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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2016.09.07 CEAP Agenda Packet Climate and Energy.Action Plan Climate and Energy Plan Committee Meeting Agenda September 7, 201 6 3-030..........530 Communi ty I)cvclopmcnt Building Agefi.da .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. Call to Order Rich 5 min . Approval of Minutes—August 17,2016 Claudia Icebreaker Question is min Public Forum aicl, 20 min Plan Development — Vision Refresh Consultant Team (Jeff/Jill) 20 min Open House Plan — Prep and outreach Consultant Team(Andrea/Jeff) s min Geos Vulnerability Assessment (draft) tvtar„i ................. 60 min Strategies and Actions — Follow up discussion Consultant Team(Andrea/Jeff) ,-� cIrr or CASCADIA ,NSHLAND Minutes for the Climate and Energy Action Plan ad hoc Committee August 17,2016 Page 1 of 4 MINUTES FOR THE CLIMATE & ENERGY ACTION PLAN ad hoc COMMITTEE Wednesday, August 17, 2016 Siskiyou Room, 51 Winburn Way 1. Call to Order Councilor Rich Rosenthal called the meeting to order at 5:30 p.m. Committee members Rich Rosenthal, Marni Koopman, Louise Shawkat, Greg Jones, Stuart Green, James McGinnis, Roxanne Beigel-Coryell, Jim Hartman, Cindy Bernard, Isaac Bevers, Sarah Lasoff, Bryan Sohl and Claudia Alick were present. Staff member Adam Hanks was present. 2. Approval of Minutes Sohl/Jones m/s to approve the minutes of July 6, 2016, as presented. Voice Vote: All Ayes. Motion Passes. 3. Public Forum Ken Croker— shared thoughts from previous meeting and is concerned with how targets are being set and why, especially with the goal/target changing from one meeting to the next. Stated that he feels it is important for the targets to be based on science and feels that the committee's targets were based on fear of acceptance/approval by Council rather than by science. Morgan Lindsay— stated her view that this is an urgent topic given the heat and air quality issues, which is toughest on the community's most vulnerable citizens. Reminded the committee that the Eugene target included an annual 7.8% reduction by 2050 and City operations carbon and fossil fuel neutral even earlier. She also supports the draft ordinance for goals/targets Hannah Sohl—Requested the committee to pass the goals/target ordinance as soon as possible, get the ordinance discussion out of the way to be able to work on the plan to achieve it. Robert Block-Brown—Appreciates the work of the committee and re-stated the urgency of moving the ordinance forward as quickly as possible then continuing to work on the plan. Suggested that the ordinance be made public for better understanding in the community of the criteria and the broad array of current GHG impacts/emissions in the community. Allie Rosenbleuth— Supports the work of the commission and supports moving the ordinance forward as soon as possible. Huelz Gutchen—Informed the committee that he thinks 7 megawatts of solar locally is possible, stated that the recent presentation from the City Electric Director shows that solar issues/programs should be in the Community Development Dept not in the Electric Dept and that the City needs solar trained employees. Minutes for the Climate and Energy Action Plan ad hoc Committee August 17,2016 Page 2 of 4 4. Recap of Council Presentation Chair Rosenthal provided a short recap of the July 19 committee presentation to the Council, adding that he thought it was well received and suggested that anyone who was interested to go to the City website and see the presentation materials and watch the presentation video if they were interested in the details. Rosenthal also provided a brief update on the recent Council discussion/direction regarding the recent ballot measure that directs the City to approve an ordinance that requires the City to produce 10% of the community's electricity from local and clean sources by 2020. Rosenthal outlined the state ballot measure process and directed interested committee members to the August 16 Council meeting agenda and video for more information and informed them of the official Council vote for acceptance/approval of the ordinance on the September 6 Council meeting. 5. Discussion of Goals/Target Ordinance Koopman advocated to the committee that the goal and target should be science based. Rosenthal asked for a definition of science based and Koopman stated that a science based goal/target is one that meets the per capita carbon reduction required to restore the carbon intensity of the atmosphere back to 350 parts per million(or less). Koopman added that the goal ordinance that has been worked on by others in the community contains a science based target and was based on the Eugene ordinance, which also doesn't exclude consumption based emissions from the goal/target. Rosenthal referenced the staff memo in the meeting packet that identified two key questions for the committee relating to the goals/target ordinance issue. One question is whether to recommend that the goals/target ordinance be forwarded to staff with the intention of having the ordinance adopted by Council as soon as possible. The other option is to recommend that an action be developed in the plan to adopt the goals/targets via ordinance concurrent with the adoption of the plan. Beigel-Coryell noted that she was one of the committee members who was originally opposed to including consumption in the goal/target, but now feels like it should be re-evaluated and made a motion to recommend the adoption of the draft goals/target ordinance as soon as possible. Second made by SAL Sohl explained that he feels that approving the ordinance first keeps the committee honest in response to community requests, tells the youth of the community that we hear them and also noted that the Council make up could change between now and when the plan is presented. Sohl also noted that he felt that Eugene in retrospect would have done the ordinance earlier rather than later if they could do it over again. Koopman added that forwarding the ordinance for adoption now would assist the committee in being able to move forward and would help focus the committee. Minutes for the Climate and Energy Action Plan ad hoc Committee August 17,2016 Page 3 of 4 McGinnis noted he was originally resistant to advocating for the ordinance before the plan was completed but now sees value in moving it forward, but still wonders if Council would be receptive given they would not have an understanding of the implications of the ordinance since the plan wouldn't be in front of them. He added that he feels there are adequate checks and balances in City and the ordinance puts a responsibility on the Council to communicate back to the public. Shawkat added that she likes it being a challenge and is concerned with the potential Council changes. Lasoff and Alick advocated her support of advancing the ordinance now. Bevers added that he feels the Council can't make action decisions without a goal in place. Bernard stated that she originally opposed the idea of the ordinance going before the plan, but now thinks the timing could work fine by moving it forward for staff to work on and prepare for Council consideration. Jones added that this is really just a timing question, not whether or not the committee supports an ordinance for the goals/target and is in support of moving it forward now. Rosenthal agreed with Jones. The committee voted on the motion and it passed unanimously. The committee asked about the next steps for the ordinance. Hanks responded by explaining that both he and the City Attorney would need to review the draft ordinance document. Hanks also suggested that the committee formally endorse the draft ordinance that has been circulating around but never formally submitted as the working ordinance template. Alick motioned that the draft that the committee had been sent from Rogue Climate should be accepted by the committee and used as the working ordinance template. McGinnis second. Jones clarified that the document would be the baseline not the finished document. The committee voted on the motion and passed it unanimously. 6. Focus Group activity on initial draft actions list Rosenthal turned this agenda item over to Jeff Golden, part of the Cascadia consultant project team. Golden stepped the committee through the planned activity and referenced the materials in the meeting packet. The committee then broke into their assigned focus area groups and worked on initial sorting and prioritizing of the initial strategies and actions, including adding additional actions. Minutes for the Climate and Energy Action Plan ad hoc Committee August 17,2016 Page 4 of 4 7. Follow up for next meeting At the conclusion of the multi-step process, Golden requested that the small groups meet again outside of the regular committee meetings to continue with the exercise if they hadn't finished and to submit final notes to Hanks by August 31 so that the process could be continued at the September 7 committee meeting. Rosenthal offered to assist in coordinating and distributing the informal meeting times for the various groups in case others wanted to participate in more than one focus area discussion. 8. Adjournment Meeting adjourned at 7:35 p.m. Respectfully submitted, Adam Hanks Administration Ashland Climate and Energy Plan: Open House#2 Plan DRAFT—8/30/2016 Meeting Date: 9/25 Meeting Time: 3:00-5:OOpm Meeting Location:SOU Anticipated Number of Attendees: 80-120 Meeting Purpose: Allow the public to explore potential strategies to address climate change in Ashland, and provide input on considerations and priorities. Educate the public on Ashland's emissions forecast model and climate vulnerabilities. Meeting Agenda: TopicTime 3:00-3:15pm Open House begins—welcome, refreshments 3:15-3:30pm Welcome comments and brief presentation 3:30pm-5:OOpm Visit stations/talk with staff/provide feedback 5:OOpm Open House adjourns Meeting Overview: The open house will begin with a brief(15-minute) update on the CEAP process and overview of the open house format and objectives.There will be two informational stations and six focus area-specific stations.The focus area-specific will describe the focus area, overview climate action goals, and list potential strategies and actions (along with short descriptions and/or considerations for each). Attendees will be given 25 dots (five of each color) and $1,000 in play money at the registration table. They will then walk among the various stations and vote on their highest and lowest priority strategies/actions for each focus area. With the dots,they will vote on the top strategies/actions that should absolutely be a part of the plan, as well as two strategies/actions that could be eliminated from the plan if needed. With the fake money,they will distribute their dollars towards those strategies that they would most likely want to fund by placing them into designated boxes, in the proportion of funding that they see fit. Each station will also have comment cards and focus area handouts that attendees can write on to provide comments, as well as 1-2 iPads with online surveys that also allow attendees to provide comments, including ideas for new actions. Stations could also ask other questions specific to the focus area, strategy, or actions, as identified by the ad-hoc committee. Logistics: • 1:00 pm: Cascadia,Jeff, and City meet with venue staff • 2:30 pm: Other staff/ad-hoc committee members arrive • 2:45 pm: Consultants, City staff, and ad-hoc committee greet attendees, be available for questions at their assigned stations • 3:15 pm: Presentation—Jeff welcome, Rich—few words,Jeff—open house overview • 3:30 pm: Consultants, City staff, and ad-hoc committee back to assigned stations • 5:00 pm: Pack up Staffing: Name Affiliation Station Adam Hanks City of Ashland 1 Diana Shiplet City of Ashland Comment station 1 Name Affiliation Station Rich Rosenthal City Council 5 Isaac Bevers Ad-hoc Committee Member 8 Claudia Alick Ad-hoc Committee Member 7 Roxanne Biegel-Coryell Ad-hoc Committee Member 6 Louise Shawkat Ad-hoc Committee Member 7 Greg Jones Ad-hoc Committee Member 8 Jim Hartman Ad-hoc Committee Member 4 Marni Koopman Ad-hoc Committee Member 2 James McGinnis Ad-hoc Committee Member 4 Bryan Sohl Ad-hoc Committee Member 5 Stuart Green Ad-hoc Committee Member 5 Cindy Bernard Ad-hoc Committee Member 6 Andrea Martin Consultant team (Cascadia) 7 Jeff Golden Consultant team Welcome table Note: Ideally we would like to have 1-2 project team members at each station. Presentation Outline: • Jeff—Welcome (MC) • Rich (3-5 min): Update on CEAP process; importance of developing a strategic plan based on top priorities and key strategic initiatives • Jeff(3 min): Overview of Open House o 8 Stations o Orientation of each station o Next steps: ■ What committee will be working on until the next open house ■ How the public can stay involved o (Take questions on open house, but content questions can be directed to stations/comment area) Layout Attendees will trickle in informally until 3:00pm,when the program begins. Attendees will be asked to sign in upon arrival and will receive their voting packet. Project team members will be available for small group conversations at stations, along with display boards. Station One —Ashland's Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Description, Purpose and Need • Community members will review the modeled emissions forecast for Ashland and explore potential emissions reduction goals. • Attendees will be asked which emissions reductions goal they would like to see the City adapt for the plan (three choices: 1) 75-80% reduction by 2050; 2) carbon neutral sector emissions by 2047; and 3) science-based emission reduction) Visual Display Boards Needed (4) • Emissions forecast summary • Emissions reduction goal choices (including description, pros, cons, and other considerations) • Goal voting board (dot voting exercise) 2 How to gather community input • Dot exercise Staffed by: • Adam Hanks Station Two —Ashland's Climate Vulnerability Description and Purpose • Community members will review key findings from Ashland vulnerability assessment workshops and provide input on which resources, systems, or populations should be prioritized. Visual Display Boards Needed (3) • Vulnerability assessment findings summary • What are the most important resources,systems,or populations for the City to pay attention to in preparing for climate change and why? How to gather community input • Open response on board (post-its) Staffed by: 9 Marni Koopman Stations Three to Eight—CEAP Focus Areas Station# Focus Area 3 Cross-cutting strategies 4 Buildings and Energy 5 Urban Form, Land Use,and Transportation 6 Consumption and Materials Management 7 Health and Social Systems 8 Natural Systems Description and Purpose • Attendees will be asked to review and provide feedback proposed goals,strategies, and actions related to each focus area. • Feedback will be both open-ended comments/considerations and voting exercise through dots and play money. Visual Display Boards Needed (3x6=18) • Overview of why it's important, what the City is already doing,goals • Two strategy/action list boards (1-3 strategies per board)with room for dot voting • Print-out of list to allow attendees to write considerations/comments/edits directly Other Materials: • Funding boxes for each strategy(where attendees will insert money) • iPads to complete survey 3 • Public comment cards and boxes • Focus area handouts How to gather community input • Online survey(different surveys for each section, and one combined survey) • Comment cards • Handout comments • Dot voting exercise • Money funding exercise Staffed by: • Buildings and Energy:Jim H, Adam,James • Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation: Bryan, Rich, Stu • Consumption and Materials Management: Roxane, Cindy • Health/Social Systems: Claudia, Louise • Natural Systems: Greg, Isaac Other Tables • Welcome table with sign-in sheet, blank name tags, handouts • Comment table for surveys and comment cards • Table with refreshments Materials/Assets—Ashland staff will bring unless otherwise marked. For Cascadia to bring: • Project Team name tags(logo, name,title) • Two laptops for station 5 (City will also bring some, if possible) • 10 sign-in sheets (double sided) • Door signage (on all doors, name and logo) • 8 iPads for surveys • 100 anonymous comment cards For City to print beforehand and bring(Cascadia will provide to City by EOB 9/19): • Signage for each station (numbers for stations) • 3 Open House signs (Cascadia will create multiple arrow directions and Adam will print what's needed) • —27 display boards • 150 Open House flyers (map of stations and brief descriptor of each station) For City to bring: • —25 easels (can be mix of table and standing) • 1 welcome/sign-in table • 4 comment station tables • 200 chairs • 20 pens for comment card area • 10 Sharpie markers per station (total = 50) • 150 Blank name tags(for attendees) 4 • Refreshments • Cameras for documentation (City will have designated colleague for taking photos) • Projector and laptop cords • Laptop with presentation • Table cloth (1 per station; ) • Long extension cords • Tape • Box(es)to receive anonymous comment cards • 2 iPads for surveys Work back plan Date Action Who 8/4 Send Adam initial open house meeting plan Cascadia 8/11 Revise open house plan Cascadia/City 8/18 Draft flyer; draft email announcement Cascadia 8/30-9/9 Final flyer, distribute flyers/post "save the date" Cascadia/City/committee on local listserves 9/9 Finalize open house plan Cascadia 8/11-9/12 Draft visuals for open house Cascadia 9/14 Receive comments on visuals City 9/19 Finalize visuals for printing Cascadia/City 9/12-9/16 Send press release to newspapers; put up flyers City/ad-hoc committee 9/18-9/25 Send reminder"save the date" emails Ad-hoc committee 9/25 Open house All 5 I wu We wait W ieii�re? SOU IIIIIII IIIIIII IIIIIII IIIIIIIII III „��,,, Ill�,nnrr✓%/�j'!