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BEFORE THE CITY COUNCIL
CITY OF ASHLAND, JACKSON COUNTY, OREGON
December 16, 2008
In the Matter of a Request for a Conditional Use Permit )
and Site Review Approval To Construct a New 592 Square Foot ) FINDINGS OF FACT
Accessory Residential Unit above a Proposed Two- Vehicle Garage) CONCLUSIONS OF LAW
for the Property Located at 960 Harmony Lane, within the City ) AND ORDER
of Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon [PA #2008-00801] )
Applicant: Bill Emerson, Agent for Jendrisack and Berry )
I. NATURE OF PROCEEDINGS
This matter comes before the City Council for the City of Ashland for a de novo appeal hearing.
The appeal is from an October 14, 2008 decision of the City of Ashland Planning Commission
Hearing Board approving inter alia a request for a conditional use permit and site review
approval to construct a 592 square foot accessory residential unit above a proposed two story
garage for property located at 960 Harmony Lane.
The application was filed by the applicant with the Planning Department on May 19,2008. The
application was deemed complete on June 18, 2008. Notice of Preliminary approval was
mailed on June 18, 2008 and published on June 28, 2008. The application was called up to
public hearing on June 27, 2008. The concerns raised were the lack of paved access through the
alley, generation of noise, light and glare, similarity in scale, bulk and coverage, and the storm
water plan. A written sixty day extension of the 120 day deadline was submitted by the
applicant. [Deadline is December 16, 2008.] Notification of the de novo public hearing before the
Planning Commission Hearing Board on August 12, 2008, was mailed on July 23, 2008 pursuant
to Chapter 18, Ashland Land Use Ordinance to area property owners and affected public
agencies. Notice of the August 12, 2008, hearing was also published in the Ashland Daily
Tidings on August 2, 2008.
On August 12, 2008, the Planning Commission Hearing Board conducted a public hearing and
considered the oral and written testimony presented, the staff report and the record as a whole.
At the conclusion of the hearing a neighbor Ronald Doyle, 945 Hillview Drive, one of the parties
who had participated in the hearing, requested that the record be held open for seven days, and
the applicants requested an additional seven days to respond with final written argument.
The requests were granted, the record was left open and final argument was required to be
submitted after the record closed. Deliberations were continued to the September 9,2008
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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meeting. On September 9,2008, the Planning Commission Hearings Board considered the
record, including the evidence submitted by the opponents and the argument submitted by the
applicant, and approved the application subject to conditions pertaining to the appropriate
development of the site. On October 14, 2008, the Findings, Conclusions, and Order of City's
Planning Commission Hearing Board were aPk")rov~~ and dul si ed by the Chairperson of
Ci ' s Planning Commission Hearing Board. "
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
Page -2-
Based upon the evidence in the record, the City Council makes the following findings of fact
and conclusions of law:
II. FINDINGS OF FACT
1) The Nature of Proceedings set forth above is true and correct and are incorporated
herein by this reference.
2) The subject of Planning Action 2008-00801 is real property located within the City of
Ashland ("City"), and describedin the County Tax Assessor's maps as Tax lot 1500 of 391E
15AC (the "Property"). The street address of. the Property is 960 Harmony Lane, Ashland,
Oregon, 97520.
3) The Property located at 960 Harmony Lane is zoned R-1-7.5, [Single-Family Residential].
All adjacent parcels are also zoned R-1-7.5, parcels across Ross Lane are zoned R-1-10. The
parcel is approximately 10,545 square feet in area and is approximately 3,045 square feet larger
than the minimum lot size required in the zoning district.
4) The applicant in Planning Action # 2008-00801 is Bill Emerson, Agent for Jendrisack
and Berry (Applicant).
5) The applicant is requesting a Conditional Use Permit and Site Review approval to consbuct
a new two-vehicle garage with a 592 square foot Accessory Residential Unit above. Site
improvements are outlined on the plans on file at the Department of Community Development.
6) The property is located on the east side of Harmony Lane, approximately 55 feet north
of its intersection with Ross Lane. There is an existing 1,234 square foot, one-story single-family
residence oriented to Harmony Lane at the front of the parcel, and an existing 403 square foot
detached garage adjacent to the north property line near the rear of the parcel.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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7) Mature landscaping exists throughout the parcel. There are six trees, six-inches or larger
in diameter-at-breast-height (d.b.h.) on the site, and the application notes that there are
approximately 15 total trees on the site. No tree removal is proposed. The parcel slopes to the
north at approximately six percent.
III. FINDINGS APPLYING APPLICABLE CODE CRITERIA
1) The City Council finds and determines that the relevant approval criteria are found in or
referenced in ALUO Section 18.20 Single Family Residential Zoning District, Section 18.72 Site
Design and Use Standards, and Section 18.104, Conditional Use Permits.
2) The City Council finds that it has received all information necessary to make a decision
based on the Staff Report, Staff Report Addenda, public hearing testimony, the exhibits and
evidence received, as well as the record as a whole.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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4) The City Council finds and determines based on the whole record, that Planning Action
2008-00801, a proposal to construct an approximately 592 square foot Accessory Residential Unit
above a proposed two-vehicle garage, is in compliance with all applicable approval criterion.
This finding is supported by the detailed findings set forth herein, as well as the incorporated
findings and responses noted above, and by competent substantial evidence in the whole record.
5) The criteria for a Conditional Use Permit are described in Chapter 18.104 as follows:
A conditional use permit shall be granted if the approval authority finds that the
proposed use conforms, or can be made to conform through the imposition of
conditions, with the following approval criteria.
A. That the use would be in conformance with all standards within the
zoning district in which the use is proposed to be located, and in
conformance with relevant Comprehensive plan policies that are not
implemented by any City, State, or Federal law or program.
B. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access
to and through the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and
adequate transportation can and will be provided to the subject
property.
C. That the conditional use will have no greater adverse material effect on
the livability of the impact area when compared to the development of
the subject lot with the target use of the zone. When evaluating the
effect of the proposed use on the impact area, the following factors of
livability of the impact area shall be considered in relation to the target
use of the zone:
1. Similarity in scale, bulk, and coverage.
2. Generation of traffic and effects on surrounding streets.
Increases in pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit use are
considered beneficial regardless of capacity of facilities.
3. Architectural compatibility with the impact area.
4. Air quality, including the generation of dust, odors, or other
environmental pollutants.
5. Generation of noise, light, and glare.
6. The development of adjacent properties as envisioned in the
Comprehensive Plan.
7. Other factors found to be relevant by the Hearing Authority for
review of the proposed use.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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6) AMC 18.104 A. [Conformance with Zoning]:
A. That the use would be in conformance with all standards within the
zoning district in which the use is proposed to be located, and in
conformance with relevant Comprehensive plan policies that are not
implemented by any City, State, or Federal law or program.
This criterion requires compliance with the standards of the applicable Zoning District and
Comprehensive Plan. The proposed use is an Accessory Residential Unit over a two car private
garage. The property has an Ashland Comprehensive Plan designation of Single Family
Residential implemented with the R-1-7.5 Zoning' District on the property. The Council finds
and determines that all applicable single family residential comprehensive plan policies are
implemented in the R-1 zoning district in the As~land Land Use Ordinance. The zoning district
codified at AMC 18.20 sets forth the permitted and conditional uses in R-1. An accessory
structure or use, that is, one incidental and subordinate to the main single family use of the
property, is permitted outright. Private garages are incidental and subordinate to the
residential use and are accessory structures permitted outright. [AMC 18.08.020]. Accordingly,
it is not the garage aspect of the proposal that requires the conditional use. The fact that the
proposed accessory structure contains an Accessory Residential Unit, (ARU), requires
compliance with specific conditional use criteria in AMC 18.20.030. H.:
H. Accessory residential units, subject to the Type I procedure and
criteria, and the following additional criteria:
1. The proposal must conform with the overall maximum lot coverage
and setback requirements of the underlying zone.
2. The maximum number of dwelling units shall not exceed 2 per lot.
3. The maximum gross habitable floor area (GHF A) of the accessory
residential structure shall not exceed 500/0 of the GHFA of the primary
residence on the lot, and shall not exceed 1000 sq. ft. GHFA.
4. Additional parking shall be in conformance with the off-street
Parking provisions for single-family dwellings of this Title.
1. The proposal must conform with the overall maximum lot coverage and setback
requirements of the underlying zone.
As proposed Accessory Residential Unit meets, the re
with the re uired solar setback.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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The site plan also demonstrates a total of 45 percent of the site is proposed to be covered
with impervious surface, including existing and proposed structures, parking areas, patios, and
walkways. The proposed coverage is also in compliance with the maximum 45 percent lot
coverage allowed in the zone.
As
evidenced in condition 1, "that all proposals of the applicant shall be conditions of approval" all
proposals, including setbacks from property lines, solar setbacks, lot coverage, etc. as proposed
in this application are required to be met at the time of building permit. Surveys are not
required by Ashland Municipal Code for the identification of property lines for the purposes of
planning action applications. Compliance with setbacks is required to be shown in the
application and if the location of property lines is questionable or disputed, a survey may be
required by the building division. There is no evidence to indicate that com liance with Ci
setbacks will be a roblem
. f setbacks cannot be met, as proposed, the approval becomes void and must be
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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2. The maximum number of dwelling units shall not exceed 2 per lot.
The above is subject to condition of approval # 1 below.
3. The maximum gross habitable floor area (GHFA) of the accessory residential structure
shall not exceed 500/0 of the GHF A of the primary residence on the lot, and shall not
exceed 1000 sq. ft. GHFA.
The existing house contains approximately 1,234 square feet of living area. Accessory
residential units are limited in size to a maximum of half of the gross habitable floor area of the
primary residence. The proposed accessory residential unit contains 592 square feet of living
space. The proposal is in compliance with the size requirement because the accesso
residential unit is less than one-half the size of the rimar residence.
condition of approval # 1 below.
4. Additional parking shall be in conformance with the off-street Parking provisions for
single-family dwellings of this Title.
The application involves a request to construct a 592 square foot accessory residential unit
above a proposed two-vehicle garage to be located behind the existing garage, with vehicular
accessed from the alley. Four parking spaces are required for the proposed accessory
residential unit and the existing primary residence. One space is provided in the existing
driveway accessed from Harmony Lane, two spaces are to be provided in the lower level of the
proposed garage, and two additional parking spaces are proposed to be provided outside of the
garage, ad' acent to the aIle at the rear of the arce!. Parkin exceeds the re uirements of the
Code.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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The above is subject to condition of approval # 1 below.
7) AMC 18.104 B. [Adequate Public Facilities}:
B. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access to .and
through the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and adequate
transportation can and will be provided to the subject property.
Water, sewer, electricity urban stonn drainage ...
This criterion requires a finding that adequate facilities can and will be provided to the" subject
property" that is, the legal parcel of property sub 'ect to the develo ment a lication.
Conditions can be im osed to achieve com liance,
Adequate public facilities are available in the
adjacent rights-of-way to serve both the existing and proposed unit. Such facilities are
identified on a site plan and discussed in the applicant's materials. Water, sewer, and electric
have sufficient capacity and are available in Harmony Lane. [The accessory residential unit is
required to have its own electric meter, but can access the existin sewer and water service from
the primar residence.]
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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~_I II
The original application included a utility plan identifying storm water drainage into a swale in
the alley. Based on the concerns raised by a neighbor regarding 'inadequate storm drainage
plan' the applicant revised the plan and $,.,:ro.po" to install a six-inch storm drain with
four-inch stub-outs for each property below the subject parcel run down the alley to an existing
storm water catchment which then drains through an easement to Hillview Drive.
-,
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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The above is subject to condition of approval # 1 and 3b
below.
Paved access to and throu h the development & adequate transportation...
This criterion requires a finding that adequate facilities can and will be provided to the "subject
property" that is, the legal parcel of proper sub'eet to the develo ment a lication. Conditions
can be im osed to achieve com liance,
Harmony Lane is a neighborhood street, and while it is
improved [paved] to city standards, it lacks continuous sidewalks. Adequate transportation
facilities are nevertheless available or can be made available in the adjacent rights-of-way to serve
both the existing and proposed unit. The alley at the rear of the subject property is unimproved.
The alley is accessed via Ross Lane, which is an unimproved City street.
Opponent, Mr. Doyle states that since the access to the new structure is off of the unpaved alley
which intersects with Ross Lane, which is partially paved, the criterion requiring "paved
access" to the site is not met. The paving standard for access has been defined and applied by
the City Council and the Planning Commission ~s the paved access to the subject site for
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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providers of services such as the postal service, deliveries, visitors, etc., and Harmony Lane is
the serviceable, addressable, legal frontage of the property. The City Council finds and
determines that the subject property [960 Harmony Lane] was created with its legal access and
frontage from Harmony Lane. SiIlce Harmony Lane is an improved City standard street, the
City Council finds, as it has in past applications, that the approval criterion for "paved access"
has been met.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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Further, the proportionality of the substantial public improvements suggested by the opponent
must be weighed against the impacts of a relatively modest (592 square-foot) accessory
residential unit. Approximately 275-feet of street improvements would be necessary to pave
Ross Lane from the intersection of Harmony and Ross to the paved portion and pave the alley
in comparison to the addition of approximately 7 vehicle trips per day generated by the
accessory residential unit. Additionally, there were at least two minor land partitions, which
created four lots accessed off Ross Lane which have similar vehicle trips per day as the
proposed accessory residential unit that were not required to pave Ross Lane. Statements were
made at that time by the City Council that large trees would impact the future improvements of
Ross Lane and keeping Ross unpaved in the future was desired.
Finally, to address the adequacy of transportation improvements and fire access, a condition has
been added requiring that the applicants sign in favor of local improvement districts to install
sidewalks on Harmony Lane, and for future improvements of the alley, if any. Because the
furthest point on the proposed structure is greater than 150' from the street fronting the pro
an alternative to fire ap aratus access will also be r uired.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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8) AMC 18.104 C [No Greater Adverse Effect on Livability]:
C. That the conditional use will have no greater adverse material effect on
the livability of the impact area when compared to the development of
the subject lot with the target use of the zone. When evaluating the
effect of the proposed use on the impact area, the following factors of
livability of the impact area shall be considered in relation to the target
use of the zone:
1. Similarity in scale, bulk, and coverage.
2. Generation of traffic and effects on surrounding streets.
Increases in pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit use are
considered beneficial regardless of capacity of facilities.
3. Architectural compatibility with the impact area.
4. Air quality, including the generation of dust, odors, or other
environmental pollutants.
5. Generation of noise, light, and glare.
6. The development of adjacent properties as envisioned in the
Comprehensive Plan.
7. Other factors found to be relevant by the Hearing Authority for
review of the proposed use.
Residential Dwelling is a conditional use;
This criterion requires the proposed conditional use to have no
greater adverse material effect on the livability of the impact area than [as compared to]
development of the subject property with the target use of the zone. The impact area is
considered to be the adjacent properties and the notice area. [See description under 11.3 above].
The target use of the zone is residential. The minimum lot size for R-1 is 7500 square feet. The
livability criterion is only a comparison of the proposed use relative to the target use. The
Council ex ressl finds and determines that this criterion is not a "no adverse im act"
standard.
AMC 18.104.C. is a comparison standard. A comparison standard such as is presented in AMC
18.104.C. is almost pointless as a standard when both the target use (residential) and the
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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proposed use (residential) are the same. That is, the addition of a residential use could hardly
have a greater adverse material impact on livability of the impact area than the development of
the lot with the target residential use of the zone. Essentially, a residential use has the same
adverse impact as a residential use. The fact that the proposal is for additional residential
square footage in the form of a detached residential unit, and not just expansion of the square
footage of the existing unit is of little consequence. For example, in R-1 the size of the
residential unit on the lot is bounded only by the coverage requirement; in addition, duplexes
are permitted use in the R-1 zone, [albeit on comer lots]. Even if the addition of a 597 square
foot ARU is considered the equivalent of a duplex, it is still equivalent in adverse impact to the
target residential use, which allows a duplex or larger residential unit subject only to coverage.
[The existing unit is only 1234 square feet].
Factors of livability are enumerated and compliance with the standard is analyzed below:
1. Scale, Bulk, Coverage and Architectural Compatibility
The proposed unit is 592 square feet and will be above a proposed two-vehicle garage. The
applicants are proposing adequate parking, and as proposed the lot coverage and setbacks
comply with. that allowed in the zone. The modest size of the proposed unit and its placement
at the rear of the parcel are appropriate and architecturally com atible with the bulk, scale,
coverage and develo ment atterns found in the vicini .
The
proposed residential use will have no greater adverse material effect on the livability of the
impact area than the development of the subject property with the target residential use of the
zone.
2. Generation of Traffic and Effects on Surrounding Streets
Harmony Lane provides access to the subject site. Harmony Lane is a neighborhood street and is
currently improved to 25-feet in width with ,a paved driving surface, curb and gutter. Large
stature trees are currently in pl~ce and serve as the street trees. The Institute of Transportation
Engineers estimates that a residential unit of 500 square feet or less will generate approximately 6.7
automobile trips per day and the proposed unit at 592 square feet will generate slightly more than
that. Given the proximity of the site to a park, shopping, and Siskiyou Boulevard, non-motorized
trips are a viable option. Specifically, under this factor, the ALVa notes that "Increases in
pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit use are considered beneficial regardless of capacity of
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF lAW AND ORDER
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facilities." The parcel is within walking distance of Siskiyou Boulevard and the bus route, which
makes walking, bicycling and transit viable options for residents of the accessory residential unit.
