invites and respects the individuality and contributions of all people. Economy . We value an economy that creates wealth for all. We strive to nurture homegrown business and to connect local consumers to local products. Our economy supports arts and culture, connects to Southern Oregon University, and supports high quality public services. We value a business community in tune with the environment and that provides good wages and economic choices for individuals and families. Distinctiveness . Ashland is a unique part of the Rogue Valley. We depend on partnerships in our community and region to meet many of the needs of our residents. At the same time, we value our ability to develop innovative approaches and to chart our own course. Education . We value lifelong education. We value the social, economic, cultural, and civic contributions of strong, integrated educational institutions. Basic Needs . We believe each person needs public safety, water, sanitation, adequate food, clothing, housing, transportation, and health care. Community . We believe Ashland is a unique and special place. Residents participate in community life and feel a sense of belonging. Community gardens, neighborhoods, schools, volunteerism, and events bring our residents together. Residents look out for each other and support those in need. What objectives do housing policies try to achieve? The development of new housing units is primarily driven by the private market and are built and owned privately. While land use powers of local governments can impact the development of certain housing types, the primary role of local governments has been on regulation to promote public health and safety and to provide for the installation of infrastructure. Housing policies work to address housing in four categories: Community Life. From a community perspective, housing policy is intended to provide and maintain safe, sanitary and satisfactory housing with efficiently and economically organized community facilities to service it. In other words, housing should be coordinated with other community and public services. Although local policies do not always articulate this, they are implicit in most local government operations. - 21 - Comprehensive plans, zoning, subdivision ordinances, building codes, and capital improvement programs are techniques most cities use to manage housing an its development. Local public facilities such as schools, fire and police stations, parks, and roads are usually designed and coordinated to meet demands created by housing development. Social and equity concerns. The key objective of social goals is to reduce or eliminate housing inadequacies affecting the poor, those unable to find suitable housing, and those discriminated against. In other words, communities have an obligation to provide safe, satisfactory housing opportunities to all households, at costs they can afford, without regard to income, race, religion, national origin, family structure, or disability. Design and environmental quality. The location and design of housing affect the natural environment, residents’ quality of life, and the nature of community life. The objectives of policies that address design and environmental quality include neighborhood and housing designs that meet: household needs, maintain quality of life, provide efficient use of land and resources, reduce environmental impacts, and allow for the establishment of social and civic life and institutions. Most communities address these issues though local building codes, comprehensive land use plans, and development codes. Stability of production. Housing is a factor in every community’s economy. The cyclical nature of housing markets, however, crates uncertainties for investment, labor, and builders. The International City Manager’s Association suggests that local government policies should address this issue-most do not. Moreover, external factors (e.g. interest rates, cost building materials, etc.) that bear upon local housing markets tend to undermine the effectiveness of such policies. - 22 - Analysis of historical development trends provides insights into how the local housing market is working. The housing type, mix, and density of past trends are key variables in forecasting future land need. To undertake such an analysis the following parameters are established: Determine the time period for which the data must be gathered. Identify types of housing to address (all needed housing types). Evaluate permit/subdivision data to calculate the actual mix, average actual gross density, and average actual net density of all housing types. In completing this analysis the City reviewed the housing mix and density of development that occurred from 2000 through 2011 (as the 2002 HNA reviewed that data through 2001). This long term analysis provides greater insight into the functioning of the local housing market than would a typical five year period given fluctuation especially in consideration of the national housing market collapse following the subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2008. Table 3.1 shows the actual type distribution of new housing units developed between 2000 and 2011. Table 3.1 Housing mix by Permit Issued 2000-2011 Housing Type BuildingsUnitsPercent of Units Single-Family 1159 1159 80.3% Two-Family 19 38 2.6% Three and Four-Family 14 45 3.1% Five or More 30 202 13.9% Total 1222 1444 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau data 2000 and 2010 According to Census Data, Ashland added 1,444 new dwelling units between 2000 and 2011. This is a 16% increase in the total number of dwellings over 10 years. This rate of unit growth is down from 26% in the previous ten year period. As seen in the table above (Table 3.1), the trend identified in both the 2002 HNA and the 2007 RNA, of single family development over multi- family development has continued. Residential Construction Trends Housing development trends identified in the 2002 HNA have persisted. Namely single family housing development has continued to outstrip the development of multi-family housing by a significant margin. The need for multi-family housing continues to grow, while the development of multi-family housing continues to lag. Rental units in price ranges affordable to those with - 23 - the lowest incomes are in the most demand. Lastly, ownership housing affordable to those making median income to 120% of Area Median Income in Ashland despite recent gains is still out of reach. Single Family In 2000 the estimate of one-unit detached, and one-unit attached dwelling units represented 65.3% of the housing stock. The 2008-2010 ACS estimates that one-unit attached and detached units make up 71.9% of the City’s housing stock. This is an increase of 6.6% over the past decade. There has been and continues to be a clear trend of the development of single-family housing types over all other housing types. Multi-family The 2008-2010 ACS estimates that Ashland’s housing stock is made up primarily of single family units, with only 29.4% multi-family units. This disparity in the development of single family versus multi-family development is shown in table 3.1 above. Condominium Ownership The City allows conversion of existing apartments to ownership units only in cases where 25% of the units converted are affordable and where the current residents have first right of refusal. The Affordable Housing Program parameters under resolution 2006-13 establish that rental apartments converted into condominiums are to be affordable at the 80% income level for a period of not less than 30 years. Since 2003, ninety-two units have converted from rental units to condo-minimized ownership units. Twenty-eight of those units which have converted have been deed restricted as affordable. In that same period sixty-three new Condominium units have been developed. Since 2008 no new condominium units have been built or converted. Retirement and assisted living The City of Ashland has three large retirement/assisted living facilities and one nursing home. Altogether these facilities comprise 293 dwelling units and maintain an average occupancy rate of approximately 82%. These facilities were developed primarily in the 1980’s and early 1990’s. No new facilities have been developed in the last decade. Group care homes The City currently has a total of five group homes for youth and special needs populations able to accommodate up to 28 individuals. The University has four group housing complexes on campus offering a total of 1070 beds. The university is currently in the process of building a new residence hall which is estimated to house over 800 people within two separate buildings. However, these new beds will not increase capacity but will replace existing beds currently available in other complexes whose space will be converted to other uses. - 24 - Table 3.2 2006-2010 ACS 5-Year Estimates Housing Units by Type Units In Structure 20002000 % 2010 2010 % % Change Estimate Estimate 9,071 100% 10,230 100% 12.8% Total Housing Units 5,375 59.3% 6,503 63.6% 21% 1-Unit, detached 544 6.0% 853 8.3% 56.8% 1-Unit, attached 458 5.0% 526 5.1% 14.8% 2 Units 3-4 Units 641 7.1% 530 5.2% -17.3% 5-9 Units 609 6.7% 513 5.0% -15.8% 10-19 Units 380 4.2% 405 7.3% 6.6% 20 or More Units 821 9.1% 746 7.3% -9.1% Mobile Home 225 2.5% 154 1.5% -31.6% Table 3.3 Homeownership/Rental Rate Comparison % Renters 2000 % Owners 2000 % Renters 2010 % Owners 2010 Ashland 47.7% 52.3% 49% 51% Jackson County 33.5% 66.5% 36.7% 63.3% State of Oregon 35.7% 64.3% 36.2% 63.8% U.S. Census Bureau Income and affordability of Housing Housing costs are influenced by several factors, including: lot size, land cost, availability of materials, labor, interest rates, and supply and demand. Housing Choice is often driven by a household’s income. Similarly, income is a key indicator of a households’ ability to find and retain safe, decent housing. Income is also the main determinant in most householders’ housing choice. A household which is cost burdened by a rent or mortgage payment (an amount which requires a 30% or more of a household’s income) is less stable and more susceptible to losing that housing should some disruption to employment, health crisis or other unexpected circumstance arise. These vulnerable households can then fall into homelessness, or require state or federal assistance to become stable again. Ability of a household to afford monthly rent or mortgage costs will, for the most part, also be the determining factor in where a householder chooses to live. Often the household will forego other housing priorities, such as square footage, bedroom size, household amenities, commute time to work, and other quality of life choices due to housing affordability. Renter households are two times more likely to be cost burdened than owner households. Approximately 2,737 or 63% of renter households experience cost burden, while only 1,352 or 48% of homeowners experience cost burden from housing costs. This can be attributed in part to a higher percentage of low-income rental households than owner households. In 2000, 37% of Ownership households paid less than 15% of their incomes toward mortgage costs, while a full - 25 - 13 45% of renters paid more than 35% of their incomes toward housing costs. In the ensuing decade the rapid rise in housing values has substantially increased the costs of homeownership, but even with that increase homeowners as a group still tend to experience less cost burden than renters. As seen in Section II- Framework for Housing Needs-Community Context, the City of Ashland has a higher percentage of families and individuals living below the poverty level than Jackson County or the State of Oregon as a whole. The City also has a higher proportion of lower paying service sector jobs and a higher percentage of seniors in the population than in other parts of the County or State. These factors contribute to the large percentage of households experiencing cost burden. According to the State Housing and Community Services Department, housing cost in 1990 was increasing at a rate of 9% while household income increased at an annual rate of 2%. Between 2000 and 2010 median mortgage costs for homeowners in Ashland went up by 53%. Rental costs for Ashland residents increased 47% in that same period. While median Household income 14 increased by only 22.9%. This long term trend of housing costs outstripping incomes has exacerbated the demand for affordable housing throughout the state. The increasing need for affordable housing units has taxed the traditional methods of funding affordable housing and cannot be sustained into the future should the trend continue. Rental Units 2008-2010 ACS estimates that 48.2% of all occupied housing units or 4,498 are renter occupied units. Fair Market rents for Jackson County as established by the Department of Housing and Urban Development mandate the maximum amount that projects developed using Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) or Tax-Exempt bonds are allowed to charge. These amounts correspond to the HUD income guidelines for that area. In 2012 the Fair Market rent for a two bedroom unit was $807 a month. In order for an individual to afford a rental unit at that rate, and not experience cost burden, they would need to earn $15.13 an hour.Currently the 2008-2010 ACS estimates that the median income for a worker in Ashland is $19,042 per year or $9.92 an hour. Currently a HUD regulated two bedroom unit in Ashland is mandated to rent for $590 a month. In 2012 the City of Ashland posted a questionnaire on the City’s website that looked as specific housing related questions some of which corresponded to questions posed in the 2007 Rental Needs Analysis’ random call survey conducted by Riley Research. The City also sent out a business reply mailer to a selected list of rental property owners and property management companies compiled from two sources; the City’s business license registry( which included all businesses who rent six or more units), and the list of rental properties developed by SOU 13 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and 2000 Census. 