HomeMy WebLinkAbout2651 Amends Comp Plan-Chap VII ORDINANCE NO. 2651
AN ORDINANCE OF THE CITY OF ASHLAND AMENDING THE ASHLAND
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - CHAPTER VII - "ECONOMY"
THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF ASHLAND DO ORDAIN AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1. Chapter VII of the Ashland Comprehensive Plan, shall be replaced in its
entirety by the revised chapter "The Economy" and attached as "Exhibit A."
The foregoing ordinance was first read on the /.5-r/iday of
and duly PASSED AND ADOPTED this :3--r&day of
1991.
Nan E. Franklin
City Recorder
SIGNED AND APPROVED this ff -2~day of ~/~ -~-~:~ ,~, ~,.-t/<:~,
,1991.
Catherine M. Golden
Mayor
CHAPTER VII
THE ECONOMY
~NTRODU~ON
The purpose of this chapter is to assure that the comprehensive
plan and updated land-use code provide adequate opportuni-
ties for a variety of economic activities in the City, while
continuing to reaffirm the goal of Ashland's citizens. This goal,
articulated in the 1982 Ashland Comprehensive Plan, is that
economic development should serve the purpose of maintain-
ing or improving the local quality of life rather than become, of
itself, the purpose of land-use plannlng~. The challenge for the
years ahead is to furnish the City with adequate resources of
land, educated and sldlled people, and finance for development
of an appropriately large and diverse economic base. This base
will provide the necessary tax and income sources to maintain
the city's civic, social and environmental character and stability.
At the same time, the community's quality of life must be
maintained. Ashland's quality of life, those factors which
provide for a safe, non-polluted, comfortable and affordable
environment, and its people are its greatest economic assets.
This chapter will examine Ashland's economy, and using local,
state, and national trends, project the most likely areas of eco-
nomic growth. Using these projections, it will determine the
quantity and quality of land necessary to sustain this economy.
The existing vacant land resource will be examined, and suffi-
cient land will be identified to meet the land needs of the City.
Finally, policies that will guide the City's economic plans will be
developed.
The Future-Plan Festival hosted by the Ashland Citizens' Plan-
ning Advisory Commission and held on Saturday, June 10th,
1989, identified several issues of top concern to Ashland resi-
dents. Those issues of greatest concern were as follows: water
supply and quality, air quality, housing affordability, open
space, traffic flow and congestion, jobs and the economy, pre-
serving the small town feeling of Ashland, and a number of
other concerns2
A poll of citizens selected at random from the list of registered
voters revealed similar concerns, although in different order of
importance2 Significantly, results of the random survey placed
concern with growth management and jobs and .the economy,
ahead of water quality. This result is important, as it is more
likely to reflect the concerns of the population at large. As
almost all of these concerns are directly affected by the quality
and quantity of economic growth in Ashland, they are all
addressed either directly or in passing in this chapter of the
comprehensive plan.
GENERAL DESCRII'TION
Development of Ashland ~ Economy Since 1980
Table VII-1 reports the number of firms and total employment
in major business sectors as a percentage of 1980 for Oregon
and Jackson County. The table demonstrates that Oregon's
economy has recovered from the recession it was entering when
the last Ashland Comprehensive Plan was written, and that
Jackson County's economy has grown more rapidly than the
Oregon economy as awhole. In all sectors the recovery was ac-
companied by a more rapid increase in the number of firms than
in employment. This means that firms
in both Oregon and Jackson county
are smaller, more efficient in their
use of labor, and more specialized
than they were before the recession of
the early 1980's..The bulk of this
growth has been in telall trade, trans-
portation and utilities, and services.
The extraordinary growth of trans-
portation and utilities and of retail
trade explain most of the excess in
Jackson County's growth relative to
the State.
The growth of services in Jackson
County has been essentially identical
to the State pattern. Some of Jackson
county's relative strength has also come
from non-timber manufacturing and
real-estate and financial services. The
number of firms and employees in the
timber industry has stagnated since
1980.
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacture
of which
WoodProducts
Trans &
Utilities
Wholesale
Retail
F.I.R.E.
Services
of which
Hotels
Total
Table VII-1
Indices of Change, Oregon and Jackson County
Major Business Divisions, Oregon and Jackson County
(1980 = 100)
Oregon Jackson County
# Firms # Employees # Firms #Employees
1982 1986 1982 1986 1982 1986 1982 1986
99 144 82 113 106 42 64
75 91 66 67 73 97 49 65
99 116 '84 88 92 119 77 106
92 109 '72 86 84 94 68 100
102 127 94 97 120 172 106 138
102 110 93 100 95 104 83 88
104 116 94 101 105 127 94 106
95 101 94 95 94 112 101 103
111 140 102 123 112 139 105 123
103 113 84 94 110 108 112 78
97 123 90 100 97 133 89 108
~hland~ Economy and State and
National Trends
Reflecting a national trend, Ashland's
rising share of employment is tied to increased numbers of
small, innovative firms. While a significant proportion of this
employment has shifted to the retail and service sectors, the
economy has become more diverse over the last decade. While
on the one hand this implies successful adjustment to a changing
economy, it also implies that a larger share of the workforce is
taking greater personal risk in setting up businesses than was
the case in 1980. These risks include, for example, the loss of
health care and retirement benefits formerly provided by large
employera
Ashlarut~ Princt~al Economic Resoutr~
Ashland has built its. economy on a resource base of
timber, favorable climate, attractive landscape, cul-
tural attractions, a well-educated labor force, and
educa.t!on...in. ad.dit.ion,' As. Mand's .1.o .caii0n 9n Inter:
~tAte' 5.and'.the Soutla~rn. Padifie Railr. o'/td; 'and: .its
proximity to the Medford Airport give it market
access that is more favorable than usual for a rural
town.
The timber resource is expected to decrease in im-
portance in the future, thus Ashland's remaining
resources for growth are its people and quality of
life. These factors have been identified by economic
geographers as essential to attracting the small,
relatively non-polluting, "footloose"industries that
are expected to provide the motor of growth for the
future. (Footloose industries are businesses that,
because the raw material required is small, and the product is of
high value and light weight, are not constrained by either
resources or markets to a location, but are free to locate in many
areas.) Quality of life is a major factor in attracting Ashland's
tourists who provide the "export" market for its services and
retail businesses.