The application notes that the proposed accessory unit is traditional in style, with a small cottage
design
Accordingly, the
Council finds and determines that the proposed accessory residential unit will have no greater
adverse affect on the livability of the neighborhood than would full development of the site to it's
the target, residential use.
In terms of effect on surrounding streets, parking was identified as a factor of livability. Four
parking spaces are requited for the proposed accessory residential unit and the primary residence;
five parking spaces are being provided on site. One space is provided in the existing driveway
accessed from Harmony Lane, two spaces are to be provided in the lower level of the proposed
garage, and two additional parking spaces are proposed to be provided outside of the garage,
adjacent to the alley at the rear of the parcel. Testimony at the August 12th Planning Commission
hearing indicated there is an on-street parking issue on Harmony Lane with sufficient demand for
the on-street parking spaces. The applicant proposed two additional parking spaces on their site
which would alleviate some of the parking demand. The two additional parking spaces are not
required. Based on the c~ncerns raised by the neighbors pertaining to the amount of impervious
area, the applicant agreed at the August hearing to construct the two extra parking spaces with a
pervious material, a condition to this effect has been added. In a recent accessory residential unit
application in the neighborhood, residents of Harmony Lane and Garden Way expressed
considerable. concern with the impact of existing on street parking demand to neighborhood
livability. The applicants have proposed to address their parking demand on site at the rear of the
subject property, rather than utilizing an on-street parking credit, and this proposal works to
effectively minimize what is icall one of the most noticeable im acts of infill develo ment in
an established nei borhood.
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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Even without the applicant's additional efforts to meet the parking requirements on-site, the
proposed accessory residential unit will have no greater adverse affect on the livability of the
neighborhood than would full development of the site to it's the target, residential use.
3. Architectural compatibility with the impact area.
The proposed accessory residential unit is above a proposed two-vehicle garage. Though this
would be one of the first two-story structures located in this section of Harmony Lane, as long
as the required 20-foot rear yard setback and Solar Setbacks can be complied with, a two-story
structure is permitted. For the purposes of Conditional Use Permits, in the past, the
architectural compatibility has been reviewed pertaining to style, design and material usage
similarities and compatibility - not solely height or number of stories. In response to the
concerns raised regarding architectural compatibility, bulk and massing, the applicant has
provided an alternative East elevation (alley facin ) which shows an additional roof line over
the window on the south side of the elevation.
The
proposed accessory residential unit will have no greater adverse affect on the livability of the
neighborhood than would full development of the site to it's the target, residential use.
4. Air quality, including the generation of dust, odors, or other environmental pollution.
Opponent, addresses the generation of dust from the unpaved street and alley in his objections.
The findings under adequate public facilities above are incorporated herein to demonstrate that
there is no greater adverse impact based on the proposed use than from the tar et use, thus
avin is not re uired to miti ate such aIle ed im act.
Finally, to the extent storm water issues are considered "other environmental
pollution" the findings above under adequate public facilities are incorporated herein by this
reference to demonstrate that the proposed use will have no greater adverse impact than the
target residential use.
5. Generation of noise, light, and glare.
Opponent, Mr. Doyle also expressed concerns regarding the generation of light and noise. It is
not anticipated that the proposed use would create more dust, noise li t and lare than the
wide ran e of oecu ants that can reside in alar er residence.
According to the Site Design requirements, parcels are not permitted
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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to directly illuminate adjacent parcels and all lighting details will be required to demonstrate
this requirement is being met with the building permit submittals. Additionally, because of the
size of the accessory residential unit and that, it is only large enough for one or two residents
the generation of light and noise will be minimal. Past planning approvals of accessory
residential units have included conditions requiring screening of adjacent properties through
fencing, lighting type and placement and door placement to mitigate or reduce potential noise
and light impacts to adjacent properties. The level of mitigation requirements should be based
on an evaluation of a comparison of the noise and light impacts of the proposal with the target
use of the property, which is a single-family home. The proposed accessory residential unit
will have no greater adverse affect on the livability of the neighborhood than would full
development of the site to it's the target, residential use.
6. The development of adjacent properties as envisioned in the Comprehensive Plan.
The proposed accessory residential unit will have no greater adverse affect on the livability of
the neighborhood in terms of development of the adjacent properties than would full
development of the site to it's the target, residential use.
7. Other factors found to be relevant by the Hearing Authority for review of the
proposed use.
The Planning Staff report contains the following discussion which is incorporated herein and
accepted as supportive of the proposal under this criterion by the City Council:
Accessory residential units provide a different housing type. ,Accessory residential units were
added as a conditional use in the R-1 Single-Family Residential zoning district in 1991. This was
based upon the recommendation from the "Affordable Housing in Ashland" report which was
adopted by the City Council in May of 1990. Additionally the "Housing Needs Analysis" and
the "Affordable, Housing Action Plan", adopted by the City Council in 2002 identified a need
for accessory residential units. The addition of accessory residential units is consistent with
several goals and policies of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan that follow.
"Ensure a variety of dwelling types and provide housing opportunities for the total
cross-section of Ashland's population, consistent with preserving the character and
appearance of the city." Goal, Chapter VI, Housing
"Strive to maintain a diversity of population groups in Ashland, especially if increased
growth pressure leads to more expensive housing. Concentrate on population groups
that are important to 'Ashland's character, such as students, artists and actors, employees
of the city, school district and college, service personnel who work in the tourism
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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industry, hourly wage earners in local industries and local residents who have not
retired and live on fixed incomes." Policy V-4, Chapter V, Population
"It is the City of Ashland's goal to maintain a compact urban form and to include an
adequate supply of vacant land in the city so as not to hinder natural market forces
within the city, and to ensure an orderly and sequential development of land in the city
limits." Goal, Chapter XII, Urbanization
In general, few complaints have been received once the accessory residential units are
constructed and in use, and complaints tend to focus on. units that are existing but did
not go through the Conditional Use Permit process. In the Garden Way-Harmony Lane
neighborhood, there are multiple approved accessory residential units located at 869
Garden Way (PA 2002-073), 904 Garden Way (PA2004-052 (has since been inactive)), 968
Garden Way (PA 2004-161). No complaints regarding these accessory units have been
filed.
In sum, the City Council expressly finds and determines that the proposed ARU use will not
have any greater adverse material effect on the livability of the impact area than the
develo ment of the ro er with the tar et residential use of the zone.
9) Site Design Review: AMC 18.72.
Two or more residential units on a single lot require application of the Site Design Review. The
criteria for Site Review are described in Chapter 18.72.070 as follows:
A. All applicable City ordinances have been met or will be met by the
proposed development.
B. All requirements of the Site Review Chapter have been met or will be
met.
C. The development complies with the Site Design Standards adopted by
the City Council for implementation of this Chapter.
D. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access
to and through the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and
adequate transportation can and will be provided to and through the
subject property. All improvements in the street right-of-way shall
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
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II I
comply with the Street Standards in Chapter 18.88, Performance
Standards Options.
A. All applicable City ordinances have been met or will be met by the proposed
development.
B. All requirements of the Site Review Chapter have been met or will be met.
The City Council finds and determines that this criterion is a reference to applicable specific site
design review criteria contained in Chapter 18.72, (such as specific criteria for wireless
communication facilities in 18.72..180. There are no s ecific r uirements for ARUs in 18..72.
C. The development complies with the Site Design Standards adopted by the City
Council for implementation of this Chapter.
The City Council finds and determines that this criterion is a reference to the separately bound
and adopted site design standards. To the extent these standards have been addressed in
findings a~?\,e, J~.,. arkin) those findin s are s ecificall inco orated herein b this
reference.
D. That adequate capacity of City facilities for water, sewer, paved access to and through
the development, electricity, urban storm drainage, and adequate transportation can and will
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
Page -20-
be provided to and through the subject property. All improvements in the street right-of-way
shall comply with the Street Standards in Chapter 18.88, Performance Standards Options.
Findings of compliance with the adequate public facilities standard in AMC 18.104 B. as set forth
above are s cificall inco rated herein b this reference.
IV. ORDER
In sum, the City Council concludes that the proposal represented in Planning Action 2008-00801
to develop an approximately 592 square foot Accessory Residential Unit above a proposed two-
vehicle garage is in compliance with all applicable approval criteria.
Accordingly, based on the above Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law, and based upon the
evidence in the whole record, the City Council hereby APPROVES Plannin Action #2008-
00801, sub'ect to strict com liance with the conditions of a roval,
The following are the conditions
and they are attached to the approval:
1) That all proposals of the a
modified here.
2) That the plans submitted for the building permit shall be in substantial conformance
with those approved as part of this application. If the plans submitted for the building
permit are not in substantial conformance with those approved as part of this application,
an application to modify this Conditional Use Permit approval shall be submitted and
approved prior to issuance of a building permit.
3) That building permit submittals shall include:
a) Exterior lighting details demonstrating that the lights are appropriately shrouded, so there
is no direct illumination of surrounding properties.
b) That
The plans shall be reviewed and approved by the
City of Ashland Engineering Division prior to the issuance of a building or excavation
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
Page -21-
permit.
c) That the disturbed alley surface shall be restored to their original state following the
installati~n of the st~rm drainage line.
d) Utility, drainage and grading plans shall be provided for the review and approval by the
Building and Engineering Divisions.
e) That a revised landscaping, irrigation and tree protection plan- to include: 1) irrigation
details satisfying the requirements of the Site Design and Use Standards Water Conserving
Landscaping Guidelines and Policies; 2) the expansion of the proposed landscape buffer
strips adjacent to the rear parking spaces along the alley to a minimum of five feet in width
as required in the Site Design and Use Standards Parking Lot Landscaping and Screening
Standards shall be provided with the building permit submittals.
f) Solar calculations in the requisite formula demonstrating compliance with Solar Access
Standard B, and a clear identification of all shadow producing points and their height to
natural grade.
4) That prior to the issuance of a building permit:
a) The applicants shall sign in favor of a Local Improvement District (LID) for the future
improvement of Harmony Lane and the alley.
b) The applicants shall sign an agreement not to install kitchen facilities in the existing garage,
or to utilize the existing garage as a separate unit. With this approval, the site is approved
only for the primary residence and a single accessory residential unit.
c) All necessary building permits fees, including those for the new electrical service to the
accessory residential unit, utility fees, and system development charges for water, sewer,
storm water, parks and transportation shall be paid.
5) That prior to the issuance of a certificate of occupancy:
a) That if garbage service is to be provided by the property owners, an <?pportunity to recycle
site shall be located on the site, or an individual recycle bin shall be provided to all units in
conformance with 18.72.040. Screening for the trash and recycling enclosure shall be
installed in accordance with the Site Design and Use Standards
b) A separate, underground electric service for the accessory residential unit shall be installed
in accordance with Ashland Electric Department requirements.
c) A separate address for the accessory residential unit shall be applied for approved by the
City of Ashland Engineering Division. Addressing shall be visible from the public street.
d) The requirements of the Fire Department for approved addressing and installation of
smoke alarms complying, with current D.R.S. requirements shall be addressed. Because the
furthest point on the structures is greater than 150' from the street fronting the property, an
alternative to fire apparatus access is required. Oregon Fire Code 503.1.1 allows a
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
Page -22-
modification to this access requirement when fire sprinklers are installed.
e) All landscape improvements, including the pedestrian walkway from the proposed
accessory residential unit to Harmony Lane and the irrigation system shall be installed in
accordance with the approved plans, inspected, and approved by the Staff Advisor.'
f) The parking spaces shall be installed with pervious paving and in accordance with the
approved plan and the off-street parking standards, inspected, and approved by the Staff
Advisor. A minimum of 22-feet of clear back-up space shall be provided behind each of the
required parking spaces.
g) All necessary building inspections shall be approved prior to the issuance of a certificate of
occupancy for the new accessory residential unit.
6) That the recommendations of the Tree Commission, where consistent with the applicable
approval standards and with final review by the Staff Advisor, shall be conditions of this
approval.
Ashland City Council Approval
Mayor John W. Morrison
Date
Signature authorized and approved by the full Council this 16th day of December, 2008
Approved as to form:
Date:
Ashland City Attorney
FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS OF LAW AND ORDER
Page -23-
eltfCtJ\HM AtTb 12//f,JIoK
C I T Y 0 F fobke ad-'
ASHLAND
Memo
TO:
FROM:
DATE:
RE:
Ashland City Council
Ann Seltzer, Management Analyst
October 6, 2008
Question posed by Councilor Silbiger regarding capital projects subject to public art fee.
Councilor Silbiger requested information regarding CIP projects in the current budget that may be
subject to a percent for art fee. He asked for an estimate of the project costs over the next five years and
the cost breakdown by funding method i.e. bonds, SDC, fees, property tax etc.
Public Art Ordinance: Section 2.17.008 E and Section 2.17.180 C, D and E
CIP qualifying projects subject to public art
Project Estimated Total 0.50/0 for Art Funding Source
Cost over 5 years
Sidewalk $830,000 $4,150 Street SDCs
Improvements (based
on TSP list)
Beaver Slide Pedestrian $70,000 $350 Street SDCs
North Ashland $1 million $5,000 Street SDCs/Grant
Bikeway
City Facilities $11 million $55,000 Subject to council
Upgrades, police discussion/priorities/direction
building, fire station at the November 3 study
#2, council chamber, session on the Facilities
archive building, long Master Plan
term facilities etc.
Parks $300,000 $1,500 Grants, fees, other
Ice Rink Cover
Replacements and
Improvements
TOTAL $13.2 million $66,000 Mixed fundin~ sources
ADMINISTRATION
20 East Main Street
Ashland, Oregon 97520
www.ashland.or.us
Tel: 541-488-6002
Fax: 541-488-5311
TTY: 800-735-2900
rtl'
o
UNIVERSITY OF OREGON
News
Office of Communications 1239 University of Oregon. Eugene OR 97403-1239 - T 541-346-3134 - comm.uoregon.edu
(This release and photos are available on the Web at: http://tinyur1.com/5tcrf7)
Oregon's Rogue River Basin to face climate-change hurdles
University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative collaborates with other agencies to look at 2040 & 2080
EUGENE, Ore. -- (Dec. 16,2008) -- Three major global climate-change projections scaled down to
Oregon's Rogue River Basin point to hotter, drier summers with increasing wildfire risk, reduced
snowpack and rainier, stormy winters, according to a report coordinated by the University of
Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative and the National Center for Conservation Science & Policy.
Among the report's recommendations: a gradual relocation of structures and people from areas at
most risk of flash flooding and wildfires and a call for governments, private firms and households
to prioritize and cooperatively pursue strategies and policies to prepare for the changes.
"Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon" is the first of four
such reports that, authors say, represent the first such comprehensive scaling down of global
models to specific river basins in the United States. The three models involved (Hadley, CSIRO
and MIROC) are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific
intergovernmental body established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United
Nations Environment Programme.
Many buildings and infrastructure in the Rogue basin are in flood plains, while many rural
populations reside year-round in narrow and steeply sloped canyons. Storms and other climate
stresses, the report concludes, could threaten millions of dollars in direct costs and five to 10 times
that in indirect costs. There currently are a total of $21.5 billion in taxable properties in Josephine
and Jackson counties alone, although not all are considered in harm's way.
At a policy level, the report urges governments to work with collaborative mindsets. It also will be
important that climate preparation become a priority and that any proposed solutions also
consider potential impacts on other sectors to assure continued vitality for the region's population
centers and economies. The report focuses on conditions projected for 2040 and 2080.
"Our research found that climate change will significantly stress the natural environment of the
Rogue basin," said Bob Doppelt, director of the Climate Leadership Initiative. "These changes will,
in turn, have important consequences for the economy, social welfare and quality-of-life in the
region. Proactive steps to prepare for climate change should become a priority for every
government, private company and household in the basin."
-- More --
Rogue River climate change -- 2
A bottom line for the Rogue basin, Doppelt said, is that: "It is going to transition into an area that,
for comparison purposes, could seem similarto Sacramento, Calif. It gets very hot and very dry
there in the summer months." Urban areas at risk include Ashland, Medford, Central Point, Grants
Pass and Cave Junction.
A brief preliminary presentation of the report on Dec. 3 was well received by the Rogue Valley
Council of Governments, said Craig Harper, manager of the council's natural resources
department. The council co-sponsored the Dec. 16 official release of the report in Medford, Or~.
"Rogue basin communities must take the necessary steps to learn how to cope with the effects of
climate change, and to develop the systems that will allow them to recover from its impacts,"
Harper said. "Our region is resilient and strong, but to remain so we must begin to respond to
these coming changes."
Forthcoming reports will cover Oregon's Upper Willamette, Klamath and Umatilla river basins.
The four documents are being prepared by the UO's Climate Leadership Initiative and the
Ashland, Ore.,-based National Center for Conservation Science & Policy in partnership with the
U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station through its Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil
System (MAPSS) Team~ The reports incorporate findings and recommendations of separate panels
of scientists, land managers and policy experts.
