Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutComp Plan CH 05Chapter 5 Population Projections and Growth Sections: 5.01 Introduction 5.02 Historic Growth, 1850 to 1940 5.03 Population Growth 1950 to 1970 5.04 Growth from 1970 to 1980 5.05 Growth Since 1980 5.06 SOSC's Student Population 5.07 Population Projections 5.08 Past Projections 5.09 Population Projection Methods 5.10 Jackson County and Ashland Demographics 5.11 Four Projections to the year 2005 5.12 Natural Increase 5.13 Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University 5.14 Woods & Poole Economics 5.15 Fregonese & Reid 5.16 Official Projection 5.17 The Tourist Population 5.18 The Population of Ashland's Environs 5.19 School Enrollment 5.20 Ethnic Background of Ashland 5.21 Income Levels 5.22 Conclusions 5.23 Growth and Carrying Capacity 5.24 Assumptions 5.25 Goal 5.26 Policies 5.27 Tables Section 5.01 Introduction A community's population change constitutes an important part of a comprehensive plan. Housing, economic growth, public services, and land requirement projections are based on population size and characteristics. Unfortunately, the projection of population changes for a small community is difficult. Factors that influence growth or decline, notably migration, are unpredictable, and outside local government control. A reasonably accurate growth range in Ashland can be projected, however, and our community's plans built around this projection. This chapter examines Ashland's historic population growth and discusses the changes that have occurred, primarily during the last 30 years. Four projections, covering four different sets of assumptions for future growth will be discussed. The projections will address population numbers and age composition. Community income and ethnic aspects will be examined, and finally, policies relating to population changes will be defined. Section 5.02 Historic Growth, 1850 to 1940 Ashland began in 1851 with the settlement of pioneers in the area now occupied by the Plaza, at the site of what had been a Shasta Indian village. By 1860 the population was 327, with men outnumbering women 2 to 1. By 1880 Ashland had 842 people and was one of the region's larger communities. The railroad's arrival in 1887 created the town's first growth boom, and by 1890 the population had more than doubled to 1,784. It continued to grow to 2,634 by 1900. Between 1900 and 1910 the city and region prospered and the population almost doubled to 5,020 by 1910. Ashland's population then declined as Medford became the largest regional city and the railroad routed their main lines through Klamath Falls in the 1920's. In 1920 Ashland's population had fallen to 4283, but grew slightly to 4,554 by 1930, and to 4,774 by 1940. The population, therefore, hovered between 4,000 and 5000 for 40 years, from 1905, through two world wars and the Great Depression, until 1945. [See graph titled "Ashland's population, 1860 to 1940" on Comp. Plan page V-1] Section 5.03 Population Growth 1950 to 1970 The post war years and the timber industry's emergence as southern Oregon's economical mainstay stimulated Ashland's growth and the population almost doubled in 20 years from 7,739 in 1950 to 9,119 in 1960, reaching 12,342 in 1970. In the 1950's the town contained a number of lumber mills, and the tourist industry began to slowly develop around the Shakespeare Festival. Also during this period, Ashland acquired a characteristic it retains today, an unusually large percentage of young persons between the ages of 18 and 25, a result of Southern Oregon State College's rapid expansion during this period. The increase in college age persons due to the "baby boom," and an increased emphasis on college education expanded SOSC's enrollment from 1,294 in 1960 to 4,230 in 1970. This increase was accompanied by a shift in the community age profile. Of the 4,600 population increase from 1950 to 1970, 52% was between the ages of 15 and 25. The total population percentage between 15 and 25 was 16% in 1950, and by 1970 it was 29% of the population. The approximately 3,000 students who attend SOSC and live in the city limits gives Ashland its characteristic age profile, and will continue to influence the city in the future. [See graph titled "1950 and 1970 Population: The population changes from 1950 to 1970 were largely caused by an increase in the student aged population of the City." on Comp. Plan page V-2] Section 5.04 Growth from 1970 to 1980 The 1970's saw heavy migration to Oregon from other states. Oregon's population grew by 25%, an increase of nearly 600,000 persons -- about 375,000 of that number due to migration. Migrants between 25 and 40 years of age, who accounted for 48% of the influx, and persons 0 to 15 (probably the adult migrant's children) compromising another 28%. The 'baby boom' generation migrants and their children accounted for 76% of migration to Oregon and about 50% of the total population increase during the 1970's. Ashland's population grew in an even more exaggerated pattern than the State's. Of the approximately 