Table VII-2
Ashland Employment by Business Size
Number of Number of Employment % of Total Cumlative %
Employees Firms Total ' Employment TotalsEmploy '~
"- '2-5' ~' -.
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-30
31-50
51-100
101-150
151-400
>400
.432..' ..... 1;i 53" .... 17.1'
107 831 13.7
48 600 9.9
14 251 4.1
19 466 7.7
18 718 11.9
2 160 2.6
4 514 8.3
1 284 4.5
I 539 8.9
39.5
49.4
53.2
61.2
73.1
75.7
84.0
88.5
· 97.4
omy and that the local economy will inevitably respond to
external trends. Consequently, an accurate description of the
kind of businesses that provide employment in Ashland is one
of two essential footings for understanding the City's economy;
the second is knowledge of the internal and external trends
affecting the city.
ECONOMIC MAKEUP
Introduction
The attempt to predict the future growth needs of Ashland's
economy is seated in two assumptions: that the future economy
will, for the most part, grow organically from the present econ-
Employment in Ashland's businesses is described by size and
kind in Tables VII-2 and VII-3. This tables were compiled from
data gathered in July 1989, in a special inventory of Ashland
businesses, based on records from the State Employment Divi-
sion, Ashland Business Licenses, and the local Polk's and U.S.
West directories.
Total employment in the Cityin 1989 was 6,049, a 7.7% increase
VII-3
VII-4
Table VII-3
Number of Firms and
Employment by
Industrial Divisions
Ashland, 1989
Number of. · '. .... "
"'' Firms. .. '
Agriculture, Forestry, 38 3.2
Fishing
Contract Const. 122 10.3
Manufacturing 56 4.7
of which
Wood Products 17 1.4
Trans, Comm, 26 2.2
Utilities
Wholesale 39 3.3
Retail 301 25.5
Finances, Insurance, & 100 8.5
Real Estate
Services 467 40.0
Public Admin. 2 0.2
Non Classified 15 1.3
TOTAL 1179 100.0
: Number of
'Employees
# %
124 2.0
289 4.8
508 8.4
245 4.0
85 1,4
127 2.0
2081 34.0
228 4.0
2424 40.0
159 2.6
23 0.4
6049 100.0
from 1980, when the employment total reported in
the 1982 Economic Element was 5619. During the
same period, population increased in Ashland by
12%. The goal of the 1982 plan was for the increase
in jobs to be ~lighfiy higher than the population
increase. The employment goal of the 1982 plan was
missed by about 300 jobs.
The Major Economic Sectors
Retail Trade
Ashland's retail trade consists of local sales to the
resident population, retail sales made to the regional
shopper, and retail sales to the tourist population.
The percentage of retail sales to tourists is difficult to
determine, and varied by business type, time of year,
and location in the city. However, it can be estimated
by sector, as was done in Table VII-4, below. The
1987 Census of Retail Trade and estimates of tourist
trade in the various segments indicate that about
19% of all retail trade is tourist based.
Ashland lacks sales of relatively expensive items,
such as furniture, and major appliances. These tend
to be located in Medford, as its locationprovides an
advantage to this market segment. The exception is
in auto sales. Ashland's auto sales area north of the
City limits is in the Urban Growth Boundary, and is
part of Ashland's commercial enterprises. It forms a
strong regional retailing center in its own right, with
total gross sales of $50 million in 1989 (It was about
$35 million in 1987 when the last economic Census
was taken.).4
Table VII-4
Composition of Retail Trade
Percentage that is Tourism Based
Category Amount% Tourist $ Tourist
Building Materials 4,255 .0% 0
Food Stores 2 5,876 10% 2.,688
Gasoline Stations 8,071 20% 1,614
Apparel 4,209 50% 2,105
Furniture 2,916 0% 0
Eating & Drinking 12,638 50% 6,342
Drug Stores 2,609 10% 261
All Others 13,663 10% 1,366
Total Percentage based on Tourism: 19%
Retail 8ak~ fn:~n U.S. Bureau of Cenaus
Ig87 Cen~u~ of R.-'t~l Trade
Percentage of ~aJe~ to toudsts b4~ed on Planning
While auto sales was not reported as Ashland sales in the 1987
Census data because these areas are outside the City limits,
some auto sale data may have been erroneously included as
there was one firm listed as auto sales. The amount is unknown
because of disclosure rules.
Using data from the 1987 Census of Retail Trade and compar-
ing Ashland to other Oregon cities of similar size, Ashland's
total retail gross seems low, even when accounting for the unre-
ported auto sales. According to the Census, Ashland has only
$75 million in retail sales, and a population 16,740 or about
$4,500 dollars per capita, and about $110 million when account-
ing for the auto sales that are a part of our local market area.
Grants Pass, on the other hand, has gross sales of $302 million,
Roseburg has $301 million, and Klamath Falls has $223 million.
All are of a similar size to Ashland, but have larger market
areas. Other cities that have retail sales that are similar in size
to Ashland's are Redmond ($81 million, population 7,000),
Hood River ($72 million, population 4,640), Cottage Grove
($67 million, population 6,945), Lebanon ($77 million, popula-
tion 10,485) and Forest Grove ($72 million, population 12,180).
Ashland's total sales are similar to cities with smaller popula-
tions. Compared to the 1977 Census, Ashland's percentage of
retail sales in Jackson County has fallen from 7.9% of total sales
to 7.2%, while Ashland's total sales in proportion to retail sales
in Medford, Grants Pass, Roseburg, Redmond, and Klamath
Falls has risen.