14 Ibid. - 26 - planning students in 2007. The information gathered from the community questionnaire and the direct mailing are cited throughout this document. One question posed asked respondents to rate rental housing options in three areas on a scale of one to ten. Of the 110 respondents that answered the question, the majority believed that the availability of rental options, the quality of rentals, and rental pricing were all less than satisfactory. While the majority of the respondents felt that rent availability and quality were somewhat satisfactory, the overwhelming majority of respondents felt that rental pricing was unsatisfactory. Chart 3.1 Extremely-Low Income (Less than 30% of Area Median Income): As shown in Chart 3.2 below, the findings of the Housing Needs Model for the City of Ashland using 2010 Census Data, the City of Ashland has a shortage of rental units affordable to those residents with the lowest incomes; those making less than $10,000 a year. According to the Housing Needs Analysis, only 3.05% of the City’s rental housing stock meets the needs of this population at approximately 152 units. The City’s current need for rental housing in a price range affordable to those with the lowest income is estimated to be 955 units; this leaves a gap of approximately 803 units to meet the needs of these very low income households. Housing Units affordable to these populations, which include predominantly households under the age of 35 and to a lesser extent over the age of 55, could be offset by Housing Choice (formerly section 8) Vouchers. The - 27 - 729 households under the age of 35 that report having an income of under $10,000 a year may be due in part to the presence of Southern Oregon University, which includes a high percentage of non-traditional students. Currently there are approximately 100 households who receive a rental subsidy voucher from the Department of Housing and Urban Development to offset housing costs. There are 142 project based subsidized rental units located within the City of Ashland. Of these units 73 are set to expire within the next 5 years and the waiting list for portable vouchers through the Housing Authority of Jackson County is approximately three to four years out. Households making 30% of the AMI or less make up approximately 12.2% of all Ashland households. Low-Income (Between 30% and 50% of Area Median Income): The current supply of housing units affordable to low-income populations represents approximately 5.68% of the City’s rental housing stock or 283 units. The current estimated need for housing affordable to this income group is 1,052 units; leaving a gap of approximately 769 units. The proportion of households represented by this income group is fairly evenly dispersed though all age groups and represents 11.3% of all households. Moderate Income (Between 50% and 80% of Area Median Income): The current supply of housing units affordable to moderate income populations represents approximately 49.3% of the City’s rental housing stock or 2,453 units. This is by far the majority of the City’s rental housing stock, however at the low end of the income scale (50%) nearly half of the units that fall in this rental category would not be affordable. The need for rental units at this price point is in far less demand as the current need is estimated to be 1,420 units, leaving a surplus of 1,034 rental units affordable to people making between 50 and 80 percent of the AMI. Median Income and above (100% and above): The current supply of housing units affordable to the population making above 80% AMI represents approximately 42% of all rental housing units. At 2,088 units, rental housing units in this price range (approximately $898-over $1,133 a month) are in the least demand, with current need estimated to be approximately 840 households able to afford units in this price range, creating a surplus of 1,248 units. The surplus in units may be due to the fact that households that are able to afford a higher rent may be opting for a unit below that which that household may be able to afford, thereby exacerbating the deficit of rentals at the lower end of the income scale. - 28 - CChart 3.2 Current Houssing Balannce-RentalUnits by ccost range 20000 15000 10000 5000 00 0$194$195$$422$4233$655$656$897$$898$1132$1133+ 5000 10000 ousing StockCrrent NeeCurrent Surplus HHuudd Ownershhip Units Extremelly-Low Incoome (Less thhan 30% ofAArea Mediann Income): An individuual making 330% of AMI oor $12,300 aa year accordding to the 20012 HUD inncome guidellines would be able to affford to purchaase a housingg unit for a mmaximum off $51,115. TThere is veryy little availaability of houusing at this inccome level, Rogue Valleey Habitat foor Humanityy provides hoousing targetting extremeely low-income househoolds,but withh the extremmely low purcchase price tthe private mmarket is unaable to providde ownershipp units at thiss level. Somme Mobile annd Manufacttured home uunits in a parrk might be within this pprice range. Low-Incoome (Betweeen 30% andd 50% of Areea Median IIncome): Thhe Housing NNeeds Analyysis estimatess that there aare 150 existting units avaailable for $72.3 thousannd and beloww, and an estimatedd need of 401 units at thiis level. Thiis leaves a gap of 251 owwnership uniits affordable to househollds earning 330%-50% off the AMI. Moderatte Income (BBetween 50%% and 80% oof Area Meddian Incomee): The numbber of ownerrship units avaailable that arre affordablee to people mmaking 50%% to 80% of AAMI is estimmated to be approximmately 260.The estimateed need for oownershipuunits costing between $722K-$185.3KK is 2,070. Thhe units at thhe high end oof the price sscale would be unaffordable to thosee earning bellow 50% of AAMI. - 29 - MedianIIncome: Thhere is a limiited supply oof ownershipp units afforddable to thosse earning median inncome. Acccording to thhe National AAssociation oof Home Buuilders Afforrdable Housiing 15 Price Callculator, a householdmmaking the mmedian incomme for the MMedford/Ashlland area could afford to purchase a hhouse for $1163,126. The calculator assumes a 220% down paayment, currrent interest rrates on a 30 year fixed loan assuminng a 90% loaan to value ratio. The Housing Needds Model esstimates thatt there are appproximatelyy 410 units aavailable bet3300 and beloow. ween $185, While maany househoolds earning median incoome could quualify for a lloan to purchhase a housee at the lowerr end of the scale, those same househholds wouldd be cost burddened it theyy had to pay a mortgagee on a housinng unit of ovver $163,0000. Over 78%% of the Cityy’s ownershiip housing sttock consists of units whhich cost $2779,300 and above,wwhile the demmand for houusing units inn that price rrange is onlyy about 1,7500 householdss. From Chhart 3.3 beloww it is clear tthat the private market hhas providedd a surplus off high cost housing,over 2,255 uunits, while the remaininng 22% of thhe housing sttock availabble for sale costing leess than $2779,300 is in ssuch demandd that there is a housing gap of 3,1477 units. The highestddemand is for those unitss affordable tto householdds making thhe 100% AMMI to 120% AAMI at approxximately 1,332 househollds. CChart 3.3 CurrrentHoousingBaalanceOOwnershhipUnitss 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 72.3K723K<110.1K110.1K<147.6K147.6K<1855.3K185.3K<279.3K279.3++ 1000 HousingSStockCuurrentNeedCurrenntSurplus 15 Nationall Association oof Homebuilderrs affordabilityy calculator: http://wwww.nahb.org/genneric.aspx?geneericContentID==78355 - 30 - While it is clear that it is not profitable for the private market to build housing targeting those households at the 50% of AMI and below, housing units targeting 50% to 100% AMI while slightly more feasible still requires some incentive and subsidy to make the development feasible. Further, these units will have to compete with units of a similar price in the nearby markets of Talent, Phoenix, and Medford, which while requiring a longer commute time, can often offer more house for the same or even a lower price. At the same time the only entities that can provide ownership housing targeting moderate and low-income households are affordable housing providers, which utilize federal, state and local tax credit and subsidy programs in order to develop such units. These entities are few in a small region like Southern Oregon and must compete with the rest of the state for funding. Capacity building for these affordable housing entities can be difficult as affordable housing financing can be a complex and highly competitive process, and more so in a time of shrinking federal and state funding for such programs. Buildable land supply Land supply affects land price and by extension, housing price.Statewide Planning Goal 10, and ORS 197.296, requires communities to maintain a 20-year supply of buildable residential land within their Urban Growth Boundaries. The City of Ashland’s supply of buildable lands was recently quantified in the 2011 Buildable Lands inventory adopted in November 2011. The land availability component of a Buildable Lands Inventory needs to be compared to the expected demand for various housing types to ensure minimum 20 year availability. This Housing Needs Analysis provides a detailed assessment of precisely what mix of housing types will be needed through 2040 (see Table 7.1). Using this projected housing type need, and correlating it to the land availability in each Comprehensive Plan designation we can ascertain whether sufficient land will be available over the next 20 years or longer. Table 3.4 Housing demand /capacity comparison by unit type SFRMultifamilyTotals Existing Dwelling Unit Capacity (2010 BLI) 146913842853 Needed Units per Housing Gap Analysis 1557 1759 3316 through 2040 Deficit by 2040 -88 -375 -463 Annual units needed through 2040 55.6 62.8 118.4 Total Year Supply 26.4 22.0 24.1 - 31 - The City estimates vacant buildable lands in all designations that allow residential uses have a total capacity of 2853 dwelling units within the urban growth boundary. This estimate includes a 50% reduction for residential on Commercial and Employment Lands as such units are not required and it is unlikely that all future commercial development will incorporate a residential component. As demonstrated in Table 3.4 this capacity would accommodate approximately 22 years of multi-family housing growth, and 26.4 years of single family development. Distribution of these potential housing units on available buildable lands based on comprehensive plan designation is more fully detailed below. Table 3.5 Future Needed Unit Distributed by Comprehensive Plan Designation Dwelling Units by Type Existing Dwelling Net Buildable distributed into existing capacity Comprehensive Plan Unit Capacity Acres (2011 BLI) SFRMulti-family Per Airport Airport 0 0 0 Master Plan Commercial 15.8 252 0 252 Croman Mill 62.8 340 0 340 Downtown 2 53 0 53 Employment 105.1 221 0 221 HC 1.4 15 0 15 HDR 8.9 162 0 162 Industrial 12.1 0 0 0 LDR 38.1 70 70 0 MFR 30.8 323 0 323 NM 17.7 118 100 18 SFR 214 875 875 0 SFRR 48 103 103 0 SOU 19.5 SOU Master Plan 0 0 Suburban R 42.3 311 311 0 Woodland 4.3 10 10 0 Totals 622.8 2853 1469 1384 Expected Dwelling Units Note: on Commercial and Employment Lands have been reduced by 50% from what would be permitted as such units are not required. - 32 - Single Family and Manufactured housing, detached 2010 ACS estimates that there are 10,203 total housing units within the City of Ashland. Of that total 6,710 are 1 unit detached, and 46 are Mobile home units on individual lots. Between 1990 and 2010 there has been a marked increase in the supply of attached and detached single family units. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of single family detached units increased by 52%, between 2000 and 2010 that increase was 21%. While the number of mobile home units in the City decreased by 1.5%. (See Table 3.2 on page 24). Manufactured housing units in parks As mentioned above the number of mobile home units located in the City has decreased in recent years after remained fairly consistent. Between 1990 and 2000 the number of mobile home units in the City increased by 18%, then between 2000 and 2010 the number of mobile home units decreased by 9% for an overall 20 year decrease of 1.9%. There are currently two mobile home parks within the City. A park formerly located across the street from “Upper Pines”, known as “Lower Pines” was sold and the purchasers redeveloped the land in to a mixed use commercial development, the loss of this park may account for the decrease in units between 2000 and 2010. Multiple or single-family units, attached ; 2010 ACS estimates that there are 810 1- unit attached, 424 duplexes (2-units), and 2,194 units of three or more, down from 2,451 just ten years earlier. All together multi-family and single family attached housing types make up 38.2% of the total housing stock. Another trend which is highlighted in the Table 3.2 on page 24 has been the decrease of medium and large scale multi-family developments. The number of multi-family units consisting of more than 4 housing units has decreased significantly between 1990 and 2005. Complexes consisting of between 5 and 19 saw a decrease of 2% between 1990 and 2000, similarly complexes consisting of more than 20 units saw a 9.1% decrease between 2000 and 2010. This is due in part to the conversion of multi-family rental properties to saleable condominium units, caused by the high land values of the past decade within the City of Ashland. In 2006, the City passed a condominium conversion ordinance in an effort to mitigate the loss of existing affordable and market rate rental properties which were not being replaced by the market. In 2007, a comprehensive inventory of multi-family housing units was completed by Southern Oregon University. This inventory also took into account additional uses of properties located in these multi-family zoned areas. This inventory allowed the City to see patterns of development within these areas. One pattern that stood out from the data collected was that single family units on single parcels were the most common housing type found in these multi-family zones. Single - 33 - family homes comprised one third of all housing units in these zones. This highlights another predominant problem with the development of multi-family properties, the majority of the property zoned for multi-family, higher density development does not build out as such contributing to a lack of more affordable housing types. Government assisted housing (below market-rate housing) Most people think of government assisted housing as Public housing or subsidized housing through the Housing Choice Voucher (formerly known as the Section-8 program) program However, there are several different avenues in which the government assists developers to provide affordable housing. Many large scale developments utilize a combination of funding sources in order to complete a project. Detailed below are a few of the most prevalent types of government assisted housing programs: Low-income Housing Tax Credit Program (LIHTC):The Federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program assists both for-profit and non-profit housing developers in financing affordable housing projects for low-income families and individuals. Some local developers of affordable housing are eligible to apply to Oregon Housing and Community Services which allocates funds based on a statewide Consolidated Plan. The City of Ashland has two projects totaling 66 units developed using LIHTCs and expects to see another six unit tax credit project developed in the near future. Public Housing Assistance-Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program: The Housing Authority of Jackson County is the local provider of HUD funded housing programs such as the Housing Choice Voucher program and the Public Housing program. Currently the Housing Authority receives approximately 1390 Housing Choice Vouchers for all of Jackson County. Just over 100 of those vouchers are provided to City of Ashland residents. There are no public housing units in Jackson County. Home Program: The City of Ashland is not currently a participating jurisdiction for HUD’s HOME funds. Some local developers of affordable housing are eligible to apply to Oregon Housing and Community Services which allocates funds based on a statewide Consolidated Plan. USDA Rural Development Mutual Self Help Home Loans/SHOP: The Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development offers several loan options to assist low to moderate income households attain homeownership. In recent years the City of Ashland has awarded Rogue Valley Community Development Corporation CDBG funds to help leverage funds and initiate two Self help homeownership projects comprising 30 units that utilized funds from Rural Development programs. Rogue Valley Community Development Corporation has utilized Self Help Ownership Program (SHOP) grant funds awarded to Community Frameworks from HUD on these projects. Similarly USDA Rural Development also offers low-interest loans and grants to assist low