„aFr/'(rl,,,+%L„,,,���u���U,,,/rr0 ill Gm%�/�F�0�rr%'��rrr Uiniaiiiirl I 1250 Siiiiislkiiiiiyou 311vd �I focatio�v J1�:'............... , /,����,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,, III ,� �»„»»�„�r����������������rrr��r,„�����„r������„���„ �I� n������,mumu�mvuu�m�m�ur»llllrr�ll�/r7l%�U/�Ul/G7////�I/////////////////////�((Gf1/lll///�/////lllllllllllllllllllll�llllllllllllll��l//�iila�///ll�lllllll� /ia//9/�%��//ilii r1Jll / Septern .3er 2 5 December 7 3:00u=5:00pm 5:30m7:,30prn ��IIUIIIIIIUI11111J �11(lV ''�JJ I IIIIIIIIII48iffi �rrIJ IIIIIIf»f»11111J,IIIIIIII�I48iffi rf�l`f'filra���� rJrllililiUlJl�l�jfrlf el 1i�rN1'l4dd»1 I�f�r ����� a 1111y�1DUl l �II�I II� I Explore potential strategies to Review the draft Climate am�w: r + in change address climate g and Energy Action Plan a n d I Ashland, and tell us which are let us know what you think. most important to you. �I IIIIIIIII 3), l I I rr ,ar Ilou r l r r, r, I(IIII dfff IIII IIIII f �((rl III� IIII IIIII dN III III IIII q��pe���1� �. Gf» r1U ,»r � J � 1 ID U r D1 fr»J I/N1 1 P rr / 11r, (IFlrf p I II 1 �J r, J), J, J (� I�I ( I rk I(IIIIIII r ,l„ �rl �� t 1Ir /� � rt �� � /I �p /I II p�// j��il+ IIIII I ��Illlllllll�ff� I/ �i IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ��J, I(,,,,,,,»7111111I/,,,,,,,»1G11»II»IIJ� f� �, 81 I� r�l�� � lU r�P .I , I, r,r1 ,/ � I I � I rJ J )/1���, ��� �/,� z� �I� �I�J r l��� Irl � I II11,IIIIIIIII a1��rrrta IIIIIII IIIII 1JJ����JJJl1 �JJ��»����Ili u»»»»��il� b1»�,;r�r�r Ilu»»,1»�� lUl»»r»,», IoluuulN mmlmrUfl Ur I I The City of Ashland is hosting a series of open houses to help guide direction of the City's first ever Climate and Energy Action Plan, and we need your help. Please join us at the second open house to tell us which climate and energy strategies and actions you think the City should take. You will have a chance to vote on your top- priority actions and discuss them with the Mayor-appointed planning committee and others in our community. il For more information about this event or to learn about other ways to provide input, go to www.Ashland.or.us/climateplan or contact Adam Hanks at 541-552-2046 or adam.hanks@ashIand.or.us. CITY Of ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, _..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,. miaimmiaorrrrrrruuimimiinmaaia/////////lllllllmmmimiiim..... //ll.................//////// nnm»»»»»mv vimama aiiaiiii ran iiimiiiiamraaaamiiaoiiaioniao ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, «rii rii . ummr�rrmrramr rrr CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY IN ASH LAND AND THE ROGUE VALLEY AUGUST 2016 Executive Summary Climate change is already impacting the Rogue Valley. Residents and businesses of the area are feeling the impacts of more heat waves, lower snowpack, more smoke in the summer, and warmer rivers with water quality problems from algae and bacteria. We assessed the different populations and resources of the Rogue Valley to determine where our communities are most vulnerable to climate impacts. Our process included a review of'climate model projections specific to our area, combined with an expert elicitation process,to,determine how climate impacts might affect the people and resources throughout the Rogue 1/alley, but also specific to Ashland, in support of the City's Climate and Energy Action Planning (CEAP,) ,process. We found that the most vulnerable natural resources include: • High elevation plants and wildlife • Sensitive species such as Brewer spruce, Northern Spotted Owl, and wolverine. • Intermittent springs and wetlands, • Anadromous fish, amphibian, and-migratory bird populations • Intact ecosystems and overall biod�iversity • Habitat connectivity needed for species to shift ranges with4arming climate The most vulnerable socioeconomlic populations,and resources include: • Elders, who are sensitive to heat, and especially low-income without family nearby • Outdoor workers and seasonal workers, most of whom are also low income • Seasonal and servi e1ndustry workers (forest, ski area, restaurant, hotel, etc.) • Homeless populations,,people lacking in transportation options • Hydropower supply • Low income populations, including Latino/a and families/single parents with young children • People with existing respiratory and heart conditions or mental illness • Manufacturing, retail, and service sector businesses • Roads and ether infrastructure in valley bottoms and along rivers • Health care,providers and emergency response staff • Tourism and recreational based businesses, including the ski area and river rafting • Water resources, especially water quality issues for TID Of note were the exacerbating factors of income level, environmental degradation, and development pressure for housing and renewable energy as stressors to numerous populations and resources. For instance, families with young children, seasonal workers, and elders were all more vulnerable to climate change if they were also low income, because of the loss of adaptive capacity related to having few resources with which to make changes. This indicates GIIEOS INSTITUTE IIIIIII UIfffj(jj(j(MMMUI uuuuuuuuuu°°°°°u�° __. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu that addressing income/wealth inequality could increase overall community resilience to climate change. Similarly, reducing stressors to natural systems, such as water use, land use, and fragmentation of natural areas, could create more natural systems resilience, which in turn supports quality of life, recreation and tourism in the region. The climate change variables of greatest concern included the increase in severity and frequency of extreme heat and heat waves (89 more days per year of extreme temperatures, which could be 12°F hotter), the increased potential for large storms and flooding (large downpours 1.3" larger), loss of snowpack (-86%) and the associated loss of water storage in winter, declines in water quality due to warmer temperaturesan'd lower flow, and overall change in climate conditions leading to disruptions in native vegetation and wildlife. Many of the most severe impacts can be prevented by aggressively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The City of Ashland is currently creating a Climate and Energy Action Plan to set emissions targets over time. The City of Talent is cre -ating a clean energy plan to shift away from fossil fuel sources and towards local and renewable.energy. The City of Medford i ':working to update its emergency response plan with climate change,model output. Other Southern Oregon communities will also need to take action to reduce emissions and protect our communities and the resources we rely on from increasingly severe impact's. ,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. IITSTTTTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Introduction The Rogue Valley in Southern Oregon has experienced changes in temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in the last few decades. As climate change accelerates, we can expect more days of extreme heat, fewer freezing nights, and more frequent periods of drought than there have been historically. Many of the most severe impacts, however, can be avoided if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, creating a more positive future for residents of the Rogue Valley and around the globe. The City of Ashland is working on a Climate and Energy Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout the community. Another Rogue Valley community, Talent, is creating a plan for shifting to clean energy. Communities throughout the nation are taking action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in efforts to prevent w 'rming more than 1.5 - 2° C (2.7-3.6° F), which has been recognized by the international community as the a,mandatory level to prevent catastrophic warming. In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, however, communities need lo respond to the changes already being felt and plan for those that'are still to''come, regardless of our emissions reductions. Because greenhouse gases can remain, in the atmosphere for decades, we will continue to experience climate change impacts for decade ,,and even centuries, to come. While greenhouse gases are measured globally, climate change impacts are locally specific. Each community feels climate change in a different way, depending on historic conditions and locally-specific climatic conditions and patterns of change. As,these local impacts and changes worsen over time, we will need to prepare and protect our most vulnerable resources and populations from the',impacts. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Determining which resources and populations are most vulnerable to ongoing and future impacts ofclimate change is the first step in developing effective strategies and sound solutions. We held a series of workshops on climate change vulnerability in Ashland, Oregon. These workshops included experts in a variety of fields and topics. The workshops were intended to share knowledge on the science and future trends associated with climate change, as well as expected impacts to important sectors of our communities. While the workshops'wore, held in Ashland in support of Ashland's Climate and Energy Action Planning process, we invited experts from throughout the Rogue Valley to look at regional vulnerabilities and trends as well. Because climate change is an all-encompassing trend with both local and regional solutions, it is vital that we work together and develop a better understanding of cross-jurisdictional impacts as well as opportunities. GEOS // ,,�„ aaaaaaaaaai�OO�1Uuuf��llllu�,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. IITSTTTTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrrrra..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Climate ���� ���� iiiii iiiii is a function of three variables: • Exposure - what changes the resource or population is expected to be exposed to • Sensitivity- what the impacts are likely to be • Adaptive capacity - what actions or resources are available to reduce the impacts A vulnerability assessment, such as this one, determines the contributions of each of these variables to each of the target resources and populations, in order to help to prioritize and direct potential solutions. August onthiy Mead Temperature in 1 EXP URE— Ex osure is the s ecific ,/ Degr���Fahrenheft ////' impact or trend that is expected from 3;F1w Ro9u Basin 0 INSTITUTE j19.E-d2.? '1.72 S climate change. Different resources and r =' • .�� tT ll�f 8 �79-2 Pop u l a t i o n s will be exposed to different � /� '� r ��„ "6"� �' "02.1 �n �.��.� components of climate change which can Jr,.�, r! r� be assessed using global climate models and lookingat recent trends and data. It is �� � �/�� 9 awl IIIIJIj; important to get information on exposure from reputable scientific institutions and p / knowledgeable scientists with an understanding just gof not climate change, . but also the potential impacts of climate !, ;, p p / r i change to our natural systems that communities depend on. Figure 1. Climate model output, such as that shown For example, Mt. Ashland Ski Area's' here, can be used to investigate the level of exposure to climate than e im acts is high, exposure of specific regions to climate impacts.This ex p p g ' downscaled climate model output shows historic because snowpack is expected to decline and J ro'ected future Au ust tem erature across the p g p 70-80% by the 208 's, even if,we,reduce Rogue Basin using three different climate models emissions. Exposure of,Mt. Ashland's ski CSIRO, HADCM, and MIROC and two future area to sea level rise impacts, however'," is timeframes (2035-45 and 2075-85). All three models relatively"low due to elevation and distance agree on future warming, but some show faster from the coast. warming than others. 2. SENSITIVITY—Some resources and populations are more sensitive to changes than others, meaning that the experience a larger or more severe response to those changes. For example, Infants and elders are more sensitive to severe heat because they are less able to regulate their body temperature. 3. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY— People can respond to climate impacts in a variety of ways. There are many resources and behaviors available to us already for responding to impacts, providing some adaptive capacity. For instance, people who can afford air conditioning have higher adaptive capacity during both heat waves and when smoke from wildfires makes outdoor air unhealthy than those without air conditioning or those working and/or living outdoors. INSTITUTE r ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,///////,rrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ' ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu In addition to each of the 3 variables associated with climate change vulnerability, we assessed the following variables: E °°°°R °°°° —Are the impacts already occurring? Based on climate model projections and considering the level of uncertainty associated with those projections, are the impacts expected to occur in the near, mid- or long-term? STRESSORS—What are the current stressors that are affecting the target resource or population? Identifying current stressors provides valuable information for where to find solutions. Many stressors are exacerbated by climate change, such as ozone being exacerbated by heat, thereby affecting air quality and human health. By rducin the stressors, we can increase overall resilience of the target as climate change worsens an"d accelerates. SECONDARY 's—Secondary impacts are,im"pacts created from actions that we take in response to climate change, such as spraying more pesticides in response to warming waters and more mosquito-borne disease. In many cases, the secondary impacts will be more serious than climate change itself. SOLUTIONS—The focus of this effort was on identifying local vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities will then inform the CEAP'a'nd other planning processes to develop solutions. The experts in the workshops, however, had n,u'merous i'dea's,for sound'solutions to climate impacts. Those are included in this report, but are not compr h'ensive across all sectors and topics. Solutions included ways to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions (called "mitigation") as well as ways to protect people and resources from ongoing and worsening impacts (called "adaptation"). Both approaches are needed. ^O�NI /r j / j n, Workshop participants discussing climate '° impacts with group facilitator, Eric Dittmer GIIEOS INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 ,,,,,,,,r rrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrr,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,rrrrr,,,,,,,,, mrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnnnnmmrrrmrraamrvarrmmuur////%//////////iiimmnm nnnllll!!!!!!!!!!!