HomeMy WebLinkAbout2017-05-25 Budget Committee MinutesBudget Committee Meeting
May 25, 2017
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BUDGET COMMITTEE MEETING
MINUTES
May 25, 2017
Council Chambers
1175 E. Main Street
Budget Committee Chair David Runkel called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m. in the Civic Center Council
Chambers.
ROLL CALL
Present: Sal Amery
Mary Cody
Traci Darrow
Garrett Furuichi
Paula Hyatt
Greg Lemhouse
Shaun Moran
Mike Morris arrived at 6:06 p.m.
James Nagel
David Runkel
Stefani Seffinger arrived at 6:54 p.m.
Dennis Slattery
John Stromberg
Rich Rosenthal arrived at 7:02 p.m.
APPROVAL OF MINUTES
Slattery/Stromberg m/s to approve the minutes of the April 6, 2017 and April 13, 2017 ECTS
subcommittee meetings. Voice Vote: Amery, Cody, Darrow, Hyatt, Lemhouse, Moran, Nagel, Runkel,
Slattery and Stromberg, YES. Furuichi, NO. Motion passed 10-1.
PUBLIC INPUT
Susan Rust/42 North Wightman/Spoke in support of the Climate Energy Action Plan (CEAP) position.
JoAnne Eggers/221 Granite Street/Supported the CEAP position and volunteered to help achieve the plan's
objectives.
Christopher Buckley/71 Dewey Street/Supported implementing smart grid technology, having better
transportation systems, efficient housing, and the CEAP position.
Lydia Holmes/922 Morton Street/Supported the CEAP position. The number of warm days would increase
11-66 by 2050 and 18-136 by 2080. Fires in the Pacific Northwest area could increase roughly 900 square
miles by 2040.
Annika Larson/795 Ellendale Drive, Medford OR/Climate change threatened unique habitats and
ecosystems that held some of the rarest creatures in the world. It was disheartening to see humans continue to
harm their environment. She supported CEAP and the staff position.
Shaun Franks/330 Hersey Street/Represented True South Solar who supported the CEAP position. Phase 1
called for easy wins and foundational actions.
Roberta Stebbins/111 Granite Street/Supported the addition of five new police officers. During the budget
presentation on the Police Department, Budget Committee members asked many questions about the five
officers even though it was not in the budget and questioned why it was not included.
Nikolas Lindauer/320 Oxford Street/Supported the CEAP position. Oil was cheap but the technology
existed for alternative fuel production. Renewable energy went back into the community. The more
independent Ashland's energy supply became, the more stable the economy.
Budget Committee Meeting
May 25, 2017
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Claire Pryor/1221 Orchid Street/Climate change will not wait and society did not have the luxury of waiting.
People put off climate change discussions for 30 years and now her future was at stake. Council's decision on
the CEAP position was a decision for the future.
Harry David/950 Belleview Avenue/Asked the following, what was the budget process, where was it
documented, when did it start, who drove it and made the ultimate decision, was there a hard two year budget
and a subsequent softer budget for the longer period. What was the negotiation posture for police and fire
negotiations, will the City change the benefit model, and what was the impact of various assumptions on the
budget, what were the PERS guidelines and who controlled the process.
Jeff Golden/925 Oak Street/Supported the CEAP position and urged the Committee to protect the investment
the City had made in the CEAP.
Maya Davis/9667 Wagner Creek Road, Talent, OR/Supported the CEAP position and shared what would
happen by delaying implementing the plan.
Andrew Kubik/1251 Munson Drive/Recommended outsourcing the CEAP position or internally promoting
it to prevent further PERS obligations. He wanted an immediate freeze on outside hires with few exceptions
and a freeze on capital projects unless it replaced aging infrastructure.
Huelz Gutcheon/2253 Hwy 99/Climate change involved quantifying Kilowatt-hours, dollars, and carbons.
However, the Budget Committee today was only measuring the dollars and needed to learn how to measure
Kilowatt-hours and carbons.
Cara Cruickshank/1193 Ashland Mine Road/Urged the Budget Committee to fund the CEAP position. She
thought the City should only hire three police officers and stagger the hiring.
Susan Sullivan/305 Stoneridge Avenue/Spoke against building the East Nevada Street Bridge. It was poorly
planned, questionably funded, and environmentally damaging. She wanted a pedestrian bike bridge built
instead. The bridge went against the City and the state's Transportation System Plan (TSP).
Susan Hall/210 E Nevada/Wanted the number of police officers cut down to four, the East Nevada Street
Bridge cancelled and the money put back into the budget for other things people had advocated for.
Richard McKinney/117 8" Street/Supported the CEAP position. Climate change was already upon us and
people needed to be proactive. It had to happen globally but major efforts always started locally.
Joan Kalvelage PhD/810 Faith Avenue/Supported the CEAP position. She was a psychotherapist and talked
about the mental health aspects climate change was having on her clients.
Marni Koopman/1206 Linda Avenue/Was a climate change scientist, served on the CEAP ad hoc Committee
and Conservation Commission, and supported the CEAP position. She submitted documents into the record.
Meredith Overstreet/840 Cambridge/Asked the Budget Committee to consider the questions citizens had
brought up during the process.
David Young/747 Oak Street/Was a member of the Transportation Commission and had chaired the
Downtown Parking Management & Circulation ad hoc Advisory Committee. He was disappointed Council
voted against the parking plan. He equated that committee to the CEAP ad hoc Committee and noted the time
and effort invested in both plans.
Budget Committee Meeting
May 25, 2017
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Dave Helmich/468 Williamson Way/He was impressed with work the citizen members had done in the
Budget Committee. He cited errors he found in the budget document and stated it was unacceptable.
OLD BUSINESS
Discussion on material provided pursuant to the Budget Committee action on May 18, 2017
Administrative Services/Finance Director Mark Welch explained staff had provided information used to
develop the budget. There were variances in the information from last week and this meeting. Spreadsheets
used to develop the budget included non -position specific items like overtime, vacation pay, sick leave, and
holiday pay. Mr. Furuichi responded every single item in the handout showed a significant variance from the
budget document. Mr. Welch respectively disagreed and explained why.
Furuichi motioned to recess the meeting until all of the questions were answered. The motion died for lack of
second.
Mr. Furuichi addressed revenue forecasts on page 3-5. He thought the resources were aggressive. The one for
property taxes showed a projection of $1.7 million over the biennium and was 9.2% on something that could
not grow more than 3% a year in property tax law. The Electricity User Tax grossed $592,000 at 9.4%.
Franchise Fees grew $713,000 at 11.22% and the hotel -motel tax fund grew $651,000 at 12.46%. Fire and
Rescue was up $480,000. He wanted to know how Mr. Welch came up with such an aggressive forecast. Mr.
Welch explained the revenue for property tax was based on actual numbers provided by Jackson County for
the total assessed valuation in the City. Staff took the current rate and determined 95% of that amount would
be collected. That number went into the budget.
Mr. Welch explained the City had one of the most skilled finance directors in the state as their interim
administrative services/finance director. Knowing Bev Adams' expertise made him comfortable with the
revenue forecasts. He supported the revenue forecasts from the Department Heads as well. It was a balanced
budget with current information.
Lemhouse/Amery m/s to listen to presentations from Community Development and Public Works as
well as Agenda Item VI. Approval of Grant Process and Allocations and agree to reconvene next
Thursday at 6:00 p.m. DISCUSSION: The Committee discussed dates and availability.
Lemhouse/Hyatt m/s to amend the motion and change the meeting to Monday, June 5, 2017 at 6:00 p.m.
Voice Vote: all AYES. Motion passed.
The Committee discussed the process for submitting questions to staff. They would submit their questions to
Mr. Welch no later than end of business Tuesday, May 30, 2017. Mr. Welch would compile the questions,
remove duplicates, and post them to the City website.
PRESENTATIONS
Community Development — See attached presentation
Community Development Director Bill Molnar presented on the following:
Community Development
Significant items and changes:
• Personal Services - $225,000
• Materials & Services - $479,000
o Housing Trust Fund
o Social Services Grants
o Miscellaneous Charges & Fees, Licensing
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May 25, 2017
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The Housing Trust Fund and Social Service Grants accounted for 94% of the increase in Materials and
Services. The other 6% came from Central Service charges and licensing fees.
Planning
Significant items and changes:
• Miscellaneous Fees & Charges - $29,000
o Licensing ($5,500)
• Housing Trust Fund - $166,380
Community Development Block Grant (CDBG)
Significant items and changes
Annual CDBG Award - $159,000
• 20% for Administration
• BN 2015-17 Carryover - $136,000 — eligible for award in 2018
Building
Significant items and changes
• Personal Services — minor decrease
• Miscellaneous Fees & Charges - $23,500
o Licensing ($5,500)
The ombudsman position was originally a full time temporary position in 2005 that became permanent full
time. It was eliminated when the recession hit in 2008. The position reported to the community development
director with regular reporting to the city administrator. It would be difficult to create the position without
additional funding given activity levels. Construction valuation had increased 30%, walk in customers
increased 30%, building and land use permits 13% to 18%. Assistant planners and line planners were having
a hard time keeping up with the workload. The ombudsman position came out of an evaluation of customer
service initiated through the City Administrator as a result in complaints regarding a reduction in response
time. Staff initiated a survey to 2,000 people they had worked with over the past two years and held a
stakeholder forum. Results confirmed a difficulty navigating the City's process. Additionally, they were
currently down three full time employees.
The new software would not mitigate the need for the ombudsman and the position would actually manage the
software. The ombudsman would coordinate development services from the intake of the permit, internal
review, and final approval. It would incorporate sewer, water, storm drainage, streets, electric, AFN, and water
supply in the City. Those departments would be part of the permit routing process. The software would track
these departments. The position would advocate for the public and help navigate the process.
Community Development was functioning at recession level staffing from 2008 but the workload was back to
pre -recession activity.
Public Works — See attached presentation
Engineering Services Manager Scott Fleury presented on the following:
Infrastructure
Significant items and changes:
• Wastewater Collections Position reinstated per master plan
• Water Treatment Plant and Crowson II Reservoir Construction
• Oxidation Ditch Construction at the WWTP
• Comprehensive Street Overlay Program
• Downtown Super Sharrow Project
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May 25, 2017
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Beginning this biennium, funds from the Food and Beverage (F&B) Tax would fund the pavement overlay
program. When payments to the Wastewater Fund ended in 2023, all of the F&B Tax would be dedicated to
the street and overlay programs. The Street Fund would receive approximately $1.26 million in F&B Tax.
Street repair would start this biennium with a street overlay on North Mountain Avenue from Hersey Street to
I-5, Wightman Street from Quincy Street to Siskiyou Boulevard, and the entire length of Hersey Street.
Ashland Street and Siskiyou Boulevard were scheduled for the next biennium. Staff was working with the
GIS Division to develop a comprehensive infrastructure database that included projects in the CIP, street
rehabilitation, Electric, and Parks and Recreation Departments to help determine the greatest need and combine
efforts with the other departments.
The super sharrow was a proposed project and not approved at this time. The Oregon Department of
Transportation (ODOT) would have to approve the project prior to starting. Some of the sidewalk
improvements were rolling over into this biennium.
The City would bond for all the improvements in the Street Fund and use revenues in the Street Fund to pay
the debt service associated with the projects. The $10.39 million was the minimum the City would bond for
to accomplish all the projects. They would use rates, fees, gas tax revenue, and the F&B tax revenue to fund
the debt services. The fees and rates were the apportioned share of the cost of the project. It was not itemized
on 1-10. The revenue and long-term resource accounted for the borrowing to fund the projects. The fees and
rates accumulated paid the debt service moving forward for the roadway projects. Staff subtracted grant funds
already received or were expecting to receive. The City had the grant for the Hersey -Laurel Railroad
improvement, $800,000 for the chip seal project, and $1.5 million for the Nevada Street project with the
expectation of attaining more grant funding in the biennium if Council approved the project. Chip seal projects
were part of CMAQ grant that ODOT managed. The City did not receive funds directly and expenditures from
fees and rates going towards the project totaled $93,000. Grants were typically specific to one project. The
Metropolitan Planning Organization administered grants for Jackson County.
The City had an allotment of System Development Charges (SDCs) already collected for use on specific
projects. Council would determine how to fund critical projects if the City did not receive all the money and
revenue they had expected. SDCs could be applied to a different project as long as it was SDC eligible.
Staff would update the Airport Master Plan per the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The City would
receive a 90% grant from the FAA with a 10% match from the City. However, with this grant, the City would
have a 9% match instead. Skinner Aviation provided onsite management of the airport through a lease
agreement.
Water Fund
Piping the Talent Irrigation District (TID) from Starlight Street to Terrace Street would lower Ecoli in Ashland
Creek and increase supply coming to the City 20% by eliminating evaporation and seepage. The project would
come from a 1% loan from the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The debt service would start in
the next biennium that the City would pay with SDCs.
Water Treatment Fund
The City was in the midst of the engineering and construction of Water Treatment Plant and Crowson 11
Reservoir. Staff attained a $14.9 million loan at 1.79% to fund the construction for the Water Treatment Plant
that included $1 million in loan forgiveness.
Water Distribution
Franchise fees were imbedded in the Distribution Materials and Services line 6-12.
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May 25, 2017
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Conservation Division
There were two full time employees (FTE) in this division.
Wastewater Collection System
No questions.
Wastewater Treatment Plan
Wastewater effluent required shading for the near field and the fair field. Water quality trading dealt with the
far field. The near field must meet a certain percentage at the location where the effluent met the receiving
stream. This was why the City was considering relocating the effluent from Ashland Creek to Bear Creek to
comply with the temperature requirement. Staff expected to meet the temperature requirements through
riparian restoration and wetland construction to run the effluent into a final point on Bear Creek. The
Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) developed a new rule that detailed the fair field temperature
shading issue. The City was under administrative extension for the permit last issued in 2008 and was waiting
for DEQ to start the MPDS permit process again. The City would solve the temperature issue once DEQ issued
the new permit.
Riparian restoration consisted of planting trees for shading. Staff had $1.262 million forecasted for the shading
project during the initial two years. There would be another three years of capital costs then ongoing payments
for the 20-year cycle. The overall project cost for the 20-year period was approximately $3.5 million. Using
a cooling tower and chillers would have cost the City $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 to meet temperature needs
along with $200,000 to $250,000 operating costs for electricity annually.
Wastewater SDC
The SDCs were deferred. The City was working on funding to support the large-scale capital projects and
coincide with DEQ's permit renewal. The oxidation ditch project was in progress. Staff was finishing the
outfall mixing zone study to move forward on engineering for the mixing zone.
Storm Water
This division consisted of 3.05 full time employees.
Storm Water SDC
Master plans allowed the City to get grants, program projects, develop financial strategies to support the
program in the capital projects inherent to the storm drain system.
Support Division
Significant items and changes
• Additional Dedicated Capital Improvement Project Manager
• City Hall Advisory Committee Options Analysis and Recommendation
The City collaborated with Rogue Valley Council of Governments (RVCOG) on storm water outreach.
Staff provided backflow device education as needed and the demand was growing. A component of the
Water Master Plan update was an Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Manual for the water distribution
system that detailed items like backflow and cross connections.
Mr. Moran wanted to know how the Public Works Department measured the success of a pro] ect. Mr.
Stromberg raised a point of order that the inquiry was an attempt at management audit and not budget
related. Mr. Fleury explained staff tracked all project expenses start to finish and forwarded that information
to Finance once the project was completed. Finance added fixed assets and detail.
Budget Committee Meeting
May 25, 2017
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The cemetery had a fund over $1 million that would require a change to the City Charter to release the funds.
The best use of that fund would be upgrading the irrigation systems in the cemeteries. The money came
from perpetual care trusts that had grown over time.
Facility Maintenance Division
The former Interim Finance Director Bev Adams transferred over $1 million from the Ending Fund Balance
into Central Services to reduce central service charges. Short staffed for years until this biennium, the
Facility Division had deferred maintenance for years and had addressed priority only issues.
Fleet Maintenance
No questions.
Equipment Fund
Equipment fluctuated and depended on what type of equipment the City was purchasing.
Approving the budget did not approve the Nevada Street Bridge project. It would go before Council June 20,
2017.
APPROVAL OF GRANT PROCESS AND ALLOCATIONS
Assistant City Administrator Adam Hanks explained the subcommittee made preliminary grant allocation
recommendations. There was an error in the spreadsheet that resulted in $1,000 over allocation. The
Committee packet provided different scenarios to address the over allocation.
Rosenthal/Stromberg m/s to approve the ECTS grant allocation for this year and reduce year two
grant allocations from $229,703 to $222,596. DISCUSSION: Mr. Rosenthal thanked the Committee
members. The mistake was correctable. Ms. Seffinger appreciated the Committee's efforts. Mr. Stromberg
agreed. The benefit to the community was worthwhile. Voice Vote: ALL AYES. Motion passed.
DISCUSSION OF FUNDING FOR COUNCIL PRIORITY BUDGET ADD -INS
Item delayed to the June 5, 2017 meeting.
MOTION TO APPROVE THE 2017-19 BIENNIAL BUDGET & LEVY TAX
Item delayed to the June 5, 2017 meeting.
BUDGET COMMITTEE COMMENTS
ADJOURNMENT
Meeting adjourned at 9:54 p.m.
Respectfully submitted,
Dana Smith
Assistant to the City Recorder
CITY OF
-ASHLAND
Budget Committee Meeting #3
Agenda
May 25, 2017 at 6:00pm
Civic Center Council Chambers, 1175 East Main Street
I. Call to Order
a. Roll call
II. Approval of Minutes
April 6, 2017 ECTS subcommittee meeting
April 13, 2017 ECTS subcommittee meeting
III. Public Input
Public comments on budgets to be presented this evening and/or the
entire 2017/19 biennial budget
IV. Old Business
Discussion on material provided pursuant to the Budget Committee action
on May 18, 2017
V. Presentations
• Community Development
• Public Works
VI. APPROVAL OF GRANT PROCESS AND ALLOCATIONS
Motion to approve the ECTS grant allocations.
VII. Discussion of Funding for Council Priority Budget Add -ins
Vill. Motion to Approve the 2017-19 Biennial Budget & Levy Tax
"1 move to approve the City of Ashland 2017-19 biennial budget [as revised] and
recommend the budget to the City Council for adoption, approve the property tax
levy in the amount of [up to $4.2865] per $1000 of assessed value for
fiscal year 2017-18 and fiscal year 2018-19 respectively, approve property taxes
for the payment of general obligation principal and interest bonded debt in the
total of $515,309 for fiscal year 2017-18, and $514,499 for fiscal year 2018-19.
(If budget has been revised, then "as revised" should be added to motion)
IX. Budget Committee Comments
X. Meeting Adjourned
In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to
participate in this meeting, please contact the City Administrator's office at (541) 488-6002 (TTY
phone number 1-800-735-2900). Notification 72 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City
to make reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility to the meeting (28 CFR 35.102-35.104
ADA Title I).
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Title: Discussion of Funding for Council Priority Budget Add -ins
From: John Karns Interim City Administrator
John. karns@ashland.or. us
Prior to the start of the 2017-19 biennial budget process, Council held three special meetings to
discuss, deliberate and agree on its priority items for additional funding through the budget
process. The following "key decisions" summary provides the Budget Committee with a
summary of the four approved Council priorities and their funding options identified during the
Council special meetings.
Because the Budget Committee has the legal responsibility to set the property tax rate, all
Council priorities list the nine cents of available property tax rate as the first potential funding
source. Should the committee vote not to increase the property tax rate, alternative funding
sources are provided to assist the committee in their recommendations to the Council as the
implementation of those alternative funding sources reside outside of the budget approval
process.
Key Decisions:
Police Staffing
• Does the committee wish to apply the available property tax increase ($227,000/yr), or a
portion thereof, to fund a portion the five police officer positions approved by Council
($550,000/yr)?
• Does the committee wish to recommend the use of a Public Safety Support Fee charged
on each customer's utility bill to fund the five new police officers approved by Council?
o Customer accounts with water meter only - $3.00/month AND
o Customer accounts with electric meter only - $1.75/month OR
o Customer accounts with both electric and water meters - $4.75/month
*With current utility account statistics, total revenue f -ofn this fee generates approxiinately $565, 000
C'FAP Staff
• Does the committee wish to apply a portion of the available property tax increase
($220,000/yr) to fund the proposed Climate and Energy Action Plan new staff position
with a cost of $105,000 /yr?
• Does the committee wish to fund the Climate and Energy Action Plan new staff position
through the following schedule?
o .5 from the Electric Fund (Electric Rates)
o .5 from Central Service Charges (Internal charges to all Departments)
Permit Ombudsperson
• Does the committee wish to fund the Permit Ombudsperson through a portion of the
available property tax increase?
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-AS H LA N D 3
Does the committee wish to fund the Permit Ombudsperson ($110,000/yr) through the
following schedule?
o On -tenth of a percent increase in the Comm Dev building permit fee producing
$30,000 (approx.)
o $20,000 to $25,000 from the existing $150,000 Economic Development Program
budget (unrestricted TOT funds)
o Remaining expense allocated through central service charges to the other
Depts/Divisions (.40 to .50 FTE to CS-Admin)
Rebuild Reserve Fund
Does the committee wish to fund the Reserve Fund through a portion of the available
property tax increase?
Does the committee wish to recommend to rebuild the reserve fund with all or some of
the local 3% portion of the total annual marijuana tax revenues? Tax disbursements from
the State will likely not start until August or September of 2017, and the amount is not
yet lalown. The state portion of the total amlual marijuana tax revenue is restricted to
funding law enforcement activities, but the local portion carries no restrictions.
Resource Requirements:
The cost of each add -in and potential funding source(s) are listed above.
Suggested Next Step:
As the formal body that determines the property tax rate for the City, the Budget Committee will
need to decide whether to increase the property tax rate above the current level of $4.1972 per
thousand dollars of assessed valuation to any approved amount up to but not exceeding the
maximum total tax rate of $4.2865. Additionally, the Budget Committee can provide guidance
and recommendation to Council regarding other potential funding mechanisms for the four
Council prioritized add -ins.
Potential template for property tax related motions:
I move to increase the property tax rate by cents to provide funding for
Background and Additional Information:
At a Council Special Meeting on May 4 the Council approved the top four add -ins as Council
priorities and moved to discuss funding mechanisms at subsequent Budget Committee meetings.
• Police staffing (5 FTE) had previously been approved by Council at a business meeting
on April 18, 2017.
• CEAP staffing (1 FTE) is a "Year One" implementation priority in the CEAP master
document approved by Council on March 7, 2017
• The Permit Ombudsperson (1 FTE) is the result of significant public and development
sector customer dialogue with the Community Development Department and City
Administration and is a restoration of a position eliminated in 2008-09.
• The Reserve Fund was originally established by Council via resolution (Reso 2010-18)
on June 15, 2010.
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-ASH-LAND4
ECTS Grants Attachments
1. Minutes from April 6, 2017 Subcommittee Meeting
2. Minutes from April 13, 2017 Subcommittee Meeting
3. Memo: ECTS Grants Allocation
4. ECTS Grant Allocation History
5
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Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee
ECTS Grants Subcommittee
April 6, 2017
Page 1 of 10
MINUTES FOR THE ASHLAND CITIZENS BUDGET COMMITTEE
ECONOMIC, CULTURAL, TOURISM, AND SUSTAINABILITY GRANTS
SUBCOMMITTEE
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Council Chambers, 1175 E. Main Street
1. Call to Order
Mayor Stromberg called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m.
2. Attendance
Sub -Committee members John Stromberg, Shaun Moran, Garrett Furuichi, Rich Rosenthal,
Dennis Slattery, Traci Darrow, and David Runkel were present. Staff member Adam Hanks was
present.
Mayor Stromberg asked the subcommittee to discuss how they would like the deliberations
regarding allocations to go at the next meeting, on April 13, 2017. Rosenthal proposed that they
go through applicant requests one at a time until group comes to consensus. Group agreed to this
process.
Rosenthal reminded the group that the minimum allocation amount is $5000.
3. Appointment of Chair
Moran nominated Runkel. Slattery stated he has concerns that Runkel is directly connected to
one of the applicants. Group discussed conflict of interest concerns and inherent challenges.
Runkel stated he is happy either to participate as the chair as he did last year or leave, whichever
the group determines.
Group mostly that so long as Runkel has been clear about his conflicts and so long as he isn't
allocating amounts to the recipients they are comfortable with him acting as chair.
Moran/ Furuichi m/s to appoint Runkel as Chair of the subcommittee. Voice Vote. All
Ayes. Motion Passes.
4. Public Forum
None
5. Staff Report
Hanks gave overview of where the funds are allocated, what the grant resolution states, and what
funds are required to be restricted to tourism related activities. He gave an overview of the
allocation spreadsheet the group will be using between the meetings.
