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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2017-05-25 Budget Committee MinutesBudget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 1 of 7 BUDGET COMMITTEE MEETING MINUTES May 25, 2017 Council Chambers 1175 E. Main Street Budget Committee Chair David Runkel called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m. in the Civic Center Council Chambers. ROLL CALL Present: Sal Amery Mary Cody Traci Darrow Garrett Furuichi Paula Hyatt Greg Lemhouse Shaun Moran Mike Morris arrived at 6:06 p.m. James Nagel David Runkel Stefani Seffinger arrived at 6:54 p.m. Dennis Slattery John Stromberg Rich Rosenthal arrived at 7:02 p.m. APPROVAL OF MINUTES Slattery/Stromberg m/s to approve the minutes of the April 6, 2017 and April 13, 2017 ECTS subcommittee meetings. Voice Vote: Amery, Cody, Darrow, Hyatt, Lemhouse, Moran, Nagel, Runkel, Slattery and Stromberg, YES. Furuichi, NO. Motion passed 10-1. PUBLIC INPUT Susan Rust/42 North Wightman/Spoke in support of the Climate Energy Action Plan (CEAP) position. JoAnne Eggers/221 Granite Street/Supported the CEAP position and volunteered to help achieve the plan's objectives. Christopher Buckley/71 Dewey Street/Supported implementing smart grid technology, having better transportation systems, efficient housing, and the CEAP position. Lydia Holmes/922 Morton Street/Supported the CEAP position. The number of warm days would increase 11-66 by 2050 and 18-136 by 2080. Fires in the Pacific Northwest area could increase roughly 900 square miles by 2040. Annika Larson/795 Ellendale Drive, Medford OR/Climate change threatened unique habitats and ecosystems that held some of the rarest creatures in the world. It was disheartening to see humans continue to harm their environment. She supported CEAP and the staff position. Shaun Franks/330 Hersey Street/Represented True South Solar who supported the CEAP position. Phase 1 called for easy wins and foundational actions. Roberta Stebbins/111 Granite Street/Supported the addition of five new police officers. During the budget presentation on the Police Department, Budget Committee members asked many questions about the five officers even though it was not in the budget and questioned why it was not included. Nikolas Lindauer/320 Oxford Street/Supported the CEAP position. Oil was cheap but the technology existed for alternative fuel production. Renewable energy went back into the community. The more independent Ashland's energy supply became, the more stable the economy. Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 2 of 7 Claire Pryor/1221 Orchid Street/Climate change will not wait and society did not have the luxury of waiting. People put off climate change discussions for 30 years and now her future was at stake. Council's decision on the CEAP position was a decision for the future. Harry David/950 Belleview Avenue/Asked the following, what was the budget process, where was it documented, when did it start, who drove it and made the ultimate decision, was there a hard two year budget and a subsequent softer budget for the longer period. What was the negotiation posture for police and fire negotiations, will the City change the benefit model, and what was the impact of various assumptions on the budget, what were the PERS guidelines and who controlled the process. Jeff Golden/925 Oak Street/Supported the CEAP position and urged the Committee to protect the investment the City had made in the CEAP. Maya Davis/9667 Wagner Creek Road, Talent, OR/Supported the CEAP position and shared what would happen by delaying implementing the plan. Andrew Kubik/1251 Munson Drive/Recommended outsourcing the CEAP position or internally promoting it to prevent further PERS obligations. He wanted an immediate freeze on outside hires with few exceptions and a freeze on capital projects unless it replaced aging infrastructure. Huelz Gutcheon/2253 Hwy 99/Climate change involved quantifying Kilowatt-hours, dollars, and carbons. However, the Budget Committee today was only measuring the dollars and needed to learn how to measure Kilowatt-hours and carbons. Cara Cruickshank/1193 Ashland Mine Road/Urged the Budget Committee to fund the CEAP position. She thought the City should only hire three police officers and stagger the hiring. Susan Sullivan/305 Stoneridge Avenue/Spoke against building the East Nevada Street Bridge. It was poorly planned, questionably funded, and environmentally damaging. She wanted a pedestrian bike bridge built instead. The bridge went against the City and the state's Transportation System Plan (TSP). Susan Hall/210 E Nevada/Wanted the number of police officers cut down to four, the East Nevada Street Bridge cancelled and the money put back into the budget for other things people had advocated for. Richard McKinney/117 8" Street/Supported the CEAP position. Climate change was already upon us and people needed to be proactive. It had to happen globally but major efforts always started locally. Joan Kalvelage PhD/810 Faith Avenue/Supported the CEAP position. She was a psychotherapist and talked about the mental health aspects climate change was having on her clients. Marni Koopman/1206 Linda Avenue/Was a climate change scientist, served on the CEAP ad hoc Committee and Conservation Commission, and supported the CEAP position. She submitted documents into the record. Meredith Overstreet/840 Cambridge/Asked the Budget Committee to consider the questions citizens had brought up during the process. David Young/747 Oak Street/Was a member of the Transportation Commission and had chaired the Downtown Parking Management & Circulation ad hoc Advisory Committee. He was disappointed Council voted against the parking plan. He equated that committee to the CEAP ad hoc Committee and noted the time and effort invested in both plans. Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 3 of 7 Dave Helmich/468 Williamson Way/He was impressed with work the citizen members had done in the Budget Committee. He cited errors he found in the budget document and stated it was unacceptable. OLD BUSINESS Discussion on material provided pursuant to the Budget Committee action on May 18, 2017 Administrative Services/Finance Director Mark Welch explained staff had provided information used to develop the budget. There were variances in the information from last week and this meeting. Spreadsheets used to develop the budget included non -position specific items like overtime, vacation pay, sick leave, and holiday pay. Mr. Furuichi responded every single item in the handout showed a significant variance from the budget document. Mr. Welch respectively disagreed and explained why. Furuichi motioned to recess the meeting until all of the questions were answered. The motion died for lack of second. Mr. Furuichi addressed revenue forecasts on page 3-5. He thought the resources were aggressive. The one for property taxes showed a projection of $1.7 million over the biennium and was 9.2% on something that could not grow more than 3% a year in property tax law. The Electricity User Tax grossed $592,000 at 9.4%. Franchise Fees grew $713,000 at 11.22% and the hotel -motel tax fund grew $651,000 at 12.46%. Fire and Rescue was up $480,000. He wanted to know how Mr. Welch came up with such an aggressive forecast. Mr. Welch explained the revenue for property tax was based on actual numbers provided by Jackson County for the total assessed valuation in the City. Staff took the current rate and determined 95% of that amount would be collected. That number went into the budget. Mr. Welch explained the City had one of the most skilled finance directors in the state as their interim administrative services/finance director. Knowing Bev Adams' expertise made him comfortable with the revenue forecasts. He supported the revenue forecasts from the Department Heads as well. It was a balanced budget with current information. Lemhouse/Amery m/s to listen to presentations from Community Development and Public Works as well as Agenda Item VI. Approval of Grant Process and Allocations and agree to reconvene next Thursday at 6:00 p.m. DISCUSSION: The Committee discussed dates and availability. Lemhouse/Hyatt m/s to amend the motion and change the meeting to Monday, June 5, 2017 at 6:00 p.m. Voice Vote: all AYES. Motion passed. The Committee discussed the process for submitting questions to staff. They would submit their questions to Mr. Welch no later than end of business Tuesday, May 30, 2017. Mr. Welch would compile the questions, remove duplicates, and post them to the City website. PRESENTATIONS Community Development — See attached presentation Community Development Director Bill Molnar presented on the following: Community Development Significant items and changes: • Personal Services - $225,000 • Materials & Services - $479,000 o Housing Trust Fund o Social Services Grants o Miscellaneous Charges & Fees, Licensing Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 4 of 7 The Housing Trust Fund and Social Service Grants accounted for 94% of the increase in Materials and Services. The other 6% came from Central Service charges and licensing fees. Planning Significant items and changes: • Miscellaneous Fees & Charges - $29,000 o Licensing ($5,500) • Housing Trust Fund - $166,380 Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) Significant items and changes Annual CDBG Award - $159,000 • 20% for Administration • BN 2015-17 Carryover - $136,000 — eligible for award in 2018 Building Significant items and changes • Personal Services — minor decrease • Miscellaneous Fees & Charges - $23,500 o Licensing ($5,500) The ombudsman position was originally a full time temporary position in 2005 that became permanent full time. It was eliminated when the recession hit in 2008. The position reported to the community development director with regular reporting to the city administrator. It would be difficult to create the position without additional funding given activity levels. Construction valuation had increased 30%, walk in customers increased 30%, building and land use permits 13% to 18%. Assistant planners and line planners were having a hard time keeping up with the workload. The ombudsman position came out of an evaluation of customer service initiated through the City Administrator as a result in complaints regarding a reduction in response time. Staff initiated a survey to 2,000 people they had worked with over the past two years and held a stakeholder forum. Results confirmed a difficulty navigating the City's process. Additionally, they were currently down three full time employees. The new software would not mitigate the need for the ombudsman and the position would actually manage the software. The ombudsman would coordinate development services from the intake of the permit, internal review, and final approval. It would incorporate sewer, water, storm drainage, streets, electric, AFN, and water supply in the City. Those departments would be part of the permit routing process. The software would track these departments. The position would advocate for the public and help navigate the process. Community Development was functioning at recession level staffing from 2008 but the workload was back to pre -recession activity. Public Works — See attached presentation Engineering Services Manager Scott Fleury presented on the following: Infrastructure Significant items and changes: • Wastewater Collections Position reinstated per master plan • Water Treatment Plant and Crowson II Reservoir Construction • Oxidation Ditch Construction at the WWTP • Comprehensive Street Overlay Program • Downtown Super Sharrow Project Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 5 of 7 Beginning this biennium, funds from the Food and Beverage (F&B) Tax would fund the pavement overlay program. When payments to the Wastewater Fund ended in 2023, all of the F&B Tax would be dedicated to the street and overlay programs. The Street Fund would receive approximately $1.26 million in F&B Tax. Street repair would start this biennium with a street overlay on North Mountain Avenue from Hersey Street to I-5, Wightman Street from Quincy Street to Siskiyou Boulevard, and the entire length of Hersey Street. Ashland Street and Siskiyou Boulevard were scheduled for the next biennium. Staff was working with the GIS Division to develop a comprehensive infrastructure database that included projects in the CIP, street rehabilitation, Electric, and Parks and Recreation Departments to help determine the greatest need and combine efforts with the other departments. The super sharrow was a proposed project and not approved at this time. The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) would have to approve the project prior to starting. Some of the sidewalk improvements were rolling over into this biennium. The City would bond for all the improvements in the Street Fund and use revenues in the Street Fund to pay the debt service associated with the projects. The $10.39 million was the minimum the City would bond for to accomplish all the projects. They would use rates, fees, gas tax revenue, and the F&B tax revenue to fund the debt services. The fees and rates were the apportioned share of the cost of the project. It was not itemized on 1-10. The revenue and long-term resource accounted for the borrowing to fund the projects. The fees and rates accumulated paid the debt service moving forward for the roadway projects. Staff subtracted grant funds already received or were expecting to receive. The City had the grant for the Hersey -Laurel Railroad improvement, $800,000 for the chip seal project, and $1.5 million for the Nevada Street project with the expectation of attaining more grant funding in the biennium if Council approved the project. Chip seal projects were part of CMAQ grant that ODOT managed. The City did not receive funds directly and expenditures from fees and rates going towards the project totaled $93,000. Grants were typically specific to one project. The Metropolitan Planning Organization administered grants for Jackson County. The City had an allotment of System Development Charges (SDCs) already collected for use on specific projects. Council would determine how to fund critical projects if the City did not receive all the money and revenue they had expected. SDCs could be applied to a different project as long as it was SDC eligible. Staff would update the Airport Master Plan per the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The City would receive a 90% grant from the FAA with a 10% match from the City. However, with this grant, the City would have a 9% match instead. Skinner Aviation provided onsite management of the airport through a lease agreement. Water Fund Piping the Talent Irrigation District (TID) from Starlight Street to Terrace Street would lower Ecoli in Ashland Creek and increase supply coming to the City 20% by eliminating evaporation and seepage. The project would come from a 1% loan from the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The debt service would start in the next biennium that the City would pay with SDCs. Water Treatment Fund The City was in the midst of the engineering and construction of Water Treatment Plant and Crowson 11 Reservoir. Staff attained a $14.9 million loan at 1.79% to fund the construction for the Water Treatment Plant that included $1 million in loan forgiveness. Water Distribution Franchise fees were imbedded in the Distribution Materials and Services line 6-12. Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 6 of 7 Conservation Division There were two full time employees (FTE) in this division. Wastewater Collection System No questions. Wastewater Treatment Plan Wastewater effluent required shading for the near field and the fair field. Water quality trading dealt with the far field. The near field must meet a certain percentage at the location where the effluent met the receiving stream. This was why the City was considering relocating the effluent from Ashland Creek to Bear Creek to comply with the temperature requirement. Staff expected to meet the temperature requirements through riparian restoration and wetland construction to run the effluent into a final point on Bear Creek. The Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) developed a new rule that detailed the fair field temperature shading issue. The City was under administrative extension for the permit last issued in 2008 and was waiting for DEQ to start the MPDS permit process again. The City would solve the temperature issue once DEQ issued the new permit. Riparian restoration consisted of planting trees for shading. Staff had $1.262 million forecasted for the shading project during the initial two years. There would be another three years of capital costs then ongoing payments for the 20-year cycle. The overall project cost for the 20-year period was approximately $3.5 million. Using a cooling tower and chillers would have cost the City $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 to meet temperature needs along with $200,000 to $250,000 operating costs for electricity annually. Wastewater SDC The SDCs were deferred. The City was working on funding to support the large-scale capital projects and coincide with DEQ's permit renewal. The oxidation ditch project was in progress. Staff was finishing the outfall mixing zone study to move forward on engineering for the mixing zone. Storm Water This division consisted of 3.05 full time employees. Storm Water SDC Master plans allowed the City to get grants, program projects, develop financial strategies to support the program in the capital projects inherent to the storm drain system. Support Division Significant items and changes • Additional Dedicated Capital Improvement Project Manager • City Hall Advisory Committee Options Analysis and Recommendation The City collaborated with Rogue Valley Council of Governments (RVCOG) on storm water outreach. Staff provided backflow device education as needed and the demand was growing. A component of the Water Master Plan update was an Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Manual for the water distribution system that detailed items like backflow and cross connections. Mr. Moran wanted to know how the Public Works Department measured the success of a pro] ect. Mr. Stromberg raised a point of order that the inquiry was an attempt at management audit and not budget related. Mr. Fleury explained staff tracked all project expenses start to finish and forwarded that information to Finance once the project was completed. Finance added fixed assets and detail. Budget Committee Meeting May 25, 2017 Page 7 of 7 The cemetery had a fund over $1 million that would require a change to the City Charter to release the funds. The best use of that fund would be upgrading the irrigation systems in the cemeteries. The money came from perpetual care trusts that had grown over time. Facility Maintenance Division The former Interim Finance Director Bev Adams transferred over $1 million from the Ending Fund Balance into Central Services to reduce central service charges. Short staffed for years until this biennium, the Facility Division had deferred maintenance for years and had addressed priority only issues. Fleet Maintenance No questions. Equipment Fund Equipment fluctuated and depended on what type of equipment the City was purchasing. Approving the budget did not approve the Nevada Street Bridge project. It would go before Council June 20, 2017. APPROVAL OF GRANT PROCESS AND ALLOCATIONS Assistant City Administrator Adam Hanks explained the subcommittee made preliminary grant allocation recommendations. There was an error in the spreadsheet that resulted in $1,000 over allocation. The Committee packet provided different scenarios to address the over allocation. Rosenthal/Stromberg m/s to approve the ECTS grant allocation for this year and reduce year two grant allocations from $229,703 to $222,596. DISCUSSION: Mr. Rosenthal thanked the Committee members. The mistake was correctable. Ms. Seffinger appreciated the Committee's efforts. Mr. Stromberg agreed. The benefit to the community was worthwhile. Voice Vote: ALL AYES. Motion passed. DISCUSSION OF FUNDING FOR COUNCIL PRIORITY BUDGET ADD -INS Item delayed to the June 5, 2017 meeting. MOTION TO APPROVE THE 2017-19 BIENNIAL BUDGET & LEVY TAX Item delayed to the June 5, 2017 meeting. BUDGET COMMITTEE COMMENTS ADJOURNMENT Meeting adjourned at 9:54 p.m. Respectfully submitted, Dana Smith Assistant to the City Recorder CITY OF -ASHLAND Budget Committee Meeting #3 Agenda May 25, 2017 at 6:00pm Civic Center Council Chambers, 1175 East Main Street I. Call to Order a. Roll call II. Approval of Minutes April 6, 2017 ECTS subcommittee meeting April 13, 2017 ECTS subcommittee meeting III. Public Input Public comments on budgets to be presented this evening and/or the entire 2017/19 biennial budget IV. Old Business Discussion on material provided pursuant to the Budget Committee action on May 18, 2017 V. Presentations • Community Development • Public Works VI. APPROVAL OF GRANT PROCESS AND ALLOCATIONS Motion to approve the ECTS grant allocations. VII. Discussion of Funding for Council Priority Budget Add -ins Vill. Motion to Approve the 2017-19 Biennial Budget & Levy Tax "1 move to approve the City of Ashland 2017-19 biennial budget [as revised] and recommend the budget to the City Council for adoption, approve the property tax levy in the amount of [up to $4.2865] per $1000 of assessed value for fiscal year 2017-18 and fiscal year 2018-19 respectively, approve property taxes for the payment of general obligation principal and interest bonded debt in the total of $515,309 for fiscal year 2017-18, and $514,499 for fiscal year 2018-19. (If budget has been revised, then "as revised" should be added to motion) IX. Budget Committee Comments X. Meeting Adjourned In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, if you need special assistance to participate in this meeting, please contact the City Administrator's office at (541) 488-6002 (TTY phone number 1-800-735-2900). Notification 72 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City to make reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility to the meeting (28 CFR 35.102-35.104 ADA Title I). 2 Title: Discussion of Funding for Council Priority Budget Add -ins From: John Karns Interim City Administrator John. karns@ashland.or. us Prior to the start of the 2017-19 biennial budget process, Council held three special meetings to discuss, deliberate and agree on its priority items for additional funding through the budget process. The following "key decisions" summary provides the Budget Committee with a summary of the four approved Council priorities and their funding options identified during the Council special meetings. Because the Budget Committee has the legal responsibility to set the property tax rate, all Council priorities list the nine cents of available property tax rate as the first potential funding source. Should the committee vote not to increase the property tax rate, alternative funding sources are provided to assist the committee in their recommendations to the Council as the implementation of those alternative funding sources reside outside of the budget approval process. Key Decisions: Police Staffing • Does the committee wish to apply the available property tax increase ($227,000/yr), or a portion thereof, to fund a portion the five police officer positions approved by Council ($550,000/yr)? • Does the committee wish to recommend the use of a Public Safety Support Fee charged on each customer's utility bill to fund the five new police officers approved by Council? o Customer accounts with water meter only - $3.00/month AND o Customer accounts with electric meter only - $1.75/month OR o Customer accounts with both electric and water meters - $4.75/month *With current utility account statistics, total revenue f -ofn this fee generates approxiinately $565, 000 C'FAP Staff • Does the committee wish to apply a portion of the available property tax increase ($220,000/yr) to fund the proposed Climate and Energy Action Plan new staff position with a cost of $105,000 /yr? • Does the committee wish to fund the Climate and Energy Action Plan new staff position through the following schedule? o .5 from the Electric Fund (Electric Rates) o .5 from Central Service Charges (Internal charges to all Departments) Permit Ombudsperson • Does the committee wish to fund the Permit Ombudsperson through a portion of the available property tax increase? Page 1 of 2 CITY OF -AS H LA N D 3 Does the committee wish to fund the Permit Ombudsperson ($110,000/yr) through the following schedule? o On -tenth of a percent increase in the Comm Dev building permit fee producing $30,000 (approx.) o $20,000 to $25,000 from the existing $150,000 Economic Development Program budget (unrestricted TOT funds) o Remaining expense allocated through central service charges to the other Depts/Divisions (.40 to .50 FTE to CS-Admin) Rebuild Reserve Fund Does the committee wish to fund the Reserve Fund through a portion of the available property tax increase? Does the committee wish to recommend to rebuild the reserve fund with all or some of the local 3% portion of the total annual marijuana tax revenues? Tax disbursements from the State will likely not start until August or September of 2017, and the amount is not yet lalown. The state portion of the total amlual marijuana tax revenue is restricted to funding law enforcement activities, but the local portion carries no restrictions. Resource Requirements: The cost of each add -in and potential funding source(s) are listed above. Suggested Next Step: As the formal body that determines the property tax rate for the City, the Budget Committee will need to decide whether to increase the property tax rate above the current level of $4.1972 per thousand dollars of assessed valuation to any approved amount up to but not exceeding the maximum total tax rate of $4.2865. Additionally, the Budget Committee can provide guidance and recommendation to Council regarding other potential funding mechanisms for the four Council prioritized add -ins. Potential template for property tax related motions: I move to increase the property tax rate by cents to provide funding for Background and Additional Information: At a Council Special Meeting on May 4 the Council approved the top four add -ins as Council priorities and moved to discuss funding mechanisms at subsequent Budget Committee meetings. • Police staffing (5 FTE) had previously been approved by Council at a business meeting on April 18, 2017. • CEAP staffing (1 FTE) is a "Year One" implementation priority in the CEAP master document approved by Council on March 7, 2017 • The Permit Ombudsperson (1 FTE) is the result of significant public and development sector customer dialogue with the Community Development Department and City Administration and is a restoration of a position eliminated in 2008-09. • The Reserve Fund was originally established by Council via resolution (Reso 2010-18) on June 15, 2010. Page 2 of 2 CITY OF -ASH-LAND4 ECTS Grants Attachments 1. Minutes from April 6, 2017 Subcommittee Meeting 2. Minutes from April 13, 2017 Subcommittee Meeting 3. Memo: ECTS Grants Allocation 4. ECTS Grant Allocation History 5 9 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 1 of 10 MINUTES FOR THE ASHLAND CITIZENS BUDGET COMMITTEE ECONOMIC, CULTURAL, TOURISM, AND SUSTAINABILITY GRANTS SUBCOMMITTEE Thursday, April 6, 2017 Council Chambers, 1175 E. Main Street 1. Call to Order Mayor Stromberg called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m. 2. Attendance Sub -Committee members John Stromberg, Shaun Moran, Garrett Furuichi, Rich Rosenthal, Dennis Slattery, Traci Darrow, and David Runkel were present. Staff member Adam Hanks was present. Mayor Stromberg asked the subcommittee to discuss how they would like the deliberations regarding allocations to go at the next meeting, on April 13, 2017. Rosenthal proposed that they go through applicant requests one at a time until group comes to consensus. Group agreed to this process. Rosenthal reminded the group that the minimum allocation amount is $5000. 3. Appointment of Chair Moran nominated Runkel. Slattery stated he has concerns that Runkel is directly connected to one of the applicants. Group discussed conflict of interest concerns and inherent challenges. Runkel stated he is happy either to participate as the chair as he did last year or leave, whichever the group determines. Group mostly that so long as Runkel has been clear about his conflicts and so long as he isn't allocating amounts to the recipients they are comfortable with him acting as chair. Moran/ Furuichi m/s to appoint Runkel as Chair of the subcommittee. Voice Vote. All Ayes. Motion Passes. 4. Public Forum None 5. Staff Report Hanks gave overview of where the funds are allocated, what the grant resolution states, and what funds are required to be restricted to tourism related activities. He gave an overview of the allocation spreadsheet the group will be using between the meetings. 6. Applicant Presentations 1. Rogue Valley Symphony Association. Jane Kenworthy stated that this is 50th anniversary season of the symphony association. She gave details on their recent growth, including performing an additional concert series, re -launching a discovery program to get young people interested in playing instruments, and helping local band leaders with education targeted at members. She reviewed what activities they intend to use the 7 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 2 of 10 grant funding for. Moran asked how many musicians will likely be participating? Was informed that there are 72 core musician, most of whom are local. The association is planning on giving them a raise due to the expanded program they are playing. 