to moderate income homeowner’s complete health and safety repairs on their homes. The City also contains three large scale multi-family projects financed with Rural - 34 - Development loan funds. All together these units account for 153 units of below market rate and subsidized housing within the City. Community Development Block Grant Funds (CDBG): The City of Ashland is a Participating Jurisdiction for the Community Development Block grant program and as such receives an annual allocation of funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development to undertake a variety of activities including the provision of affordable housing. The City has often prioritized the use of CDBG funding in support of affordable housing projects. Table 4.1 Government Assisted Rental Units Property Name Property Assistance Number of Number of IncomeContract Type Type Units Assisted LimitExpiration Date Units Ashley Garden Family RD 40 20 60% RD Ashley Senior Senior RD 62 41 60% RD Stratford Family Section 8 51 17 100% RD 16 Chief Tyee Family Section 8 32 29 30% 7/31/09 Donald E. Lewis Senior Section 8 40 40 30% 5/11/10 Star Thistle Disabled Section 8 12 12 50% 9/30/09 Sun Village Family Section 8 12 12 30% 1/20/13 17 Takilma Village Family Section 8 14 14 60% 8/31/09 18 Johnston Manor Senior Section 8 34 34 60% 12/26/08 TOTAL 297 219 Seasonal Units The City of Ashland has a thriving tourism industry. Consequently many housing units in the City are utilized on a seasonal rather than year round basis. It is difficult to discern the actual number of seasonal and vacation rental units there are in the City, due to the proliferation of unregistered units, however the City does keep a database of businesses registered as travelers accommodations located within the City. In May of 2012 a total of seventy five businesses have registered with the city as having a traveler’s accommodation or vacation rental units; these units come in many forms, from hostel, motels, and hotels, to individual cottage units and bed and breakfasts. Many of these housing units represent units not meant for year round occupancy, so although counted by census in the housing total, they are counted as vacant units. Between 2000 and 2010 the number of these units has doubled, and they now represent 3.8% of the City’s housing stock. These units will not contribute to the overall housing inventory available to meet the types of housing need quantified in this analysis. 16 The owners of the Chief Tyee complex opted out of their HUD contract in 2009. This complex is no longer mandated to be affordable although it was initially developed using HUD funding. 17 The owners of the Takilma Village complex opted out of their HUD contract in 2010. 18 The owners of the Johnston Manor complex opted out of their HUD contract in 2009. This complex is no longer mandated to be affordable although it was initially developed using HUD funding. - 35 - Owner Occupied units Owner occupied units represent 51.6% of all occupied dwelling units. There are 4,856 owner- occupied dwelling units in Ashland occupied by approximately 10,210 individuals. The average household size for owner-occupied dwelling units is 2.10 people per unit. Rental Units Renter occupied units represent 48.4% of all occupied dwelling units. There are 4553 renter- occupied dwelling units in Ashland occupied by approximately 8,907 individuals. The average household size for renter-occupied dwelling units is 1.96 people per units, slightly less than the household size of the average owner occupied unit. Housing Age and Condition The majority of housing in Ashland, 59.6%, was built prior to 1979; with 16.6% or 1,695 units being built prior to 1939. Despite the relative age of much of the housing stock, there are very few units which lack basic amenities. Only 1.9% of all occupied housing units lacked complete plumbing or kitchen facilities. 47.6% of all housing units were built between 1970 and 2000, 19 with the most new building activity taking place between 1990 and 2000. Though there are many other factors that contribute to housing considered to be substandard those factors are not accounted for in the Census information. There is little other comprehensive data to gain an accurate picture of substandard housing conditions within the City. Lead Based Paint Hazards: The age of the housing unit is a leading indicator of thepresence of – leadhazard, along with building maintenance. Lead was banned from residential paint in 1978. Of the 10,319 total housing units in the City of Ashland 68% (7,000) were built prior to 1980. The 1999 national survey found that 67% of housing built before 1940 had significant LBP hazards. This declined to 51% of houses built between 1940 and 1959, 10% of houses built 20 between 1960 and 1977 and just 1% after that. Based on those estimates, over 3,300 homes pose potential lead-based paint hazards in Ashland. Vacancy Rates Between 2000 and 2010 vacancy rates for rental and ownership units have remained relatively unchanged. At 4.2% and 1.0% respectively, rental and ownership vacancy rates in 2010 are relatively low. Survey results, census data, and American Community Survey (ACS) estimates show that the vacancy rates in Ashland typically range between 3% and 4%. A recent survey/questionnaire conducted in 2012 by the City showed the current rental vacancy rate to be 1%. This rate is below that of the overall rate for Jackson County at 3% and for the state of 19 United States. Bureau of the Census. 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates. 20 Clickner, R. et al. (2001) National Survey of lead and Allergens in Housing, Final Report, Volume 1: Analysis of Lead Hazards. Report Office of Lead Hazard Control, US Department of Housing And Urban Development. - 36 - Oregon as a whole at 5.6%. The overall impact of a low vacancy rate is that there are fewer options in the rental market when people are looking for a unit to rent. Housing Value Housing value is a key indicator of housing affordability. The housing market has been extremely volatile in the past decade since the last Housing Needs Analysis was completed. However, despite a housing boom and the ensuing bust that played out in the intervening decade, the findings of this recent effort are much the same as they were in 2002. In the decade since the last HNA was completed housing costs within the City of Ashland have grown at a rate much faster than that of Jackson County, and the State of Oregon as a whole. The 2002 HNA reported an average home price of $277,742, which was an increase of 50% from 1998 (MLS reported and average sale price of $187,258 at that time). At the height of the housing boom in 2007 the median price for an existing home in Ashland was $438,750; by April of 2012 the median price for an existing home was $282,500; a reduction of 36% in a five year 21 period. So while home prices rose precipitously, they fell equally so, ending with the City’s housing price at a 14 year gain of 50.9%. Owner Occupied unit values: According to the 2006-2010 ACS 5-year estimates, the Median Home price for Ashland is $408,400 while the individual median income for workers is $19,042. In order to afford a home in Ashland at the median price a household would have to earn $75,000 a year, which is well above Median Household, Median Family and Median worker’s income at $40,140, $52,940, and $19,042 respectively. In 2011 the average sales price according to the Roy Wright appraisal service, was $285,000, while this number is substantially lower than the median compiled by the census in 2010, it is still out of reach for households earning the median income in Ashland. The 2012 median household income for a family of four in the Medford/Ashland Metropolitan Statistical Area is $58,500. In order to afford a home in Ashland at the 2011 median price a household would have to earn $75,000 a year. Only 23.8% of the population reports having an income over $75,000 a year, while 50% of the ownership housing stock is targeted to this group. Conversely for a home to be affordable to a median household with an income of $58,500 a house could cost no more than $220,000. At this price there are 31 units out of 212 currently listed as available for sale within Ashland. Residential Home Sales: Recent data from the Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service (SOMLS) show that the median residential sale price of a home in Ashland has dropped considerably since the peak of the housing boom in 2007 by 36.2%; from a high of $438,750 to a low in 2012 of $282,500. The 2010 Census estimates the median home price at $408,400, which may reflect the market at a higher point when census data was collected, than the more recent SOMLS data. 21 SOMLS Home sale statistics. - 37 - CChart 4.1 ExistingHHome Saless-Ashland//JacksonCCounty 500,0000 450,0000 400,0000 350,0000 300,0000 250,0000 200,0000 150,0000 100,0000 50,0000 0 20002007720112012 Existing Home ales MedinCunty Existing Home ales SSaaooSS - 38 - Projecting Ashland’s Housing need Section III looked at housing and economic trends that effect housing demand in Ashland. Section IV evaluated the existing housing stock targeted to various demographic groups within the population. This section will assess the City’s housing stock based on the current needs and those likely to persist or arise into the future. Section I, makes the distinction between housing need and housing demand. Housing demand is housing that the market built or is likely to build in the future. Housing need is based on the broad mandate of Goal 10 that requires communities plan for housing that meets the needs of households at all income levels. This section focuses on two specific need components: housing needs by housing type and density as implied by households’ ability to afford housing, and the needs of special populations. Methodology The following analysis uses a methodology suggested by Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon’s Urban Areas produced by the Transportation and Growth Management Program (TGM). The steps outlined in that document have been followed where feasible. City staff also contracted with former State of Oregon Economist, Richard Bjelland, to update the Housing Needs Model he created for Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) and which has been used as a basis for projecting housing needs throughout the state in numerous Housing Needs Analysis. The Housing Needs Model utilized a methodology based on housing tenure, price, and housing type choices to determine housing needs, rather than a market or demand driven approach which was commonly used to define housing needs for an area. Rather than looking at historic housing production trends then projecting them forward, the Housing Needs Model looks at the age/income demographic of a study area and projects those demographic trends into the future as the market driven method will show development trends, those historic trends may not have been meeting the housing needs of the population to begin with . Where needed data obtained from the Housing Needs Model was supplemented with data obtained from a City conducted survey of property owners and an online questionnaire, and census data comparisons. Populations Projections The components of population change are births, deaths, and migration. In compiling data on population rates for the city of Ashland four main sources of data were used. The Certified population counts provided by Portland State University’s Population Research Center, the 2005- 2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2010 Census, and the coordinated population estimates through Jackson County’s Comprehensive Plan. - 39 - The primary indicator of future housing need is the projected population growth and the demographics of that population. The City’s Comprehensive Plan projects an approximate population growth rate of 0.75% per year. This equates to approximately 187 new residents per year. Tables 5.1 and 5.2 below look at population change over the past two decades and compares the differences in the population projections between the PSU population Research Center and the U.S. Census data with the Comprehensive Plan Projections. The Census data from the twenty year period is in line with the City’s comprehensive plan projections for population growth, while the PSU population counts based on the 2000 Census estimates a slightly (though not significantly larger) growth rate across the board. It is also clear from the tables below that the City of Ashland grows at a much slower rate than that of Medford or the County as a whole. If the trend continues into the next three decades then Ashland’s population should grow by approximately 6,000 and be slightly below the 28,670 projected by the County’s coordinated population estimate. Table 5.1 City 1990 2000 % Change 2010 % Change Average 1990-2000 2000-2010 Annual growth rate Ashland 16,234 19,532 20% 20,078 2.8% .79% Medford 46,951 63,154 34.5% 74,907 18.6% 1.98% Jackson County 146,389 181,269 23.8% 203,206 12.1% 1.29% U.S. Census. Historic AAGR (average annual growth rate) Table 5.2 City Estimate Census Change % Change Average July 1, 2010 April 1, 20002000-20102000-2010 Annual growth rate Ashland 21,460 19,5221,9389.9% 0.9% Medford 77,485 63,68713,79821.7% 2.2% Jackson County 207,745 181,26926,47614.6% 1.5% PSU Population Research Center data estimate based on 2000 Census Data Table 5.3 verage 1990 2000 2010 A Annual Age Groups Popula% of Popul% of PercentPopul% of Percent growth tiontotalation totalChange ation totalChange rate from 1990from 2000 pop. pop. pop. Under 19 4,775 24.5% 4,931 24.5% 3.3% 0.33% 6,184 38% 14.6% 20-24 2,314 11.9% 1,885 9.4% -18.5% -1.85% 25-34 2,174 11.1% 2,248 11.2% 3.4% 0.34% 31.5 5,126 -11.2% 35-44 % 2,378 12.2% 1,918 9.5% -19.3% -3.13% 45-54 1,545 9.5% 3,249 16.6% 110% 2,694 13.4% -17.1% 3.72% 55-64 1,146 6.9% 1,736 8.9% 51.5% 3,212 16% 85% 9.01% 65-74 1,279 7.8% 1,272 6.5% -0.5% 1,562 7.8% 22.8% 1.11% 75+ 955 5.8% 1,624 8.4% 70.4% 1,653 8.3% 1.8% 3.65% Total population 19,5220,10 16,234 100% 100% 20.3% 100% 3% 1.19% 23 U.S. Census Bureau - 40 - Age of Householder and age of projections There is a direct correlation between age of householder, income of householder and housing type. For example, an individual 35 years old to about 65 years old earning area median and above is more likely to move from rental housing to ownership housing because that individual has the means to purchase housing and the ability to maintain that housing and live independently. Similarly, households that are considered moderate income and below (80% AMI) have higher rental rates due to an inability to purchase housing despite other factors including ability to maintain that housing and to maintain an independent lifestyle. Those populations considered elderly move from homeownership to renter as they lose the ability to maintain their housing units and an independent lifestyle. As shown in table 5.3 above, the group represented by ages 25-44 in 1990 was the largest age group at 31.5%. A decade later that population counted toward the 45-55 age group, which grew in that ten year period by 110% accounting for the aging of the existing population, but also an in-migration of a substantial number of peoples in that age group. In that same period the City saw a distinct shift, from a population more evenly distributed between all age groups to a population more heavily populated by peoples in age groups of 45 years old and older. The last decade saw these age groups grow by double digits while younger age groups experienced little or even negative growth (-11.2 in the 