6. Applicant Presentations
1. Rogue Valley Symphony Association.
Jane Kenworthy stated that this is 50th anniversary season of the symphony association. She gave
details on their recent growth, including performing an additional concert series, re -launching a
discovery program to get young people interested in playing instruments, and helping local band
leaders with education targeted at members. She reviewed what activities they intend to use the
7
Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee
ECTS Grants Subcommittee
April 6, 2017
Page 2 of 10
grant funding for.
Moran asked how many musicians will likely be participating? Was informed that there are 72
core musician, most of whom are local. The association is planning on giving them a raise due to
the expanded program they are playing.
2. Science Works Hands -On Museum
Sharon Javna and Erin Scott informed the group that at 61K attendees each year, they are the
third largest visitor destination in Ashland and are open all year round. She stated that in 2016,
16% of visitors were tourists, up from 11% in 2015. Javna informed the group how they hope to
use funds to increase visitors. She let them know that they have a new executive director named
Ann Dowdy. This year they are celebrating their 15th year.
3. Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Association
Tracy Baird stated that the intent of this organization is to assist in stabilizing the economy
through good bookkeeping practices and fraud prevention. She gave information about their
recent growth, the number of Ashland -based participants, and the national attention they have
received. She stated that they are hosting a fraud fair for local businesses
Group asked how many attendees at are expected at the fraud fair? She stated that last year they
had a one -hour speaker and over 45 attendees and a vendor fair with over 120 in attendance.
They expect to grow the numbers next year.
4. The Green Bag Solution /Neighborhood Food Project
Both Moran and Darrow disclosed that they are connected to the Neighborhood Food Project
through their connection to the Ashland Food Bank, which the Food Project supports.
Steve Russo stated that this is a documentary premiering at the Ashland Independent Film
Festival this weekend. He gave an overview of the food project history and how the documentary
came to be made and how it can be used in other communities. He gave information about how
they would use the funds to improve the film and get it out to a wider audience. He gave
information about how the film can help both increase support of the Neighborhood Food Project
and help other communities start similar programs.
S. The Rogue Initiative for a Vital Economy (THRIVE)
Tom Doolittle and Kevin Talbert gave some history of THRIVE. They gave information about
some of their local community partners and programs. Stated that the Rogue Flavor publication
is their main program, and it will be distributed this year the week after Easter. Mr. Doolittle
stated that this year they are requesting assistance in both economic development and
sustainability categories and outlined how they fit into both of those categories.
Slattery stated that the lack of questions being asked by the group isn't a reflection on interest
levels, but more on the fact they the group has read the applications and already has a good
understanding of many of the projects, events, and organizations in this process.
6 Ashland Gallery Association
Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee
ECTS Grants Subcommittee
April 6, 2017
Page 3 of 10
Elan Gombart and Sarah Burns thanked the city for the history of support. Ms. Gombart gave an
overview of how the AGA collaborates with artists and businesses and the ways in which they
are growing. She stated that funds requested will help economic viability and tourism. She gave
details on some of their events including the First Friday Artwalk, the Gallery Guide, Open
Studio Tours, and A Taste of Ashland.
Rosenthal asked if they know how many people attend First Friday Artwalks or A Taste of
Ashland? Ms. Burns stated that they know between 600 - 900 attend A Taste of Ashland because
they sell tickets. First Friday Artwalks are harder to track, as it's a wandering group of attendees.
They have attempted to do this through surveys but haven't been very successful. Rosenthal
encouraged them and all other groups to find a way to find this out so that they can say for every
dollar given to an organization, they return X amount of dollars to the community. That's what
all groups should strive for because it's hard to argue with those statistics. He encouraged AGA
to do that this year.
7. Rogue Valley Farm to School
Tracy Harding stated that they are requesting support for the Siskiyou Challenge. She stated that
the race brings in people from around the country. Other activities that they are asking for funds
to support are programs in the Ashland School District. She described some of the programs in
the schools.
Stromberg asked why their requests are nearly always the same each year and why she doesn't
feel the need to ask for more than what they are likely to receive. Ms. Harding stated that as
she's asking for funding for the same programs, there was no reason to inflate the request.
Additionally, she recognizes that there are many organizations all looking for funding.
8. Southern Oregon Film Society
Kathy Dombi stated that this is the 16th year of the Film Festival. She gave an overview of the
events which were occurring today. She stated that they expect to sell about 20k tickets this year.
She stated that 80% of attendees will go to restaurant, 40% to local shop, 12% will stay
overnight. She gave an overview of their community support, including the Oregon Trail
program. Also, they bring in filmmakers from around the world. This year they co-curated show
at the Schneider Museum and are doing a program with ScienceWorks. Beyond the April Film
Festival, they also have World Film Week in October.
Stromberg asked what is the vision for the future of the Film Festival? He wondered if they
would like to grow or if they feel they are at a size appropriate for this area. Ms. Dombi stated
that there is a push to expand but they do recognize there are limits such as venues available and
the expense of marketing outside of the region.
Stromberg stated that are the number and size of the venues the real limit to their growth? Ms.
Dombi stated no, it's more the expense of expanding their marking efforts to reach outside the
area.
9. Mt. Ashland Association
Hiram Towle stated that Mt. Ashland is in better fiscal state that previous thanks to funding from
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the City. Increased skier visits and have lots of big projects underway for the next year. Thanked
the group for past support
Michael Stringer gave overview of the ways last year's grant was used.
Moran asked since last year allocation was $7000, but your request this year is $20,000, if you
don't get full funding what would the funding be used for? Mr. Stringer stated that it would be
used for the ski shuttle program because it has such a direct link to Ashland. Moran asked if they
have looked into marketing or co -marketing with the Ashland Chamber or the Bed and Breakfast
Association to enhance the numbers of people coming to or staying in Ashland? Stringer stated
that they have a program called the Lift Lodge program which does that.
10. Ashland New Plays Festival
James Pagliasotti stated that they are in their 26t" season and are nearing the halfway point in a
five-year funding plan. The new fielding has served to expand both quality and quantity of the
plays and increased the involvement of volunteers in the community. He gave an overview of
how past grants were used and what they were able to leverage through being able to use the City
of Ashland name.
IL Southern Oregon Repertory Singers
Phyllis Fernland stated that they have been active for 32 years and are the only semi-professional
choral group in the Rogue Valley. She stated that they are hoping to be one of the cultural
magnets in the area. She gave an overview of how they have grown in attendance and number of
programs they can offer. About 200 high school students and their families get free ticket
vouchers and transportation to their concerts. She gave an overview of the other programs they
will be doing this year.
Stromberg asked what enables them to bring in such high-level performers to such a small
organization far from a larger city? Ms. Fernland stated that their director, Paul French, has a
fabulous reputation and lots of very good contacts. Others come because they love performing in
the SOU recital hall.
12. Chamber Music Concerts
Larry Cooper stated that while they are an affiliate of the SOU Foundation, they are a completely
separate organization with a separate board and only use SOU Foundation for some accounting
assistance. Funds for this grant help to provide chamber music otherwise unavailable to the
community. He gave an overview of their upcoming season. Will be using any grant funding for
education outreach to schools and Mountain Meadows.
Stromberg asked for some additional information regarding their education outreach. Mr. Cooper
stated that the purpose of the outreach is to bring the world of chamber music to people who
otherwise wouldn't have exposure. Stromberg asked if they have any indication of the outreach
program success? Mr. Cooper stated that they frequently get letters from students and teachers
who are motivated to learn more about music or go further in their music education.
13. Lomakatsi Restoration Project
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Marko Bey stated that they group may have noticed the helicopter work they assisted with as a
partner in the AFR project. They are asking for funding this year for the Youth Training and
Employment Program and are expecting 20 young people and two tribal governments to
participate this year. Belinda Brown gave an overview of what the students gain through this
program. Sheila Carter stated that part of the funding request is also their education programs in
the Ashland Schools. This program has been going on for over 20 years and is an important part
of their interactions with the community.
Moran asked how this request relates to the economic development category? Ms. Carter stated
that the training they do with the youth is career development and they are paid $11/hour for
their work. They also do interviews and other job training for the youth participants.
Rosenthal asked how many years have they done the youth training for the watershed? Ms.
Carter stated that this will be the fifth year. Rosenthal asked how do you measure success? Ms.
Carter stated that it's measured both in on the ground work completed, enthusiasm of students,
and evaluations provided by participants and their parents. Rosenthal asked if they knew what
participants from five years ago are doing now? Mr. Bey stated that they are keeping track of
those students and some are returning to mentor this year's participants.
14. Friends of the Schneider Museum of Art
Scott Malbaurn stated that the Museum is a contributor to the art community and this year their
request is focused on the economic development of community. Last year had 14k visitors, 63%
come from out of town, with 41 % coming from 50+ miles away. These visitors come year-round.
This year they are look for funds to expend their marketing efforts to increase the visitor
numbers.
Stromberg asked how they plan to expand attendance? Mr. Malbaurn stated that they would like
to expanded marketing efforts, including two billboards on I-5. Additionally, they are hoping to
help locals understand the museum is here for local community through things like the Sneak
Preview, Rogue Valley Messenger, etc.
Moran thanked him for being clear on how many people are visiting and how previous grant
funding helped the Museum. Moran also asked what the Museum would do without full funding
and how would they measure success without the full amount requested? Mr. Malbaurn stated
that they are very familiar with grant funding limits and would seek other grant opportunities.
Darrow asked how much of their funding comes from SOU? Mr. Malbaurn stated that about 15%
of total budget comes from SOU. Darrow asked how they determine billboard locations? Mr.
Malbaurn stated that mostly it was about what billboard spaces are available in locations likely to
reach people who are unaware of the museum.
15. Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon
Sharon Wilson thanked the group for their previous support. She stated that this is the 301h
anniversary concert season. She gave information on their planned performances. She stated that
they offer full scholarships to 35-40% of their performers.
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16. Rogue World Music
Val Rogers stated that Rogue World Music is a young organization, whose mission is to bring
community and cultural awareness through world music. She gave an overview of the
participants in their programs. She stated that what sets them apart is their focus on world music
traditions. They hope this year to work in partnership with two other multicultural organizations;
Unity Drum and Dance and Ballet Folklorico. The $5000 request would help leverage and
additional $15,000 for a series of seven events in the fall of 2017. She gave details of those
proposed events.
Moran asked if they applied for grant funding last year? Ms. Rogers stated that they did not as
she is new to the organization.
Rosenthal thanked her for the clarity regarding of how they can leverage the grant funds and how
they will objectively measure success.
17. Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM)
Ginny Auer thanked the group for previous support. She gave overview of how funds used in the
past. She stated that SOFaM supports and promotes the production, education and economic
impact of film and media in Southern Oregon. She stated that the community of filmmakers is
growing and gave examples of how that community is supporting each other as well as
increasing the economy of Southern Oregon.
Rosenthal asked if they are finding any confusion or challenges with their name being so similar
to Southern Oregon Film Society? Ms. Auer stated that's probably more of a question for them,
but she thinks they are typically known more by the Ashland Independent Film Festival.
Stromberg asked what are the distinctive characteristic of filming in Oregon? Ms. Auer stated
that, unlike many filming locations, Oregon plays for Oregon. People see Oregon on film and
come here specifically for what they see on the screen.
Moran asked if there is one thing Ashland could do to help SOFaM better monetize the
organization what would it be? Ms. Auer stated that beyond hiring an Executive Director, funds
should go for marketing. Most of what they have done have been free opportunities, but getting
awareness of we have to offer. They have seen an increase in people coming to them and leaving
surprised by what they find here in regard to local talent and skills. Another thing the City could
do is consider incentives for filmmakers to film here could be a really exciting opportunity.
18. Dancing People Company
Jessica Klinke stated that they are a the only non-profit in the area providing dance performance
and educational opportunities. Hoping to hold a dance festival in 2018 and are requesting support
for the free community events planned for the festival. She gave an overview of the three free
events.
Furuichi asked how many participants would participate? Ms. Klinke stated that they expect 60
registered participants, not including the artists and dance companies performing and providing
the education opportunities. Furuichi asked what types of venues they would likely use for these
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events. Ms. Klinke stated that they are working on a partnership with SOU and for the free
events the armory and the bandshell in Lithia Park.
Stromberg asked when an organization decides to participate, are they paying to participate or
are you paying them? Ms. Klinke stated that they would pay artists and teachers but participants
pay to attend and take classes. They would also like to incorporate other studios and businesses
in the festival.
19. Modern Roots Foundation
Dee Fretwell stated that it is their mission to connect low income children with music. She stated
that they are focusing on the over 1,000 children who are at or under poverty levels who are in
need of tangible access to music and music education. They currently have 30 students in
Ashland receiving weekly lessons, which equates to 400 hours per year. They also hold an
annual spring break strings camp. The lessons occur year-round and the students carry these
lessons throughout their lifetime. She stated that their request this year is higher than in previous
years due to the desire to accommodate the children currently on their waitlist.
Stromberg asked what is the age range of the children they serve. Ms. Fretwell stated that it's 8
to 18 years of age.
20. Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network
Runkel reiterated his conflict of interest.
Ellen Campbell and Lisa Beach thanked the group for their time and effort in this process and for
previous funding. Gave overview of use of previous funds and how they want to continue to
expand their marketing efforts for not just the bed and breakfasts, but for all activities in and
around Ashland. Read an excerpt of a letter of support from the OSF Marketing Manager for the
Network's marketing strategy.
Furuichi asked if they are coordinating with the Visitors and Conventions Bureau (VCB)? Ms.
Campbell stated that ABBN is a member of the VCB and members of the ABBN are also on the
board of the VCB. They were asked this question several years ago and decided that as a part of
their work they would have representation on the VCB. Furuichi stated that he would like to see
funding for tourism groups to go through the VCB. Ms. Campbell stated that she doesn't think
that this occurs, but doesn't know for sure. Most of the bed and breakfasts are members of the
Chamber.
Furuichi stated that it would be nice if it was a coordinated effort and if all shared resources.
Moran agreed that he wished there was more synergy between the Chamber, VCB and the
ABBN to promote tourism and assets like our bed and breakfasts.
Stromberg asked if their marketing was targeted specifically at the types of people who stay in
only in bed and breakfasts? Ms. Campbell stated, no, they promote everything that a tourist
might want to do in Ashland; events, theater, wineries, etc. The more people who come, the more
people will stay in all lodging, including the bed and breakfasts. Gave information about some of
their programs and contests.
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Ms. Campbell informed the group that there was an error on her application. The Economic
Development request should be $6,000 and the Tourism request should be $24,000. She
apologized for the mix-up.
21. Ashland Culture of Peace Commission
David Wick stated that the proposal is a major step toward making Ashland an official City of
Peace. The funds would go for a strategic plan, monument, and a peace festival. He described
their plans and the various groups they are working with in the planning process. Mr. Wick gave
information regarding the Culture of Peace originators and their previous work and volunteer
experience. He stated that this could be another tourism draw for Ashland.
Moran asked what metrics would be used to determine success? Mr. Wick stated that this request
is the big bold step forward and is a request for the strategic planning and research for building to
the 2018 world peace monument installation. The measurement would be the plans and the
meeting time with Council and the Chamber. Ultimately, having the events would be significant
but they don't have a baseline at the moment.
Moran asked what kind of modeling or projections were used to get to the 90k request? Mr.
Wick stated that they estimated 15k per month for the baseline organizing strategic planning for
now until June of 2018 in preparation for their event in September of 2018.
Rosenthal asked if the Culture of Peace is engaged in any kind of political activity? Mr. Wick
stated that they are a non -political organization, working for the community as a whole.
22. Rogue Valley Peace Choir
Julie Rayfield informed the group that their mission is to create and enhance a culture of peace.
They sing to advocate for a healthy planet and social justice. They are a 90 member, mostly
senior, non -audition choir. She stated that they sing for free at all their events. She gave an
overview of their recent performances and performance locations. She stated that this request is
for help to produce a bi-state choir event and make it an annual event. Additionally, they are
requesting funds for equipment to continue performing.
23. Lotus Rising Project
Mario Fregoso state that the Lotus Rising Project is taking over the Rogue Valley Pride Event
from SOPride. He stated that they are envisioning an event that's more than just the parade. He
gave an overview of some of their event from last year. Additionally, they would like to expand
marketing further into the state of Oregon and by using a media consultant. He stated that in the
last three months, participation in their group has tripled, so they see a good opportunity to
expand the event.
Stromberg asked what demographics are the focus of the organization? Mr. Fregoso stated that
currently mostly focused on youth but now expanding in to adult services.
Darrow asked for clarity between the statements that they are experiencing growth in interest yet
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don't have enough volunteers to handle all the tasks. Mr. Fregoso stated that last year there was a
lack of volunteers because they only took over the Pride Events three months before they
occurred and needed more time to engage volunteers.
24. Geos Institute
Tonya Graham stated that last month City Council approved the Climate and Energy Action
Plan, which sets forth very aggressive targets. They are hopeful that the City will hire a full time
employee to implement the plan but they also recognize that the plan is too broad for the City to
do it by itself. The Plan requires assistance from the community to implement plan. Hoping to
use funds for a community engagement plan with specific focus on the business community. She
gave details of what they would like to do in that engagement plan.
Stromberg stated he is interested in how they plan to coordinate with the City or proposed
commission? Ms. Graham stated that this depends on how the commission is put together. If it's
useful, they would be happy to have a staff member on the commission. The goal is to be
complimentary to the City's efforts.
Rosenthal asked, if grant funds are given, how would the City be involved in Geos' messaging?
How would Geos stay "in sync" with the City's or Council's messaging? Ms. Graham stated that
they are expecting to be actively engaged in some fashion with the commission. Their goal is to
make sure Geos' work is complimentary and doesn't either duplicate or conflict with the City's
work.
Slattery stated that it seems like this would be the work of the commission or a staff person. He
worried that this would be in a parallel track to the CEAP and wondered if Geos would work on
a volunteer basis or only with funding? Ms. Graham stated that they have been doing volunteer
work and plan to continue doing so but as the commission figures out what it's high -priorities
are, Geos could bring capacity and resources to the commission's work. Whomever does this
work will have an enormous task list in front of them and the City's internal goal is very
aggressive and will probably take up most of their time and resources. So Geos can bring time
and resources for the other goal efforts.
25. Jefferson State Choral Coalition
Markita Shaw thanked group for their efforts. She stated the coalition is a community group of
50-80 singers. They are going from being a class through the continuing education program at
SOU to a non-profit organization. The Choral Coalition celebrates life in America by singing
popular American music. They are currently working to stabilize independence and expand the
scope of their audience. She gave details of the planned performances for which they are
requesting funding. The main event is a concert on July 4th, which won't compete with other
regular activities that day but will enhance the day's interest. The second event is a gospel
concert in the fall.
Moran asked if they don't receive funding, would the Coalition still hold the 4th of July
performance? Ms. Shaw stated that they are working on sponsorships, which may allow then do
still hold it, likely with less marketing or more volunteer assistance required.
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26. Post Growth Institute
Donnie Maclurcan stated that they provide support, training, and consultancy for non-profit
agencies in the Rogue Valley. He gave details of their history, including assistance to 58
Ashland -based organizations. They are seeking funding for their project called, "Not For Profit
Way." This is a training program to help people start, scale and sustain their projects. They
currently have a long waiting list of people seeking assistance and training. He gave information
on some of their proposed training.
Rosenthal asked if they charge for the training sessions? Mr. Maclurcan stated that they do but
they also offer many scholarships and assistance. Rosenthal asked if the scholarships are for
individuals or organizations? Mr. Maclurcan stated that they are mostly for organizations, but
they do occasionally have "social entrepreneur" individuals. He noted that this training has also
lead to job creation in the past and gave some examples. Rosenthal asked if the classes take place
in Ashland. Mr. Maclurcan stated that they do.
27. Brava! Opera Theater
Lorrie Hall stated that they were founded in 2010, and are one of only three opera organizations
in Oregon. She gave an overview of recent concerts, competitions, and classes. She stated that
they are requesting support for their upcoming season. She gave an overview of the previous
season. In the upcoming season they will be performing, "Carousel." She thanked the group for
their consideration.
Moran asked why the group doesn't charge for their events? Ms. Hall stated that they charge for
everything, with the exception of 150 free youth tickets.
Stromberg asked if it was accurate that they gave away 30k in prizes? Ms. Hall stated that this
was over the course of seven years of competitions.
6. Adjournment
Runkel gave overview of the next steps in the process.
Meeting adjourned at 8:23 p.m.
Respectfully submitted,
Diana Shiplet
Administrative Analyst
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MINUTES FOR THE ASHLAND CITIZENS BUDGET COMMITTEE
ECONOMIC, CULTURAL, TOURISM, AND SUSTAINABILITY GRANTS
SUBCOMMITTEE
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Council Chambers, 1175 E. Main Street
1. Call to Order
David Runkel called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m.
2. Attendance
Sub -Committee members John Stromberg, Garrett Furuichi, Rich Rosenthal, Dennis Slattery,
Traci Darrow, and David Runkel were present. Sub -Committee member Shaun Moran was
absent. Staff member Adam Hanks was present.
3. Staff Report
Hanks informed the group that each member has been handed a hard copy of the combined
spreadsheet of all their individual allocations. As part of the spreadsheet there is an averaging of
all the allocations, which the group can use as a starting point for final allocations, if they so
choose. He reminded the group that at the last meeting Rosenthal suggested that they go
applicant by applicant and find consensus. Hanks will track changes to the allocations live. He
reminded the group of the final total goal and the need to meet the minimum amount of tourism
allocation as laid out in Resolution 2017-03.
Group agreed to work through line by line on the allocations.
4. Public Forum
None
5. Allocations
I. Rogue Valley Symphony Association.
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5400 non -tourism and $1707 tourism for $7107.total.
2. Science Works Hands -On Museum
Rosenthal stated that the amount of the average is about what they received in years. past.
Stromberg stated that it's $5000 less than last year. Group discussed whether this reduction is
appropriate, given they are a major driver of tourism. Group agreed to come back to this
applicant after the others have been allocated, to potentially make an adjustment. For now, they
tentatively agree to $7558 non -tourism and $17,601 tourism, for a total of $25,159.
3. Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Association
Group agreed that as the minimum award is $5000, but the group average allocation came in
well below this total, they will not allocate anything this year.
4.. The Green Bag Solution /Neighborhood Food Project
Group tentatively agreed to $6000, all in non -tourism.
S. THRIVE
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Group tentatively agreed to allocate $13,600, all in non -tourism.
6. Ashland Gallery Association
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $8533 in non -tourism and $5300 in tourism, for a total of
$13,833.
7. Rogue Valley Farm to School
The initial allocation was $7400 in non -tourism and $3400 in tourism, for a total of $10,800,
Rosenthal mentioned that he thought it was courageous of them to mention that they actually
reduced their request this year, as usually the strategy is to ask for way more in hopes that you
actually get what you really need. He thinks this honesty is reflected in the allocations being a
very high percentage of what they requested. Group agreed to return to this allocation at the end
for reconsideration.
8. Southern Oregon Film Society
The initial group allocation was $9800 in non -tourism and $10,000 in tourism, for a total of
$19,800.
Stromberg stated that last year they received $26,000, so this amount feels low. Group agreed to
come back to this one for reconsideration.
9. Mt. Ashland Association
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3 800 in non -tourism and $7800 in tourism, for a total of
$11,600.
10. Ashland New Plays Festival
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $4530 in non -tourism and $1500 in tourism, for a total of
$6030.
11. Southern Oregon Repertory Singers
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism.
12. Chamber Music Concerts
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism.
13. Lomakatsi Restoration Project
Rosenthal noted that the average allocation of $18,000 is about $3000 over last year's allocation.
Stromberg stated that he is okay with it as the project is such a winner that when they are talking
to other groups about funding for AFR, the Lomakatsi work is helpful for getting support and
funding. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $18,000, all in non -tourism.
14. Friends of the Schneider Museum of Art
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5300 in non -tourism and $3600 in tourism, for a total of
$8900.
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15. Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon
The initial average allocation was $6200..Slattery made a request to round it up to $7000 and
stated that they fill a niche that's needed in the community. Group tentatively agreed to allocate
$7000, all in non -tourism.
16. Rogue World Music
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism.
17. Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM)
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $9000 in non -tourism and $4200 in tourism, for a total of
$13,200.
18. Dancing People Company
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3000 in non -tourism and $2000 in tourism, for a total of
$5000.
19. Modern Roots Foundation
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $4800 in non -tourism and $1100 in tourism, for a total of
$5900.
20. Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network
The initial allocation was $1200 in non -tourism; $10,900 in tourism, for a total of $12,900.
Rosenthal requested that Furuichi explain how he determined his allocation, as it varied so
greatly from the rest. Furuichi explained his process. Rosenthal suggested that the group allocate
$10,000 as it's more in line with previous allocations.