The City's inventory accounted for 2,081 retail employees, and
the Census reports only 1,278. While our survey also counted
businesses that are within the Urban Growth Boundary but
outside the City Limits, this does not account for the entire
difference. There are other problems with the Census Data as
well. For example, the Census reports that Ashland has a total
gross of $12 million dollars for Ashland's 61 restaurants, or less
than $200,000 annual gross average per restaurant. A City like
Woodburn, that has only 27 restaurants and no tourism, reports
a gross of $10 million, or almost $400,000 per restaurant aver-
age. This leads us to believe that there is significant under-
reporting of Ashland's retail economy in the Census figures.
However, this under-reporting probably takes place in small
businesses because the Census directly surveys only large
employers, and only samples small employers. AS 35% of
Ashland retail businesses employ less than 10 people, this may
account for some of the difference between Ashland and other
cities.
The conclusions that one could draw from this is that either the
VII-5
Census is erroneous, or that Ashland's retail trade is
unusually low for a city our size. Probably there is some
truth to both conclusions. Ashland appears to lack the type
of retail trade that is characterized by high volume and
discount pricln& While the Census appears suspect, Ashland
has experienced very little new construction-of retail
buildings in the 1980'.s, :.the last major construction occur-
ring in the late 1970's. One may conclude that there is
room for growth of Ashland's retail sector.
Service Sector
Ashland's services has grown considerably in the past
decade. Using Census figures, total sales in the service
sector increased from $4.7 million in 1977 ($8.3 million
when adjusted for inflation to 1987 dollars) to $30 million
annuallyin 1987. Even in this Census of Service Industries
there appears to be under reporting of data. The 1982
figure for lodging services was $5.2 million, and the 1987
figure was little more, only $5.5 million. During the same
period, Ashland lodging units increased from 669 to 943
units. Income from the 6% lodging tax charged by the City
increased from $200,000 annually to $300,000. As this five
year period saw an increase of 50% in tax receipts and
units in Ashland, it stands to reason that the lodging sector is
under reported in the Census figures because, again, small
businesses, like bed and breakfasts, axe not well-represented.
This leads us to believe that the entire services sector is under
reported. However, Ashland's provides a greater proportion of
County services than retail trade. While in 1987 Ashland
accounted for about 7.2% of County retail trade, it accounts for
11.6% of County service trade, according to the Bureau of the
Census.
Table VII-5
Ashland Manufacturing Firms
Manufacturing Type
Number of Employment
Firms
#06 #
10 13.7 28 5.0
2 2.7 7 1.3
7 9.6 59 10.7
17 23.3 285 51.8
3 4.1 3
21 28.8 103 18.7
6 8.2 19
3 4.1 27 4.9
4 5.5 19 3.5
Food & Related
Products
Fabric & Textile
Industrial or
Medical
Wood Products
Furniture
0.5
Publishing .
(Print, Video)
Plastics, Ceramics,
3.5
Steel
Jewlery Manufacture
Other
TOTAL
73 100 550 99,9
Manufacturing
The composition of Ashland's manufacturing sector is dis-
played in Table VII-5. Ashland has some 65-70 firms engaged
in manufacturing. About 70% of these firms engage in non-
timber manufacturing; most are small and quite young. One-
seventh produce food or related products, one-quarter pro-
duces wood products other than plywood or lumber and an-
other quarter is engaged in publishing in printed or electronic
media. The remainder are divided up among steel fabricators
(3 firms), industrial '.~.upply, textile, medical supply manufac-
tures and manufaetur.ers of toys and consumer novelties. In
addition, several firms which manufacture computer software
or peripheral equipment have moved to Ashland in recent
years. Together, these firms employ roughly 300 people, and
have provided the major growth in Ashland's manufacturing
sector, offsetting th~ loss of jobs in the wood products sector
since 1980.
In 1980, Ashland's manufacturing sector employed 500 persons,
80% in wood produ~tg manufacturing~. In 1989, the manufac-
turing sector employed.. 550 persons, or 10% more, but the wood
products sector haddropped to 285, or only 55%. While the
wood products employment in the City has shrunk by 115 jobs,
non-wood products manufacturing has expanded by 165 jobs.
Of special note is th'at most of the City's manufacturing growth
occurred on land tfi~tt was set aside in 1980, and zoned "Employ-
ment". The two areas .where this growth has provided the most
employment, developed with City stimulation. It is probable
that with an indiffer'ent or passive City role, there would have
been much less growfh in this area.
Ashland ~ Employment
Employment by Business Size
Table VII-2 illustrates Ashland's employment by business size.
Exclusive of the education sector and employees of the City gov-
ernment, 28% of Ashland's employment is in firms of fewer
than six employeei,' 16% in firms of six to ten employees, 22%
in firms of 11 to 25, 17% in firms of 26 to 50, and 13% in firms
of over 50 employees; .fully two-thirds of employment is in firms
I1.21~
Ashlan~ Em;ioymont 1989
by Slze of Firm
8.58~
13.0g~
19.152
13.82~
EI2to 5
Et6to 10
El 11 to 20
[] 21 to 50
[] 51 to 150
· 151 + more
14,15~
of 25 or fewer employees6. Southern Oregon State College
(SOSC) employs some 539 people, Oregon Shakespeare Festi-
val (OSF) employs over 400, public schools employ some 200,
the Community Hospital employs 148, and the City govern-
ment, 1597. The ten largest employers that are privately owned
ar~ fairly representative of Ashland's business variety: two in
woo.d products other than furniture, a motel, two car dealer-
ships, two grocery stores, a newspaper, a restaurant and a
commercial bakery. Three of the ten largest private sector
employers are locally owned. Except for the wood-products
firms and the motel, these businesses cater primarily to local
Clients.
Employment by Business Type
Table VII-3 which is compiled from City inventory data, de-
VII-7
Ashland Employment 1969
by Economic Sector
40.07X
3.77X
~.53X
3.21~C
2.C)5~C
4.78X
34.40X
9.09X
· Agrlcultur~
· Constmctlon
· Manufacture
[] Retall
[] F.I.R.E.
[] Services
[] Public
Admin.