(,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,, rrrrrriiiiimrrrmvmrrmmmmimiromrm000r ���°" araprrrrnaim�ssu�»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rr ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, /lllllll111/////aaimrrrmnroiiimranna0/// ,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,, //////moiiiuuaarooiiianmi rrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrraimnnoiiiiiirrmr riiavvorrrurmrrrmoomn000r Resu Its S, .................. Numerous studies have detailed these impacts for our region H� ,,, ;Tre ,rrrrr (TRIG and Geos Institute 2008• Southern Oregon Forest F Restoration Collaborative 2013. Oregon Climate Change g g r��ee 0 r rrrr�� 9 rrr Research Institute 2016). This overview pulls from those reports p p and others to p �rovide the latest information on historical k. changes in climate, future projections, and expected impacts. HISTORIC TRENDS—The average temperature in Ashland has increased b 2.5 F over the last century. is about 1 F more, Y Y warming than theaverage for the Pacific Northwest fort th e, ,� rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ,, rrr,r r , r r, rrr , / rrr,,,,,,,,,, ;1� „r; i rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr;;;;r r r r 2016). same time period (OCCRIp ss„ "--,rrrrrrrr ssssssssssssssssss ..., Average precipitation has decreased slightly in Ashland, although this is not a significant decline and is overshadowed by year-to-year variation (OCCRI 2016). f Among 13 monitoring stations in the Rogue Basin, 12 have recorded declines in snowpack, ranging from 3-60% (avg. _ 26.8%). Averaged over all 13 stations, a decline in 17% was f observed from 1960-2014 (calculated from OCCRI 201 . / Wildfire season lengthened by 28 days (averaging 1 day/yr.) from 1984 2011. The number of large wildfires has increased b 0.6 per year (Denniso'n-et al. 2014).p Y i PROJECTED FUTURE TREND - Iobal Climate Models GCMs r are use t model the Earths climate systems and provide d o e a y insights into potential future chan : Uncertaint in model g p g Y output comes from an incomplete undersstanding of those systems and, more importantly, how people will respond to the need to red u e reenhouse as emissions. Thus there is a range c g g g of potential outcomes dependent on which models are used and whether or not the international corm'unity takes action on climate change. In analyses by OCCRI (2016), projections based on continued higher emissions (RCP 8.5) were compared to those based on lower emissions (RCP 4.5), to assess the how much climate change impact can be avoided by taking action to substantially reduce emissions (Table 1). ��� r„%/������iiaaaaaaaoaai�OO��IUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIf11111111111111111J���INSTITUTE ����1�I���NIIIIIII41�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. ������������������✓ ������iNNNNN������N��111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU ������� ����������� DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ' ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� 'Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu In general, all of the models predict warming, Table 1. Comparison of climate values in the 2080s, but some predict faster warming than others. if we substantially lower emissions (RCP 4.5) or Similarly, all models predict sea level rise, but continue with business as usual (RCP 8.5) (adapted some are showing much faster sea level rise from OCCRI 2016). than others. Most models agree o n more °1 °°II�IIIIIII g I� IIIIII IIIIIIV III w intense storms wetter winters drier IIIIIIIII III II I I IIIIIIIIIIII summers lower snow a c k and more ��� ����iiiiiiii iillliiiiiiii p tl� frequent extreme heat and wildfire. +7°F +120F ���IIIIIIIIIIIilllllll lilll Changes in precipitation are likely, but an y +39 days/yr. +89 da sv r. llullllllllill luau luiuu °°°° one area those changes are highly uncertain. IIIIIIV IIIIII IIII IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIlllllllllllllllllllllllllllll IIIIIII Southern Oregon is especially uncertain, as +0.8 inches +1.3 inches IIIIIIIIIIII 11111II 11111111 V 111111 1111110 11111111 areas further north are expected to become IIIL ; wetter, on average, and those further south -71% -86% are expected to become drier, according to many models. With higher temperatures, however, soils are expected to be drier. Thus, drought becorn more likely and vegetation will change, even with moderate increases in precipitation. ChUmate Changelner 11'1t'1 s —We held five workshops covering the following topics: Equity and Disadvantaged Populations, Natural Systems, Health and Emergency Response, Business and Agriculture, and Infrastructure. Each workshop was attended by invited experts within the topic area. These experts first became familiar with the climate science and projections. Then they were asked to consider how target resources and populations would be affected. We built upon previous work (TRIG and Gees Institute 2008 and Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative 2013) fora more comprehensive assessment. The vulnerabilities were discussed and documented during the workshops using large matrices ........ written on flip charts hanging on the conference room walls. After the notes were transcribed, we ranked the vulnerabilities based:can Adaptive Capacity (high, medium, or low) and Exposure/Sensitivity combined (high, medium, low) in order to display them in the matrix in Figures 2 and 3. �r,1J(��ir�' ��y/Fllr�" f�%5%, ,�. �d�i 1��/r,,; //I��///% �� � � /J ✓J " '" ���/�����i���ll%(���,�qw r,,✓/%/���/�. ,,,)N(,I I�n�r /����� ,.,.. ",a,,,, ,,,� /!l///�/l/l�,wYW 111VNJk9 Workshop participants discussing climate impacts with group facilitator, Leslie Becknell- Marx INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 Figure 2. Natural systems vulnerabilities in Ashland and the Rogue Valley. SENSITIVITY AND EXPOSURE High Medium Low ... µ b pkyw•.. �p uum IIIII Pu„rrN•..... I 6 3 U Q a ud-elevation coniferous forests to Generalist species such as W �� > ���� �V��°" n° suer from disease, pests,and overall raccoons, black bears, black- change.Wildfire expected to increase, tailed deer,American Robins, abut is also considered an important and others expected to be more 0 ecological process for maintaining forest able to adapt to changing a health and diversity. conditions. Edge species and those that live in fragmented'Mid-elevation coniferous forests at risk n a� from additional stress and loss of moist disturbed,or early successional - micro-climate from large-scale thinning, habitat also expected to persist. also pressure from increasing biomass energy production. j Oak woodlands,grasslands at risk from _ overall change and stressors such as agriculture,development and renewable energy. Chaparral,grasslands,and shrublands Invasive and non-native species s could increase as coniferous forests benefit from declines in native °ip contract while also being at risk from species,warmer water and air. = development at lower elevations. INSTITUTE �%991%9%IIIIIIIIII��� - DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 Figure 3. Socioeconomic vulnerabilities in Ashland and the Rogue Valley. SENSITIVITY AND EXPOSURE High Medium Low Outl845bW WWbWIt�M,eltl@WS,�ntIIIICeW"' """"' Homeless residents,especially the long- Local reservoirs exposed income populmCl�ms w'llllbe term homeless are oken used to extreme to more severe storms vullYi,�YS61e tlosevereheaY. ':'. conditions.However,once conditions and larger precipitation �IWIpWs,especially disablpollmhtlllYWN' become too extreme,they have I the events. Reeder reservoir irrce�me irrdivltll��l5�'A6fie�[etlllby -- — adaptive capaaty.Most at nsk from water 'swell maintained and s euene l4�'�t'.S'iXn"tl'ke;and stlafms _,.. quality and heat. has been rated for a M�myafe N2Y2ht72�q"from rtelatlfU�S'BW In��� People without cars vulnerable during 10,000 year storm. rurslareas. ., .....;;;;, wildfire,severe smrms and natural North Emigrant reservoir disasters. has had issues with Peopl'N Wtt'A�mem�1111115A55 �dtl turbid water from esp������+PLC'@Pa�YS,'k5�y���l�f� �w income residents,especially young storms,expected to suscep��q���p�ry�p�;��{kAIX��4dC�d�dlllllll children at risk from e�etreme heat,smoke, increase and worsen. maaural dirsasCpxs. - - and increased vector and food-borne Saa5bna11�Y�dIIkE1'Wfice lmlus[ry - disease. Higher water and electricity costs worWLh:.att rf�k kotrr�adllm -- and need for air cond t Doing could be �� p'�"�, �,.� significant burden. dlenaYC Ghan6e YI�S'dM70�FeGN�[heu�[mkup-; oP)qbS W4f phe�'G'a�Y.This tan pµ5�llllllllllll Manufacturing,retail,and service sectors RdRARII7Cf�paverCy antlyw make. :: likely to experience higher fuel and Thzm lti"alb"�Irewhere 4nr more sYa�til&. '. transportation costs,heat and storm emp�p�/YYf�n4 ""'. related disruptions. a ~ -Wkld�1'����������� Roads bordering rivers and streams,and in HlYdropRMfMlf AdM f7�,FQANI�I�SS� adwe as YEtlWiC&fYII�NowpacN' IN5'S bfiuuuuuuwul valley bottoms,as well as unstable slopes Q stlnearm flINYW,dFuugh�Wi6ndIl�Wodill�g C; ;i at risk from ncreased frequency o(large W AIBA'.WIId�It2A�itlllfieatt Co ai�ett ':':'. storms. > nramcl'�m nu lroeYeas2dlltlkhnamtllllin���'��������� a soimrrtaer willll'6YrA55:5yYBems aflNime:........ owtnen snrea�m�31lY�1"f�i sn ��. ,. a People with asthma,respiratory and Human health at risk from smoke,vector SOU students highly heart disease impacted by smoke and and water-borne disease,and increased mobile,connected.Most ozone. use of pesticides due to mosquito spraying affected from poor air Low income populations,and and agricultural pests. quality during fall sports, especially Latino/a populations,at Emergency response and evacuation to severe heat without air E risk from heat,smoke,and larger become more difficult and frequent due to conditioning in late storms.Also loss of reliable increase in natural disasters and closure of summer,and flooding vevacuation routes during storms. More as dated with severe � funding will be needed. sto�ms. Health care providers,emergency response staff at increased risk with Agricultural production expected to merextreme events,dealing with decline with less reliable seasonality,more gencies while also worried about disease,and more uncertainty in harvest their own families. dates and length of seasons. Raking and other river-related Local agriculture will become stressed from recreation industries impacted by pests,disease,drought,greater water quality,low flow,aid smoke. competition for water and land,and lower Solar panels affected by smoke— Productivity from climate change. reduces production 6y up to 30Y. iNsrirvrr. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu ///////f///////// // ///////���//�////////��///� Specifically,wine grapes expected to have more disease and shifts in the types of grapes. Roads buildings, J brid es and real estate eat risk from wildfires floods and heat i impacts.With increased temperatures and smoke, biking and walking will become •- i %:,rFEE hazardous, making more people rely on vehicles. Culverts and road crossings often not built to high enough flood standards. FS Municipal water supply expected to see p pp Y V greater demand and lower supply due to Q a / higher temperatures and reduced Q snow pack.Cost of water could increase. V � p W Increase in algal outbreaks expected. > f Wildfire can cause water quality problems. a Not enough redundancy of supply. Q 0 Q Energy infrastructure at risk from heat (affects distribution), lower and less predictable stream flow,storms, and increase in summer demand with higher temps. General population at increased risk Health care providers,emergency for disease outbreaks, but we have a response staff at increased risk with more Tier II hospital ready to deal with extreme events,dealing with emergencies outbreaks of new diseases. while also worried about their own Fire fighters at increased risk from families. Could cause stress and mental g fire as more homes are at risk and health issues, fires become more frequent. Landscaping(SOU, parks, homes, etc.) .— Local creeks already affected by E. exposed to changing conditions,water = r coli and algae, likely to get worse, but restrictions,extreme temperatures. Over management options exist to reduce time,trees could die and new types of impacts. trees and plants will need to be planted. Drought resistant and fire resistant plants Stormwater infrastructure at risk not always compatible.SOU's irrigation from larger storms. systems out-of-date. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Natural Systems Natural systems are on the front line with climate change. Natural systems support biodiversity and functioning ecosystems. Natural systems also provide people with clean water, air, recreational and spiritual opportunities, and a variety of other services. Because our communities in Southern Oregon are highly dependent on natural systems for the local economy (tourism, forestry, agriculture, water) and our way of life (recreation, rural housing, natural beauty), the impacts of climate change on natural systems will have direct impacts on all other sectors considered. The natural systems workshops participants identified numerous potential vulnerabilities of natural systems to climate change impacts. These stemmed from"overall changes in temperature and precipitation, greater storm intensity with erosion and sedimentation, more extreme heat events, higher incidence of wildfire, substantial declines in s`nowpack, warmer river and stream temperatures, and changes to species distributions. CONUI�EROUSF — Forests in Southern Oregon are likely to be affected by changes to temperature and precipitation, increases in CO2, changes in wildfire patterns and declines in snowpack. At lower elevations, conifers could be replaced by hardwoods. North facing slopes are expected to act as refuges for endemic species that require a slightly cooler microclimate. The high topographic complexity of the region and relatively mild climate, which allowed for biodiversity refuges during times of glaciation, could act in a similar manner as climate change accelerates. Some species that could be most sensitive to climate impacts include Brewer Spruce, Northern Spotted Owl, and Fisher Current stressors from land use and resource extraction are likely to be exacerbated by climate,,change. Wolverine, which occur at higher elevations, could be impacted by declines in snowpack. Wildfire is,a natural occurrence and vital part of r forest"health in Southern"Oregon forests. Mature coniferous forests, with extensive canopy cover ; and complex understory, maintain moist :r microclimate that reduce the incidence of wildfire. The most effective way to increase forest resilience may be to restore mature forest structure. Because many native forest species are highly adapted to wildfire, wildfire is seen as a benefit, not a threat to ecosystem health. 