Furuichi stated his frustration with information received from staff regarding the history of the
allocations by category. Staff apologized for misunderstanding his request and stated they don't
think the level of detail he is requesting has been saved for previous years, but staff they will
make a note for future processes. Slattery stated that he would like a post-mortem on the process
to make improvements for next year. He additionally clarified the difference between the
Chamber of Commerce and the Visitors and Convention Bureau (VCB) and how the Ashland
Bed and Breakfast Network are connected to the VCB.
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $10,000, all in tourism.
21. Ashland Culture of Peace Commission
Group discussed the challenge of new groups not necessarily understanding the process or what
an appropriate request might be. They appreciated the on -the -ground work the group has been
doing and hope that the funding they choose to give may help them leverage funding from other
sources. Group raised concerns on how they might report success on a strategic plan versus a
specific event which could have specific metrics. Most of the group agreed that the Peace
Commission apply next year for event funding, as it will occur after the next funding cycle.
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in tourism. Group discussed whether they need to
require that the Commission bring back information regarding what they will do with this
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amount considerably lower than the initial request.
22. Rogue Valley Peace Choir.
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $2000 in non -tourism and $3000 in tourism, for a total of
$5000.
23. Lotus Rising Project
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000 in non -tourism and $1600 in tourism, for a total of
$6600.
24. Geos Institute
Rosenthal stated that he is concerned. that this request is premature but thinks there could be a
good opportunity to partner with Geos next year.
Group tentatively agreed to no funding this year.
25. Jefferson State Choral Coalition
The initial allocation was $3000. Group discussed whether it was appropriate to fund an event
which is occurring on July 4t', which already has a high level of tourism. Group agreed that they
have other events in the year which could use the funding.
26. Post Growth Institute
Slattery stated that he thinks the work they intended to do with not -for profits is a suitable idea to
fund.
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000 in non -tourism.
27. Brava! Opera Theater
Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3700 in non -tourism and $1300 in tourism, for a total of
$6600.
Group discussed how close they are in the needed allocations.
Group agreed to increase the Rogue Valley Farm to School allocation to a total of $12,000.
Furuichi requested that they allocate the minimum of $5000 to Jefferson State Choral Coalition.
Group agreed to this request.
Group discussed whether they want to increase funding for the Southern Oregon Film Society,
THRIVE, or ScienceWorks. Group discussed whether they needed to remove the tentative
funding from The Peace Commission in order to make a significant difference in these three
organizations.
Group discussed whether they need to give the film festival more funding as they are a
significant tourist driver in the city. Furuichi stated that he feels the opposite, that he thinks they
should be an example of a group no longer needing significant funding because of their success.
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Rosenthal/Slattery m/s to allocate remaining balance of $4385 to the Southern Oregon Film
Society. Discussion: none. Voice Vote: All Ayes. Motion Passes.
Runkel stated this shows how challenging this process is and how appreciative they are of all the
applicants and the work they do.
Darrow/Rosenthal m/s recommend the final allocation to the Budget Committee. Roll call
vote: Ayes: four, Nays: zero Motion Passes.
6. Adjournment
Meeting adjourned at 7:07 p.m.
Respectfully submitted,
Diana Shiplet
Administrative Analyst
21
22
CITY OF
ASHLAND
DATE: May 23, 2017
TO: Citizens Budget Committee
FROM: Adam Hanks, Interim Asst to the City Administrator
RE: ETCS Grants Allocations
Consistent with long standing practice, a sub -committee of the Citizens Budget Committee was formed
to review and recommend allocation of the Economic, Tourism, Cultural and Sustainability Grants
funds. These funds are a combination of tourism restricted and unrestricted Transient Occupancy Tax
(TOT or Lodging Tax) revenues that are allocated by Council via resolution, most recently Resolution
2017-03 passed and adopted March 7, 2017.
The attached spreadsheet reflects the sub -committee's recommended allocation of the $227,007 total
allocation available. However, due to a formula error in the spreadsheet used to track the allocations
made by the sub -committee, one cell was left out of the total award which resulted in the final
recommended allocation being $7,107 over the $227,007.
In addition to a request for the full Budget Committee to review and approve the attached allocation,
staff is requesting that the Budget Committee recommend how to address the overage of $7,107.
Options include:
Using $7,107 of the Economic Development Program funds, which is generated from the same
TOT resolution using non restricted TOT revenue.
Using $7,107 of the General Fund ending fund balance
Reducing the year two grant allocation from $229,703 to $222,596
Staff apologizes for this oversight that was not identified until after the sub -committee had adjourned
their final meeting.
City of Ashland
ADMINISTRATION DEPT
20 East Main St
Ashland, Oregon 97520
www.ashland.orms
adam@ashland.or.us
ashland.or.us
Tel: 541-552-2046
Fax: 541488-5311
TTY: 800-735-2900
23
24
ECTS Grant History
GENERALFUND
ECTS Grants
Supported by Resolution No.
Agency and Program Name
Ashland Art Center
Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network
Ashland Culture of Peace Commission
Ashland Gallery Association
Ashland New Plays Festival, Inc.
Ashland Schools Foundation
Ashland Supportive Housing and Community
Outreach
Below Stairs Productions
Brava! Opera Theater
Chamber Music Concerts
Dancing People Company
Geos Institute
Holistic Science Institute
Jefferson State Choral Coalition
Klamath Bird Observatory
KSKQ 89.5FM Community Radio
Lomakatsi Restoration Project
Lotus Rising Project
Modem Roots Foundations
Mt Ashland Association
Multicultural Assoc of Southern Oregon
Osher Life Long Learning Institute
Pollinator Project Rogue Valley
Post Growth Institute
Rogue Farm Corps.
Rogue Valley Farm to School
Rogue Calley Peace Choir
Rogue Valley Symphony Association
Rogue World Ensemble
Rogue World Music
Schneider Museum of Art, SOU Foundation
ScienoeWorks Hands -On Museum
Siskiyou Singers
Siskiyou Violins
SOPride, Inc.
Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Assoc.
Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM)
Southern Oregon Film Society (formerly
Ashland Independent Film Festival)
Southern Oregon Repertory Singers
St. Clair Productions
Stories Alive
Sustainable Valley Technology Group
The Green Bag Solution
Thrive
TreeHouse Secret Book Club and ArtNow
Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon
Ashland Chamber of Commerce
Oregon Shakespeare Festival
Total
FY14.15
FY15-16
FY16.17
FY17-18
FY18.19
Requested
Adopted
Requested
Adopted
Requested
Adopted
Requested
Adopted
Requested Ado ted
$462,060
$214,390
$602,877
$209,112
$1,426,483
$225,122
$570,905
$234,114
Resolution
#2013-05
Resolution #2015-04
Resolution
#2015-
Resolution
#2017-03
Resolution #2017-03
FY14-15
FY15-16
FY16.17
FY17.18
FY18.19
Re uested
Awarded
Requested
Awarded
Requested
Awa
Re uested
Awarded
Re uested Awarded
$25,000
$9,700
$25,000
$11,000
$25,000
$9,500
$19,900
$9,700
$26,965
$5,000
$26,000
$8,833
$30,000
$10,000
$90,000
$5,000
$35,000
$9,700
$30,000
$12,000
$32,000
$12,667
$32,000
$13,833
$18,000
$6,700
$25,000
$6,000
$11,000
$5,850
$12,000
$6,030
$5,000
$0
$12,800
$5,000
$10,000
$0
$5,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$12,000
$5,000
$9,000
$5,000
$11,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$27,040
$10,000
$50,000
$0
$20,000
$0
$214,000
$0
$5,000
$5,000
$25,000
$14,700
$25,000
$12,000
$22,000
$14,485
$12,280
$0
$23,000
$12,700
$20,000
$12,763
$30,000
$15,166
$25,000
$18,000
$10,000
$6,600
$7,000
_'$0
$13,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,900
$20,000
$6,667
$20,000
$11,600
$15,000
$0
$17,500
$0
$10,850
$0
$15,000
$5,000
$10,300;
$8,700
$11,000
$10,000
$12,000
$12,000
$12,000
$12,000
$7,875
$0
$7,605
$5,000
$14,000
$7,725
$15,000
$6,165
$15,000
$6,500
$20,000
$7,107
$5,000
$5,000
$30,000
$0
$6,000
$5,000
$7,500
$5,000
$42,300
$8,900
$43,000
$34,700
$48,000
$33,194
$46,000
$29,788
$45,000
$25,159
$9,670
$0
$10,000
$0
$14,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$10,000
$0
$10,000
$0
$15,000
$7,700
$24,000
$10,000
$24,000
$14,000
$30,000
$13,200
$45,000
$27,200
$40,000
$25,000
$35,000
$26,000
$35,000
$24,185
$5,000
$5,000
$10,000
$0
$12,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$10,000
$5,000
$11,200
$5,000
$5,200
$5,000
$12,000
$5,000
$7,344
- $5,000
$27,710
$8,950
$25,507
$7,000
$45,000
$11,333
$10,000
$6,000
$30,000
$26,215
$40,000
$20,000
$40,000
$17,333
$20,000
$13,600
$13,850
$5,000
$9,000
$5,000
$8,000
$5,000
$8,500
$5,000
$8,000
$7,000
$462,060
$214,390
$520,912
$225,122
$748,019
$225,122
$550,905
$234,114
$0 $0
$320,196
$380,290
�$399,305
��$�431,239$110,000
$110,000
$644,5861
$715,4121
$734,4271
$775,353
$0
25
26
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149
150
Documents) Submitted at the
05/25/2017
Street.
My name is Lydia Holmes. I am a junior at Ashland High School and I live at 922 Morton
I am here to stress the importance of funding a permanent full-time staff position to keep
Ashland accountable and to ensure our success of lowering climate emissions. I would also like
to thank everyone on the budget committee, the city councilors, and the mayor for the work that
you put into our community.
Two years ago, my family and I moved across the United States so that we could live in
Ashland. My mom and dad were awestruck and amazed by the natural beauty of Southern
Oregon. Lush forests, towering mountains, and lakes that never deviated from their brilliant blue
color.
The first thing I noticed about Ashland when I moved here was how active everyone
was. The variation of ages that ran alongside me in my first Oregon 5k ranged from elementary
school kids to senior citizens. I was taken aback at the genuine sense of community in Ashland,
I was even more amazed that I was outrun by more senior citizens than I could count.
I love running in Ashland, but its placement in the Rogue Valley makes it susceptible to
gathering large amounts of smoke that doesn't clear out quickly. Ashland community members,
including myself, are worried about running in times like the summer or the fall seasons when
the valley fills with fire smoke so dense that the only thing we see in the sky is a discolored
sun.The Ashland Climate Report Projections indicate the number of warm spell days per year in
Ashland is likely to increase by between 11 to 66 days by 2050 and 18 to 136 days by 2080.
One study estimated that the Pacific Northwest regional area burned per year would increase by
roughly 900 square miles by 2040 (Littell et al., 2013).
I remember when my cross country practices were cancelled last year for a week
because the smoke was unbearable and unhealthy to run in. I am fearful that if I stay in town for
college and go to Southern Oregon University that I won't be able to run or even walk to school
year round. If we don't follow through with our actions, or if city council pushes to wait to fund
the climate and energy plan staff position, commission, and pass the ordinance; climate change
will only get more difficult and more expensive to reverse and make the transition to clean
energy a grueling task.
Nonetheless, I am hopeful that the funding for a full-time staff person will allow Ashland
to reach their goal in lowering overall emissions for our community to do its part in mitigating
Worst impacts of climate change. I urge you to please consider my future and the future of my
friends today when voting for the climate and energy action plan staff person.
Thank you all again.
As you might know, Climate Change is one of the most drastic issues facing our
world today. It threatens all of our futures as well as the future of our children and
grandchildren. However, I don't want to just talk about the dangers posed to our
community by Climate Change, I want to talk about the opportunity that Climate Change
presents us with.
I'm aware that as the budget committee for our town you have to make hard
choices to keep our city fiscally responsible, however, I want to present the actions we
need to take to mitigate Climate Change as not just necessary for the protection of our
futures, but also an investment into our community. While changes in our energy system,
transportation and consumption are needed to decrease our emissions, they will also save
money over the long term. Implementing tools such as smart grid technology into our
utility system will conserve electricity and water, saving the community money in a era
where the price of water is predicted to rise. Other changes such as a better transportation
system and more efficient housing will lower the cost of living in our community by
cutting down on transportation and electricity costs. Finally, the more we consume local
goods and services the more we are investing in local jobs in our community. These
changes to our infrastructure and culture are not just things that we need to be doing to
mitigate Climate Change, these are changes we should be making anyway for the
improvement of our community.
As a resident of Ashland I recognize that the responsibility for these changes fall
as much upon me as upon anyone else, and I also realize that I will probably be working
to help this process of changing our infrastructure for the rest of my life. However, as a
resident I am also telling you that community members alone cannot bring about all these
changes effectively. The data, coordination and information that a city position can give
us are Irreplaceable and essential, and needs to be provided as soon as possible.
This will be a hard job. This will be ajob that will have to coordinate different
community groups with city operations while factoring in other necessary changes that
the city needs. This is also a job that cannot fail, because if we do fail, the future of our
community will be in jeopardy. That is why this is such a necessary position that needs to
be well funded.
Allocating funding for this position is not just fulfilling part of the Climate and
Energy plan that the city passed unanimously this march, it is an investment into the
future of Ashland. This is an essential position to coordinate the community efforts to
create a sustainable infrastructure and wi
ll ill pay itself back over the long-term. So thank
i
you for your time, and please fund this position so we can begin this important work.
Hello my name is Niho|as L|ndmuer, | live ot32O Oxford 8t, and am a senior atAshland High
School. Thank you Budget Committee and the City Council for all 8fthe work you do. |amhere tO
testify in favor of the funding for a new full-time administrative staff position tomanage and
oversee the climate and energy action plan.
VVHuse oil now because it's cheap and available, but the technology exists for alternative fuel
production. Oil consumption has been flat -lining O[declining iDrecent years. Crude oil prices have
grew 76 percent last year and [G8Ched_$828barrel ODOct. 21.This has caused demand b}g0
down .8% in a year. Demand for solar, on the other hand, has increased as energy collection and
storage technology improves.
As oil reserves dry up, a transition to renevvab|8G become inevit@b|e, and there are 2 pretty good
reasons 1Ostart now.
First, because renewablesare more localized than carbon giants that produce our energy today,
the money goes back into our local economy instead Ofthe pockets Ofsome coal mining Oroil
drilling companies.
The second reason is it's important to be ahead of the curve on this transition, because the more
we invest in sustainable now the better off we'll be when we can no longer buy coal and oil. Price
shocks are happening now and will only get worse, so the more independent ashland's energy
supply is, the more stable our economy will be. Making our city more solar friendly can also
develop the necessary industries for the future in@Sh|8Ddlike solar.
QOwhen vveforce 8shift tUmore sustainable energy production like equally powerful but carbon
neutral sO|Ur, we set ourselves up to baoOmm |a@d8ra of energy production in the future.
MVsecond point iGmore long term, and it's that greenhouse gasses are terrible for the eCDDODly'
High temperatures cause droughts, which intensify wildfire seasons and cause dust storms, killing
crops even in our own Rogue Valley. Global warming also intensifies hurricanes and tropical
storms, because they can pick up more energy from a warmer ocean before they hit land. CO2
emissions dissolve in our oceans and kill our shellfish and warming river temperatures kill our
salmon. All of these impacts individually leave families without means of supporting themselves,
together they result iO8Oeconomic meltdown.
8mOre firefighter positions every 2years wouldn't benecessary ifthe Earth wasn't getting hotter
and dryer because Ofhuman activities. If anyone here is worried about 8 [8% iOCFS8se. | urge them
to consider when their heating and electricity bills have tripled because our city failed to transition
tosuetain8b|eafast enough. You'll see climate change and our sluggish response at the root of all
Ofour spending issues. Keeping iDmind proper enforcement, oversight, and success 0fthis plan
will be key to avoiding fUtUn8 disaster, | believe a staff position is DeCBS8@ry SO our plan doesn't get
stuck inapile Ofpaperwork. Thank you.
VkC*-rrL.)
My name is Harry I David and I have lived at 950 Bellview Avenue,
Ashland for the to past two years. I attended the last two Ashland
budget committee meetings here. I served on a "budget watchdog"
committee in a major east Coast City for a few years.
I had initially thought to comment on the specifics of particular
presentations and to enquire about how some of the new requests
for additional staff were to be funded. After reviewing the Oregon
Public Employees Retirement System (PERS) I decided to focus; my
comments on what appears to be the elephant in the room.
None of these comments are original. The link below to the excellent
article in the Oregonian of February 12, 2017 by Ted Sickenger
provides valuable insight.
Jhttp:/ www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/02/pe-rs 9
Sabo oregonS Dub.html
May I respectfully pose some questions to the Finance Department
staff to help us understand the impact of this unfunded pension fund
liability - see below -- on the general Ashland taxpayer? Some of
these questions reflect my own innocence of City of Ashland data.
1. What is the budget process and where is it documented? When
does it start, who drives it and makes ultimate decisions, is it top -
down or bottom up, etc?? Is there a hard two year budget and a
softer longer term budget?
2. What will be the negotiating posture of the City for the next
round of Police and Fire labor contracts? a) Will changes to
employee pension fund contributions be on the table? b) Will there
be moves towards changes in the current Defined Benefit plan from
the current Defined Contribution plan? c) Will the 4% rate increase
collar be made a hard collar? What are the risks of proceeding to
binding arbitration?
3. What is the impact of various assumptions of the underfunded
liabilities - see below --on the general Ashland taxpayer??
4. Current labor contracts calculate lifetime pension benefits
on the final year salary. This final year salary can be tweaked with
sick pay, vacation pay (Tier 1 only), overtime pay and other
emoluments to very significantly increase lifetime pensions. What
are the guidelines for this process? Who controls how this is
implemented?
4 (a) What were the final actual salaries for all Ashland City
employees who had retired between 2012 and 2017; how do these
salaries compare with the salaries used as a basis for pensions"
S. What is the present value of the fully loaded pension for orle Full
Time Equivalent (FTE) Ashland employee over his/her tenure-,
What is the impact of this number on the various proposals for new
staff additions?
Could this number be as high as the Oregon PERS liability per employee -- $96.6 billion
liability at 5.5% discount divided by 134,000 PERS recipients or $720,000 per employee. Is
this something to consider when deciding to add new staff to the payroll?
In closing, may I respectfully request that our City fathers - and
mothers - apply their best minds to developing a sustainable budget
that considers it's impact on the general taxpayer and on the City's
future economic health. I am respectfully aware that the Council's
work is no picnic and wages are less than $1/hour so I do appreciate
your dedication to this public service.
Respectfully submitted
Harry I David
May 25; 2017
Let me focus on one number that is the key to any calculation of the
Oregon PERS solvency. A pension fund is 100% funded when the
assets on hand, compounded by some annual rate of growth (called
the discount rate) is sufficient to pay the already committed pension
payments to retired and current employees. This discount rate is
currently set at 7.5% per year. In 1975 Oregon legislators
guaranteed employee accounts whatever the discount rate was set
at, regardless of actual performance.
Think of the discount rate as the long term rate of return you would
expect from your investments in your 401(k) etc. Do you expect
7.5% per year going forward? Calpers has just dropped it's discount
rate to 7%. Total current assets are $54.4 billion. $s in billions
Discount Rate
Liability
Underfunding $
% UNFunded
7.5%
$76.2
$21.8
29%
5.5%
$96.6
$42.2
44%
3.5%
$126.9
$72.5
57%
80% of these liabilities are protected from renegotiation. Currently
there are 134,323 recipients in the PERS pension fund.
S�'~C,r^ S�Wuu-^
Moy26, 2017
To: Budget Committee Members, City of Ashland
Fr: Susan Sullivan, Resident, City of Ashland
Re: Budget Item — Capital Improvement Plans, East Nevada St. Extension
Over the past two years the City has heard from myself and others regarding our objections toopoorly
planned, questionably funded, and environmentally damaging vehicular bridge over Bear Creek at East
Nevada Street. This evening I respectfully ask that the City Council and its publicly appointed Budget
Committee members look carefully at the wisdom of wasting money on a boondoggle pushed forward
by the City Works Department that we will all regret. Instead, we have been requesting the City to
consider building a pedestrian/bike bridge that will better serve our community, neighborhoods, and
city for afraction ofthe cost.
For this evening's purpose I will focus on three key reasons for our objections:
Environmental:
0 There is no environmental impact statement as of yet and this will be required before we can
honestly appraise the true cost and feasibility of this project.
The project is in direct opposition to the City of Ashland's Climate Action Plan, the City's
Transportation System Plan, and the State'sTransportation System Plan, all of which include in
their primary goals to increase multi -modal transportation development. Apedestrian/bike
bridge is a far better choice. I ask with great concern, if not now, when are we going to take the
opportunities before ustoput our money where our mouths are incombating climate change
and make the right decision tolower our carbon foot print.
Community and Neighborhoods:
Our City's Transportation System Plan specifically states that we value our community and
neighborhoods and wish to keep our small town character. What danger to we create when we
propose torun 4,OUO 10,UOOvehicles through close knit neighborhoods, past aschool, where
children walk and play? Why create safety and environment hazards where could connect
neighborhoods with apedestrian/bike friendly option?
Government Transparency:
Within the last year alone there have been several opportunities for public input. The answer
has been clear. No vehicular bridge. Instead, over and over, we have asked for serious
consideration for apedestrian/bike bridge. Last September, Mr. Faughttold alarge group of
concerned neighbors that if a vehicular bridge was not wanted, it would not be built. Yet, Mr.
Foughtcontinues tolobby for the bridge project.
In February with a packed Council Chamber testifying to the Transportation Commission, the
overwhelming majority expressed opposition to a vehicular bridge. Out of over 60 people
attending the meeting, only 5were infavor. Two ofthem were developers. The Transportation
Commission voted 6 — 0 to oppose going further with the vehicular bridge. And now, here itis
again on the City's Budget proposal. And a good question is, who is going to pay for it? The
answer, the very people who oppose it!
VVehave toask ourselves, for whom isthis bridge being built? ifyou follow the money it isclear. This
bridge is being built for developers. But who is going to pay for it? How can we afford to ask our citizens
to pay for something they do not want, cannot afford, and have much higher priorities for the City's
infrastructure needs?
|respectfu|ly request that we look to what our priorities are and listen to people who are paying for it
May 25, 2017
ASHLANI) BUDGET COMNITTTLit E
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ASHLAND
I f-IAVr'__" BRIEF COMI'v"IENTS 'TO YOU Tl HITE.
THANK YOU FOR THE HAND WORK AlNlf,', DUE
DiLIGENCI YOU SPEND ON THIS BUDDGE'ram 'FOR
A S H L A NI D
'v`\lOULD LIKE TO BE ON RECORD
1 1 AM AGAINST HIRING 5 NEW FUI L TIME
POLICE OFFICERS THE RATIONALE I ,_OR
HIRING IS ILL A`v%/ED AS MANY PEOPLE HAVE
ALREADY NOTED, WE NEED _I-,() ':'.')TLJ[,,lY
MORE INNOVATIVE WAYS TO COVER THE
EXPRESSED NEEDS)
(2) 1 ,SUPPORT MORE ATTENTION STUDYING
TVAIE LONG Tf" :_ RM RETI REMEN T9 (PERS)
P /'�, C KA G E S B E IN G P Ar I D 0 U T N 011'J" A N D
1_111OSE PACKAGES ASHLAND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR IN THE FtJTURE,
I AM AGAINST BUILEIING THE E.NEVADA
AUTO BRIDGE/EXTENS IOICIP PROJECT
STR 201228) THANKS "I"I'RANSPOR"I"Al ION
COMMISiSION FOR YOUR DUE DILlGfC__NCE
OVER '18 MONT11S & VOTING (3-0 AGAINST
RECOMMENDINk") IT TO Tl6E CITY C01UNCIL,
HANK YOU MAYOR AND THE CITY
COUNCIL MEMBERS WHO HAVE SPENT
TIME STUDYING THIS PROJECT, ON JUNE
20 WHEN THE TRANSPORTATION
("Of-JI'vUSSION MEMBER, SUE NEVv'BERRY
PRESENTS THE PROJECT TO THE CITY
COUNCIL, I AM ASKING YOU 'TO APPROVE
rlf�: -,"C RECCA'df',01ENDATION. NO BRIDGE
(5) PLEASE: CANCEL. THE BRIDGE AND CIP
5-24-2017
STAFF TO SUPPORT IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE AND
Committee -
ENERGY ACTION PLAN
I am submitting this information in support of a full time staff position to oversee and
implement the Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP). The CGAPwas created over the course of
many years by numerous individuals in this room, as well as the planning experts aiCascadia
Consulting.