[] All Othor~
scribes the proportion of Ashland's employment in each busi-
ness sector. Ashland had a total employment of 6,049 in 1989,
compared to 51,670 for Jackson County (Total wage and salary,
March 1989). Ashland accounts for about 11.7% of County em-
ployment, slightly above our percentage of County population
(11.5%). According to this inventory, three-quarters of Ash-
land's employment come from the services and retailing sector,
with services at 40%, and retail trade at 34%. This proportion
is high compared to both the State and the County pattern,
where in 1986 (the most recent year for which the statistics are
· available) these sectors represented 26.7% (services) and 23.2%
.' (ret'..a~l.)'ifor' th~ 'St .ate,. and 25% (servia. eS) and'29~ (re.tail) for
.the County. .' ........
Normally, such high percentages of employment in these sec-
tors would be a source of concern because these businesses sell
relatively small proportions of their products outside the re-
gion. Consequently they stimulate few imports and thus limit
the variety of goods in the region. However, the situation in
VII-8
Ashland is not average, as the College accounts for 12% of total
employment in the City, or about one third of the service sector
employment. The non-college service sector employment,
28%, is dose to both State and County norms. The college em-
ployment can be considered export employment, since most of
the money for the college comes from outside the region, and is
similar in its economic effect to a manufacturing facility that
markets its product outside the region.
Seasonality of Employment in Ashland
Ashland's employment figures were checked for annual vari-
ation using State of Oregon Employment Division figures.
Ashland's overall employment varies throughout the year, with
peak employment occurring in September and the lowest levels
of employment in January. The lowest month was 11% less than
that of the peak month. Jackson County shows a greater
seasonal variation, with the lowest month being 21% less than
the peak month. Therefore, while some tourist related jobs are
seasonal, the City's total employment picture is fairly stable
year round, and is more stable than Jackson County as a whole.
Residency of Ashland Employees
In 1980, 64% of persons in the workforce who lived in Ashland
worked in Ashland. Most of the rest worked in Jackson county.
This s..eems to' h.ave changed little 15y 19902...' .While the. 1990
C~nsuS will glare. the definitive ansWer'as to Whither AsMand
employment has moved out of the City, two recent surveys of
homeowners by Southern Oregon Regional Services Institute
(SORSI) indicate that the percentage of persons who both live
and work in Ashland has not changed dramatically. The first
survey, of persons who purchased homes in Ashland in 1987 and
1988, showed that 64% worked in Ashland. The second survey,
a random sample of all homeowners in Ashland, again showed
that 64% worked in Ashland. While the fact that the percent-
ages are exactly the same in all three data sources is coinci-
dental, the data suggest that new residents, Ashland Home-
owners, and the population at large are similar in the location
of their employment.
Mode of Travel to Work by Ashland Employees
One fact that is unusual about Ashland is the method of travel
to work by Ashland workers. Table VII-5 shows Ashland
workers compared to Medford workers. It shows that fewer
Ashland workers drive to work alone, and many more car-
pool, walk, bike, or work at home. This is significant, as this
factor contributes to a host of related subjects, such as traffic
density, air pollution, and the importance of pedestrian and
bikeways to the local population.
The pattern of metropolitan areas developing suburbs which
provide housing, but little employment, and central cities which
provide jobs but house only the poorest residents, and the
pattern of choosing to travel to work in a single-occupancy
vehicle is the cause of many urban problems and national
problems, ranging from pollution, dependance on foreign oil,
and the balance of trade deficit. Ashland has largely avoided
this pattern, and the trend of employees choosing to travel to
work by means other than private, unshared cars should be en-
couraged. In fact, fithe 36% who commute is removed from the
data, 30% of the people who live and work in the City either
walk or bike to work.
We believe this is the result of three major factors. First,
Ashland is compact in form, with residences and places of
employment closely juxtaposed in much of the City. Second, it
Table VII-6
Mode of Travel to Work
Ashland & Medford, 1980
Travel Mode Ashland Medford
~ % # %
Drive Alone 364057.26% 1190075.55%
Carpool 114818.06% 210013.33%
Public Transit 88 1.38% 78 0.50%
Walk 92614.57% 850 5.40%
Other (Bike) 3215.05% 557 3.54%
Work at Home 2343.68% 267 1,70%
Total 6357 15752.
is hard to find parking downtom and at the College, two of
Ashland's major sources of employment. For many, it is simply
quicker and less expensive to walk or bike to work. Third, many
Ashland citizens are environmentally consdous and axe willing
to change to a less energy cons-ming and polluting lifestyle
when it is made reasonably convenient. Therefore, the City
should pursue polides that make these alternatives convenient.
LAND USE AND THE ECONOMY
Location of ~4_shland~ Economic Sectors
Ashland enjoys a diversity of locations for economic activity.
The Downtown area, the first and most important area of
economic activity for the City, is the heart of the City. It
provides avariety of retail goods and services, and also serves as
VII-9
the center of tourist activity in the City. The Ashland Downtown
Plan, adopted by the City in 1988, provides a guiding document
for development of this area.
Adjacent to this area is the Railroad District, another historic
commercial center that has declined with the railroad's impor-.
tance. The commercial area along A Street has had a
gence of activity in recent years, as tiffs area' offers the satfie
convenient location as downtown, but substantially lower land
costs and rents. It is a mixed use area, providing a variety of
retail, service, industrial, warehouse, and residential uses,
sometimes in the same building!
North of the railroad district is the Hersey Street industrial
area, which extends from Laurel Street to Ann Street. This area
features mostly manufacturing and service related industries.
Hersey Street here forms a border between a residential area
and a manufacturing and commercial area, so uses at the edges
sometimes cause conflicts, such as complaints of noise and dust.
New uses should be encouraged to be relatively quiet, and this
border is a favorable location for mixed uses to ease the
transition between the commercial and residential uses.
North Main, from the downtown to the north City limits, is an
area of mixed development. Some commercial development
has occurred and additional commercially zoned land exists.
