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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1998-0818.SS.MINMINUTES FOR THE SPECIAL STUDY SESSION ASHLAND CITY COUNCIL August 18, 1998 CALL TO ORDER Mayor Shaw called the meeting to order at 6:09 p.m., at the Civic Center Council Chambers. IN ATTENDANCE Councilors Reid, Hauck, Hagen, Wheeldon and DeBoer were present. Staff present included: City Administrator Mike Freeman, Assistant City Administrator Greg Scoles, Administrative Services Director Richard Wanderscheid, City Attorney Paul Nolte, Public Works Director Paula Brown, and Director of Community Development John McLaughlin. STATUS REPORT/PRESENTATION ON THE DRAFT WATER MASTER PLAN Public Works Director Paula Brown presented the City's consultant on this project, Ken Wilkins of Carollo Engineers. Brown explained that this presentation was to serve as a check-in on the status of the project to date. Also noted that the date for a decision on the Talent-Ashland-Phoenix (TAP) Water Intertie Project has been pushed back until December of 1998. Brown noted that several members of the informal Water Advisory Group (WAG) were present in the audience, and explained that the WAG had held several productive meetings. Stated that public forums were tentatively scheduled for September 24th and October 8th, but emphasized that these dates could change and that more forums could be added if they were necessary. Brown concluded that Wilkins would update the Council on the project status, explain factors that would influence project decisions, and note where the project would be going from here. At Mayor Shaw's request, Brown explained that the document presented to Council was a draft and not in a final, public format. Clarified that a decision on the entire TAP intertie project is not needed until December of 1998, and so she would like to have a decision on Ashland's participation by November of 1998. Ken Wilkins of Carollo Engineers provided some background information, noting that previous plans have indicated the need for additional water supply sources in the past. This project is intended to update the work from previous plans and explore alternatives that are currently available to the City. Emphasized that work is underway. Noted that he would be explaining work done to date, and what will need to be done in the coming months. City Administrator Mike Freeman explained that the project is now far enough along to let the Council know about the methodology being used and the underlying assumptions, and get the Council's approval to continue with the evaluation. Freeman emphasized that the underlying assumptions drive everything, and they need to be accepted by the Council before the project moves further. Wilkins explained that the staff report to Council excerpted a draft technical memorandum from Carollo, and emphasized that he could provide the complete document at Council's request to clarify things. Noted that he would welcome questions during the presentation. Wilkins briefly explained that the work being done involved identifying capacity of the supply and projecting future demands to determine the deficit that would exist over time. With this in mind, supply alternatives will be evaluated to meet the deficit, and a preferred alternative will be identified. Emphasized that the project has a strong public component, and that they are working with the WAG, and have public forums scheduled later in the project. Noted that the work is essentially a straightforward look at supply and demand, based on a comparison of the worst case drought scenario supply to the projected future demand. Explained that this was accomplished by looking at a current baseline per capita consumption rate, and determining future demand based on population projections. The worst case drought scenario was identified by looking at the City's history. Ashland City Council Special Study Session Minutes 08-18-98 1 Explained that demand for the '96-'97 Water Year indicated an average per capita consumption of 148 gallons per capita per day (gpcd). Future demand was then projected from this number. Noted that the City's demand has followed this trend for 3-4 years, and Carollo feels it is a reasonable basis for projections as conservation measures initiated in 1992 have had time to take effect and are reflected in the demand. Also noted that this demand compares to other cities with a similar combination of population, mixed commercial/residential make-up, and climatic conditions. Emphasized that these numbers are important as they affect the final determination of a future deficit. Explained that while there may be some further decrease in demand due to conservation measures, further decreases would be difficult to quantify for the time horizon involved. Councilor Hagen asked for clarification on California communities mentioned in previous discussions which had demand closer to 110 gpcd. Wilkins explained