Climate change iSconsidered one ofthe top priorities ofCity Council, thus leading tothe
development ofthe [EAPover the past few years. And yet, vveall know how common iti3for
plans to be created just to sit on a shelf and collect dust. All of us on the CEAP Ad -hoc
committee knew that that was NOT an option for this plan, AND the kids that showed up to
EVERY SINGLE MEETING know that that is NOT an option for this plan. Which is why the
planning process was accompanied with (1) a large kickoff event that engaged almost 1,000
people, (2) city-wide polling onclimate and energy, (3) workshops Onclimate change
vulnerability, and (4) multiple large public events to engage and involve people throughout the
process. The planning process itself was designed to start to build the momentum that we need
fOrChange.
Now vvehave this momentum. \Nehave email lists. Wghave people Onthe street and in
schools talking about the plan and organizing to create action on climate change. The
momentum is growing every day.
We HAVE TO keep the momentum going. This is NOT the time to go back to business as usual.
Our Climate and Energy Action plan for Ashland is a SCIENCE -BASED PLAN based on
necornnnendationsfronothepeeprevievvedpub|icationcaUed"Assessing''DangerousC|irnote
Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations
and Nature." This paper, published in 2013 in the journal PlosOne, was written by 17 leading
climate scientists and law professors from leading institutions around the world, including
NASA, Columbia University, Harvard, and other institutions inAustralia, France, UK, and
elsewhere.
If we start this year in 2017, that was calculated to be, ON AVERAGE, 8% per year. If we wait
until 2018, we will have to reduce our emissions by 8.5% per year. So every year we wait, we
have to reduce emissions even more, which becomes even more expensive. AND every year vve
wait, there will be even more climate impacts, which have incredible COSt3 over time.
The publication shows ««hv aiming for a global average warming of anything be/Ovv 1.5" C
(about 3' F) is disastrous for future generations and what they call an "act of extraordinary
intergenerationa|i 'uytice.°|tout|inesa||ofthern jorirnpactsassociatedvvithdirnatemhange,
detailing the catastrophic impacts to coral reefs, forests, agricultural production, the increase in
wildfires, heat waves with mass mortality, massive species extinctions, and ocean acidification.
It also shows that warming of just 20 C will lead to multi -meter sea level rise with
it consequences that may threaten the very fabric of civilization." in fact, the last time the Earth
was this warm, sea level was Z0-]Dft.higher than today.
There is A LOT of work to do, and if we are taking our science -based targets seriously, and I
would recommend that we do that, we need to get started right now. We need to show our
community that we're all in this together, and that we are making progress.
In fact, our Ad -hoc Committee for the CEAP talked to the head of Seattle's Climate Action Plan
and vveasked her what the #1 most important thing was for success. She said it is IMPERATIVE
that the plan have aCHAMPION. She said that is, byfar, the most important thing for success.
Someone in higher levels of city staff who really understands what needs to be done, who can
work with ALL DIFFERENT departments, businesses, students, and Council b}identify the areas
where they can really make adifference. And someone who is just soenthusiastic and can
communicate why its important and how vvecan save money and how vvecan get really diverse
populations throughout our community all engaged and working together. The CHAMPION is
vital. Ashland does not currently have achampion.
On a positive note, there are numerous opportunities to bring in funding to help meet our
targets. With someone on staff right away, they could start looking at all of those pots of
funding that are available for cities that are taking action. Corvallis, Eugene,Bend—theyareaU
taking advantage of foundation funds and other monies to implement energy saving actions.
I want to thank for your time today and all of the previous hours and days that you have
volunteered your time tOhelp our city develop asustainable budget.
MarniKooprnan,Ph.D.
Climate Change Scientist
120hLinda Ave.
Ashland [)R9752O
SOURCE
RESEARCH
CENTER
This summer, you may have received a survey in the mail about your attitudes
and actions related to energy and climate change. Southern Oregon University
Research Center (SOURCE) and the Geos Institute mailed surveys to 2,000 randomly
selected residences in Ashland. We had an incredible response, with 1049 valid
surveys returned.
We heard loud and clear that a majority of respondents understand that climate
Fchange is a threat that needs immediate action. We also heard that many residents
are already saving energy in their homes and daily lives, but they often hit barriers that
keep them from doing more. Renters, for instance, have limited options for energy
upgrades compared to homeowners. And many people find alternative transportation
to be too inconvenient to meet their needs. Respondents expressed interest in having
the city provide more support for weatherization, alternative transportation and
11jW renewable energy.
An, 0
Respondents' views on climate change
NEW
Immediate action is needed
Climate change is real, but it is too late
Climate change is not human caused
Climate change is a hoax
I don't know
Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
77 74 73 f% A Measures already
59 being taken Percent of
respondents
IMP
40
23
10
pop
Energy Caulking Energy Energy High Low flow High Home Solar, Electric
efficient around efficient efficient efficiency shower- efficiency energy hybrid, or solar
lightbulbs doors and appliances windows insulation heads furnace/ assessment tankless panels
windows heat pump water
heater
Barriers to conservation
and renewable energy
Percent of respondents
FA
C
0% 10% 20%
Public transportation too inconvenient
Home improvement too expensive
Obligations too far for walking/biking
Live in a rental home or apartment
Alternative transportation takes too long
New appliances too expensive
Solar panels won't fit on my roof
Local food 1 produce too expensive
Don't qualify for incentives
The City of Ashland already
does a lot to support
conservation and renewable
energy. When asked what
additional actions residents
would like the City to take,
respondents said they would
like the city to invest in:
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Local renewable energy systems
Weatherization assistance for low income and s
Subsidized solar panels for low income
Expanded bus routes and times
Electric buses
Safer 1 more bike lanes
Incentives for energy savings in businesses
Better online home energy tracking
No actions
A majority of survey respondents Cities around the nation are setting greenhouse gas emissions targets and taking
support aggressive action on action on climate change. How aggressive should Ashland be compared to others?
climate change! We asked residents this question, and this is what we heard.
1 out of 20
respondents suggested no action
2 out of 20
supported 75% reduced emissions
by 2040 (state targets)
5 out of 20
recommended 80% reduced emissions
by 2030 (similar to Fort Collins, CO)
7 out of 20
preferred 100% reduced emissions
by 2050 (similar to Portland) it
6 out of 20
respondents wanted more aggressive
action, such as becoming a net exporter
of renewable energy by 2050 It tif
OPEN tJ ACCESS Freely available online PLOS I ONE
Assessing"Dangerous• Change": • i
Reductionof Carbon Emissionsi Protect Young People,
Future Generations . • Nature
James Hansen'*, Pushker Kharecha11`2, Makiko Sato', Valerie Masson-Delmotte3, Frank Ackerman4,
David J. Beerling5, Paul J. Hearty6, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg7, Shi-Ling Hsu8, Camille Parmesan"o,
Johan Rockstrom", Eelco J. Rohling12'13, Jeffrey Sachs', Pete Smith14, Konrad Steffen'S,
Lise Van Susteren16, Karina von Schuckmann17, James C. Zachos'$
1 Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America, 2 Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, New York, United States of
America, 3lnstitut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 4 Synapse Energy Economics,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, 5 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom,
6Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina, Wilmington, North Carolina, United States of America, 7Global Change Institute, University of
Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia, 8College of Law, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America, 9Marine Institute, Plymouth
University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom, 10Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas, United States of America, 11 Stockholm Resilience Center,
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 12 School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, 13 Research
School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, 14University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom, 15Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zurich, Switzerland, 16 Center for Health and the Global Environment, Advisory Board, Harvard School of
Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 17 L'Institut Francais de Recherche pour I'Exploitation de la Mer, Ifremer, Toulon, France, 18 Earth and
Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, United States of America
Abstract: We assess climate impacts of global warming
using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We
use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate
data, and simple representations of the global carbon
cycle and temperature to define emission reductions
needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disas-
trous impacts on today's young people, future genera-
tions, and nature. A cumulative industrial -era limit of
---500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the
biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the
Holocene range to which humanity and other species are
adapted. Cumulative emissions of —1000 GtC, sometimes
associated with 2-C global warming, would spur "slow"
feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous
consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to
restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat
uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible
effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given
current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act
of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Re-
sponsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon
emissions that would preclude emissions from most
remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase
down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
Introduction
Humans are not% the main cause of changes of Earth's
atmospheric composition and thus the drive for future climate
change [1]. The principal climate forcing, defined as an imposed
change of planetary energy balance [1-2], is increasing carbon
dioxide (CO,) from fossil fuel emissions, much of which will
remain in the atmosphere for millennia [1,3]. The climate
response to this forcing and society's response to elimate change
are complicated by the system's inertia, mainlydue to the ocean
and the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica together with the
long residence nine of fossit fuel carbon in the climate system. The
inertia causes climate to appear to respond slowly to this human -
made forcing, but further long-lasting responses can be locked in.
More than 170 nations have agreed on the need to lint fossil
fuel emissions to avoid dangerous human -made climate change, as
formalized in the 1992 Framcvyork Convention on Climate
Change [6]. However, the stark reality is that global emissions
have accelerated (Fig. 1) and nvvv efforts are undertivay to
massively expand fossil fuel extraction [7-9] by drilling to
increasing ocean depths and into the Arctic, squeezing oil from
tar sands and tar ,hale, hydro-fracking to expand extraction of
natural gas, dercloping exploitation of methane hydrates, and
mining of coal via mountaintop removal and mechanized long -
wall mining. The growth rate of fossil fuel emissions increased
from 1.3`,, /}car during 1980-2000 to T9o/year in 2000-2012,
mainly because ofincreased coal use [4 5].
The Framework Convention [6] does not define a dangerous
level for global warming or an emissions Cunit for fossil fuels_ The
Citation: Hansen J, Kharecha P, Sato M, Masson-Delmotte V, Ackerman F,
et al. (2013) Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of
Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLoS
ONE 8(12): e81648. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648
Editor: Juan A. Anel, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Published December 3, 2013
This is an open -access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced,
distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for
any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CCO
public domain dedication.
Funding: Funding came from: NASA Climate Research Funding, Gifts to
Columbia University from H.F. ("Gerry") Lenfest, private philanthropist (no web
site, but see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._F.-Lenfest), Jim Miller, Lee Wasser-
man (Rockefeller Family Fund) (http://www.rffund.org/), Flora Family Foundation
(http://www.florafamily.org/), Jeremy Grantham, ClimateWorks and the Energy
Foundation provided support for Hansen's Climate Science, Awareness and
Solutions program at Columbia University to complete this research and
publication. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis,
decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
* E-mail: jimehansen@gmail.com
PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 1 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
T'
J
A Global Fossil -Fuel C'0C Amiclal Emissions
1941-7,;
f.
_ Coal
4+4
�CY32GYlt - -
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
$ Global Fossil -Fuel CAD, Annual E>nussiollf
Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, based on data of British Petroleum [41 concatenated
with data of Boden et al. (5]. (A) is log scale and (B) is linear.
doi:10.13711jo u rna l.po ne.0081648.g001
European Union in 1996 proposed to limit global warning to 2 C
relative to pre -industrial times [10]. based partly on evidence that
many ecosystems are at risk kith larger climate change. The 2 C
target has reafltrtned in the 2009 -Copenhagen Accord-
emerging from the 15th Conference of the Parties of the
Fratnelyork Convention [11], vpith specific language -We agree
that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to
science, as documented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
vpith a viely to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in
global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius......
A global warming target is converted to a fossil fuel emissions
target with the help of global climate -carbon -cycle models, which
reveal that eventual %yarning depends on cumulative carbon
emissions, not on the temporal history of emissions [12]. The
emission limit depends on climate sensitivity, but central estimates
[12 -13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Caimatr Change [14], are that a 2 C
-lobal vharming limit implies a CutrttlatibC carbon emissions limit
of the order of 1000 GtC. In comparing carbon emissions, note
that settle authors emphasize the sum of fossil fuel and
deforestation carbon. We bookkeep fossil fuel and deforestation
carbon separately, because the larger fossil fuel term is known
more accurately and this carbon stays in fire clinnate scstetn for
hundreds of thousands of Vcars. Thus fossil fuel carbon is the
crucial human input that must be limited. Deforestation carbon is
more uncertain and potentially caul be offset on the century time
scale by storage in the biosphere, including the soil, via
reforestation and improved agricultural and forestry practices.
There are sufficient fossil fuel resources to readily supply 1000
GC, as fossil fuel emissions to date (370 GtC) are only a .small
fraction of potential emissions from knolrn reserve., and potentially
recoverable resources (Fig. 2). Although there are uncertainties in
reserves and resources, ongoing fossil fuel subsidies and continuing
technological advances ensure that more and more of these fuels
kill be economically recoverable. As we will show, Earth's
paleoclimate record makes it clear that the CO, produced by
burning all or most of these fossil fuels hould lead to a very
different planet than the one that hutnauit% knows.
Our evaluation of a fossil fuel emissions %unit is not based on
climate models but rather on observational evidence of global
climate change as a function of global temperature and on the fact
that climate stabilization requires long-term planetary energy
balance. We use measured global temperature and Earth's
measured energy imbalance to determine the atmospheric CO,
level required to stabilize climate at todav's global temperature,
which is near the upper end of the global temperature range in the
current interglacial period (the Holocenc). We then examine
climate impacts during the past fcty decades of global warming
and in paleochnnate records including the Eemian period,
concluding that there are already clear indications of undesirable
impacts at the current level of harming and that 2 C ycarming
would have major deleterious consequences. We use simple
representations of the carbon cycle and global temperature,
consistent with observations, to simulate transient global temper-
ature and assess carbon emission scenarios that could keep global
climate near the Holocene range_ Finally, we discuss likely over-
shooting of target emissions, the potential for carbon extraction
from the atmosphere, and implications for energy and economic
policies, as well as intergenerational justice_
Global Temperature and Earth's Energy Balance
Global temperature and Earth's energy' imbalance provide our
most useful measuring sticks for quantif}inq global climate change
and the changes of global climate forchngs that would be required
to stabilize global climate. Thus wve must first quantify knowledge
of these quantities.
Temperature
Temperautre change in the past century ,Fig 3: update of figures
in [16]) includes unforced variability and forced climate change.
The long-term global warming trend is predominantly a forced
climate change caused by increased hurnan-made atmospheric
Qases,mainly CO, [1]. Increase of `'greenhouse" ,gases such as (,'O_
has little effect on incoming sunlight but makes the atmosphere
more opaque at infrared wavelengths, causing infrared (heat')
radiation to space to emerge from higher, colder levels, which thus
reduces infrared radiation to space. The resulting planetary energy
imbalance, absorbed solar energy exceeding heat emitter) to space,
causes Earth to warm. Observations, discussed belo\v, eonfinn that
Earth is now substantially out of energy balance, so the Long-term
warming will continue.
PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 2 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
1200
KU
800
400
200
0
Fossil Fuel Unissions
0i1 G&, coal Oil Gaff
Uonventional t nconventional
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
Figure 2. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions and carbon content 0 ppm atmospheric CO2 — 2.12 GtQ. Estimates of reserves (profitable to extract
at current prices) and resources (potentially recoverable with advanced technology and/or at higher prices) are the mean of estimates of Energy
Information Administration (EIA) [71, German Advisory Council (GAC) [8], and Global Energy Assessment (GEA) [9]. GEA [9] suggests the possibility of
>15,000 GtC unconventional gas. Error estimates (vertical lines) are from GEA and probably underestimate the total uncertainty. We convert energy
content to carbon content using emission factors of Table 4.2 of [15] for coal, gas and conventional oil, and, also following [15], emission factor of
unconventional oil is approximated as being the same as for coal. Total emissions through 2012, including gas flaring and cement manufacture, are
384 GtC; fossil fuel emissions alone are --370 GtC.
doi:10.1371 /journa I.pone.0081648.g002
Global temperature appears to have leveled off since 1998 (Fig.
3a1. That plateau is partly an illusion clue to the 1998 global
temperature spike caused by the El Nino of the century that year.
The 11-year i132-month] running mean temperature (Fig. 3bj
shoFvs only a moderate decline oC the %waming rate. The I 1-year
a%cra,ging period minimizes the effect of'variability due to the 10-
12 Near periodicity' oCsolar irradiance as well as irregular El Nino/
La Nifia warming/cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 1'hc
current solar cycle has weaker irradiance than the several prior
solar cycles, but the decreased irradiance can only partially
account for the decreased warming rate [17]. Variability of the El
Nino/La Nina cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as
we discuss further MONv in conjunction kith global temperature
simulations.
A
Assessments of dangerous climate change have focused on
estimating a permissible level of global warming. 'Fhc Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change [1,19] summarized broad -
based assessments with a "burning embers" diagram, which
indicated that major problems begin with global warming of 2-
3 C. A probabilistic analysis [20], still partly subjective, found it
median "dangerous" threshold of 2.8'C, kith 954= confidence
that the dangerous threshold was 15'(I or higher. 'hhese
assessments were relative to global temperature in \car 1990, so
add 0.6 C to these values to obtain the vharming relative to 1880-
1920, %chich is the base period we use in this paper for
preindustrial time. The conclusion that humanit4 could tolerate
global warming up to a 1cw degrees Celsius meshed with common
sense. After all, people readily tolerate much larger regional and
seasonal climate variations.
Global Surface Temperature
B
r
41 �
1 31, 19t)0 19.0 104(1 10611 luSf) lop)o itl0 1s8 i I00tI lot+_ 1,130 1Ol'i; lags °O,W, 20")
Figure 3. Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean. B shows the 5 and 11 year means. Figures are updates of [16] using data
through August 2013.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648.g003
PL05 ONE I www.plosone.org 3 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
The fallacy of this logic emerged recently as numerous impacts
of ongoing global swarming emerged and as palcoclimate
implications for climate sensitivity became apparent. Arctic sea
ire end-ofsummer minimum area. although variable front tear to
war, has plummeted b} snore than it third in the past fewv decades,
at a faster rate than in most model, [21 ], with the .sca ice thickness
declining a ('actor of four fluster than simulated in IPCC climate
models [22]. The Greenland and antarctic- ice sheets began to
shed ice at it rate. Sou several hundred cubic kilometers per sear_
vyhick is continuing to accelerate [23-25]. Mountain glaciers are
receding rapidly all around the world [26-29] %yith efftccu on
,ea,onal firshwatcr availability of mayor ricer, [30-:32]. The hot
dry Subtropical climate belts has c expanded as the troposplierc ha,
warmed and the stratosphere cooled [33 36], contributing to
increases in the area and intensity oC drought [37] and %wildfire,
[38]. The abundance oCreel=building coral, i, decreasing at a rate
of 0.5 2"o/year, at least in part due uv ocean wcarming and
possibly ocean acidification caused by rising dis,olved CO. 139-
41]. More than half of all wild species have showcn significant
changes in where the% live and in the timing ol'major life events
[I2-11]. ML,ga-hcatwa%c,, such as those in Europe in 2003, the
Moscow area in 2010, Texas and Oklahoma in 2011, Greenland
in 2012, and Australia in 2013 pare become more \widespread
with the increase demonstrably linked to global warming [ 15 17],
These growing climate impacts, many more rapid than
anticipated and occurring %while global \\arming is less than 1 C,
imply that society should reassess what constitutes a "dangerous
level" of global warming_ Earth's palcoclimate history provides a
valuable tool for that purpose.
Paleoclimate Temperature
Major progress in quantitative understanding of'climate change
ha; occurred recently by use oC the combination of data from high
resolution ice cores covering time scales of order several hundred
thousand years [I8--19] and ocean cores for time scales of order
one hundred million years [501. Quantitatiwc insights on global
temperature sensitivity to external forcings [51-52] and sca level
sensitiyit} to global temperature [52-53] arc crucial to our
analyses. Paleoclimate data also provide quantitative information
about ho%v nominally slow feedback processes amplify climate
sensitivity [51-�2,� 1-,)61, vwhich also is important to our analwscs.
Earth's surface temperature prior to instrumental measurernetus
is estimated via prosy data. We will refer to the surfacc
temperature record in Fig. 4 of a recent paper [52]. Global mean
temperature during the Eemian interglacial period (120,000 years
agw is constrained to be 2'C warmer than our pre -industrial
1880 19201 level based on several studies of Eeniian climate [52].
The concatenation of modern and instrumental records [52] is
based on an estimate that global temperaure in the [first decade of
the 21st ecntury (+0.8 C relative to 1880-19201) exceeded the
Holocene mean by 0.25±0.25'C. That estimate vvas based in part
on the fact that sea level i, novc rising 3.2 nun/vr (32 ill/
millennium) [57], an order of magnitude Caster than the rate
during the prior several thousand years, %with rapid change of ice
sheet macs balance over the past fevc decades [23] and Greenland
and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating rates [23 21].'I'his
concatenation, vwhich has global temperature 13.9 C ua the base
period 1951-1980, has the first decade of the 21.st century slightly
(-0.1 Cl vwarmer than the early Holocene maximum. A recent
rcconstruction from proxy temperature data [55] concluded that
global temperature declined about 0.7 G between the Holocene
maximum and a pre -industrial minimum before recent warming
brought temperature back near the Holocene maximum, which is
consistent v%ith oat- analysis.
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
Climate oscillations eyHew in Fig. I of Ilan,en et al. [52] were
instigated by perturbations of Earth', orbit and spin axis tilt
relative to the orbital plane, v%hich alter the geographical and
,casonal distribution of sunlight on Earth [58]. 1`hcse forcings
change slovclr, vwith periods between 20,000 and 1,00-000 Gears.
Mid thus climate is able to ,tar ill quasi -equilibrium vwith these
forcings. Slow insolatio❑ changes initiated the climate oscillation,,
but the mechanisms that caused the climate changes to be so large
v%crc tvm po%yerfuh amplifying feedbacks: the planet's surfacc
albedo fits reflectivity, literalh its whiteness} and atmospheric COL,
amount. As the planet vwarns,. ice and snowy nich. causing the
,tnlace to be darker, absorb Store sunlight and %earn, further. A,
the ocean and soil become warmer they release CO, and other
grcenhousr gases, causing further wvarming. Together with Cast
feedback, processes, via changes of vcater vapor, clouds, and the
vertical temperature profile, these slow amplifying feedback; vcore
rc,ponsible for almost the entire glacial -to -interglacial temperature
change [59-Q].
The albedo and CO, feedback, amplified ymak orbital forcing,.
the feedbacks neccssarily changing sim,th over millennia, at the
pace of orbital changes. Today, however, CO, is under the control
of humans as fossil fuel emissions overwhelm natural changes.
Atmospheric CO, has increased rapidly to a level not seen for at
least 3 million years [56,631. Global \\arming induced by
increasing GO, swill cause ice to melt and hence sea level to rise
as the global volume of ice moves towcard the quasi -equilibrium
amount that exists Cor a givcn global temperature [53]. As ice
melts and ice area decreases, the albedo 1'ecdback v611 amplify
global warming.
Earth, because of the climate system', inertia, has not yet full
responded to human -made changes of atmospheric composition.
'I'll(, ocean', thermal inertia, which delays sonic global warming
Cor decades and even centuries, is accounted for in global climate
models and its effect i, confirmed via measurements of Earth's
energy balance (see neat section). In addition there are slovw
climate feedbacks, such as changes of ice sheet size, that occur
mainh over centuries and millennia. Slow feedbacks have little
effect on the immediate planetary encrgg balance, instead coming
into play in response to temperature change. The show feedbacks
arc difficult to model, but palcoclimate data and observations of
ongoing changes help provide quantif cation.
Earth's Energy Imbalance
At a time ol' climate stability. Earth radiates as much energy to
space as it absorb, lion, sunlight. Today Earth is out of balance
because increasing atmospheric uses such as CO,, reduce Earth's
heat radiation to space, thu, causing an energy imbalance, as there
is less energy going out than coming in. This imbalance causes
Earth to warm and move back u-mard energy balance. The
\warming and restoration of energy balance take time, ho\\ever.
because of' Eartli'.s thermal inertia, which is due mainly to the
global ocean.
Earth warmed about 0.8 C in the past century. That warming
increased Earth's radiation to space, thus reducing Earth's energy
imbalance. The remaining energy imbalance helps its assess hove
much additional warming is still "in the pipeline". Of' course
increasing CO, is onh one of the factors affecting Earth's energy
balance, even though it is the largest clunate forcing. Other
forcings include changes of aerosols, solar irradiance, and Earth's
surfacc albedo.
Determination of the state oC Earth's climate therefore requires
measuring the energy imbalance This is a challenge, because the
imbalance is expected to be only about 1 ty./m' or less, so
it(,( uracv approaching 0.1 W/m' is needed. The most promising
PROS ONE 1 www.plosone.org 4 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
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Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
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Fossil fuel emissions terminate at the end of 2015, 2030, or 2050 and land use emissions terminate after 2015 in all three cases, i.e., thereafter there is
no net deforestation.
doH 0.1371ljournal.pone.0081648.g004
approach is to measure the rate of changing heat content of the
ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice [61]. Measurement of ocean heat
content is the most critical observation, as nearly 90 percent of the
energy surplus is stored in the ocean [64-65].