2. Science Works Hands -On Museum Sharon Javna and Erin Scott informed the group that at 61K attendees each year, they are the third largest visitor destination in Ashland and are open all year round. She stated that in 2016, 16% of visitors were tourists, up from 11% in 2015. Javna informed the group how they hope to use funds to increase visitors. She let them know that they have a new executive director named Ann Dowdy. This year they are celebrating their 15th year. 3. Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Association Tracy Baird stated that the intent of this organization is to assist in stabilizing the economy through good bookkeeping practices and fraud prevention. She gave information about their recent growth, the number of Ashland -based participants, and the national attention they have received. She stated that they are hosting a fraud fair for local businesses Group asked how many attendees at are expected at the fraud fair? She stated that last year they had a one -hour speaker and over 45 attendees and a vendor fair with over 120 in attendance. They expect to grow the numbers next year. 4. The Green Bag Solution /Neighborhood Food Project Both Moran and Darrow disclosed that they are connected to the Neighborhood Food Project through their connection to the Ashland Food Bank, which the Food Project supports. Steve Russo stated that this is a documentary premiering at the Ashland Independent Film Festival this weekend. He gave an overview of the food project history and how the documentary came to be made and how it can be used in other communities. He gave information about how they would use the funds to improve the film and get it out to a wider audience. He gave information about how the film can help both increase support of the Neighborhood Food Project and help other communities start similar programs. S. The Rogue Initiative for a Vital Economy (THRIVE) Tom Doolittle and Kevin Talbert gave some history of THRIVE. They gave information about some of their local community partners and programs. Stated that the Rogue Flavor publication is their main program, and it will be distributed this year the week after Easter. Mr. Doolittle stated that this year they are requesting assistance in both economic development and sustainability categories and outlined how they fit into both of those categories. Slattery stated that the lack of questions being asked by the group isn't a reflection on interest levels, but more on the fact they the group has read the applications and already has a good understanding of many of the projects, events, and organizations in this process. 6 Ashland Gallery Association Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 3 of 10 Elan Gombart and Sarah Burns thanked the city for the history of support. Ms. Gombart gave an overview of how the AGA collaborates with artists and businesses and the ways in which they are growing. She stated that funds requested will help economic viability and tourism. She gave details on some of their events including the First Friday Artwalk, the Gallery Guide, Open Studio Tours, and A Taste of Ashland. Rosenthal asked if they know how many people attend First Friday Artwalks or A Taste of Ashland? Ms. Burns stated that they know between 600 - 900 attend A Taste of Ashland because they sell tickets. First Friday Artwalks are harder to track, as it's a wandering group of attendees. They have attempted to do this through surveys but haven't been very successful. Rosenthal encouraged them and all other groups to find a way to find this out so that they can say for every dollar given to an organization, they return X amount of dollars to the community. That's what all groups should strive for because it's hard to argue with those statistics. He encouraged AGA to do that this year. 7. Rogue Valley Farm to School Tracy Harding stated that they are requesting support for the Siskiyou Challenge. She stated that the race brings in people from around the country. Other activities that they are asking for funds to support are programs in the Ashland School District. She described some of the programs in the schools. Stromberg asked why their requests are nearly always the same each year and why she doesn't feel the need to ask for more than what they are likely to receive. Ms. Harding stated that as she's asking for funding for the same programs, there was no reason to inflate the request. Additionally, she recognizes that there are many organizations all looking for funding. 8. Southern Oregon Film Society Kathy Dombi stated that this is the 16th year of the Film Festival. She gave an overview of the events which were occurring today. She stated that they expect to sell about 20k tickets this year. She stated that 80% of attendees will go to restaurant, 40% to local shop, 12% will stay overnight. She gave an overview of their community support, including the Oregon Trail program. Also, they bring in filmmakers from around the world. This year they co-curated show at the Schneider Museum and are doing a program with ScienceWorks. Beyond the April Film Festival, they also have World Film Week in October. Stromberg asked what is the vision for the future of the Film Festival? He wondered if they would like to grow or if they feel they are at a size appropriate for this area. Ms. Dombi stated that there is a push to expand but they do recognize there are limits such as venues available and the expense of marketing outside of the region. Stromberg stated that are the number and size of the venues the real limit to their growth? Ms. Dombi stated no, it's more the expense of expanding their marking efforts to reach outside the area. 9. Mt. Ashland Association Hiram Towle stated that Mt. Ashland is in better fiscal state that previous thanks to funding from 9 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 4 of 10 the City. Increased skier visits and have lots of big projects underway for the next year. Thanked the group for past support Michael Stringer gave overview of the ways last year's grant was used. Moran asked since last year allocation was $7000, but your request this year is $20,000, if you don't get full funding what would the funding be used for? Mr. Stringer stated that it would be used for the ski shuttle program because it has such a direct link to Ashland. Moran asked if they have looked into marketing or co -marketing with the Ashland Chamber or the Bed and Breakfast Association to enhance the numbers of people coming to or staying in Ashland? Stringer stated that they have a program called the Lift Lodge program which does that. 10. Ashland New Plays Festival James Pagliasotti stated that they are in their 26t" season and are nearing the halfway point in a five-year funding plan. The new fielding has served to expand both quality and quantity of the plays and increased the involvement of volunteers in the community. He gave an overview of how past grants were used and what they were able to leverage through being able to use the City of Ashland name. IL Southern Oregon Repertory Singers Phyllis Fernland stated that they have been active for 32 years and are the only semi-professional choral group in the Rogue Valley. She stated that they are hoping to be one of the cultural magnets in the area. She gave an overview of how they have grown in attendance and number of programs they can offer. About 200 high school students and their families get free ticket vouchers and transportation to their concerts. She gave an overview of the other programs they will be doing this year. Stromberg asked what enables them to bring in such high-level performers to such a small organization far from a larger city? Ms. Fernland stated that their director, Paul French, has a fabulous reputation and lots of very good contacts. Others come because they love performing in the SOU recital hall. 12. Chamber Music Concerts Larry Cooper stated that while they are an affiliate of the SOU Foundation, they are a completely separate organization with a separate board and only use SOU Foundation for some accounting assistance. Funds for this grant help to provide chamber music otherwise unavailable to the community. He gave an overview of their upcoming season. Will be using any grant funding for education outreach to schools and Mountain Meadows. Stromberg asked for some additional information regarding their education outreach. Mr. Cooper stated that the purpose of the outreach is to bring the world of chamber music to people who otherwise wouldn't have exposure. Stromberg asked if they have any indication of the outreach program success? Mr. Cooper stated that they frequently get letters from students and teachers who are motivated to learn more about music or go further in their music education. 13. Lomakatsi Restoration Project 10 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 5of10 Marko Bey stated that they group may have noticed the helicopter work they assisted with as a partner in the AFR project. They are asking for funding this year for the Youth Training and Employment Program and are expecting 20 young people and two tribal governments to participate this year. Belinda Brown gave an overview of what the students gain through this program. Sheila Carter stated that part of the funding request is also their education programs in the Ashland Schools. This program has been going on for over 20 years and is an important part of their interactions with the community. Moran asked how this request relates to the economic development category? Ms. Carter stated that the training they do with the youth is career development and they are paid $11/hour for their work. They also do interviews and other job training for the youth participants. Rosenthal asked how many years have they done the youth training for the watershed? Ms. Carter stated that this will be the fifth year. Rosenthal asked how do you measure success? Ms. Carter stated that it's measured both in on the ground work completed, enthusiasm of students, and evaluations provided by participants and their parents. Rosenthal asked if they knew what participants from five years ago are doing now? Mr. Bey stated that they are keeping track of those students and some are returning to mentor this year's participants. 14. Friends of the Schneider Museum of Art Scott Malbaurn stated that the Museum is a contributor to the art community and this year their request is focused on the economic development of community. Last year had 14k visitors, 63% come from out of town, with 41 % coming from 50+ miles away. These visitors come year-round. This year they are look for funds to expend their marketing efforts to increase the visitor numbers. Stromberg asked how they plan to expand attendance? Mr. Malbaurn stated that they would like to expanded marketing efforts, including two billboards on I-5. Additionally, they are hoping to help locals understand the museum is here for local community through things like the Sneak Preview, Rogue Valley Messenger, etc. Moran thanked him for being clear on how many people are visiting and how previous grant funding helped the Museum. Moran also asked what the Museum would do without full funding and how would they measure success without the full amount requested? Mr. Malbaurn stated that they are very familiar with grant funding limits and would seek other grant opportunities. Darrow asked how much of their funding comes from SOU? Mr. Malbaurn stated that about 15% of total budget comes from SOU. Darrow asked how they determine billboard locations? Mr. Malbaurn stated that mostly it was about what billboard spaces are available in locations likely to reach people who are unaware of the museum. 15. Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon Sharon Wilson thanked the group for their previous support. She stated that this is the 301h anniversary concert season. She gave information on their planned performances. She stated that they offer full scholarships to 35-40% of their performers. 11 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 6 of 10 16. Rogue World Music Val Rogers stated that Rogue World Music is a young organization, whose mission is to bring community and cultural awareness through world music. She gave an overview of the participants in their programs. She stated that what sets them apart is their focus on world music traditions. They hope this year to work in partnership with two other multicultural organizations; Unity Drum and Dance and Ballet Folklorico. The $5000 request would help leverage and additional $15,000 for a series of seven events in the fall of 2017. She gave details of those proposed events. Moran asked if they applied for grant funding last year? Ms. Rogers stated that they did not as she is new to the organization. Rosenthal thanked her for the clarity regarding of how they can leverage the grant funds and how they will objectively measure success. 17. Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM) Ginny Auer thanked the group for previous support. She gave overview of how funds used in the past. She stated that SOFaM supports and promotes the production, education and economic impact of film and media in Southern Oregon. She stated that the community of filmmakers is growing and gave examples of how that community is supporting each other as well as increasing the economy of Southern Oregon. Rosenthal asked if they are finding any confusion or challenges with their name being so similar to Southern Oregon Film Society? Ms. Auer stated that's probably more of a question for them, but she thinks they are typically known more by the Ashland Independent Film Festival. Stromberg asked what are the distinctive characteristic of filming in Oregon? Ms. Auer stated that, unlike many filming locations, Oregon plays for Oregon. People see Oregon on film and come here specifically for what they see on the screen. Moran asked if there is one thing Ashland could do to help SOFaM better monetize the organization what would it be? Ms. Auer stated that beyond hiring an Executive Director, funds should go for marketing. Most of what they have done have been free opportunities, but getting awareness of we have to offer. They have seen an increase in people coming to them and leaving surprised by what they find here in regard to local talent and skills. Another thing the City could do is consider incentives for filmmakers to film here could be a really exciting opportunity. 18. Dancing People Company Jessica Klinke stated that they are a the only non-profit in the area providing dance performance and educational opportunities. Hoping to hold a dance festival in 2018 and are requesting support for the free community events planned for the festival. She gave an overview of the three free events. Furuichi asked how many participants would participate? Ms. Klinke stated that they expect 60 registered participants, not including the artists and dance companies performing and providing the education opportunities. Furuichi asked what types of venues they would likely use for these 12 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 7 of 10 events. Ms. Klinke stated that they are working on a partnership with SOU and for the free events the armory and the bandshell in Lithia Park. Stromberg asked when an organization decides to participate, are they paying to participate or are you paying them? Ms. Klinke stated that they would pay artists and teachers but participants pay to attend and take classes. They would also like to incorporate other studios and businesses in the festival. 19. Modern Roots Foundation Dee Fretwell stated that it is their mission to connect low income children with music. She stated that they are focusing on the over 1,000 children who are at or under poverty levels who are in need of tangible access to music and music education. They currently have 30 students in Ashland receiving weekly lessons, which equates to 400 hours per year. They also hold an annual spring break strings camp. The lessons occur year-round and the students carry these lessons throughout their lifetime. She stated that their request this year is higher than in previous years due to the desire to accommodate the children currently on their waitlist. Stromberg asked what is the age range of the children they serve. Ms. Fretwell stated that it's 8 to 18 years of age. 20. Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network Runkel reiterated his conflict of interest. Ellen Campbell and Lisa Beach thanked the group for their time and effort in this process and for previous funding. Gave overview of use of previous funds and how they want to continue to expand their marketing efforts for not just the bed and breakfasts, but for all activities in and around Ashland. Read an excerpt of a letter of support from the OSF Marketing Manager for the Network's marketing strategy. Furuichi asked if they are coordinating with the Visitors and Conventions Bureau (VCB)? Ms. Campbell stated that ABBN is a member of the VCB and members of the ABBN are also on the board of the VCB. They were asked this question several years ago and decided that as a part of their work they would have representation on the VCB. Furuichi stated that he would like to see funding for tourism groups to go through the VCB. Ms. Campbell stated that she doesn't think that this occurs, but doesn't know for sure. Most of the bed and breakfasts are members of the Chamber. Furuichi stated that it would be nice if it was a coordinated effort and if all shared resources. Moran agreed that he wished there was more synergy between the Chamber, VCB and the ABBN to promote tourism and assets like our bed and breakfasts. Stromberg asked if their marketing was targeted specifically at the types of people who stay in only in bed and breakfasts? Ms. Campbell stated, no, they promote everything that a tourist might want to do in Ashland; events, theater, wineries, etc. The more people who come, the more people will stay in all lodging, including the bed and breakfasts. Gave information about some of their programs and contests. 13 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 8 of 10 Ms. Campbell informed the group that there was an error on her application. The Economic Development request should be $6,000 and the Tourism request should be $24,000. She apologized for the mix-up. 21. Ashland Culture of Peace Commission David Wick stated that the proposal is a major step toward making Ashland an official City of Peace. The funds would go for a strategic plan, monument, and a peace festival. He described their plans and the various groups they are working with in the planning process. Mr. Wick gave information regarding the Culture of Peace originators and their previous work and volunteer experience. He stated that this could be another tourism draw for Ashland. Moran asked what metrics would be used to determine success? Mr. Wick stated that this request is the big bold step forward and is a request for the strategic planning and research for building to the 2018 world peace monument installation. The measurement would be the plans and the meeting time with Council and the Chamber. Ultimately, having the events would be significant but they don't have a baseline at the moment. Moran asked what kind of modeling or projections were used to get to the 90k request? Mr. Wick stated that they estimated 15k per month for the baseline organizing strategic planning for now until June of 2018 in preparation for their event in September of 2018. Rosenthal asked if the Culture of Peace is engaged in any kind of political activity? Mr. Wick stated that they are a non -political organization, working for the community as a whole. 22. Rogue Valley Peace Choir Julie Rayfield informed the group that their mission is to create and enhance a culture of peace. They sing to advocate for a healthy planet and social justice. They are a 90 member, mostly senior, non -audition choir. She stated that they sing for free at all their events. She gave an overview of their recent performances and performance locations. She stated that this request is for help to produce a bi-state choir event and make it an annual event. Additionally, they are requesting funds for equipment to continue performing. 23. Lotus Rising Project Mario Fregoso state that the Lotus Rising Project is taking over the Rogue Valley Pride Event from SOPride. He stated that they are envisioning an event that's more than just the parade. He gave an overview of some of their event from last year. Additionally, they would like to expand marketing further into the state of Oregon and by using a media consultant. He stated that in the last three months, participation in their group has tripled, so they see a good opportunity to expand the event. Stromberg asked what demographics are the focus of the organization? Mr. Fregoso stated that currently mostly focused on youth but now expanding in to adult services. Darrow asked for clarity between the statements that they are experiencing growth in interest yet 14 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 9 of 10 don't have enough volunteers to handle all the tasks. Mr. Fregoso stated that last year there was a lack of volunteers because they only took over the Pride Events three months before they occurred and needed more time to engage volunteers. 24. Geos Institute Tonya Graham stated that last month City Council approved the Climate and Energy Action Plan, which sets forth very aggressive targets. They are hopeful that the City will hire a full time employee to implement the plan but they also recognize that the plan is too broad for the City to do it by itself. The Plan requires assistance from the community to implement plan. Hoping to use funds for a community engagement plan with specific focus on the business community. She gave details of what they would like to do in that engagement plan. Stromberg stated he is interested in how they plan to coordinate with the City or proposed commission? Ms. Graham stated that this depends on how the commission is put together. If it's useful, they would be happy to have a staff member on the commission. The goal is to be complimentary to the City's efforts. Rosenthal asked, if grant funds are given, how would the City be involved in Geos' messaging? How would Geos stay "in sync" with the City's or Council's messaging? Ms. Graham stated that they are expecting to be actively engaged in some fashion with the commission. Their goal is to make sure Geos' work is complimentary and doesn't either duplicate or conflict with the City's work. Slattery stated that it seems like this would be the work of the commission or a staff person. He worried that this would be in a parallel track to the CEAP and wondered if Geos would work on a volunteer basis or only with funding? Ms. Graham stated that they have been doing volunteer work and plan to continue doing so but as the commission figures out what it's high -priorities are, Geos could bring capacity and resources to the commission's work. Whomever does this work will have an enormous task list in front of them and the City's internal goal is very aggressive and will probably take up most of their time and resources. So Geos can bring time and resources for the other goal efforts. 25. Jefferson State Choral Coalition Markita Shaw thanked group for their efforts. She stated the coalition is a community group of 50-80 singers. They are going from being a class through the continuing education program at SOU to a non-profit organization. The Choral Coalition celebrates life in America by singing popular American music. They are currently working to stabilize independence and expand the scope of their audience. She gave details of the planned performances for which they are requesting funding. The main event is a concert on July 4th, which won't compete with other regular activities that day but will enhance the day's interest. The second event is a gospel concert in the fall. Moran asked if they don't receive funding, would the Coalition still hold the 4th of July performance? Ms. Shaw stated that they are working on sponsorships, which may allow then do still hold it, likely with less marketing or more volunteer assistance required. 15 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 6, 2017 Page 10 of 10 26. Post Growth Institute Donnie Maclurcan stated that they provide support, training, and consultancy for non-profit agencies in the Rogue Valley. He gave details of their history, including assistance to 58 Ashland -based organizations. They are seeking funding for their project called, "Not For Profit Way." This is a training program to help people start, scale and sustain their projects. They currently have a long waiting list of people seeking assistance and training. He gave information on some of their proposed training. Rosenthal asked if they charge for the training sessions? Mr. Maclurcan stated that they do but they also offer many scholarships and assistance. Rosenthal asked if the scholarships are for individuals or organizations? Mr. Maclurcan stated that they are mostly for organizations, but they do occasionally have "social entrepreneur" individuals. He noted that this training has also lead to job creation in the past and gave some examples. Rosenthal asked if the classes take place in Ashland. Mr. Maclurcan stated that they do. 27. Brava! Opera Theater Lorrie Hall stated that they were founded in 2010, and are one of only three opera organizations in Oregon. She gave an overview of recent concerts, competitions, and classes. She stated that they are requesting support for their upcoming season. She gave an overview of the previous season. In the upcoming season they will be performing, "Carousel." She thanked the group for their consideration. Moran asked why the group doesn't charge for their events? Ms. Hall stated that they charge for everything, with the exception of 150 free youth tickets. Stromberg asked if it was accurate that they gave away 30k in prizes? Ms. Hall stated that this was over the course of seven years of competitions. 6. Adjournment Runkel gave overview of the next steps in the process. Meeting adjourned at 8:23 p.m. Respectfully submitted, Diana Shiplet Administrative Analyst 16 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 13, 2017 Page 1 of 5 MINUTES FOR THE ASHLAND CITIZENS BUDGET COMMITTEE ECONOMIC, CULTURAL, TOURISM, AND SUSTAINABILITY GRANTS SUBCOMMITTEE Thursday, April 13, 2017 Council Chambers, 1175 E. Main Street 1. Call to Order David Runkel called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m. 2. Attendance Sub -Committee members John Stromberg, Garrett Furuichi, Rich Rosenthal, Dennis Slattery, Traci Darrow, and David Runkel were present. Sub -Committee member Shaun Moran was absent. Staff member Adam Hanks was present. 3. Staff Report Hanks informed the group that each member has been handed a hard copy of the combined spreadsheet of all their individual allocations. As part of the spreadsheet there is an averaging of all the allocations, which the group can use as a starting point for final allocations, if they so choose. He reminded the group that at the last meeting Rosenthal suggested that they go applicant by applicant and find consensus. Hanks will track changes to the allocations live. He reminded the group of the final total goal and the need to meet the minimum amount of tourism allocation as laid out in Resolution 2017-03. Group agreed to work through line by line on the allocations. 4. Public Forum None 5. Allocations I. Rogue Valley Symphony Association. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5400 non -tourism and $1707 tourism for $7107.total. 2. Science Works Hands -On Museum Rosenthal stated that the amount of the average is about what they received in years. past. Stromberg stated that it's $5000 less than last year. Group discussed whether this reduction is appropriate, given they are a major driver of tourism. Group agreed to come back to this applicant after the others have been allocated, to potentially make an adjustment. For now, they tentatively agree to $7558 non -tourism and $17,601 tourism, for a total of $25,159. 3. Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Association Group agreed that as the minimum award is $5000, but the group average allocation came in well below this total, they will not allocate anything this year. 4.. The Green Bag Solution /Neighborhood Food Project Group tentatively agreed to $6000, all in non -tourism. S. THRIVE 17 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 13, 2017 Page 2 of 5 Group tentatively agreed to allocate $13,600, all in non -tourism. 6. Ashland Gallery Association Group tentatively agreed to allocate $8533 in non -tourism and $5300 in tourism, for a total of $13,833. 7. Rogue Valley Farm to School The initial allocation was $7400 in non -tourism and $3400 in tourism, for a total of $10,800, Rosenthal mentioned that he thought it was courageous of them to mention that they actually reduced their request this year, as usually the strategy is to ask for way more in hopes that you actually get what you really need. He thinks this honesty is reflected in the allocations being a very high percentage of what they requested. Group agreed to return to this allocation at the end for reconsideration. 