35-44 age group). By 2010 nearly all age groups under 45 years old saw negative growth rates, with the exception of age groups under 19 years and 25 through 24. However, these age groups grew at a rate of less than one third of the overall annual average population growth, while age groups represented by 55-64 year olds grew at a rate nearly 10 times that of the general population. These projections show that the trend pointed out in the 2002 HNA still bears out; though the Ashland population is growing at a steady (albeit slow) rate, this growth is not divided evenly across all age groups. If this trend of aging households in Ashland continues into the future, housing targeting those populations 75 years old and older will need to be developed. That is housing that accommodates aging in place and ADA accommodations. The housing needs of elderly populations could also require units with less square footage and fewer bedrooms and with little to no landscape maintenance. Lastly, as householder’s age, homeownership becomes less economically advantageous and often homeowners opt to rent. Consequently the market for large single family houses on large lots could decline as the largest segments of the population ages. Theoretically, as older householders move out of existing single family units, the ownership housing freed up will serve as more affordable options for the next generations moving out of rentals and into homeownership. But if these population trends continue that may not be the case. For as those existing households age out of their current residences the population replacing them, those households 44 years and under, are showing growth rates below that of the general population and in some instances negative growth rates, which will lead to less demand for and a surplus of existing ownership units. - 41 - The population is projected to grow by 8,567 individuals over the next 30 years. The Housing Needs Model estimates that the City will need to add 2,657 new housing units to accommodate the increased populations. If the trends of the past few decades bear out, the majority of these new housing units will be targeted to older households. Housing ownership by age of householder The 2012 to 2022 Ashland School District Enrollment Forecast shows a long term trend of declining birth rates within the Ashland School district. Similarly the forecast shows a general declining population of younger households with children over the last decade and partially 22 attributes this to an inability of young families with children to afford housing in Ashland. The school district demographic report also cites low birth rates and in-migration of householders 45 years old and older as other factors which contribute to the general aging of the Ashland 23 These trends point to population and consequently the reduction in school district enrollment. an increasing percentage of ownership housing being occupied by older householders. It is clear in table 5.4 below that the two biggest factors in determining homeownership are income and age of householder. As household income increases among all age groups so too does the rate of homeownership. This is also true of age, showing older householders with the highest percentages of homeownership despite income. Table 5.4 Percentage of Homeownership by Age and Income, 2010 HNM Household Age of Head of Household Income 15-25 25-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 65-75 75+ <10K 2.9%7.9%16.0%25.0%43.0%46.1%40.0% 10<20K 3.6%12.7%25.0%37.0%47.0%61.0%56.2% 20<30K 6.0%16.6%36.0%45.0%54.0%73.2%67.1% 30<40K 7.9%23.9%48.0%53.7%60.0%74.4%70.1% 40<50K 10.8%32.9%58.1%62.4%80.0%91.0%84.0% 50<75K 22.5%49.9%72.0%82.9%88.6%92.1%91.2% 75K+32.0%75.0%83.0%92.0%96.0%97.0%93.0% Household Income The Oregon Housing Needs Model Methodology states that “household income is the key variable in determining the affordability component of housing need and is strongly correlated with housing tenure”. The Housing Needs Model estimates that there is currently a significant gap of housing units at price ranges affordable those with the lowest incomes and surplus of housing units affordable to those making above the area median income. Households who experience cost burden are more vulnerable and at a higher risk of homelessness. As seen in 22 Ashland School District. Ashland School district Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2018-19. Portland State University Populations Research Center. December 2008, page 1. 23 Ashland School District. Ashland School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22. page 12. - 42 - tables 5.4 and 5.5 age and income are the two biggest factors in housing choice. Table 5.4 above shows the relationship between age and income on homeownership rates; homeownership rates rise with increasing income and as householder’s age. Whereas the relationship of age and income to rental units is the converse; as incomes and ages rise rental rates decrease. Table 5.5 Percentage of Renters by Age and Income, 2010 HNM Household Age of Head of Household Income 15-25 25-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 65-75 75+ <10K 97.1%92.1%84.0%75.0%57.0%53.9%60.0% 10<20K 96.4%87.3%75.0%63.0%53.0%39.0%43.8% 20<30K 94.0%83.4%64.0%55.0%46.0%26.8%32.9% 30<40K 92.1%76.1%52.0%46.3%40.0%25.6%29.9% 40<50K 89.2%67.1%41.9%37.6%20.0%9.0%16.0% 50<75K 77.5%50.1%28.0%17.1%11.4%7.9%8.8% 75K+68.0%25.0%17.0%8.0%4.0%3.0%7.0% Income Projections Household income is difficult to predict. Based on past trends, incomes are expected to increase (Median Household Income increased by 22.9% over the past decade). Poverty Status In 2000 12.5% of Ashland families, and 19.6% of all individuals lived below the federal poverty level. By 2010 those numbers have declined slightly to 11.5% and 18.8% respectively. Household Size and composition Household size within the City of Ashland has been decreasing slowly over the past two decades. Currently the average household size is estimated to be 2.08 persons per unit for owner-occupied households and 2.06 for renter households. The 2000 census estimated the average household size of owner-occupied units to be 2.30 and for renter occupied units to be 1.98. The average estimated household size for all housing types was 2.14. The Housing needs model uses a current household size of 2.119 and for forecasting purposes uses the same estimate. The 2007 RNA conducted property interviews with five property managers and from that information and the information gathered from a needs analysis conducted concurrently, Ferrarini and Associates determined that the greatest need in Ashland at that time was for the development of more studio apartments followed by a need for a relatively modest number of one bedroom and three bedroom units. The analysis also showed that there was an oversupply of 24 two-bedroom rental units. The following table is from that report and illustrates their findings. 24 City of Ashland Rental Needs Analysis. Ferrarini & Associates, Inc 2007. - 43 - Table 5.6 City of Ashland Rental Housing Need by Unit Type RNA 2007 Type Demand Supply Net Need Studio 1,039 392 647 1 Bedroom 1,290 1,188 102 2 Bedroom 872 1,676 (804) 3+ Bedroom 900 846 54 Total 4,102 4,102 0 25 Source: US Census and Ferrarini & Associates An updated analysis of household size and type found much the same thing. There is a definite lack of studio units for the growing percentage of 1-person households among both renter and owner-occupied households, both of which grew at two and three times the rate respectively of the total populations of all renter and owner households. This could be attributed to three factors; the disproportionate growth of older households, a nearly 50% reduction in the number of 1-room dwelling units between 2000 and 2010, and the disparate increase in one and two person households. One factor that is estimated to have a substantial impact on the housing market is the steep decline of all owner occupied households larger than two individuals. These findings were further substantiated in the property owner and manager questionnaires sent out by the City in early 2012 which showed that studios were most in demand, while two bedrooms were in least demand. Table 5.7 Housing Units by Room Size Rooms 2000 % 2000 2010 %2010 % Change 1 Room 493 5.4% 247 2.4% -49.9% 2 Room 692 7.6% 515 5.0% -25.6% 3 Room 870 9.6% 1,252 12.2% 43.9% 4 Room 1,856 20.5% 2,043 20.0% 10.1% 5 Room 1,822 20.1% 2,168 21.2% 19% 6 Room 1,498 16.5% 1,601 15.7% 6.9% 7 Room 827 9.1% 1,387 13.6% 67.7% 8 Room 624 6.9% 521 5.1% -16.5% 9 or More 389 4.3% 469 4.8% 20.6% U.S. Census Bureau 25 Ibid. - 44 - Table 5.8 Owner Occupied Units by Household Size HH Size 2000 2000% 2010 2010% % Change Total 4,456 100 4,856 100% 9% 1-person 1,117 25.1% 1,460 30.1% 30.7% 2-person 1,946 43.7% 2,212 45.6% 13.7% 3-person 647 14.5% 623 12.8% -3.7% 4-person 532 11.9% 412 8.5% -22.6% 5-person 157 3.5% 103 2.1% -34.4% 6-person 45 1.0% 34 .7% -24.4% 7 or more 12 0.3% 12 .2% 0% U.S. Census Bureau Table 5.9 Renter Occupied housing by household size HH Size 2000 2000% 2010 2010% % Change Total 4,081 100% 4,553 100% 11.6% 1-person 1,722 42.2 2,086 45.8% 21.1% 2-person 1,361 33.3% 1,336 29.3% -1.8% 3-person 594 14.6% 646 14.2% 8.8% 4-person 262 6.4% 305 6.7% 16.4% 5-person 90 2.2% 118 2.6% 31.1% 6-person 33 .8% 41 .9% 24.2% 7 or more 19 0.5% 21 0.5 10.5% U.S. Census Bureau Table 5.10 Estimate of Rental Units Needed by Household Size and Type 26 Needs Analysis No. of HH Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3+ Bedroom 1-person 2,086 1,252 834 2-person 1,336 601 601 134 3-person 646 291 355 4-person 305 31 274 5-person 118 118 6-person 41 41 7-person 21 21 Demand 4,553 1,252 1,435 923 943 Supply 255 1,506 3,647 4,822 Surplus/Deficit (997) 71 2,724 3,879 U.S. Census Bureau 26 Estimated household preferences based on percentages from the 2007 RNA-derived from Riley Research community survey. (60%-studio, 40% & 45%-1bdrm, 45%,40% & 10%-2bdrm, 10%,60%,90%&100%-3+bdrm) - 45 - This section concludes with a baseline forecast of housing demand. The baseline forecast represents our best estimate of how the market will perform over the next twenty years. The forecast assumes no changes in current City policy. In summary it is intended to provide a rough estimate of what the housing market will build in Ashland over the next twenty years. The forecast relies on the County’s coordinated population forecast as its foundation but also utilizes assumptions about average household size, persons in group quarters, and housing trends from a variety of sources including prior years census information and the Housing Needs Model. Table 6.1 Table 6.1-Baseline forecast of Housing Demand 2010-2040 Variable Value Current Future Change Population 20,07828,6708,492 Persons in Group Quarters 9611,450489 Occupied DU 9,40912,9623,553 Single Family Dwelling Units 27 Percent Single Family DU 71.9%73.9% Number of Single Family DU 7,3569,5912,235 28 Persons in single family HH 14,93320,1415,208 Aggregate Vacancy Rate 2.5% 2,235 Total New Single Family needed Multiple Family Dwelling Units Percent Multi-Family DU 26.6%25.5% 29 Number of Multiple-family DU 2,7203,311591 Persons in Multiple-Family HH 5,5226,9851,463 Aggregate Vacancy Rate 2.5% 591 New Multiple-Family DU Totals Total occupied dwelling units - Aggregate HH size 2.032.1 Vacant dwelling units - 583 Total new Dwelling units needed -2,657 Dwelling units needed annually 88.6 27 Future projections based on 2009ACS units by tenure and HNA Template 2-projected future housing status as of 2040. 28 Persons in household is calculated using aggregate household size per 2006-2010 ACS, the occupancy of the unit is not determined to be either rental or ownership households. 29 Same as above. - 46 - Table 6.1 is a baseline forecast of housing demand. That is to say that the table extrapolates the housing mix that would occur in the future based on past trends and market demand. The forecast utilizes data from two sources; the 2010 Housing Needs Model (which uses the county coordinated population projection) estimates for housing occupancy, household size, and vacancy rate, and the 2007-2009 American Community Survey estimates of total population in occupied housing units by tenure by units in structure (see appendix). This projection is solely based on housing demand and past trends, and predicts what the housing market demand would provide in the next 20 year period. However, housing market demand does not correlate to the housing needs of the community, as can be seen from the table. The housing market would continue to provide a surplus of single family housing units further intensifying the need for multi-family housing and housing that is affordable to the majority of Ashland’s residents. To base the housing needs of future populations upon historic trends would be to continue the inequities of the past into the future, and that is not the goal of this needs analysis. Instead, the needs analysis will use this baseline forecast to show how development trends within the city should be modified in order to meet the needs of the population rather than the demands of the private market. Housing needs by type and density We begin our analysis of housing need by reviewing the housing needs identified in the City’s 2002 HNA. The results show some profound differences between identified need by type and permits issued by type. The number of single-family permits issued in the decade between the last HNA and this current effort shows that the number of Single Family units continues to be developed at a rate nearly double that of multi-family. The 2002 study identified needed housing for the 20-year period between 2000 and 2020. At this point, the City is one-fifth of the way through that planning period. While some differences between identified need and what housing has been built can be explained by the cyclical nature of the housing market, particularly in multiple family housing, the development of the most needed housing types, low-cost ownership and government assisted and affordable rentals, lack the funding and support to develop at the levels that the community needs. These trends will continue, as long as the private market is driven by profit and the federal budget for affordable housing continues to be reduced.In Summary, the City is continuing to fall short of providing needed housing types as identified in earlier studies. The baseline forecast however, is a forecast of housing demand. Other data presented in Section III, suggest that the market is not meeting the housing needs of many Ashland residents and workers. The continued disparity in the increase in housing costs compared to the increase in wages has aggravated the problem. Moreover, even if housing prices increase at a slower rate, the types of jobs forecast to grow in Ashland will not allow workers to afford housing. In - 47 - summary, the financial need is substantial and a large deficit of lower cost units exists several points should be kept in mind when interpreting this data: Because all of the affordability guidelines are based on median family income, the percentage of households meeting the income criteria are comparable in all jurisdictions. For example, 36% of households earn 80% of the area median income. Thus, the income guidelines provide a rough estimate of financial need and may mask other barriers to affordable housing such as move-in costs, competition for housing from higher income households, and availability of suitable units. The ratios applied in the HUD income guidelines are defined such that somewhere around 40% of households will always