Observed Energy Imbalance
Nations of the world have launched a cooperative program to
measure changing ocean heat content, distributing more than
3000 Argo floats around the ecorld ocean, with each float
repeatcdl}' dining to a depth of 21an and back [66]. Oecan
coverage by float, reached 9004, by 2005 [66], kith the gaps
mainly in sea ice regions, yielding the potential for an accurate
enerw balance assessment, provided that several systematic
measurement biases exposed in the past decade arc minimized
[67 -69] .
Argo data rcvcal that in 2005-2010 the occan's upper 2000 in
gained heat at a rate equal to 0.41 W/tn' averagecl over, Earth's
surface [70]. Smaller contributions to planetary energy imbalance
are from heat ,gain by the deeper ocean 1,+0.10 tC/nn'), energy
used in net mcltiug of tee (+0.05 ), and energy taken up by
warnning continents (1+0.02 W/Yn2). Data sources for these
estimates and uncertainties are provided elsewhere [64]. The
resulting net planetary energ4� imbalance for the six years 2005
2010 i,
The positive encrg�, imbalance in 2005 '2010 confirm, that ill( -
effect of solar variability on climate is much less than the efCcct of
human -made greenhouse gases. IC the sun were the dominant
forcing, the planet mould have a negative energy balance in 2005-
2010, schcn solar irradiance was at its loecest level in the period of
accurate data, i.e., since the 1970s [64,71]. Even 010111111 much oC
the greenhouse gas forcing has been expended in causing obscryed
0.8 C: global yearning, the residual posit.iee forcing overwhelms
the negative solar forcing. 'hhe full amplitude of solar cycle forcing
is about 0.25 11'/1112 [64,71], but the reduction of solar forcing due
to the present %ycak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we
illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar
minimum (0.58 �l'/m2) suggests an average imbalance over the
solar cycle of about 0.7 \V/m�.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the
climate forcing by aerosols, yyith two independent analyses yielding
a forcing in the past decade of about -1_5 fib'/rn2 [64,72],
including the direct aerosol forcing and indirect eflects via induced
cloud ehanaes. Given this large (negative) aerosol forcing, precise
monitoring of changing aerosols is needed [73]. Public reaction to
increasinglg bad air quality in developing regions [71] may lead to
Cuutrc aerosol reductions, at least on a regional basis. Increase of
Eardi's emerge imbalance from reduction of particulate air
pollution, which is needed for the sake of human health, can be
minimized via an emphasis on reducing absorbing black soot [75],
but the potential to constrain the net increase of climate forcing b}
Focusing on black soot is limited [76].
Energy Imbalance Implications for CO2 Target
Earth's cricny imbalance is the most vital number character-
izing the state. of' Earth's climate It informs its about the global
temperature change "in the pipeline" without further change of
climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must
be reduced to restore Earth's energy balance, which, at least to a
good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing
global climate. The measured cticrg<, imbalance accounts for all
natural and human -made climate forcing', including changes of
atmospheric aerosols and Earth's surface albcdo.
IC Earth's mean enerp� imbalance today is +0.5 W/m', CO,
must be reduced from the current level of 395 pprn (global -mean
annual -mean in mid-20131 to about 360 ppm to increase Earth's
heat radiation to space by 0.5 1V'hn2 and restore energybalance.
If Earth's energy imbalance is 0J5 W/m", CO2 must be reduced
to about 3t,5 ppm to restore energy balance [64,75].
The measured cnctgy imbalance indicates that an initial CO:
target "<350 ppm" would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize
climate without further global v%arming. That target is consistent
eeith an earlier anah:sis [54]. Additional support lot- that target is
provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and
palcoclimatc. in later parts of our paper. Specification noec of a
C:O_ target more precise than e350 ppm is difficult and
unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes oC forcings
including Other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise
assessments \611 become available during the time that it takes to
turn around CO,, growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target.
Beloyy ice find the decreasing emissions scenario that would
achieve the 350 ppm target within the present century. Specifically.
yce want to know the annual percentage rate at which emissions
must be reduced to reach this target, and the dependence of this rate
upon the date at yyhich reductions are initiated. This approach is
complennentary to the approach ofestimating cumulative emissions
allowed to achieve a given limit on global scanning [12].
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 5 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
If the only hunnan-made climate forcing were changes of
auno�,pheric C0 the appropriate CO- target might be close to
the pre -industrial CO, amount [53]. However, there are other
human forcings, including aerosols, the effect of aerosols on
cloud,, non -CO, ,greenhouse gasc,, and changes of>url'ce albedo
that rcill not disappear even it' fossil fuel burning is phased our.
.aerosol forcino, arc sub,tawialIx it restili of fossil fuel burning
[1,76], but the net aerosol forcing is a sensitise function of carious
aerosol sources [76]. The indirect aerosol effect on clouds is non-
linear [1,76] such that it has been suggested that cyen the modest
aerosol amount, added br pre -industrial humans to an othet rise
pristine anoospherc nnac have sawed it signiGcani elimatr (arcing
[59]. Plus continued precise monitoring of Earth's radiation
imbalance is probabh the best ryas to assess and adjust the
appropriate C0 2 target.
Ironically future reductions of particulate air pollution ma}
exacerbate global warming by reducing the cooling eflcct of
refleetice aerosols. IIowever, it concerted effort to reduce non -CO,
forcings by methane. tropospheric ozone, other trace ,gases, and
black soot night counteract the ryarming from a decline in
rellective aerosols [51,701. Our calculations below oCCuture global
temperature assume such compensation, as a first approximation.
To the extent that goal is not achieved, adjustments must be made
in the C0 , target or future warming may exceed calculated values.
Climate Impacts
Determination of the dangerous level of global warming
inherent]} is partly subjective. but we most be as quantitative as
possible. Early estimates (or dangerous global warming based on
the "burning embers" approach [I,19-20] have been recognized
as probably being too conseryatire [77]. A target of limiting
ryarming to 2 C! has been ryiclely adopted, as discussed above. We
suspect; however, that this may be a case of inching toward a
better answer. 11' our suspicion is correct, then that gradual
approach is itself v'cry dangerous, because of the climate systems
inertia. It will become exceedingly difficult to keep warming below
a target smaller than 2 C, if high emissions continue much longer.
We consider several important climate impacts and use
evidence from current observations to assess the effect of 0.8 C
warming and paleoclimate data for the elrect of larger v%arming,
especially the Eemian period, ryhich had global mean temperature
about +2 C rclatiyc to pre -industrial time Impacts of special
interest are sea level rise and species extermination, because they
are practically irreversible, and others important to humankind.
Sea Level
The prior interglacial period, the Eemian, ryas at most ---2 C
wanner than 1880--1920 (Fig. 3j. Sea nerd reached heights several
meters aboyc today's level [78-80], probably with instances of sca
level change of the order of I m/century [81-83]. Geologic
shoreline evidence has been interpreted as indicating a rapid sea
level rise of a fern meters late in the Eemian to a peak about 9
meters above present, suggesting the possibility that a critical
stability threshold was crossed that caused polar ice sheet collapse
[83-8 i], although there remains debate within the research
community about this specific history and interpretation. The
large Eemian sea Icvel excursions imply that substantial ice sheet
melting occurred when the ryortd was little warmer than today.
During the early Pliocene, which ryas onh --3 C rsarmer than
the Holocene sea level attained heights as much as 13-25 meters
higher than today [33.86 -891. Such sea level rise suggests that
parts of East Antarctica must be vuhrerable to ex cntual melting
with global temperature increase of a few degrees Celsiuts. Indeed,
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
satellite graxztr data and radar abirnetry reseal that the Totten
Glacier of last Antarctica, ryhich fronts a large ice mass grounded
belory sea level, is nory losing mass [901_
Greenland ice core data suggest that the Greenland ice sheet
response to Eemian warmth was limited [91].. but the fifih IPC:C
asscssmant [7 k] concludes that Greenland r cr} likely contributed
betuyeen 1.4 and 4.3 nr to the higher sea leycl of the Eennian. The
West Antarctic ice sheet is probabh more susceptible to rapid
change, because touch of it rests on bedrock vyell below sea level
[92--931. Thus the entire 3 1 meter: of global sea level contained
in that ice sheet may be vulnerable to rapid disintegration,
although arguutem, Cor stability of even this marine ice sheet have
been made [91]. However. Earth', history rercal, sca level
changes of as mach as a fors meters per century, exert though the
natural climate forcing:, chamgcd much more sloryly than the
present human -made forcing.
Expected hunkm-caused sca tecel rise is controversial in part
because predictions focus on sca Ierr1 at a specific time. 2100. Sea
level on a given date is inherenth difficult to predict, as it depends
on hors rapidly non -linear ice sheet di,iritegtation begins. Focus on
it single date also encourages people to take the estimated result as
an indication of what humanity Chess, thus failing to emphasize
that the likely rate of sca level rise immediatch aCter 2100 \sill be
much larger than within the 21" century, especialh� if CO
emissions continue to increase.
Recent estimates of sea lea el rise by 2100 have been of the order
of I m [9.5 96], which is higher than earlier assessments [261, but
the,c estimates still in part assume linear relations between
warming and sea level rise. It has been argued [97-98] that
continued business -as -usual CO3 emissions are likely to spur a
nonlinear response with multi -meter sea level rise this century.
Greenland and Antarctica have been losing mass at rapidly
increasing rates during the period of accurate satellite data [23];
the data are suggesticc of exponential increase, but the records are
too short to be conclusive. The area on Greenland ryith summer
melt has increased niarkedh, with 97" (, of Greenland experiencing
melt in 2012 [99].
The important point is that tlu uncertainty is not about whether
continued rapid CO2 emissions would cause large sea level rise,
mubrnerging global coamlinc, - it is about how soon the large
changes rxould begin. The carbon from fossil fuel burning will
remain in and affect the climate system for many millennia,
ensuring that over time sea level rise of many meters will occur -
tens of meters if most of the fossil Fuels are burned [53]. That order
of sea Icvel rise would result in the loss of hundreds of' historical
coastal cities worldreicle with incalculable economic consequences,
create hundreds of millions of global warming refugees. from
highh'-populated low-lying areas, and thus likely cause major
international conflicts.
Shifting Climate Zones
"Theory and climate models indicate that the tropical or erturn-
ing jladtcy) atmospheric circulation expands poleryard reidn
global warming [33]. There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde
data and in observational data for polcward expansion of the
tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since
the 1970s [34-35], but natural variahility may have contributed to
that expansion [36]. Change in the overturning circulation likely
contributes to expansion of subtropical conditions and increased
aridity in the southern United States [30,100], the :Mediterranean
region. South America, southern Africa. Madagascar, and
Southern Australia. Increased aridity and temperature contribute
to increased forest Gres that burn hotter and are more dcstructiyc
[38].
PROS ONE ( www.plosone.org 6 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Despite large %car -to -\car variability of temperature, decadal
averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature)
moving polcevard at a typical rate of the order of 100 krnldecade
in the past three decade, [101], although the range shifts for
apecific specie, follow more cutriplex patterns [102]. This rapid
shifting of clunatc zones far exceeds natural rates of change.
Movement has been in the same direction (;poleward, and upward
in elevation) since about 1975. Wild species have responded to
climate change, trith three-quarter, of marine species shilling their
ranges poleward a, much as 1000 km [[ 1,1031 and more than half
of terrestrial species shifting ranges poleward as low ll as 600 kin
and upward as much as 100 nl [101].
Humans may adapt to shifting climate zones better than many
species. Iloeecver, political borders can iuterferr eyith human
migration, and indigenous trays oflife already have been advcrsch
affected [26]. bnpace, are apparent in the Arctic, with niching
tundra, reduced sea ice, and increased shoreline erosion. Effects of
shifting climate zones also may be important for indigenous
Americans who possess specific designated land areas, as ee'cll a,
other cultures with long--slinnding traditions in South America,
Africa, Asia and Australia.
Human Extermination of Species
Biodiversity is affected by many agents including overharvest-
ing, introduction of exotic species, land use changes, nitrogen
fertilization, and direct effects of increased atmospheric COS on
plant ecophysiology [13]. How(-ver, an overriding role of climate
change is exposed by diverse effects of -rapid warming on animals,
plants, and insects in the past three decades.
A sudden widespread decline of frogs, with extinction of entire
mountain -restricted species attributed to global ecarniing [IO,-)
106], prodded a dramatic awakening. There are multiple causes
of die detailed processes involved in global amphibian declines and
extinction, [107-108], but global eyarming is a key contributor
and portends a planetary -.scale mass extinction in the malting
unless action is taken to stabilize cliniate while also fighting
biodiversity's other threats [1091.
Mountain -restricted and polar -restricted species are particttlarh
vulnerable. As isotherms move up the mountainside and poleward,
so does the cliniate zone in which a given species can survive If
global vyarming continues unabated, many of these species will be
eflecticcly pushed off the planet. There are already reductions in
the population and health of Arctic species in the southern parts of
the Arctic, Antarctic species in the northern parts of the Antarctic,
and alpine species eaorlchcide [f3].
A critical factor for survival of some Arctic species is retention of
all -year sea ice. Continued growth of fossil fuel emissions will cause
loss of all Arctic suninicr sea ice within several decades. In
contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just
over I C and then declining sloevly, should allow summer sea ice
to surxive and then gradually increase to levels representative of
recent decades.
The threat to species survival is not limited to mountain and
polar species. Plant and animal distributions reflect the regional
climates to which they arc adapted. Although species attempt to
migrate in response to climate change, their paths may be blocked
by human -constructed obstacles or natural barriers such as coast
lines and mountain ranges. As the shift of climate zones [110]
become, comparable to the range of some species, less mobile
species can be driven to extinction. Because of extensive species
interdependencies, this can lead to mass extinctions.
Rising sea level poses a threat to a large number of` uniquely
evoked endemic fauna living on islands in marine -dominated
ecosystems, with those living on loev lying- islands being especially,
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
vulnerable. Evolutionary history on Bermuda oilers numerous
example; of the direct and indirect impact of changing sea IvvcI on
evolutionar\ processv, (1 1 1 -1 121. evith a number of Casa being
extirpated due to habitat changes, greater competition, and island
inundation [I13]. Similarh, on Aldahabra Island in the Indian
Ocean, land tortoises were estertninated during sea keel high
stands [114]. A'ulnerabilitics would be magnified by the speed of
human -made climate change and the potentially large sca level
rise [115].
IPGC [261 reviceyed studies relevant to estimating cvcntual
extinctions. TheV estimate that if global warniing exceeds 1,6Z:
above preinchtstrial, ct 31 percent oCspecics gill be cotnnnitied to
extinction. With global %varming of 2.9 C:, an estimated 21 -52
percent of species will be committed to extinction. A corupre-
hCns1vC study of biodivcrsity indicator, over the past decade [1 161
reveals that, despite some local success in increasing extent of
protected areas, overall indicators of pressure, on biodivcrsit\
including that due to climate change are continuing to increase
and indicators of the state of biodiversit\ are continuing to
decline.
Mass extinctions occurred several times in Earth's history [1 IT
1 18], often in conjunction kith rapid cliniate change. Nee v species
evolved over millions of years, but those time scales are almost
beyond human comprehension. If we drive many species to
extinction eve will leave a more desolate, monotonous planet for
our children, grandchildren, and more generations than we can
imagine. We will also undermine ecosystem functions (e.g.,
pollination which is critical for food production! and ecosystem
resilience (when losing keystone species in food chains), as vyell as
reduce functional diversity (critical for the ability of e(osyst
erns to
respond to shocks and stress) and genetic diversity that plays an
important role for development of neev medicines, materials, and
sources of energy.
Coral Reef Ecosystems
Coral reefs arc the most biologically clirersc marine ecosystem,
often described as the rainforests of the ocean. Over a million
species, most not yet described [119], arc estimated to populate
coral reef ecosystems generating crucial ecosystem .services for at
least 500 million people in tropical coastal areas. These ccasV,tenis
are highly vulnerable to the combined effects of ocean acidification
and \e arnlitlg.
.acidification arises as the ocean absorbs CO,, producing
carbonic acid [120], thus making the ocean more corrosive to the
calcium carbonate shells (exoskeletons) of many marine organ-
isms. Geocheirical records shoev that ocean pH is already outside
its range of the past several million \cars [121--12'?], Warming
causes coral bleaching, as overheated coral expel symbiotic algae
and become vulnerable to disease and mortality [123]. Coral
bleaching and sloeving of coral calcification already are causing
mass mortalities, increased coral disease, and reduced reef
carbonate accretion, thus disrupting coral reef ecosysteril health
[K12 11.
Local human -made stresses add to the global warming and
acidification effects, all of these during a contraction of 1-2`%() per
year in the abundance of reef -building corals [39]. Loss of the
three-dimensional coral reef frameworks has consequences for all
the species that depend on them. Loss of these frameworks also has
consequences lot- the important roles that coral reefs play in
supporting fisheries and protecting coastlines from wave stress.
Consequences of lost coral reefs can be economically devastating
for many nations, especially in combination with other impacts
such as sca level rise and intensification of storms.
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 7 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
A CO u ith Peak Enissions in 2012 & Reforestation
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Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
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occurs in 2031-2080, (B) effect of delaying onset of emission reduction.
doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g005
Climate Extremes
Changes in the frequenc} and magnitude of climate extremes,
OF both moisture and temperature, are affected by climate trends
as well as changing variability. Extremes of the hydrologic cycle
are expected to uitcnsify in a rrarnwr world. A warnncr
atmosphere hold, more moisture, so precipitation can be heavier
and cause more extreme Gooding. Higher temperatures, on the
other hand, increase evaporation and can intensify droughts tkhen
the} occur, as can expansion of the subtropics, as discussed above,
Global models for the 21st century find an increased variability of'
precipitation minus evaporation [P-E] in most of the world,
especially near the equator and at high latitudes [125]. Some
model, also show an intensification of droughts in the Sahcl,
driven by increasing greenhouse gases [1261.
Obsenations of ocean salinit} patterrs for the past 50 years
reseal an intensification of [P-E] patterns as predicted by models,
but at an even faster rate. Precipitation observation, oycr land
shots the expected general increase of precipitation poletkard of
the subtropics and decrease at lower latitudes [1,26]. An increase
of intense precipitation events has been found on much of the
tyorlds land area [127 1291. Evidence for widespread drought
intensification is less clear and inherently difficult to confirm with
available data because of the increase of time -integrated precip-
itation at most locations other than the subtropics. Data anal}ses
have found an increase of drought intensity at many locations
[130 131] The magnitude of change depends on the drought
index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to
separate the effect of shifting seasonal precipitation and conGnns
an overall drought intensification [37].
Global warming of --0.6'C since the 1970s (Fig 3) has already
caused a notable increase in the occurrence ofextrenne summer heat
[1,6]. The likelihood of occurrence or the fractional area covered by
3-standard-deviation hot anomalies, relative to a base period t 1951-
1980j that %vas still within the range of Holocene climate, has
increased by more than a factor often. Large areas around 1lloscon,
the Mediterranean region, the United States and Australia have
experienced such extreme anomalies in the past three year;. Heat
waves lasting for weeks have a detastating impact on human health:
the European heat watt of sunnmer 2003 caused over 70,000 excess
deaths 1133]. This heat record for Europe was surpassed already in
2010 [134]. The number of extreme heat waves has increased
several -fold due to global warming [15-46.13:i] and will increase
further if temperatures continue to rise.
Human Health
Impacts of climate change cause widespread harm to human
health, with children often suffering the most. Food shortages,
polluted air, contaminated or scarce supplies of water, an
expanding area of vectors causing infectious diseases, and more
intensely allergenic plants are among the harmful impacts [26].
More extreme tkeather events cause physical and psychological
hann. World health experts hake concluded with -very high
confidence- that climate change already contributes to the global
burden of disease and premature death [26].
1PCC [26] projects the f'ollotving trends, if global %%arming
continue to increase, where only trends assigned very high
confidence or high confidence are included: (il increased
malnutrition and consequent disorders, including those related
to child growth and deyelopmcnt, (ii) increased death, disease and
hnjuries from heat waves, floods, storms, Gres and droughts, (iii)
increased cardio-reapirator5 morbidity and mortality associated
trith ground -level ozone. NC-hile IPCC1 also projects feeycr deaths
from cold, this positiyc effect is far outtycighed b} the negative
ones.
Growing attawricss of the consequences of human -caused
climate change triggrrs anxiety and feelings of helplessness [136-
137]. Children, already susceptible to age -related insecurities, face
additional destabilizing insecurities from questions about hotv they
vkill cope vkith future climate change [138 139]. Exposure to
media ensures that children cannot escape hearing that their
future and that of other species is at stake, and that the windoty of
opportunity to atoid dramatic climate impacts is closing. The
psychological health of our children is a priority, but denial of the
truth exposes our children to even greater risk.
Health impacts of climate change are in addition to direct
effects of air and water pollution. A clear illustration of direct
effects of fossil fuels on human health wa.s provided by an
hnadcertent experiment in China during the 1950-1980 period of
central planning, when free coal for \\inter heating was provided
to -North China but not to the rest of the country. Analasis of the
impact was made [140] using the most comprehensive data file
ever compiled on mortality and an, pollution in any developing
country. A principal conclusion tyas that the 500 million residents
of North China experienced during the 1990s a loss of more than
2.3 billion life rears owing to the added air pollution, and an
average reduction in life expectancy of 5.5 years. The degree of air
pollution in China exceeded that in most of the tyorld, }et
PROS ONE I www.plosone.org 8 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
a,,essmcntr of total health ed'ects must also include other fossil fitcl
caused air and water pollutants, as d1,CUaaed in the fbllfMing
section on ecologti and the cm ironmew.
The Text St has further discussion of health impacts of climate
change.
Ecology and the Environment
The ecological impact of fossil fuel minim increases as the
largest, easiest to access. resources are depleted I I I I]. A constant
fossil fuel production rate requires increasing ener;gk input, but
also use of more land. %%atcr, and diluent,, with the production of`
more %rate ] 1 121. The increasing ecological and enk ironnu•t)tal
impact of a gi%en amount of useful fossil fuel energy is a relevant
consideration in assessing alternative energy strategies.
Coal mining has pro,gressieeh changed front predominantly
underground milling to surf ce mining [1-13], including moun-
taintop removal with %alley fill, %yhich is nook kridespread in the
.loppalachian ecoregion in the United States. Forest cover and
topsoil are removed. explosives arc used to break up rocks to
access coal, and the excess rock is pushed into adjacent valleys,
where it buries existing stream,. Burial of hcadukater streams
cause, loss of ecosystems that are important for nutrient ceding
and production of organic matter for c1mmstream food webs
[144]. The surface alterations lead to greater storm runoff [11,5]
x6th likeh impact on downstream flooding. Water emerging from
kallev Fills contain toxic solutes that have been linked to declines in
watershed biediversity [146]. Even %%ith mine -site reclamation
intended to restore pre -mined surface conditions, mine -derived
chemical conntituents are found in domestic well water [147].
Reclaimed areas, compared with unmincd area,, are found to
have increased soil density with decreased organic and nutrient
content, and with reduced kyatcr infiltration rates [148].
Reclaimed areas hark been found to produce little if any regrowth
oCwoodv vegetation even after 15 V,ears [149], and, although this
deficiency might be addressed via more effective reclamation
methods, then, remains a likely- significant loss of carbon storage
[1191.
Oil mining has an increasing ecological footprint per unit
delivered energy because ofthe decreasing size of new fields and
their increased geographical dispersion; transit distances are
greater and wells are deeper, thus requiring more energy input
Useful quantitative measures of the increasing ecological
impacu9 are provided by due history of oil development in Alberta,
Canada for production of both conventional oil and tar .sands
development. The area of laud required per barrel of produced oil
increased by a ftctor of 12 between 1955 and 2006 [150] leading
to ecosystem fragmentation by roads and pipelines needed to
support the. wells [151]. Additional escalation ofthe mining impact
occurs as conventional oil mining is supplanted by tar sands
devclopment, with mining and land disturbance from the latter
producing find use -related greenhouse gas emissions as much as
23 times grcwer than conventional oil production per unit area
[152], but vuilh substantial variability and uncertainty [152-153].