8. Southern Oregon Film Society The initial group allocation was $9800 in non -tourism and $10,000 in tourism, for a total of $19,800. Stromberg stated that last year they received $26,000, so this amount feels low. Group agreed to come back to this one for reconsideration. 9. Mt. Ashland Association Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3 800 in non -tourism and $7800 in tourism, for a total of $11,600. 10. Ashland New Plays Festival Group tentatively agreed to allocate $4530 in non -tourism and $1500 in tourism, for a total of $6030. 11. Southern Oregon Repertory Singers Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism. 12. Chamber Music Concerts Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism. 13. Lomakatsi Restoration Project Rosenthal noted that the average allocation of $18,000 is about $3000 over last year's allocation. Stromberg stated that he is okay with it as the project is such a winner that when they are talking to other groups about funding for AFR, the Lomakatsi work is helpful for getting support and funding. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $18,000, all in non -tourism. 14. Friends of the Schneider Museum of Art Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5300 in non -tourism and $3600 in tourism, for a total of $8900. Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subconnuittee April 13, 2017 Page 3 of 5 15. Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon The initial average allocation was $6200..Slattery made a request to round it up to $7000 and stated that they fill a niche that's needed in the community. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $7000, all in non -tourism. 16. Rogue World Music Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in non -tourism. 17. Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM) Group tentatively agreed to allocate $9000 in non -tourism and $4200 in tourism, for a total of $13,200. 18. Dancing People Company Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3000 in non -tourism and $2000 in tourism, for a total of $5000. 19. Modern Roots Foundation Group tentatively agreed to allocate $4800 in non -tourism and $1100 in tourism, for a total of $5900. 20. Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network The initial allocation was $1200 in non -tourism; $10,900 in tourism, for a total of $12,900. Rosenthal requested that Furuichi explain how he determined his allocation, as it varied so greatly from the rest. Furuichi explained his process. Rosenthal suggested that the group allocate $10,000 as it's more in line with previous allocations. Furuichi stated his frustration with information received from staff regarding the history of the allocations by category. Staff apologized for misunderstanding his request and stated they don't think the level of detail he is requesting has been saved for previous years, but staff they will make a note for future processes. Slattery stated that he would like a post-mortem on the process to make improvements for next year. He additionally clarified the difference between the Chamber of Commerce and the Visitors and Convention Bureau (VCB) and how the Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network are connected to the VCB. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $10,000, all in tourism. 21. Ashland Culture of Peace Commission Group discussed the challenge of new groups not necessarily understanding the process or what an appropriate request might be. They appreciated the on -the -ground work the group has been doing and hope that the funding they choose to give may help them leverage funding from other sources. Group raised concerns on how they might report success on a strategic plan versus a specific event which could have specific metrics. Most of the group agreed that the Peace Commission apply next year for event funding, as it will occur after the next funding cycle. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000, all in tourism. Group discussed whether they need to require that the Commission bring back information regarding what they will do with this 19 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 13, 2017 Page 4 of 5 amount considerably lower than the initial request. 22. Rogue Valley Peace Choir. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $2000 in non -tourism and $3000 in tourism, for a total of $5000. 23. Lotus Rising Project Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000 in non -tourism and $1600 in tourism, for a total of $6600. 24. Geos Institute Rosenthal stated that he is concerned. that this request is premature but thinks there could be a good opportunity to partner with Geos next year. Group tentatively agreed to no funding this year. 25. Jefferson State Choral Coalition The initial allocation was $3000. Group discussed whether it was appropriate to fund an event which is occurring on July 4t', which already has a high level of tourism. Group agreed that they have other events in the year which could use the funding. 26. Post Growth Institute Slattery stated that he thinks the work they intended to do with not -for profits is a suitable idea to fund. Group tentatively agreed to allocate $5000 in non -tourism. 27. Brava! Opera Theater Group tentatively agreed to allocate $3700 in non -tourism and $1300 in tourism, for a total of $6600. Group discussed how close they are in the needed allocations. Group agreed to increase the Rogue Valley Farm to School allocation to a total of $12,000. Furuichi requested that they allocate the minimum of $5000 to Jefferson State Choral Coalition. Group agreed to this request. Group discussed whether they want to increase funding for the Southern Oregon Film Society, THRIVE, or ScienceWorks. Group discussed whether they needed to remove the tentative funding from The Peace Commission in order to make a significant difference in these three organizations. Group discussed whether they need to give the film festival more funding as they are a significant tourist driver in the city. Furuichi stated that he feels the opposite, that he thinks they should be an example of a group no longer needing significant funding because of their success. 20 Minutes for the Citizens Budget Committee ECTS Grants Subcommittee April 13, 2017 Page 5 of 5 Rosenthal/Slattery m/s to allocate remaining balance of $4385 to the Southern Oregon Film Society. Discussion: none. Voice Vote: All Ayes. Motion Passes. Runkel stated this shows how challenging this process is and how appreciative they are of all the applicants and the work they do. Darrow/Rosenthal m/s recommend the final allocation to the Budget Committee. Roll call vote: Ayes: four, Nays: zero Motion Passes. 6. Adjournment Meeting adjourned at 7:07 p.m. Respectfully submitted, Diana Shiplet Administrative Analyst 21 22 CITY OF ASHLAND DATE: May 23, 2017 TO: Citizens Budget Committee FROM: Adam Hanks, Interim Asst to the City Administrator RE: ETCS Grants Allocations Consistent with long standing practice, a sub -committee of the Citizens Budget Committee was formed to review and recommend allocation of the Economic, Tourism, Cultural and Sustainability Grants funds. These funds are a combination of tourism restricted and unrestricted Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT or Lodging Tax) revenues that are allocated by Council via resolution, most recently Resolution 2017-03 passed and adopted March 7, 2017. The attached spreadsheet reflects the sub -committee's recommended allocation of the $227,007 total allocation available. However, due to a formula error in the spreadsheet used to track the allocations made by the sub -committee, one cell was left out of the total award which resulted in the final recommended allocation being $7,107 over the $227,007. In addition to a request for the full Budget Committee to review and approve the attached allocation, staff is requesting that the Budget Committee recommend how to address the overage of $7,107. Options include: Using $7,107 of the Economic Development Program funds, which is generated from the same TOT resolution using non restricted TOT revenue. Using $7,107 of the General Fund ending fund balance Reducing the year two grant allocation from $229,703 to $222,596 Staff apologizes for this oversight that was not identified until after the sub -committee had adjourned their final meeting. City of Ashland ADMINISTRATION DEPT 20 East Main St Ashland, Oregon 97520 www.ashland.orms adam@ashland.or.us ashland.or.us Tel: 541-552-2046 Fax: 541488-5311 TTY: 800-735-2900 23 24 ECTS Grant History GENERALFUND ECTS Grants Supported by Resolution No. Agency and Program Name Ashland Art Center Ashland Bed and Breakfast Network Ashland Culture of Peace Commission Ashland Gallery Association Ashland New Plays Festival, Inc. Ashland Schools Foundation Ashland Supportive Housing and Community Outreach Below Stairs Productions Brava! Opera Theater Chamber Music Concerts Dancing People Company Geos Institute Holistic Science Institute Jefferson State Choral Coalition Klamath Bird Observatory KSKQ 89.5FM Community Radio Lomakatsi Restoration Project Lotus Rising Project Modem Roots Foundations Mt Ashland Association Multicultural Assoc of Southern Oregon Osher Life Long Learning Institute Pollinator Project Rogue Valley Post Growth Institute Rogue Farm Corps. Rogue Valley Farm to School Rogue Calley Peace Choir Rogue Valley Symphony Association Rogue World Ensemble Rogue World Music Schneider Museum of Art, SOU Foundation ScienoeWorks Hands -On Museum Siskiyou Singers Siskiyou Violins SOPride, Inc. Southern Oregon Bookkeepers Assoc. Southern Oregon Film and Media (SOFaM) Southern Oregon Film Society (formerly Ashland Independent Film Festival) Southern Oregon Repertory Singers St. Clair Productions Stories Alive Sustainable Valley Technology Group The Green Bag Solution Thrive TreeHouse Secret Book Club and ArtNow Youth Symphony of Southern Oregon Ashland Chamber of Commerce Oregon Shakespeare Festival Total FY14.15 FY15-16 FY16.17 FY17-18 FY18.19 Requested Adopted Requested Adopted Requested Adopted Requested Adopted Requested Ado ted $462,060 $214,390 $602,877 $209,112 $1,426,483 $225,122 $570,905 $234,114 Resolution #2013-05 Resolution #2015-04 Resolution #2015- Resolution #2017-03 Resolution #2017-03 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16.17 FY17.18 FY18.19 Re uested Awarded Requested Awarded Requested Awa Re uested Awarded Re uested Awarded $25,000 $9,700 $25,000 $11,000 $25,000 $9,500 $19,900 $9,700 $26,965 $5,000 $26,000 $8,833 $30,000 $10,000 $90,000 $5,000 $35,000 $9,700 $30,000 $12,000 $32,000 $12,667 $32,000 $13,833 $18,000 $6,700 $25,000 $6,000 $11,000 $5,850 $12,000 $6,030 $5,000 $0 $12,800 $5,000 $10,000 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $12,000 $5,000 $9,000 $5,000 $11,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $27,040 $10,000 $50,000 $0 $20,000 $0 $214,000 $0 $5,000 $5,000 $25,000 $14,700 $25,000 $12,000 $22,000 $14,485 $12,280 $0 $23,000 $12,700 $20,000 $12,763 $30,000 $15,166 $25,000 $18,000 $10,000 $6,600 $7,000 _'$0 $13,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,900 $20,000 $6,667 $20,000 $11,600 $15,000 $0 $17,500 $0 $10,850 $0 $15,000 $5,000 $10,300; $8,700 $11,000 $10,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $12,000 $7,875 $0 $7,605 $5,000 $14,000 $7,725 $15,000 $6,165 $15,000 $6,500 $20,000 $7,107 $5,000 $5,000 $30,000 $0 $6,000 $5,000 $7,500 $5,000 $42,300 $8,900 $43,000 $34,700 $48,000 $33,194 $46,000 $29,788 $45,000 $25,159 $9,670 $0 $10,000 $0 $14,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 $0 $10,000 $0 $15,000 $7,700 $24,000 $10,000 $24,000 $14,000 $30,000 $13,200 $45,000 $27,200 $40,000 $25,000 $35,000 $26,000 $35,000 $24,185 $5,000 $5,000 $10,000 $0 $12,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 $5,000 $11,200 $5,000 $5,200 $5,000 $12,000 $5,000 $7,344 - $5,000 $27,710 $8,950 $25,507 $7,000 $45,000 $11,333 $10,000 $6,000 $30,000 $26,215 $40,000 $20,000 $40,000 $17,333 $20,000 $13,600 $13,850 $5,000 $9,000 $5,000 $8,000 $5,000 $8,500 $5,000 $8,000 $7,000 $462,060 $214,390 $520,912 $225,122 $748,019 $225,122 $550,905 $234,114 $0 $0 $320,196 $380,290 �$399,305 ��$�431,239$110,000 $110,000 $644,5861 $715,4121 $734,4271 $775,353 $0 25 26 Attachment 1 Position Costing Details 27 q-*j lit H $ q pN�§ = Y� ae y ysc Y aC 5 ffi wm e a 4 ivg I g � , "s 8$ s R $ffi8'S R kffis$ s's'ffi'a EEa'aR s s��8 s ena�� a a $� ,., '• mSS �' "'ffi S ''�"$£."ffi $ & 843ffiR E 'w" ffiS$ $ 8 � 11— R L.'G 29 IR BE IR cli ON c,,f c,� Ef O ti 7E 0 0 O. cj CD 0, CD >, 0 CD S2 E E E -2 0 C-) :r 30 § 31 § 3 32 Hifflff3� bpi Hi, I I��3 3��a qJ gga 5'39 ykk 4: : aan�eae� enaao� � a�a�aiw�bmK4�s a=rEy; �� 333aa�a�a� -a�a� g� nn 9650 � a nn wwuu WW P�.P.P� Y.'YS M 9c 8 & da3ISfl281&NI iO A J Sa'SR9 '8 aesa�s a a sa a'-.am�un�s 3 e � e e ®ac;=aye&>;a d nav�sL7 a a 3 ® B'��2322a3�d a a ^�$238 � a�azssfl w. ned � S flascsd $ ? a 'a aBasas2aa a a sa9aa F0F ® s a a a 9 2aa a 9 a a y aAaeUe sa=w 'u see 33 x �m s ON 11 E_ q�q 8 8 8 $$8,8 H11118, ossoo��00000 sassasa,asap,s�t �h €d dKollul 34 A a a � e � m�Annnn��nAnna�ss� o VnYPM'�"— sp T: 5 m m m m W w w -- v�,�NamPm 0 3 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . z -I -I I -- $ m 8 8 8 m 8 e 8 8 --- 8 6� 8-- 4 N � m s _ - $ S S 8 8 8 $$$ 8 8 8 8$ 8$$ 8 8$$$ 8 $ 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8$ 8 $ S o 35 8 8 8 8 8 8 S$ 8 8 8 8 8 8$ 8 $ $ $ $ m a A $-- 8 8 8 8 $ $ $ $ o o $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 8 8 S S $ $ $ $ 8 $ 8 S S8 ¢$ --- -AAA$- o,veo� me.evavo, a,e 8 88s 8 888 8 8 8 e v o e o e e e n� sa sam d, 88S;m oossoo_0000s000s' 8 RS ei, � 8 $ ag say ��sn avv� s s ��o s s s s $ a a ux n o$o m$�m�sssx � s s s s s. 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I am a junior at Ashland High School and I live at 922 Morton I am here to stress the importance of funding a permanent full-time staff position to keep Ashland accountable and to ensure our success of lowering climate emissions. I would also like to thank everyone on the budget committee, the city councilors, and the mayor for the work that you put into our community. Two years ago, my family and I moved across the United States so that we could live in Ashland. My mom and dad were awestruck and amazed by the natural beauty of Southern Oregon. Lush forests, towering mountains, and lakes that never deviated from their brilliant blue color. The first thing I noticed about Ashland when I moved here was how active everyone was. The variation of ages that ran alongside me in my first Oregon 5k ranged from elementary school kids to senior citizens. I was taken aback at the genuine sense of community in Ashland, I was even more amazed that I was outrun by more senior citizens than I could count. I love running in Ashland, but its placement in the Rogue Valley makes it susceptible to gathering large amounts of smoke that doesn't clear out quickly. Ashland community members, including myself, are worried about running in times like the summer or the fall seasons when the valley fills with fire smoke so dense that the only thing we see in the sky is a discolored sun.The Ashland Climate Report Projections indicate the number of warm spell days per year in Ashland is likely to increase by between 11 to 66 days by 2050 and 18 to 136 days by 2080. One study estimated that the Pacific Northwest regional area burned per year would increase by roughly 900 square miles by 2040 (Littell et al., 2013). I remember when my cross country practices were cancelled last year for a week because the smoke was unbearable and unhealthy to run in. I am fearful that if I stay in town for college and go to Southern Oregon University that I won't be able to run or even walk to school year round. If we don't follow through with our actions, or if city council pushes to wait to fund the climate and energy plan staff position, commission, and pass the ordinance; climate change will only get more difficult and more expensive to reverse and make the transition to clean energy a grueling task. Nonetheless, I am hopeful that the funding for a full-time staff person will allow Ashland to reach their goal in lowering overall emissions for our community to do its part in mitigating Worst impacts of climate change. I urge you to please consider my future and the future of my friends today when voting for the climate and energy action plan staff person. Thank you all again. As you might know, Climate Change is one of the most drastic issues facing our world today. It threatens all of our futures as well as the future of our children and grandchildren. However, I don't want to just talk about the dangers posed to our community by Climate Change, I want to talk about the opportunity that Climate Change presents us with. I'm aware that as the budget committee for our town you have to make hard choices to keep our city fiscally responsible, however, I want to present the actions we need to take to mitigate Climate Change as not just necessary for the protection of our futures, but also an investment into our community. While changes in our energy system, transportation and consumption are needed to decrease our emissions, they will also save money over the long term. Implementing tools such as smart grid technology into our utility system will conserve electricity and water, saving the community money in a era where the price of water is predicted to rise. Other changes such as a better transportation system and more efficient housing will lower the cost of living in our community by cutting down on transportation and electricity costs. Finally, the more we consume local goods and services the more we are investing in local jobs in our community. These changes to our infrastructure and culture are not just things that we need to be doing to mitigate Climate Change, these are changes we should be making anyway for the improvement of our community. As a resident of Ashland I recognize that the responsibility for these changes fall as much upon me as upon anyone else, and I also realize that I will probably be working to help this process of changing our infrastructure for the rest of my life. However, as a resident I am also telling you that community members alone cannot bring about all these changes effectively. The data, coordination and information that a city position can give us are Irreplaceable and essential, and needs to be provided as soon as possible. This will be a hard job. This will be ajob that will have to coordinate different community groups with city operations while factoring in other necessary changes that the city needs. This is also a job that cannot fail, because if we do fail, the future of our community will be in jeopardy. That is why this is such a necessary position that needs to be well funded. Allocating funding for this position is not just fulfilling part of the Climate and Energy plan that the city passed unanimously this march, it is an investment into the future of Ashland. This is an essential position to coordinate the community efforts to create a sustainable infrastructure and wi ll ill pay itself back over the long-term. So thank i you for your time, and please fund this position so we can begin this important work. Hello my name is Niho|as L|ndmuer, | live ot32O Oxford 8t, and am a senior atAshland High School. Thank you Budget Committee and the City Council for all 8fthe work you do. |amhere tO testify in favor of the funding for a new full-time administrative staff position tomanage and oversee the climate and energy action plan. VVHuse oil now because it's cheap and available, but the technology exists for alternative fuel production. Oil consumption has been flat -lining O[declining iDrecent years. Crude oil prices have grew 76 percent last year and [G8Ched_$828barrel ODOct. 21.This has caused demand b}g0 down .8% in a year. Demand for solar, on the other hand, has increased as energy collection and storage technology improves. As oil reserves dry up, a transition to renevvab|8G become inevit@b|e, and there are 2 pretty good reasons 1Ostart now. First, because renewablesare more localized than carbon giants that produce our energy today, the money goes back into our local economy instead Ofthe pockets Ofsome coal mining Oroil drilling companies. The second reason is it's important to be ahead of the curve on this transition, because the more we invest in sustainable now the better off we'll be when we can no longer buy coal and oil. Price shocks are happening now and will only get worse, so the more independent ashland's energy supply is, the more stable our economy will be. Making our city more solar friendly can also develop the necessary industries for the future in@Sh|8Ddlike solar. QOwhen vveforce 8shift tUmore sustainable energy production like equally powerful but carbon neutral sO|Ur, we set ourselves up to baoOmm |a@d8ra of energy production in the future. MVsecond point iGmore long term, and it's that greenhouse gasses are terrible for the eCDDODly' High temperatures cause droughts, which intensify wildfire seasons and cause dust storms, killing crops even in our own Rogue Valley. Global warming also intensifies hurricanes and tropical storms, because they can pick up more energy from a warmer ocean before they hit land. CO2 emissions dissolve in our oceans and kill our shellfish and warming river temperatures kill our salmon. All of these impacts individually leave families without means of supporting themselves, together they result iO8Oeconomic meltdown. 8mOre firefighter positions every 2years wouldn't benecessary ifthe Earth wasn't getting hotter and dryer because Ofhuman activities. If anyone here is worried about 8 [8% iOCFS8se. | urge them to consider when their heating and electricity bills have tripled because our city failed to transition tosuetain8b|eafast enough. You'll see climate change and our sluggish response at the root of all Ofour spending issues. Keeping iDmind proper enforcement, oversight, and success 0fthis plan will be key to avoiding fUtUn8 disaster, | believe a staff position is DeCBS8@ry SO our plan doesn't get stuck inapile Ofpaperwork. Thank you. VkC*-rrL.) My name is Harry I David and I have lived at 950 Bellview Avenue, Ashland for the to past two years. I attended the last two Ashland budget committee meetings here. I served on a "budget watchdog" committee in a major east Coast City for a few years. I had initially thought to comment on the specifics of particular presentations and to enquire about how some of the new requests for additional staff were to be funded. After reviewing the Oregon Public Employees Retirement System (PERS) I decided to focus; my comments on what appears to be the elephant in the room. None of these comments are original. The link below to the excellent article in the Oregonian of February 12, 2017 by Ted Sickenger provides valuable insight. Jhttp:/ www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/02/pe-rs 9 Sabo oregonS Dub.html May I respectfully pose some questions to the Finance Department staff to help us understand the impact of this unfunded pension fund liability - see below -- on the general Ashland taxpayer? Some of these questions reflect my own innocence of City of Ashland data. 1. What is the budget process and where is it documented? When does it start, who drives it and makes ultimate decisions, is it top - down or bottom up, etc?? Is there a hard two year budget and a softer longer term budget? 2. What will be the negotiating posture of the City for the next round of Police and Fire labor contracts? a) Will changes to employee pension fund contributions be on the table? b) Will there be moves towards changes in the current Defined Benefit plan from the current Defined Contribution plan? c) Will the 4% rate increase collar be made a hard collar? What are the risks of proceeding to binding arbitration? 3. What is the impact of various assumptions of the underfunded liabilities - see below --on the general Ashland taxpayer?? 4. Current labor contracts calculate lifetime pension benefits on the final year salary. This final year salary can be tweaked with sick pay, vacation pay (Tier 1 only), overtime pay and other emoluments to very significantly increase lifetime pensions. What are the guidelines for this process? Who controls how this is implemented? 4 (a) What were the final actual salaries for all Ashland City employees who had retired between 2012 and 2017; how do these salaries compare with the salaries used as a basis for pensions" S. What is the present value of the fully loaded pension for orle Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Ashland employee over his/her tenure-, What is the impact of this number on the various proposals for new staff additions? Could this number be as high as the Oregon PERS liability per employee -- $96.6 billion liability at 5.5% discount divided by 134,000 PERS recipients or $720,000 per employee. Is this something to consider when deciding to add new staff to the payroll? In closing, may I respectfully request that our City fathers - and mothers - apply their best minds to developing a sustainable budget that considers it's impact on the general taxpayer and on the City's future economic health. I am respectfully aware that the Council's work is no picnic and wages are less than $1/hour so I do appreciate your dedication to this public service. Respectfully submitted Harry I David May 25; 2017 Let me focus on one number that is the key to any calculation of the Oregon PERS solvency. A pension fund is 100% funded when the assets on hand, compounded by some annual rate of growth (called the discount rate) is sufficient to pay the already committed pension payments to retired and current employees. This discount rate is currently set at 7.5% per year. In 1975 Oregon legislators guaranteed employee accounts whatever the discount rate was set at, regardless of actual performance. Think of the discount rate as the long term rate of return you would expect from your investments in your 401(k) etc. Do you expect 7.5% per year going forward? Calpers has just dropped it's discount rate to 7%. Total current assets are $54.4 billion. $s in billions Discount Rate Liability Underfunding $ % UNFunded 7.5% $76.2 $21.8 29% 5.5% $96.6 $42.2 44% 3.5% $126.9 $72.5 57% 80% of these liabilities are protected from renegotiation. Currently there are 134,323 recipients in the PERS pension fund. S�'~C,r^ S�Wuu-^ Moy26, 2017 To: Budget Committee Members, City of Ashland Fr: Susan Sullivan, Resident, City of Ashland Re: Budget Item — Capital Improvement Plans, East Nevada St. Extension Over the past two years the City has heard from myself and others regarding our objections toopoorly planned, questionably funded, and environmentally damaging vehicular bridge over Bear Creek at East Nevada Street. This evening I respectfully ask that the City Council and its publicly appointed Budget Committee members look carefully at the wisdom of wasting money on a boondoggle pushed forward by the City Works Department that we will all regret. Instead, we have been requesting the City to consider building a pedestrian/bike bridge that will better serve our community, neighborhoods, and city for afraction ofthe cost. For this evening's purpose I will focus on three key reasons for our objections: Environmental: 0 There is no environmental impact statement as of yet and this will be required before we can honestly appraise the true cost and feasibility of this project. The project is in direct opposition to the City of Ashland's Climate Action Plan, the City's Transportation System Plan, and the State'sTransportation System Plan, all of which include in their primary goals to increase multi -modal transportation development. Apedestrian/bike bridge is a far better choice. I ask with great concern, if not now, when are we going to take the opportunities before ustoput our money where our mouths are incombating climate change and make the right decision tolower our carbon foot print. Community and Neighborhoods: Our City's Transportation System Plan specifically states that we value our community and neighborhoods and wish to keep our small town character. What danger to we create when we propose torun 4,OUO 10,UOOvehicles through close knit neighborhoods, past aschool, where children walk and play? Why create safety and environment hazards where could connect neighborhoods with apedestrian/bike friendly option? Government Transparency: Within the last year alone there have been several opportunities for public input. The answer has been clear. No vehicular bridge. Instead, over and over, we have asked for serious consideration for apedestrian/bike bridge. Last September, Mr. Faughttold alarge group of concerned neighbors that if a vehicular bridge was not wanted, it would not be built. Yet, Mr. Foughtcontinues tolobby for the bridge project. In February with a packed Council Chamber testifying to the Transportation Commission, the overwhelming majority expressed opposition to a vehicular bridge. Out of over 60 people attending the meeting, only 5were infavor. Two ofthem were developers. The Transportation Commission voted 6 — 0 to oppose going further with the vehicular bridge. And now, here itis again on the City's Budget proposal. And a good question is, who is going to pay for it? The answer, the very people who oppose it! VVehave toask ourselves, for whom isthis bridge being built? ifyou follow the money it isclear. This bridge is being built for developers. But who is going to pay for it? How can we afford to ask our citizens to pay for something they do not want, cannot afford, and have much higher priorities for the City's infrastructure needs? |respectfu|ly request that we look to what our priorities are and listen to people who are paying for it May 25, 2017 ASHLANI) BUDGET COMNITTTLit E llll'kslhdandOr�,,gor, 9,520 L 1:1 Ii, lL RN 11. , ASHLAND I f-­IAVr'__" BRIEF COMI'v"IENTS 'TO YOU Tl HITE. THANK YOU FOR THE HAND WORK AlNlf,­', DUE DiLIGENCI­ YOU SPEND ON THIS BUDDGE'ram 'FOR A S H L A NI D 'v`\lOULD LIKE TO BE ON RECORD 1 1 AM AGAINST HIRING 5 NEW FUI L TIME POLICE OFFICERS THE RATIONALE I ­,_OR HIRING IS ILL A`v%/ED AS MANY PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY NOTED, WE NEED _I-,() ':'.')