2,600 population increase during the 1970's, over 1900 (75%) were between the ages 25 to 40. There was little change, however, in the children's age group. The freshman college student age category (15 to 19) declined by 152. Young students' large influx into Ashland in the 1960's and young adults in the 1970's gave Ashland a decidedly different community character than surrounding southern Oregon areas. [See graph titled "1970 and 1980 Population: Population changes from 1970 to 1980 reflect the heavy migration of 'baby boom' adults to Ashland during this time." on Comp. Plan page V-3] Section 5.05 Growth Since 1980 The recession that struck Oregon in 1980 affected growth in Ashland. The population of the community grew little from 1980 to 1985, compared with the previous three decades. However, a recovering state and national economy has attracted new migrants. As in the past, each new wave of migrants has unique characteristics, and the current group appears older and wealthier, choosing the community for its quality of life. The City projects that the population at the end of 1989 will be 16,702. [See graph titled "1980 and 1989 Population: The 1980's have brought more persons over 65, but most migration is still from people born between 1940 and 1955, and their children." on Comp. Plan page V-3] While the 1,780 new residents had the smallest increase since the decade of the 1930's, there have been significant changes to the population makeup. The number of children aged 0 to 14 increased by about 300, implying both that migrants of the 1960's and 1970's are having children later in life, and that the new migrants are bringing children to Ashland. The number of people aged 15 to 29, the college age sector in the population profile, decreased by about 680, reflecting the trend for older students to attend the college. (The median student age is now 28.) The group from 35 to 50 in age increased by almost 1,200. Persons over 60 increased by about 780. These shifts reflect the aging resident population of the "baby boom" population and the migration of persons aged 65 and over. Presumably coming to Ashland to retire, this last age group's number is significant, but often over-estimated. The group responsible for the largest population increases since the decade of the 1960's were born between 1940 and 1955. Section 5.06 SOSC's Student Population SOSC's population comes largely from the Southern Oregon area. In 1988, 58% of the students were from Jackson County, 76% were from the seven county Southern Oregon area, and 88% were from Oregon. We assume that SOSC enrollment will continue to grow proportionately to the 15 to 30 year old population group -- the group most likely to attend the institution. [See chart titled "SOSC's student population, by county of origin." on Comp Plan page V-4] Section 5.07 Population Projections The methodology used in population projections greatly affects their outcomes. The least accurate methods simply use trend analysis on past population change and project the past tendencies into the future. Although this method is quick it does not consider the various factors affecting population changes. Because unusual short-range changes are influenced by factors not continuously present, it is wiser to base projection on factors that influence population growth, rather than on gross, aggregate numerical shifts over time. Sophisticated and accurate methods for projections use the basic factors affecting population change. The problem in using this method for Ashland is that population changes tend to be more volatile in a small city, and forecasts less reliable because of the small sample size. Migration to Jackson County would be clearly based on economic assumptions, while the location where people settled in the county would be based on factors more difficult to predict, such as price and availability of housing. Detailed city population data is often unavailable, and national projects are usually done for larger regions than Ashland. One option open to the City of Ashland is to use population projections for Jackson County and to assume that Ashland will retain its relative size to the county in the future. There appears to be some consistency to Ashland's percentage of county population. From 1900 to 1920 Ashland accounted for 20% of county population. In 1930 it dropped to 14% of county population and remained at about 13% from 1940 to 1970. In 1980 it fell again to 11.5 %. Ashland has remained at this percentage through the 1980's. It appears that Ashland will remain at about 11.5 % of county population projections. Section 5.08 Past Projections Ashland's 1982 comprehensive plan used a projection based on the growth experienced from 1940 through 1980. A straight-line projection was made of this growth pattern, yielding an estimated population of 18,000 in 1990 and 21,000 in 2000. This figure was used for many of the city's public facilities plans and for determining the size of the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). While it appears that the