Widespread risk to industry, species and economies
Agriculture may be hard hit in the Rogue basin, including vineyards that produce much of
Oregon's famous Pinot Noir wine. Pear crops, already are sensitive to temperature variations, also
will be at risk, said co-author Roger Hamilton, goveriunent program manager forUO's Climate
Leadership Initiative. These crops, he said, "may need to move toward the coast or northward."
I
As projected average temperatures in the Rogue basin rise 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040 and 4-8
degrees by 2080 -- and summers heat up 7-15 degrees by 2080 -- dramatic impacts are possible for
fisheries, forestry, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, transportation systems (road
infrastructure and fuel costs) and water quality, the report concludes. Another major issue will be
public health and emergency services, especially in at-risk areas.
A copy of the full report is available at: http://tinyur1.com/6zudsx
"The global climate models forecast increased precipitation at high latitudes and decreased
precipitation at desert latitudes," said Ron Neilson of the USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
MAPSS program. "The Rogue River Basin falls directly in the transition between these two major
global bands, rendering future forecasts of precipitation highly uncertain. Most importantly, the
models forecast increased severity and variability of precipitation events, particularly in the Rogue
-more-
Rogue River climate change -- 3
basin transition zone between the wet north and the dry subtropics. More severe and variable
weather might mean longer and deeper droughts, as well as longer and more severe floods."
Science panelists addressed the restoration and maintenance of floodplains and fisheries, including
the survivability of salmon, steelhead and other native species, as well as protection measures for
forests and forest wildlife species. At risk to wildfires will be Port Orford Cedar and Brewer's
Spruce, which are relics from the last ice age, as well as the Marbled Murrelet, an already
threatened coastal seabird that nests in old-growth forests, Spotted Owl and fisher, the report
noted. High-elevation changes also will threaten other bird species and native vegetation.
Policy and land-management panelists focused on the implications to economic systems, including
those related to the timber and agricultural industries, the relocation of structures and human
populations, changes necessary to maintain transportation systems, alternative energy sources
such as solar and high-efficiency thermal biomass, water allocation and groundwater use,
emergency management and ramifications for public health.
The consistent theme of the panels' recommendations was the call for integrated governmental
efforts. Specifically, the report calls for plans and policies that focus on a "future range of
variability" rather than the long-held approach of management based on historic patterns. It also
calls for "expanded planning and decision-making to the landscape level rather than planning at
the forest, county, city or project levels in isolation from other regions or interests."
"Society's challenge is two-fold," said Cindy Deacon Williams, senior scientist for the National
Center for Conservation Science & Policy. "We not only must reduce our emissions, we also mus~
prepare for the climate impacts already on the way. Even if emissions are successfully reduced, it
will take 50 to 100 years for the climate to stabilize. During that time we are likely to see significant
consequences in the Rogue basin. Communities need to start taking action now to prepare for
those impacts."
Doppelt, Hamilton, Williams and Marni Koopman, a climate scientist with the National Center for
Conservation Science & Policy wrote the final report.
About the University of Oregon
The University of Oregon is a world-class teaching and research institution and Oregon's flagship
public university. The UO is a member of the Association of American Universities (AAU), an
organization made up of 62 of the leading public and private research institutions in the United
States and Canada. Membership in the AAU is by invitation only. The University of Oregon is one
of only two AAU members in the Pacific Northwest.
-more-
Rogue River climate change -- 4
About the National Center for Conservation Science & Policy
The National Center for Conservation Science & Policy is a non-profit conservation science and
policy organization working to bridge the gap between sound conservation science and natural
resource policy. The National Center translates conservation science for community and
government leaders to ensure that policy decisions are based on the best available science.
Media Contacts: Jim Barlow, director of science and research communications, 541-346-3481,
jebarlow@Uoregon.edu; Julie Brown, director of 'media relations, 541-346-3185,
julbrown@Uoregon.edu; Dominick DellaSala, executive director of programs, National Center for
Conservation Science & Policy, 541-482-4459, ext. 302, dominick@nccsp.org
Sources:
· Bob Doppelt, director, Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon's Institute for
Sustainable Environment, 541-346-0687, bdoppelt@uoregon.edu
· Roger Hamilton, government program manager, Climate Leadership Initiative, University
of Oregon's Institute for Sustainable Environment, 541-346-1608, grh@uoregon.edu
· Cindy Deacon Williams; senior scientist, National Center for Conservation Sci~nce & Policy,
541-601-4737, cdwill@medford.net
· Ron Neilson, bioclimatologist, U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
MAPSS program, Corvallis, 541-750-7303, rneilson@fs.fed.us
· Craig Harper, manager, department of natural resources, Rogue Valley Council of
Governments, 541-423-1369, charper@rvcob.org
Links: UO Climate Leadership Initiative: http://climlead.uoregon.edu/; UO Institute for a
Sustainable Environment: http://www.uoregon.edu/....envirol;National Center for Conservation
Science & Policy: http://www.nccsp.org/; U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
MAPSS: http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/mdr/mapss/index.shtml; Rogue Valley Council of
Governments: http://www.rvcog.org/; and a PDF copy of the report: http://tinyur1.com/6zudsx
###
-more-
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE
ROGUE RIVER BASIN
OF SOUTHWEST OREGON
..... '
STRESSORS, RISKS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR INCREASING RESILIENCE AND RESISTANCE
IN HUMAN, BUILT, ECONOMIC AND NATURAL SYSTEMS
Prepared by
Bob Doppelt, Director
Climate Leadership Initiative
Institute for Sustainable Environment
University of Oreg~n
Roger Hamilton, Government Program Manager
Climate Leadership Initiative
Institute for Sustainable Environment
University of Oregon
Cindy Deacon Williams, Senior Scientist
National Center for Conservation Science & Policy
Marni Koopman, Climate Scientist
National Center for Conservation Science & Policy
December 8, 2008
rt'lCLI
~ National Center for
~ Conservation Science & Policy
II MAPSS Team at the
.. U.S.D.A. Forest Service:
Pacific Northwest
Research Station
Preparing for Climate Change
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Rogue River Basin, located in southwest Oregon, consists of a diverse array of communities,
economies and ecological systems. The Basin's rich history, beautiful setting, and recreational and
employment opportunities, attract visitors and residents to the region year-round. Climate change is
likely to produce significant new stresses and alterations to water quantity and quality, fish, wildlife,
plant life, forests and fire regimes of the Rogue Basin. The Rogue will not be the only region to
experience the effects of climate change. Every region of the West, nation, and the world will be
affected. These changes will, however, have important consequences for the economy, infrastructure,
and human services on which the people and communities within the Rogue Basin rely on for their
quality of life.
In the summer of 2008, the University of Oregon Climate Leadership Initiative, in partnership with The
National Center for Conservation Science & Policy and the MAPSS Team at the U.S. Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station, initiated a project to assess the likely consequences of climate
change for the Rogue River Basin. The project began by downscaling three climate models (CSIRO,
MIROC, and Hadley) and incorporating a global vegetation change model (MC1) used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A panel of scientists and land managers then assessed
the likely risks posed by changing climate conditions to natural systems and made recommendations
for increasing the capacity of ecosystems and species to withstand and adapt to those stressors.
In turn, a panel of policy experts used the information provided by the scientists to assess the likely
risks to economic, built, and human systems within the Rogue Basin posed by climate change and
recommended ways to increase resistance and resiliency of those systems.
The downscaling of the three climate models and the analysis of the vegetation model
led to the following future projections for the Rogue Basin:
Temperature
· Annual average temperatures are likely to
increase from 1 to 30 F (0.5 to 1.60 C) by
around 2040, and 4 to 80 F (2.2 to 4.40 C) by
around 2080.
· Summer temperatures may increase
dramatically reaching 7 to 150 F (3.8 to 8.30
C) above baseline by 2080, while winter
temperatures may increase 3 to 80F (1.6 to
3.30 C).
Precipitation and Snowpack
· Total precipitation may remain roughly similar
to historical levels but increasingly is likely to
fall in the mid-winter months rather than in
the spring, summer and fall.
· Rising temperatures will cause snow to turn
to rain in lower elevations and decrease
average January snowpack significantly,
with a corresponding decline in runoff and
streamflows. According to one model,
snowpack will be reduced 750/0 from the
baseline by 2040, and another 750/0 from
2040 to an insignificant amount by 2080.
Storms, Flooding, and Drought
· The Basin is likely to experience more severe
storm events, variable weather, higher and
flashier winter and spring runoff events, and
increased flooding.
· Both wet and dry cycles are likely to last
longer and be more extreme, leading to both
periods of deeper drought and those of more
extensive flooding.
Wildfire
· Reduced snowpack and soil moisture along
with hotter temperatures and longer fire
seasons likely will increase significantly the
amount of biomass (vegetation) consumed by
wildfire.
iv Preparing for Climate Change
Based on these projections, the science panel identified the following likely
consequences for aquatic and terrestrial systems and species in the Rogue Basin:
Aquatic Systems and Species
· Increased storm and fire frequency will
increase sediment and nutrient loads as well
as persistent organic pollutants and other
contaminants entering the Rogue River
and its tributaries. Along with higher water
temperatures these factors will reduce water
quality, threatening the recruitment and
survival of young native fish.
· Shifts in the timing of stream flows could
trigger earlier emergences.of aquatic insects
and shifts in the timing of adult salmon and
steel head spawning migration, egg incubation
and hatch, and smolt outmigration. The result
is likely to increase the risk of a disconnection
between the timing of fish life stages and the
availability of primary food resources.
· Warmer water temperatures and extended
low summer base flows extending well past
the summer months are likely to decrease
dissolved oxygen, produce more disease, and
create a greater frequency of conditions lethal
to native fish.
· More storms and flooding likely will increase
stream bank erosion and increase channel
downcutting resulting in degraded stream
habitat and habitat fragmentation precipitating
a reduction in biotic carrying capacity,
heightened susceptibility to flood and drought,
and a contraction of the stream network.
Terrestrial Systems and Species
· Increasingly drought stressed vegetation, due
to higher evaporation rates, will lead to
increases in insect outbreaks and disease.
Stressed and dying vegetation will produce
larger and more frequent wildfires.
· Rapid shifts in climate, compounded by
habitat fragmentation, will complicate the
opportunity for some native vegetation and
wildlife to adjust and disperse, leading to
shifting populations.
· Changes in the timing of flowering and
insect emergence could disrupt historical
relationships between migratory species, and
especially long-distance avian migrants, and
prefered food availability.
· Amphibians may be especially at risk due
to the low mobility of some species and
increased drying and habitat conversion
expected from climate change.
· High elevation wildlife and plant species may
not be able to make the shift to new areas
due to a lack of available habitat.
· Disease and disease vectors are expected
to increase with warmer temperatures.
Individuals under stress from climate change
and other stressors will also be more
susceptible to disease.
Both Aquatic and Terrestrial Systems
· The changes described above mean
increased vulnerability of aquatic and
terrestrial species should be expected.
· Expansion in invasive species may also be
likely as conditions become more favorable
for exotics and less favorable for some
natives.
Based on the analysis of the risks to natural systems, the policy panel identified the
following risks to built, human and economic systems in the Rogue Basin:
Infrastructure Energy Systems
.
Increased disruption and direct damC!ge to
transportation systems, buildings, and real
estate from more flooding and wildfires;
possibly even larger indirect costs due to
more rapid depreciation.
Many roads will likely to be impacted by more
frequent storm events, flooding and wildfires,
impairing the movement of people during
emergencies.
.
.
Electricity from the Bonneville Power
Administration (BPA) hydro system is likely to
be constrained in summer months because
of reduced snowpack and stream flows just
as electrical demand rises due to increased
need for air conditioning in the summer and
increases in population.
Power lines are likely to face increased stress
due to rising fires and temperatures.
.
The Rogue River Basin Report V
Public Health
· Demands for emergency services are likely
to increase as storm events, flooding and
wildfires increase, but the funding needed to
support them may be difficult to obtain.
· Rising summer temperatures will likely
increase the incidence and intensity of heat-
related illnesses and vector- and water-borne
diseases such as Lyme disease and West
Nile virus.
· Rising temperatures and increased smoke
from wildfires are likely to increase the
incidence of asthma.
Agriculture and Forestry
· Forest products may shift to smaller diameter
logs if managed by thinning to reduce drought
stress and to supply new biomass energy or
alternative forest products.
· Agriculture will face increased competition
between in-stream and municipal users
for available water supplies while rising
temperatures are likely to require the use of
more water and/or a shift in crop types and
farming practices.
Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors
· Manufacturing, retail and service sectors are
likely to experience higher fuel and electrical
costs due to reduced summer output from
the SPA hydroelectrical system, disruption in
supply chains and the distribution of goods
due to increased storm events, flooding,
and fires, and increased workforce health
concerns.
· Winter recreation activities such as skiing and
snowmobiling will be reduced as snowpack
decreases.
The science panel made the following recommendations to prepare aquatic and
terrestrial systems for climate change by increasing resilience and resistance:
Aquatic Systems
· Restoration and maintenance of stream
complexity and connectivity will improve
spawning habitat and allow for movement to
new areas as other areas become too warm.
· Restoration and maintenance of critical
landscapes such as high elevation riparian
areas, floodplains, tributary junctions, north-
facing streams, and stream reaches with
gravels and topographic complexity.
· Management of fisheries to protect genetic
and life history diversity of native species.
Terrestrial Systems
· Protection and restoration of ecosystem
structure, function and genetic diversity to
allow organisms to withstand and adapt to
climate stressors.
· The use of strategic fire should be used to
reduce the likelihood of severe fire, as should
replanting with a diverse array of native
species, and ecologically appropriate fuels
reduction efforts.
· Remaining intact habitats should be
protected, including old growth, roadless
areas and corridor connections for wildlife
migration. Protected areas should be
expanded longitudinally and latitudinally in
order to allow species to shift their ranges.
· Land and stream reaches that provide critical
support for ecosystem services should be
identified, protected and restored. Ecosystem
services are benefits that people gain from
functioning ecosystems, including clean
water, decomposition of waste and toxins,
timber harvest, recreational opportunities, etc.
· Translocations may be necessary when
the suitable climate changes' too quickly for
species to adjust their ranges, or when habitat
fragementation prevents their movement.
vi Preparing for Climate Change
Both Aquatic and Terrestrial Systems
· Reducing existing stressors, such as habitat
fragmentation, erosion from resource
extraction and roads, air and water pollution
and contamination, the loss of keystone
species, introduction of invasive species,
and conversion of forests, riparian areas
and floodplains to urban and suburban
development, would result in substantial
benefits to both aquatic and terrestrial
species and systems.
· Redirect responsibility for emergency
services so that private parties that wish to
locate in these high risk areas pay for those
services, while also providing funding and
tools to help low income and vulnerable
populations cover these costs.
· Management should shift to encompass
climate-induced changes and contribute
to the landscape's ability to buffer greater
seasonal, annual, and decadal variability in
temperature and precipitation as well as more
severe storm events.
The policy panel made the following recommendations to prepare human, built, and
economic systems for climate change:
Infrastructure
· Permanent structures should be moved out
of high risk floodplains, riparian areas and
steep forested canyons if and when they
are damaged by floods or fires and new
development should be constrained in these
critical landscape areas.
· Link public transportation systems as much
as possible to facilitate movement of people
and equipment in emergency situations.
· Expand road upgrading and maintenance
such as the installation of larger culverts and
regular culvert clean outs to prevent wash
outs during major storms and floods.
· Expand conservation and efficiency programs
in commercial and residential buildings to
dramatically reduce energy and water use.
· Increase the use of distributed energy such
as solar and high-efficiency thermal biomass
in order to provide backups in times of energy
supply problems and to stabilize costs.
· Re-examine the water allocation system and
groundwater use to avoid over-appropriation.
Emergency Management
· Concentrate human populations away from
high-risk floodplains and steep canyons to
less risky portions of the Basin.
· Redirect emergency service responsibilities
so that private parties who choose to locate in
high-risk areas pay for those services.
· Link climate preparation with economic
development such as job creation through
fuels reduction in the urban-wildland interface.
Public Health
· Upgrade and adapt vector control programs
to better respond to emerging diseases.
· Strengthen and expand water quality
protections from runoff and contaminants.
· Enhance strategies to anticipate new climate-
induced health service needs and ensure they
are provided to the most vulnerable citizens.
Agriculture and Forestry
· Maintain existing crops as long as possible
while also researching new crops and
sustainable farming practices in advance of
climate-induced demands for change.
· Expand agricultural energy and water
conservation and efficiency programs.
· Forest management should incorporate future
climate conditions by building resistance
and resiliency through greater structural and
genetic vegetation diversity.
· Forests managed with longer harvest
rotations will sequester more carbon and may
acquire credits in a' cap and trade market.
The Rogue River Basin Report vii
Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors
.
Expand the use of on-site renewable energy
systems to provide protection against
blackouts and provide stability to energy
prices.
Significantly expand water conservation
and efficiency programs and policies in
manufacturing and other urban and suburban
settings.
.
Explore ways to expand the tourism season
to include spring and winter as summer
seasons become hotter.