that these numbers were for South San Francisco, and while its make-up is similar to Ashland, the number was strictly for residential use. System-wide it would be closer to 125 gpcd. Also emphasized that the climate there is much cooler in the summer, and there is much less need for outdoor water usage. Mayor Shaw requested numbers from the cities of Walnut Creek and Lafayette, as these communities are more similar in climate and conservation measures to Ashland. Wilkins stated that he could get these numbers, but that he assumes they would be close to 150 gpcd. Councilor Wheeldon requested that any numbers provided include combined commercial and residential figures. Wilkins confirmed that the 148 gpcd for Ashland includes both commercial and residential figures, and also takes into account variables such as system leaks and inaccuracies in water meters. Councilor Reid questioned how the figures being discussed would differ from those projected by Synergic Resources Corporation (SRC) in their study for the City. Administrative Services Director Dick Wanderscheid stated that he believes SRC used figures from R.W. Beck, Inc., which were not a gallons per capita per day demand figure. Wilkins said that his feeling was that at the time of that study, the number would have been closer to 175 or even 180 gpcd, as it was prior to the implementation of conservation measures. Stated that conservation measures have been successful and had significant effect on demand. Wilkins continued that the consultants are working with the WAG, and are looking at underlying assumptions. Emphasized that if they err on the wrong side, the error is compounded over time. Consequences are more severe if the estimate is low, and if it is high it merely extends available capacity as insurance beyond the original planning horizon. Explained that scenarios are looking at a time horizon to 2020 and 2050, and are looking at growth rates of 1.0% and 1.4 %. The difference in these growth rates is significant as it is projected over a 50 year period. Councilor DeBoer questioned whether projected demand included no further reduction for conservation efforts, and Wilkins confirmed that no further reduction was projected. City Administrator Mike Freeman asked for population numbers at the end of the time horizon in 2050. Wilkins noted that with a 1.4% growth rate, the population would be roughly 35,000 by 2050, which he said was a reasonable figure. With a 1.0% growth rate, population would be a little over 29,000. Wilkins explained that in determining supply, they had looked at historical precipitation amounts and stream flow figures, and concluded that 1930-31 was the City's worst drought. Noted that there were severe drought periods in 1976-77 and in the 1990's, but there was no USGS gauge data for the 1990's. With this in mind, the figures for 1030-31 were used as a base for the worst case scenario. Councilor Hauck questioned calculating a potential deficit based on a comparison of worst case supply versus the largest projected population, and asked how this methodology would compare to previous studies and planning eflbrts. Wilkins stated that they were similar, but not the same. 1930-31 conditions have about a 1% chance of o occurrence in any given year, whereas the conditions used by R.W. Beck had a 2 Vo likelihood in a given year. Wilkins continued by emphasizing that the undersized reservoir is the weak link in the current system. The project is looking at how the reservoir's capacity would fair under the worst historical conditions. Emphasized that Ashland City Council Special Study Session Minutes 08-18-98 2 conditions could potentially be worse than the historical worst case. Wilkins stated that this study is more conservative than those done in the past, but that there is not a great gain in supply for 1% likelihood versus 2%. The more conservative methodology would merely buy a little more cushion. Wilkins presented a graph illustrating supply shortfalls for 2050 population projections. If growth were 1.4%, there would be an 800 million gallon deficit in a drought, versus a 400 million gallon deficit for 1.0% growth figures. Explained that the difference in deficits for the two possible growth rates will begin to become noticeable in 2020. The reservoir is simply not big enough to meet future needs, and this is not an uncommon problem for older storage facilities. Presented a supply analysis graph which showed demand versus total supply, month by month for the 1% growth rate. Explained that this was a dynamic model looking at all variables, including TID water and the reservoir. Noted that because of reservoir capacity, water is lost from the system when it overflows into the Creek. Presented the same analysis for the end of the planning horizon, noting that while the system produces a lot of water, there are many deficit periods toward the end of the time horizon, which will mean a substantial deficit. Emphasized