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Photo by Kevin Schafer. forests of Southern Oregon include mining, logging, biomass harvest for energy production, fire suppression activities like mechanical thinning, and, at lower elevations, clearing for development of homes and vineyards. Invasive species and forest pests and diseases also stress coniferous forests. Climate change is expected to exacerbate many of these stressors. By reducing stressors to forest systems, they will become more resilient in the face of accelerating climate change. Adaptive Capacity— North facing slopes could function as im'prtant refuges that allow biodiversity to persist, if protected. Federal lands (USFS and BLM) have greater adaptive capacity than private lands because of the potential for increased protection and conservation-based management. E1 i LANDS i° L ') —Similar to coniferous forests oak woodlands an fr grasslands are expected to be impacted f f / f by g p changes to temperature and aai r r�rr�� Baia �rrrrrrrrr� ....r rr r r / / r r „r�rrrrrrr� /���/ rirrrrr r + , rr precipitation, as well as increases in CO2 and changes in wildfire patterns. Oak ! woodlands may displace conifers at ' r. a higher elevations. Native grasslands are likely to increasingly lose,ground to invasive and non-native species, a COz' and temperature/precipitatio,n change give non,native species a competitive edge. �rr,�� �aruar�ti Stresors—Current stressors to oak woodlands and grasslands include wildfire suppression, which precludes regeneration, and agriculture and housing development. Oak woodlands already are threatened by Sudden Oak Death, and could be prone to more diseases and p,ersts as climate change progresses. Adaptive Capacity— Protected and intact grasslands and oak woodlands have higher adaptive capacity than fragmented areas. rAc""'rECOSYS"""U"'"E1�)ROVI UVI"""I — Intact ecosystems are vital to maintaining biodiversity and allowing species to shift and adapt over time. As climate change progresses, intact ecosystems and connected natural areas will become even more vital for the movement of species of plants and wildlife to new areas. Intact ecosystems are expected to be impacted by climate change through the loss of keystone species (from changes in temperature and INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu precipitation) and/or vital ecosystems function. Regional planning for connectivity and more focus on conservation of natural areas could enhance ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. Stressors- Lower elevation ecosystems, such as oak woodlands and native grasslands, are especially at risk from development for homes and agriculture (wine grapes, marijuana, etc.). Continued encroachment of housing into the forest interface threatens coniferous forests, as does fire suppression, logging, mining, and biomass for energy. -Greater storm intensity, lower streamflow, and warmer temperatures all threaten aquatic and riparian ecosystems and species. In addition, snow pack declines can p p r greatly change the timing of streamflow, with %l impacts to spawning, migration, and food i '^ availability for salmonids. Warmer waters can cause increases in bacteria and disease, and ,w ' decreased dissolved oxygen, which leads to fish kills. Salmonids, amphibians, , macroinvertebrates, intermittent springs, wetlands, and vernal pools are all at risk from drought a ,well. Stressors- Many intermitte'nt springs, vernal pools, and wetlands are already being destroyed or turned into year-round ponds,that support invasive species such as bull frogs. Salmonids'are:affected by dams and other barriers that block passage to spawning areas and cooler, higher water. Salmonids are'also affected by non-natural flow, such as that in Bear Creek in the summer. Many amphibians already suffer from chitrid fungus and -are likely to have more disease and drought impacts r with climate change. Grazing can destroy riparian al vegetation and meadows, thereby leading to reduced ability to hold water and more flooding during extreme storms. Additional target communities to assess include mesic Y�. dependent systems, endemic species, pollinators, bats, decomposers (fungi), restoration efforts, and others. Workshop participants were not tasked with developing solutions as part of the vulnerability assessment, yet many were suggested. Some t iii tiii' L riONS iiii iii l ,,,, INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU��������� ����������� DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu • Place new renewable energy development and other development on already degraded and fragmented lands. • Restore riparian systems, reduce invasive species and increase native species. • Rehydrate the watershed by creating beaver-like structures and/or introducing beavers. • Decommission roads to reduce sedimentation in streams during large storms. • Enforce the City's riparian ordinance. Retain dead trees for fish and wildlife. • Trim the vegetation on Neil Creek near the airport to ensure a low canopy cover for shade, while also meeting airport requirements. • Restore fish passage at Granite Street Dam to allow native migratory fish to use Ashland Creek up to Reeder where there is cold water habitat for winter steelhead. • Encourage and mandate planting of native trees and shrubs, especially in new development. r more recommended SOW n i`i MI INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Equity and Disadvantaged Populations Climate change has the greatest impacts on those who not only have the least ability to protect themselves, but also those who have contributed the least to the problem itself. Disadvantaged populations include low income residents, people of color, people with disabilities, non-English speakers, homeless residents, and others who have had little input into our society's planning processes. Similar to natural systems, disadvantaged populations are often on the front line when it comes to climate change. Outdoor workers and low income workers, for example, are exposed to the full impacts of severe heat and smoke from wildfire, with little adaptive capacity. Historically, many societal norms and procedures have created preferential opportunities based on race, gender, sexual orientation, and other factors. Unfortunately, many of these systems are still in place. As our awareness increases and we work to dismantle discriminatory practices and systems, climate change threatens to add additional stressors that exacerbate inequities. The equity and disadvantaged populations workshop participants identified numerous potential vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. ELDERS AND DISABL — Extreme heat, larger and more destructive storms (with flooding), and increasing levels of smoke are all expected to have health and safety impacts to elders and disabled adults. Many elders and disabled adults have compromised health, which can be exacerbated by climate impacts. Mobility may be limited, making it difficult to escape unsafe or unhealthy conditions. When cognitive"abilities are compromised, elders and disabled adults may have trouble communicating discomfort or understanding emergency procedures. They are often reliant on preparedness of their caregivers or facilities, which may or may not be well prepared for extreme conditions. Finally, many elders and disabled adults have fixed incomes that can limit their options for air conditioning, transportation, and siting in flood zones. Stresors— Existing stressors include floodr risk to many Tower income homes, especially trailer parks situated in flood prone areas. Low income is also a stressor. r T, �t Adaptive Capacity- Medical facilities, case managers, assisted living, churches, and g g, other community services that are routinely provided for elders and disabled adults can Oki ,�y r r also act as support and communication f hubs during extreme events. A FEMA representative speaks with a homeowner after disaster. Photo from Wikimedia Commons. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu MEN""'I"" I EXI"""U"'" NI —Similar to elders and disabled adults, people suffering from mental health issues and especially veterans, can be hypersensitive to extreme and/or unexpected events, including severe heat, smoke, and extreme precipitation that leads to flooding. L E U° — Low income populations are also expected to be at risk from extreme events, including heat, storms and flooding, and smoke. Latino/a populations are especially at risk. Many low income populations are less likely to prepare for emergencies or extreme events, and don't have information about where to go or how to get help. Stressors— Low income residents, and specifically Latino/a Iowa income residents, have fewer resources available during extreme events. They oftenhave little or no access to affordable healthcare. Language barriers can also prevent peop'le,from getting the help and resources that are available, or understanding the risk. Negative experiences with law enforcement or other forms of authority create situations of distrust-and a lack of support for people of color. People with a criminal record may have a harder time getting support services, access to shelters,jobs, and housing. Mental health and abuse issues, while prevalent in all income levels, can become exacerbated by climate change imIpacts because low income populations are already pushed to,the edge. Many low income families do not have insurance, and can lose everything,during an extreme event. Adaptive Capacity—Overall, low income populations have little adaptive capacity because they are already in survival mode, often close to homelessness. Strong family and church connections among Latino/a communities provide some,adaptive capacity. Many rural residents are more self sufficient and able to protect themselves. Organizations like ACCESS and Energy Trust have funds for upgrades. RVTD has matching funds opportunity. Work Source Rogue Valley ha's funds for job training that are often underutilized. AGRICULTURALA AND FOREST, � E 11S,, OTHER r OUTDOOR, AISONAL WORKERS—All of the climate change impacts'that affect,forests and agriculture will also affect forest and''agricultural workers. For example, as forests become stressed from climate change, pests, and disease, forest workers may , have trouble find ng enough work. If heat, drought, u r and larger storms�affect agricultural production, seasonal farm workers could experience less reliable , I employment. In addition, these workers are r themselves affected by heat and storms, making their � �� o � jobs more dangerous to their health. One of the Harvest workers in Oregon. Photo from greatest impacts may be the lack of predictability for Wikimedia commons. seasonal workers who need to string together consistent employment. GIIEOS ' g l �������1�I�N11111145�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul VI VIV�0000unnnnnu _.. 111111111�111�11�1 ������uuU�������� ����������� INSTITUTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Stressors—Some existing stressors for forest and agricultural workers include insufficient water and breaks, very low wages, periodic drought, a lack of power or representation to ensure good conditions and fair wages, undocumented workers, a lack of family medical coverage, and the physically demanding aspect of their jobs. Low income is also a stressor to outdoor and seasonal workers. Adaptive Capacity—As agriculture and/or forestry jobs become less predictable, fire fighting jobs may become better options. Fire fighting generally has higher wages than agriculture and forestry jobs. SERVICE — Many jobs in Southern Oregon and especially in Ashland are service industry jobs related to the tourist—based economy. If the natural beauty of the area is diminished from climate change, due to dead and dying forests, wildfire, and lower water quality and quantity in rivers and streams, the tourist-based economy is likely to suffer. Similarly, extreme heat and smoke from wildfire could keep tourists away from the region. Stressors—The service industry already experiences fluctuations in employment levels, creating uncertainty in income and a lack of job security for many workers. Many service industry workers rely on public transportation, which is limited, and are unable to evacuate in the case of a natural disaster such as a large wildfire or flood. In addition, low income housing is often placed in flood-prone areas. Low income in itself is also a stressor to service industry workers. Adaptive Capacity— Low income service workers are often flexible in the type of employment they"can fill, but have very little overall adaptive capacity. Because many people do not own homes, they have some flexibility allowing them to move to areas with more jobs, if needed. i 10MELESS— Homeless residents,,in," Note on income: We found a common and the: Rogue Valley are h ighly sensitive to stressor among all socioeconomic groups climate"change. They are affected by extreme that were vulnerable to climate change, and heat, larger."storms causing flooding, poor air that was low income. Having a low income in quality from smoke, poor water quality from . addition to health problems, racial biases, bacteria and toxins,. and a lack of water due to job type, and age greatly exacerbates the drought. While shelters are set up to protect impacts of climate change. By targeting the people from freezing temperatures, there are issue of wage disparity, numerous no cooling centers or shelters to protect populations could become more resilient to people, and their pets, from extreme heat. Due the impacts of climate change. to the lack of transportation, homeless people have a difficult time evacuating during emergencies. Stressors—A lack of transportation makes it difficult for homeless residents to get the services and supplies they need, which in Ashland are on opposite ends of town. GIIEOS // ,,�„ aaaaaaaaaaiaaa�1Uuuf��llllu�INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Criminalization of many behaviors and basic human needs, such as sleeping and relieving oneself, results in confrontations with police, fines, and jail for people already dealing with mental health struggles. Community stress from climate change could create even less willingness by the public to accommodate the homeless, resulting in a lack of compassion and even more criminalization. Adaptive Capacity— Homeless residents, and especially those homeless by choice or for a long time, may have high adaptive capacity because they are already used to dealing with climate extremes and are relatively savvy about outdoor living. Even so, many of the conditions projected by climate change models surpass those that have occurred historically, which could stress homeless populations. Additional target communities to assess include non-English speakers,'young children in low income households, LGBTQ community, indigenous peo'ple, renters, low income and homeless people with pets or service dogs, people with no health insurance, and isolated elders. Some potent141 SOLUTIONSincluded: • Develop system of cooling stations in convenient locations and public areas • More consistent shelter openings, including shelters from the heat • Develop more approaches like Hope Village in Medford (tiny homes village) • Create job programs that link together seasonal employment for more security and consistent income • Proactively discuss equity and disadvantaged populations in all City planning processes, rather than afterwards • Implement financial strategies to allow low income home owners to upgrade energy systems • Provide incentives for landlords to invest in energy