.
A consistent theme heard from the panels was the need for new types of information,
resource allocations, and decision-making mechanisms. In short, the panels called for
new and expanded forms of governance. Specific recommendations include:
· Incorporate climate change preparation into all current and future public and private plans and
policies.
· Reorient management plans and policies to focus on the 'Future Range of Climate Variability'
rather than the long-held approach of management based on historic patterns.
· Set goals and priorities appropriate for projected future conditions, with alternative plans, goals,
and priorities in place for seamless adjustments to changing conditions.
· Utilize 'scenario planning' methods to identify and plan for climate futures.
· Expand planning and decision making to at least the Basin scale rather than planning at the
forest, county, city or project levels in isolation of other regions or interests.
· Evaluate how policies, programs and projects may affect climate preparation efforts in other
sectors or regions of the Basin and constantly identify ways for one activity or project to provide
co-benefits for others.
· Expand participation on planning and decision-making teams to include people representing
different stakeholder groups or other regions of the Basin that are likely to be affected by climate
change.
· Improve and reorient data gathering and monitoring systems to generate timely information on
the speed, trajectory, and consequences of climate change.
· Increase public understanding of the likely consequences of climate change and preparation
options as well as efficacy of management action.
Global temperatures are rising in large part due to human activities. No matter how fast human-
induced greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced, over the coming decades climate change
is likely to significantly stress and transform natural systems in the Rogue Basin. These changes
will produce considerable modifications in the way the local economy functions, in infrastructure
and buildings, in human health, c;lnd in the quality of life of the people who live in and enjoy the
Rogue River Basin. Numerous initiatives are already underway within the Rogue Basin that can
help people prepare for these effects. Upgrading existing and proactively launching the additional
climate preparation steps described in this report in an integrated and co-beneficial manner can build
resistance and resilience to climate change and help people and communities adapt and thrive in the
future.
viii Preparing for Climate Change
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary Page iv
Introduction and Background 1
What is Climate Change Preparation and Why is it Needed? 1
The Rogue Basin Project 2
The Emission Scenario and Projected Temperature Increase 3
The Climate Models 4
Limitations to the Climate Models 4
Climate Future in the Rogue Basin 5
Temperature 5
Precipitation, Snowpack, Snowmelt and Stream Flow 5
Changes in Fire and Carbon Sequestration in Vegetation 6
Changes to Vegetation Patterns 6
Risks to Species and Ecosystem Function 9
Risks to Aquatic Species and Systems 9
Risks to Terrestrial Species and Systems 10
Risks to People, Community and the Economy 11
Risks to Infrastructure and the Built Environment 11
Buildings and Real Estate 11
Transportation 12
Water Supply 12
Energy Systems 13
Risks to Economic Systems 14
Agriculture 14
Forestry 15
Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors 16
Risks to Public Health and Emergency Services 16
Public Health Services 16
Emergency Services 17
At Risk Areas and Vulnerable Populations 17
Buffered Areas and Populations 18
Summary 18
Recommendations for Increasing Resistance and Resilience 19
The Need for Integrated, Co-Beneficial, Climate Preparation Plans and Policies 19
Preparation for Aquatic Species and Systems 19
Preparation for Terrestrial Species and Systems 21
Preparation Strategies for Infrastructure and the Built Environment 23
Preparation Strategies for Economic Systems 25
Preparation Strategies for Public Health and Emergency Services 26
The Need for New and Expanded Systems of Governance 28
Conclusions 32
Literature Cited 33
Appendix A; Participants in the Natural Systems Workshops 35
Appendix B. Participants in the Human, Built, & Economic Systems Workshop 37
Appendix C. Graphs and Figures 39
Appendix D. Climate Change Impacts - Conflicts and Synergies 41
The Rogue River Basin Report
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared that the evidence
is now "unequivocal" that the earth's atmosphere and oceans are warming (IPCC 2007). The
IPCC concluded that human activities, including the emission of carbon dioxide, methane and
other greenhouse gasses, along with land clearing and development, are responsible for most
of the warming. Left unchecked, rising global temperatures and the changes in climatic patterns
they cause will affect ecological health and thus undermine economic and social prosperity and
security locally and abroad.
This report describes the likely consequences of climate change
on natural, human, built, and economic systems in the Rogue River
Basin of southwest Oregon. It also describes a suite of strategies
and policies for building resistance and resilience to climate change
in the Rogue Basin recommended by a panel of scientists and policy
experts. The consequences of climate change will not be restricted to
the Rogue Basin. Climate change is a global problem and no region
in Oregon or elsewhere in the West or the world will be immune from
its impacts.
This report is the product of a larger initiative aimed at establishing Photo by Steve Whitney
a common method for developing integrated climate preparation
plans and policies. The project is coordinated by the Climate
Leadership Initiative in the Institute for Sustainable Environment
at the University of Oregon, in partnership with The National Center for Conservation Science &
Policy (NCCSP) and the MAPSS Team at the U.S: Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research
Station (PNW). In addition to the Rogue Basin, climate preparation assessments will be
developed for the Upper Willamette, Klamath and Umatilla Basins. This work will pave the way
for collaborative efforts that will increase the resistance and resilience of natural, built, human,
and economic sectors to climate change in Oregon and the West.
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE PREPARATION AND WHY IS IT NEEDED?
P 0.4
Q; 0.2
0')
~ 0
0-0.2
~-0.4
~-0.6
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
YEAR
FIG 1. GLOBAL DEPARTURES IN MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENIA, AS COMPARED TO 1961.1990
AVERAGE (ADAPTED FROM MANN AND JONES 2003).
Global mean surface temperatures
have already risen by 1 .30 F since
the early part of this century (Figure
1). In the Pacific Northwest, average
temperatures have risen by 1.50 F.
Scientists have spent considerable
time teasing out natural from human-
related drivers of global warming, and
the consensus is that solar variability,
volcanic activity and other natural
events cannot account for current levels
and rates of global warming (IPCC
2007).
The Rogue River Basin Report 1
Only when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, which has risen more than 35% since
pre-industrial times, methane, which is up 155%, and other greenhouse gasses, are taken into
account do climate models replicate observed warming. The bottom line is that global warming is
indisputably happening, humans are the primary cause, and this warming will have serious impacts
to the world's climate systems.
Although much attention is being appropriately focused on reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
by 80% or more to restabilize the climate, it will take fifty years or more for this to occur because of
the residence time of emissions already built-up in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007). Efforts to prepare
natural, economic, built, and human systems to withstand and adapt to the now unavoidable
consequences of clim~te change therefore must become a priority of government, the private sector,
and households. Preparation efforts will, in many cases, complement and enhance actions aimed at
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This report provides an initial set of guidelines for preparing for climate change in the Rogue Basin.
The term "preparation" as used in this context means to proactively build resistance and resilience
within natural, human, built and economic systems to enhance their capacity to withstand and adapt
to climate change. Resistance strategies seek to increase the capacity of systems to withstand
the negative effects of climate change. Resilience strategies are aimed at building the capacity of
systems to recover from the impacts ofclimate change.
THE ROGUE BASIN PROJECT
The Rogue River Basin of Oregon is a special place. It
stretches from the crest of the Cascade Mountains near
Crater Lake to the Pacific Ocean in the southwest coast.
The Basin incorporates most of Josephine, Jackson
and Curry counties, which are home to approximately
302,000 people. Agriculture, forestry, tourism and a
diverse array of other commercial sectors support the
local economy. Salmon and steel head fill the rivers, and
wildlife is abundant. The Rogue Basin is characterized
by its immense natural beauty, which provides spiritual
and recreational opportunities for local residents and
visitors from around the world.
Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the
natural systems of the Rogue Basin. Changes in
the structure and function of ecological systems
and species will, in turn, affect the economy,
communities and qua'lity-of-life of residents. The
consequences of climate change in the Rogue
Basin were assessed using three models (CSIRO,
MIROC, and Hadley) operated under the 'A2'
emission scenario assumptions that were developed
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC 2007). With assistance from USFS Research
Station PNW's MAPSS team, global climate change
This report is intended to provide a
starting point for climate preparation
efforts in the Rogue Basin. We
hope that, over time, all levels of
government, the private sector, and
households will utilize the information
and recommendations as a platform
to expand their knowledge and
develop continuously improving
climate preparation strategies and
policies.
FIG 2. MAP OF ROGUE RIVER BASIN. COURTESY
RICHARD NAUMAN
~__J_
2 Preparing for Climate Change
projections were downscaled to the Rogue Basin and mapped for two future time periods, 2035-
2045 and 2075-2085. In addition, time series graphs were plotted for some factors, such as wildfire,
to show how conditions may change over time.
On the basis of the projections made by downscaling the global climate models (GCMs) and
incorporating the vegetation model (MC1), a panel of natural systems experts and other participants
(see Appendix A for participant list) assessed the likely impacts of climate change on natural
systems (species, ecological communities, and ecosystems). They also identified strategies
and policies for increasing ecological resistance and resilience. Finally, they noted better needs
for research, data, and monitoring to understand impacts and facilitate ongoing learning and
adaptation in rapidly changing conditions over time.
The Emission Scenario and Projected Temperature Increase
6.0
I- CD u:
CD ;c ~ ;c ~ ;c
-A2
-A1B
-Bl
- Year 2000 Constant
Concenlrations
- 20th century
II I I I
The natural systems assessment served as
the basis for a subsequent assessment by a
panel of managers and policy experts, (see
Appendix B for participant list) who identified
the likely risks to human, built, and economic
systems posed by the climate and ecological
changes. This panel identified strategies
and policies for increasing resistance and
resilience, as well as information needed
to monitor impacts, learn and adjust over
time. These workshops form the basis of the
recommendations found in this report.
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
1900 2000
2100
FIG 3. GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE PAST, AND
PROJECTED 100 YEARS IN THE FUTURE BASED ON MUL TI-
MODEL GLOBAL AVERAGES AND 6 DIFFERENT EMISSIONS
SCENARIOS, INCLUDING A2 OPCC 2001).
The A2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) scenario used in this project
is the "business as usual" emissions path
the world is currently following (note that
global emissions are now actually higher than the A2 scenario assumes). In this scenario, the
IPCC assumes that most countries fail to act individually or collectively to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Countries preserve self-reliance and national identities, following the lead of the United
States, India, and China. The global population continuously increases, reaching a projected
15 billion by the end of the century. The world is much more affluent than today, with a Gross
World Product that by 2100 is 26 times the present amount, but economic growth is fragmented
and technology change is slow. Emissions caused by land use changes increase, driven by
deforestation and converting forests and other lands to agriculture to support population growth, but
agricultural productivity gains are low.
On a global scale, surface temperatures increase from just below 1.80 F (10 C) by 2025 to more
than 5.40 F (30 C) by 2095 (Figure 3). As ocean waters warm, water expansion from warming alone
causes sea levels to rise on average from 0.75 ft (0.23 m) to 1.7 ft (0.51 m); substantial additional
rise in sea levels will occur due to polar ice-sheet melting, but ice sheet dynamics are still poorly
understood. According to the British Antarctic Survey, sea levels could rise 17-20 ft (5-6m) if the
West Antarctic ice sheet collapses (BAS 2004).
The Rogue River Basin Report 3
--'-,
To provide a context for the projected increase in global surface temperature, consider Figure 1
(page 1), which shows temperature trends over the last 2000 years. The green line shows global
surface temperatures nearly constant for 400 years between 200 AD and 600 AD. The red line
shows that global temperatures then declined slowly for 1300 years between 600 AD and 1900
AD. The blue line shows that during the last 100 years, between 1900 AD and 2000 AD, global
surface temperatures increased rapidly. This 1.1-1.40 F (0.6-0.80 C) increase in global surface
temperature over the past two millenia highlights the novelty of the 1.8-5.40 F (1.0-3.00 C) rise in
global temperature anticipated during the coming century.
The Climate Models
The three global climate models used in the Rogue Basin project (CSIRO, MIROC and Hadley) are
known as Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM's) and are based on equations
describing the atmosphere, land surface, cryosphere (ice and snow), and oceans. Table 1 identifies
the factors that are incorporated into the three models.
TABLE 1. MODEliNG INPUTS FOR EACH OF THE THREE MODELS USED IN THIS PROJECT (IPCC 2007l.
Model
CSIRO
MIROC
Hadley
C02
Yes
Yes
Yes
CH4
Yes
Yes
Yes
Strat . Ozone
Yes
Yes
Yes
T rop. Ozone
Yes
Yes
Yes
Limitations to the Climate Models
There are several limitations to the climate
models that add uncertainty to forecasting future
climate. The more refined and region or site
specific a global model becomes, the greater the
chance of error. Models also have difficulty with
modeling the effects of changes in the amount
of solar radiation reflected from the earth's
surface back to the atmosphere (albedo effect)
and the strength of water vapor in warming the
planet. The latter issue is especially important
because increased water vapor is linked to
rising temperatures and water vapor alone may
account for 50%) of warming. In general, all
three models are better at projecting changes
in temperature than in precipitation. In addition,
the models were created at globally appropriate
scales, and "downscaled" to the Rogue Basin.
The downscaling permits the examination of local
and regional trends, but retains a global level of
uncertainty that potentially clouds the results.'
CFCs
Yes
Yes
Yes
Land Use
No
Yes
Yes
Aerosols
Only S04
Yes
Only S04.
volcanic
Solar
No
Yes
Yes
The global climate models forecast increased
precipitation at high latitudes and decreased
precipitation at desert latitudes. The Rogue
River Basin falls directly in the transition
between these two major global bands,
rendering future forecasts of precipitation
highly uncertain. Most importantly, the
models forecast increased severity and
variability of precipitation events, particularly
in the Rogue Basin transition zone between
the wet north and the dry subtropics. More
severe and variable weather might mean
longer and deeper droughts, as well as
longer and more severe floods.
-- Dr. Ron Neilson, USFS PNW Research Station
Given the limitations, model projections should not be considered absolute; instead, they should
both be considered likely possibilities. It is important to note, however, that growing evidence
indicates that the climate change projections made by these and many other climate models are, if
anything, underestimating the rate and extent of the changes from global warming.
4 Preparing for Climate Change
The three climate models and the vegetation model describe a reasonable range of possible future
conditions in the Rogue Basin given projected emission paths and climate changes. Many experts
predict an increase in the variability of climate patterns from decade to decade, which the varied
outcomes of the models seem to support. This suggests that many, or even all, effects described
for the Rogue Basin by the different models could occur at different times in the future. Rather than
debating the merits of any particular climate model or outcome, it therefore is in the best interest of
the people of the Rogue Basin to plan with the full range of possible future outcomes in mind.
CLIMATE FUTURE IN THE ROGUE BASIN
The three climate models and vegetation model projected changes in temperature, precipitation,
snow accumulation and melt, stream flow, vegetation carbon, biomass consumed by fire, and
distribution of different vegetation types. Appendix C includes the maps and graphs produced from
the models.
Temperature
All three models project a significant
increase in annual average temperature
in the Rogue River Basin (Figure 4),
ranging from 10 to 30 F (0.5 to 1.60 C) by
around 2040, and 40 to 80 F (2.2 to 4.40
C) by around 2080, slightly above the
global average. Summer temperatures
in the Basin are projected to increase
dramatically, reaching temperatures 70 to
150 F (3.8 to 8.30 C) above baseline by
2080, while even winter temperatures are
likely to rise and reach temperatures 30 to
80 F (1.6 to 3.30 C) warmer than the past
century.
Precipitation, Snowpack, Snowmelt
and Stream Flow
Two of the three models project that
average annual precipitation is unlikely to
change significantly during this century,
but seasonal precipitation patterns are
likely to change. Notable changes include
significantly more precipitation during mid
to late fall, winter, and early spring than
was observed during the past century. The
third model, Hadley, projects no significant
divergence from current seasonal patterns
at any time during the year.
16
I 61
14 I
to) : 57
112 i
54i
..
"
10 50
- Measured - MIROC - HADLEY - CSIRO
FIG 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS ROGUE
BASIN
200
)150
u
:g
';100
i 50
o
1900
2000
2099
- Measured - MC1.Hlst - MIROC - HADLEY - CSlRO
FIG 5. ANNUAL STREAM FLOW AT A SINGLE STREAM GAUGE
(GOLD REY) IN THE ROGUE BASIN, WITH AN 11 YEAR FIL-
TER. HISTORICAL STREAM FLOW IS SHOWN BASED ON HIS-
TORICAL DATA (DARK BLUE) AND MODELED (LIGHT BLUE).
PROJECTED STREAM FLOW IS GIVEN BASED ON THREE
DOWNSCALED GLOBALCLlMATE MODELS.
The Rogue River Basin Report 5
All three models agree that significant changes in annual and seasonal snow accumulation and
melt should be expected. Snow accumulation is expected to decline by 25-75% by 2040, and up to
94% by 2080. All models anticipate a significant shift from snow to rain at lower elevations.
The models produced a range of anticipated annual stream flow levels in the Rogue Basin
(Figure 5, page 5) that were consistent with the projected changes in annual precipitation. MIROC
anticipates gradually declining annual stream flows that are reasonably comparable to baseline;
Hadley projects slightly larger declines in annual stream flows that reach levels notably below
baseline during the later half of the century; CSIRO projects a continuous increase in annual
stream flow in the second half of the century.