be considered low income. Ashland will add more than 8,492 households between 2010 and 2040. Assuming 36% of these new households are considered low-income by HUD, about 3,057 of these new households will be low-income. Table 6.2 Rental Units needed by Type Type Demand Supply Net Need/Surplus Studio 1,252 255 -997 1-Bedroom 1,435 1506 71 2-Bedroom 923 3647 2,724 3+ Bedroom 943 4,822 3,879 Housing Affordability The standard measure of affordability as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is when the cost of rent and utilities (gross rent) is less than 30% of income. When gross rent levels exceed 30% of income, particularly by a large percentage, it places a significant burden on household finances. Householders who pay more than 30% of their income toward housing costs are called “Cost burdened”. Householders who pay more than 50% of their income toward housing costs are called “severely cost burdened”. When households are housing “cost burdened” their ability to pay for the other necessities of life are compromised. Historically a large percentage of renters in Ashland expend more than 30% of their income on housing costs. The 2009-2010 American Community Survey data showed that 63% of renters in Ashland were cost burdened, of the 4,313 renter households in Ashland 2,714 pay more than 30% of their income toward housing costs. This is a 10% increase in the number of renters who - 48 - were identified as housing cost burdened by the 2000 Census at 56%. The Housing Needs Model estimates that the City needs 1,163 units targeting those with those lowest incomes, with rents below $195 a month, 1,166 units with rents between $195-422, and 243 units with rents between $423-655. It is expected that the City will have a surplus of all units with rents at $656 and above. The Housing Needs Model shows that the majority of the rental units will need to be targeted to those households earning 50% AMI and below. (See appendix) Homeowners experience less cost burden than renters, but there continues to be a deficit of housing for moderate to above median income households and a surplus of units targeting those earning $75,000 a year and above, which is less than 25% of the population. The Housing Needs Model estimates that the City will need; 402 housing units available under $72.3k, 950 units with sale prices between $72.3k-110.1k, 916 units with sale prices between $110.1k-147.6k, 745 units with sale prices between $147.6k-185.3k, and 1,594 units with sale prices between $185.3k- 279.3k. The majority of the ownership units will be targeted to those making the area median income to 120% of the AMI. The model assumes a surplus of units priced at $279.3k and above. (See appendix) Housing Density Figure 6.1on page 50, show housing density in terms of units per acre mapped by census block. The City is comprised primarily of land zoned for single family dwelling units. Due to the high cost of land in the City of Ashland, most developments maximize the allowable density. One exception is land zoned for multi-family development. Thought there is more land zoned for single family development, land zoned for multi-family developments is often developed as single family attached due to market forces, high end multi-family developments such as condominiums and townhouses are more economically attractive to private market developers looking to maximize density and profits. This has made it difficult for non-profit and for-profit developers to construct affordable and market rate multi-family rental complexes which were shown to be the housing type most in demand by the 2007 RNA. Similarly many of the existing affordable and market rate units are HUD expiring use properties, once the HUD contract has expired the rental units can convert to market rate rentals or be condo minimized. - 49 - Figure 6.1 The findings of the Housing Needs Model and an analysis of income and housing cost indicate that: A median family household cannot afford to purchase a home in Ashland. The largest dwelling unit gap exists for households earning less than $10,000 annually. The city needs approximately 803 additional units costing less than $200 per month. These units fall in the category of government assisted housing. Only 232 owner-occupied units in Ashland are valued, under $110,000 or about 4.5% of all owner occupied units. The small number of owner-occupied units valued under $110,000 limits ownership options in Ashland for households earning less than $40,000 annually. In summary, our evaluation of housing mix, density, and affordability suggests that the City continues to struggle with issues of affordability and needs to plan for a larger share of multiple family housing, and for a greater number of single family housing types on smaller lots. Housing tenure remained fairly constant at 52% and 48% respectively for owners and renters, though the ownership rate for Ashland is lower than that of the surrounding areas it is similar to other communities which contain universities. - 50 - Figure 6.2 Owner Occupied units by affordability 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 <72.372.3<110.1K110.1K<147.6147.6<185.3k185.3k<279.3k279.3k OwnershipUnitsExistingOwnershipUnitsNeeded Figure 6.3 Rental Units needed by affordability - 51 - 1200 1000 800 of Units Number 600 400 200 0 019419542242365565689789811321133+ RentalAmountinDollars ExistingRentalUnitsNeededRentalUnits Housing needs of special populations Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) identify several “special populations” that have housing needs distinctly different than the general population. These include the frail and elderly, farm workers, peoples with disabilities, persons recently released from state institutions, and persons infected with the HIV virus, among others. The housing needs of these special populations are highly dependent on individual circumstances. It is not uncommon for the same individual to be classified into two or more of the categories. As such, it is very difficult to develop an estimate of the number and type of housing units needed to accommodate these special populations. In this section we estimate the number of persons with such disabilities and provide projections based on data provided by the 2010 Needs Analysis Priorities for Special Needs Populations compiled by OHCS. Senior housing The 2010 Needs Analysis Priorities for Special Needs Populations completed by OHCS to prioritize funding for new affordable housing units throughout the state looks at the number of housing units available to and the population of various special needs households by County. The OHCS Needs Analysis Priorities for senior housing is detailed in Table 6.3 below. Table 6.3 Senior Housing vs. Population (Jackson County) Special Needs population Existing Units Population % of Housing Housing Available Available Gap Elderly 1,119 8,047 13.9% 6,928 Frail Elderly 8 919 0.9% 911 - 52 - Section IV-Ashland’s Housing Inventory, details the number of existing retirement and assisted living units within the City. The 2010 Housing Needs Model estimates that a total of 257 new units will need to be added to the City’s existing stock to house populations’ ages 65 years old and older. Of those units 83 rentals and 174 ownership units will be needed to accommodate the housing needs of seniors. Special needs housing The 2010 Needs Analysis Priorities for Special Needs Populations completed by Oregon Housing and Community Services to prioritize funding for new affordable housing units throughout the state looks at the number of housing units available to various special needs households by County. The OHCS Needs Analysis Priorities for Special Needs Populations estimates that that there are very few housing units currently in existence throughout the county for the majority of the people who could be categorized as having special needs. See table 6.4 below for details. Table 6.4 Special Needs Housing vs. Population (Jackson County) Special Needs Population Existing Units Population % of Housing Housing Available Available Gap Alcohol & Drug Rehab 54 4,440 1.2% 4,386 Chronically Mentally Ill 47 2.842 1.7% 2,795 Developmental Disability 44 794 5.5% 750 Domestic Violence 33 170 19.3% 137 Farm workers 77 3,735 2.1% 3,658 HIV/AIDS 4 136 2.9% 132 Physically Disabled 44 497 8.9% 453 Released Offenders 0 194 0.0% 194 As seen in the table above there is currently a significant housing gap to serve special needs populations. If a proportionate percentage of the population were to be extrapolated forward to the 2040 population projection for the County, peoples with special needs would be an estimated 6.3% of the County’s population or 11,031 people. As the population increases it is evident that the number of housing units available to serve populations with special needs will continue to fall far short of the need for such housing unless a concerted effort to develop housing is encouraged. Housing Stock available to persons with Disabilities Census data reports that 2,379 people five years old and older with disabilities resided in Ashland in 2000. Peoples with Disabilities made up 12.8% of the population at that time. The 2010 Census and the 5-year American Community Survey estimates do not provide updated information about peoples with disabilities. However, as the City of Ashland has a greater percentage of the population which is 50 years old or older it can be expected that as the - 53 - population ages housing that meets the changing needs of the population will need to be provided. Currently the extent of housing stock available to peoples with disabilities is not known. However four complexes representing 148 units designated for seniors and peoples with disabilities are listed on the preservation property list which are in danger of expiring as dedicated affordable housing for seniors and peoples with disabilities. Housing Stock available to persons with HIV/AIDS Information on the housing stock available for persons with HIV/AIDS is currently unavailable for the Medford/Ashland MSA. State of Oregon department of health services records show that 30 there are 149 people with HIV/AIDS living in Jackson County. The number of people with HIV/AIDS living within the City of Ashland is not known. Consequently, the City does not prioritize or track the development of housing stock available to persons with HIV/AIDS. Homeless Needs It is estimated that in 2008, 1 in every two hundred people in the state of Oregon was homeless. Data from the Point in Time homeless Count conducted across the State of Oregon and throughout the U.S. in January 2008 showed that Oregon has the highest concentration of homeless people of any state at .54 percent or 20,653. The 2011 Point in Time homeless count for Jackson County totaled 1,049 people. Totals are not broken out per jurisdiction but are for the entire Continuum of Care region. Of the 1,049 respondents 39% identified themselves as chronically homeless (continuously homeless for a year or more or had at least four episodes of homelessness in the past three years), 48%, or 502 respondents were families with children. The majority of the respondents 26% cited “couldn’t afford rent” at the reason for leaving their last living arrangement. Ashland School District An article published in the Ashland Daily Tidings reported on a rise in poverty in rural areas. Specifically, the article cited dramatically increased poverty rates among children in areas deeply 31 affected by the recession including Medford and Ashland. The Ashland School District reported that for the 2010-2011 school year 84 children currently attending school within the district report being homeless. This number is up from 62 the previous year. Figure 5 30 State of Oregon, Department of Health Services Website: http://www.oregon.gov/DHS/ph/hiv/data/docs/Livingcounty.xls 31 Hammond, Betsy. “Rural Students most likely to live in poverty Some Southern Oregon districts see high rates.” Ashland Daily Tidings 01 Dec. 2009. - 54 - 20011 One-Nigght Homeless Countt for Jackson Countyy Single Addult Men One Pareent Family Wiith Children Couplewwithout childreen Two pareent Family witth Children Unaccommpanied Youthh (17 or undeer) Other OregonHHousing andd Communityy Services reeceive federaal and state rresources to be used to supportsservices for hhomeless poopulations.TThey includee: Emergency Housing AAccount, Emergenncy Shelter ggrants, State Homeless AAssistance Prrogram, Shellter Plus Carre, and Supplemmental Assistaance for Faccilities to Asssist Homelesss. Additionnally, under tthe Federal Continuuum of Care pprogram admministered byy HUD, locaal governmennts and agenncies can appply for federaal funding foor programs and servicess to prevent and combat homelessneess. The Jackkson CountyCContinuum oof Care has bbeen the reciipient of McKKinney Vennto funds sincce 2000. Thhe City of AAshland doess not directlyy receive anyy funds to asssist homelesss persons orr persons at risk of becomming homelesss, and theree is no longer a local orgganization that provides sservices to homelesss populations; however CCity of Ashland residentts can accesss available seervices, programss and funds tthrough ACCCESS, Inc. tthe regional Communityy Action Ageency that serrves Jacksonaand Josephinne Counties. Similarly, many non-pprofit agenciees that proviide housing oor supportsservices for hhomeless poopulations are eligible to apply for fuunds throughh OHCS or throughtthe Jackson CCounty Conntinuum of CCare. In 2007, Interfaith Caare Communnity of Ashlaand (ICCA),, the sole proovider of hommeless serviices locatedwwithin the Ciity of Ashlannd, closed itss Ashland loocation and cconsolidatedits operationns to that agenncy’s Medforrd office. Siince the losss of ICCA thhe City passeed an ordinannce to set upp an emergenccy shelter inn times of incclement weaather. Severaal local faith based organnizations andd Peace Hoouse, a local non-profit,offer weeklyy hot meals, showers, annd occasionaally a place too sleep. Thhough there are limited llocal housing resources for the City’’s homeless populations,, there are several orgaanizations thhat provide eemergency shhelter, transiitional housiing, and otheer resourcess and supporrtive services for homeleess individuaals in Medfoord, but manyy of the Cityy’s homelesss lack the ressources for oor have transsportation to get to thosee providers inn Medford wwhich is 19 miles away. - 55 - Rental units at price ranges affordable to those with the lowest incomes (>$10,000 a year) would serve to reduce homelessness. The 2010 Housing Needs Model shows this population has the greatest need for housing. It is known that households who experience cost burden, those who pay a disproportionate percentage of wages toward housing costs, are the most vulnerable, and have an increased risk for falling into homelessness. Similarly, individuals and families transitioning from homelessness often have little or no ability to pay housing costs. These individuals and families need housing that is either subsidized or extremely affordable in able to work toward stabilization and self-sufficiency. - 56 - Housing Distribution Strategy In order to meet housing needs of the community over the planning period (Through the year 2040), some modification in the current distribution of housing that is being developed by the demand driven market will be required. The proposed modification is shown in Table 7.1 below. Table 7.1 Housing Type Distribution Housing Type TotalEstimate FutureFinal Target Current Needed Housing of Existing Needed/Distribution of Approx.Distribution to 32 UnitsUnits Gap Housing by Distribution meet future 33 Needed Type in 2040 by Typeunit need in 2040 Single Family 8,913 7,356 1,557 65.80% 80.26% 45.50% Manufactured 325 154 171 2.40% - 5.0% DU in Park Duplex Units 420 526 -106 3.10% 2.63% N/A Tri-Quad Units 569 530 39 4.20% 3.12% 1.1% 5+ Multi-Family 3,319 1,655 1,655 24.50% 13.99% 48.4% Total 13,545 10,230 3,315 100% 100% 100% This distribution modification is further exemplified by the 2010 Housing Needs Model outputs for unit type based on income and affordability. Based on Census data for income, the City needs many more low cost rental units, which are often multi-family units and government assisted housing units whether through tax-credits, loans, or subsidies in the form of project based or portable housing vouchers. The City has a deficit of ownership units below $279k. The Housing Needs Model shows a total deficit of 2,719 ownership units affordable to people making below $75,000 annually. In order to achieve the desired distribution by 2040, the City will need to modify the development mix in favor of multi-family units over that of predominantly single family units which has historically prevailed. The City will need to substantially increase its stock of multi- family units in order to meet the desired distribution by 2040, skewing the development of such units beyond parity with the development of single family units to close the gap. 32 From 2006-2010 American Community Survey. 