Restrictive zoning has prevented contiguous strip commercial
development from occurring along Main Street, but older
buildings have been renovated and new structures built under
conditional use permits, Further north, the Valley View com-
mercial area provides important retail activity. It is outside the
Citylimits, but inside the Urban Growth Boundary. The strong-
est activity in this area is automobile sales. This area is well
located for its market, convenient to the freeway, away from the
downtown, and allows a land intensive use in an area which does
not disrupt the rest of the City. Because of its location on
County land, site review standards similar to Ashland's are
enforced by the County, and the appearance of developments .in
this area has improved in the past 10 years. This area has one
of the largest retail grosses in Ashland, reportedly adcounting
for $50 million in sales in 1989. 8
Siskiyou Boulevard has scattered commercial and institutional
development from the City limits to the downtown. Like North
Main, the mix of residential use with limited commercial devel-
opment enhance the community's appearance. A major center
of activity is the College and associated motel and retail devel-
opment across the street. South of,ashland Street extending to
Walker Street is a commercial retail area. South of Walker a
mixture of neighborhood retail and residential development
dominate the landscape.
Ashland Street is Ashland's "other" commercial area. Once
just the highway to Klamath Falls, the road began developing in
earnest with the completion of the 1-5 freeway and the inter-
change at the intersection of Highway 66 and I-5. This area has
continued to develop, and now represents much of the newer
commercial area of the City. Located here are small commer-
cial businesses interspersed with three small shopping centers,
some office uses, a major convention center in this corridor, and
traveler's services clustered around the freeway interchange.
The major employers are traveler's accommodations, restan-
rants, and retailers.
The City's largest area of manufacturing employment is the
Mistletoe-Washington Street area. This large area, bounded by
the freeway on the east, the Railroad tracks and Tolman Creek
Road on the west, Ashland Street on the north, and Siskiyou
VII-10
Boulevard on the south is the largest area of private sector non-
retail employment in the City. In addition, it contains ample
land to support development of this kind for the foreseeable
future. Major employers in the area are Croman Corp., Ash-
land's largest manufacturing employer and the only remaining
sawmill, the Forest Service's Ashland Ranger. District, and a
vari..etyof.small. special. tyfi.rms. '... .....: ..-.. '. .....:-'
In addition, significant economic activity occurs in the form of
home occupations throughout the City. Many of Ashland's most
successful firms began as home occupations, and when they
outgrew their homes, moved to larger facilities. Others are
content to remain at a size that is appropriate to the residential
districts within which they are located. The policy of permitting
home occupations provides an important opportunity for small
businesses to start up with a minimum of cost and risk, and can
be thought of as an incubator for new ideas and concepts in
Ashland's economic life.
Survey of Commercial, Employment and Manufacturing Lands
Jackson County Tax Assessor records were examined to pro-
vide information on the size and value of Ashland's economic
areas. Ashland presently has three zones mostly devoted to
economic enterprises. They are Commercial, used .mostly for
retail and services, Manufacturing, for industrial uses, and
Employment, a combination of the two that allows for a wide
variety of uses while providing for site review to ensure neigh-
borhood compatibility and aesthetic design.
The 72 acres of developed commercial land contain the largest
amount of building improvements and building value. There
are 1,156,000 square feet of commercial buildings in Ashland in
1989, according to the Jackson County Assessor. The improve-
ments are valued at $39 million and the land at $17 million. As
of July, 1990, there were 31 acres of vacant land zoned C- 1, and
0.4 acres of vacant land zoned C1-D, which is a special down-
town overlay zone. Twelve of the vacant C- 1 acres are contained
on hilly land north of Ashland Hills lnn~ which has limited
potential for many retail and service uses. All th~ vacant land
.hasaccess'to adetluate public. services: ..' : i:.' ."".i" .' '. :::. ~ '.:' '"
The City has 45 acres of developed Manufacturing areas, but
only 61,000 square feet of buildings are reported in the Jackson
County Assessor's office. There are many spedal purpose
structures, such as wood kilns and some manufacturing build-
ings which are not included in these totals. Manufacturing lands
are assessed at $8.6 million, and the improvements at $1
million. The only area of vacant land zoned M,1 is a 21 acre
parcel of land south of Hersey Street which is owned by the
Southern Padtic Railroad, but is currently for sale. The prop-
erty has access to services but has limited transportation access
at present.
While 79 acres have been developed in Employment uses, the
total building square footage is only 400,000 square feet. The
buildings are valued at $9.5 million, and the land at $7 million.
AS of July 1990, 90 acres zoned E-1 remained vacant within the
City limits. Fifty-two acres have immediate access to services,
16 acres can be provided services within one year, and 22 acres
are associated with the Ashland Airport and have development
potential only for airport specialized uses.
Details of the City's vacant land survey are contained in the
report "Vacant Land in Ashland, July 1990".
VII-11
General Land Use Philosophy
Zoning should encourage a heterogenous mixture of uses,
including, where appropriate, residential uses. While residen-
tial uses are appropriate in some areas, those areas reserved for
h~a .vicr ..industri.al U.s.es. sho. uld. b.c. identified.:ex. clus. iye!y for.
economic 'activities."-.In 'addition' tO th~ existing'ic~nters of
economic activity, small, neighborhood scale retail areas, and
small employment uses should be permitted to mix with high
density residential uses in areas that are impacted with heavy
traffic.
It is important for the City's overall economic health that a high
standard of architectural design, sign control, and landscaping
be required of new developments. While this is most important
in areas that are highly visible or in buffer residential areas, it
can also be applied to industrial parks and similar areas.
Finally, Ashland's private sector functions best when there are
clearly defined rules stating what can and cannot be done. The
City's regulations should strive to provide dear guidance, and
assure that most decisions are predictable, dear, and based on
objective, measurable criteria.
Ashland's current regulations can be characterized as rigorous,
and the public process for achieving approval can be daunting.
While most would agree that Ashland's land use regulations
should protect the public interest and assure quality develop-
ment, the current process is in need of reform. What is needed
is clearer, more objective standards that involve less discretion,
especially in the realm of land use approvals in the planning
process. The uncertainty of the planning process is more
harmful to economic development than even a rigorous set of
VII-12
definitive regulations. Entrepreneurs are already beset with a
large risk in starting or moving a business, and uncertainty in the
City's process will chill the expansion of business in the City.