upgrades, air conditioning, comfort, and airqualityin rentalunits • Train people with relationships in different communities (Latino communities or churches for example) to do outreach on energy, water, heat impacts, and other issues • Ensure that the message resonates so people understand their role. Compensate people for participation. • Provide opportunities for low income people to become the educators and leaders. • Ally different organizations - have them come together on climate change. • City commissions need to actively recruit people with a diversity of backgrounds. Foir imoire ir iii I n i ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Health and EmergencyResponse The impacts of climate change on human health are numerous and expected to be increasingly detrimental. For example, increased temperatures can cause ground level ozone to become far more concentrated, exacerbating respiratory and heart disease and leading to mortality. Also, extreme heat is the top source of mortality of all natural disasters, and is expected to increase substantially in the years to come. The current outbreak and spread of Zika virus is an example of the increased disease risk associated with climate change. The relationship between human health and the myriad of climate impacts is well documented, from water-borne disease to mental health issues. —Older adults, especially those with low incomes, substandard housing, or without air conditioning, are expected to have serious impacts from extreme heat,,,storms and flooding, drought, and smoke from wildfire. Many elders already experience health challenges, which are expected to be exacerbated by climate impacts. Decreased lung capacity, heart problems, lowered awareness, low mobility, physiological sensitivity to dehydration, and lowered body temperature regulation all make elders more sensitive to the impacts of climate change. Elders that live in rural areas and/or are isolated from family memb rs'are especially at risk. Stressors—Additional stressors to'elders include isolation, lack of public transportation combined with reduced mobility,'long distances from family,members, lack of affordable housing, and a quickly growing population without enough caregivers. Adaptive Capacity—Adaptive capacity comes from many elders living in retirement communities or assisted care. Also, there are numerous civic and church organizations for elders, medical facilities that act as community hubs, case managers for those with extra medical support, and support programs to help with utility bills, health care, and emergency response. Jackson County Health, citizen alert programs like Everbridge, 1700 AM radio, and even ham radio were all listed as available resources for elders. IIL"" ° E —Young children are at risk 4 from extreme heat, water- or vector-borne disease, smoke and ozone leading to asthma, r ; and bacteria'a"nd toxins in water. Children of r single mothers, young mothers, and low ljjjjjjj income parents are,at epecially at risk. Y r I� it I yi r Stressors—Single parents and low income parents working full time have the ';, additional stressors of a lack of childcare �'� � r. and unsupervised kids in summer, when ! r 'r r extreme heat is a risk. Low incomer households also have less access to air conditioning. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Adaptive Capacity— La Clinica offers health care for low income families. Also, many parent and other support groups are available, including La Leche, ESL groups, and others. I i E RE �� aiiiirid F U U°' L rc �✓ ��' Y,4�'I �+i'I i�Yiil��,1��i ��I�o ",l III I nnm U nnni°� U I"" Staff at hospitals, first 1 responders fire fighters university health providers, and others are at p risk due to the potential increase in �r extreme events and natural disasters associated with climate change. As these staff members �r serve the community, they also become concerned about their own families, homes, and other loved ones, making it more difficult to provide quality services and take ',/ p q Y care of their own mental and � it ulN/r0 rdi r r.... physical health. Fire fighters are already responding to longer and more extreme fire seasons, putting Photo from Wikimedia Commons. their own lives on the line and dealing with loss of fellow fire,fighters. Stressors—Stigm 'atization of mental health issues. For profit health systems (including hospice) that prioritize cost swings rather than health outcomes or readiness. Adaptive Capacity— Firewse program and CERT to increase fire protection within the community. Because we have a Tier II hospital, procedures are already in place for a major disease outbreak in the area. Natural disaster and disease training exercises increase efficiency and effectiveness of response, reducing impacts to the public and to first responders as well. RESIDENTS it1 " [��� ""�` ID R — Students at SOU are far from their families, without support during extreme events. Climate impacts include extreme heat, more extreme storms and flooding, and smoke and ozone. College students often leave for the summer, reducing their exposure to extreme heat. Many elders also lack family in the vicinity. Stressors— Many classrooms and apartments are not air conditioned. Athletes and outdoor recreationists can be exposed to heat and poor air quality during practice. Adaptive Capacity—Students are young and physically more resilient than older adults. They are more able to withstand heat. Many students at SOU have cars and are able to evacuate during disasters. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu PEOPLE """"'"1H AS I I IMA AND RESRIRA"""U"'" E — People of all ages, but especially very young children and elders, with compromised respiratory systems are at risk from increase in ozone, smoke and particulates, and pollen associated with climate change. U EEE — please see previous section on Equity and Disadvantaged Populations. Additional target communities and resources to assess include people with low mobility (physical mobility and also due to a lack of transportation), international travelers, seasonal and migrant workers, people without health insurance, climate refugees from other areas, people with mental illness, first responders, people living in the forest interface, outdoor enthusiasts iii " iii " l SOLU 1 IONS "Uncluded.- Increase and strengthen efforts to improve water quality in streams and rivers • Change land use codes to reduce building in high risk areas (such as forest interface and flood zones) • Anticipate new health challenges related to climate change and address them proactively • Implement the recommendations in the Jackson County Climate and Health Action Plan • Partner with churches (such as Catholic church) to provide training in health and • Create buddy system for those without family • City should have greater emergency supply of water and food • Map neighborhood residents so people know who needs support and resources • Create systems of neighborhood captains • Educate and provide people with the correct type of mask for smoke • Need to have an evacuation plan for pets and livestock • Distribute water purifiers for emergency situations F�br more,ilt iii iii inded SOL FI nd'lx Em GEOS 0111 INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu BUSINESS AND AGRICULTURE Businesses in Ashland and the Rogue Valley are diverse, including manufacturing, agricultural production, outdoor recreation, tourism, retail, and other industries. Government and health care are the largest employers overall. The business and agriculture workshop participants identified numerous potential vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. These are not comprehensive, and many other vulnerabilities still need to be identified and quantified. Many of the business vulnerabilities identified in this report are focused on Ashland, due to Ashland's current efforts to develop a Climate and Energy Action Plan. "1""' E —Changes to the natural beauty of the area, changes to fish and wildlife, extreme heat, smoke, and severe storms are all likely to impact tourism, which makes up a significant portion of the local economy in Ashland and other areas of the Rogue Valley. Stressors— High housing prices and limited public transportation already make it difficult for low income and seasonal workers to live and work ire Ashland. Adaptive Capacity— Many tourist attractions can shift their seasons to shoulder seasons if summers become too hot and/or smoky. Inside theaters, non-snow recreation, and diverse alternative tourist attractions such as wine tasting and mountain biking create more resilience and opportunity. "S��,,,�,,�,,,'ASOIYXI W011KERSMt. Ashland Ski Area, Oregon Shakespeare Festival, local hotels and restaurants, rafting guides, grape and pear harvesters, and a variety of other seasonal workers could experience disruptions in work availability due to climate change (from declines in snowpack, changes to forests, smoke impacts, drought and extreme heat) pushing them into poverty or to Ieaue the area. Stressors— High housing prices and limited public transportation already make it difficult for low income and seasonal workers to live and work in Ashland. Ski area workers already experience years without employment opportunities. Adaptive Capacity—The diversity of seasonal jobs means that even with changes in one industry, options might still exist in other industries to sew together year-round work. L —SOU and the City of Ashland attract students and tourists with landscaping and parks. Bigger storms, extreme heat, water shortages from drought, and increased pests and disease could all take a toll on landscaping. Additionally, many of the current trees and plants may no longer grow well in new and changing conditions. Stressors—Outdated irrigation systems make it difficult for large users such as SOU to save water, because pipes can burst from water pressure if the water isn't used. Many GIIEOS // ,,�„ aaaaaaaaaaiaaa�1Uuuf��llllu�INSTITUTE 11 l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadAArimmum////%//////////iiiAmmimiimiimmAlll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmrAUrrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu landscaping trees are already dying from disease, and tree removal is very expensive for property owners. Adaptive Capacity— Many residents are already planting native and drought-tolerant species. The TID provides untreated water for many parks and yards at lower cost. Mulching offers another common way to save water. ELEC"" """"'"1 FROM Ul PANELS—The solar industry is growing quickly in Southern Oregon, as in many other parts of the nation. Yet smoke from more wildfires threatens to lower solar energy production. Smoke from wildfire can reduce output by 30%, and ash and other residue can coat solar panels, reducing their output until they are cleaned. °° L°°U E—Agriculture is already g Y ��V�, ��!�Vl it � ✓e /fJ/� �1 r l�Aii�� �}� being affected by climate change, and will continue to be affected by new diseases m= a ' m and pests, a loss of important "chill hours" from freezing nights, extreme conditionsOm A ! (heat, storm damage, drought), declines ,> n in water quality, and declines in hydropower during drought, which could' ' affect electricity costs for marijuana growing. Crops may become less hardy as F . there are fewer freezing temperatures in winter. Additionally, many,crops will no longer be able to be grown in the area and new crops will need to be planted 0 P r ru `r Illy 'nt � 14.,�,N�M � �r�,Y r, ' �� N w•y fi'iwwy, making it more difficult to grow crops,that require years before maturation, such as wino gapes and fruit trees (Harry and David). Increased pesticide and herbicide use in response to climate change could create secondary impacts to farm workers,,the public,,Water quality, and fish and wildlife. Stressors—Outdated irrigation systems make it difficult for large users such as SOU to save water., because pipes can burst from water pressure if the water isn't used. Many landscapin ,trees are already dying from disease, and tree removal is very expensive for property owners. Adaptive Capacity— Many options are already available to reduce heat impacts and water use limitations. Kalonite can be applied to make plants reflective. Harry and David already import some of their fruit instead of growing it al locally. Compared to other areas, water availability is high in the Rogue Valley, which could compensate for increased heat. U 10MES AND ENERGY US�1�11111Iv�—see the next section on Infrastructure and Planning. ,l 111111111a��rrrrl�larrN111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. ��N��1111�1�11�1�1��1����II�IIIIII I II ���������uuU��������� ����������� INSTITUTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu QUALI"""U"'" Related to many of the impacts to tourism are impacts to the quality of life that brings people to the Rogue Valley. Our region is a retirement destination because of the beautiful forests, temperate climate, water availability, large rivers, and abundant fish and wildlife. Many of these features are threatened by climate change. Real estate values could decline if the area no longer acts as a draw, in alternatively, people are likely to move to the area as climate change hits the coastlines and areas with extreme heat, drought or storms far worse than the Rogue Valley. The area could become a draw for climate refugees. Additional target communities and resources to assess include food supply (local and imported agricultural products), city trees, power lines, water supply issues,for businesses (brewing) Soirne poteiiint'41 SOLU I I *I iiin6l • Choose robust plants and trees, climate adapted for future conditions • Plant more trees for shade and air quality • Natural pest predators to reduce the need for pesticides, herbicides • Look at international best practices to see what works in other places —innovation • Support farmers in helping them conserve water- Update building codes to make buildings more effcient • Outreach —expand current efforts—especially to new audiences • Increase renewable energy installation, especially for low' income homes • Diversify energy r more recornmended SOLUTIONS,, see Appendix GEOS ,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. IITSTTTTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNING Current infrastructure and planning processes are based on codes and protocols that have the same basic assumption —continued historic climate. Unless plans, codes, and guidelines have been updated to incorporate climate change model projections, they assume that risks from wildfire, floods, contaminants, and other variables will fall within the historic range of variation and averages. Unfortunately, we know that this assumption is false, and that many future conditions will not only be outside that historical range, but will also be unanticipated. As 100-year floods become 20- or 10-year floods, and 80-year fire return intervals become 40- year fire return intervals (or less), all planning processes, codes, and guidelines will need to be updated. At this point in time, we need to not only be considering future conditions as we maintain and upgrade our existing infrastructure, but also consider likely future conditions and the magnitude of change in siting and sizing of new infrastructure. The infrastructure and planning workshop participants identified numerous potential vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. MUNICIPAL PPS T — Risks to municipal water supply include less reliable precipitation, lower snowpack, higher evaporation from increasing temperatures, increased sedimentation from severe storms and wildfire, and increasing demand with longer, hotter summers. Warmer temperatures are likely to lead to more algae blooms, and lower flows could cause higher contamination rates. Higher prices and limitations on businesses