Changes in fire and carbon sequestration in vegetation
The global vegetation model was combined with the three climate models and predicted that future
conditions would be susceptible to producing two distinct patterns regarding the amount of carbon
stored in vegetation and the level of biomass consumed by fire (Figure 6). In general, CSIRO
and Hadley both envision increased fires in the first half of the century that will have an impact on
the amount of vegetation carbon, followed by a period of declining fire and increased vegetation
carbon. MIROC projects increased fires during the first and last thirds of the century, with fewer
fires during the middle third of the century resulting in increased vegetation carbon in mid-century.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
01900 1990 2090
- Measured - MIROC - HADLEY - CSlRO
FIG 6. HISTORIC AND PROJECTED ANNUAL BIOMASS CON-
SUMED BY FIRE IN GIGATONS
Changes to Vegetation Patterns
Some of the most dramatic changes projected by the models are the new conditions that could
produce shifts in the extent and distribution of suitable conditions for four distinct vegetation
types: warm maritime evergreen needleleaf, maritime evergreen needleleaf, temperate evergreen
needleleaf, and temperate deciduous broad leaf. Descriptions of these four vegetation types are
provided below. An additional three vegetation types, which are less common across the Oregon
landscape, are also shown in Figure 7 (next page). Note that the models cannot project with
certainty the appearance of these vegetation types, but only that suitable conditions for these types
may prevail.
J_ '_____
6 Preparing for Climate Change
Warm Maritime Needleleat- This forest type is dominated by a mixture of
evergreen/deciduous and broadleaf/needleleaf woody species. It often gets
no frost in any year, but may on occasion (called subtropical mixed forests in
IPCC models). Typical species include diverse mixed pines and hardwoods,
with some frost sensitive species such as madrone and evergreen oaks.
Maritime Evergreen Needleleat - This forest type is dominated by a mixture of
evergreen/deciduous and broadleaf/needleleaf woody species. The difference
between summer and winter temperatures is relatively small; it does freeze
regularly. Coastal spruce and fir are typical, but with earlier springs there could
be an increase in deciduous trees, including oaks.
Temperate Evergreen Needleleat - This forest type is dominated by a mixture
of evergreen/deciduous and broadleaf/needleleaf woody species. The
difference between summer and winter temperatures is greater; it does freeze
regularly. Douglas fir, true firs, and ponderosa pine savannahs are typical.
Temperate Deciduous Broadleat - This forest type is dominated by deciduous
broad leaf woody species. The difference between summer and winter
temperatures is greater and it does freezes regularly. Local species of oaks,
maples, ash and other deciduous trees are typical.
By the end of the century two of the models project a dramatic increase in conditions for warm
maritime needleleaf and temperate deciduous broad leaf (Figure 7). All three models project
significant declines in the conditions for maritime evergreen needleleaf (from the 60%) baseline to 50/0
or less).
CSIRO
HADLEY
MIROC
I
~
...
=
...
1ft
:
N
I
1ft
",
C
N
an
I
N
'^
....
o
N
Legend
.. Subalpine
Forest
.. =.f
.. Temperate
DecIduous
Broadluf
Warm
Maritime
NHdIeIHf
Grassland
FIG 7. CURRENT AND FUTURE PROJECTED CONDITIONS FOR VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
THE ROGUE BASIN, AS ESTIMATED WITH THE MC 1 VEGETATION MODEL AND 3 GLOBAL CLIMATE
MODELS.
The Rogue River Basin Report 7
RISKS TO SPECIES AND ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION
The changes projected by the three climate models and MC1 vegetation model suggest
significant and unique stresses to the structure and function of ecological systems and species in
the Rogue Basin. In June of 2008, panels of aquatic and terrestrial scientists and land managers
were convened to consider the projected future climate and identify areas of the Basin most likely
to be susceptible to or buffered from climate impacts. Through these assessments, panelists
anticipated the risks to species and to ecosystem function posed by climate change.
Risks to Aquatic Species and Systems
. Increased storm and fire intensity and frequency - More intense and frequent storms
and fires are likely. These events will increase the sediment and nutrient loads, and increase
the amount of persistent organic pollutants flowing into the Rogue River and its tributaries,
particularly in granitic areas or on steep slopes. These factors, coupled with the impact of
higher summer water temperatures, lower dissolved oxygen and increased bacteria and
disease, would likely lead to a decline in water quality that is likely to reduce recruitment of
young native fishes into the adult population (especially among salmon and steelhead).
. Changes in timing of snowmelt and stream flow - As
temperatures rise, snowmelt will occur earlier in the year. Warmer
temperatures and shifts' in stream flow timing could trigger
earlier emergences of aquatic insects, and shift the timing of
adult spawning migration, egg incubation and hatch, and smolt
outmigration. These changes would raise the risk of a disconnect
between the timing of salmon and steel head fry emergence,
juvenile rearing, and smolt outmigration and the availability of each
life stage's primary and preferred food sources. Such changes
in the timing and availability of food sources also may produce
unusual intermixing of species.
Photo by Cindy Deacon Williams
. Increased water temperatures - Increased and extended summer temperatures coupled
with extended periods of lower summer baseflows are likely, leading to decreased dissolved
oxygen and increased incidence of bacteria and disease. These conditions also are likely to
cause an increase in the frequency of instream conditions lethal to native fishes by the regular
establishment of mainstem conditions analogous to those found in the lower Klamath River
during the 2002 fish kill. An expansion of the range of non-native invasive species that thrive
in warmer waters also is likely. These conditions would be exacerbated further if surface and
groundwater withdrawals for municipal and agricultural purposes are increased due to hotter
and drier weather conditions.
. Decreased habitat complexity - Increased late fall, winter, and spring precipitation occurring
during more intense storm events is likely'to reduce channel complexity by downcutting to
bedrock, eliminating riparian vegetation, causing streambank erosion, and reducing connectivity
between stream systems and floodplains/riparian wetlands. The loss of habitat complexity
likely would lead to a reduction in the capacity of streams to support biodiversity, exacerbate
flood and drought impacts, compound the effects of increased air temperature, contribute to
a contraction and drying of headwater stream networks, and increase the likelihood of quickly
emerging floods.
The Rogue River Basin Report 9
· Increased stream vulnerability - Some stream reaches are likely to be more vulnerable to
climate impacts than others. Areas identified as most susceptible to the negative effects of
climate change include: headwater streams that will experience an expansion of the portion that
flows only intermittently, high Cascade spring systems that are highly susceptible to expanded
seasonal dry periods and extended droughts, reaches in the western portion of the Rogue Basin
where past land management has increased the landscape's susceptibility to disturbance, south
and west facing headwaters prone to warming and drying, bedrock reaches that don't have
hyporheic (i.e., subsurface) flows and are more vulnerable to thermal heating, reaches within
particularly steep topography that may erode more and be more susceptible to drought, and low
gradient bedrock reaches that will be prone to warming and low flows.
· Buffered streams - In contrast, a number of areas were identified as both particularly resistant
to the detrimental pressures of climate change and resilient in the face of the disturbances
that increasingly will cause impacts. These include: reaches with gravel and biologically rich
groundwater (hyporheic flows), areas with intact floodplains and a limited human footprint, and
tributary junctions. Specific examples of areas at least partially buffered from climate change
impacts and therefore likely to provide "salmon refuges" include deep, steep places along the
California border, the Illinois and Applegate rivers, and Elk and Little Butte creeks.
Risks to Terrestrial Species and Systems
· Increased fire - Increased wildfire and longer fire seasons,
greater biomass burned, and higher elevation fires likely will
affect terrestrial vegetation and wildlife and cause sudden
shifts in ecological communities. Fire likely will be the main
driver of vegetation change. The diversity of vegetation types
after intense fires will likely be significantly different from pre-
fire conditions. Invasive or non-native species may replace
native species. Mature forest species, including Marbled
Murrelet, Northern Spotted Owl, Tailed Frog, Pacific Giant
Salamander, and Fisher, are likely to be especially affected
as fire frequency increases.
· Shifts in vegetation cover - Coniferous forest species are likely to decrease while deciduous
(especially oak) forest, grassland, and shrubland species may remain stable or increase in
response to climate change. Chaparral, grasslands, and scrublands are likely to increase in
prominence if, as projected, the Rogue Basin becomes increasingly hotter and drier. Drought-
tolerant species that may benefit include Oak, Madrone, Silktassel, and Mountain Mahogany.
· Invasive species influx - Increased abundance and distribution of both native and exotic
invasive species may be expected due to declines in native species and increasingly favorable
conditions for invasive species. Native species may see declines in available habitat and would
have little time to disperse to new areas due to the fast rate of projected climate change, thereby
leaving ecosystems ripe for invasions. Species with small ranges (such as endemics) and rare
habitat communities likely will have difficultly adapting due to the fast rate of expected change.
1,_,_
10 Preparing for Climate Change
· Increased disease - Disease and disease vectors are expected to increase due to more
favorable conditions, including warmer temperatures, drought stress, and changes in vegetation.
For example, increases in oak distribution and changes in climate variables could lead to
outbreaks of Sudden Oak Death Syndrome.
· High elevation species decline - High elevation wildlife likely will become rare as their habitat
warms and vegetation turnover occurs. Species that depend on high elevation wetlands and
meadows, such as the water vole and American Pipit, would not be expected to survive in the
area. Other species at risk include Clark's Nutcracker, Evening Grosbeak, Townsend's Solitaire,
Boreal Owl, Pileated Woodpecker, Sooty Grouse (previously Blue Grouse), and Olive-sided
Flycatcher. High elevation vegetation, including hemlock and native wildflowers, will also be
at risk. Brewer's spruce, an endemic conifer and relic from the ice age, is restricted to high
elevation areas and very prone to fire, putting it at risk of decline due to climate change.
· Amphibian decline - Some amphibians are expected to decline due to their lack of mobility,
affinity for unique microsites, and susceptibility to drought, heat, and habitat change, while
others may benefit from warmer temperatures. In addition, increasing temperatures will allow
introduced species such as warm water fish, crayfish, and particularly bullfrogs to move higher in
the watershed and expand into high elevation refugia.
· Changes in timing - Changes in plant growth, flowering, and fruiting times may disrupt
traditional relationships for migration, breeding, and flowering. Long-distance avian migrants
will be especially a~ risk of missing the times when food is most abundance which is vital for
reproduction because their migrations are timed to the length of the day rather than temperature.
RISKS TO PEOPLE, COMMUNITY, AND THE ECONOMY
The projected climate stresses on natural systems in the Rogue Basin are likely to have significant
consequences for its people, communities and economy. In June 2008, a panel of government
officials, business leaders and citizens examined the likely ecological changes and projected the
possible consequences on social and economic well-being in the Rogue Basin.
Risks to Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Buildings and Real Estate
Many of the buildings and infrastructure in the Rogue Basin are located in high-risk floodplains and
in narrow, steeply sloped forested canyons. The topography of the Basin therefore exacerbates the
potential for millions of dollars of direct and indirect damage to buildings and real estate. The direct
costs will result from flood events and anticipated increases
in wildfire intensity and frequency due to climate change.
The indirect costs are likely to be many times larger than the
direct impacts, and will result from more rapid depreciation of
property from higher temperatures, more intense storms and
other climate stresses. (Josephine County has a total value of
all taxable property of $6.5 billion and Jackson County has a
$15 billion value of taxable property [Josephine County 2005;
Jackson County 2008]).
Photo by Cindy Deacon Williams
The Rogue River Basin Report 11
Oregon ranks third among western states in the number of homes built in forested areas next
to public lands, but ranks near the bottom (10th) in the percentage of those homes that are only
seasonally occupied (Headwaters Economics 2007). Several of the most severely at-risk counties
among western states are in parts of southwestern Oregon that overlap the Southern Cascade
mountain range. These counties are at risk in terms of existing risk of wildfire (number of square
miles of the wildland/urban interface with homes) and potential future risk (number of square miles
of urban/wildland interface that remain undeveloped). Jackson County, with 82 square miles,
and Josephine County, with 119.1 square miles, have the greatest number of square miles of
developed land in the urban/wildland interface in Oregon.
Transportation
Road and air transportation are vital to the Rogue Basin's diverse economy. Josephine County
has 560 miles of maintained roadways and 195 bridges/structures. Jackson County has more than
700 miles of paved roads. Coos and Curry Counties have about 260 miles of paved roads (AOC
2007). The Oregon Department of Transportation maintains approximately 2,300 lane miles in the
two county area of the upper Basin (ODOT). In addition, the USDA Forest Service and the Bureau
of Land Management manage a significant forest road network in the four county area. The Rogue
Valley International-Medford Airport currently services eight hubs. In 2008, four air carriers serviced
the airport with approximately 56 arriving and departing flights daily.
Severe flooding caused by storm and rain events as well as increased forest fires are likely to
impact roads and impair movement of persons and equipment during storm emergencies. The most
susceptible roads will be those bordering rivers and streams, or running through valley bottomlands
as well as those in the vicinity of unstable slopes. Air transport may also be affected by increased
storms and smoke intrusion from wildfires. In addition, efforts to raise taxes to fund mass transit in
response to the need for greenhouse gas reductions may place increased financial pressures on
communities, but also may facilitate more concentrated development.
Water Supply
The availability of water is critical for agriculture and municipal purposes in the Rogue Basin.
The Rogue River and its tributaries may already be over-
appropriated: according to the Jackson County Water Study,
a conservative estimate shows a 2963 acre-feet/year surface
water deficit by 2050, and the report did not even consider
the potential impacts of climate change on water demand,
snowpack, run-off, and resultant reservoir storage (Jackson
County, 2002). The demand for groundwater is not expected
to increase dramatically in the future because of lower rural
population growth and increased urbanization (urban areas rely
on surface water).
Photo by Cindy Deacon Williams
Flashier winter storm events and flooding, however, and more severe sum-
mer droughts are likely. As a result, water scarcity is likely to become more
common, especially in summer and fall. These changes will increasingly challenge the physical
and institutional capacity for water storage and allocation in the Rogue Basin. Pressure on already
limited off-stream water storage will increase, particularly in the summer months.
L__
12 Preparing for Climate Change
Increasing competition for limited water supplies will likely amplify rural-urban tensions over the
historical legacy of water rights, apportionment and pricing policies.
Ashland is likely to be especially vulnerable because of its dependence on reservoir capacity. More
frequent higher intensity rain events are likely to reduce water quality as sediments and chemicals
leech from the soil with more runoff. Valley floors will be particularly susceptible to these impacts.
Energy Systems
The electrical power and transmission sectors play important roles in delivering a reliable supply
of energy that is vital to support the Rogue Basin's growing population and diverse economy. The
power system is likely to face increased stress due to the likelihood of more intense storms, heat
waves, and more frequent fires.
The City of Ashland Electric Department has provided power to the community since 1908. Power
is purchased from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), metered at distribution substations
and dispersed for each customer through city-owned feeder and distribution lines, transformers,
and meters. BPA's power mix is primarily hydroelectric, with nuclear and other sources mixed in.
Pacific Power provides electricity to Medford and Grants Pass. In 2007,640/0 of Pacific Power's
energy supply came from coal, 8.50/0 from natural gas, and 9.80/0 from hydro. The company projects
that by 2016,43.40/0 will come from coal, 17.40/0 from gas and about the same percent from hydro
(Pacific Power 2007). The Coos-Curry Electric Cooperative purchases its power from BPA and
serves more than 14,000 members and 16,500 meters in Coos, Curry and Douglas Counties. It has
more than 1,500 miles of line, including 51 miles of transmission lines between Gold Beach and
Brookings.
The Columbia River hydroelectric system, as well as local hydroelectricity systems, will face
significant challenges in coming years due to increasing seasonal variability of water. Summer
power capacity will likely be reduced as streamflows are reduced and reservoirs depleted during
summer droughts due to reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt. At the same time, the demands
for electricity will likely increase as rising temperatures expand the use of air conditioning. The City
of Ashland may be especially vulnerable to these effects because it purchases power from BPA,
which is dominated by hydroelectricity.
Wildfires are also likely to affect hydroelectric supply due to increased sediment deposition into
rivers and streams that reduces reservoir capacity. Fires may also reduce the supply of forest and
agricultural residues that is needed to fuel biomass-based energy production. Both increased storm
activity and wildfires may impair high voltage electrical transmission lines and distribution systems.
In addition, high air temperatures decrease the efficiency of electrical distribution wires.
Demographic changes such as rising numbers of people moving to the Rogue Basin, as well as
economic changes, such as possible growth of plug-in-hybrid vehicles that leads to increased
electricity needs, would place even greater stress on local energy systems.
The Rogue River Basin Report 13
Risks to Economic Systems
The economy of the Rogue Basin, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, or tourism, is highly
dependent on stored water for hydropower generation, irrigation, and municipal water supply
during hot and dry periods. With warmer temperatures and more extended dry periods predicted
by the climate scenarios, this dependency is likely to lead to water shortages. The economy also
depends on transportation networks that facilitate incoming supplies and the outgoing distribution
of goods and services. These systems are likely to be adversely affected by increased storm
events and wildfires.