­TLJ[,,lY MORE INNOVATIVE WAYS TO COVER THE EXPRESSED NEEDS) (2) 1 ,SUPPORT MORE ATTENTION STUDYING TVAIE LONG Tf" :_ RM RETI REMEN T9 (PERS) P /'�, C KA G E S B E IN G P Ar I D 0 U T N 011'J" A N D 1_1­11OSE PACKAGES ASHLAND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IN THE FtJTURE, I AM AGAINST BUILEIING THE E.NEVADA AUTO BRIDGE/EXTENS IOICIP PROJECT STR 201228) THANKS "I"I'RANSPOR"I"Al ION COMMISiSION FOR YOUR DUE DILlGfC__NCE OVER '18 MONT11S & VOTING (3-0 AGAINST RECOMMENDINk") IT TO Tl­6E CITY C01UNCIL, HANK YOU MAYOR AND THE CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS WHO HAVE SPENT TIME STUDYING THIS PROJECT, ON JUNE 20 WHEN THE TRANSPORTATION ("Of-JI'vUSSION MEMBER, SUE NEVv'BERRY PRESENTS THE PROJECT TO THE CITY COUNCIL, I AM ASKING YOU 'TO APPROVE rlf�: -,"C RECCA'df',01ENDATION. NO BRIDGE (5) PLEASE: CANCEL. THE BRIDGE AND CIP 5-24-2017 STAFF TO SUPPORT IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE AND Committee - ENERGY ACTION PLAN I am submitting this information in support of a full time staff position to oversee and implement the Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP). The CGAPwas created over the course of many years by numerous individuals in this room, as well as the planning experts aiCascadia Consulting. Climate change iSconsidered one ofthe top priorities ofCity Council, thus leading tothe development ofthe [EAPover the past few years. And yet, vveall know how common iti3for plans to be created just to sit on a shelf and collect dust. All of us on the CEAP Ad -hoc committee knew that that was NOT an option for this plan, AND the kids that showed up to EVERY SINGLE MEETING know that that is NOT an option for this plan. Which is why the planning process was accompanied with (1) a large kickoff event that engaged almost 1,000 people, (2) city-wide polling onclimate and energy, (3) workshops Onclimate change vulnerability, and (4) multiple large public events to engage and involve people throughout the process. The planning process itself was designed to start to build the momentum that we need fOrChange. Now vvehave this momentum. \Nehave email lists. Wghave people Onthe street and in schools talking about the plan and organizing to create action on climate change. The momentum is growing every day. We HAVE TO keep the momentum going. This is NOT the time to go back to business as usual. Our Climate and Energy Action plan for Ashland is a SCIENCE -BASED PLAN based on necornnnendationsfronothepeeprevievvedpub|icationcaUed"Assessing''DangerousC|irnote Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature." This paper, published in 2013 in the journal PlosOne, was written by 17 leading climate scientists and law professors from leading institutions around the world, including NASA, Columbia University, Harvard, and other institutions inAustralia, France, UK, and elsewhere. If we start this year in 2017, that was calculated to be, ON AVERAGE, 8% per year. If we wait until 2018, we will have to reduce our emissions by 8.5% per year. So every year we wait, we have to reduce emissions even more, which becomes even more expensive. AND every year vve wait, there will be even more climate impacts, which have incredible COSt3 over time. The publication shows ««hv aiming for a global average warming of anything be/Ovv 1.5" C (about 3' F) is disastrous for future generations and what they call an "act of extraordinary intergenerationa|i 'uytice.°|tout|inesa||ofthern jorirnpactsassociatedvvithdirnatemhange, detailing the catastrophic impacts to coral reefs, forests, agricultural production, the increase in wildfires, heat waves with mass mortality, massive species extinctions, and ocean acidification. It also shows that warming of just 20 C will lead to multi -meter sea level rise with it consequences that may threaten the very fabric of civilization." in fact, the last time the Earth was this warm, sea level was Z0-]Dft.higher than today. There is A LOT of work to do, and if we are taking our science -based targets seriously, and I would recommend that we do that, we need to get started right now. We need to show our community that we're all in this together, and that we are making progress. In fact, our Ad -hoc Committee for the CEAP talked to the head of Seattle's Climate Action Plan and vveasked her what the #1 most important thing was for success. She said it is IMPERATIVE that the plan have aCHAMPION. She said that is, byfar, the most important thing for success. Someone in higher levels of city staff who really understands what needs to be done, who can work with ALL DIFFERENT departments, businesses, students, and Council b}identify the areas where they can really make adifference. And someone who is just soenthusiastic and can communicate why its important and how vvecan save money and how vvecan get really diverse populations throughout our community all engaged and working together. The CHAMPION is vital. Ashland does not currently have achampion. On a positive note, there are numerous opportunities to bring in funding to help meet our targets. With someone on staff right away, they could start looking at all of those pots of funding that are available for cities that are taking action. Corvallis, Eugene,Bend—theyareaU taking advantage of foundation funds and other monies to implement energy saving actions. I want to thank for your time today and all of the previous hours and days that you have volunteered your time tOhelp our city develop asustainable budget. MarniKooprnan,Ph.D. Climate Change Scientist 120hLinda Ave. Ashland [)R9752O SOURCE RESEARCH CENTER This summer, you may have received a survey in the mail about your attitudes and actions related to energy and climate change. Southern Oregon University Research Center (SOURCE) and the Geos Institute mailed surveys to 2,000 randomly selected residences in Ashland. We had an incredible response, with 1049 valid surveys returned. We heard loud and clear that a majority of respondents understand that climate Fchange is a threat that needs immediate action. We also heard that many residents are already saving energy in their homes and daily lives, but they often hit barriers that keep them from doing more. Renters, for instance, have limited options for energy upgrades compared to homeowners. And many people find alternative transportation to be too inconvenient to meet their needs. Respondents expressed interest in having the city provide more support for weatherization, alternative transportation and 11jW renewable energy. An, 0 Respondents' views on climate change NEW Immediate action is needed Climate change is real, but it is too late Climate change is not human caused Climate change is a hoax I don't know Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 77 74 73 f% A Measures already 59 being taken Percent of respondents IMP 40 23 10 pop Energy Caulking Energy Energy High Low flow High Home Solar, Electric efficient around efficient efficient efficiency shower- efficiency energy hybrid, or solar lightbulbs doors and appliances windows insulation heads furnace/ assessment tankless panels windows heat pump water heater Barriers to conservation and renewable energy Percent of respondents FA C 0% 10% 20% Public transportation too inconvenient Home improvement too expensive Obligations too far for walking/biking Live in a rental home or apartment Alternative transportation takes too long New appliances too expensive Solar panels won't fit on my roof Local food 1 produce too expensive Don't qualify for incentives The City of Ashland already does a lot to support conservation and renewable energy. When asked what additional actions residents would like the City to take, respondents said they would like the city to invest in: 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Local renewable energy systems Weatherization assistance for low income and s Subsidized solar panels for low income Expanded bus routes and times Electric buses Safer 1 more bike lanes Incentives for energy savings in businesses Better online home energy tracking No actions A majority of survey respondents Cities around the nation are setting greenhouse gas emissions targets and taking support aggressive action on action on climate change. How aggressive should Ashland be compared to others? climate change! We asked residents this question, and this is what we heard. 1 out of 20 respondents suggested no action 2 out of 20 supported 75% reduced emissions by 2040 (state targets) 5 out of 20 recommended 80% reduced emissions by 2030 (similar to Fort Collins, CO) 7 out of 20 preferred 100% reduced emissions by 2050 (similar to Portland) it 6 out of 20 respondents wanted more aggressive action, such as becoming a net exporter of renewable energy by 2050 It tif OPEN tJ ACCESS Freely available online PLOS I ONE Assessing"Dangerous• Change": • i Reductionof Carbon Emissionsi Protect Young People, Future Generations . • Nature James Hansen'*, Pushker Kharecha11`2, Makiko Sato', Valerie Masson-Delmotte3, Frank Ackerman4, David J. Beerling5, Paul J. Hearty6, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg7, Shi-Ling Hsu8, Camille Parmesan"o, Johan Rockstrom", Eelco J. Rohling12'13, Jeffrey Sachs', Pete Smith14, Konrad Steffen'S, Lise Van Susteren16, Karina von Schuckmann17, James C. Zachos'$ 1 Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America, 2 Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, New York, United States of America, 3lnstitut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 4 Synapse Energy Economics, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, 5 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom, 6Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina, Wilmington, North Carolina, United States of America, 7Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia, 8College of Law, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America, 9Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom, 10Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas, United States of America, 11 Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 12 School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, 13 Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, 14University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom, 15Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zurich, Switzerland, 16 Center for Health and the Global Environment, Advisory Board, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 17 L'Institut Francais de Recherche pour I'Exploitation de la Mer, Ifremer, Toulon, France, 18 Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, United States of America Abstract: We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disas- trous impacts on today's young people, future genera- tions, and nature. A cumulative industrial -era limit of ---500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of —1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2-C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Re- sponsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. Introduction Humans are not% the main cause of changes of Earth's atmospheric composition and thus the drive for future climate change [1]. The principal climate forcing, defined as an imposed change of planetary energy balance [1-2], is increasing carbon dioxide (CO,) from fossil fuel emissions, much of which will remain in the atmosphere for millennia [1,3]. The climate response to this forcing and society's response to elimate change are complicated by the system's inertia, mainlydue to the ocean and the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica together with the long residence nine of fossit fuel carbon in the climate system. The inertia causes climate to appear to respond slowly to this human - made forcing, but further long-lasting responses can be locked in. More than 170 nations have agreed on the need to lint fossil fuel emissions to avoid dangerous human -made climate change, as formalized in the 1992 Framcvyork Convention on Climate Change [6]. However, the stark reality is that global emissions have accelerated (Fig. 1) and nvvv efforts are undertivay to massively expand fossil fuel extraction [7-9] by drilling to increasing ocean depths and into the Arctic, squeezing oil from tar sands and tar ,hale, hydro-fracking to expand extraction of natural gas, dercloping exploitation of methane hydrates, and mining of coal via mountaintop removal and mechanized long - wall mining. The growth rate of fossil fuel emissions increased from 1.3`,, /}car during 1980-2000 to T9o/year in 2000-2012, mainly because ofincreased coal use [4 5]. The Framework Convention [6] does not define a dangerous level for global warming or an emissions Cunit for fossil fuels_ The Citation: Hansen J, Kharecha P, Sato M, Masson-Delmotte V, Ackerman F, et al. (2013) Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLoS ONE 8(12): e81648. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 Editor: Juan A. Anel, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Published December 3, 2013 This is an open -access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CCO public domain dedication. Funding: Funding came from: NASA Climate Research Funding, Gifts to Columbia University from H.F. ("Gerry") Lenfest, private philanthropist (no web site, but see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._F.-Lenfest), Jim Miller, Lee Wasser- man (Rockefeller Family Fund) (http://www.rffund.org/), Flora Family Foundation (http://www.florafamily.org/), Jeremy Grantham, ClimateWorks and the Energy Foundation provided support for Hansen's Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions program at Columbia University to complete this research and publication. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. * E-mail: jimehansen@gmail.com PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 1 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 T' J A Global Fossil -Fuel C'0C Amiclal Emissions 1941-7,; f. _ Coal 4+4 �CY32GYlt - - Assessing Dangerous Climate Change $ Global Fossil -Fuel CAD, Annual E>nussiollf Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, based on data of British Petroleum [41 concatenated with data of Boden et al. (5]. (A) is log scale and (B) is linear. doi:10.13711jo u rna l.po ne.0081648.g001 European Union in 1996 proposed to limit global warning to 2 C relative to pre -industrial times [10]. based partly on evidence that many ecosystems are at risk kith larger climate change. The 2 C target has reafltrtned in the 2009 -Copenhagen Accord- emerging from the 15th Conference of the Parties of the Fratnelyork Convention [11], vpith specific language -We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science, as documented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report vpith a viely to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius...... A global warming target is converted to a fossil fuel emissions target with the help of global climate -carbon -cycle models, which reveal that eventual %yarning depends on cumulative carbon emissions, not on the temporal history of emissions [12]. The emission limit depends on climate sensitivity, but central estimates [12 -13], including those in the upcoming Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Caimatr Change [14], are that a 2 C -lobal vharming limit implies a CutrttlatibC carbon emissions limit of the order of 1000 GtC. In comparing carbon emissions, note that settle authors emphasize the sum of fossil fuel and deforestation carbon. We bookkeep fossil fuel and deforestation carbon separately, because the larger fossil fuel term is known more accurately and this carbon stays in fire clinnate scstetn for hundreds of thousands of Vcars. Thus fossil fuel carbon is the crucial human input that must be limited. Deforestation carbon is more uncertain and potentially caul be offset on the century time scale by storage in the biosphere, including the soil, via reforestation and improved agricultural and forestry practices. There are sufficient fossil fuel resources to readily supply 1000 GC, as fossil fuel emissions to date (370 GtC) are only a .small fraction of potential emissions from knolrn reserve., and potentially recoverable resources (Fig. 2). Although there are uncertainties in reserves and resources, ongoing fossil fuel subsidies and continuing technological advances ensure that more and more of these fuels kill be economically recoverable. As we will show, Earth's paleoclimate record makes it clear that the CO, produced by burning all or most of these fossil fuels hould lead to a very different planet than the one that hutnauit% knows. Our evaluation of a fossil fuel emissions %unit is not based on climate models but rather on observational evidence of global climate change as a function of global temperature and on the fact that climate stabilization requires long-term planetary energy balance. We use measured global temperature and Earth's measured energy imbalance to determine the atmospheric CO, level required to stabilize climate at todav's global temperature, which is near the upper end of the global temperature range in the current interglacial period (the Holocenc). We then examine climate impacts during the past fcty decades of global warming and in paleochnnate records including the Eemian period, concluding that there are already clear indications of undesirable impacts at the current level of harming and that 2 C ycarming would have major deleterious consequences. We use simple representations of the carbon cycle and global temperature, consistent with observations, to simulate transient global temper- ature and assess carbon emission scenarios that could keep global climate near the Holocene range_ Finally, we discuss likely over- shooting of target emissions, the potential for carbon extraction from the atmosphere, and implications for energy and economic policies, as well as intergenerational justice_ Global Temperature and Earth's Energy Balance Global temperature and Earth's energy' imbalance provide our most useful measuring sticks for quantif}inq global climate change and the changes of global climate forchngs that would be required to stabilize global climate. Thus wve must first quantify knowledge of these quantities. Temperature Temperautre change in the past century ,Fig 3: update of figures in [16]) includes unforced variability and forced climate change. The long-term global warming trend is predominantly a forced climate change caused by increased hurnan-made atmospheric Qases,mainly CO, [1]. Increase of `'greenhouse" ,gases such as (,'O_ has little effect on incoming sunlight but makes the atmosphere more opaque at infrared wavelengths, causing infrared (heat') radiation to space to emerge from higher, colder levels, which thus reduces infrared radiation to space. The resulting planetary energy imbalance, absorbed solar energy exceeding heat emitter) to space, causes Earth to warm. Observations, discussed belo\v, eonfinn that Earth is now substantially out of energy balance, so the Long-term warming will continue. PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 2 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 1200 KU 800 400 200 0 Fossil Fuel Unissions 0i1 G&, coal Oil Gaff Uonventional t nconventional Assessing Dangerous Climate Change Figure 2. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions and carbon content 0 ppm atmospheric CO2 — 2.12 GtQ. Estimates of reserves (profitable to extract at current prices) and resources (potentially recoverable with advanced technology and/or at higher prices) are the mean of estimates of Energy Information Administration (EIA) [71, German Advisory Council (GAC) [8], and Global Energy Assessment (GEA) [9]. GEA [9] suggests the possibility of >15,000 GtC unconventional gas. Error estimates (vertical lines) are from GEA and probably underestimate the total uncertainty. We convert energy content to carbon content using emission factors of Table 4.2 of [15] for coal, gas and conventional oil, and, also following [15], emission factor of unconventional oil is approximated as being the same as for coal. Total emissions through 2012, including gas flaring and cement manufacture, are 384 GtC; fossil fuel emissions alone are --370 GtC. doi:10.1371 /journa I.pone.0081648.g002 Global temperature appears to have leveled off since 1998 (Fig. 3a1. That plateau is partly an illusion clue to the 1998 global temperature spike caused by the El Nino of the century that year. The 11-year i132-month] running mean temperature (Fig. 3bj shoFvs only a moderate decline oC the %waming rate. The I 1-year a%cra,ging period minimizes the effect of'variability due to the 10- 12 Near periodicity' oCsolar irradiance as well as irregular El Nino/ La Nifia warming/cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 1'hc current solar cycle has weaker irradiance than the several prior solar cycles, but the decreased irradiance can only partially account for the decreased warming rate [17]. Variability of the El Nino/La Nina cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as we discuss further MONv in conjunction kith global temperature simulations. A Assessments of dangerous climate change have focused on estimating a permissible level of global warming. 'Fhc Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change [1,19] summarized broad - based assessments with a "burning embers" diagram, which indicated that major problems begin with global warming of 2- 3 C. A probabilistic analysis [20], still partly subjective, found it median "dangerous" threshold of 2.8'C, kith 954= confidence that the dangerous threshold was 15'(I or higher. 'hhese assessments were relative to global temperature in \car 1990, so add 0.6 C to these values to obtain the vharming relative to 1880- 1920, %chich is the base period we use in this paper for preindustrial time. The conclusion that humanit4 could tolerate global warming up to a 1cw degrees Celsius meshed with common sense. After all, people readily tolerate much larger regional and seasonal climate variations. Global Surface Temperature B r 41 � 1 31, 19t)0 19.0 104(1 10611 luSf) lop)o itl0 1s8 i I00tI lot+_ 1,130 1Ol'i; lags °O,W, 20") Figure 3. Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean. B shows the 5 and 11 year means. Figures are updates of [16] using data through August 2013. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648.g003 PL05 ONE I www.plosone.org 3 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 The fallacy of this logic emerged recently as numerous impacts of ongoing global swarming emerged and as palcoclimate implications for climate sensitivity became apparent. Arctic sea ire end-ofsummer minimum area. although variable front tear to war, has plummeted b} snore than it third in the past fewv decades, at a faster rate than in most model, [21 ], with the .sca ice thickness declining a ('actor of four fluster than simulated in IPCC climate models [22]. The Greenland and antarctic- ice sheets began to shed ice at it rate. Sou several hundred cubic kilometers per sear_ vyhick is continuing to accelerate [23-25]. Mountain glaciers are receding rapidly all around the world [26-29] %yith efftccu on ,ea,onal firshwatcr availability of mayor ricer, [30-:32]. The hot dry Subtropical climate belts has c expanded as the troposplierc ha, warmed and the stratosphere cooled [33 36], contributing to increases in the area and intensity oC drought [37] and %wildfire, [38]. The abundance oCreel=building coral, i, decreasing at a rate of 0.5 2"o/year, at least in part due uv ocean wcarming and possibly ocean acidification caused by rising dis,olved CO. 139- 41]. More than half of all wild species have showcn significant changes in where the% live and in the timing ol'major life events [I2-11]. ML,ga-hcatwa%c,, such as those in Europe in 2003, the Moscow area in 2010, Texas and Oklahoma in 2011, Greenland in 2012, and Australia in 2013 pare become more \widespread with the increase demonstrably linked to global warming [ 15 17], These growing climate impacts, many more rapid than anticipated and occurring %while global \\arming is less than 1 C, imply that society should reassess what constitutes a "dangerous level" of global warming_ Earth's palcoclimate history provides a valuable tool for that purpose. Paleoclimate Temperature Major progress in quantitative understanding of'climate change ha; occurred recently by use oC the combination of data from high resolution ice cores covering time scales of order several hundred thousand years [I8--19] and ocean cores for time scales of order one hundred million years [501. Quantitatiwc insights on global temperature sensitivity to external forcings [51-52] and sca level sensitiyit} to global temperature [52-53] arc crucial to our analyses. Paleoclimate data also provide quantitative information about ho%v nominally slow feedback processes amplify climate sensitivity [51-�2,� 1-,)61, vwhich also is important to our analwscs. Earth's surface temperature prior to instrumental measurernetus is estimated via prosy data. We will refer to the surfacc temperature record in Fig. 4 of a recent paper [52]. Global mean temperature during the Eemian interglacial period (120,000 years agw is constrained to be 2'C warmer than our pre -industrial 1880 19201 level based on several studies of Eeniian climate [52]. The concatenation of modern and instrumental records [52] is based on an estimate that global temperaure in the [first decade of the 21st ecntury (+0.8 C relative to 1880-19201) exceeded the Holocene mean by 0.25±0.25'C. That estimate vvas based in part on the fact that sea level i, novc rising 3.2 nun/vr (32 ill/ millennium) [57], an order of magnitude Caster than the rate during the prior several thousand years, %with rapid change of ice sheet macs balance over the past fevc decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating rates [23 21].'I'his concatenation, vwhich has global temperature 13.9 C ua the base period 1951-1980, has the first decade of the 21.st century slightly (-0.1 Cl vwarmer than the early Holocene maximum. A recent rcconstruction from proxy temperature data [55] concluded that global temperature declined about 0.7 G between the Holocene maximum and a pre -industrial minimum before recent warming brought temperature back near the Holocene maximum, which is consistent v%ith oat- analysis. Assessing Dangerous Climate Change Climate oscillations eyHew in Fig. I of Ilan,en et al. [52] were instigated by perturbations of Earth', orbit and spin axis tilt relative to the orbital plane, v%hich alter the geographical and ,casonal distribution of sunlight on Earth [58]. 1`hcse forcings change slovclr, vwith periods between 20,000 and 1,00-000 Gears. Mid thus climate is able to ,tar ill quasi -equilibrium vwith these forcings. Slow insolatio❑ changes initiated the climate oscillation,, but the mechanisms that caused the climate changes to be so large v%crc tvm po%yerfuh amplifying feedbacks: the planet's surfacc albedo fits reflectivity, literalh its whiteness} and atmospheric COL, amount. As the planet vwarns,. ice and snowy nich. causing the ,tnlace to be darker, absorb Store sunlight and %earn, further. A, the ocean and soil become warmer they release CO, and other grcenhousr gases, causing further wvarming. Together with Cast feedback, processes, via changes of vcater vapor, clouds, and the vertical temperature profile, these slow amplifying feedback; vcore rc,ponsible for almost the entire glacial -to -interglacial temperature change [59-Q]. The albedo and CO, feedback, amplified ymak orbital forcing,. the feedbacks neccssarily changing sim,th over millennia, at the pace of orbital changes. Today, however, CO, is under the control of humans as fossil fuel emissions overwhelm natural changes. Atmospheric CO, has increased rapidly to a level not seen for at least 3 million years [56,631. Global \\arming induced by increasing GO, swill cause ice to melt and hence sea level to rise as the global volume of ice moves towcard the quasi -equilibrium amount that exists Cor a givcn global temperature [53]. As ice melts and ice area decreases, the albedo 1'ecdback v611 amplify global warming. Earth, because of the climate system', inertia, has not yet full responded to human -made changes of atmospheric composition. 