that use a lot of water (such as breweries) could cause impacts to low income populations and economic growth in the future. Stressors—The Roue River, which provides water for Medford and other communities, and is already over-appropriated, even without considering the impacts of climate change. Not enough redundancy in supply makes communities vulnerable during drought or extreme events. If water,conservation is increased, pipes may need to be resized to Withstand lower flows.Water from TAP is more expensive than water from Reeder, and could affect pricing. Impervious surfaces and pavement make it difficult for water to infiltrate groundwater. Clay soils also prevent infiltration. Adaptive Capacity—Connection to TAP (water from the Rogue River available now to Ashland from Medford) has provided a backup supply. While Ashland's supply is more reliant on snowpack, Medford's is less so, creating some diversification in supply. Conservation programs in Ashland are already quite good and the community is engaged. GEOS INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu LEN I G I —TID water is used foragriculture and also y made available for landscape watering in certain areas. Risks to the TO are similar to those to municipal water supply. Water quality is expected to be an issue as water levels decline and evaporation increases. TID water is also , used as a backup for municipal water in � 'r`r/` � ,ul � r( Ashland, and water quality issues could( r r affect treatment cost. Additionally, TID water flows into Bear Creek and can affect algae blooms and bacteria outbreaks. oW�h„ ' r a Stressors—TID can be laden with r p pesticides, herbicides, bacteria, and other contaminants. Because the TID is not metered, waste is common. Because the delivery systems for TID are outdated, there are many limitations, such as SOU having to water regardless of need because otherwise the pipes would burst from the high water pressure. Adaptive Capacity—The WISE project is moving forward, with plans to pipe the TO and reduce loss through evaporation and leakage. LOCALI CIIEEKS— Local creeks, such as Bear Creek and Ashland Creek are expected to have lower low flows and more sedimentation during high flows. E. coli and other bacteria and contaminants could increase due to warmer waters, lower flows and more storms that wash contaminants into the streams. WAST E° I° T — Many areas are already prone to flooding, which is expected to worsen with larger storms. Downtown Ashland, neighborhoods that back to Bear Creek, homes along Clay Creek, and other known areas are all at risk. Stressors—Continued development of wetlands and other natural water storage features exacerbate the flood risk. Low income housing is often placed in flood zones, especially trailer and mobile homes, putting low income residents at a greater risk for life-changing events. Downtown Ashland already experiences flood damage, such as hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage last summer from an unexpected downpour, which affected local businesses. Adaptive Capacity—The state revolving fund "SRF" that provides better rates on loans when wastewater and stormwater are planned together. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 111111�11�111�11�1��1���� DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� arrrrraarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu WATERF """"'"RUC"""U"'" R — Reeder reservoir is the main water storage for Ashland, and has been rated as safe up to a 10,000 year flood event. Medford's water infrastructure could be at risk from more severe storms that create sedimentation and require more water treatment at high cost prior to delivery. Increased sedimentation of Emigrant Lake and other local reservoirs create turbid water conditions. F r, 1 l E ER G R RUC 1 ff l�'.'—The City of Ashland owns its own utility, and purchases power from Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). Medford, Grants Pass and other communities get their power from Pacific Power. Ashland's energy comes largely from hydroelectric power, which has been shown to be highly sensitive to ir�0ui�i� � p i JiuliYiiY �p�i climate impacts, including the loss of r natural water storage in snowpack, changes to precipitation, more sedimentation, and more evaporation (van Vliet et al. 201 ). t r BPA predicts a shortage of hydropower capacity during low water and extreme weather conditions (Northwest Power and Conservation,Council 2016). Pacific Power will be aff cted'by the Clean Power Plan, which requires reductions in greenhouse gas emirions associated with fossil fuel based energy production. Risks to energy infrastructure include risks to transmissions lines and distribution systems, lowered distribution efficiency with higher temperatures,,and increased demand for energy in summer with higher temperatures and electric vehicles. Stre'ssors—Ashland produces hydropower from Reeder Reservoir, and this dewaters portions of Ashland reek, compromising about a mile of Steelhead habitat. The City's enery,use now has a second peak in the summer, due to more use of air conditioning, which is likely to increase. Homes are developed for reducing heat loss more than they are for staying,ceol. Also, homes are developed without siting for solar panels, creating a missed opportunity,for more clean energy. Adaptive Capacity—The existing relationship between the City of Ashland and Bonneville provides relatively clean and inexpensive energy for the city. Solar panel installation is growing quickly and can provide a significant portion of the city's power. "F [)U�U """I"'" """U"'"ION —The primary risks to transportation and transportation infrastructure are extreme heat and more severe storms, both of which can impact roads and highways. Extreme heat can also cause train tracks to buckle. Large storms can destroy or damage bridges and culverts, and can cause extreme sedimentation from unpaved roads into rivers and streams. ,a 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. IITST"TT' TE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Additionally, extreme heat and smoke puts people at risk as the walk or bike, and are likely to reduce the success of efforts to get people to use alternative transportation more often. Stressors— Many students and workers in Ashland cannot afford to live in Ashland and commute, putting stress on roads and highways. Insufficient public transportation leads to more cars on the road. Bikes lanes are insufficient and often bikes are forced to ride with cars, creating unsafe situations for bikers. Adaptive Capacity— New funding that allows for improvements to RVTD. Additional target communities and resources to assess include wild land urban interface (WUI) planning, electric car infrastructure, trees versus fire safety versus solar production (best approach for all three), water in creeks, reservoir production, etc. Soirne potentiali lili l • Develop more and innovative water conservation measures • Strengthen codes and standards, especially for multi-family housing • Use bioswales, permeable pavement, and other app roaches to reduce flood risk to homes • Include climate change projections and information in EVERY planning process — plan for future range of variability and future conditions • Increase regional coordination in planning • Solar energy production on reservoirs • Look at new technologies in using treated wastewater for use • Reduce build ng,in high risk areas (such as forest interface and flood zones) • After floods, move development rather than reconstructing in high risk areas • New homes in high risk areas should pay for protection • Upgrade culverts to benefit fish • Give food production priority for water (over marijuana and landscaping) • Address equity through electricity rate structure • Expand Rogue Valley Transportation District • City should give preference to minority-owned and women-owned businesses For moire recomMe' nded SOW nONS, see A�p�pendix A GEOS INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Conclusions Climate change is a global threat with locally-unique impacts for communities. Because each region is affected differently, it is vital to assess vulnerabilities at the local level. Some of the most important impacts to the Rogue Valley include air and water quality declines, affecting human health and natural systems, as well as changes to our forests and more extreme storms, heat, and drought conditions. The most vulnerable residents and resources are generally those with the least adaptive capacity to deal with the additional impacts of climate change. Many of the impacts of climate change in the Rogue Valley cannot be avoided and actions must be taken to protect the most vulnerable populations and resources from accelerating change. Because climate change affects all sectors and resources across the:board, coordinated actions are needed to increase overall resilience. Without coordination, action's1n one sector often shift the impact to other sectors, vulnerable populations, and/or future generations. We are seeking solutions that build resilience across sectors, populations, and resources while also addressing historical stressors and inequities. Efforts to reduce emissions quickly and aggressively are also needed. By keeping global average temperatures below 1.5° C (about 2.7° degrees F),,,and returning atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 350ppm, we can protect young people andfuture generations from catastrophic impacts and runaway climate change. As Ashland and other communities in the Rogue Valley take,on the challenge of planning for climate change, we have,an opportunity to do so in ways that create greater community resilience for ALL residents and resources. A recent review of climate change plans (Geos Institute, In Review) showed that some sectors Or populations are not receiving adequate attention in the planning process. Even-though climate change affects all sectors of our communities, disadvantaged populations, natural ecosystems, and economic systems are rarely addressed in,community plans, As Ashland completes the first comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan in Southern Oregon,we have the opportunity to lead the way and demonstrate truly co-beneficial solutions to climate change. Such solutions would address economic and social inequities, increase ecological resilience, and reach out to other communities to work across jurisdictions and create new collaborations. Focus on strategies that create co-benefits would include things like clean energy and home upgrades for low income residents, watershed restoration benefitting fish and protecting homes from flooding, and outreach with Latino populations to develop job opportunities clean energy. Such strategies focus on collaboration and co-benefits, which reduce conflict, save money, and build relationships within and among communities. Ashland and the Rogue Valley are at a turning point, and we believe our communities are heading in the right direction, by reducing emissions, creating new jobs in clean energy and creating more collaborative solutions. These solutions are ecologically sound and create the social equity and diversity that will allow our communities to thrive in coming decades. GIIEOS // ,,�„ aaaaaaaaaai�OO�1Uuuf��llllu�' g l �������1�I�N11111145�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul VI VIV�0000unnnnnu _.. 111111111�111�11�1 ������uuU�������� ����������� INSTITUTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu References Dennison, et al. 2014. Large wildfire trends in the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters 41:2928-2933. EcoNorthwest. 2009. An overview of potential economic costs to Oregon of a Business-as-usual approach to climate change. Available at: : . n . m i flj.es E iirth t Pu li tiii n Economic-Costs-of- ..... lrrrrl iii ii t,,,,,,,,,,. .f n ,, Qiir,,,,, n ,,,,,. rrrrrr,� rrrrrrrrr Jackson County Public Health (JCPH). 2013.Jackson County Climate and Health Action Plan. Available at: h : u ii ®h I t h. iir,,,,, n® H,,,,, l„Jh E n i r in m ii l ii m a ii ,,,,,ii t „, „ i ii�P rrrr, rrrr, �i rrrrrr,� - rrrrrrr![2r, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, rr,�rrr Northwest Power and Conservation Council. 2016. Seventh Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan. Available at: ht „l,,,,.,,,, .n iL r n r �Ia�n Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI).­20,16. City of Ashland Climate Trends and Projections (DRAFT). Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative (SOFRC),.,,2013. The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilience Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate. Available at: F R - - n -F r t - l imate- Ada t n Plan-FINAL23„ The Resource Innovation, ro,up (TRIG) and the'Geos Institute. 2008. Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon. Available at: htt . l t i s e......................................... ............................................ Van Vliet, M. Ti H., D. Wiber , ndK. Riah . 2016. Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.103 /NCLI MATE2903. ... ,l 111111111�������1�I���N111111�45�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllVIIIVIIV�0000unnnnnu _.. ���� �� ����� NNNNN���N�111111111�111�11�1��1����� ������uuU�������� ����������� IITST"TT' TE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Workshop Participants We want to thank the following individuals for participating in the workshops and providing valuable input and guidance. Thank you for your time and innovative thinking! Alex Budd, Unite Oregon Pam Marsh, Ashland City Council Alma Rosa Alvarez, Southern Oregon Larry Masterman, Medford Emergency University Management Leslie Becknell-Marx, Conversation That Kristi Mergenthaler, Southern Oregon Land Matters Conservancy Roxane Beigel-Coryell, Southern Oregon Christina Mills, Geos Institute University Melanie Mindlin, Siskiyou Permaculture Brandon Breen, KS Wild Jeanine Moy, K Wild Caren Caldwell, Rogue Climate Aaron Ott, Asante Medical Center Victor Chang, Southern Oregon University Bob Palzer, Rogue Valley Citizens for Clean Linda Chesney, Ashland Parks and Air Recreation Linda Reid, City of Ashland Sheila Clough, Asante Ashland Community Ah e Rosenbluth, Rogue Climate Hospital Connie Saldana, Rogue Valley Council of Vern Crawford Governments Dominick DellaSala, Geos Institute Ryan Sandler,NWS, NOAA Ken Deveney, Southern Oregon Climate Ben Scott, Residential Energy Solutions Action Now (SOCAN) L©uise Shawkat, CEAP Ad-hoc Committee Eric Dittmer, Facilitator and SOCAN Pieter Sme nk, City of Ashland Misty Duncan, National Oceanic and Julie Smitherman, City of Ashland Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and Hannah Sohl, Rogue Climate National Weather Service (NWS) Bryan Sohl, CEAP Ad-hoc Committee Shaun Franks, True South Solar Hiram Towle, Mount Ashland Association Huelz Gear, Structural Wattage Cheryl Ugland Michelle Glass, Unite Oregon Rich Ugland Tonya Graham, Geos Institute Dan Van Dyke, Oregon Department of Fish Elizabeth Hallett, SOCAN and Wildlife Adam Hank , CityofAshland Libby Van Wyhe, Ashland Parks and Greg Jones, Southern Oregon Univesity Recreation Alan Journet, SOCAN Dean Walker, The Impossible Conversation Marni Koopman, Gelbs Institute Geoff Weaver, Geos Institute Jim Lunders,Jackson County Vector Control Brett Lutz, N WS, NOAA GIIEOS INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Appendix A. Additional information from the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment In June-July 2016,the Geos Institute held a series of workshops on climate change vulnerabilities in Ashland and the Rogue Basin.The results from that effort are in draft form and will be released in September 2016.These tables include draft solutions, reorganized to fit the Ad-hoc Committee on Climate and Energy Action Planning(CEAP) categories,for use in that planning process. The climate change vulnerability assessment focused primarily on vulnerabilities, but inevitably the experts at the workshops offered up potential solutions. Below we list their suggestions, which have been reorganized by the categories being used in the Climate and Energy Action planning process for the City of Ashland. • Health and Social Systems • Natural Resources (includes agriculture and water) • Buildings and Energy • Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation • Consumption and Materials Management • Other Additional solutions recommended in the 2008 climatechange preparedness report (TRIG and Geos Institute 2008)1 are also listed, and were derived similarly from'a series of expert elicitation workshops. More recommendations for protecting people and resources from climate impacts can be found in the following reports:Jackson County Public Health (201...3)2 and Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative (2013)3 Strategies from these report are locally-specific to Southern Oregon and should inform adaptation planning in our region. Most strategies listed here are specific to protecting people and resources from the impacts of climate change (climate change "adaptation') rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions (climate change "mitigatio.n"), but both are listed. Many strategies are listed in more than one category because the strategy crosses over different topics, or because it was recommended in more than one workshop. The source codes show where each solution came from, based on the following acronyms: NR= Natural Resources workshop INF= Infrastructure and Planning workshop ECON = Business and Agriculture workshop HEA= Health and Emergency Response workshop EQ= Equity and Disadvantaged Populations workshop TRIG = Rogue Basin climate change preparedness assessment from 2008 1 The Resource Innovation Group (TRIG) and the Geos Institute. 