Much of tlne tar, sands bitumen is extracted through surface mining
that remotes the 'overburden" ii.e., boreal forest ecos}stemsi and
tar sand from large areas to a depth up to 100 m, with ecological
impacts downstream and in the mined area [154]. Although
mined areas are supposed to be reclaimed, as in the case of
mountaintop removal, there is no expectation that the ecological
value of reclaimed areas krill be equivalent to predevelopmcnt
condition [1417155]. Landscape changes due to tar sands mining
and reclamation cause a large loss of peattand and stored carbon,
while also significantly reducing carbon .sequestration potential
[156]. Lake sediment cores document increased chemical
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
pollution of ecosystems during the past several decades traceable
to tar sands dcvelopnient [157] and snow and vrater samples
indicate that recent IcedS of uumerou, pollutants exceeded local
and national criteria for protection of aquatic organisms [158].
t=as mining by unconventional means has rapidly expanded in
recent }cars, tkithout commensurate understanding of the
ecological, cm ironmental and human health consequences
[159]. The predominant approach is hydraulic fracturing (" (rack-
ing"; of deep shale formation.s via injection of trillion, of gallons of
%eater, sand and toxic chemicals under pressure, thus liberating
methane [155.160]. A Luge fraction ofthe injected water returns
to the ,urf)cc it, kru water containing high concentration:, of
heak\ metals, oils, greases and soluble organic compounds [161].
Management of this kkastewatcr is a major technical challenge,
especial k because the polluted waters can continue to backilow
front the ur1Ls for manti year, [t6t]. Numerous instances of
groundv-rater and ricer contamination haler been cited [162]. High
levels of methane leakage from Cracking have been Got in [163], as
well as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds
Methane leaks increa e the climate impact of shale gas, but
whether the, leaks are sufficient to significantly alter the climate
forcing by total natural gas development is uncertain [161].
Overall, em ironmcrttal and ecologic threats posed by uncom (,n-
tional gas extraction are uncertain because of limited research,
however evidence for groundwater pollution on both local and
river basin scales is a major concert) [165].
Toclay, with cumulative carbon emissions —370 GW from all
fossil fuels, we are at a point of' severely escalating ecological and
environmental impacts from fossil fuel Ilse and fossil fuel mining.
as is apparent from the mountaintop removal for coal, tar sands
extraction of oil, and fracking for gas. The ecological and
environmental implications of scenarios krith carbon emissions of
1000 GtC or greater, as discussed belo%y. mould be profound and
should influence considerations of appropriate energti, strategics.
Summary: Climate Impacts
Climate impacts accompanying global xkannin,g of 2 C or more
would be highly deleterious. Already there are numerous
indications of substantial effects in response to warming of the
past few decades. That kkarming has brought global temperature
close to if not lightly above the prior range ofthe Holocene. We
conclude that an appropriate tartlet kvould be to keep global
temperature at a level within or dose to the Holocene range.
Global warming of 2'C would be well outside the Holocene range
and far into the dangerous range.
Transient Climate Change
We must quantitative) relate fossil fuel emi.s.sions to global
temperature in order to assess how rapidly fossil fuel emissions
must be phased down to stay under a given temperature limit.
Thus kve must deal with both a transient carbon cycle and
transient global climate change.
Global climate fluctuates stochastically and also responds to
natural and human -made climate forcings [1,166]. Forcings,
measured in \V/m' averaged over the ,globe, are imposed
perturbations of Earth's energy balance caused by changing
forcing agents such as solar irradiance and human -made
greenhouse gases (GFIGs). CO,, accounts for more than 80"(1 of
the added GHG forcing in the past 15 years [64,167] and, if fossil
fuel emissions continue at a high level, CO_ krill be the dominant
driver of future global temperature change.
We first define our method of calculating atmospheric CO, as it
function of fossil fuel emissions. We then define our assumptions
PLOS ONE I WINw.plosone.org 9 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
about the potential for dra%whng down atmospheric UO, via
reforestation and incrva.,c of soil carbon, and vwc define fossil fuel
emission reduction scenarios that we employ in our surds-. Finale
vwe describe all forcing,, cunployed in our calculations of global
temperature and the method used to simulate global temperature.
Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric COZ
The carbon cycle define, the fate of COS, injected into the air by
hassil fuel burning [1,168] as the additional CO, distributes itself,
ovra� time anrong ,trice carbon rescrwoirs: the atmosphet'c%
ocean. soil. and biosphere. We use the dcnau'ic-;ink pulsc-
response function version oC the %cell -tested Bern carbon vide
model [169], as described elaevwhere [51,170].
Specifteally. ar solve nluatious 3-6, 16--17, A-2.2. and A.3 of
joo, et al. [169] using- the .same parameters and assumption,
therein, except that initial (185iY atmospheric CO, is assumed to
be 285.2 ppm [167]. Historical fossil fuel (;02 emission, are Fran
Boden et al. [5]. This Bern model incorporates non -linear ()(call
chemistry feedbacks and CO, fertilization of the terrestrial
biosphere, btu it omits clinlate-carbon feedbacks, e.,g., assuming
static global climate and ocean circulation. Therefore our result,
should be regarded as eonsery atiyc, especially for scenarios with
large emissions.
A pulse of CO, injected into the air deca}'s by half in about 25
vears as CO•, is taken Ill') by the ocean, biosphere and soil, but
nearh one -fifth is still in the atmosphere after 500 }ears ;Fig. lA .
Eventually. over hundreds of millennia. weathering of rocks Neill
deposit all of thi, initial C:O> pulse on the ocean floor as carbonate
sediments [168].
Under equilibriumn conditions a negative GO, pulse, i.c,
artificial extraction and storage of sonic CO2 <unount, decays at
about the same rate as a positive pulse (Fig. -1-N. Thus if it is
decided in the future that CO, must be extracted from the air and
removed from the carbon cycle ;e.g., bt1 storing it underground or
in carbonate bricksj, the impact on atmospheric C,0,2 amount trill
diminish in time. This occurs because earboU is exchanged among
the surface carbon reserwirs as they move lcmard an equilibrium
distribution, and thus, e.g., CO-, out -gassing by the ocean run
offset some of the artificial dravwdo%wn. The CO, extraction
required to reach a given target atmospheric CO, Icyel therefore
depends on the prior emission history and target iimeframe, btu
the amount that must be extracted substantially exceeds the net
reduction of the atmospheric CO, level that Neill be achieved. We
elarifw this matter below by means of specific scenarios for caponrc
of CO,,.
It is instructive to sec ho%w fast atmospheric CO., declines if fossil
fuel emissions are instantle terminated (Fig. M. Halting cnnissions
in 2013 causes CO> to decline to 350 ppin at cenutry's end (Fi,g.
ilBj. A 20 year delay in halting emissions has GO, returning to
350 ppm at about 2300. With it 40 year delaa, CO, does 'not
return to 350 ppm until after 3000. These results shim how,
diflicuh it is to get back to 330 ppm if emissions continue to ,gro%v'
for even a fevw decades.
Thew rettill s epipha i--e the cogent' of iai(irtfirrg emission+ recluihoa [171].
As discussed above, keeping global climate close to the Holocene
range requires a long-term atmospheric CO, leycl of about
350 ppm or less, vwith other climate forcings similar to today's
levels. If emissions reduction had begun in 2005. reduction at
3.51'./year vwould have achieved 350 ppm at 2100. Ncm the
requirement is at least 6""/guar. Delay of emissions reductions
until 2020requires a reduction rate of 15"o/year to achieve
350 ppm in 2100. If %m assume only 50 Gi(I reforestation, and
begin emissions reduction in 2013, the required reduction rate
becomes about 9"./year.
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
Reforestation and Soil Carbon
01' course fossil fuel emission, �611 not .sudden/} terminate.
�\cvcrthcless, it is not impossible to return C:O, to 350 ppm this
century. Reforestation and increase of soil carbon can help draw%'
down atmospheric C:O>. Fossil fuel, account iior --80", of the CO,
increase from preindustrial tune, kith land use/deforestation
accounting for 20";, [1,170,172-173J. Act deforestation to dau is
estimated to be 100 GC (gigatons of carbon) v iih -`50"n
unccrtanni\[172].
Complete restoration of deforested areas is unrealistic. vet 100
GIC carbon dr.tvwdovcu i, couceiwahle because: (ll the hunrun-
c'nhanI'd atnnosphcric GOy lcvcl in<rcasc, carbon uptake by sonic
vegetation and soils, (2) improv°c d agricultural practices can
concert agrieuhure from a GO, ounce into a CO, sink [17if. ;1
bionlass-burning poker plants vwith CO, capture and storage can
contribute to CO, draudo%vn.
Forest and soil storage of 100 GtC. is challenging, btu has other
benefits. Reforestation has been successful in diverse places [175].
Minimum tillage vwith biological nutrient recvcling, as opposed to
plowing and chemical fertilizers, could segtte,tcr 04- 1.2 Gv(;/year
[176] while conser,,ing vwater in soil's, building agricultural resilience
I(,) clunate change, and increasing producti%'ity especially in
smallholder rain -fed agriculture, thereby reducing expansion of
agriculture into forested ccosystenns [177-178]. -Net tropical defor-
estation may have decreased in the past decade [179], but because of
exten,i%e deforestation in earlier decades [170,172-173,180- 181]
there is a large arnouni of land suitable for reforestation [182].
Use of bioenergy to draw down CO-, should employ- feedstocks
from residues, %wastes, and dedicated cnerg crops that do not
compete with food crops, thus avoiding loss of natural ecosystems and
cropland [1,13-185]. Reforestation competes Nvith agricultural land
use; (and needs could decline by reducing use of aninnal products. as
livestock novw consuune more than half of all crops [186].
Our reforestation scenarios assume that todav's net deforesta-
tion rate (--I GtC/year; see [54] swill stay constant until 2020,
then linearIv decrease to zero bN 2030, followed by sinusoidal 100
GtC biospheric carbon storage over 2031-2080. Ahernatiy c
timings do not alter conclusions about the potential to achieve a
given CO, Ieye1 such as 350 ppm.
Emission Reduction Scenarios
A 6"otyear decrease of fossil fuel emissions beginning in 2013,
%with 100 GtC reforestation. achieves it CO,, decline to 350 ppm
near the end of this (con -try Fig. 5A1. Curnulativc fossil fuel
emissions un this scenario are — 129 GW from 2013 to 2050. %with
an additional 11- GtC by 2100. If our asstmied land use changes
occur it decade earlier, G(7, MUMS to 350 ppm seNeral Vcars
earlier; hovyc%cr that has negligible effect on the maximum global
temperature calculated belo%w.
Delaying fossil fuel (-mission cuts until 2020 ;,with 2"o/year
crimssiotns grcNwth in 2012- 20201 causes CO, to remain above
350 ppm (\with associated impacts on climate; until 2300 iFig. 511}.
If reduction, are delaced until 2030 or 2050, (,0, remains above
350 ppm or 400 ppm, respcctivdy, until %well after 2500.
We conclude that it is Urgent that large, long-term emission
reductions begin soon. Even if it 644,/vear reduction rate and 500
GtC are not achieved, it makes a huge difference when reductions
begin. There is no practical justification for N\hc emissions
necessarily must even approach 1000 GW,
Climate Forcings
Atmospheric C(), and other GHGs have been well -measured
for the past half cenmry, allowwing accurate calculation of their
climate forcing. Fhe growth rate of the GHG forcing has declined
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 10 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
rnoderateh since its peak �alucs in the 1980,, as the groecth rate of
GHQ and chlorolluorocarbons has slowed [187]. Annual changes
of'GO,, are highly correlated kith the El Vino cycle Fig. 6). TeeO
strong La Visas in the past five years have depressed C:O.> growth
a, well as the ;,Iobal gassing rate ,Fig. 3). The CO, groecth rate
and warming rate call be expected to increase as we more into the
nest El Vino, with the C0- groecth ahra dl reaching 3 ppmlycar
in mid-2013 [188]. The CO, climate forcing does not increase as
rapidly, as the CO-> amount because of partial saturation of CO
absorption bands [75]. The GHC; forcing is noec increasing at a
rate of almost O. t yV'Im- per decade [187].
Solar in -alliance variations arc sometimes a,SUmed to he the
most likely natural driver of climate change_ Solar irradiance has
been measured from satellites since the laic 1970s 7). 'Fhcsc
data are from a composite of several satellite -measured time series.
Data through 28 February 2003 are from (189] and Physikalisch
NIcteorolo,gisches Obst,n atoriurn 11m s, World Radiation Center.
Sulbsequcnt update is from University of Colorado Solar Radiation
Uimate Experiment (SORE). Data sets are concatenated by
matching the means over the First 12 months of SORCE data.
Nlonthly sunspot numbers (Fig. 7) support the conclusion that the
solar irradiance in the current solar c�rle is sign ificantly lower than
in the three preceding solar cycles. Amplification of the direct solar
forcing is cnueeivable, e.g., through effects on ozone or
atmospheric condensation nuclei. but empirical data place a
factor of two upper limit on the amplification, with the most likely,
forcing in the range 100--12W,(i of the directly, measured solar
irradiance change [64].
Recent reduced solar irradiance (Fig. 7) may have decreased the
forcing over the past decade by about half of the Bill amplitude of
measured irradiance variability, thus yielding a negative forcing of,
say, — 0.12 \V'lm'. This compares ycith a decadal increase of the
GHG forcing that is positive and about three times larger in
magnitude. Thus the solar forcing is not negligible and might
partially account for the slowdown in global warming in the past
decade [17]. 1loecever, we must )I) compare the solar forcing v6th
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
the net of other forcing,, which enhances the importance of solar
change, because the net forcing is smaller than the GHG forcing,
and (21i consider forcing chanties on longer time scales, eyhich
greatly diminishes the importance of solar charge, because solar
variability is mainly oscillatorv.
Human -made tropospheric aerosols, which arise largely from
fossil fuel use, cause a substantial negative forcing- As noted abuse.
two independent analyse, [64,72] yield a total `direct plus indirectr
aerosol forcing in the past decade of about — 1 S N1"l1112. half, the
magnitude of the GHG forcing and opposite in si-m. I1
cinpiriu al aerosol forcing asessment for the past decade i,
con,i,icnt with the climate forcings scenario IFig. 8� that ecc u,c
for the past century in the present and prior studies [61,190].
Supplcnentary Table S I specifics the historical forcings and 'fable
S'' giees several scenarios for future forcings.
Future Climate Forcings
Future global temperature change should depend mainl} on
atmospheric CO,, at least if fossil fuel emissions remain high. 'Thus
to provide the clearest picture of the GO_ effect, eye approximate
the net future change of human -made non -CO, forcings as zero
and eae exclude future changes of natural climate forcings, such as
solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols. Here eve discuss possible
effects of these approximations.
Uncertainties in non -CO,, forcings concern principally, solar,
aerosol and other GHG forcings. judging from the sunspot
numbs rs iFig. 7B and [191]) for the past four centuries, the current
solar cycle is almost as weak as the Dalton Nlinimum of the late
18th century. Conceivably irradiance could decline further to the
level of the Nlaunder N inimum of the late 17th century [192-
193]. For our simulation yve choose an intermediate path between
recoycry to the level before the current solar c}cic and decline to a
still lower level. Specifically, we keep solar irradiance fixed at the
reduced Ieyel of 2010, which is probably not too far off in either
direction. Irradiance in 2010 is about 0.1 W/m- less than the
mean of the prior three solar cycles, a decrease of forcing that
Annual Increase of Monthly Mean Global Atmospheric CO,
Monthly Mean
12—month Running Mean
Linear Change
If,
t� l t I I t tv
l
i t!'tiW I% j ye1 I
1960 1970
1980 1990 2000 2010
J (10.2" 0.
i7-0.2
W
4 1970
1980 1990 2000 2010
,1960
0
/�J f
J -I
Z �1960 1970
1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 6. Annual increase of COz based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory [11881. Prior to 1981 the CO. change
is based on only Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Temperature changes in lower diagram are 12-month running means for the globe and Nino3A area [161.
doi:10.1371/joumal.pone.0081648.g006
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 11 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
� �I`c+t<tl St�(ar trra:#iaru e
VNI1 tlt NOW F
4 SoLtt
r
� i3 43a� i�tttittsn< R$z,tn
1975 11)AV I I')811190 1fp)$ 2t% 1 21liji attltl
(; ?4ltuuhl} Suns(xtt islttttttx r:s
,ttt ___ R1=«titfi, Mk e=
' `In —ttnsl'tl:,tn
J31
Z
tt' ' S
Oftti r 7 Y(,
-
1
1i7 1' Ioi, ]t(,At. 1w; IIXAI 1IJI)i� It)III
Figure 7. Solar irradiance and sunspot number in the era of satellite data (see text). Left scale is the energy passing through an area
perpendicular to Sun -Earth line. Averaged over Earth's surface the absorbed solar energy is --240 W(m2, so the full amplitude of measured solar
variability is —0.25 Wtm2.
doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g007
ticoutd be restored be the CO_ increase within 3 1 years at its
current growth rate. Extensive simulations [17,1911 confirm that
the effect of'solar variability is small compared vdth GHGs if CO
emissions continue at a high level. However, solar forcing can
allcct the magnitude and detection of near -term warming. Also, if
rapidl dectining GHG emissions are achieved, changes of solar
forcing v.ill become relatively more important -
.Aerosols present a larger uncertainty. Expectations of decreases
in large source regions such as China [195] mac be counteracted
h} aerosol incteases other places as global population continues to
increase. Our assumption of unchanging human -made aerosols
could be substantiallc off in either direction. For the sake of
interpreting on -,going and future climate chant,(: it is highl}
desirable to obtain precise monitoring of the global aerosol forcing
[73].
.A Net Forcing
T�-T---r-r
I
PW-Jr
t - Siuu:,a r u ith 611 - z cu
--- Sinm2aa x. ,t-ith _�Oc'vr cur_
E
4r
_I
-Non-CO, GHG forcing has continued to increase at it slow rate
since 1995 (Pig. 6 in [6 F]j. A desire to constrain climate change
ma} help reduce emissions of these gases in the future. However, it
%%ill be dillicult to prevent or full% offset positive forcing from
increasing N,O, as its largest source i� associated \pith food
production and the world's population is continuing to rise.
On the other hand, nee are also probabl}underestimating a
negative aerosol forcing, e.g., because we have not inchtded future
volcanic aerosols. Given the absence of large volcanic eruptions in
the past two decades (the last one being Mount Pinatubo in 1991),
multiple volcanic eruptions would cause it cooling tendene} [196]
and reduce heat storage in the ocean [197].
Overall. cce expect the errors due to our simple approximation
of non -CO) forcing, to be partially oIl=seeing. Specific
alI we
have likely underestimated it positirc forcing by non -CO, GHGs,
while also likely underestimating a negative aerosol forcing.
Net Forcing
t PAUEu-j--ion�Until
2050 t:)cu 5ao,'t. {tit
_10,0 then 5 o'er cut-
--=C�-'C then Caiz
- — _s0_u Lhen � o %.f cute
t35� lu�"n 15f3
Figure S. Climate forcings employed in our six main scenarios. Forcings through 2010 are as in [64].
doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g008
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 12 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Notc that muurtainty in forcing., is partk obviated via the focus
on Earth's energy imbalance in our analy�is_ The planet's energy
imbalance is an integrative quantity that is especially useful for a
case in which some of, the Corcings are uncertain or tmmeasured.
Forth's mr<tsurcd euet;gv imbalance includes the ef(ccts of all
(brcings, whether they are measured or not.
Simulations of Future Global Temperature
We calculate global temperature change for a gic ern CO ,
scenario usin'; a climate response function (fable S3) that
accurate[' rel,licate, results front a global climate model with
sensitivity 3 C for doubled CO, [6l]. A best estimate of climate
sensitivity close to 3 C for doubled CO-, has been inferred from
paleoclimate data [51-52]. This empirical climate sensitiviu is
generally con istent etith that of global climate models [1], btu the
empirical apl.iroaeh makes the inferred high sensitivity more
certain and the quantitative evaluation more precise. Because this
climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data oil hots Earth
responded to past changes of boundary conclitions, including
atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil
fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate
models.
The detailed temporal and geographical response of the climate
system to the rapid human -made change of climate forcings is not
well -constrained by empirical data, because there is no faithful
palcoclimate ;analog. Thus climate models necessarily play an
important role in assessing practical implications of climate
change Nevertheless, it is possible to dram important conclusions
with transparent computations. A simple response function
(Green's funs ion) calculation [6k] yields an estimate of global
mean temperature change in responsc to a specified time series for
global climate forcing. "['his approach accounts for the defaced
response of the climate system caused by the large thermal inertia
of the ocean, yielding a global mean temporal response in close
accord with that obtained from global climate models.
Tables S1 and S2 in Supporting Information give the forcings
rce employ and '['able S3 gives the climate response function for
our Green's function calculation, defined by equation 2 of [6 j.
The Green's function is driven by the net forcing, which, raith the
response function, is sufficient information for our results to be
reproduced. Howceer, rce also include the individual forcings in
Table S1, in case researchers wish to replace specific forchigs or
use theta for other purposes.
Simulated global temperature (Fig. 9) is for CO, scenarios of
Fig. 5. Peak global warming i, ---1.1'C, declining to less than I C
by mid-centsv}, if CO, emissions are reduced 6" o/y ear beginning
in 2013. In contrast, wanting reaches 1.5'C and stays above I C
until after 2400 if emissions continue to increase nail 2030, even
though Fossil fuel emit -scions are phased out rapidly (.i °/pear) after
2030 and 100 GtC reforestation occurs during 2030-2080. If
emissions continue to increase until 2050, simulated vyarniing
exceeds 2-C well into the 22°C1 oastv\_
Increased global temperature persists for many centuries after
the climate forcing declines, because of the thermal inertia of the
ocean [198], Some temperature reduction is possible if the climate
forcing is reduced rapidly, before heat has penetrated into the
deeper ocean. Cooling by a fern tenths of it degree tit Fig. 9 is a
result mainly of the 100 GtC biospheric uptake of C;O_ during
2030--2080. Note the longevity of the warming, especially if
emissions reduction is as slow as 2°iolycar, which might be
considered to be a rapid rate of reduction.
The temporal response of the real world to ills human -made
climate forenig could be more complex than suggested by a simple
response function calculation, especially if rapid emissions growth
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
continues, yielding all unprecedented climate forcing scenario. For
example, if ice sheet mass loss becomes rapid, it is conceivable that
the cold fresh water added to the ocean could cause regional
surface cooling [199]. perhaps even at a point vthen ,ca level rise
has only reaches) it level of the order of it meter [200]. However,
any uncertainty in the surface thermal response this century due to
such phenomena has lilt[(- effect on our estimate of the dangerous
Ievcl of emissions. The long- lifetime of the fossil fuel carbon in the
elintate system and the persistence of ocean warming for millennia
[201] provide sufficient time for the climate system to achieve lull
response to the fast feedback processes included in the 3 C'; climate
scrnsii hire.
Indeed, the long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon in the clunate
System and persistence of the ocean rearming ensure that "slow"
feedbacks, such av, ice sheet disintegruion, changes of the global
vegetation dkIrlbntion, melting ofpermafrost, and possible release
of methane from methane hydrates on continental shehr,, woulcl
also have time to come into play- Given the unprecedented
rapidity of the human -made climate forcing, it is difhcuh to
establish hole soon dote feedbacks will become important, but
ctcarlc slow feedbacks should be considered in assessing the
"dangerous" level of global warming, as discussed in the newt
Section.
Danger of Initiating Uncontrollable Climate
Change
Our calculated global rearming as a function of CO_ amount is
based on equilibrium climate. sensitiv$y 3'C for doubled CO,,.
That is the central climate sensitivity estimate from climate models
[1], and it is consistent rcith climate sensitivity inferred from
Earth's climate history [51-52]_ 1lowever, this climate sensitivity
includes oniti the effects of Past feedbacks of the climate system,
such as water vapor, cloud,, aerosols, and sea ice. Slow feedbacks,
such as change of ice sheet area and climate -driven changes of
greenhouse gases, are not included.
Slow Climate Feedbacks and Irreversible Climate Change
Excluding slow feedbacks ryas appropriate for simulations of the
past century, because rce know the ice sheets were stable then and
our climate simulations used observed greenhouse gas amounts
that included any contribution from slow feedbacks. Hovyever, we
must include slow feedbacks in projections of warming for the 2 1 "
century and beyond. Slow feedbacks are important because they
aflect climate sensitivity and because their instigation is related to
the danger of passing "points of no return", beyond which
irreversible consequences become inevitable. out of hUrnanity'S
control.
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets present the danger of
change with consequences that are irreversible on time scales
important to society [1]. These ice sheets required millennia to
grow to their present sizes. If ice sheet disintegration reaches a
point such that the dynamics and momentum of the process take
over, at that point reducing greenhouse gases may be unable to
prevent major ice sheet mass loss, sea level rise of many meters,
and worldwicle loss of coastal cities - a consequence that is
irreversible for practical purposes. Interactions between the ocean
and ice sheets are particularly important in determining ice sheet
changes, as a warming ocean can melt the ice shelves, the tongues
of ice that extend from the ice sheets into the ocean and buttress
the large land -based ice sheets [92,202 203]_ Paleoclimate data for
sea level change indicate that sea Icvcl changed at rates of the
order of a meter per century [81 83], even at times when ill( -
forcing, driving climate change were far ryeaker than the human -
PROS ONE I www.plosone.org 13 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
A Global Tcniperatare for CO Scrn:uio, of Fit 5A B Global TrmpcTaturc for CO Scmarios of Fry 5B
Bs.tPeti�tt=f65Q-f9_�
.�i Ln1ll 3 SQt Sift) 0 .T rS[„
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.. __.. -055 itiet ±%'i cat:
- '- '020 ttes : a- vi ce:_
they 5% rI ca:.