'I'll(, ocean', thermal inertia, which delays sonic global warming Cor decades and even centuries, is accounted for in global climate models and its effect i, confirmed via measurements of Earth's energy balance (see neat section). In addition there are slovw climate feedbacks, such as changes of ice sheet size, that occur mainh over centuries and millennia. Slow feedbacks have little effect on the immediate planetary encrgg balance, instead coming into play in response to temperature change. The show feedbacks arc difficult to model, but palcoclimate data and observations of ongoing changes help provide quantif cation. Earth's Energy Imbalance At a time ol' climate stability. Earth radiates as much energy to space as it absorb, lion, sunlight. Today Earth is out of balance because increasing atmospheric uses such as CO,, reduce Earth's heat radiation to space, thu, causing an energy imbalance, as there is less energy going out than coming in. This imbalance causes Earth to warm and move back u-mard energy balance. The \warming and restoration of energy balance take time, ho\\ever. because of' Eartli'.s thermal inertia, which is due mainly to the global ocean. Earth warmed about 0.8 C in the past century. That warming increased Earth's radiation to space, thus reducing Earth's energy imbalance. The remaining energy imbalance helps its assess hove much additional warming is still "in the pipeline". Of' course increasing CO, is onh one of the factors affecting Earth's energy balance, even though it is the largest clunate forcing. Other forcings include changes of aerosols, solar irradiance, and Earth's surfacc albedo. Determination of the state oC Earth's climate therefore requires measuring the energy imbalance This is a challenge, because the imbalance is expected to be only about 1 ty./m' or less, so it(,( uracv approaching 0.1 W/m' is needed. The most promising PROS ONE 1 www.plosone.org 4 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 i s0 cr: tvJ 40 M 0L 0 Deem after Single Fule JI) -- -' 9 PPM ft se i_ 400 Assessing Dangerous Climate Change A m,.1,::n!2ev!-00 Cn..,r<r,r.�r,n:e �— Fv:,2E5;,s:ou�— ! Per 2"33;1 y 33�teT'_Qi` too _100 iOJ Year Date Figure 4. Decay of atmospheric COZ perturbations. (A) Instantaneous injection or extraction of CO2 with initial conditions at equilibrium. (B) Fossil fuel emissions terminate at the end of 2015, 2030, or 2050 and land use emissions terminate after 2015 in all three cases, i.e., thereafter there is no net deforestation. doH 0.1371ljournal.pone.0081648.g004 approach is to measure the rate of changing heat content of the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice [61]. Measurement of ocean heat content is the most critical observation, as nearly 90 percent of the energy surplus is stored in the ocean [64-65]. Observed Energy Imbalance Nations of the world have launched a cooperative program to measure changing ocean heat content, distributing more than 3000 Argo floats around the ecorld ocean, with each float repeatcdl}' dining to a depth of 21an and back [66]. Oecan coverage by float, reached 9004, by 2005 [66], kith the gaps mainly in sea ice regions, yielding the potential for an accurate enerw balance assessment, provided that several systematic measurement biases exposed in the past decade arc minimized [67 -69] . Argo data rcvcal that in 2005-2010 the occan's upper 2000 in gained heat at a rate equal to 0.41 W/tn' averagecl over, Earth's surface [70]. Smaller contributions to planetary energy imbalance are from heat ,gain by the deeper ocean 1,+0.10 tC/nn'), energy used in net mcltiug of tee (+0.05 ), and energy taken up by warnning continents (1+0.02 W/Yn2). Data sources for these estimates and uncertainties are provided elsewhere [64]. The resulting net planetary energ4� imbalance for the six years 2005 2010 i, The positive encrg�, imbalance in 2005 '2010 confirm, that ill( - effect of solar variability on climate is much less than the efCcct of human -made greenhouse gases. IC the sun were the dominant forcing, the planet mould have a negative energy balance in 2005- 2010, schcn solar irradiance was at its loecest level in the period of accurate data, i.e., since the 1970s [64,71]. Even 010111111 much oC the greenhouse gas forcing has been expended in causing obscryed 0.8 C: global yearning, the residual posit.iee forcing overwhelms the negative solar forcing. 'hhe full amplitude of solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 11'/1112 [64,71], but the reduction of solar forcing due to the present %ycak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar minimum (0.58 �l'/m2) suggests an average imbalance over the solar cycle of about 0.7 \V/m�. Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by aerosols, yyith two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade of about -1_5 fib'/rn2 [64,72], including the direct aerosol forcing and indirect eflects via induced cloud ehanaes. Given this large (negative) aerosol forcing, precise monitoring of changing aerosols is needed [73]. Public reaction to increasinglg bad air quality in developing regions [71] may lead to Cuutrc aerosol reductions, at least on a regional basis. Increase of Eardi's emerge imbalance from reduction of particulate air pollution, which is needed for the sake of human health, can be minimized via an emphasis on reducing absorbing black soot [75], but the potential to constrain the net increase of climate forcing b} Focusing on black soot is limited [76]. Energy Imbalance Implications for CO2 Target Earth's cricny imbalance is the most vital number character- izing the state. of' Earth's climate It informs its about the global temperature change "in the pipeline" without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth's energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured cticrg<, imbalance accounts for all natural and human -made climate forcing', including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth's surface albcdo. IC Earth's mean enerp� imbalance today is +0.5 W/m', CO, must be reduced from the current level of 395 pprn (global -mean annual -mean in mid-20131 to about 360 ppm to increase Earth's heat radiation to space by 0.5 1V'hn2 and restore energybalance. If Earth's energy imbalance is 0J5 W/m", CO2 must be reduced to about 3t,5 ppm to restore energy balance [64,75]. The measured cnctgy imbalance indicates that an initial CO: target "<350 ppm" would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize climate without further global v%arming. That target is consistent eeith an earlier anah:sis [54]. Additional support lot- that target is provided by our analyses of ongoing climate change and palcoclimatc. in later parts of our paper. Specification noec of a C:O_ target more precise than e350 ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes oC forcings including Other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More precise assessments \611 become available during the time that it takes to turn around CO,, growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target. Beloyy ice find the decreasing emissions scenario that would achieve the 350 ppm target within the present century. Specifically. yce want to know the annual percentage rate at which emissions must be reduced to reach this target, and the dependence of this rate upon the date at yyhich reductions are initiated. This approach is complennentary to the approach ofestimating cumulative emissions allowed to achieve a given limit on global scanning [12]. PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 5 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 If the only hunnan-made climate forcing were changes of auno�,pheric C0 the appropriate CO- target might be close to the pre -industrial CO, amount [53]. However, there are other human forcings, including aerosols, the effect of aerosols on cloud,, non -CO, ,greenhouse gasc,, and changes of>url'ce albedo that rcill not disappear even it' fossil fuel burning is phased our. .aerosol forcino, arc sub,tawialIx it restili of fossil fuel burning [1,76], but the net aerosol forcing is a sensitise function of carious aerosol sources [76]. The indirect aerosol effect on clouds is non- linear [1,76] such that it has been suggested that cyen the modest aerosol amount, added br pre -industrial humans to an othet rise pristine anoospherc nnac have sawed it signiGcani elimatr (arcing [59]. Plus continued precise monitoring of Earth's radiation imbalance is probabh the best ryas to assess and adjust the appropriate C0 2 target. Ironically future reductions of particulate air pollution ma} exacerbate global warming by reducing the cooling eflcct of refleetice aerosols. IIowever, it concerted effort to reduce non -CO, forcings by methane. tropospheric ozone, other trace ,gases, and black soot night counteract the ryarming from a decline in rellective aerosols [51,701. Our calculations below oCCuture global temperature assume such compensation, as a first approximation. To the extent that goal is not achieved, adjustments must be made in the C0 , target or future warming may exceed calculated values. Climate Impacts Determination of the dangerous level of global warming inherent]} is partly subjective. but we most be as quantitative as possible. Early estimates (or dangerous global warming based on the "burning embers" approach [I,19-20] have been recognized as probably being too conseryatire [77]. A target of limiting ryarming to 2 C! has been ryiclely adopted, as discussed above. We suspect; however, that this may be a case of inching toward a better answer. 11' our suspicion is correct, then that gradual approach is itself v'cry dangerous, because of the climate systems inertia. It will become exceedingly difficult to keep warming below a target smaller than 2 C, if high emissions continue much longer. We consider several important climate impacts and use evidence from current observations to assess the effect of 0.8 C warming and paleoclimate data for the elrect of larger v%arming, especially the Eemian period, ryhich had global mean temperature about +2 C rclatiyc to pre -industrial time Impacts of special interest are sea level rise and species extermination, because they are practically irreversible, and others important to humankind. Sea Level The prior interglacial period, the Eemian, ryas at most ---2 C wanner than 1880--1920 (Fig. 3j. Sea nerd reached heights several meters aboyc today's level [78-80], probably with instances of sca level change of the order of I m/century [81-83]. Geologic shoreline evidence has been interpreted as indicating a rapid sea level rise of a fern meters late in the Eemian to a peak about 9 meters above present, suggesting the possibility that a critical stability threshold was crossed that caused polar ice sheet collapse [83-8 i], although there remains debate within the research community about this specific history and interpretation. The large Eemian sea Icvel excursions imply that substantial ice sheet melting occurred when the ryortd was little warmer than today. During the early Pliocene, which ryas onh --3 C rsarmer than the Holocene sea level attained heights as much as 13-25 meters higher than today [33.86 -891. Such sea level rise suggests that parts of East Antarctica must be vuhrerable to ex cntual melting with global temperature increase of a few degrees Celsiuts. Indeed, Assessing Dangerous Climate Change satellite graxztr data and radar abirnetry reseal that the Totten Glacier of last Antarctica, ryhich fronts a large ice mass grounded belory sea level, is nory losing mass [901_ Greenland ice core data suggest that the Greenland ice sheet response to Eemian warmth was limited [91].. but the fifih IPC:C asscssmant [7 k] concludes that Greenland r cr} likely contributed betuyeen 1.4 and 4.3 nr to the higher sea leycl of the Eennian. The West Antarctic ice sheet is probabh more susceptible to rapid change, because touch of it rests on bedrock vyell below sea level [92--931. Thus the entire 3 1 meter: of global sea level contained in that ice sheet may be vulnerable to rapid disintegration, although arguutem, Cor stability of even this marine ice sheet have been made [91]. However. Earth', history rercal, sca level changes of as mach as a fors meters per century, exert though the natural climate forcing:, chamgcd much more sloryly than the present human -made forcing. Expected hunkm-caused sca tecel rise is controversial in part because predictions focus on sca Ierr1 at a specific time. 2100. Sea level on a given date is inherenth difficult to predict, as it depends on hors rapidly non -linear ice sheet di,iritegtation begins. Focus on it single date also encourages people to take the estimated result as an indication of what humanity Chess, thus failing to emphasize that the likely rate of sca level rise immediatch aCter 2100 \sill be much larger than within the 21" century, especialh� if CO emissions continue to increase. Recent estimates of sea lea el rise by 2100 have been of the order of I m [9.5 96], which is higher than earlier assessments [261, but the,c estimates still in part assume linear relations between warming and sea level rise. It has been argued [97-98] that continued business -as -usual CO3 emissions are likely to spur a nonlinear response with multi -meter sea level rise this century. Greenland and Antarctica have been losing mass at rapidly increasing rates during the period of accurate satellite data [23]; the data are suggesticc of exponential increase, but the records are too short to be conclusive. The area on Greenland ryith summer melt has increased niarkedh, with 97" (, of Greenland experiencing melt in 2012 [99]. The important point is that tlu uncertainty is not about whether continued rapid CO2 emissions would cause large sea level rise, mubrnerging global coamlinc, - it is about how soon the large changes rxould begin. The carbon from fossil fuel burning will remain in and affect the climate system for many millennia, ensuring that over time sea level rise of many meters will occur - tens of meters if most of the fossil Fuels are burned [53]. That order of sea Icvel rise would result in the loss of hundreds of' historical coastal cities worldreicle with incalculable economic consequences, create hundreds of millions of global warming refugees. from highh'-populated low-lying areas, and thus likely cause major international conflicts. Shifting Climate Zones "Theory and climate models indicate that the tropical or erturn- ing jladtcy) atmospheric circulation expands poleryard reidn global warming [33]. There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data for polcward expansion of the tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34-35], but natural variahility may have contributed to that expansion [36]. Change in the overturning circulation likely contributes to expansion of subtropical conditions and increased aridity in the southern United States [30,100], the :Mediterranean region. South America, southern Africa. Madagascar, and Southern Australia. Increased aridity and temperature contribute to increased forest Gres that burn hotter and are more dcstructiyc [38]. PROS ONE ( www.plosone.org 6 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Despite large %car -to -\car variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving polcevard at a typical rate of the order of 100 krnldecade in the past three decade, [101], although the range shifts for apecific specie, follow more cutriplex patterns [102]. This rapid shifting of clunatc zones far exceeds natural rates of change. Movement has been in the same direction (;poleward, and upward in elevation) since about 1975. Wild species have responded to climate change, trith three-quarter, of marine species shilling their ranges poleward a, much as 1000 km [[ 1,1031 and more than half of terrestrial species shifting ranges poleward as low ll as 600 kin and upward as much as 100 nl [101]. Humans may adapt to shifting climate zones better than many species. Iloeecver, political borders can iuterferr eyith human migration, and indigenous trays oflife already have been advcrsch affected [26]. bnpace, are apparent in the Arctic, with niching tundra, reduced sea ice, and increased shoreline erosion. Effects of shifting climate zones also may be important for indigenous Americans who possess specific designated land areas, as ee'cll a, other cultures with long--slinnding traditions in South America, Africa, Asia and Australia. Human Extermination of Species Biodiversity is affected by many agents including overharvest- ing, introduction of exotic species, land use changes, nitrogen fertilization, and direct effects of increased atmospheric COS on plant ecophysiology [13]. How(-ver, an overriding role of climate change is exposed by diverse effects of -rapid warming on animals, plants, and insects in the past three decades. A sudden widespread decline of frogs, with extinction of entire mountain -restricted species attributed to global ecarniing [IO,-) 106], prodded a dramatic awakening. There are multiple causes of die detailed processes involved in global amphibian declines and extinction, [107-108], but global eyarming is a key contributor and portends a planetary -.scale mass extinction in the malting unless action is taken to stabilize cliniate while also fighting biodiversity's other threats [1091. Mountain -restricted and polar -restricted species are particttlarh vulnerable. As isotherms move up the mountainside and poleward, so does the cliniate zone in which a given species can survive If global vyarming continues unabated, many of these species will be eflecticcly pushed off the planet. There are already reductions in the population and health of Arctic species in the southern parts of the Arctic, Antarctic species in the northern parts of the Antarctic, and alpine species eaorlchcide [f3]. A critical factor for survival of some Arctic species is retention of all -year sea ice. Continued growth of fossil fuel emissions will cause loss of all Arctic suninicr sea ice within several decades. In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global warming peaking just over I C and then declining sloevly, should allow summer sea ice to surxive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decades. The threat to species survival is not limited to mountain and polar species. Plant and animal distributions reflect the regional climates to which they arc adapted. Although species attempt to migrate in response to climate change, their paths may be blocked by human -constructed obstacles or natural barriers such as coast lines and mountain ranges. As the shift of climate zones [110] become, comparable to the range of some species, less mobile species can be driven to extinction. Because of extensive species interdependencies, this can lead to mass extinctions. Rising sea level poses a threat to a large number of` uniquely evoked endemic fauna living on islands in marine -dominated ecosystems, with those living on loev lying- islands being especially, Assessing Dangerous Climate Change vulnerable. Evolutionary history on Bermuda oilers numerous example; of the direct and indirect impact of changing sea IvvcI on evolutionar\ processv, (1 1 1 -1 121. evith a number of Casa being extirpated due to habitat changes, greater competition, and island inundation [I13]. Similarh, on Aldahabra Island in the Indian Ocean, land tortoises were estertninated during sea keel high stands [114]. A'ulnerabilitics would be magnified by the speed of human -made climate change and the potentially large sca level rise [115]. IPGC [261 reviceyed studies relevant to estimating cvcntual extinctions. TheV estimate that if global warniing exceeds 1,6Z: above preinchtstrial, ct 31 percent oCspecics gill be cotnnnitied to extinction. With global %varming of 2.9 C:, an estimated 21 -52 percent of species will be committed to extinction. A corupre- hCns1vC study of biodivcrsity indicator, over the past decade [1 161 reveals that, despite some local success in increasing extent of protected areas, overall indicators of pressure, on biodivcrsit\ including that due to climate change are continuing to increase and indicators of the state of biodiversit\ are continuing to decline. Mass extinctions occurred several times in Earth's history [1 IT 1 18], often in conjunction kith rapid cliniate change. Nee v species evolved over millions of years, but those time scales are almost beyond human comprehension. If we drive many species to extinction eve will leave a more desolate, monotonous planet for our children, grandchildren, and more generations than we can imagine. We will also undermine ecosystem functions (e.g., pollination which is critical for food production! and ecosystem resilience (when losing keystone species in food chains), as vyell as reduce functional diversity (critical for the ability of e(osyst erns to respond to shocks and stress) and genetic diversity that plays an important role for development of neev medicines, materials, and sources of energy. Coral Reef Ecosystems Coral reefs arc the most biologically clirersc marine ecosystem, often described as the rainforests of the ocean. Over a million species, most not yet described [119], arc estimated to populate coral reef ecosystems generating crucial ecosystem .services for at least 500 million people in tropical coastal areas. These ccasV,tenis are highly vulnerable to the combined effects of ocean acidification and \e arnlitlg. .acidification arises as the ocean absorbs CO,, producing carbonic acid [120], thus making the ocean more corrosive to the calcium carbonate shells (exoskeletons) of many marine organ- isms. Geocheirical records shoev that ocean pH is already outside its range of the past several million \cars [121--12'?], Warming causes coral bleaching, as overheated coral expel symbiotic algae and become vulnerable to disease and mortality [123]. Coral bleaching and sloeving of coral calcification already are causing mass mortalities, increased coral disease, and reduced reef carbonate accretion, thus disrupting coral reef ecosysteril health [K12 11. Local human -made stresses add to the global warming and acidification effects, all of these during a contraction of 1-2`%() per year in the abundance of reef -building corals [39]. Loss of the three-dimensional coral reef frameworks has consequences for all the species that depend on them. Loss of these frameworks also has consequences lot- the important roles that coral reefs play in supporting fisheries and protecting coastlines from wave stress. Consequences of lost coral reefs can be economically devastating for many nations, especially in combination with other impacts such as sca level rise and intensification of storms. PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 7 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 A CO u ith Peak Enissions in 2012 & Reforestation r � Oft: t z Cv._ 4X1 36C 'C)* CC_), in '013 300 Assessing Dangerous Climate Change Effect of Continued BAU Fossil Fuel Emissions b40 —T- BAU Urtii '050 then Safi,,r CUFr 550 2030 Chc'Y1 m, '! -0 `0 chm Soon t cut: c 450 400 _ .. 50 ....... .......:.,,r._....,._._.__. 15>C 'r a 21a0 '3€k} '1�0a 'la0 '300 _'1�0 Figure 5. Atmospheric CO2 if fossil fuel emissions reduced. (A) 6% or 2% annual cut begins in 2013 and 100 GtC reforestation drawdown occurs in 2031-2080, (B) effect of delaying onset of emission reduction. doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g005 Climate Extremes Changes in the frequenc} and magnitude of climate extremes, OF both moisture and temperature, are affected by climate trends as well as changing variability. Extremes of the hydrologic cycle are expected to uitcnsify in a rrarnwr world. A warnncr atmosphere hold, more moisture, so precipitation can be heavier and cause more extreme Gooding. Higher temperatures, on the other hand, increase evaporation and can intensify droughts tkhen the} occur, as can expansion of the subtropics, as discussed above, Global models for the 21st century find an increased variability of' precipitation minus evaporation [P-E] in most of the world, especially near the equator and at high latitudes [125]. Some model, also show an intensification of droughts in the Sahcl, driven by increasing greenhouse gases [1261. Obsenations of ocean salinit} patterrs for the past 50 years reseal an intensification of [P-E] patterns as predicted by models, but at an even faster rate. Precipitation observation, oycr land shots the expected general increase of precipitation poletkard of the subtropics and decrease at lower latitudes [1,26]. An increase of intense precipitation events has been found on much of the tyorlds land area [127 1291. Evidence for widespread drought intensification is less clear and inherently difficult to confirm with available data because of the increase of time -integrated precip- itation at most locations other than the subtropics. Data anal}ses have found an increase of drought intensity at many locations [130 131] The magnitude of change depends on the drought index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to separate the effect of shifting seasonal precipitation and conGnns an overall drought intensification [37]. Global warming of --0.6'C since the 1970s (Fig 3) has already caused a notable increase in the occurrence ofextrenne summer heat [1,6]. The likelihood of occurrence or the fractional area covered by 3-standard-deviation hot anomalies, relative to a base period t 1951- 1980j that %vas still within the range of Holocene climate, has increased by more than a factor often. Large areas around 1lloscon, the Mediterranean region, the United States and Australia have experienced such extreme anomalies in the past three year;. Heat waves lasting for weeks have a detastating impact on human health: the European heat watt of sunnmer 2003 caused over 70,000 excess deaths 1133]. This heat record for Europe was surpassed already in 2010 [134]. The number of extreme heat waves has increased several -fold due to global warming [15-46.13:i] and will increase further if temperatures continue to rise. Human Health Impacts of climate change cause widespread harm to human health, with children often suffering the most. Food shortages, polluted air, contaminated or scarce supplies of water, an expanding area of vectors causing infectious diseases, and more intensely allergenic plants are among the harmful impacts [26]. More extreme tkeather events cause physical and psychological hann. World health experts hake concluded with -very high confidence- that climate change already contributes to the global burden of disease and premature death [26]. 