2008. Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon. Available at:..............t, Ilim to i eeor Iro°eats . -Iro ue-rivelr-Ib sin 2 Jackson County Public Health (JCPH). 2013.Jackson County Climate and Health Action Plan. Available at:,h .p .l�u�lb�li�olb ��lbm�� �� �v/Ili ��lbyl lr�villr lr�imen�/ hlim eclf� lr� �/Do uIrnelnt,s/ d 1pt tiioi Plai ,s/ d �� �i�lr�-Ij114 jack on d� 3 southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative (SOFRC). 2013.The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilience Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate. Available at: ,ih..t _ ........._ .Q..! :f.. .a. �r content u Ilo .. 2 11 24 C�I�I - telrsheds,...and,...Forests,... hire te,... ,t2tion-I�i n,...FI.N L 10 � ..............................................................I..................................... ................................. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ..............................................................................................................................................I............... ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 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Create job programs that link together seasonal EQ employment for more security and consistent income Link jobs with climate change preparation, such as TRIG restoration work and home upgrades Invest in new technology and job training EQ Develop a renewable energy economy with high quality EQ Buildings and Energy jobs Support a sustainable and diversified economy EQ Increase and strengthen efforts to improve water quality HEA Natural Resources in streams and rivers Job training for low income INFR City should give preference to minority-owned and INFR women-owned businesses Proactively discuss equity and disadvantaged populations EQ Buildings and Energy in all City planning processes, rather than afterwards Cities address the issue of equity and disadvantaged EQ populations at the very highest levels of government Increase connection between equity issues and local EQ government Ally different organizations- have them come together on EQ climate change. City commissions need to actively recruit people with a EQ diversity of backgrounds. Community planning should take a Whole Community EQ approach—all decisions include consideration of equity and disadvantaged communities to create co-benefits Ensure that the Healthy Climate Bill funds some of these EQ strategies Look for co-benefits and avoid conflicts among groups, EQ sectors, mitigation/adaptation, etc. Have lending institutions become part of the solution EQ Implement financial strategies to allow low income home EQ Buildings and Energy owners to upgrade energy systems Increase resilience among low income in order to have EQ them able to think about things like energy and climate INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 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Change land use codes to reduce building in high risk HEA Urban Form, Land Use, and areas (such as forest interface and flood zones) Transportation Expand CERT HEA Expand education through FireWise HEA Natural Resources Partner with churches (such as Catholic church)to HEA provide training in health and emergency response Latino parent group—Jackson education district HEA Create buddy system for those without family HEA Increase electronic signups for notices, updates—cell HEA phone coordinator Create more public spaces with AC(cooling centers) HEA Buildings and Energy City should have greater emergency supply of water and HEA food Map neighborhood residents so people know who needs HEA support and resources Create systems of neighborhood captains HEA Use ham radio to contact certain populations HEA Need to have an evacuation plan for pets and livestock HEA Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation Distribute water purifiers for emergency situations HEA Natural Resources Develop mutual aid districts HEA Campus wide communication and control—SOU HEA Invest in public transportation to make it more EQ Urban Form, Land Use, and convenient and abundant Transportation Create public transportation linkages and plan for TRIG Urban Form, Land Use, and emergency situations and evacuation. Transportation INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Create redundancy planning/backup and secondary plan HEA Anticipate new health challenges related to climate HEA change and address them proactively Implement the recommendations in the Jackson County HEA Climate and Health Action Plan Update and expand vector control programs to better TRIG respond to emerging disease Enhance strategies to anticipate new health service needs TRIG and ensure the most vulnerable residents get services Educate people on how to evaluate air quality based on HEA visibility Educate and provide people with the correct type of mask HEA for smoke Provide education and information on heat impacts and HEA how to protect yourself Change in work hours so people can avoid the heat HEA Education on air quality and the risk of exercise HEA Better air quality notification system HEA Use adaptation measures to close the equality gap. EQ Opportunity for resilience across all sectors and groups. Ashland's plan needs to come up with more options EQ rather than fewer for disadvantaged populations. Train people with relationships in different communities EQ (Latino communities or churches for example) to do outreach on energy, water, heat impacts, and other issues Ensure that the message resonates so people understand EQ their role. Compensate people for participation. Provide opportunities for low income people to become the educators and leaders. INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 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IHH 11111H111 111 1101111111M I 11 1 1 11�1 1 I wU1 l 11 ICI 1 111�I I 11 wUl l I Terrestrial and Riparian Natural Systems Place new renewable energy development and other NR Buildings and Energy development on already degraded and fragmented lands. Protection and restoration of ecosystem structure, NR,TRIG function, and genetic diversity to allow organisms to withstand and adapt to climate stressors. Protect remaining intact habitats, including old growth, NR,TRIG roadless areas,grasslands, oak woodlands, and others. Protect areas that provide ecosystems services, such as TRIG water filtration, fire protection, recreation,flood abatement, pollinator habitat, and others. Increase coordination and implementation of riparian NR Urban Form, Land Use, and renewal - reduce invasive species and increase native Transportation species. Rehydrate the watershed by creating beaver-like NR Urban Form, Land Use, and structures and/or introducing beavers. Transportation Place thinned trees (logs)touching the ground NR Urban Form, Land Use, and perpendicular to slope to hold moisture and create Transportation rehydration of watershed. Forest management should be based on future conditions TRIG and increase greater structural and genetic diversity for increased resilience Manage forests with longer rotation between harvest to TRIG increase carbon sequestration. Enforce the City's riparian ordinance. Retain dead trees NR Urban Form, Land Use, and for fish and wildlife. Transportation Trim the vegetation on Neil Creek near the airport to NR Urban Form, Land Use, and ensure a low canopy cover for shade,while also meeting Transportation? airport requirements. Plant more native plants along Tolman Creek at the golf NR course. Implement a multi-decade riparian restoration effort NR Urban Form, Land Use, and from the headwaters down to heal the streams in time to Transportation reduce extreme damage in the future. Restored riparian vegetation will likely encourage beaver activity in lower reaches that should help the effort.This will not necessarily provide a significant benefit for stream INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. 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Map and protect remnant spring and wetland habitats NR Urban Form, Land Use, and within the city limits, and advocate for their protection Transportation throughout the watershed. Encourage planting of native trees and shrubs, which NR have a greater chance of surviving a changing climate compared to most ornamentals. Perhaps require a certain percent of native trees and shrubs for new development. Combine vegetation guidance for wildfire with vegetation INF guidance for solar and drought. Expand education through FireWise. HEA Health and Social Services Strategic fire and ecologically appropriate fuels reduction TRIG efforts Redirect responsibility for emergency services to private TRIG Urban Form, Land Use, and parties that choose to locate in high risk areas Transportation, Buildings and Energy Water Develop more and innovative water conservation INF measures Use bioswales, permeable pavement, and other INF Buildings and energy approaches to reduce flood risk to homes Consider improvements to water use timing to align with INF cost (e.g. TAP more expensive) Communicate watering times to spread out demand INF Avoid over-appropriation of water (Rogue River,for TRIG example, is already over-appropriated) Look at new technologies in using treated wastewater for INF Buildings and energy use High water and energy prices are ok -they lead to INF Buildings and energy innovation and technology, but need to protect low income residents More xeriscaping INF Buildings and energy Implement WISE (piping of ditch systems) INF Look into using more untreated water for landscaping INF Buildings and energy applications Expand catchment INF Buildings and energy INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Increase pervious surfaces INF Buildings and energy Increase and strengthen efforts to improve water quality HEA Health and Social Services in streams and rivers Modernize the hydropower facility to optimize NR Buildings and Energy production and move it closer to Reeder, so that water flows the entire distance between Reeder and Granite Street. Partner with Jackson County and others to determine INF how to minimize fine sediment input into Emigrant Lake. Target restoration of Upper Emigrant Watershed INF Better water projections for future supply, cost, and ECON quality Restore fish passage at Granite Street Dam to allow NR, INF Urban Form, Land Use, and native migratory fish to use Ashland Creek up to Reeder Transportation where there is cold water habitat for winter steelhead. Utilize expert panel to review the "rule curve"/operation NR of Reeder Reservoir to look for improvements for supply and fish use downstream; plan for more extreme conditions. Acquire older water rights to Ashland Creek and place as NR instream rights. Investigate the Ashland Creek watershed for areas that NR have the potential to shed decomposed granite sediment into the creek, and reduce sediment entry. Continue to improve passage throughout the creek, NR Urban Form, Land Use, and especially for juvenile fish to help them utilize this cold Transportation water source. Some sites include the weir at Caldera, Smith-Meyer-Roper diversion, and city culverts. Screen Ashland Pond. NR Support restoration of fish passage for all life stages of NR Urban Form, Land Use, and fish in mainstream Bear Creek leading to Ashland, and in Transportation the tributaries in/above Ashland to help give native migratory fish the best chance of surviving long term. Identify what level of flood risk to plan for—50 year, 100 INF Buildings and energy, Urban year, 500 year? Form, Land Use, and Transportation Expand low income credits for water and sewer INF Health and Social Systems Make water conservation a top priority ECON Buildings and energy Look at international best practices to see what works in ECON other places—innovation ''" ��� r%/iiiiaa//////%%%////%%%1UIIIIIIIIIIIIII(IIIIIIIII INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Water technology and resuse from Australia and other ECON places Let homeowners know how they rate in their community NR Buildings and energy for water use. Post the median value for water use each month on the city website so folks can track their own progress. Distribute water purifiers for emergency situations HEA Health and Social Services Increase and strengthen efforts to protect water quality INF Urban Form, Land Use, and in streams and rivers Transportation Manage Reeder reservoir differently to reduce INF downstream flows during flooding Upgrade culverts to benefit fish—right size INF Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation Restore more Ashland creek water below Reeder INF reservoir Remove water treatment plant to protect fish INF City should post throughout the year what the NR streamflow would be in lower Ashland Creek if not for diversions (combined flow in East and West forks from gauges versus the flow at the lower Ashland Creek gauge). Plan road crossing for larger storm events, on Ashland INF Urban Form, Land Use, and Creek and Bear Creek, improve fish passage Transportation Restore stream complexity and connectivity to improve TRIG spawning areas and allow access to cooler waters Restore and maintain critical landscapes such as high TRIG elevation riparian areas,floodplains,tributary junctions, north-facing streams, and stream reaches with gravel and topographic complexity. Protect genetic and life history diversity of fisheries TRIG Restore stream cooling in Ashland area into Bear Creek. NR Increase canopy cover along streams to cool the water. NR Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation Decommission roads to reduce sedimentation in streams NR Urban Form, Land Use, and during large storms. Transportation Reduce building in high risk areas (such as forest interface TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural and flood zones) Resources After floods, move development rather than TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural reconstructing in high risk areas Resources Agriculture INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Help farmers to support wine industry as they need to ECON change wine varietals. Also for fruit growers as the crop types need to change ECON Maintain existing crops as long as possible while TRIG researching new crops. Expand agricultural energy and water conservation and TRIG efficiency programs Improve irrigation coordination (through WISE project NR Urban Form, Land Use, and and other projects). Transportation Increase water conservation (residential and agriculture) NR Buildings and Energy to keep water in streams. Give food production priority for water(over marijuana INF and landscaping) Support farmers in helping them conserve water ECON Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation G, EOS INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Table 3. Buildings and Energy recommendations for climate change "solutions" (both mitigation and adaptation). ------------ Place new renewable energy development and other NR Natural Resources development on already degraded and fragmented lands. More consistent shelter openings, including shelters from EQ Health and Social Systems the heat Develop more approaches like Hope Village in Medford EQ Health and Social Services (tiny homes village) Capitalize on existing funds, such as the trust fund EQ Health and Social Services through affordable housing division in Ashland Provide incentives for landlords to invest in energy EQ Health and Social Services upgrades, air conditioning, comfort, and air quality in rental units Expand conservation and efficiency programs to TRIG dramatically reduce energy and water use Invest carbon credits in upgrades and clean energy for EQ Health and Social Services low income communities Solar energy production on reservoirs INF Natural Resources Increase distributed energy to provide backups during TRIG supply problems and to stabilize costs. Strengthen codes and standards, especially for multi- INF Health and Social Services family housing Get solar(5-7MW) on line faster and electric cars on the INF road New roofs aligned for solar energy INF Assess ALL actions and plans for KWH, cost, and carbon INF Business and Economics saved More community solar on schools, storage units, etc. INF Hire City staff to install solar panels INF Business and Economics Address equity through electricity rate structure INF Health and Social Services Use funds from Healthy Climate Bill to retrofit low income INF homes with renewable energy and conservation AMI metering NR Update building codes to make buildings more efficient ECON More efficient cooling systems—need to get them into ECON peoples' homes ASAP Training and education in conservation ECON INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Outreach—expand current efforts—especially to new ECON audiences Increase renewable energy installation, especially for low ECON Health and Social Services income homes Diversify energy ECON Regulate businesses to include climate change ECON consideration—both carrot and stick Share information and support on low cost things people ECON can do—more outreach—to save water and energy Place new renewable energy development and other NR Natural Resources development on already degraded and fragmented lands. Use bioswales, permeable pavement, and other INF Natural Resources approaches to reduce flood risk to homes Look at new technologies in using treated wastewater for INF Natural Resources use High water and energy prices are ok -they lead to INF Natural Resources innovation and technology, but need to protect low income residents More xeriscaping INF Natural Resources Look into using more untreated water for landscaping INF Natural Resources applications Expand catchment INF Natural Resources Increase pervious surfaces INF Natural Resources Modernize the hydropower facility to optimize NR Natural Resources production and move it closer to Reeder, so that water flows the entire distance between Reeder and Granite Street. Identify what level of flood risk to plan for—50 year, 100 INF Natural Resources year, 500 year? Make water conservation a top priority ECON Natural Resources Let homeowners know how they rate in their community NR Natural Resources for water use. Post the median value for water use each month on the city website so folks can track their own progress. Increase water conservation (residential and agriculture) NR Natural Resources to keep water in streams. Reduce building in high risk areas (such as forest interface TRIG Urban Form, Land Use, and and flood zones) Transportation, Natural Resources INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu After floods, move development rather than TRIG Urban Form, Land Use, and reconstructing in high risk areas Transportation, Natural Resources New homes in high risk areas should pay for protection TRIG Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation Developers need information and guidance on the INF Urban Form, Land Use, and conditions to expect in the future as well as how to plan Transportation for those and build to new standards Plant more trees for shade and air quality ECON Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation Proactively discuss equity and disadvantaged populations EQ Health and Social Systems in all City planning processes, rather than afterwards Implement financial strategies to allow low income home EQ Health and Social Systems owners to upgrade energy systems Develop system of cooling stations in convenient EQ Health and Social Systems locations and public areas Develop a renewable energy economy with high quality EQ Health and Social Systems jobs Create more public spaces with AC(cooling centers) HEA Health and Social Systems G, EOS INSTITUTE l �������1�I�Nlllllll4l�1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 Table 4. Urban Form, Land Use, and Transportation recommendations for climate change "solutions" (both mitigation and adaptation). Reduce building in high risk areas (such as forest interface TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural and flood zones) Resources After floods, move development rather than TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural reconstructing in high risk areas Resources New homes in high risk areas should pay for protection TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural Resources Support more local food production to reduce INF Natural Resources distribution and emissions associated with consumption Improve options for alternative transportation INF Expand RVTD INF Create public transportation linkages and plan for TRIG Health and Social Services emergency situations and evacuation. Expand road upgrading and maintenance such as larger TRIG culverts and regular culvert cleanouts to reduce washouts during flooding. High school programs to support electric cars, renewable INF energy,etc. Electric buses for tourists and residents INF Developers need information and guidance on the INF Buildings and Energy conditions to expect in the future as well as how to plan for those and build to new standards. Make school buses available in summer for other EQ purposes. Closely monitor effectiveness of fire activities to NR determine best use of funds for protecting lives and structures. Choose robust plants and trees,climate adapted for ECON future conditions. Plant more trees for shade and air quality ECON Buildings and Energy Natural pest predators to reduce the need for pesticides, ECON Health and Social Services, herbicides Natural Resources Include climate change projections and information in INFR EVERY planning process—plan for future range of variability and future conditions Increase regional coordination in planning INFR �%99///////9/ IIIIIIIIII INSTITUTE DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»u»»»»»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvmUrrrrrarrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Increase coordination and implementation of riparian NR Natural Resources renewal - reduce invasive species and increase native species. Rehydrate the watershed by creating beaver-like NR Natural Resources structures and/or introducing beavers. Place thinned trees (logs)touching the ground NR Natural Resources perpendicular to slope to hold moisture and create rehydration of watershed. Enforce the City's riparian ordinance. Retain dead trees NR Natural Resources for fish and wildlife. Trim the vegetation on Neil Creek near the airport to NR Natural Resources ensure a low canopy cover for shade, while also meeting airport requirements. Implement a multi-decade riparian restoration effort NR Natural Resources from the headwaters down to heal the streams in time to reduce extreme damage in the future. Restored riparian vegetation will likely encourage beaver activity in lower reaches that should help the effort.This will not necessarily provide a significant benefit for stream shading (many go dry in summer) but would be about reducing future damage. Map and protect remnant spring and wetland habitats NR Natural Resources within the city limits, and advocate for their protection throughout the watershed Restore fish passage at Granite Street Dam to allow NR, INF Natural Resources native migratory fish to use Ashland Creek up to Reeder where there is cold water habitat for winter steelhead. Continue to improve passage throughout the creek, NR Natural Resources especially for juvenile fish to help them utilize this cold water source. Some sites include the weir at Caldera, Smith-Meyer-Roper diversion, and city culverts. Support restoration of fish passage for all life stages of NR Natural Resources fish in mainstream Bear Creek leading to Ashland, and in the tributaries in/above Ashland to help give native migratory fish the best chance of surviving long term. Identify what level of flood risk to plan for—50 year, 100 INF Buildings and energy, Natural year, 500 year? Resources Increase and strengthen efforts to protect water quality INF Natural Resources in streams and rivers Upgrade culverts to benefit fish—right size INF Natural Resources Plan road crossing for larger storm events, on Ashland INF Natural Resources Creek and Bear Creek, improve fish passage ''" ��� r%/iiiiaa//////%%%////%%%1UIIIIIIIIIIIIII(IIIIIIIII INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulll�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,r ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,r,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, mmmiiiimiaaadaaiimmum////%//////////iiimmmimiimiimmnllll!!!!!!!!!!!( iiiiiaiiiiiiii000iaaarrrma..... aaimamrri ,•"••••• ••••••••• »»»»»nnrrmu«rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnm ,,,a,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aaiaooioi ,,...... ����� ®rmrcrrrrrrrrrrrwvm� Urrrrra�rrry vvvroomuuaarooinnooiuuu Improve irrigation coordination (through WISE project NR Natural Resources and other projects). Increase canopy cover along streams to cool the water. NR Natural Resources Decommission roads to reduce sedimentation in streams NR Natural Resources during large storms. Support farmers in helping them conserve water ECON Natural Resources Reduce building in high risk areas (such as forest interface TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural and flood zones) Resources After floods, move development rather than TRIG Buildings and Energy, Natural reconstructing in high risk areas Resources New homes in high risk areas should pay for protection TRIG Buildings and Energy Developers need information and guidance on the INF Buildings and Energy conditions to expect in the future as well as how to plan for those and build to new standards Plant more trees for shade and air quality ECON Buildings and Energy Invest in public transportation to make it more EQ Health and Social Systems convenient and abundant Change land use codes to reduce building in high risk HEA Health and Social Systems areas (such as forest interface and flood zones) Need to have an evacuation plan for pets and livestock HEA Health and Social Systems Table S. Consumption and Materials Management recommendations for climate change "solutions" (both mitigation and adaptation). ---------------------- a - i - Install water bottle fill stations in City buildings City INSTITUTE ,l 111111111�������1�I���Nlllllll4l�����1111111111111111111111111111111 uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul�l�l�000unnnnnu _.. DRAFT Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ashland and the Rogue Valley,August 2016 Table 6. OTHER recommendations for climate change "solutions" (both mitigation and adaptation). IIII III III II I II � u � 141 roru➢ — �"umu:.6 . .+, i piu1°�Yfii"i��m'x;iu, �uiu�uii�u mmi III u ud�u i u� uum�uu�uuuiuuuuuuum�uui luuuu�fii uuuuuuuuuuuuu�u uu�um�uu mfl�uuuuuuuuuum uuoi i i um�uu�m�um mou Need more information on what the changes mean on ECON the ground—more specific estimates of risk Show people clearly what the future looks like,where we ECON are headed Develop specific estimates of risk ECON Calculate business thresholds and impacts ECON Expand tourist season to include spring and winter as TRIG summer becomes hotter and longer Incorporate climate change preparedness consideration TRIG in ALL current and future public and private plans and policies Utilize scenario planning approaches to dealing with TRIG uncertainty Expand planning to regional and Basin scale instead of TRIG forest, county,or city scale and constantly coordinate and find ways to create co-benefits Expand participation on planning and decision-making TRIG teams to include people representing different stakeholders and other regions that are likely to also be affected by climate change Improve data gathering and monitoring to generate TRIG timely information on rate,trajectory, and consequences of climate change. 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Justification: We are looking at doing some dramatic change which will no doubt be a sacrifice for many. If we are successful it is critical others know of it. Hopefully we will help Oregon be a leader, and this will inspire the U.S. to be a leader and this will inspire other countries to take climate change seriously. If the nations of the world do not take on this challenge, we will experience the worst effects of climate change during this century. If we do take on consumption, we may be the first City in the Northwest to take this on and be totally carbon neutral by 2047. This could inspire other cities. In my recent research on Carbon offsets I learned that Obama administration just put in place last July a rule that addresses methane emissions from almost all landfills in the U.S. That is very good news. Certainly Eugene inspired us to have our city operations be carbon neutral much sooner than the community. Our State has already taken the lead on climate change in many ways: 1. Oregon is going to close its only coal plant in 2020. 2. Oregon is the first state in the nation to pledge to be free of all electricity coming from coal both in and out of state by 2035. 3. In 2016 Oregon expanded its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to have 50% of its electricity from large utilities come from Non-hydro Renewables by 2040. Smaller utilities have similar but smaller requirements. 4. When the RPS was passed in 2007,only 2 percent of Oregon's electricity needs were met through renewables;today, it's 15 percent in 2016.The RPS has spurred utility investment in renewable resources in Oregon and neighboring states. 5. Under the Oregon's RPS, renewable resources such as wind,solar, micro-hydro,offshore wind, biomass,and more are helping the state generate and use renewable power.The biggest jump has been in wind power,which increased from 1.38%in 2007 to 5.92%in 2015.