33 Number derived from Census Building Permit Data 2000-2011. See Appendix for details. - 57 - Table 7.2 Estimate of Income and Affordability - Housing Needs Model 2010 Rentals/monthly rent Number of Existing Units Current Needed Units Current Surplus/Gap 0-$194 152955 -805 $195-422 2831,052 -769 $423-655 1,052940 112 $656-897 1,401480 922 $898-1132 830557 273 $1133+ 1,258283 975 Total 4,9764,266 710 Ownership Unit Values <$72.3k 150401 -251 $72.3k<110.1k 82749 -667 $110.1k<147.6k 18665 -648 $147.6<185.3k 160656 -497 $185.3k<279.3k 6761332 -656 $279.3k+ 40041750 2255 50895552 -463 Total Units Challenges and Recommendations Challenges To the degree the 2010 Housing Needs Model projections are accurate representations of Ashland’s future housing needs, then City may be faced with the following challenges over the next 20 years: How and where to zone and “protect” land for affordable rental and ownership housing as well as multiple-family housing at all levels. How to encourage developers to build what Ashland needs (by price/affordability), rather than the products they are comfortable building or which yield the greatest profit. How to continue to create and sustain Ashland’s great neighborhoods. House to create a variety of housing types and incomes in neighborhoods. How to encourage effective partnerships to increase funding for low-income housing and provide responsive, coordinated and effective housing choices and service. Goals To provide for the needs of the expected population growth in Ashland over the next 20 years and maintain a diversity of income, cultural, and age groups in Ashland’s population, consistent with other plan goals. - 58 - Objectives Strive to maintain a diversity of population groups in Ashland, especially if increased growth pressure leads to more expensive housing. Concentrate on population groups that are important to Ashland’s character, such as students, artists and actors, employees of the city, school district, and college, service personnel who work in the tourism industry, hourly wage earners in local industries, and local residents who have not retired and live on fixed income. (Ashland Comprehensive Plan) Increase owner-occupied households to comparable levels with county and state ownership averages. Recommendations The City needs to look ways to encourage; Rental housing at rates affordable to low to moderate income households, Ownership housing opportunities that are targeted to the 76% of the population that earns less than $75,000 a year, More housing types targeted to seniors and peoples with disabilities, More studios and one bedroom units, More multi-family housing types, Manufactured housing in parks and on single family lots. Challenges To ensure a variety of dwelling types and provide housing opportunities for the total cross- section of Ashland’s population, consistent with preserving the character and appearance of the city. (Ashland Comprehensive Plan) Objectives Conserve land and reduce the impact of land prices on housing to the maximum extent possible. Recommendations Encourage the development of vacant available lots within the urban area, Consider mixed uses wherever they will not disrupt an existing residential area, Support efforts for rehabilitation and preservation of existing housing and neighborhoods, Consider allowing and encouraging accessory apartments in new and existing, neighborhoods as an outright permitted activity in single family zones, Consider restricting the development of detached single family residential units in multi- family zones. - 59 - Challenges The local economy does not provide wages that are commensurate with housing costs. 49% of homeowners with mortgages, 14% of homeowners without mortgages, and 63% of renter households spent more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Objectives In order to provide for the long-term self-sufficiency of Ashland’s low- and moderate-income households, the issue of affordable housing must be addressed in a comprehensive manner. In addition to the land use related actions already identified, the following actions may help meet the objectives of decreasing the percentage of households who experience cost burden. Recommendations Provide more economic opportunities for Ashland residents by improving the local economy and attracting more “family wage” jobs, Support efforts of affordable housing providers, including; the Housing Authority of Jackson County, Rogue Valley Habitat for Humanity, Access, Inc. Ashland Community Land Trust, and Umpqua Community Development Corporation. To provide affordable housing, financial assistance, and services to Ashland low and moderate income, elderly, and special needs households, Dedicate Community Development Block Grant funds as projects and needs arise, Work with employers to better understand the demographics and housing preferences of their workforce. Conclusion The identification of a set of land use policies that will lead to the development of more affordable housing while achieving other community goals is difficult at best. Ashland however, is not the only community in Oregon, or the United states that is facing housing affordability problems. A considerable body of literature exists on land use policy and affordable housing that summarizes approaches that communities have used to address the housing affordability issue. In general, communities should review policies to ensure that (1) they do not create barriers or exclude to any housing types, and (2) they reduce the cost of housing. Below is a brief summary of some of the policy approaches that communities can consider to address housing affordability. Remove Barriers: Barriers to construction of needed housing or efficient use of land are those that public policy has imposed. A jurisdiction would select measures in this category if it has evidence that the market wants to build needed housing types or densities but is kept from doing so by public policies. The City should review policies to weed out ineffective - 60 - policies, obsolete design standards unnecessarily burdensome permitting processes and inadequate or inappropriate zoning. Provide Incentives: Incentives are measures that increase the likelihood that developers will provide needed housing or use land efficiently as a result of reduced costs. A community would select measures in this category, if it has evidence that the market might be willing to build a certain type or density of housing, but there is uncertainty about the success in the market place and/or current economic conditions for such development are less than optimal. Explore cost reducing measures including costs of public services and facilities, development fees, and other processing costs. An example of a less commonly considered incentive includes working with neighborhood groups to address concerns. If successful, this can reduce costs of lengthy appeals to the developer. Require Performance: These measures are mandatory plan policies and code requirements affecting development. A jurisdiction would select measures in this category if it has evidence that the market is not likely to respond, at the level of incentive that a community can provide. The public sector is not directly producing the housing. Therefore, estimates of the likely effect of these measures should be qualified by some uncertainty about exactly how the private sector will respond. For example, if higher density requirements or mandatory design standards are perceived by the development community (designers, builders, lenders as unprofitable or unmarketable, the desired housing may not get built in the community. In the case of up-zoning for higher densities, this may result in no housing development instead of housing at lower densities. For this reason, jurisdictions should seek a balance in adopting regulations and try to redirect, not stifle market forces that produce most of a community’s housing. In many cases, requirements should be applied uniformly on all developments so that no particular development gains a competitive advantage. This will encourage developers to find ways to produce the product within market constraints. Review development standards? Lot size typically impacts the price of lots, the size of housing units allowed and the overall price of housing units. Evaluate minimum lot sizes and setbacks, maximum heights and lot coverage of all zones. Evaluate compatibility standards, particularly for multiple-family developments and infill sites. Evaluate incentives for the development of smaller units. - 61 - Appendix - 62 - Table A-1 Housing demand /capacity comparison by unit type SFRMultifamilyTotals Existing Dwelling Unit Capacity (2010 BLI) 146913842853 Needed Units per Housing Gap Analysis 17593316 1557 through 2040 Deficit by 2040 -88 -375 -463 Annual units needed through 2040 62.8118.4 55.6 Total Year Supply 26.422.024.1 - 63 - Table A-2 Future Needed Unit Distributed by Comprehensive Plan Designation Dwelling Units by Type Existing Netdistributed into existing ComprehensiveDwelling Unit Buildablecapacity PlanCapacity Acres (2011 BLI) SFRMulti-family Per Airport Airport 0 0 0 Master Plan Commercial 15.8 252 0 252 Croman Mill 62.8 340 0 340 Downtown 2 53 0 53 Employment 105.1 221 0 221 HC 1.4 15 0 15 HDR 8.9 162 0 162 Industrial 12.1 0 0 0 LDR 38.1 70 70 0 MFR 30.8 323 0 323 NM 17.7 118 100 18 SFR 214 875 875 0 SFRR 48 103 103 0 SOU 19.5 SOU Master Plan 0 0 Suburban R 42.3 311 311 0 Woodland 4.3 10 10 0 Totals 622.8 2853 1469 1384 Expected Dwelling Units Note: on Commercial and Employment Lands have been reduced by 50% from what would be permitted as such units are not required. - 64 - Table A- 3a Housing Units by Type 2002-2011 Data Derived from City Database (EDEN) Year Permit Issued Group Mixed Use – Multi-Accessory New Homes aboveFamilyResidential Condominium commercial Units Units (not including mixed use) 2002 3---30 (SOU) 2003 2--- 2004 2--- 2005 426 68 2006 22 5448 2007 13 227 2008 9280 2009 0110 2010 060 40 2011 209 (SOU) 3 Total 58 96 27 63 239 Table A-3b Units per Year by Type 2002-2011 Data on single family and multi-family development derived from Census data YearSingleMulti-Accessory Condominium Group Homes Manufactured PermitFamilyFamilyResidential Conversions Homes Issued Units 2002 99 9 - - 30 (SOU) 1 2003 125 64 - 14 0 2004 103 55 - 4 0 2005 128 43 6 22 0 2006 47 57 4 34 0 2007 52 11 2 8 0 1 2008 20 12 8 10 0 0 2009 25 1 1 0 0 0 2010 34 10 4 0 0 2011 24 6 2 0 209 (SOU) Total 657 268 27 92 209 2 - 65 - Table A-4 Comprehensive Plan# of ParcelsNet Buildable Acres Airport 9 Per Airport Master Plan Commercial 52 15.8 Croman Mill 31 62.8 Downtown 17 2 Employment 114 105.1 HC 10 1.4 HDR 48 8.9 Industrial 6 12.1 LDR 83 38.1 MFR 115 30.8 NM 77 17.7 SFR 552 214 SFRR 27 48 SOU 19 19.5 Suburban R 50 42.3 Woodland 30 4.3 Totals 1240622.8 Source: Table 3.3 from the BLI: Buildable acres: UGB & City Limits - 66 - Table A5 Ashland’s largest employers Business # of Employees % of Population Southern Oregon University Approx. 750 3.6% Ashland Community Hospital 410 1.9% Oregon Shakespeare Festival 398 1.9% Ashland Public Schools 350 1.6% City of Ashland 229 1.1% Butler Ford Approx. 160 0.7% Pathway Enterprises, Inc. 130-150 0.6% Ashland Food Co-Op 130 0.6% Pro Tool Approx. 100 0.4% Linda Vista Approx. 75 0.3% Albertsons 72 0.3% Plexis Approx 70 0.3% Safeway 65 0.3% Town and Country Chevrolet 50 0.2% Cropper Medical 50 0.2% Bi-Mart 45 0.2% Source: City of Ashland, Chamber of Commerce website: www.ashlandchamber.com. - 67 - Table A6 Population Projections - 68 - ORDINANCE NO. _________ _ AN ORDINANCE AMENDING THE CITY OF ASHLAND COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TO ADOPT THE HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS AS A SUPPORTING DOCUMENT TO THE CITY OF ASHLAND COMPREHENSIVE PLAN additions Annotated to show deletions and to the code sections being modified. boldlined throughbold underline Deletions are and additions are in . WHEREAS , Article 2. Section 1 of the Ashland City Charter provides: Powers of the City The City shall have all powers which the constitutions, statutes, and common law of the United States and of this State expressly or impliedly grant or allow municipalities, as fully as though this Charter specifically enumerated each of those powers, as well as all powers not inconsistent with the foregoing; and, in addition thereto, shall possess all powers hereinafter specifically granted. All the authority thereof shall have perpetual succession. WHEREAS, the above referenced grant of power has been interpreted as affording all legislative powers home rule constitutional provisions reserved to Oregon Cities. City of Beaverton v. International Ass’n of Firefighters, Local 1660, Beaverton Shop 20 Or. App. 293; 531 P 2d 730, 734 (1975); and WHEREAS, the Ashland Comprehensive Plan contains policies regarding the availability of adequate numbers of housing units at price ranges and rent levels which are commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households WHEREAS, the Housing Needs Analysis (2012) reflects the projected housing need in comparison to the supply of developable land within the Ashland City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary based upon specific land classification and constraints to development according to the Buildable Lands Inventory adopted in 2011. WHEREAS, the City of Ashland Planning Commission considered the above-referenced recommended amendments to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan at a duly advertised public hearing on October 9, 2012 and, following deliberations, recommended approval of the amendments;and WHEREAS , the City Council of the City of Ashland conducted a duly advertised public hearing on the above-referenced amendments on November 6, 2012; and WHEREAS , the City Council of the City of Ashland, following the close of the public hearing and record, deliberated and conducted first and second readings approving adoption of the Ordinance in accordance with Article 10 of the Ashland City Charter; and WHEREAS , the City Council of the City of Ashland has determined that in order to protect and benefit the health, safety and welfare of existing and future residents of the City, it is