1PCC [26] projects the f'ollotving trends, if global %%arming continue to increase, where only trends assigned very high confidence or high confidence are included: (il increased malnutrition and consequent disorders, including those related to child growth and deyelopmcnt, (ii) increased death, disease and hnjuries from heat waves, floods, storms, Gres and droughts, (iii) increased cardio-reapirator5 morbidity and mortality associated trith ground -level ozone. NC-hile IPCC1 also projects feeycr deaths from cold, this positiyc effect is far outtycighed b} the negative ones. Growing attawricss of the consequences of human -caused climate change triggrrs anxiety and feelings of helplessness [136- 137]. Children, already susceptible to age -related insecurities, face additional destabilizing insecurities from questions about hotv they vkill cope vkith future climate change [138 139]. Exposure to media ensures that children cannot escape hearing that their future and that of other species is at stake, and that the windoty of opportunity to atoid dramatic climate impacts is closing. The psychological health of our children is a priority, but denial of the truth exposes our children to even greater risk. Health impacts of climate change are in addition to direct effects of air and water pollution. A clear illustration of direct effects of fossil fuels on human health wa.s provided by an hnadcertent experiment in China during the 1950-1980 period of central planning, when free coal for \\inter heating was provided to -North China but not to the rest of the country. Analasis of the impact was made [140] using the most comprehensive data file ever compiled on mortality and an, pollution in any developing country. A principal conclusion tyas that the 500 million residents of North China experienced during the 1990s a loss of more than 2.3 billion life rears owing to the added air pollution, and an average reduction in life expectancy of 5.5 years. The degree of air pollution in China exceeded that in most of the tyorld, }et PROS ONE I www.plosone.org 8 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 a,,essmcntr of total health ed'ects must also include other fossil fitcl caused air and water pollutants, as d1,CUaaed in the fbllfMing section on ecologti and the cm ironmew. The Text St has further discussion of health impacts of climate change. Ecology and the Environment The ecological impact of fossil fuel minim increases as the largest, easiest to access. resources are depleted I I I I]. A constant fossil fuel production rate requires increasing ener;gk input, but also use of more land. %%atcr, and diluent,, with the production of` more %rate ] 1 121. The increasing ecological and enk ironnu•t)tal impact of a gi%en amount of useful fossil fuel energy is a relevant consideration in assessing alternative energy strategies. Coal mining has pro,gressieeh changed front predominantly underground milling to surf ce mining [1-13], including moun- taintop removal with %alley fill, %yhich is nook kridespread in the .loppalachian ecoregion in the United States. Forest cover and topsoil are removed. explosives arc used to break up rocks to access coal, and the excess rock is pushed into adjacent valleys, where it buries existing stream,. Burial of hcadukater streams cause, loss of ecosystems that are important for nutrient ceding and production of organic matter for c1mmstream food webs [144]. The surface alterations lead to greater storm runoff [11,5] x6th likeh impact on downstream flooding. Water emerging from kallev Fills contain toxic solutes that have been linked to declines in watershed biediversity [146]. Even %%ith mine -site reclamation intended to restore pre -mined surface conditions, mine -derived chemical conntituents are found in domestic well water [147]. Reclaimed areas, compared with unmincd area,, are found to have increased soil density with decreased organic and nutrient content, and with reduced kyatcr infiltration rates [148]. Reclaimed areas hark been found to produce little if any regrowth oCwoodv vegetation even after 15 V,ears [149], and, although this deficiency might be addressed via more effective reclamation methods, then, remains a likely- significant loss of carbon storage [1191. Oil mining has an increasing ecological footprint per unit delivered energy because ofthe decreasing size of new fields and their increased geographical dispersion; transit distances are greater and wells are deeper, thus requiring more energy input Useful quantitative measures of the increasing ecological impacu9 are provided by due history of oil development in Alberta, Canada for production of both conventional oil and tar .sands development. The area of laud required per barrel of produced oil increased by a ftctor of 12 between 1955 and 2006 [150] leading to ecosystem fragmentation by roads and pipelines needed to support the. wells [151]. Additional escalation ofthe mining impact occurs as conventional oil mining is supplanted by tar sands devclopment, with mining and land disturbance from the latter producing find use -related greenhouse gas emissions as much as 23 times grcwer than conventional oil production per unit area [152], but vuilh substantial variability and uncertainty [152-153]. Much of tlne tar, sands bitumen is extracted through surface mining that remotes the 'overburden" ii.e., boreal forest ecos}stemsi and tar sand from large areas to a depth up to 100 m, with ecological impacts downstream and in the mined area [154]. Although mined areas are supposed to be reclaimed, as in the case of mountaintop removal, there is no expectation that the ecological value of reclaimed areas krill be equivalent to predevelopmcnt condition [1417155]. Landscape changes due to tar sands mining and reclamation cause a large loss of peattand and stored carbon, while also significantly reducing carbon .sequestration potential [156]. Lake sediment cores document increased chemical Assessing Dangerous Climate Change pollution of ecosystems during the past several decades traceable to tar sands dcvelopnient [157] and snow and vrater samples indicate that recent IcedS of uumerou, pollutants exceeded local and national criteria for protection of aquatic organisms [158]. t=as mining by unconventional means has rapidly expanded in recent }cars, tkithout commensurate understanding of the ecological, cm ironmental and human health consequences [159]. The predominant approach is hydraulic fracturing (" (rack- ing"; of deep shale formation.s via injection of trillion, of gallons of %eater, sand and toxic chemicals under pressure, thus liberating methane [155.160]. A Luge fraction ofthe injected water returns to the ,urf)cc it, kru water containing high concentration:, of heak\ metals, oils, greases and soluble organic compounds [161]. Management of this kkastewatcr is a major technical challenge, especial k because the polluted waters can continue to backilow front the ur1Ls for manti year, [t6t]. Numerous instances of groundv-rater and ricer contamination haler been cited [162]. High levels of methane leakage from Cracking have been Got in [163], as well as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds Methane leaks increa e the climate impact of shale gas, but whether the, leaks are sufficient to significantly alter the climate forcing by total natural gas development is uncertain [161]. Overall, em ironmcrttal and ecologic threats posed by uncom (,n- tional gas extraction are uncertain because of limited research, however evidence for groundwater pollution on both local and river basin scales is a major concert) [165]. Toclay, with cumulative carbon emissions —370 GW from all fossil fuels, we are at a point of' severely escalating ecological and environmental impacts from fossil fuel Ilse and fossil fuel mining. as is apparent from the mountaintop removal for coal, tar sands extraction of oil, and fracking for gas. The ecological and environmental implications of scenarios krith carbon emissions of 1000 GtC or greater, as discussed belo%y. mould be profound and should influence considerations of appropriate energti, strategics. Summary: Climate Impacts Climate impacts accompanying global xkannin,g of 2 C or more would be highly deleterious. Already there are numerous indications of substantial effects in response to warming of the past few decades. That kkarming has brought global temperature close to if not lightly above the prior range ofthe Holocene. We conclude that an appropriate tartlet kvould be to keep global temperature at a level within or dose to the Holocene range. Global warming of 2'C would be well outside the Holocene range and far into the dangerous range. Transient Climate Change We must quantitative) relate fossil fuel emi.s.sions to global temperature in order to assess how rapidly fossil fuel emissions must be phased down to stay under a given temperature limit. Thus kve must deal with both a transient carbon cycle and transient global climate change. Global climate fluctuates stochastically and also responds to natural and human -made climate forcings [1,166]. Forcings, measured in \V/m' averaged over the ,globe, are imposed perturbations of Earth's energy balance caused by changing forcing agents such as solar irradiance and human -made greenhouse gases (GFIGs). CO,, accounts for more than 80"(1 of the added GHG forcing in the past 15 years [64,167] and, if fossil fuel emissions continue at a high level, CO_ krill be the dominant driver of future global temperature change. We first define our method of calculating atmospheric CO, as it function of fossil fuel emissions. We then define our assumptions PLOS ONE I WINw.plosone.org 9 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 about the potential for dra%whng down atmospheric UO, via reforestation and incrva.,c of soil carbon, and vwc define fossil fuel emission reduction scenarios that we employ in our surds-. Finale vwe describe all forcing,, cunployed in our calculations of global temperature and the method used to simulate global temperature. Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric COZ The carbon cycle define, the fate of COS, injected into the air by hassil fuel burning [1,168] as the additional CO, distributes itself, ovra� time anrong ,trice carbon rescrwoirs: the atmosphet'c% ocean. soil. and biosphere. We use the dcnau'ic-;ink pulsc- response function version oC the %cell -tested Bern carbon vide model [169], as described elaevwhere [51,170]. Specifteally. ar solve nluatious 3-6, 16--17, A-2.2. and A.3 of joo, et al. [169] using- the .same parameters and assumption, therein, except that initial (185iY atmospheric CO, is assumed to be 285.2 ppm [167]. Historical fossil fuel (;02 emission, are Fran Boden et al. [5]. This Bern model incorporates non -linear ()(call chemistry feedbacks and CO, fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere, btu it omits clinlate-carbon feedbacks, e.,g., assuming static global climate and ocean circulation. Therefore our result, should be regarded as eonsery atiyc, especially for scenarios with large emissions. A pulse of CO, injected into the air deca}'s by half in about 25 vears as CO•, is taken Ill') by the ocean, biosphere and soil, but nearh one -fifth is still in the atmosphere after 500 }ears ;Fig. lA . Eventually. over hundreds of millennia. weathering of rocks Neill deposit all of thi, initial C:O> pulse on the ocean floor as carbonate sediments [168]. Under equilibriumn conditions a negative GO, pulse, i.c, artificial extraction and storage of sonic CO2 <unount, decays at about the same rate as a positive pulse (Fig. -1-N. Thus if it is decided in the future that CO, must be extracted from the air and removed from the carbon cycle ;e.g., bt1 storing it underground or in carbonate bricksj, the impact on atmospheric C,0,2 amount trill diminish in time. This occurs because earboU is exchanged among the surface carbon reserwirs as they move lcmard an equilibrium distribution, and thus, e.g., CO-, out -gassing by the ocean run offset some of the artificial dravwdo%wn. The CO, extraction required to reach a given target atmospheric CO, Icyel therefore depends on the prior emission history and target iimeframe, btu the amount that must be extracted substantially exceeds the net reduction of the atmospheric CO, level that Neill be achieved. We elarifw this matter below by means of specific scenarios for caponrc of CO,,. It is instructive to sec ho%w fast atmospheric CO., declines if fossil fuel emissions are instantle terminated (Fig. M. Halting cnnissions in 2013 causes CO> to decline to 350 ppin at cenutry's end (Fi,g. ilBj. A 20 year delay in halting emissions has GO, returning to 350 ppm at about 2300. With it 40 year delaa, CO, does 'not return to 350 ppm until after 3000. These results shim how, diflicuh it is to get back to 330 ppm if emissions continue to ,gro%v' for even a fevw decades. Thew rettill s epipha i--e the cogent' of iai(irtfirrg emission+ recluihoa [171]. As discussed above, keeping global climate close to the Holocene range requires a long-term atmospheric CO, leycl of about 350 ppm or less, vwith other climate forcings similar to today's levels. If emissions reduction had begun in 2005. reduction at 3.51'./year vwould have achieved 350 ppm at 2100. Ncm the requirement is at least 6""/guar. Delay of emissions reductions until 2020requires a reduction rate of 15"o/year to achieve 350 ppm in 2100. If %m assume only 50 Gi(I reforestation, and begin emissions reduction in 2013, the required reduction rate becomes about 9"./year. Assessing Dangerous Climate Change Reforestation and Soil Carbon 01' course fossil fuel emission, �611 not .sudden/} terminate. �\cvcrthcless, it is not impossible to return C:O, to 350 ppm this century. Reforestation and increase of soil carbon can help draw%' down atmospheric C:O>. Fossil fuel, account iior --80", of the CO, increase from preindustrial tune, kith land use/deforestation accounting for 20";, [1,170,172-173J. Act deforestation to dau is estimated to be 100 GC (gigatons of carbon) v iih -`50"n unccrtanni\[172]. Complete restoration of deforested areas is unrealistic. vet 100 GIC carbon dr.tvwdovcu i, couceiwahle because: (ll the hunrun- c'nhanI'd atnnosphcric GOy lcvcl in<rcasc, carbon uptake by sonic vegetation and soils, (2) improv°c d agricultural practices can concert agrieuhure from a GO, ounce into a CO, sink [17if. ;1 bionlass-burning poker plants vwith CO, capture and storage can contribute to CO, draudo%vn. Forest and soil storage of 100 GtC. is challenging, btu has other benefits. Reforestation has been successful in diverse places [175]. Minimum tillage vwith biological nutrient recvcling, as opposed to plowing and chemical fertilizers, could segtte,tcr 04- 1.2 Gv(;/year [176] while conser,,ing vwater in soil's, building agricultural resilience I(,) clunate change, and increasing producti%'ity especially in smallholder rain -fed agriculture, thereby reducing expansion of agriculture into forested ccosystenns [177-178]. -Net tropical defor- estation may have decreased in the past decade [179], but because of exten,i%e deforestation in earlier decades [170,172-173,180- 181] there is a large arnouni of land suitable for reforestation [182]. Use of bioenergy to draw down CO-, should employ- feedstocks from residues, %wastes, and dedicated cnerg crops that do not compete with food crops, thus avoiding loss of natural ecosystems and cropland [1,13-185]. Reforestation competes Nvith agricultural land use; (and needs could decline by reducing use of aninnal products. as livestock novw consuune more than half of all crops [186]. Our reforestation scenarios assume that todav's net deforesta- tion rate (--I GtC/year; see [54] swill stay constant until 2020, then linearIv decrease to zero bN 2030, followed by sinusoidal 100 GtC biospheric carbon storage over 2031-2080. Ahernatiy c timings do not alter conclusions about the potential to achieve a given CO, Ieye1 such as 350 ppm. Emission Reduction Scenarios A 6"otyear decrease of fossil fuel emissions beginning in 2013, %with 100 GtC reforestation. achieves it CO,, decline to 350 ppm near the end of this (con -try Fig. 5A1. Curnulativc fossil fuel emissions un this scenario are — 129 GW from 2013 to 2050. %with an additional 11- GtC by 2100. If our asstmied land use changes occur it decade earlier, G(7, MUMS to 350 ppm seNeral Vcars earlier; hovyc%cr that has negligible effect on the maximum global temperature calculated belo%w. Delaying fossil fuel (-mission cuts until 2020 ;,with 2"o/year crimssiotns grcNwth in 2012- 20201 causes CO, to remain above 350 ppm (\with associated impacts on climate; until 2300 iFig. 511}. If reduction, are delaced until 2030 or 2050, (,0, remains above 350 ppm or 400 ppm, respcctivdy, until %well after 2500. We conclude that it is Urgent that large, long-term emission reductions begin soon. Even if it 644,/vear reduction rate and 500 GtC are not achieved, it makes a huge difference when reductions begin. There is no practical justification for N\hc emissions necessarily must even approach 1000 GW, Climate Forcings Atmospheric C(), and other GHGs have been well -measured for the past half cenmry, allowwing accurate calculation of their climate forcing. Fhe growth rate of the GHG forcing has declined PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 10 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 rnoderateh since its peak �alucs in the 1980,, as the groecth rate of GHQ and chlorolluorocarbons has slowed [187]. Annual changes of'GO,, are highly correlated kith the El Vino cycle Fig. 6). TeeO strong La Visas in the past five years have depressed C:O.> growth a, well as the ;,Iobal gassing rate ,Fig. 3). The CO, groecth rate and warming rate call be expected to increase as we more into the nest El Vino, with the C0- groecth ahra dl reaching 3 ppmlycar in mid-2013 [188]. The CO, climate forcing does not increase as rapidly, as the CO-> amount because of partial saturation of CO absorption bands [75]. The GHC; forcing is noec increasing at a rate of almost O. t yV'Im- per decade [187]. Solar in -alliance variations arc sometimes a,SUmed to he the most likely natural driver of climate change_ Solar irradiance has been measured from satellites since the laic 1970s 7). 'Fhcsc data are from a composite of several satellite -measured time series. Data through 28 February 2003 are from (189] and Physikalisch NIcteorolo,gisches Obst,n atoriurn 11m s, World Radiation Center. Sulbsequcnt update is from University of Colorado Solar Radiation Uimate Experiment (SORE). Data sets are concatenated by matching the means over the First 12 months of SORCE data. Nlonthly sunspot numbers (Fig. 7) support the conclusion that the solar irradiance in the current solar c�rle is sign ificantly lower than in the three preceding solar cycles. Amplification of the direct solar forcing is cnueeivable, e.g., through effects on ozone or atmospheric condensation nuclei. but empirical data place a factor of two upper limit on the amplification, with the most likely, forcing in the range 100--12W,(i of the directly, measured solar irradiance change [64]. Recent reduced solar irradiance (Fig. 7) may have decreased the forcing over the past decade by about half of the Bill amplitude of measured irradiance variability, thus yielding a negative forcing of, say, — 0.12 \V'lm'. This compares ycith a decadal increase of the GHG forcing that is positive and about three times larger in magnitude. Thus the solar forcing is not negligible and might partially account for the slowdown in global warming in the past decade [17]. 1loecever, we must )I) compare the solar forcing v6th Assessing Dangerous Climate Change the net of other forcing,, which enhances the importance of solar change, because the net forcing is smaller than the GHG forcing, and (21i consider forcing chanties on longer time scales, eyhich greatly diminishes the importance of solar charge, because solar variability is mainly oscillatorv. Human -made tropospheric aerosols, which arise largely from fossil fuel use, cause a substantial negative forcing- As noted abuse. two independent analyse, [64,72] yield a total `direct plus indirectr aerosol forcing in the past decade of about — 1 S N1"l1112. half, the magnitude of the GHG forcing and opposite in si-m. I1 cinpiriu al aerosol forcing asessment for the past decade i, con,i,icnt with the climate forcings scenario IFig. 8� that ecc u,c for the past century in the present and prior studies [61,190]. Supplcnentary Table S I specifics the historical forcings and 'fable S'' giees several scenarios for future forcings. Future Climate Forcings Future global temperature change should depend mainl} on atmospheric CO,, at least if fossil fuel emissions remain high. 'Thus to provide the clearest picture of the GO_ effect, eye approximate the net future change of human -made non -CO, forcings as zero and eae exclude future changes of natural climate forcings, such as solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols. Here eve discuss possible effects of these approximations. Uncertainties in non -CO,, forcings concern principally, solar, aerosol and other GHG forcings. judging from the sunspot numbs rs iFig. 7B and [191]) for the past four centuries, the current solar cycle is almost as weak as the Dalton Nlinimum of the late 18th century. Conceivably irradiance could decline further to the level of the Nlaunder N inimum of the late 17th century [192- 193]. For our simulation yve choose an intermediate path between recoycry to the level before the current solar c}cic and decline to a still lower level. Specifically, we keep solar irradiance fixed at the reduced Ieyel of 2010, which is probably not too far off in either direction. Irradiance in 2010 is about 0.1 W/m- less than the mean of the prior three solar cycles, a decrease of forcing that Annual Increase of Monthly Mean Global Atmospheric CO, Monthly Mean 12—month Running Mean Linear Change If, t� l t I I t tv l i t!'tiW I% j ye1 I 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 J (10.2" 0. i7-0.2 W 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ,1960 0 /�J f J -I Z �1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figure 6. Annual increase of COz based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory [11881. Prior to 1981 the CO. change is based on only Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Temperature changes in lower diagram are 12-month running means for the globe and Nino3A area [161. doi:10.1371/joumal.pone.0081648.g006 PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 11 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Assessing Dangerous Climate Change � �I`c+t<tl St�(ar trra:#iaru e VNI1 tlt NOW F 4 SoLtt r � i3 43a� i�tttittsn< R$z,tn 1975 11)AV I I')811190 1fp)$ 2t% 1 21liji attltl (; ?4ltuuhl} Suns(xtt islttttttx r:s ,ttt ___ R1=«titfi, Mk e= ' `In —ttnsl'tl:,tn J31 Z tt' ' S Oftti r 7 Y(, - 1 1i7 1' Ioi, ]t(,At. 1w; IIXAI 1IJI)i� It)III Figure 7. Solar irradiance and sunspot number in the era of satellite data (see text). Left scale is the energy passing through an area perpendicular to Sun -Earth line. Averaged over Earth's surface the absorbed solar energy is --240 W(m2, so the full amplitude of measured solar variability is —0.25 Wtm2. doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g007 ticoutd be restored be the CO_ increase within 3 1 years at its current growth rate. Extensive simulations [17,1911 confirm that the effect of'solar variability is small compared vdth GHGs if CO emissions continue at a high level. However, solar forcing can allcct the magnitude and detection of near -term warming. Also, if rapidl dectining GHG emissions are achieved, changes of solar forcing v.ill become relatively more important - .Aerosols present a larger uncertainty. Expectations of decreases in large source regions such as China [195] mac be counteracted h} aerosol incteases other places as global population continues to increase. Our assumption of unchanging human -made aerosols could be substantiallc off in either direction. For the sake of interpreting on -,going and future climate chant,(: it is highl} desirable to obtain precise monitoring of the global aerosol forcing [73]. .A Net Forcing T�-T---r-r I PW-Jr t - Siuu:,a r u ith 611 - z cu --- Sinm2aa x. ,t-ith _�Oc'vr cur_ E 4r _I -Non-CO, GHG forcing has continued to increase at it slow rate since 1995 (Pig. 6 in [6 F]j. A desire to constrain climate change ma} help reduce emissions of these gases in the future. However, it %%ill be dillicult to prevent or full% offset positive forcing from increasing N,O, as its largest source i� associated \pith food production and the world's population is continuing to rise. On the other hand, nee are also probabl}underestimating a negative aerosol forcing, e.g., because we have not inchtded future volcanic aerosols. Given the absence of large volcanic eruptions in the past two decades (the last one being Mount Pinatubo in 1991), multiple volcanic eruptions would cause it cooling tendene} [196] and reduce heat storage in the ocean [197]. Overall. cce expect the errors due to our simple approximation of non -CO) forcing, to be partially oIl=seeing. Specific alI we have likely underestimated it positirc forcing by non -CO, GHGs, while also likely underestimating a negative aerosol forcing. Net Forcing t PAUEu-j--ion�Until 2050 t:)cu 5ao,'t. {tit _10,0 then 5 o'er cut- --=C�-'C then Caiz - — _s0_u Lhen � o %.f cute t35� lu�"n 15f3 Figure S. Climate forcings employed in our six main scenarios. Forcings through 2010 are as in [64]. doi:10.13711journal.pone.0081648.g008 PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 12 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Notc that muurtainty in forcing., is partk obviated via the focus on Earth's energy imbalance in our analy�is_ The planet's energy imbalance is an integrative quantity that is especially useful for a case in which some of, the Corcings are uncertain or tmmeasured. Forth's mr<tsurcd euet;gv imbalance includes the ef(ccts of all (brcings, whether they are measured or not. Simulations of Future Global Temperature We calculate global temperature change for a gic ern CO , scenario usin'; a climate response function (fable S3) that accurate[' rel,licate, results front a global climate model with sensitivity 3 C for doubled CO, [6l]. A best estimate of climate sensitivity close to 3 C for doubled CO-, has been inferred from paleoclimate data [51-52]. This empirical climate sensitiviu is generally con istent etith that of global climate models [1], btu the empirical apl.iroaeh makes the inferred high sensitivity more certain and the quantitative evaluation more precise. Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data oil hots Earth responded to past changes of boundary conclitions, including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models. The detailed temporal and geographical response of the climate system to the rapid human -made change of climate forcings is not well -constrained by empirical data, because there is no faithful palcoclimate ;analog. Thus climate models necessarily play an important role in assessing practical implications of climate change Nevertheless, it is possible to dram important conclusions with transparent computations. A simple response function (Green's funs ion) calculation [6k] yields an estimate of global mean temperature change in responsc to a specified time series for global climate forcing. "['his approach accounts for the defaced response of the climate system caused by the large thermal inertia of the ocean, yielding a global mean temporal response in close accord with that obtained from global climate models. Tables S1 and S2 in Supporting Information give the forcings rce employ and '['able S3 gives the climate response function for our Green's function calculation, defined by equation 2 of [6 j. The Green's function is driven by the net forcing, which, raith the response function, is sufficient information for our results to be reproduced. Howceer, rce also include the individual forcings in Table S1, in case researchers wish to replace specific forchigs or use theta for other purposes. Simulated global temperature (Fig. 9) is for CO, scenarios of Fig. 5. Peak global warming i, ---1.1'C, declining to less than I C by mid-centsv}, if CO, emissions are reduced 6" o/y ear beginning in 2013. In contrast, wanting reaches 1.5'C and stays above I C until after 2400 if emissions continue to increase nail 2030, even though Fossil fuel emit -scions are phased out rapidly (.i °/pear) after 2030 and 100 GtC reforestation occurs during 2030-2080. If emissions continue to increase until 2050, simulated vyarniing exceeds 2-C well into the 22°C1 oastv\_ Increased global temperature persists for many centuries after the climate forcing declines, because of the thermal inertia of the ocean [198], Some temperature reduction is possible if the climate forcing is reduced rapidly, before heat has penetrated into the deeper ocean. Cooling by a fern tenths of it degree tit Fig. 9 is a result mainly of the 100 GtC biospheric uptake of C;O_ during 2030--2080. Note the longevity of the warming, especially if emissions reduction is as slow as 2°iolycar, which might be considered to be a rapid rate of reduction. The temporal response of the real world to ills human -made climate forenig could be more complex than suggested by a simple response function calculation, especially if rapid emissions growth Assessing Dangerous Climate Change continues, yielding all unprecedented climate forcing scenario. For example, if ice sheet mass loss becomes rapid, it is conceivable that the cold fresh water added to the ocean could cause regional surface cooling [199]. perhaps even at a point vthen ,ca level rise has only reaches) it level of the order of it meter [200]. However, any uncertainty in the surface thermal response this century due to such phenomena has lilt[(- effect on our estimate of the dangerous Ievcl of emissions. The long- lifetime of the fossil fuel carbon in the elintate system and the persistence of ocean warming for millennia [201] provide sufficient time for the climate system to achieve lull response to the fast feedback processes included in the 3 C'; climate scrnsii hire. Indeed, the long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon in the clunate System and persistence of the ocean rearming ensure that "slow" feedbacks, such av, ice sheet disintegruion, changes of the global vegetation dkIrlbntion, melting ofpermafrost, and possible release of methane from methane hydrates on continental shehr,, woulcl also have time to come into play- Given the unprecedented rapidity of the human -made climate forcing, it is difhcuh to establish hole soon dote feedbacks will become important, but ctcarlc slow feedbacks should be considered in assessing the "dangerous" level of global warming, as discussed in the newt Section. Danger of Initiating Uncontrollable Climate Change Our calculated global rearming as a function of CO_ amount is based on equilibrium climate. sensitiv$y 3'C for doubled CO,,. That is the central climate sensitivity estimate from climate models [1], and it is consistent rcith climate sensitivity inferred from Earth's climate history [51-52]_ 1lowever, this climate sensitivity includes oniti the effects of Past feedbacks of the climate system, such as water vapor, cloud,, aerosols, and sea ice. Slow feedbacks, such as change of ice sheet area and climate -driven changes of greenhouse gases, are not included. Slow Climate Feedbacks and Irreversible Climate Change Excluding slow feedbacks ryas appropriate for simulations of the past century, because rce know the ice sheets were stable then and our climate simulations used observed greenhouse gas amounts that included any contribution from slow feedbacks. Hovyever, we must include slow feedbacks in projections of warming for the 2 1 " century and beyond. Slow feedbacks are important because they aflect climate sensitivity and because their instigation is related to the danger of passing "points of no return", beyond which irreversible consequences become inevitable. out of hUrnanity'S control. Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets present the danger of change with consequences that are irreversible on time scales important to society [1]. These ice sheets required millennia to grow to their present sizes. If ice sheet disintegration reaches a point such that the dynamics and momentum of the process take over, at that point reducing greenhouse gases may be unable to prevent major ice sheet mass loss, sea level rise of many meters, and worldwicle loss of coastal cities - a consequence that is irreversible for practical purposes. Interactions between the ocean and ice sheets are particularly important in determining ice sheet changes, as a warming ocean can melt the ice shelves, the tongues of ice that extend from the ice sheets into the ocean and buttress the large land -based ice sheets [92,202 203]_ Paleoclimate data for sea level change indicate that sea Icvcl changed at rates of the order of a meter per century [81 83], even at times when ill( - forcing, driving climate change were far ryeaker than the human - PROS ONE I www.plosone.org 13 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Assessing Dangerous Climate Change A Global Tcniperatare for CO Scrn:uio, of Fit 5A B Global TrmpcTaturc for CO Scmarios of Fry 5B Bs.tPeti�tt=f65Q-f9_� .