projected growth rate was too high, this projection has an unexpected benefit -- these plans and the UGB will be valid a few more years than was expected. Section 5.09 Population Projection Methods The population projections discussed in this plan use a methodology called cohort component analysis. This method makes estimates based on the three main factors affecting population change: birth rate, death rate, and migration rate. The most stable of these is the death rate, which is based on the long-term health of a community. This rate changes slowly, mostly due to medical advances, increased public sanitation, and amount of environmental pollution. Short-range changes can also occur due to natural disaster, epidemics, and wars or civil unrest, rare in the United States and unpredictable in any case. The birth rate is more volatile, especially since the advent of convenient and reliable birth control methods. While birth rates in the 1960's and the 1980's have changed, the rates appear to have stabilized recently, and may indicate a long-range stability. Migration is the most unpredictable component and the most important for Ashland. Analysis of Ashland's historical population data indicates that major population changes in Ashland have always been caused by migration, from pioneer days to the recent migration of "baby boomers." Most migration predictions are economically based -- assumed to happen in response to the availability or lack of local jobs. Ashland has not always followed this pattern. A significant migration in recent years has been attracted to the community for education, theater and the existing quality of life, instead of economic opportunity. Migration assumptions are always the most important part of a projection and may radically affect the estimate. Most important to remember is that forecasts are not predictions of the future. They are analyses of historic data, and explain future conditions based on certain assumptions. They are reliable only to the point that their assumptions about the future are correct. Although the future can rarely be predicted, the land use planning process can both guide the future and flexibly respond to changes we cannot control. Section 5.10 Jackson County and Ashland Demographics As indicated above, the population projections used in this plan were actually made for Jackson County. Projections for Ashland assume that Ashland will remain 11.5 % of Jackson County population and that we will retain current SOSC student population levels. The student population results in a disproportionate amount of people in the age groups 15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25 to 29. With this student population number removed, Ashland's remaining population age distribution is similar to that of Jackson County. [See graph titled "Differences: Ashland vs. Jackson County in 1980" on Comp. Plan page V6] Section 5.11 Four Projections to the year 2005 The following four projections are made using four different models. Based on various assumptions, each model yields disparate results. However, the planning process requires that one population projection method is consistently used to determine the plan requirements, and the rest indicate only other possible directions the city may take. Section 5.12 Natural Increase The first projection is for illustrative purposes only. It represents what would happen if Ashland were a closed system, that is, if there were no migration in or out of the community. The birth and death rates are those of Jackson County in 1986. If this continued Ashland's population would increase from the current 16,310 to 17,705 by 2005. Ashland's population would level off about 2008 and begin a gradual decline. The major demographic changes include a distinct aging of the population, with a population shift from those aged 35 to 50 to those 45 to 60. This projection is a theoretical reference point to compare other population forecasts. Differences in the age groups between this and other projections will indicate migration. If only natural increases were to influence the population growth, Ashland would increase to 17,705 by the year 2005. Section 5.13 Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University In 1984 The Center for Population Research at Portland State University published projections for all Oregon counties through the year 2000. In this document the projections have been extended to the year 2005. The Portland State birth and death rate assumptions were similar to those used in the projection for natural increase only, while the migration assumptions were based on Oregon in the 1970's. The projections assumed that Oregon would experience effects of the early 1980's recession until 1985, when migration would then resume at the rates and the population profile of the 1970's. This projection has been close to actual data in terms of a population increase as of 1988, however the Portland State population projection has been slightly lower than the actual amount now estimated for 1988 in Jackson County. This