necessary to amend the Ashland Comprehensive Plan in manner proposed, that an adequate factual base exists for the amendments, the amendments are consistent with the comprehensive plan and that such amendments are fully supported by the record of this proceeding. THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF ASHLAND DO ORDAIN AS FOLLOWS: SECTION 1. The above recitations are true and correct and are incorporated herein by this reference. SECTION 2. The City of Ashland Comprehensive Plan Appendix entitled “Technical Reports and Supporting Documents” is attached hereto and made a part hereof as Exhibit B. Previously added support documents are acknowledged on this Appendix. SECTION 3. The document entitled “The City of Ashland Housing Needs Analysis, (2012),” attached hereto as Exhibit A, and made a part hereof by this reference is hereby added to the above-referenced Appendix to support Chapter VI, \[HOUSING ELEMENT\] the Comprehensive Plan. . SECTION 4. The document entitled “The City of Ashland Housing Needs Analysis,” may be updated by Resolution of the City Council to account for population and demographic changes, consumption of buildable land by development, and re- development, as reflected in Census data and in the issuance of Building Permits by the City. SECTION 5 Severability. . The sections, subsections, paragraphs and clauses of this ordinance are severable. The invalidity of one section, subsection, paragraph, or clause shall not affect the validity of the remaining sections, subsections, paragraphs and clauses. SECTION 6Codification. .Provisions of this Ordinance shall be incorporated in the City Comprehensive Plan and the word “ordinance” may be changed to “code”, “article”, “section”, or another word, and the sections of this Ordinance may be renumbered, or re-lettered, provided however that any Whereas clauses and boilerplate provisions (i.e. Sections 1, 5-6) need not be codified and the City Recorder is authorized to correct any cross-references and any typographical errors. The foregoing ordinance was first read by title only in accordance with Article X, Section 2(C) of the City Charter on the _____ day of ________________, 2012, and duly PASSED and ADOPTED this _____ day of ________________, 2012. _______________________________ Barbara M. Christensen, City Recorder SIGNED and APPROVED this day of, 2012. ___________________ John Stromberg, Mayor Reviewed as to form: _________________________ David Lohman, City Attorney Appendix A: Technical Reports and Supporting Documents City of Ashland, Oregon Comprehensive Plan Periodically, the City may choose to conduct studies and prepare technical reports to adopt by reference within the Comprehensive Plan to make available for review by the general public. These studies and reports shall not serve the purpose of creating new city policy, but rather the information, data and findings contained within the documents may constitute part of the basis on which new policies may be formulated or existing policy amended. In addition, adopted studies and reports provide a source of information that may be used to assist the community in the evaluation of local land use decisions. Chapter II, Introduction and Definitions The following reports are adopted by reference as a supporting document to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter II, Introduction and Definitions. 1. Croman Mill Site Redevelopment Plan (2008) by Ordinance 3030 on August 17, 2010 Chapter IV, Environmental Resources The following reports are adopted by reference as a support document to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter IV, Environmental Resources. 1. City of Ashland Local Wetland Inventory and Assessment and Riparian Corridor Inventory (2005/2007) by Ordinance 2999 on December 15, 2009. Chapter VI, Housing Element The following reports are adopted by reference as a support document to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter VI, Housing Element. 1. City of Ashland: Housing Needs Analysis (2012) by Ordinance ___________ on ________________. Chapter VII, Economy The following reports are adopted by reference as a support document to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter VII, The Economy. 1. City of Ashland: Economic Opportunities Analysis (April 2007) by Ordinance 3030 on August 17, 2010 Chapter XII, Urbanization The following reports are adopted by reference as a support document to the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter XII, Urbanization. 1. City of Ashland: Buildable Lands Inventory (2011) by Ordinance 3055 on November 16, 2011. ASHLAND HOUSING COMMISSION DRAFT MINUTES July 25, 2012 CALL TO ORDER ChairRegina Ayars called the meeting to order at 4:30 p.m. at the Council Chambers located at 1175 East Main St. Ashland, OR 97520. Commissioners Present:Council Liaison Regina AyarsCarol Voisin Brett Ainsworth Staff Present: Barb Barasa Evan LasleyLinda Reid, Housing Specialist Ben Scott Brandon Goldman, Senior Planner Commissioners Absent Richard Billin APPROVAL OF MINUTES Lasley/Scott m/s to approve the minutes of the June 27, 2012 regular Housing Commission meeting. Voice Vote: All Ayes minutes were approved as presented. FAIR HOUSING ORDINANCE REVIEW/UPDATE Reid presented the Fair Housing Ordinance draft having received it back from the City Legal Department. Most of the changes were minor with the exception of section “N” Fair Housing Officer. The Legal Department suggested that the City Attorney, the City Administrator, the Municipal Judge and the Director of Development meet together and discuss who should be the designated Fair Housing Officer and serve in that role. Currently it is the City Attorney. Since that meeting has not taken place the agenda item has been bumped from the August City Council meeting and Reid is not sure when it will go forward. Reid will bring it back to the Housing Commission once the amendment has been made. At this point all Fair Housing complaints that come to the City get evaluated by Reid and then are referred to BOLI with the State or to HUD with the Federal Government. Reid did not believe that the City Attorney has had to act in this capacity in the past. PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF THE DRAFT 2012 HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS Reid explained that the Housing Needs Analysis serves a couple of purposes. This report gives the City a look at what the housing needs and demands are within the community and match those up with our inventory of land. ORS 197.267 requires that cities of a certain size undertake a Housing Needs Analysis periodically. Ashland is not large enough to be compelled to do a Housing Needs Analysis; we do it so we can help the elected and appointed officials plan and prepare for housing needs, stated Reid. This draft will be presented next to the Planning Commission at a study session followed by a public hearing at both the Housing Commission and the Planning Commission and then on to the City Council. This analysis will be useful in terms of reviews with planning actions and would be adopted by the City Council as an appendage to the Comprehensive Plan. This draft is still in the preliminary stages but Reid would like some feedback from the Commissioners. 1 The Commissioners discussed the potential land use strategies for addressing key housing issues identified in the 2012 Housing Needs Analysis. One topic discussed was the evaluation of parking requirements and potential reductions to promote smaller unit sizes. Goldman said a recent change to parking standards was made city wide with the Pedestrian Places Overlay Zone. A unit 500 square feet or less does not need additional parking spaces and an increase to on street parking was made. An allowance was also made allowing seven bike parking spots to substitute for automobile parking which would most benefit places such as apartments. . The Commissioners inquired if Southern Oregon University expects to fill all the new Dormitory rooms being built off of Walker Street. They questioned the need for so many units taking into consideration the current enrollment. The college owns many private rental properties which are not included in the count. Would this create vacancies with those homes when the dorm rooms are filled, asked the Commissioners? Goldman stated that none of the SOU owned units are indicated in their 2020 master plan as going into market rate housing. Reid stated that Census data used to compile the housing information in the Housing Needs Analysis does take into account SOU multi-family rental properties and counts the dorms as group housing. The Commissioners agreed when Reid presents this draft to City Council she needs to focus on the recommendations that staff is making in order to help address the housing issues. What kind of housing are we going to need to accommodate the future population of Ashland? The Housing Needs Analysis shows that homeownership rates in Ashland lag behind that of Medford, Jackson County and the State of Oregon. Ownership and rental rates are more of a 50/50 split in Ashland rather than a 60/30 ownership to rental rate which it the average for the County and the State. The chart on page 65 of the HNA shows a simple breakdown of existing units. If development continues as it has historically, the City will be looking at a deficit of rental units by 2040. The main purpose of the chart is to determine if the City has enough land in each zone to accommodate the development of needed housing types. The Commissioners will take the opportunity to continue to review the Housing Needs Analysis and then get back with Reid with any comments or recommendation of changes. After that it will go to a public review before the Planning and Housing commission. CLAY STREET REVIEW DISCUSSION The Commissioners reviewed the three options for the property located at 360 Clay Street. Land Bank until current land values increase. Sell the land for Market Value Solicit a proposal for an affordable/mixed-income development The Commissioners recommended that Reid does a survey of housing providers to see what their future plans might be. At one point Jackson County Housing Authority was interested in developing the property. Reid said that Oregon Housing announced their 2012 consolidated funding cycle awards last week. Access was fully funded for their six unit Hyde Park project located in Ashland onDollarhide. The Southern Oregon region received a large amount of the funding. Reid said a wide variety of funding is available through the State of Oregon, HUD (Federal Government), Oregon Trust fund money, Home Money, low income tax credits, Oregon affordable tax credits. After Reid surveys the Housing providers the Commissioners will discuss at next month’s regular meeting in August the options and make a recommendation to go to the City Council. Scott/Lasley m/s to move the Housing Commission meeting to the Siskiyou Room at the department of Community Development and Engineering located at 51 Winburn Way. Voice vote; All Ayes, motion passed. The meeting will be at 4:00 p.m. 2 SECONDARY GOAL DISCUSSION Two of the Housing Commission secondary goals are looking at multi-family zoning and manufactured housing. The Commissioners are concerned about the obstacles preventing home owners from building affordable units. The Commissioners discussed the possibility of restricting Single Family Homes in Multi-Family zones. Goldman explained that in 2004 the City passed a minimum density ordinance for Multi-Family zones. It states that an applicant would need to build out at 80 percent the base density at a minimum. He suggested asking the people who own property in Multi-Family zones if they would have a concern with an added limitation. Goldman gave an update on the vacant land inventory in Ashland. R-3 is a High Density Residential zone and R-2 is Multi-Family Residential. Goldman said there is roughly 40 acres of vacant land available in those two zones to meet the City’s multi-family needs. LIAISON REPORTS DISCUSSION Council – No report Staff- At the August regular Housing Meeting City Recorder Barbara Christianson and City Attorney, David Loman will be giving a presentation on Commission ethics and rules. ND AUGUST 22, 2012 MEETING AGENDA ITEMS Housing Trust Fund Clay Street property options Fair Housing Ordinance Options UPCOMING EVENTS AND MEETINGS th First Reading of the Fair Housing Ordinance, City Council-Aug 7, 2012 Next Housing Commission Regular Meeting August 22, 2012 4:00-6:00 PM in the Siskiyou Room located at the Community Development and Engineering Building at 51 Winburn Way, Ashland Oregon. ADJOURNMENT - The meeting was adjourned at 6:10 p.m. Respectfully submitted by Carolyn Schwendener 3 ASHLAND HOUSING COMMISSION DRAFT MINUTES September 26, 2012 CALL TO ORDER ChairRegina Ayars called the meeting to order at 4:00 p.m. in the Siskiyou Room located at the Community Development and Engineering offices at 51 Winburn Way, Ashland OR 97520. Commissioners Present:Council Liaison Regina AyarsCarol Voisin Brett Ainsworth Staff Present: Barb Barasa Evan LasleyLinda Reid, Housing Specialist Ben Scott Carolyn Schwendener, Admin Clerk Michael Gutman, arrived at 4:10 APPROVAL OF MINUTES Ainsworth/Lasley m/s to approve the minutes of the August 22, 2012 regular Housing Commission meeting. Voice Vote: All Ayes; minutes were approved as presented. PUBLIC FORUM Brandon Goldman, City of Ashland Senior Planner spoke. Goldman acknowledged that the Normal neighborhood Master Planning effort is now well under way. The City has had interviews with most of the property owners in the area as well as received surveys back with responses on how they would like to see their neighborhood developed. Goldman explained this is of interest to the Housing Commission as it’s the last large area, approximately 94 acres, rd for residential development within the City’s Urban Growth Boundary. On October 23 at 7:00 p.m. there will be a th public design charrette at the Ashland Middle School followed by a second meeting on October 25. At the first charrette a concept plan that has already been drafted will be presented allowing the participants to have the th opportunity to give input on what they would like to see. The next meeting on the 25 will have a revised plan showing those changes and suggestions from the prior meeting. Goldman invited the Commissioners to attend those meetings. COMMISSIONER ETHICS TRAINING Barbara Christensen, City Recorder and David Lohman, City Attorney gave a presentation on the Rules, Regulations, Laws and Ethics of public servants. They were asked by City Council to provide training to the Commissions giving them the information they need to know what is expected of them. The following are some of the main points; All public records associated with this commission are public record, notes, agendas, reports, correspondence, pictures, emails etc. If using your own computer it can be called up for public records Communicate with each other through your staff Liaison All business must be conducted in a setting the public has access to If a quorum is not met everybody goes home and no meeting can be held 1 All meetings are open to the public, held within the City limits and have a 36 hour public notice Minutes are not verbatim they are a record of what happened at the meeting Do not use your public position to obtain financial benefit Gifts, including services, cannot be accepted if they are not available to everyone in the community Remember that everything is about Perception,how will it be perceived? Disclose, Disclose, Disclose. If any decision you are about to make