21000 `150 " 11 f C, 2 5S
Figure 9. Simulated global temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean for CO2 scenarios of Figure S.
doi:10.1371 /journa I.pone.0081648.g009
made forcing. Thus, because ocean warming is persistent for
centuries, there is a danger that large irreversible change could be
initiated by excessive ocean %%arming.
Paleoclimatc data are not as helpful for defining the likely rate of
sea level rise in coming decades, because there is no know n case of
gro%ith of a positive (warming) climate forcing as rapid as the
anthropogenic change. The potential for unstable ice sheet
disintegration is contrmci-sial, Nith opinion varying from likely
stability of even the (marine) Wcst Antarctic ice sheet [94] to likel
rapid non -linear response extending- up to multi meter sea level
rise [97-98]. Data for the modern rate of annual ice sheet mass
changes indicate an accelerating rate of mass loss consistent with a
mass loss doubling time oC a decade or less IFig. 10)_ However, we
do not know the functional forme of ice sheet response to a large
persistent climate forcing. Longer records are needed for empirical
assessment of this ostensibly nonlinear behavior.
Greenhouse gas amounts in the atmosphere, most important/
CO, and CHs, cha nge in response to climate change, i.e., as a
feedback, in addition to the unnfediate gas changes from human -
caused emissions. As the ocean \\arms, for example, it releases
CO_ to the atmosphere, with one principal mechanism being the
simple fact that the solubility of CO , decreases as the water
temperature rises [204]. We also include in the category of slow
feedbacks the global warming spikes, or "hyperthermals", that
have occurred a number of times in Earth's history during the
course of slower global warming trends. The mechanisms behind
Giecuhtrid Ice Alas Change Fate
� t }
•' Y GTa�aucut
`ie ��'` irtnu ourtx incsfir.�d ,, _
1 _
1
10-agar J+?ub;u:� ::n.c
.._.�. J-.'fat d+J lt:11?tknK •�.
these hvperthernfals are poorl}understood. as discussed below,
but they are characterized by the injection into the surface climate
sy:stem of a large amount of carbon in the Conn of CHI and/or
Cn, on the time scale of a millennium [205-207]. The average
rate of injection of carbon into the climate sv:stern during these
h}perthermal, vvas shiner than the present human -made injection
Of fossil fuel carbon, yet it was faster than the time scale for
removal of carbon from the surface reser%oirs via the vyeathering
process [3,208]. vyhich is tens to hundreds of thousands of }ears.
Methane hydrates - methane molecules trapped in frozen water
molecule cage, in tundra and on continental shelves - and organic
matter such as peat locked in frozen soils (permafrosti are likely
mechanisms in the past h,perthen»als, and they provide another
climate feedback with the potential to amplif} global warming if
large scale thaviing occurs [209-210]. Palcoelimate data reveal
instances of rapid global warning as much as 5-6-C, as a sudden
additional warming spike during a longer period of gradual
warmring [see Text S1]. The candidates for the carbon injected
into the climate system during those warnings are methane
fndrates on continental shelves destabilized by sea floor warming
[211] and carbon rcicscd from frozen soils [212]. As for the
present, there are reports of methane release from thawing
permafrost on land [213] and from sea-bed methane hydrate
deposits [214]. but amounts so far arc small and the data are
snapshots that do not prove that there is as yet a temporal increase
of emissions.
E; West Antarctica Ice Mass Churge Rate
2adv atnnl n
cha,142 n
.��•.. CaTnp;'+:itc tLTta`...
_00 - - - Lutr x fit
--- 1J-_eu donb=sss- tuz c
i-ye1T t—
:Cv'
IS`q'_ li"A" ..... :;;nJ" :D1'_ - ,. _ !ec•^ _C'�_ :'Xr- `nt_
Figure 10. Annual Greenland and West Antarctic ice mass changes as estimated via alternative methods. Data were read from Figure 4
of Shepherd et al. [23] and averaged over the available records.
doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0081648.g010
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 14 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
There is it 'possibility of rapid methane hydrate or permafrost
emissions in response to warming, but that risk is largely
unquantified 121,51. The time needed to destabilize large methane
hydrate deposits in deep sediments is liken millennia [215].
Sniallci but still large methane hydrate amount, below shallow
v%eters as in the Arctic Ocean arc more vulnerable: the inctlhane
mac oxidize to CO.a in the water, but it wi11 still add to the long-
term burden of CO3, in the carbon cycle 'Terrestrial permafrost
emissions of CIi4 and CO. likely can occur on it time scale of a
fcv% decades to se%cral centurie, ifglobal v%arming continue. [215].
Thee time scale, are %%ithin the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2.
and thus the,,, Grdback, must be considered ill estimating the
dangerous level of global warning. Because human -made
warming is more rapid than natural long-term v%armings in the
past, there is concern that methane hydrate or peat feedbacks
could be more rapid than the feedback, that exist in the
paleoclimate record.
Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate
data can proeicle estimate, of the amplification of climate
sensitivity caused be slo%% feedbacks, excluding the singular
mechanisms that caused the hypertherinal events. Model studies
for climate change between the Holocene and the Pliocene, when
Earth vwas about 3'C warmer, find that sloe% feedbacks due to
changes of ice sheets and vegetation cover amplified the fast
lcedback climate response by 30 ,50% [216]. These same slowy
feedbacks are estimated to amplify climate sensitivity by almost a
furor of two for the climate change between the Holocene and the
nearly ice -free climate state that existed 35 million years ago [o#].
Implication for Carbon Emissions Target
Evidence presented under Climate Impacts above makes clear
that 2 'C global v%arming would have consequences that can be
described as disastrous. Multiple studies [12,198,201] shoe% that
the warming %could be very long lasting. The paleoclimate record
and changes underway in the Arctic and on the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets with only today's warming imply that sea level
rise of several meters could be expected. Increased climate
extremes, already apparent at 0.8 C %%arming [ [6], would be
more severe. Coral reefs and associated species, already stressed
with current conditions [10], v%ould be decimated by increased
acidification, temperature and sea level rise. More generally,
humanity and nature, the modern %%orld a, %%c know it, is adapted
to the Holocene climate that has existed more than 10,000 years.
Warming of 1 C relative to 1881)-1920 keeps global temperature
close to the Holocene range, but warming of 2'C, to at least the
Eemian leycl, could cause major dislocations for civilization.
Hovwever, distinctions between pathways aimed at -1 C and
2 C %%arming are much greater and more fundamental than the
numbers I C and 2'C themselves might suggest. These funda-
mental distinctions make scenarios with 2'C or more global
%warrnin,g far more dangerous; so dangerous, we suggest, that
aiming for the 2 C pathway %could be foolhardy.
First, most climate simulations, including ours above and those
of IPCC [1], do not include slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice
sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases from
thawing tundra. "These exclusions are reasonable for it I C
scenario, because ,global temperature barely rises out of the
Holocene range and then begins to subside. In contrast, global
warming of2�C or more is likely to bring slow feedbacks into play.
Indeed, it is slow% feedbacks that cause long-term climate sensitivity
to be high in the empirical paleoclimate record [5I-52]. `The
lifetime of fossil fuel COz in the climate system is so long that it
must be assumed that these slow feedbacks v%ill occur if
temperature rises well above the Holocene range.
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
Second, scenarios wrath 2 C or more warming ncccssartle rrnph
expansion of fossil fuel, into sources that arc harder to get at.
requiring ,greater energy using extraction techniques that are
increasingly invasive, destructive and polluting. Fossil fuel
emissions through 2012 total --370 GtC (Fig. 21. If subsequent
emissions decrease 6°ol%car. additional emissions are --1:30 GtC,
for a total -500 GiC fossil fuel emissions. This H0 GtC can be
obtained mainly from the easih extracted conventional oil and as
rescrwes (Fig. 21, %%ith coal use rapidly phased out and uncom en-
tional fossil fuels left in the ground. fin contrast, 2'C: scenario, hake
total emissions of the order of 1000 GtC. The required additional
fossil fuct, %will imohc exploitation of tar sanck, tar shale,
hydrolraeking for oil and gas, coal mining, drilling in the :`arctic,
Arnazon, deep ocean. and other remote regions, and possibly
exploitation of methane hydrates. Thus 2'C .scenarios result in
more CO, per unit useable energ> . release of substantial CII, yia
the [Wining process and gas transportation, and release of'(:( )2 and
other gases via destruction of forest "overburden" to extract
subterranean fossil fuels.
'Third. kith our -1 C scenario it is more likely that the
biosphere and soil mill be able to sequester a substantial portion of
the anthropogenic fossil fuel CO, carbon than in the case of 2'C
or more global ecarming. Empirical data for the CO, "airborne
fraction", the ratio of observed atmospheric CO„ increase divided
by fossil fuel CO, emissions. show that almost half of the emissions
is being taken up by surface (terrestrial and ocean carbon
reservoirs [t87], despite a substantial but poorh measured
contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and
agricuhure) to airborne C0,2 [179,216]. Indeed, uptake of' CO,
by surface reservoirs has at least kept pace with the rapid growth of
emissions [187]. Increased uptake in the past decade may be a
consequence of a reduced rate of deforestation [217] and
fertilization of the biosphere by atmospheric CO, and nitrogen
deposition [187]. With the stable climate of the --1 C scenario it is
plausible that major efrorts in reforestation and innproced
agricultural practices [15,173,175-177], with appropriate support
provided to developing countries, could take up an amount of
carbon comparable to the 100 GiC in our -1 -C scenario. On the
other hand, with warming of 2'C or more, carbon cycle feedbacks
are expected to lead to substantial additional atmospheric CO_
[218-219], perhaps even mailing the Amazon rainforest it source
of CO,, [219-220].
Fourth, a scenario that slows and then reverses global %warming
makes it possible to reduce other greenhouse gases by reducing
their sources [75,221]. "The most important of these gases is Cfll,
vwhose reduction in turn reduces tropospheric 03 and it
1120. In contrast, chemistry modeling and paleoclimate records
[222] show that trace gases increase with global warming, making
it unlikely that overall aunospheric C114 will decrease even if a
decrease is achieccd in anthropogenic CII} sources. Reduction of
the amount of atmospheric CHk and related ,gases is needed to
counterbalance expected forcing from increasing V_O and
decreasing sulfate aerosols.
tiow let its compare the I C (500 GtC fossil fuel emissions) and
the 2C (1000 GtC fossil fuel emissions,) scenarios. Global
temperature in 2100 v%ould be close to I ,C in the 500 GtC
scenario, and it is less than 1 C if 100 GtC uptake of carbon by the
biosphere and soil is achieved via improved agricultural and
forestry practices (Pig. 9). In contrast, the 1000 GtC scenario,
although nominally designed to yield a fast -feedback climate
response of 2 C, would yield a larger e%cntital warming because
of.slov% feedbacks, probably at least 3 C.
P.OS ONE I w%vw.plosone.org 15 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Danger of Uncontrollable Consequences
Inertia of the climate system reduces the near -term impact oI-
human-made climate forcings, but that inertia is not necessarily
our friend. One implication of the inertia is that climate impacts
"in the pipeline- ma} be much greater than the impacts that %ke
presently observe. SloN% climate feedbacks add further danger of
climate change running out of humanity's control. The respon,r
time of these slow feedbacks is uncertain, but there is evidence that
some of these feedbacks already arc under%%ay, at least to a minor
degree Palcoclitnate data shove that o❑ cenniry and millennial
time scales the Simv feedbacks are prcdominatelc ampliliing
feedbacks.
The inertia of enet�gy systrm infrastructure, i.e., the tune
required to replace fossil fuel energy systems. ykill make it
exceedingly difficult to avoid it level of atmospheric C:02 that
would eeentualk ha%e highly undesirable conSequeaccs. The
danger of uncontrollable and irreversible consequences necessarih
raises the question ofwhetherit is feasible to extract CO, from the
atmosphere on a large enough scale to affect climate change.
Carbon Extraction
We have shove❑ that extraordinarily rapid emission reductions
are needed to stay close to the I'C' scenario. In absence of
extraordinary actions, it is likely that gro%king climate clisruptions
will lead to a surge o£ interest in `geo-engnreering11 designed to
minimize human -made climate change [223]. Such efforts must
remove atmospheric CO_, if they are to address direct CO, efl'ects
such as ocean acidification as %cell as climate change Schemes
such as adding sulfuric acid aerosols to the stratosphere to re[lect
sunlight [?24], an attempt to mask one pollutant v%ith another, is a
temporary band -aid for it problem that %%ill last Cor millennia;
besides it fails to address ocean acidification and ma% have other
unintended consequences [995].
Potential for Carbon Extraction
At present there are no proven technologies capable of large-
scale air capture of CO,. It has been suggested that, with strong
research and development support and industrial scale pilot
projects sustained over decades, costs as lo%k as---5500/tC: may be
achievable [226]. Thermodynamic constraints [2271 suggest that
this cost estimate may be (o%v. An assessment by the American
Physical Society [2281 argues that the lo%%est eurrenth acliiecablc
cost, using existing approaches, is much greater i$600f1(:O, or
$2200/t(:).
The cost of capturing 50 ppm of COS, at. $500/tC: (---S135/
tCO,), is —$50 trillion (I ppm C0= is —2.12 GW), but more than
5200 trillion for the price estimate of the American Physical
Society study. Nforeover, the resulting atmospheric CO, reduction
will ultimately be less than 50 ppm for the reasons discussed
above. For example, let it., consider the scenario of Fig. 5B in
which emissions continue to increase until 2030 before decreasing
at 5°„/year — this scenario yields atmospheric CO of [10 ppm in
2100. Using our carbon cycle model we f w calculate that ie extract
100 ppm of CO�, from the air over the period 2030 2100
(10/7 ppm per year), say storing that C0,2 in carbonate bricks. the
atmospheric CO_ amount in 2100 will be reduced 52 ppm to
358 ppm, i.e., the reduction of airborne CO, is about half of the
amount extracted from the air and stored. The estimated cost of
this 52 ppm C;O_ reduction is 5100 100 trillion.
The cost of CO, capture and storage conceivably may decline
in the future. Yet the practicality ofcarrying out such a program
with alacrity in response to a climate emergency is dubious. Thus
it mac be appropriate to add a CO, removal cost to the current
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
price of fossil fuels, vkhich v%ould both reduce ongoing emissions
and provide resources for future cleanup.
Responsibility for Carbon Extraction
We Locus on fossil fuel carbon, because of its long lifetime in the
carbon cycle. Reversing the effect, of deforestation is also
important and there will need to he incentives to achieve increased
carbon storage in the biosphere and soil, but the crucial
requirement novv is to limit the amount of' fossil fuel carbon in
the air.
The high cost of carbon extraction naturalh raises the question
of responsibility Cor excess fi)-il Curl CO, in the air. China has the
largest M, emissions today (Fig. l IAi, but the global %%arming
effect is clos(-(% proportional to cumulative emissions [190]. The
United States is responsible for about one -quarter of cutmulative
emission,, %kith China next at about 10°,, iFig. I1W, Cumulative
responsibilities change rather slowly iconhpare Fig. 10 of 190).
Estimated per capita emissions ,Fig_ 12, arc based on population
estimates for 2009-201 1.
1"ariuu1 forutulac might be devised to assign costs of CO. air
capture, should removal prove essential for maintaining acceptable
climate. For the sake of estimating the potential cost, let it, as.snne
that it proves necessary to extract 100 ppm of CO, (yielding a
reduction of airborne CO , of about 50 ppm) and let its assign each
country the responsibility to clean up its fraction of cumulative
emissions. Assuniing it cost of$500/tC (- $135/tCO,) yields a cost
of $28 trillion for the United Stairs, about $90,000 per individual.
Costs would be slightly higher Cor a UK citizen, but less for other
nations (Fig. 1213j.
Cost of C0_> capture might decline, but the cost estimate used is
more than a factor of four .smaller than estimated be the American
Physical Society [228] and 50 ppm is only a moderate reduction.
The cost should also include safe permanent disposal of the
captured CO, %khich is a substantial mass. For the sake of scaling
the task, note that one GW, made into carbonate bricks, %eould
produce the volume of —3000 Empire State buildings or --1200
Great P}ramids of Giza. Thus the 26 ppm assigned to the United
States, if made into carbonate bricks, would be equivalent to the
stone: in 165,000 Empire State buildings or 66,000 Great Pvrarnicl.s
of Giza. This is not intended as it practical suggestion: carbonate
bricks are not a good building material, and the transport and
construction costs would be additional.
The point of'this graphic detail is to make clear the magnitude
of the cleanup task and potential costs, if fossil fuel emissions
continue unabated. more useful and economic vkays of removing
GO, mac be devised with the incentive of a sufficient carbon price.
For example, a .stream of pure CM becomes available for capture
and storage if biomass is used as the fuel for power plants or as
feedstock Cor production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. Such clean
energy schemes and improved agricultural and forestry practices
are likely to be more economic than direct air capture cl'(10- but
they must be carefully designed to minimize undesirable impacts
and the amount of'CO., that can be extracted on the time Scale of
decades %%ill be limited, thus emphasizing the need to Limit the
magnitude of the cleanup task.
Policy Implications
Human -made climate change concerns physical sciences, but
leads to implications for policy and politics. Conclusions from the
physical Sciences, such as the rapidity with %khieh emissions must
be reduced to avoid obviously unacceptable consequences and the
long lag between emissions and consequences- lead to implications
in social sciences, including economics. law and ethics. Intergov-
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 16 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
A 2012 Annual Emissions (9.6 Gt('/yr)
Gtdia G 3"ti
_..m
c�
r "i ryJ _o
Rest of x^: i : , J, �a
Asia
Pacific
8.2%
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
13 1751-2012 Cumulative Emissions (384 GtC)
Figure 11. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions. (A) 2012 emissions by source region, and (B) cumulative 1751-2012 emissions. Results are an update of Fig.
10 of [190] using data from [5].
doi:10.1371(journa I.pone.0081648.g011
ernmental climate assessments [1,1I1 purposely are not police
prescriptive. Y,-t there is also merit in analysis and discussion of the
full topic through the objective lens of seieuc e, i.e., "connecting the
dots" all the way to policy implications.
Energy and Carbon Pathways: A Fork in the Road
The industrial revolution began with wood being replaced by
coal as the primary energy source Coal provided more
concentrated energy, and thus was more mobile and effective.
We shot data for the United States (Fig. 13) because of the
availability of a long data record that includes wood [229]. More
limited global records yield a similar picture [Fig. I f], the largest
difference being global coal now at --30"0 compared kith —20"a
in the United States. Economic progress and wealth generation
were further .spurred in the twentieth century by expansion into
liquid and gaseous fossil fuels, oil and gas being transported and
burned more readily than coal. Only in the latter part of the
tvticnticth century did it become clear that long-lived combustion
products from fossit fuels posed a global climate threat, as formally
acknowledged in the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate
Change [6]. However, efTorts to slow emissions of the principal
atmospheric gas driving climate change, CO.,, have been
ineffectual so far (Fig. 1).
Consequently, at present, as the most easily extracted oil and
gas reserves are being depleted, \ve stand at a fork in the road to
our energti and carbon future. Will we now feed our energy needs
by pursuing difficult to extract fossil fuels, or will we pursue energti
policies that phase out carbon emissions, moving on to the post
fossil fuel era as rapidly as practical.'
This is not the first fork encountered Most nations agreed to the
Franiervork Convention on Climatc Change in 1992 [6]. Imagine
if a bloc of countries favoring action had agreed on a common
gradually rising carbon fee collected within each of country at
domestic mines and ports of entry. Such nations might place
equivalent border duties on products from nations not having a
carbon fee and theV could rebate fees to their domestic industry ('or
export products to nations without an equivalent carbon fee. The
legality of such a border tax adjustment under international trade
law is untested, but is considered to be plausibly consistent with
trade principles [230]. As the carbon fee gradually rose and as
additional nations, for their own benefit, joined this bloc of
nations, development of carbon -free energies and energy e[Ticiencv
%vould have been spurred. If the carbon fee had begun in 1995, w c
A 2012 Per Capita Emissions (tons Carboniyriperson) fi 1751-2012 Cumulative Emissions (tons Carbon person)
4 300
317-171 global 2OU
globul
_...au
..... I (}0 mea n
I
0LA 11
0 s
U.S. India Japan U.K. Ault. AsPac S.C.Am U.S. India Japan U.K. Aus'L AsPac S.C.Ant
China Russia Germany Canada EUr.Eur. M.East Africa China Russia German,, Canada Eur.Eur. M.East Africa
Figure 12. Per capita fossil fuel CO. emissions. Countries, regions and data sources are the same as in Fig. 11, Horizontal lines are the global
mean and multiples of the global mean.
doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0081648.g012
PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 17 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
US, Etler-, C'onsmiiption by Source
100
80
60
v
�40
20
0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Figure 13. United States energy consumption [229].
doi:10.1371 fjournal.pone.0081648.g013
calculate that global emissions would have needed to decline
2.1 °%./year to limit cumulative fossil fuel emissions to 500 Gt(:. A
start date of 2005 would have required a reduction oC3.5°�I}car
for the same resuh.
The task faced mcla, is more difficult. Emissions reduction of
G°o/year and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soils are
needed to get CIO, back to 3,30 ppm, the approximate require-
ment for restoring the phmct's energy balance and stabilizing
climate this et-tnturc. Such a path%ray is exceedingly difficult to
achieve, given the current x6cicspread absence of policies to drive
rapid movement to carbon -free energies and the lifetime of encrgn
infrastructure in place_
Yet we suggest that a pathwa, is still conceivable that could
restore planetary energy balance on the eemury time scale. That
path requires policies that spur technology development and
provide economic incentives for consumers and businesses such
that social tipping points are reaches) ,where consumers mote
rapidly to ever, conservation and love carbon energies. Moderate
overshoot of required atmospheric CO_ levels can possible be
counteracted via uhcenti,es for actions that snore -or -less naturalh
sequester carbon. Developed countries, responsible for most of the
execs. C.O., in the air might finance extensi,c efforts in de,cloping
countries to sequester carbon in the soil and in forest regrowth on
marginal lands as described above. Burning sustainabl, designed
tl
• 1
J
. 40
01
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
biolucls in power plants; Gvith the CO captured and sequestered,
would also help dray, dohcn atmospheric GO_. This patlmay
would need to be taken soon, as the magnitude of such carbon
extractions is likch limited and thus not a solution to unfettered
fossil fuel use.
The alternative pathway, which the hvorld seems to be on now,
is continued extraction of all fossil fuels, including development of
uncom entional fossil fuels such as tar sands, tar shale, hvdro-
(racking to extract oil and gas, and exploitation of methane
hydrates. if that path iwith 24,blvear gro,vth) (ontinue; for 20
vcars and is then follo,�ed by 3%/year emission reduction from
2033 to 21,)0. ticc find that fossil fuel emissions in 2150 ,could total
1022 Gt(:. Extraction of the excess GO., from the air in this case
would be very expensi, e and perhaps implausible, and warming of
the ocean and resulting climate impacts hvould be practicallti
irreversible.
Economic Implications: Need for a Carbon Fee
The implication is that the world must move rapidly to carbon -
free energies and cncrgn efficiency. /caving most remaining fossil
fuels in the ground, if climate is to be kept (-lost- to the Holocene
range and climate disasters averted. Is rapid change possible:'
Global Etler(-gv Consumption by Source Excluding Wood
850 1900 1950 2000
Figure 14. World energy consumption for indicated fuels, which excludes wood [4].
doi:10.1371 fjournal.pone.0081648.g014
Ind + 3�tv
,Othc%mal
oin"t;
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 18 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
The potential for rapid change cam be shop n b% examples. A
basic requirement for phasing dov%n fossil fuel emissions is
abundant carbon -free electricity, which is the most rapidly
grow%in,g form of energy and also has the potential to provide
ener,g,} Cor transportation and heating of' buildings. In one decade
i1977-1987), Prance increased its nuclear power production 15-
Cold, kith the nuclear portion ('its clectricit% increasing from 8"(,
to 70q�, [231]. In one decade (2001 2011) Germanv increased the
non -hydroelectric reno-wahle energy portion of its electricity from
P,) to 19"i,, with fossil fuels decreasing from 63".a to 61"=o
dtvdroclectric decreased from +°,) to 3"„ and nuclear powwer
decreased from ` 0"„ to 18 ' , [231].
Given the huge task of replacing fossil fitels, contributions arc
surely required from energy efficiency, renex%able energies, and
nuclear power, kith the mix depending on local preferences.