is because of two assumptions made by the Portland State projections -- the migration group age profile, and the economic recession effects of the 1980's. [See graph titled "1989 Population and 2005 Natural Increase Projection" on Comp. Plan page V-7] As indicated above, the Portland State projection assumed that migration would continue as it had in the 1970's. While in the 1970's 76% of the migration was by persons aged 25 to 39, and their children aged 0 to 14, this group's migration to Jackson County had dropped to 62% in the 1980's. Twenty six percent of all migrants to the area in the 1980's were over 65 years of age. Currently 11% of the west coast population is over 65. In 1980 Ashland's over-65 population was 13% and rose to almost 15% by 1988. The Portland State projection tends to overestimate the migration of younger groups. Because the error is in a population segment that continues to have children, the resulting disparity compounds in future years as newly arrived migrants continue to add new children to the population. The projections also overestimated the effects of the 1981-1982 recession and underestimated Jackson County population through 1989. While the county's 1985 population was to have been 135,170 in 1985 due to a lack of job opportunity, it actually reached 137,900 that year. The projections assumed a rapid growth from 1985 to 1988 with a population increase of almost 6,800. Actual population increase was 5,700. The projection's rate of growth, because of these two errors, is greater than actually experienced in the 1980's and the population profile overestimates migration of persons 25 to 40, and underestimates migration of persons over 65. If these projections were to prove accurate, Ashland population would increase to 21,772 by 2005. [See graph titled "1989 Population and 2005 Portland State Projection" on Comp. Plan page V-7] Section 5.14 Woods & Poole Economics Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. is a Washington, D.C. firm that has developed a large computer model for the United States. The model contains historic census data, and makes projections to the year 2010. The method used is to model population growth on natural increase, and migration based on job creation. Job creation is estimated by several factors such as industry type, past success at creating new jobs, and others. The model contains 42 million numbers in its matrix and balances the projections across the country, so that changes in one region are reflected in another. This sophisticated model projects a slower rate of growth for Jackson County and Ashland. Population in Ashland would be little larger than by natural increase in the year 2005 -- 17,906. However, Jackson County is already exceeding the Woods & Poole Economics growth rate. The projection, based on 1986 data, forecasted 142,760 in 1988, while the current estimate is 143,000. While this is not a large discrepancy, Woods & Poole Economics forecast a relatively slow growth rate in the 1990's and into the first few years of the new century. New job creation in Jackson County is expected to climb slowly, from about 67,000 today to 80,000 in 2005 -- an increase of less than 20%. Of the new jobs, 67% would be in retail trade and services and only 14% in manufacturing. [See graph titled "1989 Population and 2005 Woods & Poole Projection" on Comp. Plan page V-8] The Woods & Poole Economics projections exhibit some weaknesses. Population increase is low, even when compared with the relatively low job creation. In fact they are almost equal. For Jackson County, Woods & Poole Economics forecast an increase of 13,863 in population between 1988 and 2005, while there would be 13,420 net new jobs. The Woods & Poole Economics forecast, compared with natural increase, would predict a substantial net immigration of persons aged 15 to 34, traditionally the highest group of immigrants to the area. Section 5.15 Fregonese & Reid The final projection was developed by John Fregonese and Rebecca Reid. This projection is not based on a large-scale model and does not use economic modeling as its base, as did the Woods & Poole Economics and Portland State models. It assumes that the current birth and death rates in Jackson County will be constant, and that immigration will remain at the same number and demographic profile of the period 1983 to 1988. Using these assumptions, Ashland's population would increase to 19,995 by the year 2005. The demographic profile shows current trends continuing. While this projection appears to match our most recent experience, it lacks the other two models' sophistication. However, it is more tailored to local conditions as it is based on Jackson County trends, rather than state or national trends. It is a middle ground between the high Portland State projection and the lower Woods & Poole Economics models. [See graph titled "1989 Population and 2005 Fregonese & Reid Projection" on Comp. Plan page V-9] Section 5.16 Official Projection As indicated above, the comprehensive plan requires an official projection for