that during the summer months, drought conditions could drain the reservoir in 1-2 months. Wilkins stated that based on the same analysis, the deficit could be shaved off enough to squeak by with 25% demand curtailment in the summer. Emphasized that while curtailment has many advantages, it is at best fragile to plan based on curtailment efforts. If curtailment targets are missed, it leaves you in a much worse situation than had been planned. Explained further that 25% curtailment for the months of May through September would bring the total demand to 128 gpcd, representing a 13% total reduction. This is a significant amount when looked at in the planning process, as it could mean a difference of as much as 30 gpcd. Mayor Shaw questioned numbers from previous periods of curtailment in Ashland. Wilkins noted that demand was not significantly reduced by curtailment during the past 3 years. Mayor Shaw emphasized the need to look at numbers from past curtailment efforts. Administrative Services Director Dick Wanderscheid stated that the years to look at would be 1992 and 1994. Stated that Finance Director Jill Turner should be able to provide numbers for the curtailment period in 1992. Councilor Reid asked whether there would be a later presentation to complete the information being presented. Wilkins explained that the consultants are working with the WAG to address the issues raised, and to find assumptions that the Council can live with. Stated that they will come back to Council with more information at a later date. Mayor Shaw emphasized the need to look at accurate curtailment numbers from similar California cities, and suggested that the cities of Walnut Creek or Lafayette, California would be good examples to use in looking at worst case projections. Wilkins stated that in general, 10% curtailment represents voluntary curtailment measures, and 25% curtailment is at the upper limit of rationing. Noted the difficulty in using greater curtailment figures in planning. Mayor Shaw noted her concern about planning for a worst case, if it would occur only occur rarely, without looking at projected responses to curtailment. Recognized that scenarios are once in a great while, and that weather patterns are changing, but stated that she would like to look at the possible eft~:cts of curtailment on the demand numbers for the worst case scenario. Wilkins stated that curtailment must be factored into long-term planning, and that to be effective curtailment must be implemented before a period of greatest need is reached. Councilor Reid questioned if the projections were taking into account the mandated necessary water reserves required for fire suppression. Wilkins stated that these reserves have been looked at, and that it looks like the City is in good shape in that respect. Emphasized the difference between storage and distribution within the City's water system. Ashland City Council Special Study Session Minutes 08-18-98 Wilkins stated that they have looked at alternatives including conservation, reclamation, alternate supplies, alternate sources, and additional storage. Noted that additional storage in 1998 is not realistic alternative, for a variety of reasons. Stated that the next steps were to look at issues of technical feasibility, and "soft" issues such as environmental concerns, interagency agreements, socio-economic factors, and costs. From there, alternatives will be ranked to identify the preferred option. Emphasized that this will involve the public input process. Explained that this would involve confirming demand assumptions, working on supply alternatives, and refining the project. Stated that the public process will be initiated, and that they will bring more refined information back in an update for the Council. Councilor DeBoer asked whether the consultants are looking at the potential failure of the water system based on the potential of a catastrophic fire in the watershed. Wilkins stated that this would be addressed, and that there were water source possibilities such as treating groundwater from wells. Stated that the primary concern was to look at the reliability of these possible sources. Councilor Hagen pointed out the need to focus on the difference between indoor and outdoor water usage. Urged that the public be made aware of this issue. Mayor Shaw raised the issue of in-fill that occurs with growth, which would mean smaller yards and reduced domestic water usage with the 1.4% growth rate. Suggested that consultants try' to be sensitive to such issues in their demand analysis. Wilkins stated that they have looked at this issue, and are looking at curtailment and water usage. Councilor Hagen re-emphasized the need to communicate the difference between indoor and outdoor water usage to the public. ADJOURNED The meeting was adjourned at 7:00 p.m. /]~ubmitted by Derek Severson, Assistant to the City Recorder Ashland City Council Special Study Session Minutes 08-18-98