The City should revise its regulations and develop standards
which dearly delineate the proper realm for public regulation,.
and to provide a predictable. outcome to the approvfil process
when s.t.andards .am met" ' ' ': :' ~': · -:.-.,
.... ' '. ''" · :'. . ..'.:.'-).'~..'t ' ." · ·
What is needed to encourage ~he location ofnewfinns or the ex-
pansion of existing firms is the availability of reasonably priced,
fully senticed lots with flexible zoning regulations. A quick and
relatively certain approval process assures that projects can
develop rapidly, taking advantage of market opportunities in a
timely 'fashion. This can be accomplished without compromis-
ing Ashland's high standards for development. Therefore, the
continued annexation, subdivision, and development of Com-
mercial and Employment land is essential to the continued
health of the local economy. The City can do much to assist in
this process.
Ashland~ Future Population and the Labor Force
Changes in Ashland's population structure projected in Chap-
ter Five of the Comprehensive Plan indicate that between now
and 2005, the greatest proportionate population increase will
occur in the 35-65 year old age group, that is, the mature work
force. This increase of about 1,200 people among that segment
of the population in its most productive years could~of itself;
raise Ashland's income levels. This is especially likelyif they are
encouraged to take advantage of the economic opportunities
presented by the changing national and regional economy as
these become more internationalized and more dependent
upon the rapid flow of reliable information and its timely
interpretation and analysis.
A large percentage of Ashland's population has long been
college students aged 18-22 years. Over the next several years
college enrollments are expected to grow less rapidly than the
city's population, both because of enrollment caps and because
of a decHnlng number of high school graduates in the college's
traditional service area9. The student population is also ex-
pected to include an increasing share of mature students return-
ing to college after a period of time in the workforce. Therefore,
student population can be expected to depress average earnings
less in the future than has been the case in the past. Because the
student population is likely to be a smaller proportion of the
total and because more students will be earning family wages,
Ashland's mean household income should rise over the next few
years due to demographic changes alone. Failure to observe
such a rise in the future should be a matter of concern.
The increase in numbers of mature workers (ages 35-65) im-
plies that the economy will need to offer both a variety of satis-
fying jobs and a continued high quality of life in order to retain
its workforce. One of the most important things that the com-
munity can do, both to assure the retention of its mature
workers and to enhance their productivity and earnings, is to
foster communication and innovations that take advantage of
developing economic opportunities. In this process, SOSC
could be an invaluable asset, and so will the best possible
facilities for transportation and communications, both within
the region and to other parts of the world.
Table VII-10 projects Ashland's retiree population and com-
pares expectations for Ashland to those of Medford and the rest
of the county. There are three reasons not to expect retirees to
become a major force in Ashland's economy over the next
fifteen years. First, over the last thirty years, the percentage of
Ashland residents who are retired has not increased, but re-
mained constant, or perhaps even decreased~°. Second, the
cohort that appears to be responsible for most of Ashland's
growth in the past ten years, the "baby boomers", Will not yet be
entering retirement age by the end of this planning period.
Third, the erosion of Ashland'sretirement population relative
to Medford and the rest of Jackson county can be expected to
continue in light of the rapid increases in real-estate values
expected for Ashland, especially if these increases continue to
be. greater than the increases in the rest of the county.
Future Employment Distdbution
If there were to be no change in Ashland's employment struc-
ture between now and 2005, additional jobs would be distrib-
uted in the same proportion as currently, with three-quarters of
the growth in Services and Retail trade.
This appears to be the inevitable case. The Bonneville Power
Administration 1990 Coordination Agreement Forecast has
projected that in the Pacific Northwest Region, total job growth
will be 21% between 1988 and 1998 -- somewhat faster than
what Ashland has projected for our local economy (16% in the
same period). Only 7% of the regional job growth was pro-
jected to come from manufacturing. 3.1% was to come from
construction, 33% from services, 32% from wholesale and
retail, and 25% from other non-manufacturing. Therefore, it
seems likely that in the year 2005, Ashland will have the same
or even greater proportion of jobs in services and retail.
VII-13
VII-14
Table VII-6
SORSI/SOVA Tourism Data and
Model
Accomodafion TYP~ ,for those who stayed In Ashland:
Hotel or Motel 54.4%'
Bed & Breakfast 13.7%
Camping 6.2%
Friends or Relatives 16.2%
Other 9.1%
Tourism Model and Estimates ( benchmark year:
19s9)
Total Rooms Rented to Tourists
Summer (June - Sept.) 91,800
Non Summer 80,850
Total Hotel Rooms 172,650
Number of Hotel VlsEor Days
Summer (Party 2.5) 229,500
Non Summer (Party 2.0) 161,700
Total Hotel Visitor Days 391,200
Total Hotel Visitors
Summer (3 days) 76,500
Non Summer (2 days) 80,850
Total 157,350
Total Ashland Visitors
Summer (31% Non-hotel) 110,870
Non Summer (25% Non-hotel) 107,800
Business and Other Visitors 40,000
Total Annual Visitors
258,670
Future Growth and Development of ~hhmd [v Economic Bases
General
While Ashland has qualities that make it attractiv6 to many
businesses, it is not a suitable location for some industries. Busi-
nesses, such as fruit packing plants which consume large quan-
tities of water, plants which produce large mounts of air poilu-
tion, or petrochemical plants which produce toxic wastes, would
not be welcome, and could cause disruption of public services.
With'the exception of these types of industries, Ashland can
provide for the lands set aside for commercial and industrial de-
velopment~ all key public facilities. All of Ashland's commer-
cial and industrial land resource either has or has access to
adequate sewer, water, transportation, and storm drainage.
Tourism
Ashland has a large number of visitors every year. Some of
these are tourists, but not all. Visitors include tourists, persons
attending conventions held in the City, business travelers here
on business actMty, persons visiting relatives, and travelers
simply spending the night before heading on their way. The
tourist industry, therefore, may concentrate on the tourist as
many people assume they are, but also serve the other visitors
in varying degrees.