the city -- a consistent base for other plan elements to estimate land and service requirements. Because it is based on recent local conditions, the Fregonese and Reid projections will be used in the plan as the official projections. Periodic projection reviews will be needed, however, to accommodate changing conditions, particularly after the 1990 federal census data is available for Ashland. Section 5.17 The Tourist Population One component of Ashland's population that is often overlooked is the tourist population. While in 1970 Ashland had less than 200 rooms to accommodate travelers, and occupancy rates were below 50% annually, the success of Ashland's tourist economy has added to the local population a group of people that are here simply to enjoy the City's attractions. This population consists of constantly changing individuals, but now constitutes a significant proportion of the resident population. This population cannot be estimated exactly, but several available statistics allow us to make a reasonably close guess. The easiest statistic to gather is the number of rooms available for traveler's accommodations. This amount grew from 474 in 1980 to 873 in 1989. In addition occupancy rates grew from 42% annual occupancy rate in 1980 to a 63% annual occupancy rate in 1988. The Economic Element contains a through analysis of the visitor population, however for the purposes of this element we need only determine the additional population that is resident in hotel rooms in Ashland. A reliable statistic on number of persons per room is derived from a 1985 study conducted for the Oregon Shakespearean Festival that revealed an average party size of 2.8 for non-tour groups visiting the Shakespeare Festival. Putting these numbers together, the average daily tourist population of transients in Ashland increased from 557 in 1980 (3.7% of the total population) to 1,476 (9% of the total population) in 1988, an increase of 165% in nine years. The annual variation is also quite great, with annual occupancy peaking in August at 92% (2,248 persons) and hitting a low of 35% in January (855 persons). As a resident population, they are unique, as they have large disposable incomes, but live in tiny quarters at high densities, and only have one car per "household". When developing plans for providing services such as sewer and water, their consumption is accounted for by their accommodations such as motels, hotels, and bed and breakfast inns. Yet in other types of planning, such as for parks, their population is "invisible". It is important to remember to account for them, as they in fact form a part of the permanent population of the City. Another issue this raises is proportion. Ashland had a practically nonexistent population of transients in 1970, but by 1980 they accounted for 3.7% of the total, and for 8.4% of the total today. As this affects the character of the City and the local economic health of the community, this proportion is a good gauge to measure how much of a "tourist town" Ashland wishes to become. [See graph titled "Actual population growth from 1970 to 1989, and the three projections to 2005" on Comp. Plan page V-10.] Section 5.18 The Population of Ashland's Environs Another population group that affects Ashland is the population of the rural area surrounding Ashland. This group does not consume services such as sewer or water, but affect the capacity of transportation, parks, school, and also enlarge the market population served by Ashland businesses. It is best measured by the population living within the 97520 zip code area. In 1988 this figure was estimated to be 18,210, while Ashland's population was 16,310. This means that there were 1,900 living in the rural area surrounding Ashland. The combination of Ashland's urban growth boundary and current county zoning seem to indicate that the population increases in this area will be modest in nature. Section 5.19 School Enrollment [See graph titled "School Enrollment Historic and Projected: School Enrollment 1978 to 1990, with projections to 2005" on Comp. Plan page V-11.] School enrollment can be approximated using the age groups 5 to 9 and 10 to 14. The projections all indicate different conditions for the Ashland School District. The natural increase projection predicts a 6% decline in school enrollment. Woods & Poole Economics figures indicate a steady population of school age children. The Portland State model predicts an increase of 20% in school enrollment. The Fregonese and Reid projection predicts a 8% increase in enrollment. Using the official population forecast, Ashland School District can expect a modest increase in school population, with an increase of 269 students by the year 2005. However, most of this increase will come between the present and 1995, with 219 more students by that date. This growth is due to the aging "baby boom" generation and their continued fertility. The enrollment will peak by the year 2000, with 289 more students than in 1988, then decline gradually as the lower birthrates of