The economic base in Jackson County is varied and growing, and government is the largest
employer. Health care constitutes the largest single employment group in the private sector,
and retail (including mail-order businesses) is the second largest employer, followed by tourism,
agriculture, manufacturing, and timber. In Josephine County, health care and social assistance,
manufacturing, and retail are the largest of twenty major economic sectors. Visitor accommodation
and food services, manufacturing, retail, and health care and social assistance are the largest
of twenty major sectors in Curry County. In this section the focus is primarily on the impacts of
projected climate change on agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, retail and tourism.
Agriculture
Agriculture has always played an important
role in the economy of the Rogue River Basin.
High value fruits, including wine grapes
and other crops, form the backbone of the
agricultural economy in the upper Basin.
The industry employs about 2500 people
directly and 9000 indirectly through value
added processing, agriculture related goods
and services, and Josephine, Jackson and
Curry Counties produce about $141 million
in farm and ranch sales (Oregon Department
of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics
Service 2007). Rising land prices, however,
caused by accelerating population and
economic growth have placed increased stress
on local producers. Climate change will add
additional stresses.
Disruptions in the timing and quantity of flows
will reduce already over-appropriated surface
water supply. In addition, ground water will be
affected by drought. Even with 30,000 acre feet
already imported from Klamath County, senior
water right holders may face limited water
supply.
Grapevine ClimBteIMaturity Groupings
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. .
Average Gr~\'ing Season Te~rSllure {NH ~r~; SH Od-Aprl
55 e9"F 60 - E3eF 63 - 66"F 66-72" F
I 'AlliEr-I h ~ 1:..
"'Inot Gna
14 Preparing for Climate Change
so
2.5DF
Raisins
L-J Leaclt,::t :elar.g,e iftdI:*~ It.e !din:t.ed:ipW1d r/pe;:1klcto,- tba/;,'"3ri!1aI
FIG 8. PREDICTED CHANGES IN GRAPE GROWING SEASON FOR
WILLAMETTE V ALLEY, EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN
OREGON. (JONES 2007)
Higher temperatures likely will reduce the viability of pears and wine grapes, particularly in
Jackson County's pinot noir vineyards in the Illinois Valley. Higher temperatures also generally
will stress many crops, although increased atmospheric C02 may have positive effects on water
use efficiency in plants, thereby increasing plant productivity. Reduced availability of water will
limit use of hydro cooling. Warmer and wetter spring months may lead to conditions for pear
blight. Greg Jones, Southern Oregon University geography professor and private vintner, has
commented that climate influences the style of wine that a region can produce. Each variety
is generally grown in specific regions and narrow climatic zones for optimum quality and
production, according to Jones. Wine varieties in their optimum zones have consistent sugar
level, ripe flavors, and balanced taste. Warmer and longer growing seasons, while reducing
frost damage, will alter ripening profiles and increase sugar levels resulting in excessive alcohol
content. Warmer temperatures will also change plant disease and pest timing and severity, with
uncertain results. Reduction in soil fertility and erosion are also anticipated. Viable zones in
southwest Oregon will likely shift toward the coast, northward, and upward in elevation. Wine
grape production may largely disappear in the Rogue Valley region by 2100 except in a narrow
zone along the coast. How a moderate 2.50 F warming may cause a shift in varieties suitable for
the Rogue Basin is illustrated in Figure 8 . For example, high value Pinot Noir and Chardonnay
varieties will be replaced by lower value Merlots and Grenaches (Jones 2007).
Pollinators may be affected by climate change induced disease. Higher numbers of insects may
lead to increases in pesticide use and reduced water quality. Large and small growers may both
be vulnerable. Large growers with monocultures will be more susceptible to disease; growers
that rely on single crops are likely to be more at risk financially than growers with diverse array of
crops. Growers may need to shift to different crops, and new varieties and types of crops will need
to be planted. Production may need to be shifted to cooler, higher elevations. This would require
changes in land-use patterns and regulation. A shift to putting more cattle and sheep on public
lands in response to drought may impair water quality in upland streams. Horse farms are likely to
face reduced pasturage options and higher feed costs due to rising costs for water.
Forestry
Forestry has historically been an important driver of the economy in the Rogue River Basin. Today,
the forestry industry in the Rogue River Basin employs approximately 290/0 of all of the forest
sector jobs for Oregon. In southern Oregon, 3,370 people are employed in timber tract operations,
forest nurseries, gathering of timber products, and logging, and approximately 21,400 people work
in forest related manufacturing (OED).
Reduced snowpack, rising temperatures and the occurrence of drought will likely decrease soil
moisture, weaken trees and increase disease. These forces will make forests more susceptible
to wildfires, which will likely cause forestry product production to decline. A longer wildfire season
may further narrow the window for harvesting trees.
Social pressure to rely on forests for carbon sequestration is likely to exacerbate these stresses.
The likelihood of increased frequency and intensity of wildfire may place supply limits and higher
costs on the production of biomass energy. The current shift to small diameter logs requires
markets, mills and other infrastructure, and a transportation and electric infrastructure. These
features are already limited and may be further restricted by climate change impacts.
The Rogue River Basin Report 15
Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors
In the past decades Jackson and Josephine counties have diversified their economies. The principle
industries today include the manufacturing of durable goods, retail trade, and health services.
Coastal communities are less diverse, with the economy relying heavily on natural resource
industries such as commercial fishing, agriculture, lumber and wood products, as well as tourism
and sport fishing.
It is likely that fuel costs will rise because of policies that require greenhouse gas reductions and
that electricity costs will be higher because of reduced summer hydroelectric supply. These factors
may affect many facets of the manufacturing, retail, and service economies. In addition, the climate
impacts on tran,sportation and the more restrictive use of water are likely to affect these sectors.
Water supply reductions will require the balancing of municipal and agriculture water demands and
will particularly affect municipalities that sell water, such as Ashland. Josephine County is vulnerable
to reductions in water supply because it has only two municipal water systems and a large number
of groundwater wells.
Hotter summer temperatures, increased allergens, and poor air quality (due to rising temperatures
and smoke intrusion from wildfire) are.likely to adversely affect the health of the local workforce.
These factors may also impair conditions now favorable to attracting retired persons. Greenhouse
gas reduction measures, however, that lead to cleaner vehicles, more mass transit, and the use of
renewable energy could have positive impacts on public health in the Rogue Basin.
The optimal tourist season may shift as extreme temperatures make summers less attractive to
people, while milder fall, winter and spring weather may prove more appealing. Reduced snow
pack will shorten winter recreation seasons for skiing and snowboarding. Increased fire, smoke,
and stream sediment may, over time, reduce the attractiveness of camping and recreational fishing.
Declines in wildlife populations and intact habitats could cause declines in tourism, hunting, and
other recreational activities. These changes would affect the entire recreational service sector and
their suppliers.
Risks to Public Health and Emergency Services
Public Health Services
Rising temperatures, particularly in the summer, will likely produce higher incidences of heat-related
illnesses such as heat stroke and exhaustion. Lack of air conditioning, a circumstance found today in
a significant proportion of homes, will increasingly playa role in the incidence of heat-related illness
in the Basin. The elderly, infirm, and poor are likely to be most at risk because they may lack funds
to pay for air conditioning or health care, and because increased warming and air pollution may
exacerbate pre-existing diseases and illnesses.
Amplified heat will also lead to more respiratory illnesses from higher ozone levels and increased
pollens and allergens; the occurrence of asthma is also likely to grow. Asthma is already
considerably more prevalent in Oregon than the U.S. average. The estimated percentage of the
population affected by asthma between 2002 and 2005 was 7.1 - 9.9% in Jackson County; in
, Josephine County 8.1 - 13.50/0; in Coos County 6.8 - 11.1010; and in Curry County 5.4 - 12.2% of the
population was affected (Oregon Asthma Surveillance Report 2007).
16 Preparing for Climate Change
Vector and water-borne diseases also are likely to increase. Warmer waters will bring elevated
numbers of mosquitoes that may carry diseases such as Lyme disease, West Nile virus and
malaria, which was endemic in the Rogue Basin in the 19th century. Infection most frequently
occurs between May and November, with peak incidence in June and July.
Lyme disease is a multisystem inflammatory disease caused by the bite of the western black-
legged tick. The Center for Disease Control (CD C) states that Lyme disease is grossly under-
diagnosed by at least 10 fold. In 2006 Oregon experienced nineteen human cases with seventeen
(890/0) occurring west of the Cascades. In 2006 Jackson County had the second highest incident
rate in the state at 2.5-6.2 per 1000, Josephine County had 0.3-0.96 per 1000, and Coos and
Curry County's had between 0 and 0;29 per 1000 incidences (Oregon DHS 2006). Ticks occur
primarily in oak woodlands and chapparal settings; therefore with the vegetation projections
showing increases in these forest ecosystems, occurance of ticks is also likel to spread.
West Nile virus (WNV) is carried by mosquitoes and can infect humans, horses, and birds.
Across the state, twenty-seven humans, over seventy animals ranging from birds to horses, and
thirty-two mosquito ponds were diagnosed or identified in 2007 as being infected by WNV (Oregon
DHS 2007). Warmer water temperatures are likely to increase the months of the year that will
support high adult mosquito populations. WNV may therefore become more common in Oregon.
Alternatively, declines in potential breeding sites due to increased drought and evaporation could
keep the incidence of WNV from increasing.
The increased frequency and severity of forest fires pose a public safety hazard and also degrade
air quality. The two extremes of flooding and drought will degrade water quality for municipal
water supplies and ground water. These factors may affect water quality for human consumption
Emergency Services
Increased storm intensity, flooding and wildfire are likely to place greater demands on emergency
service providers in the Rogue Basin. A major demographic shift is likely to exacerbate these
pressures as drought, fire, flooding and other extreme weather events encourage people to move
from rural to urban areas to be closer to emergency services and service sector jobs.
Emergency service and public health providers, already facing shrinking financial support because
of declines in timber revenues tax bases, will also see increasing demands for funding and
resources. If the impacts are not headline grabbing disasters, but chronically frequent smaller
events, additional funding may be difficult to obtain.
At Risk Areas and and Vulnerable Populations
The populations most vulnerable to flooding will be those living in portions of inland valley bottoms
(e.g., portions of Ashland, Medford, Central Point, Grants Pass, Applegate area, and Cave
Junction within the floodplain) and in steep canyons in forested areas where flooding is likely to be
most severe. The most vulnerable to increased air pollution will be those living in the Bear Creek
Valley. Low income populations in rural areas are often the most susceptible to wildfires and
flooding and have the most difficult time recovering after such events due to lack of healthcare and
property insurance.
The Rogue River Basin Report 17
Greenhouse gas reduction policies that lead to higher fuel prices will limit the mobility of low-income
rural residents and further contribute to the vulnerability of rural populations.
Buffered Areas and Populations
Some segments of the population will be less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. High-
income persons are likely to carry adequate health, fire, and flood insurance and be better
informed about strategies to cope with stressors. Individuals, families, and communities that are
self-sufficient in food, energy, and water will be more resilient. Populations in larger urban areas,
while vulnerable to flooding in the Rogue Basin, also may have access to quality city services.
Generally, those communities that are well connected to each other through reliable transportation
and communications systems and that have strong social bonds will be most buffered from climate
change impacts.
Summary
The consequences of climate change for built, economic and human systems in the Rogue River
Basin are likely to be significant: if no action is taken, damages could amount to millions of dollars
in direct costs. The indirect costs, along with reduced quality-of-life, may be 5-10 times larger
than this direct costs. Preparation can help lessen these impacts, while also reducing the direct
production of greenhouse gas emissions and increase the capacity of forests and agriculture to
sequester carbon and thus help restabilize the climate. It should be noted that the Rogue Basin
will not be alone in experiencing the consequences of climate change. Every region of the West,
nation and world will be affected.
Photo by City of Ashland
18 Preparing for Climate Change
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INCREASING RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE
THROUGH INTEGRATED Co-BENEFICIAL CLIMATE PREPARATION
PLANS AND POLICIES
Preparing for the consequences of climate change should
become a priority for every government, business, and
households of the Rogue Basin. Preparation actions should
start with consideration of likely future conditions in both
ongoing and future planning processes, projects, and
policies. The goal should be to proactively build resilience
or resistance in an integrated manner so that natural,
economic, built and human systems can withstand and adapt
to climate stressors. Resistance building strategies increase
the capacity of systems to withstand the negative effects of
climate change. Resilience building strategies develop the
capacity of systems to adapt to and recover from climate
change impacts.
Photo by Kevin Schafer
The Need for Integrated, Co-Beneficial, Climate Preparation Plans and Policies
Integrating preparation plans and policies means that efforts to prepare one system or sector for
climate change should enhance, and not undermine, preparation effort in other areas. To achieve
this preparation plans and policies should be carefully coordinated with, and be designed so that
they provide co-benefits for, other preparation efforts. Instead, integrated preparation plans and
policies should be coordinated with, and provide co-benefits for, other preparation efforts. Well-
meaning efforts to build resistance to likely future water shortages, for example, can very easily
undermine long term water supplies and ecological health. Decisions to build more dams to increase
water storage block fish passage and prevent water from recharging floodplain hyporheic zones,
thus increasing the consequences of climate stresses on the humans and aquatic organisms that
rely on healthy floodplains. In addition, constrained floodplains are less capable of buffering flood
events. Tree removal conducted with the goal of increasing streamflow is likely to degrade the water
holding capacity of watersheds and increase sedimentation, thus reducing, rathern than increasing,
water supply.
Great care should be taken to ensure that all current management plans and policies, as well as
climate preparation strategies are well-coordinated, ecologically sound, and provide co-benefits for
other sectors within the Rogue Basin.
Preparation for Aquatic Species and Systems
A number of strategies could be employed to build resistance and resilience within aquatic species
and ecosystems to prepare for climate change in the Rogue Basin. The overall goal should be
to focus management activities on protecting, and where needed, restoring the functional and
structural characteristics and organisms that represent critical underpinnings for the overall system.
Many of the recommended actions represent best management and conservation practices that
become even more important under climate change. Other recommendations are new and result
from the special focus on the likely consequences of climate change. Implementation of these
actions should be a high priority in the immediate future and across broad scales.
The Rogue River Basin Report 19
The expert panelists identified the following as the most important and effective approaches:
· Reduce current stressors - Existing stressors, such as livestock grazing along riparian
areas, logging of old growth forests and riparian areas that reduce stream side shading,
floodplain development, and road building that contributes to chronic inputs of sediments
to streams, are likely to compound climate change impacts. Many existing management
practices aimed at reducing current stresses on aquatic systems also generate the additional
benefit of minimizing ecological stress induced by climate change. Protection and restoration
of floodplains (including the connections between streams, riparian areas and floodplains), for
example, will help increase underground water storage, reduce the effects of sudden floods,
and ameliorate the impact of drought. These steps will help prevent scouring of streams, while
also reducing the impacts of floods on humans and maintaining stream flows for longer time
periods. Restoration and protection of tributary junctions, north-facing streams, and reaches
with gravel and high topographic complexity will also provide multiple benefits and should be
a priority. These areas of aquatic systems are most able to resist climate induced disturbance
events that could cause ecosystems to unravel, and will become increasingly important as
headwater stream networks contract due to reduced snowpack. Many existing management
practices should be used to protect these areas, such as establishing or expanding protective
zones and restricting development.
· Restore channel complexity and connectivity - The restoration and maintenance of stream
channel complexity and connectivity should become a priority. Complex channel habitats, often
created by stream flows working on large woody debris, are better able to support healthy
native fish populations and limit the establishment and spread of invasive species. Removing
up- and downstream passage barriers, including dams that were constructed for specific
purposes and diversion structures as well as accidental passage barriers resulting from poorly
designed road crossings and culverts, allows native fish to seek out suitable habitat and
access it as needed on a yearly, seasonal, and daily basis. Efforts to restore complexity and
connectivity often can be the most efficient means of increasing resilience and resistance in
aquatic systems and should be prioritized.
· Restore key biodiversity hot spots - The restoration and protection of high elevation
riparian areas and biodiversity "hot spots" will be vital (e.g., locations where species richness
or endemicity is especially high), especially in the near and mid-term. Species with restricted
ranges such as endemic mollusks and some salamanders and unique habitat requirements
are likely to be the most vulnerable to extinction in the face of climate-induced changes, and
therefore need our immediate conservation attention. By maintaining recruitment rates and
genetic diversity, we will increase the likelihood that vulnerable species will be able to survive
climate-related changes.
· Protect genetic diversity - Greater variety of genetic and life history diversity among fish and
aquatic organisms will increase the likelihood for species to adapt to and survive future climate
stresses. Fisheries management efforts therefore should prioritize the protection of the genetic
and life history diversity of native fishes. Special effort should be given to strengthening
"weak" stocks so as to increase the likelihood that their genetic diversity and novel life history
components are present during the coming century. Fish hatcheries that reduce diversity
should be closed. Higher levels of complexity in stock assemblages have proven more capable
of sustaining viable populations in the face of increased environmental stress.