can be a financial benefit or detriment to you your family or associated businesses, disclose it. If there is a conflict of interest do not participate and leave the room City of Ashland Code of Ethics says do not accept any valuable gift from a source directly or indirectly interested in business dealings with the City. Do not speak for the City in your Housing Commission capacity unless the commission deputized you to do so for them. Christenson asked the Commissioners for their input on uniform policies and procedures in section 2.10 of the City Municipal Code. They are looking to define what excused and unexcused absences are regarding Commissioner’s meeting attendance. What is considered an excused absence and what does unexcused mean? What should the reporting method be? Christenson asked the Commissioners to send their ideas and suggestions to Reid who will forward them on to her. Christensen thanked the Commissioners for volunteering and the time they devote to the Commission. It is very much appreciated. This presentation on Ethics training is available on the City Website CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION REPORT REVIEW (CAPER) Reid explained that the CAPER is the City’s annual report to HUD which is a required document for receiving Community Development Block Grant Funds. With our CDBG funds we create a five year grant application called the Consolidated Plan. The Consolidated Plan sets goals for the money we receive. In January people apply for those funds. The City awards those funds based on the priorities that are set in the Consolidated Plan as well as which goals have been met and which have not. The City would encourage funding for those goals which we have not yet attained. We then do an Action Plan and award the funds. Reid tracks the recipient’s progress throughout the year to see that they are meeting the goals they set. The CAPER explains what the City said they were going to accomplish and what they actually did accomplish. All the information in the CAPER was what happened for the year 2011. Ayars opened up the public hearing for comments. No one in the audience made comments, the public hearing was closed. Ainsworth/Gutman m/s to approve the CAPER as presented. Voice Vote: All Ayes, motion passed unanimously. HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS UPDATE PUBLIC HEARING Reid gave an update on the Housing Needs Analysis. In July the Housing Commission reviewed and made their suggestions and comments followed by the Planning Commission who also reviewed the document and made suggestions. Some of those suggestions were incorporated into the document. This final document is now ready th to go before the Planning Commission again on October 9 for a public hearing and then on to the City Council for th adoption on November 6. Reid cleared up a misconception about what this document actually is. This document is about what the City is more likely to see with regard to future housing populations rather then what the City would like to see. All this document can do is see what we have now and project that forward into the future. What does our population look like now and how is that going to change over a 20 year period and how do we meet the needs of that population. Reid pointed out a couple of the changes to the recommendations that were made to the document; Examine opportunities for reductions in parking requirements for the provisions of apartments meeting certain conditions. 2 Evaluate land use incentives to provide for small lots intended for small unit development It was suggested to add “multi-family” to the sentence, “Designating certain lands for rental units would encourage development of apartments”. This will be a technical supporting document to the housing element of the Comprehensive Plan. It will help with decisions as the City goes forward with planning actions to see what types of housing is needed. If the Council th adopts this on November 6 it would be appropriate for the Housing Commission to move forward with some of the recommendations as they select goals for the coming year. COMMISSIONS EXCUSED ABSENCE POLICY DISCUSSION City Administrator, David Kanner is asking for feedback on how to define excused and unexcused absences, membership reduction and potential changes to the code regarding being physically present at meetings verses participating by phone. The Commissioners discussed ideas. Regarding missing two meetings in a row, felt this should be over a period of a year January through December not six months Commissioners felt it would be more appropriate for the Mayor to write the criteria of what is excused and what is not excused. Should be his discretion for those guidelines. They would like to see medical emergencies, illnesses, unplanned events Liked the idea of giving the Chair as well as the Staff Liaison an eight hour notice of absence prior to the meeting. This allows the Commission to determine if they will have a quorum. Would like to encourage the possibility of the Commissions and Council to participate in public meetings by phone or skype. The Commissioners liked the moving to a seven member Commission from a nine member commission, though would rather the quorum be based on the seats filled rather than total number of seats. TH , 2012 MEETING AGENDA ITEMS OCTOBER 24 Quorum Check – Gutman will not be present Vacation Rentals – agenda item Discussion of meeting times place UPCOMING EVENTS AND MEETINGS Next Housing Commission Regular Meeting Goal Setting retreat – Saturday November 17, 2012 9:00 – 12:00 at the Parks Department No meeting is scheduled for December October 24, 2012 4:00-6:00 PM in the Siskiyou Room located at the Community Development and Engineering Building at 51 Winburn Way, Ashland Oregon. ADJOURNMENT - The meeting was adjourned at 5:50 p.m. Respectfully submitted by Carolyn Schwendener 3 DISCUSSION ITEM _________________________________ Unified Policies and Procedures for City Commissions and Committees From: "Dave Kanner" <dave.kanner@ashland.or.us> To: david@davidwolske.com, fluerys@ashland.or.us, pastapiatti@gmail.com, tuneberl@ashland.or.us, rparker@mind.net, truea@ashland.or.us, danmaymar@aol.com, chamberc@ashland.or.us, shobro@jeffnet.org, guntera@ashland.or.us, reginariley@jeffnet.org, reidl@ashland.or.us, "pam marsh" <pam.marsh@gmail.com>, molnarb@ashland.or.us, carol@davisandcline.com, ann@ashland.or.us, dyoung@jeffnet.org, faughtm@ashland.or.us, upperlimbit@wildblue.net, pinam@ashland.or.us Sent: Wednesday, September 19, 2012 2:33:57 PM Subject: Request for board and commission input HelloallΑ Youarereceivingthiseitherbecauseyouarethechairofacityboardorcommission,oryouareastaff liaison.Ifyouareneither,Iwouldappreciateyouforwardingthistothecorrectperson. TheCityreceivedarequestfromtheTransportationCommissiontoreduce itsmembershipfromnineto sevenandwearebringinganordinancetodothattotheCouncilnextmonth.Themayorhasaskedme tocheckwithotherboardsandcommissionstoseeifthereareanyothersthatbelievetheirappointee numbershouldbereduced. Inaddition,themayorhasquestionsabouthowtherecentchangeinthedefinitionofquorumis workingforallofyou(amajorityofallpositionsontheboardorcommission,notjustamajorityof currentlyfilledpositions). WearealsoseekingfeedbackonhowtodefineͻĻǣĭǒƭĻķğĬƭĻƓĭĻͼorapolicyonmultipleabsences,as wellasapotentialchangeinCityCodethatwouldallowCityCouncilorsorboardandcommission memberswhocannotbephysicallypresenttoparticipateinmeetingsbyphone. Pleasehaveyourboard/commissiondiscusstheaboveatyournextmeetingandprovideyourfeedback tome.IplantotakethistotheCouncilattheirNovember5studysessionandIwouldideallyliketo haveallfeedbackbyOctober30atthelatest. Thanks, Dave DaveKanner,CityAdministrator CityofAshland 20EastMainStreet,AshlandOR97520 (541)5522103or(541)4886002,TTY8007352900 FAX:(541)4885311 ThisemailisofficialbusinessoftheCityofAshland,anditissubjecttoOregonpublicrecordslawfor disclosureandretention.Ifyouhavereceivedthismessageinerror,pleaseletmeknow.Thankyou. ASHLAND PLANNING COMMISSION SPECIAL MEETING MINUTES June 26, 2012 CALL TO ORDER Vice Chair Michael Dawkins called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m. in the Siskiyou Conference Room, 51 Winburn Way. Commissioners Present: Staff Present: Troy J. Brown, Jr. Bill Molnar, Community Development Director Michael Dawkins Derek Severson, Associate Planner Eric Heesacker April Lucas, Administrative Supervisor Richard Kaplan Pam Marsh Debbie Miller Melanie Mindlin (Arrived at 7:15 pm) Absent Members: Council Liaison: None Dennis Slattery ANNOUCEMENTS Commissioner Dawkins noted he attended the Plaza Design Public Outreach Meeting and the architects have requested feedback from the Planning Commission. Dawkins shared his preference for more hardscape and trees in large containers, and requested the Commission take a few minutes to discuss the conceptual designs at the end of the meeting. PUBLIC FORUM No one came forward to speak. PRESENTATION A.Ethics & Commission Guidelines (Dave Lohman, City Attorney) City Attorney Dave Lohman provided a presentation on public records law, definition of public meetings, public meeting requirements, rules and regulations, and ethics. (Copy of presentation is attached to minutes.) General Questions The commissioners posed several questions to Mr. Lohman, including: What is the statute of limitation for how long members need to keep meeting notes and recordings? Answer: 6 years. Can commissioners attend public events if there is a quorum of members present? Answer: As long as the commissioners are not deliberating on a particular issue, this is not considered a public meeting and members are free to attend. The Planning Commission is subject to Oregon statutes, Ashland’s Code of Ethics, and state statutes specific to Planning Commissions; which one takes precedence? Answer: The Commission is subject to all three laws and need to make sure they are adhering to the most strict rules (Ashland Code of Ethics) Does the Commission have to elect a new chair every year, or does “term” indicate a member can be chair for two consecutive four year terms? Answer: Mr. Lohman stated there are different practices on the different commissions and this needs to get cleared up. He stated his opinion is that term means four years, but others have disagreed with him. Commissioner Dawkins commented that he believes when the Commission discussed this, the intent was for a one-year term for officers. Comment was made that this may be an issue with small commissions that have frequent turn-over; and perhaps this should be a recommendation Ashland Planning Commission June 26, 2012 Page 1 of 3 instead of a requirement. Additional suggestion was made for the vice chair to take over as chair after their first year, which could provide for a learning period. Are commissioners allowed to testify before the City Council? Answer: Mr. Lohman cited the language in AMC 2.10.110 and stated it is his understanding that commissioners can speak before the City Council as private citizens, however he will need to get back to the Commission on this question. Commissioner Marsh commented that it is unfortunate when a member goes before another body and speaks out against the position the Planning Commission has adopted. Does Commissioner Miller have a conflict of interest regarding the Normal Avenue Neighborhood Plan? Discussion/Answer: Commissioner Miller explained she owns property in the project area and asked if she could participate in the deliberations. She added she could provide some background information which may be helpful. Mr. Lohman stated under state law, it is an actual conflict of interest if the outcome could benefit or hurt her financially. He stated she likely has an actual conflict of interest and advised that she not participate in the discussions or deliberations. He added she could testify as a private citizen in front of the City Council, but should not testify before the Planning Commission. The Commission held general discussion about the bias issue. Comment was made that when a member is on record of having a clear bias or a predisposed position, it undermines the decision making process and that person should step aside. What is the definition of an excused absence? Answer: Mr. Lohman stated this is an issue that needs to be addressed and asked for the Commissions input. Suggestion was made to establish a yearly minimum attendance percentage, rather than a limit on unexcused absences in a row. Comment was made that it is important for a member to notify staff if they cannot attend. Support was voiced for an annual attendance rate and 80% was suggested. PUBLIC HEARINGS A.PLANNING ACTION: #2012-00573 APPLICANT: City of Ashland LOCATION: Not property-specific ORDINANCE REFERENCE: 18.108.170 Legislative Amendments REQUEST: A Legislative Amendment is proposed to adopt a new "Chapter XV - Regional Plan" element to the City of Ashland Comprehensive Plan to incorporate applicable portions of the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem Solving Plan (“the RPS Plan”) and to acknowledge revised population allocations for the City of Ashland. Jackson County recently adopted the RPS Plan which identifies urban reserve areas to accommodate a doubling of the region’s population, but before the RPS Plan can take effect, each of the six participating cities in the region (Ashland, Talent, Phoenix, Medford, Central Point and Eagle Point) must adopt the applicable portions of the plan into their comprehensive plans and implementing ordinances. (Ashland is the only participating city which has not identified urban reserves as the city’s existing urban growth boundary was determined to be sufficient to accommodate anticipated growth. Adoption of the new element incorporates those portions of the Regional Plan applicable to Ashland as a signatory participant with no identified urban reserves.) Associate Planner Derek Severson gave a brief overview of the Regional Plan and the Regional Problem Solving process (RPS). He explained the proposed adoption of the new “Regional Element” to the City’s Comprehensive Plan incorporates the portions of the Regional Plan applicable to Ashland and clarified Ashland is unique among the six participating cities in that we are the only jurisdiction to not identify urban reserves and have chosen to accommodate growth through efficient land use planning instead. He stated this new Element serves primarily as a placeholder to acknowledge the City’s participation in the plan and to provide a framework if the City chooses to pursue the creation of urban reserves in the future. Mr. Severson provided some background and noted the Planning Commission issued a recommendation in 2010 to ensure Ashland’s values are pushed forward through the RPS process, and the City Council adopted a resolution in 2011 that reiterated those recommendations. Mr. Severson stated the primary issues identified in the 2011 resolution included: 1) retaining Urban Fringe minimum lot sizes, 2) to not require jurisdictional exchange, 3) regional housing strategy timeline, 4) population figures consistent with the Comprehensive Plan, 5) address high value farm lands, and 6) more efficient land use transportation. He stated through the City’s participation in this plan, there has been a 110-acre reduction of farm lands in the URA’s; all jurisdictions must adhere to specific density commitments; 49% of new dwellings and 44% of new commercial must be mixed use, pedestrian friendly, or in a transit oriented district by 2020; and conceptual land use and transportation plans will be required for urban reserves. Ashland Planning Commission June 26, 2012 Page 2 of 3