�i Ln1ll 3 SQt Sift) 0 .T rS[„ -0 _' 4!1t- 1€50 -5 15 ? -{i.5 t— IaSC Bs.e Pecin6 = ;f 4_G] B.s.U5mi vT..lia:. .. __.. -055 itiet ±%'i cat: - '- '020 ttes : a- vi ce:_ they 5% rI ca:. 21000 `150 " 11 f C, 2 5S Figure 9. Simulated global temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean for CO2 scenarios of Figure S. doi:10.1371 /journa I.pone.0081648.g009 made forcing. Thus, because ocean warming is persistent for centuries, there is a danger that large irreversible change could be initiated by excessive ocean %%arming. Paleoclimatc data are not as helpful for defining the likely rate of sea level rise in coming decades, because there is no know n case of gro%ith of a positive (warming) climate forcing as rapid as the anthropogenic change. The potential for unstable ice sheet disintegration is contrmci-sial, Nith opinion varying from likely stability of even the (marine) Wcst Antarctic ice sheet [94] to likel rapid non -linear response extending- up to multi meter sea level rise [97-98]. Data for the modern rate of annual ice sheet mass changes indicate an accelerating rate of mass loss consistent with a mass loss doubling time oC a decade or less IFig. 10)_ However, we do not know the functional forme of ice sheet response to a large persistent climate forcing. Longer records are needed for empirical assessment of this ostensibly nonlinear behavior. Greenhouse gas amounts in the atmosphere, most important/ CO, and CHs, cha nge in response to climate change, i.e., as a feedback, in addition to the unnfediate gas changes from human - caused emissions. As the ocean \\arms, for example, it releases CO_ to the atmosphere, with one principal mechanism being the simple fact that the solubility of CO , decreases as the water temperature rises [204]. We also include in the category of slow feedbacks the global warming spikes, or "hyperthermals", that have occurred a number of times in Earth's history during the course of slower global warming trends. The mechanisms behind Giecuhtrid Ice Alas Change Fate � t } •' Y GTa�aucut `ie ��'` irtnu ourtx incsfir.�d ,, _ 1 _ 1 10-agar J+?ub;u:� ::n.c .._.�. J-.'fat d+J lt:11?tknK •�. these hvperthernfals are poorl}understood. as discussed below, but they are characterized by the injection into the surface climate sy:stem of a large amount of carbon in the Conn of CHI and/or Cn, on the time scale of a millennium [205-207]. The average rate of injection of carbon into the climate sv:stern during these h}perthermal, vvas shiner than the present human -made injection Of fossil fuel carbon, yet it was faster than the time scale for removal of carbon from the surface reser%oirs via the vyeathering process [3,208]. vyhich is tens to hundreds of thousands of }ears. Methane hydrates - methane molecules trapped in frozen water molecule cage, in tundra and on continental shelves - and organic matter such as peat locked in frozen soils (permafrosti are likely mechanisms in the past h,perthen»als, and they provide another climate feedback with the potential to amplif} global warming if large scale thaviing occurs [209-210]. Palcoelimate data reveal instances of rapid global warning as much as 5-6-C, as a sudden additional warming spike during a longer period of gradual warmring [see Text S1]. The candidates for the carbon injected into the climate system during those warnings are methane fndrates on continental shelves destabilized by sea floor warming [211] and carbon rcicscd from frozen soils [212]. As for the present, there are reports of methane release from thawing permafrost on land [213] and from sea-bed methane hydrate deposits [214]. but amounts so far arc small and the data are snapshots that do not prove that there is as yet a temporal increase of emissions. E; West Antarctica Ice Mass Churge Rate 2adv atnnl n cha,142 n .��•.. CaTnp;'+:itc tLTta`... _00 - - - Lutr x fit --- 1J-_eu donb=sss- tuz c i-ye1T t— :Cv' IS`q'_ li"A" ..... :;;nJ" :D1'_ - ,. _ !ec•^ _C'�_ :'Xr- `nt_ Figure 10. Annual Greenland and West Antarctic ice mass changes as estimated via alternative methods. Data were read from Figure 4 of Shepherd et al. [23] and averaged over the available records. doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0081648.g010 PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 14 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 There is it 'possibility of rapid methane hydrate or permafrost emissions in response to warming, but that risk is largely unquantified 121,51. The time needed to destabilize large methane hydrate deposits in deep sediments is liken millennia [215]. Sniallci but still large methane hydrate amount, below shallow v%eters as in the Arctic Ocean arc more vulnerable: the inctlhane mac oxidize to CO.a in the water, but it wi11 still add to the long- term burden of CO3, in the carbon cycle 'Terrestrial permafrost emissions of CIi4 and CO. likely can occur on it time scale of a fcv% decades to se%cral centurie, ifglobal v%arming continue. [215]. Thee time scale, are %%ithin the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. and thus the,,, Grdback, must be considered ill estimating the dangerous level of global warning. Because human -made warming is more rapid than natural long-term v%armings in the past, there is concern that methane hydrate or peat feedbacks could be more rapid than the feedback, that exist in the paleoclimate record. Climate model studies and empirical analyses of paleoclimate data can proeicle estimate, of the amplification of climate sensitivity caused be slo%% feedbacks, excluding the singular mechanisms that caused the hypertherinal events. Model studies for climate change between the Holocene and the Pliocene, when Earth vwas about 3'C warmer, find that sloe% feedbacks due to changes of ice sheets and vegetation cover amplified the fast lcedback climate response by 30 ,50% [216]. These same slowy feedbacks are estimated to amplify climate sensitivity by almost a furor of two for the climate change between the Holocene and the nearly ice -free climate state that existed 35 million years ago [o#]. Implication for Carbon Emissions Target Evidence presented under Climate Impacts above makes clear that 2 'C global v%arming would have consequences that can be described as disastrous. Multiple studies [12,198,201] shoe% that the warming %could be very long lasting. The paleoclimate record and changes underway in the Arctic and on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets with only today's warming imply that sea level rise of several meters could be expected. Increased climate extremes, already apparent at 0.8 C %%arming [ [6], would be more severe. Coral reefs and associated species, already stressed with current conditions [10], v%ould be decimated by increased acidification, temperature and sea level rise. More generally, humanity and nature, the modern %%orld a, %%c know it, is adapted to the Holocene climate that has existed more than 10,000 years. Warming of 1 C relative to 1881)-1920 keeps global temperature close to the Holocene range, but warming of 2'C, to at least the Eemian leycl, could cause major dislocations for civilization. Hovwever, distinctions between pathways aimed at -1 C and 2 C %%arming are much greater and more fundamental than the numbers I C and 2'C themselves might suggest. These funda- mental distinctions make scenarios with 2'C or more global %warrnin,g far more dangerous; so dangerous, we suggest, that aiming for the 2 C pathway %could be foolhardy. First, most climate simulations, including ours above and those of IPCC [1], do not include slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice sheet size with global warming or release of greenhouse gases from thawing tundra. "These exclusions are reasonable for it I C scenario, because ,global temperature barely rises out of the Holocene range and then begins to subside. In contrast, global warming of2�C or more is likely to bring slow feedbacks into play. Indeed, it is slow% feedbacks that cause long-term climate sensitivity to be high in the empirical paleoclimate record [5I-52]. `The lifetime of fossil fuel COz in the climate system is so long that it must be assumed that these slow feedbacks v%ill occur if temperature rises well above the Holocene range. Assessing Dangerous Climate Change Second, scenarios wrath 2 C or more warming ncccssartle rrnph expansion of fossil fuel, into sources that arc harder to get at. requiring ,greater energy using extraction techniques that are increasingly invasive, destructive and polluting. Fossil fuel emissions through 2012 total --370 GtC (Fig. 21. If subsequent emissions decrease 6°ol%car. additional emissions are --1:30 GtC, for a total -500 GiC fossil fuel emissions. This H0 GtC can be obtained mainly from the easih extracted conventional oil and as rescrwes (Fig. 21, %%ith coal use rapidly phased out and uncom en- tional fossil fuels left in the ground. fin contrast, 2'C: scenario, hake total emissions of the order of 1000 GtC. The required additional fossil fuct, %will imohc exploitation of tar sanck, tar shale, hydrolraeking for oil and gas, coal mining, drilling in the :`arctic, Arnazon, deep ocean. and other remote regions, and possibly exploitation of methane hydrates. Thus 2'C .scenarios result in more CO, per unit useable energ> . release of substantial CII, yia the [Wining process and gas transportation, and release of'(:( )2 and other gases via destruction of forest "overburden" to extract subterranean fossil fuels. 'Third. kith our -1 C scenario it is more likely that the biosphere and soil mill be able to sequester a substantial portion of the anthropogenic fossil fuel CO, carbon than in the case of 2'C or more global ecarming. Empirical data for the CO, "airborne fraction", the ratio of observed atmospheric CO„ increase divided by fossil fuel CO, emissions. show that almost half of the emissions is being taken up by surface (terrestrial and ocean carbon reservoirs [t87], despite a substantial but poorh measured contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and agricuhure) to airborne C0,2 [179,216]. Indeed, uptake of' CO, by surface reservoirs has at least kept pace with the rapid growth of emissions [187]. Increased uptake in the past decade may be a consequence of a reduced rate of deforestation [217] and fertilization of the biosphere by atmospheric CO, and nitrogen deposition [187]. With the stable climate of the --1 C scenario it is plausible that major efrorts in reforestation and innproced agricultural practices [15,173,175-177], with appropriate support provided to developing countries, could take up an amount of carbon comparable to the 100 GiC in our -1 -C scenario. On the other hand, with warming of 2'C or more, carbon cycle feedbacks are expected to lead to substantial additional atmospheric CO_ [218-219], perhaps even mailing the Amazon rainforest it source of CO,, [219-220]. Fourth, a scenario that slows and then reverses global %warming makes it possible to reduce other greenhouse gases by reducing their sources [75,221]. "The most important of these gases is Cfll, vwhose reduction in turn reduces tropospheric 03 and it 1120. In contrast, chemistry modeling and paleoclimate records [222] show that trace gases increase with global warming, making it unlikely that overall aunospheric C114 will decrease even if a decrease is achieccd in anthropogenic CII} sources. Reduction of the amount of atmospheric CHk and related ,gases is needed to counterbalance expected forcing from increasing V_O and decreasing sulfate aerosols. tiow let its compare the I C (500 GtC fossil fuel emissions) and the 2C (1000 GtC fossil fuel emissions,) scenarios. Global temperature in 2100 v%ould be close to I ,C in the 500 GtC scenario, and it is less than 1 C if 100 GtC uptake of carbon by the biosphere and soil is achieved via improved agricultural and forestry practices (Pig. 9). In contrast, the 1000 GtC scenario, although nominally designed to yield a fast -feedback climate response of 2 C, would yield a larger e%cntital warming because of.slov% feedbacks, probably at least 3 C. P.OS ONE I w%vw.plosone.org 15 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Danger of Uncontrollable Consequences Inertia of the climate system reduces the near -term impact oI- human-made climate forcings, but that inertia is not necessarily our friend. One implication of the inertia is that climate impacts "in the pipeline- ma} be much greater than the impacts that %ke presently observe. SloN% climate feedbacks add further danger of climate change running out of humanity's control. The respon,r time of these slow feedbacks is uncertain, but there is evidence that some of these feedbacks already arc under%%ay, at least to a minor degree Palcoclitnate data shove that o❑ cenniry and millennial time scales the Simv feedbacks are prcdominatelc ampliliing feedbacks. The inertia of enet�gy systrm infrastructure, i.e., the tune required to replace fossil fuel energy systems. ykill make it exceedingly difficult to avoid it level of atmospheric C:02 that would eeentualk ha%e highly undesirable conSequeaccs. The danger of uncontrollable and irreversible consequences necessarih raises the question ofwhetherit is feasible to extract CO, from the atmosphere on a large enough scale to affect climate change. Carbon Extraction We have shove❑ that extraordinarily rapid emission reductions are needed to stay close to the I'C' scenario. In absence of extraordinary actions, it is likely that gro%king climate clisruptions will lead to a surge o£ interest in `geo-engnreering11 designed to minimize human -made climate change [223]. Such efforts must remove atmospheric CO_, if they are to address direct CO, efl'ects such as ocean acidification as %cell as climate change Schemes such as adding sulfuric acid aerosols to the stratosphere to re[lect sunlight [?24], an attempt to mask one pollutant v%ith another, is a temporary band -aid for it problem that %%ill last Cor millennia; besides it fails to address ocean acidification and ma% have other unintended consequences [995]. Potential for Carbon Extraction At present there are no proven technologies capable of large- scale air capture of CO,. It has been suggested that, with strong research and development support and industrial scale pilot projects sustained over decades, costs as lo%k as---5500/tC: may be achievable [226]. Thermodynamic constraints [2271 suggest that this cost estimate may be (o%v. An assessment by the American Physical Society [2281 argues that the lo%%est eurrenth acliiecablc cost, using existing approaches, is much greater i$600f1(:O, or $2200/t(:). The cost of capturing 50 ppm of COS, at. $500/tC: (---S135/ tCO,), is —$50 trillion (I ppm C0= is —2.12 GW), but more than 5200 trillion for the price estimate of the American Physical Society study. Nforeover, the resulting atmospheric CO, reduction will ultimately be less than 50 ppm for the reasons discussed above. For example, let it., consider the scenario of Fig. 5B in which emissions continue to increase until 2030 before decreasing at 5°„/year — this scenario yields atmospheric CO of [10 ppm in 2100. Using our carbon cycle model we f w calculate that ie extract 100 ppm of CO�, from the air over the period 2030 2100 (10/7 ppm per year), say storing that C0,2 in carbonate bricks. the atmospheric CO_ amount in 2100 will be reduced 52 ppm to 358 ppm, i.e., the reduction of airborne CO, is about half of the amount extracted from the air and stored. The estimated cost of this 52 ppm C;O_ reduction is 5100 100 trillion. The cost of CO, capture and storage conceivably may decline in the future. Yet the practicality ofcarrying out such a program with alacrity in response to a climate emergency is dubious. Thus it mac be appropriate to add a CO, removal cost to the current Assessing Dangerous Climate Change price of fossil fuels, vkhich v%ould both reduce ongoing emissions and provide resources for future cleanup. Responsibility for Carbon Extraction We Locus on fossil fuel carbon, because of its long lifetime in the carbon cycle. Reversing the effect, of deforestation is also important and there will need to he incentives to achieve increased carbon storage in the biosphere and soil, but the crucial requirement novv is to limit the amount of' fossil fuel carbon in the air. The high cost of carbon extraction naturalh raises the question of responsibility Cor excess fi)-il Curl CO, in the air. China has the largest M, emissions today (Fig. l IAi, but the global %%arming effect is clos(-(% proportional to cumulative emissions [190]. The United States is responsible for about one -quarter of cutmulative emission,, %kith China next at about 10°,, iFig. I1W, Cumulative responsibilities change rather slowly iconhpare Fig. 10 of 190). Estimated per capita emissions ,Fig_ 12, arc based on population estimates for 2009-201 1. 1"ariuu1 forutulac might be devised to assign costs of CO. air capture, should removal prove essential for maintaining acceptable climate. For the sake of estimating the potential cost, let it, as.snne that it proves necessary to extract 100 ppm of CO, (yielding a reduction of airborne CO , of about 50 ppm) and let its assign each country the responsibility to clean up its fraction of cumulative emissions. Assuniing it cost of$500/tC (- $135/tCO,) yields a cost of $28 trillion for the United Stairs, about $90,000 per individual. Costs would be slightly higher Cor a UK citizen, but less for other nations (Fig. 1213j. Cost of C0_> capture might decline, but the cost estimate used is more than a factor of four .smaller than estimated be the American Physical Society [228] and 50 ppm is only a moderate reduction. The cost should also include safe permanent disposal of the captured CO, %khich is a substantial mass. For the sake of scaling the task, note that one GW, made into carbonate bricks, %eould produce the volume of —3000 Empire State buildings or --1200 Great P}ramids of Giza. Thus the 26 ppm assigned to the United States, if made into carbonate bricks, would be equivalent to the stone: in 165,000 Empire State buildings or 66,000 Great Pvrarnicl.s of Giza. This is not intended as it practical suggestion: carbonate bricks are not a good building material, and the transport and construction costs would be additional. The point of'this graphic detail is to make clear the magnitude of the cleanup task and potential costs, if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated. more useful and economic vkays of removing GO, mac be devised with the incentive of a sufficient carbon price. For example, a .stream of pure CM becomes available for capture and storage if biomass is used as the fuel for power plants or as feedstock Cor production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. Such clean energy schemes and improved agricultural and forestry practices are likely to be more economic than direct air capture cl'(10- but they must be carefully designed to minimize undesirable impacts and the amount of'CO., that can be extracted on the time Scale of decades %%ill be limited, thus emphasizing the need to Limit the magnitude of the cleanup task. Policy Implications Human -made climate change concerns physical sciences, but leads to implications for policy and politics. Conclusions from the physical Sciences, such as the rapidity with %khieh emissions must be reduced to avoid obviously unacceptable consequences and the long lag between emissions and consequences- lead to implications in social sciences, including economics. law and ethics. Intergov- PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 16 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 A 2012 Annual Emissions (9.6 Gt('/yr) Gtdia G 3"ti _..m c� r "i ryJ _o Rest of x^: i : , J, �a Asia Pacific 8.2% Assessing Dangerous Climate Change 13 1751-2012 Cumulative Emissions (384 GtC) Figure 11. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions. (A) 2012 emissions by source region, and (B) cumulative 1751-2012 emissions. Results are an update of Fig. 10 of [190] using data from [5]. doi:10.1371(journa I.pone.0081648.g011 ernmental climate assessments [1,1I1 purposely are not police prescriptive. Y,-t there is also merit in analysis and discussion of the full topic through the objective lens of seieuc e, i.e., "connecting the dots" all the way to policy implications. Energy and Carbon Pathways: A Fork in the Road The industrial revolution began with wood being replaced by coal as the primary energy source Coal provided more concentrated energy, and thus was more mobile and effective. We shot data for the United States (Fig. 13) because of the availability of a long data record that includes wood [229]. More limited global records yield a similar picture [Fig. I f], the largest difference being global coal now at --30"0 compared kith —20"a in the United States. Economic progress and wealth generation were further .spurred in the twentieth century by expansion into liquid and gaseous fossil fuels, oil and gas being transported and burned more readily than coal. Only in the latter part of the tvticnticth century did it become clear that long-lived combustion products from fossit fuels posed a global climate threat, as formally acknowledged in the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change [6]. However, efTorts to slow emissions of the principal atmospheric gas driving climate change, CO.,, have been ineffectual so far (Fig. 1). Consequently, at present, as the most easily extracted oil and gas reserves are being depleted, \ve stand at a fork in the road to our energti and carbon future. Will we now feed our energy needs by pursuing difficult to extract fossil fuels, or will we pursue energti policies that phase out carbon emissions, moving on to the post fossil fuel era as rapidly as practical.' This is not the first fork encountered Most nations agreed to the Franiervork Convention on Climatc Change in 1992 [6]. Imagine if a bloc of countries favoring action had agreed on a common gradually rising carbon fee collected within each of country at domestic mines and ports of entry. Such nations might place equivalent border duties on products from nations not having a carbon fee and theV could rebate fees to their domestic industry ('or export products to nations without an equivalent carbon fee. The legality of such a border tax adjustment under international trade law is untested, but is considered to be plausibly consistent with trade principles [230]. As the carbon fee gradually rose and as additional nations, for their own benefit, joined this bloc of nations, development of carbon -free energies and energy e[Ticiencv %vould have been spurred. If the carbon fee had begun in 1995, w c A 2012 Per Capita Emissions (tons Carboniyriperson) fi 1751-2012 Cumulative Emissions (tons Carbon person) 4 300 317-171 global 2OU globul _...au ..... I (}0 mea n I 0LA 11 0 s U.S. India Japan U.K. Ault. AsPac S.C.Am U.S. India Japan U.K. Aus'L AsPac S.C.Ant China Russia Germany Canada EUr.Eur. M.East Africa China Russia German,, Canada Eur.Eur. M.East Africa Figure 12. Per capita fossil fuel CO. emissions. Countries, regions and data sources are the same as in Fig. 11, Horizontal lines are the global mean and multiples of the global mean. doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0081648.g012 PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 17 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 US, Etler-, C'onsmiiption by Source 100 80 60 v �40 20 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Figure 13. United States energy consumption [229]. doi:10.1371 fjournal.pone.0081648.g013 calculate that global emissions would have needed to decline 2.1 °%./year to limit cumulative fossil fuel emissions to 500 Gt(:. A start date of 2005 would have required a reduction oC3.5°�I}car for the same resuh. The task faced mcla, is more difficult. Emissions reduction of G°o/year and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soils are needed to get CIO, back to 3,30 ppm, the approximate require- ment for restoring the phmct's energy balance and stabilizing climate this et-tnturc. Such a path%ray is exceedingly difficult to achieve, given the current x6cicspread absence of policies to drive rapid movement to carbon -free energies and the lifetime of encrgn infrastructure in place_ Yet we suggest that a pathwa, is still conceivable that could restore planetary energy balance on the eemury time scale. That path requires policies that spur technology development and provide economic incentives for consumers and businesses such that social tipping points are reaches) ,where consumers mote rapidly to ever, conservation and love carbon energies. Moderate overshoot of required atmospheric CO_ levels can possible be counteracted via uhcenti,es for actions that snore -or -less naturalh sequester carbon. Developed countries, responsible for most of the execs. C.O., in the air might finance extensi,c efforts in de,cloping countries to sequester carbon in the soil and in forest regrowth on marginal lands as described above. Burning sustainabl, designed tl • 1 J . 40 01 Assessing Dangerous Climate Change biolucls in power plants; Gvith the CO captured and sequestered, would also help dray, dohcn atmospheric GO_. This patlmay would need to be taken soon, as the magnitude of such carbon extractions is likch limited and thus not a solution to unfettered fossil fuel use. The alternative pathway, which the hvorld seems to be on now, is continued extraction of all fossil fuels, including development of uncom entional fossil fuels such as tar sands, tar shale, hvdro- (racking to extract oil and gas, and exploitation of methane hydrates. if that path iwith 24,blvear gro,vth) (ontinue; for 20 vcars and is then follo,�ed by 3%/year emission reduction from 2033 to 21,)0. ticc find that fossil fuel emissions in 2150 ,could total 1022 Gt(:. Extraction of the excess GO., from the air in this case would be very expensi, e and perhaps implausible, and warming of the ocean and resulting climate impacts hvould be practicallti irreversible. Economic Implications: Need for a Carbon Fee The implication is that the world must move rapidly to carbon - free energies and cncrgn efficiency. /caving most remaining fossil fuels in the ground, if climate is to be kept (-lost- to the Holocene range and climate disasters averted. Is rapid change possible:' Global Etler(-gv Consumption by Source Excluding Wood 850 1900 1950 2000 Figure 14. World energy consumption for indicated fuels, which excludes wood [4]. doi:10.1371 fjournal.pone.0081648.g014 Ind + 3�tv ,Othc%mal oin"t; PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 18 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 The potential for rapid change cam be shop n b% examples. A basic requirement for phasing dov%n fossil fuel emissions is abundant carbon -free electricity, which is the most rapidly grow%in,g form of energy and also has the potential to provide ener,g,} Cor transportation and heating of' buildings. In one decade i1977-1987), Prance increased its nuclear power production 15- Cold, kith the nuclear portion ('its clectricit% increasing from 8"(, to 70q�, [231]. In one decade (2001 2011) Germanv increased the non -hydroelectric reno-wahle energy portion of its electricity from P,) to 19"i,, with fossil fuels decreasing from 63".a to 61"=o dtvdroclectric decreased from +°,) to 3"„ and nuclear powwer decreased from ` 0"„ to 18 ' , [231]. Given the huge task of replacing fossil fitels, contributions arc surely required from energy efficiency, renex%able energies, and nuclear power, kith the mix depending on local preferences. Rencirabl , energy and nuclear poker have been limited in part by technical challenges. tiuclear power faces persistent concerns about safety, nuclear waste, and potential weapons proliferation, despite past contributions to mortality prevention and climate change mitigation [232]. Most renev%able energies tap difhrse intermittent sources often at a distance Front the user population, thus requiring large-scale energy storage and transport. Dcyelop- ing technologies can ameliorate these issues, as discussed below. However, apparent cost is the constraint that prevents nuclear and renewable energies from Cully supplanting fossil fuel electricity generation. Transition to a post-Coa,il fuel world oC clean energies v%ill not occur as long as fossil fuels appear to the investor and consumer to Ile the cheapest energy. Fossil Fuels are cheap only because they do not pay their costs to society and receive large direct and indirect subsidies [233]. Air and vcater pollution front Fossil fuel extraction and use have high costs in human health, food production, and natural ecosystems, killing more than 1,000,000 people per, year and affecting the health of billions of people [232,234], with costs borne by the public. Costs of climate change and ocean acidification, already substantial and expected to grove consider- ably [26,235], also are borne by the public, espccially by young people and Future generations. Thus the essential underlying policy, albeit not sufficient, is for emissions of CO" to come with a price that allows these costs to be internalized within the economics of energy use. Because so much energy is used through expensive capual stock, the price should rise in a predictable way to enable people and businesses to efficicnily adjust lifestyles and investments to minimize costs. Reasons Cor preference of a carbon fee or tax over cap -and -trade include the former's simplicity and relative ease of becoming global [236]. A near -global carbon tax ytight be achieved, e.g.. via a bi-lateral agreement between China and the United States, the greatest emitters, with a border duty unposed on products from nations v%ithout a carbon tax, which would provide it strong incentive for other nations to impose an equivalent carbon tax. The suggestion of a carbon fee collected front fossil fuel companies with all revenues distributed to the public on a per capita basis [237] has receivec) at least limited support [238]. Economic analyses indicate that a carbon price hilly incorpo- rating environmental and climate damage would be high [239]. The cost of climate change is uncertain to it factor of 10 or more and could be as high as ---81000/tCO [233,240]_ G1'ltile the imposition of such a high price on carbon emissions is outside the realm ofshort-term political feasibility, a price oCthat magnitude is not required to engender a large change in emissions trajectory. An economic analysis indicates that a tax beginning at S15/ tCU, and rising S10/tCO., each year woulcl reduce emissions in the U.S. by 30°a within 10 years [241]. Such a reduction is more Assessing Dangerous Climate Change than 10 times as great as the carbon content oFtar sands oil carried by the proposed keystone `YE pipeline ,830,000 barrels/(1oci [2 121. Reduced oil demand would be ncarlt six times the pipeline capacity 1211], thus the carbon fee is far more c1lectice than the proposed pipeline. A rising carbon fee is the sine qua non for fossil Cuel phase out, but not enough by itself. Investment is needed in RI)&I) research. development and demonstration) to help renevyahIc energies and nuclear powwer overcome obstacles limiting their conuibutions. Interatittcncy of solar and vwind power can be alleviated with advancers in cnerg} storage. lose -loss smart electric grids, and electrical vrhicics interacting with the grid. Most oFtodac"s uucicar poww(,r plants have half -century -old technology %ynth light -neater reactors [2 H] Wilizing less than I",) of' the energy in the nuclear Fuel and leaving unused fuel as long -lined nuclear "waste,. requiring sequestration for millennia. Modern light -water reactors can employ cotn�ectiyc cooling to eliminate the need to] external cooling in the event of an anomaly such as an carthquakc. However, the long-term future of nuclear power will cruploy `'Cast" reactors, which utilize —99`�, of the nuclear fuel and can "burn" nuclear s%aste and excess weapons material [213]. It should be possible to reduce the cost of nuclear power via modular standard reactor design, bill governments need to provide a regulator\ environment that supports timely construction of approved designs. 