Rencirabl , energy and nuclear poker have been limited in part by
technical challenges. tiuclear power faces persistent concerns
about safety, nuclear waste, and potential weapons proliferation,
despite past contributions to mortality prevention and climate
change mitigation [232]. Most renev%able energies tap difhrse
intermittent sources often at a distance Front the user population,
thus requiring large-scale energy storage and transport. Dcyelop-
ing technologies can ameliorate these issues, as discussed below.
However, apparent cost is the constraint that prevents nuclear and
renewable energies from Cully supplanting fossil fuel electricity
generation.
Transition to a post-Coa,il fuel world oC clean energies v%ill not
occur as long as fossil fuels appear to the investor and consumer to
Ile the cheapest energy. Fossil Fuels are cheap only because they do
not pay their costs to society and receive large direct and indirect
subsidies [233]. Air and vcater pollution front Fossil fuel extraction
and use have high costs in human health, food production, and
natural ecosystems, killing more than 1,000,000 people per, year
and affecting the health of billions of people [232,234], with costs
borne by the public. Costs of climate change and ocean
acidification, already substantial and expected to grove consider-
ably [26,235], also are borne by the public, espccially by young
people and Future generations.
Thus the essential underlying policy, albeit not sufficient, is for
emissions of CO" to come with a price that allows these costs to be
internalized within the economics of energy use. Because so much
energy is used through expensive capual stock, the price should
rise in a predictable way to enable people and businesses to
efficicnily adjust lifestyles and investments to minimize costs.
Reasons Cor preference of a carbon fee or tax over cap -and -trade
include the former's simplicity and relative ease of becoming
global [236]. A near -global carbon tax ytight be achieved, e.g.. via
a bi-lateral agreement between China and the United States, the
greatest emitters, with a border duty unposed on products from
nations v%ithout a carbon tax, which would provide it strong
incentive for other nations to impose an equivalent carbon tax.
The suggestion of a carbon fee collected front fossil fuel companies
with all revenues distributed to the public on a per capita basis
[237] has receivec) at least limited support [238].
Economic analyses indicate that a carbon price hilly incorpo-
rating environmental and climate damage would be high [239].
The cost of climate change is uncertain to it factor of 10 or more
and could be as high as ---81000/tCO [233,240]_ G1'ltile the
imposition of such a high price on carbon emissions is outside the
realm ofshort-term political feasibility, a price oCthat magnitude is
not required to engender a large change in emissions trajectory.
An economic analysis indicates that a tax beginning at S15/
tCU, and rising S10/tCO., each year woulcl reduce emissions in
the U.S. by 30°a within 10 years [241]. Such a reduction is more
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
than 10 times as great as the carbon content oFtar sands oil carried
by the proposed keystone `YE pipeline ,830,000 barrels/(1oci
[2 121. Reduced oil demand would be ncarlt six times the pipeline
capacity 1211], thus the carbon fee is far more c1lectice than the
proposed pipeline.
A rising carbon fee is the sine qua non for fossil Cuel phase out, but
not enough by itself. Investment is needed in RI)&I) research.
development and demonstration) to help renevyahIc energies and
nuclear powwer overcome obstacles limiting their conuibutions.
Interatittcncy of solar and vwind power can be alleviated with
advancers in cnerg} storage. lose -loss smart electric grids, and
electrical vrhicics interacting with the grid. Most oFtodac"s uucicar
poww(,r plants have half -century -old technology %ynth light -neater
reactors [2 H] Wilizing less than I",) of' the energy in the nuclear
Fuel and leaving unused fuel as long -lined nuclear "waste,.
requiring sequestration for millennia. Modern light -water reactors
can employ cotn�ectiyc cooling to eliminate the need to] external
cooling in the event of an anomaly such as an carthquakc.
However, the long-term future of nuclear power will cruploy `'Cast"
reactors, which utilize —99`�, of the nuclear fuel and can "burn"
nuclear s%aste and excess weapons material [213]. It should be
possible to reduce the cost of nuclear power via modular standard
reactor design, bill governments need to provide a regulator\
environment that supports timely construction of approved
designs. 1W&D on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology
IS needed, especially given our conclusion that the current
atmospheric CO,, level is already in the dangerous zone, but
continuing issues with CGS technology- [7,211] make it inappro-
priate to construct Fossil fuel power plants v%ith a promise of future
retrofit for carbon capture. Governments should support energy
planning for housing and transportation, energy and carbon
efficiency requirements for buildings, vehicles and other manu-
factured products, and climate mitigation and adaptation in
undeveloped countries.
Economic effuciencv v%ould be improved by a rising carbon fee.
Energy efTcicncy and alternative low -carbon and no -carbon
clergies should be allowed to compete on an equal footing,
without subsidies, and the public and business community should
be made aware that the fee will continually rise. The Ive for
unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil from tar sands and gas from
hvdrofracking, should include carbon released in mining and
refuting processes. e.g., methane leakage in hvdrofracking [215-
249]. U the carbon fee rises continually and predictably, the
resulting energti transformations should generate many jobs, a
wekomc benefit Cor nations still suffering from long-standing
economic recession. Economic modeling shov%s that about 60% of
the public, especially lov%-income people, would receive more
money via a per capita 100". dispersal of the collected fee than
they would pay because of increased prices [241].
Fairness: Intergenerational Justice and Human Rights
Relevant fundamentals of climate science are clear. 'I'll(,
physical climate system has great inertia, which is due especially
to the thermal inertia of the ocean, the: time required For ice sheets
to respond to global warming, and the longevity of' fossil fuel CO_
in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, and
biosphere). This inertia implies that there is additional climate
change "in the pipeline" even without further change of
atmospheric composition. Climate system inertia also means that,
if large-scale climate change is allowed to occur, it will be
exceedingly long-lived. lasting for many centuries.
One implication is the likelihood of intergenerational cfI cts,
with young people and future generations inheriting a situation in
which grave consequences are assured, practically out of their
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 19 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
control, but not of their doing. The possibility of' such inter;gen-
erational injustice is not remote - it is at our doorstep now. W(-
haye a planetary climate crisis that requires urgent change to our
encrm and carbon pathttay to avoid dangerous consequences for
young people and other, Life oil Earth,
Yet governments and industry are rushing into expanded use of
lossil heels, including unconventional Fossil fuel, such as tar sands.
tar shale, shale ,gas extracted by hydrolracking, mud methane
h0rates. How can this course be unfolding despite kno%rledle of
climate consequences and evidence that a rising carbon price
would be economic alh eflicicnt and reduce demand for Cosail
Cueh_' A cast, has been made that the absence of ellcctivc
goyernrncnutl leadership is related to the effect of special interests
on policy, as well as to public relations efforts by organization, that
profit from the public's addiction to lossil fuels [237,250].
The judicial branch of governments may be less subject to
pressure, from special Curancial interests than the cxecutkc and
legislative branches, and the courts are expected to protect the
rights of all people, including the less powerCul. The concept that
the atmosphere is a public trust [251], that today, adults must
deliver to their children and future generations an atmosphere as
beneficial as the one they received. is the basis for it lawsuit [252]
in which it is argued that the U.S. ,government is obligated to
protect the atmosphere from harmful greenhouse gases.
Independent of this specific lawsuit, are suggest that intergen-
crational justice in this matter derives from lundamernal rights of
equality and justice. 1`he Universal Declaration oC Human Right,
[253] declares "All are equal before the law and are entitled
without any discrimination to equal protection of the law."
Further, to consider a specific example, the United States
Constitution provides all citizens "cqual protection of the laws"
and states that no person can be deprived of "life. liberty or
property vyithout due process oC law". These fundamental rights
are a basis For Voting people to expect Cairness and justice in a
matter as essential as the condition of` the planet they will inhabit.
We do not prescribe the legal arguments bywhich these rights can
Ile achievecl, but we maintain that failure of governments to
efrectively address climate change infringes on Fundamental rights
Of' young people.
Ultunately, however, human -made climate change is more a
matter of morality than a legal issue. Broad public support iS
probably needed to achieve the changes needed to phase out fossil
fuel emissions. As with the issue of slavery and civil rights, public
recognition of the moral dimensions of human -made climate
change may be needed to stir the public's conscience to the point
of- action.
A scenario is conecicable in which growing evidence oC climate
change and recognition of implication, for young people lead to
massive public support for action. Influential industry leaders,
aware of the moral issue, may join the campaign to phase out
emissions, with more business leaders becoming supportive as they
recognize the merits of a rising price on carbon. Given the relative
ease with which a flat carbon price can be made international
[236], a rapid global emissions phasedoon is feasible. As fossil fuels
ate made to pay their costs to society, energy efficiency and clean
energies may reach tipping points and begin to be rapidly adopted.
Our analysis shows that a set of actions exists with a good
chance of averting "dangerous" climate change, if the actions
begin now. However, vye also show that time is running out.
Unless a human "tipping- point" is reached soon, with implemen-
tation of effective policy actions, large irreversible climate changes
will become unavoidable. Our parent's generation did not know
that their energy use would harm future generations and other life
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
on the planet. Ifwe do not change our course, we can only pretend
that oc did not knovy.
Discussion
We conclude that an appropriate target is to keep global
temperature vtithirt or close to the temperature range in the
Holocene, the interglacial period in which civilization developed.
With vyarming of 0.8 C in the past venture_ Earth is just emerging
from that range, implying that ate need to restore the planet',
encrg� balance and curb further warninw. A limit of approx-
intawk 500 GtC on cumulative IO-il fuel ennis,ions, accompanied
by a net storage of 100 GK: in the biosphere and soil, could keep
global temperature close to the Holocene range, assuming that the
net ftuure forcing change from other Tutor, is small The longevity
of global warnning (Fig. 9) and the irnplau,ibiliu of removing the
warming if it is once allotted to penetrate the deep ocean
emphasize the urgexicy of slotting emissions so as to Stay close to
the 500 GtC target.
Fossil fuel emissions of 1000 GtC, sometimes associated tyith a
2 C: global warnning target, would be expected to cause hu—c
climate change With disastrous consequences. The eventual
vyarming from 1000 GtC fossil fuel emissions likely would reach
well over 2 C, for several reasons. With such emissions and
temperature tendency, other trace greenhouse gases including
methane and nitrous oxide would be expected to increase, adding
to the eficct of CO The global warming and shifting climate
zones would make it less likely that a substantial increase in forest
and soil carbon could be achieved. Paleoclimate data indicate that
slow feedbacks would substantially amplif} the 2 C global
warming. It is clear that pushing global climate Car outSide the
Holocene range is inherently dangerous and foolhardy.
The fifth IPCC assessment Summary for Policymakcrs [14]
concludes that to achieve a 50"t, chance of keeping global
warming below 2 C equivalent CO, emissions should not exceed
1210 GtC:, and after accounting for non -CO, climate forcings this
limit on GO, emissions becomes 840 GtC. The existing drafts oC
the fifth IPCC. assessment are not yet approved For comparison
and citation, but the IPCC assessment is consistent with studies of
blcinshattsen et al. [254] and Allen et al. [13], hereafter N12009
and A2009, with tchich oe can make comparisons. We will also
compare our conclusions with those of McKibben [255]. N12009
and A2009 appear together in the same journal with the two lead
authors on each paper being co-authors on the other paper_
McKibben [255], published in it popular magazine, uses
quantitative results of M2009 to conclude that most remaining
fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground, ifglobal warming this
century is to be kept belovt 2'C. McKibben [255] has been very
successful in drawing public attention to the urgency of' rapidly
phasing doom fossil fuel emissions.
M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make
a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in
the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are
allotted to vary, thus yielding a probability, distribution for global
warming as a function of time throughout the 21 si century. M2009
use this distribution to infer a limit on total (fossil fuel+net land use)
carbon emissions in the period 2000-2049 if global vyarming in the
2lst century is to be kept below 2'C at some specified probability.
For example, they conclude that the limit o❑ total 2000 2049
carbon emissions is 1440 GWO_ '393 G(C) to achieve a 50°0
chance that 21st venue\ global tyarnning will not exceed 2 C.
A2009 also use a large ensemble of model runs, varying
uncertain parameters, and conclude that total ;fossil fuel+nct land
user carbon emissions of 1000 GtC' would most likely yield a peak
PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 20 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
CO, -induced «arming of'2 C, with 90" o confidence that the peak
warming \\mild be in the range 1.3-3.9 C: 'I'hev note that their
results are consistent with those of M2009, as the A2009 seenatios
that yield 2 C \\arriving hate 100 500 GtC emissions during
2000 20 R N12009 find 393 GW emission, for 2 C warming. but
M2009 included it net vyarning effect of non -CO_ forcings, vchile
A2009 neglected non -GO forcings.
McKibben 125 ] uses results of N12009 to infer allowable fossil
fuel emissions up to 2050 if there is to be an 80"b chance that
maximum warming in the 21 st cenutrc gill not exceed 2 C above
the pic-industrial level. t112009 conclude than ati viug tender this
2 C: limit with 80 probability require, that 2000 2019 cmissions
must be limited to 656 GWO, (179 GtC) for 2007-2019.
McKibben [255] used this 112009 result to determine a remaining
carbon budget (at a time not specified exa(th) of:)65 GWO, (15�1
GtC! if \\arming is to stay under 2 C. Let us update this analysis to
the present: fossil fuel emissions in 2007-2012 were 51 GtC 15], so,
assuming no net emissions from land use in these few years, the
N12009 study implies that the remaining budget at the beginning
of 2013 was 128 GtC.
Thus, eOincidcntaIhy the McKibben [255] approach via M2009
yields almost exacdv the same remaining carbon budget (128 GtG
as our analysis (130 GtC). However, our budget is that required to
limit warming to about 1 C (dare is a temporary maximum
during this century at about 1.1-L2 C, Mg. 9), while McKibben
[255] is allowing global warming to reach 2`C, which \ye have
concluded vcould be a disaster scenario! This apparently vast
difference arises from three major factors.
First, we assumed that reforestation and improved agricultural
and foresu•y practices can suck up the net land use carbon of the
past. We estimate net land use emissions as 100 GtC, while N12009
have land use en rksions almost twice that large (--180 GtC). We
argue elsewhere (.see section 1 1 in Supporting Information of [5 1])
that the commonly employed net land use estimates [236] arc
about a factor oftwo larger than the net land use carbon that is
most consistent with observed CO, history. However, yw need not
resolve that long-standing controversy here. The point is that, to
make the M2009 study equivalent to ours, negative land use
omissions mussbe included in the 21st century equal to earlier
positive land use emissions.
Second, we have assumed that future net change of non -CO,
forcings will be zero: while N12009 have included significant non-
forcings. In recent gears non -GO, GHGs have provided
about 20°0 of the increase of total GHG climate forcing.
Third. our calculations are for a single fast -feedback equilibrium
climate sensitivity, 3 C for doubled CO,,, \\'}rich we infer from
paleoclimate data. N12009 use a range of climate sensitivities to
compute a probability distribution Function for expected warming,
and then McKibben [255] selects the carbon emission limit that
keeps 80',,t of the probabilitydistribution below 2-(:.
The third factor is a matter of methodology, but one tO be bolo( -
in mind. Regarding the first two factors, it may be argued that our
scenario is optimistic. That is true, but both goals, extracting 100
GtC from the atmosphere via improved forestry and agricultural
practices (\kith possibly sons assistance Front CCS technology) and
limiting additional net change of non -CO, forcings to zero, are
feasible and probably much easier than the principal task of
limiting additional fossil fuel emissions to 130 GtC.
We noted above that reforestation and improving agricultural
and forestry practices that store more carbon in the soil make sense
for other reasons. Also that task is made easier by the excess CO_
in the air today, which causes vegetation to take up CO, more
etliciernly. Indeed, this may be the mason that net land use
emissions seem to be less than is often assumed.
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
As for the non -CO., Iorcings, it is noteworthy that greenhouse
gases controlled by the (Montreal Protocol arc tow decreasing, and
recent aigreemerrt has been achieved to use the Montreal Protocol
to phase out production of some additional greenhouse gasses even
though those gases do not aIlcet the ozone laver. The most
important non -CO, forcing is methane, vyhosc increases in Will
Caw;(' tropospheric ozone and stratospheric wawr vapor to
increase. Fossil fuel use is probably the largest source of nmthene
[1]. so if fossil fuel use begins to be phased down, there is ,good
basis to anticipate that all three of these greenhouse gases could
decrease, because of the approximate 10-year lifetime of mcthanc.
As for fossil fuel CO" emissions, consicicring the large, long-lived
fossil fuel infrastructure in place, the science is telling us that police
should be set to reduce emission, as rapid(} as possible. The most
Fundamental implication is the need for an across-the-board rising
fec on fossil fuel emissions in order to allow true Fee market
competition from non -fossil energy sources. We note that
biospheric storage should not be allowed to offset Further fossil
fuel emissions. Most fossil fuel carbon will remain in the climate
system more than 100,000 years, so it is essential to limit the
emission of fossil fuel carbon. It willbe necessary tc have incentives
to restore biosphcric carbon, but these must be accompanied by
decreased fossil fuel emissions.
A crucial point to note is that the three tasks [limiting fossil fuel
CO, emissions, limiting (and reeersing) hind use emissions,
limiting (and reversing) growth of non -CO. Forchngs] are
interactive and reinforcing. In mathematical terms, the problem
is non -linear. As one of these climate forcings increases, it increases
the others. The good news is that, as one of them decreases, it
tends to decrease the others. In order to bestow upon Culture
generations a planet like the one we received, we need to %\irn on
all three counts, and by Cnr the most important is rapid pha.sedoNm
of fossil fuel erttissions.
It is distressing that, despite the clarity and imminence of the
clanger of continued high fossil fuel emissions, governments
continue to allow and even encourage pursuit of ever more fossil
Fuel,. Recognition of this reality and perceptions of what is
"politically feasible" may partially account for acceptance of
targets for global warning and carbon emissions that arc well into
the range of "dangerous human -made interference" with climate.
Although there is merit in simply chronicling what is happening,
there is still opportunity for humarnity to exercise free will. Thus
our objective is to define what the science indicates is needed, not
to assess political feasibility. Further, it is not obvious to us that
there are physical or economic limitations that prohibit fossil fuel
emission targets far lower than 1000 GW, even targets closer to
500 0(1, Indeed, we suggest that rapid transition off fossil fuels
\could have numerous near -term and long-term social benefits,
including improved human health and outstanding potential for
job creation.
A world summit on climate change will be held at United
-Nations Headquarters in September 2011 as a preliminary to
negotiation of a nevv climate treaty in Paris it late 201). If this
treaty is analogous to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol [257], based on
national targets for emission reductions and cap -and -trade -with -
offsets emissions trading mechanisms, climate deterioration and
gross intergenerational injustice will be practically guaranteed.
The palpable danger that such an approach is conceivable is
suggested by examination of proposed climate policies ofeven the
most forward -looking of nations_-Norvkay, vvhicln along with the
other Scandinavian countries has been among the most ambitious
and successful of all nations in reducing its emissions, nevertheless
approves expanded oil drilling in the arctic and development of
tar sands as it majority owner of Statoil [258-259]_ Emissions
PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 21 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
foreseen by the Enerp Per,peciives of Siatoil ['259], if thcx occur,
,could approach or exceed 1000 GtC and cause dramatic climate
change that would run out of control of future generations. 11" in
contrast, leading nations agn-ce in 2015 to hac e internal rising fee,
on carbon kith border duties on products from umiions icithout a
carbon Gs, a foundation vcould he established for phaseo,rr to
carbon lire energies and stable climate.
Supporting Information
Table S1
PODS,
Table S2
iODS;
Table S3
iODS
Text S1
(DOCI
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Assessing Dangerous Climate Change
Acknowledgments
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PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 26 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648
Coirnirnuvvity
Divisions
•Planning - 10
• Long Range Planning
• Current Planning
•Building Safety - 4
• Housing
• Code Compliance
Page 2-100
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COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
Biennium 2017-19
FY 2012-13
BN 2013-15
BN 2015-17
FY 2017-18
FY 2018-19
BN 2017-19
Description Actual
Actual
Amended Budget
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Personal Services $ 1,268,050
$ 2,817,403
$ 3,117,750
$ 1,645,523
$ 1,697,147
$ 3,342,675
Materials and Services 643,917
1,392,394
1,667,701
1,222,140
924,925
2,147,065
$ 1,911,967 $ 4,209,797 $ 4,785,451 $ 2,867,668 $ 2,622,072 $ 5,489,740
Department Total By Fund
General Fund $ 1,810,055 $ 3,874,733 $ 4,345,653 $ 2,572,523 $ 2,463,432 $ 5,035,955
CD Block Fund 101,912 335,064 439,798 295,145 158,640 453,785
$ 1,911,967 $ 4,209,797 $ 4,785,451 $ 2,867,668 $ 2,622,072 $ 5,489,740
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Description
Fund#110
Personal Services
510 Salaries and Wages
520 Fringe Benefits
Total Personal Services
Materials and Services
601 Supplies
602 Rental, Repair, Maintenance
603 Communications
604 Contractual Services
605 Misc. Charges and Fees
606 Other Purchased Services
608 Commissions
609 Grants
610 Programs
Total Materials and Services
GENERALFUND
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
PLANNING DIVISION (Including Housing Program)
Biennium 2017-19
FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015.17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19
Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed
$ 550,160 $ 1,239,564 $ 1,344,050 $ 706,648 $ 709,630 $ 1,416,278
295,604 676,498 783,710 458,455 484,567 943,022
845,764 1,916,062 2,127,760 1,165,103 1,194,197 2,359,300
8,472
17,479
20,250
9,727
9,728
19,455
12,486
13,958
16,148
5,375
5,375
10,750
1,620
3,877
4,700
2,650
2,650
5,300
19,516
54,628
108,000
46,500
51,500
98,000
242,337
503,255
537,965
284,137
284,387
568,524
13,791
25,049
33,100
16,400
16,400
32,800
1,799
2,912
4,500
1,300
1,300
2,600
166,351
-
166,351
14,503
9,971
34,000
12,500
12,500
25,000
314,524
631,129
758,663
544,940
383,840
928,780
GENERALFUND
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
SOCIAL SERVICES DIVISION
Biennium 2017.19
FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19
Description Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed
Fund#110
Materials and Services
609 Grants $ 123,394 $ 254,205 $ 267,933 $ 133,970 $ 133,970 $ 267,940
Total Materials and Services $ 123,394 $ 254,205 $ 267,933 $ 133,970 $ 133,970 $ 2671940
EXPENDITURES
Description
Fund# 250
Personal Services
510 Salaries and Wages
520 Fringe Benefits
Total Personal Services
Materials and Services
606 Other Purchased Services
609 Grants
Total Materials and Services
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT FUND
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT DIVISION
Biennium 2017-19
FY 2012-13 BN 2013.15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19
Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed
$ 20,746 $ 44,436 $ 42,580 $ 19,520 $ 19,130 $ 38,650
11,700 23,124 22,840 11,990 12,240 24,230
32,446 67,560 65,420 31,510 31,370 62,880
360 374 800 200 200 400
69,106 267,130 373,578 263,435 127,070 390,505
69,466 267,504 374,378 263,635 127,270 390,905
$ 101,912 $ 335,064 $ 439,798 $ 295,145 $ 158,640 $ 453,785
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Description
Fund# 110
Personal Services
510 Salaries and Wages
520 Fringe Benefits
Total Personal Services
Materials and Services
601 Supplies
602 Rental, Repair, Maintenance
603 Communications
604 Contractual Services
605 Misc. Charges and Fees
606 Other Purchased Services
Total Materials and Services
GENERALFUND
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
BUILDING DIVISION
Biennium 2017.19
FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19
Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed
$ 267,210 $ 539,789 $ 588,200 $ 275,085 $ 286,040 $ 561,125
122,630 293,992 336,370 173,830 185,540 359,370
389,840 833,781 924,570 448,915 471,580 920,495
4,451
7,499
7,300
4,325
4,325
8,650
36,112
31,491
35,420
3,700
3,700
7,400
2,398
4,497
6,560
5,750
5,750
11,500
5,010
33,822
35,000
17,500
17,500
35,000
202,110
407,457
434,880
240,720
240,970
481,690
9,846
8,995
15,500
7,600
7,600
15,200
259,927
493,761
534,660
279,595
279,845
559,440
$ 649,767 $ 1,327,542 $ 1,459,230 $ 728,510 $ 751,425 $ 1,479,935
Questions?
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Infrastructure
• Water System - 17 FTE's
• Wastewater System - 11.3 FTE's
• Road Network - 10.9 FTE's
• Storm Drain System - 3.05 FTE's
• Airport - 0 FTE's
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Questions?
Questions?
Questions?
Questions?
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Support Divisions
• Public Works Support - 14m5
FTE's
• Fleet Maintenance - 6.5 FTE's
• Facilities Maintenance - 3 FTE's
• Cemeteries - 2 FTE's
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