From 1981 to 1989, OSF increased attendance by 30%, from
264,000 in 1980 to 344,000 in 1990. During the same period,
total hotel. rooms sold in Ashland increased by 173% -- from
90,753 in 1981 to 247,624 in 1989. The increase in hotel rooms
was much greater than the increase in attendance at OSF. Some
of the possible reasons that this occurred was that many patrons
for OSF were previously staying in other accommodations in
Jackson County, and also, a growing percentage of tourism is in-
dependent of OSF.
In 1990, the Southern Oregon Visitor's Association (SOVA)
contracted with. the :Southern. Oregon Regional Services Insti-
'tute'(8ORSI).to c.0ndu.ct research:on tourism in Jackson County.'
RebecCa Reid was the primary researcher for this project. The
results shed some new light on the nature of tourism in Jackson
County and Ashland.
Extensive interviews were conducted with 434 visitors to the
area in Lithia Park from the period from June through Septem-
ber in 1990. Of the persons interviewed, only 227, or 52%, were
staying the night in Ashland. Of these, 15% stayed with friends
or relatives, 7% were camping, 9% stayed at other accommoda-
tions (such as the youth hostel) 13% stayed at a bed and
breakfast inn, and 56% were in motel or hotel lodging.
Using this data, and other data gathered from the survey, Reid
built a model of visitor census in Ashland. The model's results
are contained in Table VII-6. It shows that Ashland has a total
visitor population of 258,670, with about one half occurring
during the summer months.
For the past 20 years, increases in the annual sales of tickets to
OSF performances has been considered the primary reason
more tourists were coming to Ashland. However, as the tourism
industry and OSF matured, this correlation has become looser.
In the plan period, OSF plans only minor increases in total
annual sales, on the order of 5% or less. In addition, other
attractions in the area have increased, and will continue to
cause the tourist census to increase, albeit at a slower rate than
the last 20 years. Richards and Pirsadeth'~, in their study of the
Ashland economy, estimated that Ashland tourism would in-
crease by 42% by the year 2005 independent of increases in
ticket sales at OSF. Therefore, total tourist census projected in
the year 2005 would be 310,000 :annually. ~
Actual t..oufis.t activi.ty .will depend equally on what'is done. in
Ashland to'attract andac~o'm'mbdate t0tiris~. Inevitab13/, 'pro-
grams implemented successfully to maintain the local quality of
life will also attract tourists, but independent of policies de-
signed for the benefit of residents, the city's community and
government can act both to promote tourism and to maintain
adequate city services and resources. Projects such as the
proposed Pacific Institute of Natural Sciences or "off-
Shakespeare" theater productions will go a long way toward
supplying the tourist attraction required to meet the projected
demand~.
Since they are almost 1,000 rooms in Ashland and the immedi-
ately surrounding area, an additional 420 rooms would be
needed to meet this demand, if no steps are undertaken to
expand the length of the tourist season or otherwise alter
today's occupancy rates. At about 950 square feet of gross land
area per room, including amenities such as laundry and parking,
this implies an additional 9.5 acres for hotels and motels. Dif-
ferent densities of land use resulting from different architec-
tural design in the industry would, of course, lead to different
land requirements.
The tourist sector, unlike other divisions of the economy, is
defined not by product, but by market. Consequently, a large
variety of activities cater, at least in part, to tourists. The tourist
proportion of a community's trade is significant because it
allows the community to "import" goods and services from
VII-15
beyond its boundaries. Tourism can also be beneficial because
tourists patronize a wide variety of establishments and conse-
Table VII-7
quently contribute to diversification of the goods and products Restraunts in Ashland and
produced locally. Tourism thus promotes specialization in Comparable CRies
production and consumption of a greater variety of goods than
the community itself can efficiently produce. When businesses Town Population Restmums Restrauras per
· that Cater.substant. ia~y: to tourists are examined, it'is'immedi- Capita . .
· atdy ap'~ar~iit.'that t..he. prop 'drtion of an'es~ablishmint's trad~. - ":Grants Pass16,93094 .0056
that is due to tourismvaries significantly both with business typeBend 18,970 96 .0051
and with individual establishments in a given trade. Roseberg 16,240 76 .0047
Klamath Falls17,430 81 .0046
Among establishments associated with the tourist trade, those Or.egon City15,030 59 .0039
Ashland 16,310 63 .0039
that cater most nearly exclusively to tourists are the hotels, Ullwaulkle 18,435 62 .0034
motels and inns. There are no exact figures, but it is likely that
85% or more of their business can be classified as tourist trade.
This proportion canbe expected to be lower, but still substantialthe percentage of their total receipts earned in each month of
in the entertainment, restaurant and retail trades. the year. The difference between the minimum month and each
of the other months was then calculated and summed, to derive
To test the popular notion that Ashland, due to heavy touristthe total seasonality of demand. Seasonal demand was derived
traffic, has more than its share of restaurants, Table VII-7 corn-in the same way using national statistics for restaurant sales.
pares the number of restaurants in Ashland to the number in
other Oregon cities of comparable size. In fact, Ashland hasThe difference between national seasonal variation and local
fewer restaurants per resident than Grants Pass, Roseburg, orseasonal variation was then calculated and assumed to be
Klamath Falls. Cities of comparable size with equal or fewerattributable exclusively to tourism. This yielded the result that
restaurants per person are the suburban towns in the Portlandabout half of total restaurant sales are due to tourists. Because
metropolitan area, Milwaukie and Oregon City. The reasons only 13 of 60 questionnaires were returned, the survey was
for Ashland's position in this comparison should be investi-unable to prove that the importance of tourists to restaurants
gated, as the logical conclusion, that Ashland residents eat outvaries according to the restaurants' location. However, ques-
less often than people elsewhere, invites explanation. This tionnaires were coded according to area and it appears that
could be explained by the large proportion of relatively expert-downtom restaurants and those north of downtom get about
sive restaurants which could invite opportunities for inexpert-half their business from tourists, those on Siskiyou Boulevard
sive restaurants directed at the local resident. south of the library or near the College depend on tourists for
only a tenth of their business, and those on Highway 66 beyond
Restaurant managers were also asked to calculate or estimatethe freeway are even more heavily dependent upon the tourist
VII-16
trade than those downtown.