1W&D on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology IS needed, especially given our conclusion that the current atmospheric CO,, level is already in the dangerous zone, but continuing issues with CGS technology- [7,211] make it inappro- priate to construct Fossil fuel power plants v%ith a promise of future retrofit for carbon capture. Governments should support energy planning for housing and transportation, energy and carbon efficiency requirements for buildings, vehicles and other manu- factured products, and climate mitigation and adaptation in undeveloped countries. Economic effuciencv v%ould be improved by a rising carbon fee. Energy efTcicncy and alternative low -carbon and no -carbon clergies should be allowed to compete on an equal footing, without subsidies, and the public and business community should be made aware that the fee will continually rise. The Ive for unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil from tar sands and gas from hvdrofracking, should include carbon released in mining and refuting processes. e.g., methane leakage in hvdrofracking [215- 249]. U the carbon fee rises continually and predictably, the resulting energti transformations should generate many jobs, a wekomc benefit Cor nations still suffering from long-standing economic recession. Economic modeling shov%s that about 60% of the public, especially lov%-income people, would receive more money via a per capita 100". dispersal of the collected fee than they would pay because of increased prices [241]. Fairness: Intergenerational Justice and Human Rights Relevant fundamentals of climate science are clear. 'I'll(, physical climate system has great inertia, which is due especially to the thermal inertia of the ocean, the: time required For ice sheets to respond to global warming, and the longevity of' fossil fuel CO_ in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere). This inertia implies that there is additional climate change "in the pipeline" even without further change of atmospheric composition. Climate system inertia also means that, if large-scale climate change is allowed to occur, it will be exceedingly long-lived. lasting for many centuries. One implication is the likelihood of intergenerational cfI cts, with young people and future generations inheriting a situation in which grave consequences are assured, practically out of their PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 19 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 control, but not of their doing. The possibility of' such inter;gen- erational injustice is not remote - it is at our doorstep now. W(- haye a planetary climate crisis that requires urgent change to our encrm and carbon pathttay to avoid dangerous consequences for young people and other, Life oil Earth, Yet governments and industry are rushing into expanded use of lossil heels, including unconventional Fossil fuel, such as tar sands. tar shale, shale ,gas extracted by hydrolracking, mud methane h0rates. How can this course be unfolding despite kno%rledle of climate consequences and evidence that a rising carbon price would be economic alh eflicicnt and reduce demand for Cosail Cueh_' A cast, has been made that the absence of ellcctivc goyernrncnutl leadership is related to the effect of special interests on policy, as well as to public relations efforts by organization, that profit from the public's addiction to lossil fuels [237,250]. The judicial branch of governments may be less subject to pressure, from special Curancial interests than the cxecutkc and legislative branches, and the courts are expected to protect the rights of all people, including the less powerCul. The concept that the atmosphere is a public trust [251], that today, adults must deliver to their children and future generations an atmosphere as beneficial as the one they received. is the basis for it lawsuit [252] in which it is argued that the U.S. ,government is obligated to protect the atmosphere from harmful greenhouse gases. Independent of this specific lawsuit, are suggest that intergen- crational justice in this matter derives from lundamernal rights of equality and justice. 1`he Universal Declaration oC Human Right, [253] declares "All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law." Further, to consider a specific example, the United States Constitution provides all citizens "cqual protection of the laws" and states that no person can be deprived of "life. liberty or property vyithout due process oC law". These fundamental rights are a basis For Voting people to expect Cairness and justice in a matter as essential as the condition of` the planet they will inhabit. We do not prescribe the legal arguments bywhich these rights can Ile achievecl, but we maintain that failure of governments to efrectively address climate change infringes on Fundamental rights Of' young people. Ultunately, however, human -made climate change is more a matter of morality than a legal issue. Broad public support iS probably needed to achieve the changes needed to phase out fossil fuel emissions. As with the issue of slavery and civil rights, public recognition of the moral dimensions of human -made climate change may be needed to stir the public's conscience to the point of- action. A scenario is conecicable in which growing evidence oC climate change and recognition of implication, for young people lead to massive public support for action. Influential industry leaders, aware of the moral issue, may join the campaign to phase out emissions, with more business leaders becoming supportive as they recognize the merits of a rising price on carbon. Given the relative ease with which a flat carbon price can be made international [236], a rapid global emissions phasedoon is feasible. As fossil fuels ate made to pay their costs to society, energy efficiency and clean energies may reach tipping points and begin to be rapidly adopted. Our analysis shows that a set of actions exists with a good chance of averting "dangerous" climate change, if the actions begin now. However, vye also show that time is running out. Unless a human "tipping- point" is reached soon, with implemen- tation of effective policy actions, large irreversible climate changes will become unavoidable. Our parent's generation did not know that their energy use would harm future generations and other life Assessing Dangerous Climate Change on the planet. Ifwe do not change our course, we can only pretend that oc did not knovy. Discussion We conclude that an appropriate target is to keep global temperature vtithirt or close to the temperature range in the Holocene, the interglacial period in which civilization developed. With vyarming of 0.8 C in the past venture_ Earth is just emerging from that range, implying that ate need to restore the planet', encrg� balance and curb further warninw. A limit of approx- intawk 500 GtC on cumulative IO-il fuel ennis,ions, accompanied by a net storage of 100 GK: in the biosphere and soil, could keep global temperature close to the Holocene range, assuming that the net ftuure forcing change from other Tutor, is small The longevity of global warnning (Fig. 9) and the irnplau,ibiliu of removing the warming if it is once allotted to penetrate the deep ocean emphasize the urgexicy of slotting emissions so as to Stay close to the 500 GtC target. Fossil fuel emissions of 1000 GtC, sometimes associated tyith a 2 C: global warnning target, would be expected to cause hu—c climate change With disastrous consequences. The eventual vyarming from 1000 GtC fossil fuel emissions likely would reach well over 2 C, for several reasons. With such emissions and temperature tendency, other trace greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide would be expected to increase, adding to the eficct of CO ­The global warming and shifting climate zones would make it less likely that a substantial increase in forest and soil carbon could be achieved. Paleoclimate data indicate that slow feedbacks would substantially amplif} the 2 C global warming. It is clear that pushing global climate Car outSide the Holocene range is inherently dangerous and foolhardy. The fifth IPCC assessment Summary for Policymakcrs [14] concludes that to achieve a 50"t, chance of keeping global warming below 2 C equivalent CO, emissions should not exceed 1210 GtC:, and after accounting for non -CO, climate forcings this limit on GO, emissions becomes 840 GtC. The existing drafts oC the fifth IPCC. assessment are not yet approved For comparison and citation, but the IPCC assessment is consistent with studies of blcinshattsen et al. [254] and Allen et al. [13], hereafter N12009 and A2009, with tchich oe can make comparisons. We will also compare our conclusions with those of McKibben [255]. N12009 and A2009 appear together in the same journal with the two lead authors on each paper being co-authors on the other paper_ McKibben [255], published in it popular magazine, uses quantitative results of M2009 to conclude that most remaining fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground, ifglobal warming this century is to be kept belovt 2'C. McKibben [255] has been very successful in drawing public attention to the urgency of' rapidly phasing doom fossil fuel emissions. M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allotted to vary, thus yielding a probability, distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21 si century. M2009 use this distribution to infer a limit on total (fossil fuel+net land use) carbon emissions in the period 2000-2049 if global vyarming in the 2lst century is to be kept below 2'C at some specified probability. For example, they conclude that the limit o❑ total 2000 2049 carbon emissions is 1440 GWO_ '393 G(C) to achieve a 50°0 chance that 21st venue\ global tyarnning will not exceed 2 C. A2009 also use a large ensemble of model runs, varying uncertain parameters, and conclude that total ;fossil fuel+nct land user carbon emissions of 1000 GtC' would most likely yield a peak PLOS ONE I www.plosone.org 20 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 CO, -induced «arming of'2 C, with 90" o confidence that the peak warming \\mild be in the range 1.3-3.9 C: 'I'hev note that their results are consistent with those of M2009, as the A2009 seenatios that yield 2 C \\arriving hate 100 500 GtC emissions during 2000 20 R N12009 find 393 GW emission, for 2 C warming. but M2009 included it net vyarning effect of non -CO_ forcings, vchile A2009 neglected non -GO forcings. McKibben 125 ] uses results of N12009 to infer allowable fossil fuel emissions up to 2050 if there is to be an 80"b chance that maximum warming in the 21 st cenutrc gill not exceed 2 C above the pic-industrial level. t112009 conclude than ati viug tender this 2 C: limit with 80 probability require, that 2000 2019 cmissions must be limited to 656 GWO, (179 GtC) for 2007-2019. McKibben [255] used this 112009 result to determine a remaining carbon budget (at a time not specified exa(th) of:)65 GWO, (15�1 GtC! if \\arming is to stay under 2 C. Let us update this analysis to the present: fossil fuel emissions in 2007-2012 were 51 GtC 15], so, assuming no net emissions from land use in these few years, the N12009 study implies that the remaining budget at the beginning of 2013 was 128 GtC. Thus, eOincidcntaIhy the McKibben [255] approach via M2009 yields almost exacdv the same remaining carbon budget (128 GtG as our analysis (130 GtC). However, our budget is that required to limit warming to about 1 C (dare is a temporary maximum during this century at about 1.1-L2 C, Mg. 9), while McKibben [255] is allowing global warming to reach 2`C, which \ye have concluded vcould be a disaster scenario! This apparently vast difference arises from three major factors. First, we assumed that reforestation and improved agricultural and foresu•y practices can suck up the net land use carbon of the past. We estimate net land use emissions as 100 GtC, while N12009 have land use en rksions almost twice that large (--180 GtC). We argue elsewhere (.see section 1 1 in Supporting Information of [5 1]) that the commonly employed net land use estimates [236] arc about a factor oftwo larger than the net land use carbon that is most consistent with observed CO, history. However, yw need not resolve that long-standing controversy here. The point is that, to make the M2009 study equivalent to ours, negative land use omissions mussbe included in the 21st century equal to earlier positive land use emissions. Second, we have assumed that future net change of non -CO, forcings will be zero: while N12009 have included significant non- forcings. In recent gears non -GO, GHGs have provided about 20°0 of the increase of total GHG climate forcing. Third. our calculations are for a single fast -feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity, 3 C for doubled CO,,, \\'}rich we infer from paleoclimate data. N12009 use a range of climate sensitivities to compute a probability distribution Function for expected warming, and then McKibben [255] selects the carbon emission limit that keeps 80',,t of the probabilitydistribution below 2-(:. The third factor is a matter of methodology, but one tO be bolo( - in mind. Regarding the first two factors, it may be argued that our scenario is optimistic. That is true, but both goals, extracting 100 GtC from the atmosphere via improved forestry and agricultural practices (\kith possibly sons assistance Front CCS technology) and limiting additional net change of non -CO, forcings to zero, are feasible and probably much easier than the principal task of limiting additional fossil fuel emissions to 130 GtC. We noted above that reforestation and improving agricultural and forestry practices that store more carbon in the soil make sense for other reasons. Also that task is made easier by the excess CO_ in the air today, which causes vegetation to take up CO, more etliciernly. Indeed, this may be the mason that net land use emissions seem to be less than is often assumed. Assessing Dangerous Climate Change As for the non -CO., Iorcings, it is noteworthy that greenhouse gases controlled by the (Montreal Protocol arc tow decreasing, and recent aigreemerrt has been achieved to use the Montreal Protocol to phase out production of some additional greenhouse gasses even though those gases do not aIlcet the ozone laver. The most important non -CO, forcing is methane, vyhosc increases in Will Caw;(' tropospheric ozone and stratospheric wawr vapor to increase. Fossil fuel use is probably the largest source of nmthene [1]. so if fossil fuel use begins to be phased down, there is ,good basis to anticipate that all three of these greenhouse gases could decrease, because of the approximate 10-year lifetime of mcthanc. As for fossil fuel CO" emissions, consicicring the large, long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure in place, the science is telling us that police should be set to reduce emission, as rapid(} as possible. The most Fundamental implication is the need for an across-the-board rising fec on fossil fuel emissions in order to allow true Fee market competition from non -fossil energy sources. We note that biospheric storage should not be allowed to offset Further fossil fuel emissions. Most fossil fuel carbon will remain in the climate system more than 100,000 years, so it is essential to limit the emission of fossil fuel carbon. It willbe necessary tc have incentives to restore biosphcric carbon, but these must be accompanied by decreased fossil fuel emissions. A crucial point to note is that the three tasks [limiting fossil fuel CO, emissions, limiting (and reeersing) hind use emissions, limiting (and reversing) growth of non -CO. Forchngs] are interactive and reinforcing. In mathematical terms, the problem is non -linear. As one of these climate forcings increases, it increases the others. The good news is that, as one of them decreases, it tends to decrease the others. In order to bestow upon Culture generations a planet like the one we received, we need to %\irn on all three counts, and by Cnr the most important is rapid pha.sedoNm of fossil fuel erttissions. It is distressing that, despite the clarity and imminence of the clanger of continued high fossil fuel emissions, governments continue to allow and even encourage pursuit of ever more fossil Fuel,. Recognition of this reality and perceptions of what is "politically feasible" may partially account for acceptance of targets for global warning and carbon emissions that arc well into the range of "dangerous human -made interference" with climate. Although there is merit in simply chronicling what is happening, there is still opportunity for humarnity to exercise free will. Thus our objective is to define what the science indicates is needed, not to assess political feasibility. Further, it is not obvious to us that there are physical or economic limitations that prohibit fossil fuel emission targets far lower than 1000 GW, even targets closer to 500 0(1, Indeed, we suggest that rapid transition off fossil fuels \could have numerous near -term and long-term social benefits, including improved human health and outstanding potential for job creation. A world summit on climate change will be held at United -Nations Headquarters in September 2011 as a preliminary to negotiation of a nevv climate treaty in Paris it late 201). If this treaty is analogous to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol [257], based on national targets for emission reductions and cap -and -trade -with - offsets emissions trading mechanisms, climate deterioration and gross intergenerational injustice will be practically guaranteed. The palpable danger that such an approach is conceivable is suggested by examination of proposed climate policies ofeven the most forward -looking of nations_-Norvkay, vvhicln along with the other Scandinavian countries has been among the most ambitious and successful of all nations in reducing its emissions, nevertheless approves expanded oil drilling in the arctic and development of tar sands as it majority owner of Statoil [258-259]_ Emissions PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 21 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 foreseen by the Enerp Per,peciives of Siatoil ['259], if thcx occur, ,could approach or exceed 1000 GtC and cause dramatic climate change that would run out of control of future generations. 11" in contrast, leading nations agn-ce in 2015 to hac e internal rising fee, on carbon kith border duties on products from umiions icithout a carbon Gs, a foundation vcould he established for phaseo,rr to carbon lire energies and stable climate. 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The puper i, dedicated to Paul Epstein. a Icnrrit delendcr ol'the health of humans and the cmirunilloW. tilt graciou,h provided important input, to till, paper ,chile baulin�, late stage, of non -Hodgkin', h ntphoma_ A\ c thank Da, id At, lice. Lxz Fuug, Charle, Konsano(l' and t,co auomnwu, referee, for percepti,c helplul reeic,c, and Mark (:handler. Bishop Dinh\. tan Dunlop, Dian Gallen Seidel, Eduard Gniseh, Fled Hendrick.'Fin Mock, .Unit Piados, Stefan Rahns,turf, Rob Soc'olow and (;,-urge Stanlurd for helpful suggc,tions on a droll of the paper. Author Contributions C;onccivcd and designed the experiments: J11 PIC \IS. Performed the czperinunts: MS PK. YCrotc the pagan: JH. Wtotc the fii,t dials JH. All author, tnude nunurous critique, and snggc,tcd ,pecili( ,lording and refc1en,cs:JI1 PK, AIS WILD FA DJB I' JEI OHG SEH Cl'JR F;JItJS 1'S KS IA'S Kx S j(:/.. Fspccialh: Pig -MS V'M-D. 21. So--jC, K,ttcoc C, Barret :A. 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Hitch .AL, Alcunvka S.A, o :d. 2012 I cEcl­cerbnn emission, charnci,rimtinns m the Colurctdo Front R"U. ,j Gcophts Rt 117, D0410L Petrov G. Fula GJ, Trainer A16_ Milicr BR, Dlugokenckt PJ, et e1. �2UI:, Reply to comment on -Hlelrocarbnn env„ions ch;uu-ierizatinn in the Coh-do Front Rome :A pilot studs" be Nfichael A. Ix, i,.j Geophr, Res I18. DOIf3W Assessing Dangerous Climate Change 2-49- Al-,- R\- Paola 5V\, Wm,,bt ke,jj. Chnmcidca VCL. Hambu - SP 2012 Gnnuv (ucu. nvcded on methanr L kt,c ii-ntn natural �.�� mh,uiructut-c. Prnr S:u1 Akad Sci C'S:A. 250. Orcakcs S, Conde LV1 010. 1lcrchant, of Doubt: Hour a Handful oI Sricntias Olxscurcd the Tnuh nn Issue. (i-om Tobacco Smoke to Global \A'arming. Nett fork: Woa....I P""" 3i5 pp_ mcrchnntsotdoubt-trg- 2r I . 1".d NK: DUI :Auno,phctic Tru t Lineation_ In: I3uros tCCG. O okkt I IM, ahwr_,- Adjucliauing C'lim:uc Chan{,: Suh-S,um.';d' Nat ]n mL .led Super \u4"d Appnanc�s. C:uv AWn C.nnbrQ F-nitrtQ Pr 49 12, At aihtlilc: hop:/ltrtrtr l.ttc.uoregnn.cdu/Iacullc(mtrood/dues/aunn phcric. pcll. 20 AlccLr-Jacl;_.onDDC-Au_I A 03 .I?/I-}/II.A'oiledSm"IWQt Court. Di,u'ict of Cohunhm (nitercd D.c lnr<vian nl 11um,n Rvs,Lt, hop://-, km n,/cm/d­ununt,/ ud I•, r/ . 20 Ah-NU.— NL AIeinsha u,en N, Ham \\, Rap, tiCft- Rlcler K' ct al. 3 ") Greenhouse as emission WwN fix limiting OdW tee bg to 2 C. Sature -158, 1]-)8 1162. 20 llcliibben L' 1012 (.aulrtl mach. Rolling Sronc- lyn 2. 2A, Houghton RA iP00.1 Rem Aw eaim:nc, A A annual net Iluc nf—&. to the atmosphere b."n , in Lind use and land m:magenu-ni 185f1 20a0. 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PLOS ONE ( www.plosone.org 26 December 2013 1 Volume 8 1 Issue 12 1 e81648 Coirnirnuvvity Divisions •Planning - 10 • Long Range Planning • Current Planning •Building Safety - 4 • Housing • Code Compliance Page 2-100 111quuu111111ilu IIIL, Illi�.. lmmm��Vw EM Im am am COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT Biennium 2017-19 FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19 Description Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed Personal Services $ 1,268,050 $ 2,817,403 $ 3,117,750 $ 1,645,523 $ 1,697,147 $ 3,342,675 Materials and Services 643,917 1,392,394 1,667,701 1,222,140 924,925 2,147,065 $ 1,911,967 $ 4,209,797 $ 4,785,451 $ 2,867,668 $ 2,622,072 $ 5,489,740 Department Total By Fund General Fund $ 1,810,055 $ 3,874,733 $ 4,345,653 $ 2,572,523 $ 2,463,432 $ 5,035,955 CD Block Fund 101,912 335,064 439,798 295,145 158,640 453,785 $ 1,911,967 $ 4,209,797 $ 4,785,451 $ 2,867,668 $ 2,622,072 $ 5,489,740 IIIIIIII�IIIIIIIII (III IIIIIIIII VIIIIIII IIIIII IIIIIII IIIIII IIIIIII (IIIIIIIIIII � IIIIII�IIIII�IIIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIII III,. �uuullll uuum I IIIIIIIII I IIIIIIIII IIIIIIIII I IIIIII � ...�� lu�..."""' IIIIII a uuuu I llllluuu IIIIIIII w��uuo IIIIII I RM M I p. III 1 0 am Description Fund#110 Personal Services 510 Salaries and Wages 520 Fringe Benefits Total Personal Services Materials and Services 601 Supplies 602 Rental, Repair, Maintenance 603 Communications 604 Contractual Services 605 Misc. Charges and Fees 606 Other Purchased Services 608 Commissions 609 Grants 610 Programs Total Materials and Services GENERALFUND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT PLANNING DIVISION (Including Housing Program) Biennium 2017-19 FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015.17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19 Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed $ 550,160 $ 1,239,564 $ 1,344,050 $ 706,648 $ 709,630 $ 1,416,278 295,604 676,498 783,710 458,455 484,567 943,022 845,764 1,916,062 2,127,760 1,165,103 1,194,197 2,359,300 8,472 17,479 20,250 9,727 9,728 19,455 12,486 13,958 16,148 5,375 5,375 10,750 1,620 3,877 4,700 2,650 2,650 5,300 19,516 54,628 108,000 46,500 51,500 98,000 242,337 503,255 537,965 284,137 284,387 568,524 13,791 25,049 33,100 16,400 16,400 32,800 1,799 2,912 4,500 1,300 1,300 2,600 166,351 - 166,351 14,503 9,971 34,000 12,500 12,500 25,000 314,524 631,129 758,663 544,940 383,840 928,780 GENERALFUND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT SOCIAL SERVICES DIVISION Biennium 2017.19 FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19 Description Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed Fund#110 Materials and Services 609 Grants $ 123,394 $ 254,205 $ 267,933 $ 133,970 $ 133,970 $ 267,940 Total Materials and Services $ 123,394 $ 254,205 $ 267,933 $ 133,970 $ 133,970 $ 2671940 EXPENDITURES Description Fund# 250 Personal Services 510 Salaries and Wages 520 Fringe Benefits Total Personal Services Materials and Services 606 Other Purchased Services 609 Grants Total Materials and Services COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT FUND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT DIVISION Biennium 2017-19 FY 2012-13 BN 2013.15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19 Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed $ 20,746 $ 44,436 $ 42,580 $ 19,520 $ 19,130 $ 38,650 11,700 23,124 22,840 11,990 12,240 24,230 32,446 67,560 65,420 31,510 31,370 62,880 360 374 800 200 200 400 69,106 267,130 373,578 263,435 127,070 390,505 69,466 267,504 374,378 263,635 127,270 390,905 $ 101,912 $ 335,064 $ 439,798 $ 295,145 $ 158,640 $ 453,785 uuuuuuUluuum umllll ulllum uuu umllllll IIIII�. IIIIIII pv I� llluu����� uuuu i iuuuu i uuu N hnuumm � m uuu,,, V .... ...�� llllu�....^' Ium a uuuu � lllluuuuuu� uuuu Iu EM 23 Description Fund# 110 Personal Services 510 Salaries and Wages 520 Fringe Benefits Total Personal Services Materials and Services 601 Supplies 602 Rental, Repair, Maintenance 603 Communications 604 Contractual Services 605 Misc. Charges and Fees 606 Other Purchased Services Total Materials and Services GENERALFUND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT BUILDING DIVISION Biennium 2017.19 FY 2012-13 BN 2013-15 BN 2015-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 BN 2017-19 Actual Actual Amended Budget Proposed Proposed Proposed $ 267,210 $ 539,789 $ 588,200 $ 275,085 $ 286,040 $ 561,125 122,630 293,992 336,370 173,830 185,540 359,370 389,840 833,781 924,570 448,915 471,580 920,495 4,451 7,499 7,300 4,325 4,325 8,650 36,112 31,491 35,420 3,700 3,700 7,400 2,398 4,497 6,560 5,750 5,750 11,500 5,010 33,822 35,000 17,500 17,500 35,000 202,110 407,457 434,880 240,720 240,970 481,690 9,846 8,995 15,500 7,600 7,600 15,200 259,927 493,761 534,660 279,595 279,845 559,440 $ 649,767 $ 1,327,542 $ 1,459,230 $ 728,510 $ 751,425 $ 1,479,935 Questions? ll"Iulblit Works,,ii, Infrastructure • Water System - 17 FTE's • Wastewater System - 11.3 FTE's • Road Network - 10.9 FTE's • Storm Drain System - 3.05 FTE's • Airport - 0 FTE's IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIiIIIIIIII i� Questions? Questions? Questions? Questions? Questions? 11"Iulblit Works,,ii, Support Divisions • Public Works Support - 14m5 FTE's • Fleet Maintenance - 6.5 FTE's • Facilities Maintenance - 3 FTE's • Cemeteries - 2 FTE's gym, luuuum uuuuu Questions?