the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's result in a smaller population of child-bearing adults. Section 5.20 Ethnic Background of Ashland [See graph titled "Ethnic Background of Ashland, 1970, 1980, and projections for 2005." on Comp. Plan page V-11.] Jackson County and Ashland have historically had small minority populations, with most residents of northern European descent. This ethnic mix is changing and is expected to continue to change. The largest minority group migrating to Jackson County in the future will be of Hispanic background, that is persons of Latin American descent, regardless of race. In 1970, Jackson County's population was 97% of European descent and Hispanics constituted about 1.8% of the population. By 1980 the ethnic minority population was about 4.5% with the Hispanic number almost doubling to 3% of the total. In 1988 by Woods & Poole Economics's estimate, ethnic minorities constitute about 7% of the population, and Hispanics about 5% of the total. Woods & Poole Economics predict that Hispanic migration to this area will continue, dispersing from the historical concentration of Hispanic population in southern California and the Southwest, where most Ashland immigrants come from, regardless of race. The Asian ethnic group, also concentrated on the West Coast, will migrate to Ashland in smaller numbers. By 2005 minorities will constitute 14% of Jackson County's population, and Hispanics will be 10% of the total -- most of these of Mexican descent. Another sizeable population in Jackson County is the Native American population. According to the 1980 Census, there were 1,182 Native Americans in Jackson County, however this population is often under represented in Census tabulations. Almost none of the local native tribes remain, so the Native American population is the product of migration to this area. While there is no hard data, individuals active in the local population indicate that it is increasing at a greater rate than the general population. This ethnic change will significantly affect Ashland. The city once had a sizeable Chinese population who came to work on the railroad. Some would have undoubtedly settled here, but racial hostility forced them out. While Ashland and Jackson County had significant barriers to ethnic minority migration until the civil rights laws of the 1960's, public policy and social norms can now be said to disregard color, although unfortunately some ethnic bigotry remains in the area. Ashland's Hispanic population has closely paralleled that of Jackson County in 1970 and 1980, and can be expected to have a similar percentage of Hispanics and other ethnic groups as Jackson County in the future. If this is correct, the city can expect to have a population of about 2,000 Hispanics, mostly of Mexican descent, and about 800 of other minorities, mostly Asians, by 2005. While the city has had excellent relations with its sister city, Guanajuato, Mexico, since 1969, these cultural contacts will become even more important to foster understanding and appreciation of all our ethnic backgrounds. As have past and present residents of European descent, our future citizens of Hispanic and Asian background will make their impact on Ashland in the areas of housing, art, food and education. Section 5.21 Income Levels [See chart titled "Income levels for Ashland Households, 1988" on Comp. Plan page V-12.] When household income is considered, Ashland is a relatively poor community in Oregon. While the State's mean household income in 1988 was $27,053, and Jackson County's was $25,508, Ashland's was $24,485. Ashland's median household income, $19,687, is in the state's 26th percentile. This means that almost three-quarters of cities in Oregon have a higher median household income. About 39% of Ashland's households have an income of' $15,000 or less, compared with 33% in Jackson County and 31% in Oregon. While Ashland is similar to the state and county in household percentages that earn $50,000 or more (about 10%), it is lower in households that earn $25,000 to $50,000 (27% in Ashland, 33 % in Jackson County, and 35% for Oregon). The large percentage of households in the lower income categories may be a result of the disproportionate numbers of persons aged 20 to 30 in Ashland's age profile. Section 5.22 Conclusions All population forecasts indicate that Ashland's rate of growth will be slower for the remainder of the century than it has been in the decades from 1940 to 1980. Ashland will grow to about 20,000 by the year 2005. The new population will come in three areas: persons aged 35 to 54, children younger than 14, and persons over 65. Persons ages 15 to 29 will decrease in number. Jackson County will have an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities, and this will be reflected in Ashland. While the rate of growth will slow, changes will continue to occur. The most significant will be the aging population due to three factors: a decline in the birth rate compared to the 1940's and 1950's, the aging of the population born during that time, and the