20 Preparing for Climate Change
· Manage runoff - Urban, septic, and road (urban, highway, and forest) runoff should be
managed so it does not increase the burden on aquatic organisms, and humans, due to likely
climate-induced water quality problems. Runoff from these sources already adds significant
sediment, persistent organic pollutants, and pharmaceuticals to aquatic systems in the Rogue
Basin. If and when storm events increase, greater effort will be needed to ensure that surface
runoff does not move even more contaminants in greater "flushes" from surrounding uplands
into the Basin's rivers, streams, lakes, and wetlands. In addition, efforts should be made to
reduce the quantity of contaminants in the environment that are susceptible to being flushed
into the Basin's waters. Wetlands protection should be enforced and 'green' urban planning
strongly encouraged.
· Protect groundwater - Ground water sources and recharge areas should be identified and
protected. Ground and surface withdrawals should be limited to ensure adequate instream
flows are maintained. Water rights law may need to be adjusted to account for the longer
periods of drought and low flows expected from climate change. The reintroduction of beavers
in appropriate locations within the Basin, especially in compatible high elevation wetlands, may
help increase natural water storage.
Preparation for Terrestrial Species and Systems
Terrestrial species of plants and wildlife could benefit from a variety of actions that would
increase their resistance and resilience to climate change in the Rogue Basin. Similar to aquatic
systems, the immediacy of necessary action and broad scale application was emphasized. Our
expert panelists recommended the following steps:
· Reduce current stressors - Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing stresses on
terrestrial systems and species. The less stress a system or
organism faces, the more likely it is that they can withstand
or adapt to the impacts posed by climate change. Current
stressors that could be reduced, with substantial benefits to
wildlife, include habitat fragmentation, poorly planned and
located road construction, unsustainable timber harvest, air
and water pollution and contamination, the loss of keystone
species, introduction of invasive species, and the conversion of
forests, riparian areas and floodplains to urban and suburban
development.
~~~ '" -...........
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4' 4" "';. ..
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Photo by Josh Williams
· Maintain forest resistance and resilience through strategic use
of fire and fuels reduction - Natural forest function and structure
allows for increased resistance and adaptation to climate impacts, whereas large-scale
uncharacteristically severe fire is likely to act as a catalyst for ecosystem change. Efforts to
increase forest function, diversity, and resistance to catastrophic fire through, for example,
the use of strategic fire, replanting with diverse native species, and strategically planned
and carefully executed fuel reduction will be important. "Strategic fire" could include the use
of prescribed burning to maintain habitats that were historically fire dependent or tactical
management of wildland fires (e.g., developing a policy for fire suppression that takes into
consideration habitat types and risks such as proximity to residential areas and endangered
species). The panel noted that the use of strategic fire is difficult in some areas (e.g., the urban-
wildland interface) making fuels reduction pragmatic and necessary in these areas.
The Rogue River Basin Report 21
· Protect remaining intact ecosystems - The remaining intact habitats within the Rogue Basin
are likely to be most able to withstand and adapt to likely climate impacts. They are also likely
to serve as a much needed source of shelter and food for native
wildlife, as well as a source of native colonizers that will repopulate
areas undergoing ecological turnover. Remaining old growth
forests and roadless areas should therefore be a conservation
priority because of their greater resilience to disturbance.
Land management plans should also seek to conserve forest
connectivity to allow species to migrate in response to climate
change impacts. Connectivity allowing for upslope and northward
movement should be given priority.
· Maintain connectivity - The maintenance of existing riparian
forest connectivity, especially along north-south corridors, should
be a priority. This means avoiding large gaps in riparian corridors
because connected systems will provide much needed resilience PholobyKenCrocker
in drier, warmer conditions and facilitate species migration in response to
changing climate conditions. In the same vein, the panel recommended
that habitat connectivity along elevational gradients and ridge tops be maintained, as these
areas will facilitate shifts in migration and species distribution in response to changing climatic
conditions.
· Protect ecosystem services - Ecosystem services are benefits that people gain from
functioning ecosystems, such as the provision of ample supplies of clean water and clean air,
decomposition of waste and toxins, plant pollination and natural flood control. Land and stream
reaches that provide critical support for ecosystem services should be identified, protected and
restored. For example, some floodplains hold important biologically rich groundwater beneath
them (called hyporheic zones) that are critical to supporting surface flows as well as biodiversity.
The protection of these and other areas that are essential to the provision of ecosystem services
in the Rogue Basin will be even more essential as climate change generates increased stress
on these systems. In addition, beaver populations should be maintained and increased in many
reaches because the work they do in aquatic systems helps support high- to mid-elevation water
storage and slower release during snowmelt, in addition to providing biologically rich habitat for
songbirds and other species of plants and animals.
· Maintain biological diversity - Biological diversity, including both species and genetic diversity,
allows for greater ecological function over long time scales, thereby increasing ecosystem
resistance and resilience to climate change. Management plans should explicitly incorporate the
conservation of biological diversity. Some experts suggested seed banks as one way to contribute
to this effort. When developing species conservation plans, the probability of long-term success
in the face of climate change stressors should be considered. The panel of experts suggested
a triage approach to species management may be necessary, thereby giving higher priority to
species with a greater likelihood of survival in a warming climate.
· Translocation - Only local and unique terrestrial species, or those that fulfill a vital functional role,
should be considered for translocations. Many species will be unable to disperse fast enough
to track their suitable climate or will be prevented from dispersing due to habitat fragmentation.
22 Preparing for Climate Change
Because translocations may spread disease and produce other unknown ecological effects,
they should be considered a last resort. Decisions should be thoroughly vetted within the
scientific community in order to prevent undesirable impacts.
· Adjust timber harvest strategies - Timber harvest plans should incorporate likely climate
impacts regarding the potential for, and uncertainties in, future regrowth, productivity and fire.
Because of the likely increase in fire, major shifts in vegetation types, and other climate stresses
the forests of the Rogue Basin are likely to experience, timber harvest strategies should
undergo a fundamental shift to explicitly prioritize maintaining species diversity, genetic diversity
and ecological integrity.
· Adjust land use planning policy - Increased habitat fragmentation and the conversion of
open space, forest (especially older forest), and floodplains to hard surfaces and homesites will
make it more difficult for natural systems and species to withstand and adapt to climate impacts.
Local, state and federal government agencies in the Rogue Basin should include considerations
of climate change impacts when making land use planning decisions. The panel felt that further
development in the urban-wildland interface outside of urban growth areas, and the expansion
of agriculture in a number of areas, would likely make climate preparedness more difficult in the
future. Changes in land use policies will be necessary to prevent loss of habitat, life and other
impacts to communities during extreme events such as floods, drought, and fire.
· Increase data collection, monitoring, flexibility and scientific integrity of land, water, and
wildlife management - Few land management agencies currently have systems in place that
allow them to gather and evaluate appropriate data and make decisions quickly in response
to rapidly changing climate conditions. A sound monitoring system for both native and invasive
species, with alternative management actions mapped out, will be vital in order for changes in
populations to be detected quickly enough that management can adapt. New types of monitoring,
assessment and decision making systems (based on a scenario planning approach) should be
developed to allow for timely detection of, and response to, climate change trends.
For both aquatic and terrestrial species, the protection and maintenance of biodiversity "hot spots"
(e.g., locations where species richness or endemicity is especially high), especially in the near
and mid-term will be vital. Species with restricted ranges, such as endemic mollusks and some
salamanders, and unique habitat requirements are likely to be the most vulnerable to extinction in
the face of climate-induced changes, and therefore need our immediate conservation attention. By
maintaining recruitment rates and genetic diversity, we will increase the likelihood that vulnerable
species will be able to survive climate-related changes.
Preparation Strategies for Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Many elements of the built environment and infrastructure in the Rogue River Basin will
require climate preparation strategies. The panel focused specifically on recommendations for
transportation, water supply, and energy systems and provided suggestions for preparing general
infrastructu re.
The Rogue River Basin Report 23
· Transportation -Runoff and flooding are likely to produce major stresses on roads and other
aspects of the transportation system. Preparation strategies should focus on upgrading
culverts so they can pass larger amounts of water and instituting a regular maintenance
program to clean culverts to prevent debris clogs. Arterial routes should draw special attention
because they are likely to provide vital sources of access when slides, flooding, or fire
block other routes. Across the Basin transportation routes should be connected with public
transportation nodes and hubs as much as possible to allow people and vital equipment to
move about in emergencies. To facilitate efforts to concentrate people and development in
low risk areas, density targets should be tied to transportation funding and a shift in priorities
should focus financial resources on public transportation rather than on further extension of
transport networks focused on single vehicles. Public outreach should educate members of the
community about transportation and climate issues.
· Water supply - Water conservation and efficiency policies should be strengthened and funded.
In agricultural areas, policies, incentives, and mandates should support a shift to drip irrigation
In urban
and other systems that minimize water demand. Agricultural canals should be piped.
areas, policies, incentives, and mandates should support
xeroscaping, a shift from lawns to gardens, and a reduction
in household water use. Construction of bioswales (and
other approaches that decrease impermeable surfaces
and/or minimizing development induced changes in
the hydrograph) and the use of "grey" water should be
widely instituted. Riparian and floodplain buffers should
be amplified, perhaps coordinated with increased use of
conservation easements, to increase the natural "sponge"
capacity of the landscape. Water conservation and
efficiency outreach efforts should be expanded.
Photo by Cindy Deacon Williams
· Energy systems - New pol.icies should support upgraded
and expanded energy conservation and efficiency efforts with the goal of dramatically
reducing energy demand by increasing retrofits in existing buildings and energy efficiency in
new construction. Expanded use of energy audits and incentives could be used to facilitate
this process. Incentives to residential and commercial users aimed at increasing the use of
renewable energy such as wind, biomass and solar power, improved home insulation, and the
purchase of energy star appliances should be extended and expanded. Policy makers should
also clarify the policy authorizing net-metering (the ability of residential and commercial energy
producers to sell power back to the grid).
· Buildings, structures and real estate - To cover the upfront costs of incorporating green
elements (e.g., bioswales, riparian setbacks, etc.) in project design, the development of a basin-
specific "green development" revolving fund should be considered that provides low-interest
construction loans to developers. FEMA flood maps should be revisited and adjustments made
as necessary given the likelihood of increased flooding due to future climate conditions. Policies
should be adopted to keep new permanent structures out of the floodplain and high fire risk
interface areas, and to relocate permanent structures already located in those areas to safer
areas if and when they are damaged by flood or fire.
24 Preparing for Climate Change
Preparation Strategies for Economic Systems
The panelists offered recommendations for preparing agriculture, forestry, manufacturing, and
service sectors for the impacts of climate change.
· Agriculture - The agriculture sector will likely do well to maintain production of existing crops as
long as possible, while also initiating research into new crops and markets prior to the time when
the need to transition to new crops is required due to changing climate conditions. Introduction
of more drought tolerant crops is likely to be key. Of course, knowing when the transition will be
mandatory will be difficult, so efforts should begin immediately.
Farmers will benefit from land and water use policies that protect agricultural land from urbani
rural sprawl and encourage efficient water use (e.g., efficient irrigation practices and low
water demand crop selection). Policymakers should consider policies that expand sustainable
agricultural practices, especially those that reduce pesticide and water use, erosion and stream
sedimentation (e.g., no-till farming), and develop incentives to support development and
maintenance of a local food supply. The former will increase the resiliency of soils and streams
to climate stresses. The later step provides a buffer against climate-induced disruptions in food
production outside of the Rogue Basin.
The existing water rights system should be reexamined, groundwater resources and well
capacity assessed, and existing permits and licenses reevaluated to avoid over-appropriation.
Current policies and allocations were based on historic conditions that are certain to be very
different as the Rogue Basin experiences the consequences of climate change. Adjustments
to water laws and allocation systems are certain to be needed. It will be essential to establish
a rational, integrated allocation of ground and surface water resources that is consistent with
climate change predictions. Farmers may also benefit economically by focusing their lands on
carbon sequestration.
. Forestry - The local industry already has increasinglyshifted to small diameter logs, and milling
is now substantially done out of the area. This transition is likely to continue, with forestry
becoming an ever less significant contributor to the Basin's economy. Research efforts should
focus on evaluating how predicted climate-induced changes in vegetative patterns will impact
this ongoing transition. Forestry management practices should be adjusted to ensure that they
encompass climate-induced changes and enhance, rather than degrade, the landscape's ability
to provide a buffer against the greater seasonal, annual, and decadal variability in temperature
and precipitation as well as against the increased likelihood of severe storm and fire events.
With the likelihood of increasing frequency and intensity of forest fires, post-fire logging activities
should be carefully examined for impacts on carbon release and ecological disturbance. Policies
should integrate fuel reduction efforts with small-scale biomass energy production, and research
should focus on resolving practical problems related to the use of cellulosic ethanol. Biomass
energy production also contributes to climate change mitigation as, unlike fossil fuels, it is carbon
neutral over the life cycle of the vegetation consumed in the production of energy. However,
harvest for biomass fuel supply, or as a component of any other thinning practice, should be
implemented only if ecological and species integrity of aquatic environments and terrestrial
landscapes is maintained..
The Rogue River Basin Report 25
· Manufacturing - Manufacturers in the Rogue Basin will have to develop strategies to protect
their energy supplies, reduce their dependence on water, and increase their resilience to
possible disruptions in transportation. They may also need to consider ways to protect to their
energy supplies, to reduce their dependence on water, increase their resilience to projected
disruptions in transportation, and consider ways to protect their workforce from possible
health and stress effects of climate change. Instituting aggressive energy, water and materials
conservation and efficiency strategies would make firms less susceptible to rising costs for
energy and materials. The installation of on-site energy production such as solar photovoltaic or
high-efficiency thermal biomass systems can provide valuable backups in times of blackouts or
other disruptions in energy supplies while also acting as a counterforce to rising energy prices.
The use of solar hot water systems can substantially cut energy consumption for the heating of
hot water. These steps would also promote the growth of renewable energy jobs in the Rogue
Basin. Shortening and developing redundant supply chains can help protect manufacturers from
disruptions in material and transportation. Firms that take proactive steps to ameliorate the likely
health threats that climate change poses for their employees are likely to experience decreased
absenteeism and increased commitment and productivity.
· Tourism - Although there may be seasonal shifts in the tourism industry due to a warming
climate, the industry as a whole is likely continue to do well if it adjusts to changing climate
conditions. The industry might, for example, consider expanding spring, winter and fall activities
to accommodate for likely increases in tourism during the milder seasons as climate change
unfolds.
Preparation Strategies for Public Health and Emergency Services
Panelists recommended a number of strategies to prepare human systems for the impacts of
climate change. Resistance strategies would reduce the exposure of human populations to
disasters (e.g., reducing the number of interface area homes andlor increasing the establishment
of defensible space around interface homes). Resilience strategies would build the capacity of
emergency services to respond to increased needs (e.g., expanding wildland fire fighting capacity).
· Concentrate human populations in less risky portions of the landscape - As risk of
flood and wildfire increases, the demand for emergency services will grow and likely stretch
beyond capacity unless significant shifts are made in human habitation patterns. Land use
planning and zoning should focus on reducing community susceptibility to climate risks by
preventing new development in high-risk floodplains, steep forested canyons, and portions
of the urban-wildland interface. Reconstruction of buildings that are damaged after floods or
fires should be discouraged, for example by making government disaster relief, flood and fire
insurance contingent on relocation to less susceptible areas. To ensure social equity, these
policies should be coupled with special funding and tools to assist low income and vulnerable
populations make the changes. Policies that fully incorporate the likely consequences of
climate change into energy pricing could also be used as an incentive to reduce'urban sprawl.
· Redirect emergency services resources and responsibilities - The costs of fire and flood
protection and relief will continue to rise and unless new funding sources are identified they will
rapidly exceed the monetary resources available for these purposes.
26 Preparing for Climate Change
Therefore, a pragmatic assessment dictates that governments should consider shifting
responsibility for emergency services in areas at high-risk of wildland fire or flooding to the private
land and homeowners who choose to locate in such areas. This approach would need to be
complemented by special funding and assistance to assist low income and vulnerable populations
take on these responsibilities. Although local fire agencies currently provide rural fire protection,
it is conceivable they will not be able to maintain the financial and personnel resources to support
these services in the face of climate change impacts. Such a change in policy will need to be
reflected in updated emergency management plans, and must be accompanied by significant
outreach efforts to educate existing and new residents, especially rural residents, about their
responsibilities and the limits of governmental obligations. Existing outreach programs directed
at educating the public on the details of how to establish a defensible space to reduce the risk
of loss during wildland fire provide a good illustration of the kinds of education tools available.
However, these outreach efforts need to be broadened and expanded.
· Orient forest and floodplain management policies on reducing susceptibility - Existing
patterns of human habitation in the urban-wildland interface and in floodplains are well
established, and will take time to change - even with aggressive policies aimed at consolidating
human populations onto less risky portions of the
landscape. Forest and floodplain management must
therefore be focused on reducing susceptibility to wildland
fire and flood on those at-risk portions of the landscape
that are currently inhabited. For example, policies
that support the incorporation of bioswales and use of
other approaches to minimize surface water runoff from
new urban developments and the retrofitting of such
mechanisms into existing developments would reduce the
susceptibility to flooding. Targeting fuels reduction efforts
to lands along the urbanlwildland interface currently dotted Photo from City of Grants Pass
with significant numbers of rural homes would have a similar moderating impact on demand for
emergency services during wildland fires.