migration of persons over 65 to this area. Section 5.23 Growth and Carrying Capacity Generally considered, positive aspects of a relatively consistent growth rate are a healthy and robust economy, a more cosmopolitan population, a larger variety of housing types, more cultural opportunities, more alternative sources of employment and education, and greater availability of professional services, specialized shops and repair services. Population growth, however, also may result in urban sprawl, traffic congestion, a loss of sense of community, overcrowding, deterioration of environmental quality and higher housing prices. Quality of living, not a particular city size, is the most important element to be preserved. However, it is generally con- ceded that both change in the amount of people living size and growth rate will continue to have an effect on the quality of the living environment. One of the major reasons Ashland places a great deal of effort in planning is to mitigate the effects of growth, maintaining the quality of life while accommodating an increasing population. The city's carrying capacity is frequently discussed. Limitations to growth include the quantity of water available, the Rogue Valley airshed's capacity to adsorb and disperse pollution. These two limitations assume that future water consumption and driving habits of people will not change. If water consumption per capita lowers, wood stove pollution controlled, or automotive transportation is replaced by pedestrian, bicycle, and public transit. Ashland's carrying capacity would dramatically increase and the quality of life would benefit, regardless of population changes. Some amount of growth will inevitably occur, for Ashland will probably grow in proportion to the region. Section 5.24 Assumptions Ashland will grow to about 20,000 people by the year 2005. Ashland's desirability as a place to live will tend to make housing choices expensive and limited. If corrective measures are not taken, Ashland's character could change as lower income groups are forced to live elsewhere. Many of these groups are responsible for the enviable city Ashland is today. Ashland's residents will continue to desire relatively high standards of environmental and community values. State planning law will continue to require each city and county to provide adequate land, housing economic support and services for its expected population growth, provided that such growth does not violate other state planning goals. Section 5.25 Goal To Provide For the Needs of the Expected Population Growth in Ashland to the Year 2005, and Maintain a Diversity of Income, Cultural, and Age Groups in Ashland's Population, Consistent with Other Plan Goals. Section 5.26 Policies 1. Develop a growth management strategy that will monitor Ashland's size and rate of growth. If needed, develop methods to keep the growth within the expected population projection, while accommodating the cyclical nature of growth. 2. All other plans and projections by the City should use the same population projection, for consistency of planning, unless compelling reasons exist for using alternative projections. 3. Review, and revise if necessary, the population projections after data from the 1990 Census is available. 4. Strive to maintain a diversity of population groups in Ashland, especially if increased growth pressure leads to more expensive housing. Concentrate on population groups that are important to Ashland's character, such as students, artists and actors, employees of the city, school district, and college, service personnel who work in the tourism industry, hourly wage earners in local industries, and local residents who have now retired and live on fixed incomes. 5. Strive for an equal proportion of cultural minorities as a whole in both the City's population and in municipal employment. 6. Develop a system that derives the revenue needed to pay for growth related costs from the development that is most directly responsible for the growth. Only derive the revenue from the growth that can be justified as the incremental cost that can be identified with the growth. Revenues received should only be spent on projects that will alleviate the problems associated with the growth. Take steps to reduce financial hardships caused by the growth taxing system where it adversely impacts targeted low income groups or needed economic development. 7. Monitor the proportion of tourist population to local population. Section 5.27 Tables See Comp. Plan Pages V-15 through V-19 for the following tables: 1990 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1995 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2000 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2005 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION GROWTH 1860 TO 1988 ASHLAND, JACKSON COUNTY, AND OREGON ASHLAND, POPULATION BY AGE ETHNIC BACKGROUND JACKSON COUNTY 1988 INCOME LEVELS ASHLAND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ASHLAND COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Page 11 of 11