· link climate preparation and economic development - It will be important to make a direct
link between the vulnerability of communities and economic opportunities related to climate
preparation. Emphasis should be placed on creating jobs that reduce the vulnerability of local
residents. Opportunities to forge a link between greenhouse gas reduction projects and climate
preparation also exist. For example, strategic fuels reductions program in the urbanlwildland
interface can provide fuel for small-scale biomass energy production. Federal tax money would
be helpful to start-up small-scale renewable energy facilities, especially if program policies
provided guidelines that facilitated stewardship forestry practices that assisted with preparation
efforts.
· Intensify and adapt vector control for diseases - Risks from vector-borne diseases stemming
from mosquitoes and ticks are likely to increase as temperatures rise and bigger storms and
flooding occurs. Although the vector control programs in most of the counties in the Rogue River
Basin appear adequate to address these concerns, attention will need to be paid to ensure these
programs retain the flexibility needed to address a climate change future.
The Rogue River Basin Report 27
· Strengthen and expand water quality protections - As climate change extends the period
of low "summer" base flows, it will become increasingly important to prevent the contamination
of shallow wells and to protect surface water quality. Contamination from mining and non point
sources (including urban and agricultural runoff) will have greater detrimental impacts as storm
event and hydrologic runoff patterns change and less water is available in-stream to dilute
pollution.
· Develop strategies to anticipate new, climate change induced health service needs and
provide them to vulnerable populations - As summer temperatures rise, the incidence of heat
related illness is likely to increase. The need for cooling centers for extremely hot days should be
planned for, and the logistical challenges of making centers available to those in need anticipated
(e.g., developing a system for transporting the elderly to the centers). In addition, asthma and
other pollution related diseases are likely to rise and plans should be made to respond to these
needs.
THE NEED FOR NEW AND EXPANDED SYSTEMS OF GOVERNANCE
A consistent theme that emerged from the panels was the need for new information, resource
allocation and decision making mechanisms that are better suited for .future climate conditions. These
are the core factors of governance. How they are handled determines how power and authority
are distributed, i.e. they determine what
issues or interests receive priority. Boards,
commissions and legislative bodies are
merely the 'containers' in which governance
occurs. It is the type and ways in which
information is gathered and distributed,
resources are allocated, and decisions
are made that actually determine how
governance systems function. This section
outlines the recommendations made by the
panels for new and expanded systems of
governance.
GOVERNMENT SYSTEMS
A Three Part Interactive Process That Determines
How Power andAuthority are Distributed
Decision Making and Accountability
Infoonation GeneranOll
and Sbanng
/\
111 ~
Distribution and Rfsources
and W~~1h
FIG 9. FROM DOPPELT 2003
· Incorporate climate preparation into
all public and private plans and policies - A primary reason for new forms of governance
in the Rogue River Basin is the need for ongoing and future planning and decision making to
take climate change into account. Decisions made by the people of the Rogue Basin today will
have profound implications for future economic, social and ecological well-being. Incorporating
climate change into decision making now will require that new types of information be gathered
(e.g., effects of climate on organisms or transportation infrastructure), that resources be
allocated to different types of programs and policies (e.g., to those that build resistance and
resilience in each sector), and that an expanded group of stakeholders (e.g., landowners
downstream of proposed dams or revetments- structures placed on banks or cliffs in such a
way as to absorb the energy of incoming water) and interests (e.g., future generations) be
included or considered in policy development.
28 Preparing for Climate Change
The panelists recommended that decision makers throughout the Rogue Basin formally
and explicitly incorporate projected climate impacts into ongoing and future assessments,
plans and policies. As part of this effort, governments should consider an inventory of
their current policy and funding priorities to determine if they incorporate, enhance, or
undermine climate change preparation efforts. Policies and budgets should be reprioritized
as needed.
For example, the panelists recommended that Oregon's land-use planning "Big Look"
process formally take into account climate change predictions. Disaster relief funds should
be reoriented to relocate people from fire and flood disaster prone areas. Every public
agency should complete energy audits and greenhouse gas inventories and implement
appropriate energy conservation and efficiency measures. Mass transit and runoff
retention should be incorporated into new developments and public transportation and
reduction in the size of the human footprint on the land should be prioritized. Many other
types of reprioritization will be needed.
· Manage for 'Future Range of Variability' - When incorporating climate change into
ongoing and future programs and policies, decision-makers will need to shift their
management perspective to focus on "future range of climate variability" rather than
continuing the long-held approach of formulating management plans based on patterns
observed in the past ("historic range of variability"). Climate model projections in the
Rogue Basin indicate that the ecological, social and economic conditions of the past are no
longer reasonable indicators of future conditions. This reality requires that decision-makers
with responsibility for natural, economic, built and human systems adopt a future oriented
perspective. As stated previously, planning for likely future conditions will require different
types of information, changes in monitoring protocols, new funding and personnel allocation,
and new decision making mechanisms.
Managing for the 'Future Range of Variability' will require flexibility in setting goals and
priorities because conditions are likely to continuously change. A true 'systems' approach to
goal and priority setting will be needed that is based on careful assessments of how shifts
in one aspect of the natural or human environment is likely to affect other aspects. This
approach to management is likely to enhance the capacity of every system to withstand and
adapt to changing climate conditions.
· Use Scenario Planning - One of the most helpful tools when planning for the future range
of variability is "scenario planning." Although the downscaling of climate models provides a
reasonable projection of the range of conditions likely in a future climate, it is not possible to
know exactly how climate change will play out in the Rogue Basin. To resolve this inherent
uncertainty regarding the details, decision makers will benefit by developing a suite of
possible future scenarios, analyzing potential vulnerabilities, identifying the gaps that exist in
the capacity of existing programs and policies to respond to those vulnerabilities, and then
developing strategies and policies to increase resistance and resilience of local systems
under most or all of those future conditions. Figure 10 (next page) outlines the steps in a
scenario planning process.
The Rogue River Basin Report 29
The Rogue Basin project described in this
report used a scenario building process. As
previously stated, three different IPCC climate
models and a global vegetation model were
used to describe scenarios of how climate
change would likely affect the Rogue Basin.
The panels then assessed the effects of
each of the scenarios and identified actions
and policies that would help prepare natural,
economic, human and built systems for climate
change. Scenario building is a common
practice used within the business community.
Information about the process can be obtained
from the web and in many books.
Steps in a Vumerabllity I Opportunity Assessment
1) Develop/utilize climate impact scenarios
2}Assess risks to existing systems
3) Assess existing systems against climate scenarios
4} Estimate the gaps between existing capacity
what will be needed under different climate sce-;
narios
5) Identify and assess strategies for closing gaps
6) Choo~ strategy and implement
FIG. 10. FROM CURBING AND PREPARING FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE: HANDBOOK FOR RURAL GOVERNMENTS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE, 2007.
· Expand goal setting and decision making
to the landscape level - When planning for the future range of variability, goal setting and
decision making will be enhanced by shifting to the landscape level with a future climate focus.
Changing climate conditions mean that individual projects that on first glance appear to have
little consequence beyond the specific location in which they take place may in fact have
significant affects on ecological, human, economic and built systems elsewhere in the Rogue
Basin.
This new reality means that management goals, policies and projects should no longer be
planned or implemented in isolation of their effects on the entire landscape. A core element
of decision making should be to ask how every plan or project would affect other aspects of
natural, built, economic and human systems in the Rogue. Landscape level climate-oriented
ecological management means that federal land management plans should be updated to
account for likely climate futures. Many watershed plans have been prepared and landscape
level analyses currently are being conducted. These should also be updated to include likely
future climate conditions.
Forest thinning projects, for example, aimed at restoring resistance and resilience to fire in the
terrestrial component of the ecosystem should be integrated with efforts to restore resistance
and resilience to fire in therestoration efforts aimed at the aquatic environment. Thinning plans
should be made with a thorough understanding of how climate change is expected to impact
the forest, soils, water quality and quantity, fisheries, and other factors. Similar considerations
should be incorporated for planning and policy making in the human, built, and economic
sectors. Most important, the implications across and between all four sectors must be explicitly
and comprehensively built into planning and policymaking.
The scientific panel also ackno~ledged that the traditional segregation between the
management of public and private lands, and between forested, agricultural and urban areas,
will need to shift to a more integrated approach if natural systems and functions vital to society
such as the provision of clean water are to withstand and adapt to climate impacts. A more
integrated approach will help identify potential barriers to the implementation of preparation
activities. Landscape-level planning and management are also likely to foster the identification
of opportunities for leveraging efforts through involvement with multiple partnerships.
30 Preparing for Climate Change
· Continually seek co-beneficial actions - The analysis found th~t if landscape level planning
and decision making occurs many actions aimed at increasing the resistance and resilience of
one system in the Rogue Basin can offer co-benefits for other systems. By using this approach a
self-reinforcing system will be established that continually enhances natural, built, economic and
human systems. Appendix D offers examples of how climate preparation activities in one sector
can provide benefits in other sectors.
· Expand participation on planning and decision making teams - One of the most important
considerations when expanding planning to the landscape level is who or what interests should
be involved with decision making. Because climate change expands the realm of the issues
and people that may be affected by projects and policies, planning teams will often benefit by
expanding participation.
For example, aquatic scientists should be included in planning and decision making regarding
forest thinning projects because although they may occur in the uplands, forest thinning in
a climate-affected forest may have significant implications for aquatic species and systems.
Similarly, infrastructure projects implemented upstream in the Rogue Basin may have significant
implications for natural systems, public safety or public health downstream. Unintended negative
consequences can often be avoided by expanding the range of expertise of people who are
involved in planning and decision making.
In addition, all counties in Oregon have natural hazard plans for preventing loss of life, and
reducing injuries and property damage during extreme weather events. The hazard mitigation
plans for each county provide data on threats as well as preparation planning, strategies,
and techniques. The plans are developed collaboratively, in conjunction with various partners
throughout the county. For instance, the Jackson County wildfire protection plan was developed
with input from BLM, fire departments, transportation and development departments, soil
and water conservation districts, national forest departments, and planning departments.
When developing climate preparation plans and policies, there should be collaboration with
the Partners for Disaster Resistance and Resilience: Oregon Showcase State Initiative, a
coordinating body that leverages human and financial resources for risk reduction throughout
Oregon. Many other types of collaboration are possible.
A more coordinated and integrated participatory approach to planning and decision making
may require new or expanded institutions of governance. Watershed councils, for example,
which include multiple stakeholders, are an example of new governance mechanisms that could
be built upon and vested with authority to coordinate and integrate ecological climate futures
planning at the landscape level. Other new governance institutions are possible as well.
· Improve and reorient information gathering and monitoring systems -In order to generate
the information needed to successfully withstand and adapt to climate change, monitoring
systems must be reoriented and strengthened to measure and generate useful information in a
timely manner on the speed and trajectory of climate change impacts and the effectiveness of
resistance and resilience strategies. The responses of people, infrastructure, economies, and
natural systems to climate change will be inherently chaotic and uncertain. Many changes will
occur more rapidly than anticipated and surprise events are likely. Improved monitoring of the
types, extent, and effects of those changes will be vital to the development and implementation
of agile, responsive preparation plans and policies.
The Rogue River Basin Report 31
The natural systems panelists, for example, said it is important to develop a greater
understanding of the relationship between climate projections and fire impacts by developing a
finer resolution analysis of fire responses in forests. The panel also identified a need for a finer
resolution analysis of the intensity and frequency of high stream flow events and the impact
of such events on ecosystem integrity, stream function, and survival of the various life history
stages of our native fishes. In addition, the panelists recognized a need to develop a clearer
understanding and awareness of the response of mobile, invasive, native and non-native
species to climate change. These species are pioneers that will herald the onset of landscape
scale shifts in biological communities. Climate induced changes in fire and flood behavior and
invasive species responses clearly also are of critical importance to preparation planning for
human communities.
The economic, built, and human systems panelists stated that improved monitoring and data
gathering about storm intensity and precipitation, ,seasonal water availability, energy supply
(locally and across the western electrical grid), public health risks and other issues will be
important to building increasingly effective resistance and resilience strategies.
· Increase public understanding - One of the most important steps decision makers in
the Rogue River Basin can take to develop the new governance mechanisms required to
successfully withstand and adapt to climate change is to educate citizens. To accomplish this
sound knowledge and understanding among the public about climate impacts and preparation
will be essential. Extensive, long-term climate education and outreach programs should be
instituted within all levels of government, the private sector, educational institutions, and
community groups in the Rogue River Basin. Residents must come to understand the likely
risks of climate change and what can be done to minimize and prepare for them.
CONCLUSIONS
Global temperatures are rising in large part due to human activities. No matter how fast human-
produced greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced during the coming years, climate change
is likely to transform the natural systems of the Rogue River Basin, as it will in all other regions,
nations, and across the planet. These shifts will stimulate considerable change in how the local
economy functions, the capacity of the built environment to support local communities, in human
health, and in the overall quality of life of the people who live in and cherish the Rogue River Basin.
Numerous planning and policy initiatives exist i~ the Rogue Basin that can help increase climate
resistance and resiliency. The people and institutions of the region have the capacity to make the
adjustments needed to effectively prepare for climate change. Proactive steps to upgrade and
expand preparation efforts for natural, economic, built and human systems for the likely future
consequences of climate change can help the people and communities of the Rogue Basin adapt
and thrive in the future.
This report should serve as a beginning, not an ending point, for the development of climate
preparation programs and policies in the Rogue River Basin. It is our hope that organizations such
as The Rogue Valley Council of Governments, municipal and county governments, federal and
state agencies, as well as private firms and households will use this report as a platform for more
extensive investigation into effective means to prepare the Rogue Basin for climate change.
32 Preparing for Climate Change
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Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
University of Oregon Climate Leadership Initiative. 2007. From Curbing and Preparing for Climate
Change: Handbook for Rural Governments in the Pacific Northwest (http://climlead.uoregon.edu)
U.S. Climate Change Science Program. 2008. Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive
Ecosystems and Resources. Available at: http://www.c1imatescience.gov/
34 Preparing for Climate Change
APPENDIX A. List of Participants in the Rogue River Basin Climate Future Forum
Natural Systems Workshops.
Name
John Alexander
Pat Boleyn
Rick Brown
Paula Burgess
Ben Carrier
Dominick DellaSala
Bob Doppelt
Ray Drapek
Chris Frissell
Tonya Graham
Sam Gregory
Roger Hamilton
Paul Hosten
Aida Jolosheva
Marni Koopman
Aaron Maxwell
Ron Neilson
Dennis Odion
Michael Parker
Dave Perry
Pepper Trail
Dan Van Dyke
Rob Walton
Cindy Deacon Williams
Jack Williams
Affiliation
Klamath Bird Observatory
Lane Community College
Defenders of Wildlife
Wild Salmon Center
National Center for Conservation Science and Policy
National Center for Conservation Science and Policy
Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon
US Forest Service/Pacific Northwest Research Station
Pacific Rivers Council
National Center for Conservation Science and Policy
Oregon State University
Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon
US Bureau of Land Management
Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon
RMRS/NCCSP
Southern Oregon University
US Forest Service/ Pacific Northwest Rearch Station
Odion Consulting
Southern Oregon University
Oregon State University
US Fish and Wildlife Service
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
NOAA Fisheries
National Center for Conservation Science and Policy
Trout Unlimited
The Rogue River Basin Report 35
APPENDIX B. List of Participants in the Rogue River Basin Climate Futures Forum
Human, Build and Economic Systems Workshops
Name
Craig Anderson
Lynn Barnhardt
Bruce Bartow
Neil Benson
Andres Briggs
Ben Carriers
Chris Chamgers
Mike Curry
Bob Doppelt
Dave Gilmour
Don Greene
Kay Harrison
Bob Jones
Josh LeBombard
Katie Mackendrick
Jim McGinnis
Charlie Phenix
John Renz
Morris Saltekoff
Ben Truwe
Philip Van Buskirk
John Vial
Jude Wait
John Ward
Jenny Zeltvay
Affiliation
Jackson County Planning Department
Jackson Cou nty
Jackson County Emergency Board
Jackson County Fire Plan
Oregon State Parks
National Center Conservation Science and Policy
Ashland Fire and Rescue
Jackson County Emergency Management
Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon
Jackson County Commissioner
Jackson County Planning Commission
City of Central Point
Medford Water Commission
Jackson County Development Services
Climate Leadership Initiative, University of Oregon
Ashland Conservation Commissioner
Retired USFS Fire Manager
Oregon DLCD
Sams Valley Bee Keeper
City of Medford
OSU Agriculture Extension Administrator
Jackson County Road Department
City of Ashland
Bear Creek Watershed Council
Josephine County Public Health
The Rogue River Basin Report 37
APPENDIX C. Graphs and Figures
NOTE: Due to document size limitations, the graphs and figures are available in a
separate document.
The Rogue River Basin Report 39
APPENDIX D. Climate Change Impacts: Conflicts and Synergies. Note: A plus (+)
sign after a listed interaction indicates a positive or complementary impact and a minus (_)
sign indicates a negative or competing impact.
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