Education
Although the State Board of Higher Education has placed a cap
on enrollments-at Southern Oregon State College, it is likely
that this institutionwill remain a motor of economic growth for
the city through generation of payroll, lo'cal purchases by em-
ployees and students, enhancement of student abilities to find
or make jobs for themselves in Ashland, and as an incubator for
innovations and as a favorable attraction for education-inten-
sive firms that may be considering the move to Ashland. If the
College is to become an active force in attracting new industry
from outside the region, it needs to develop greater capacity for
post-graduate education and research, but only a few such de-
velopments can be anticipated in the near future because of
limited state resources.
Retail Sales and Services
Research by John Richards and Hassan Pirsedeth, projected
retail sales as a function of population, personal income of
residents and tourist census. The results indicate that there
could be an increase in retail sales volume of 31% between 1987
and 1992. For every $1000 increase in gross income, Ashland
residents increase their retail spending by $249 inAshland. The
average tourist spends $237 in Ashland. Increases in the
number of tourists, personal income and the non-student popu-
lation contribute more to retail sales than do increases in col-
lege enrollments24
Based on the 1987 Census figures for Retail trade, and the lack
of retail construction during the 1980's it appears that Ashland
may experience an increase of retailing actMty in the next few
years, especially retailing directed at the local population. If
this happens, it will increase the turnover of local dollars earned
from such sources as tourism or manufacturing. Without a sig-
nificant retail market aimed at local residents, any benefidal
growth in manufacturing, for example, will primarily benefit the
external retail markets where Ashlanders go to shop. The lack
of availability of a sufficient quantity and quality of goods
locally has adverse affects in local employment, and increases
transportation problems, both locally and regionally. While it
is unrealistic to expect that Ashland will capture all local retail
sale demand, the example of other, similarity sized cities in
close proximity to major retailing centers indicate that Ashland
could expand its local retail market.
Services are well represented in Ashland. While some are low
paying, such as the hotel industry, others, such as software
services, offer better pay and increasing demand. Many serv-
ices, such as software development, have markets out of the
area, and are essentially exporting their commodities. The
future economywill rely on information services as much as raw
and finished materials, and Ashland, with its highly educated
work force, will be in an excellent position to capitalise on this
expanding market. Information essentially has no bulk, trans-
portation costs of the product are insignificant, and it is feasible
to conduct a national or international business from a small,
rural city. This has as much potential for export based job
creation as has light manufacturing.
Another basic need for local retailing is to form traditional re-
tailing centers for neighborhoods. One way to reduce traffic
flows on major arterials is to provide local stores oriented to
specific neighborhoods. These small centers provide basic
VII-17
goods and services, and also form the focus of neighborhood
development. An analysis of Ashland's neighborhoods indi-
cates that three are without neighborhood retailing within
convient walking distance, Quiet Village, North Main/Wimer,
and East Main/North Wightman. The Plan and Zoning map
should be modified .to accommodate more local retail services
at locations that are convenient to these neighborhoods.
Manufacturing
There is one mill remaining in Ashland, Crowman Corporation,
which produces primary timber products such as lumber. It
employs about 130 people. A second mill, Parson's Pine,
specializes in remanufacturing odd-cuts of lumber and employs
some 90 people. Ashland timber-based manufacturing appears
largely to have stabilized since the shake-outs of the early part
of the decade. The trend now appears to be for the large
resident firms to continue to diversify their product lines and
markets without growing rapidly. At the same time, the number
of small firms using wood as the basic raw material has been
slowly increasing in Ashland over the last ten years.
This information indicates that Ashland-based wood products
manufacturers are using inputs more efficiently, diversifying
their product lines, adding more value to the products sold, and
perhaps reaching broader markets. All of these are healthy
trends which should help insulate the local economy from
economic shocks in the future. In addition, these trends should
allow moderate growth to continue in thewood products indus-
try, despite gradual timber harvest decline, due to product and
process innovations.
Non-timber manufacturing, on the other hand, is one of the few
areas where job creation can occur with wages above the county
VII-18
average. For this sector to expand, Ashland needs to encourage
the development of flat, inexpensive land that is fully serviced,
and to ensure that regulatory involvement is kept simple and
predictable in these areas, as business decisions often must be
made quickly. The best way to encourage the growth of this.
sector is by ensuring a high quality of life, and good and efficient
provision of city services.
FUTURE LAND NEEDS ANO EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION
Estimating future land needs is both necessary for a Compre-
hensive Plan, and somewhat risky. The land needs estimate is
usually based on the number of employees per acre, and this
varies greatly among uses. In addition, there is no standardized
database to use for projections, and planners have-relied on
rules of thumb based on limited surveys. With the knowledge
that the land needs can only be estimated, a projection can
however be based on future employment.
In the 1982 Comprehensive plan, a figure of 10 employees per
acre was used, and it appears to have reasonably served the City
as a method of projecting gross land needs. It is similar to
figures used by other Oregon cities for industrial needs, as
Roseberg uses 8.5 employees per acre, and Albany uses 9.5 in
their land needs projections. Commercial land needs are often
projected using population, and again, Roseberg uses 1.3 acres
per 100 persons, and Albany 1 acre per 100 persons.
Ashland's land use appears to be more intensive than these two
cities. Ashland has a total land area of 196 acres developed for
commercial and industrial use. This is land solely in private
ownership,' and an adjustment needs to be made for public
roads, easements, and parkinglots. As this is about 40% of land
use in commercial areas, the total land used by Ashland's
economy is 274 acres. This land supports about 4500 employ-
ees--Ashland's employment total, not including public sector,
non profit, and Valley View Road employees. The resulting
ratio is about 16 employees per acre. While this is higher than
the projection estimate, it includes areas such as the downtown,
which has taken years to develop to its current intensity. There-
fore, using 10 employees per acre-is a p .rodent proj.ection as-
sumption. .' ' ~ -. '~.' ~. ".
By applying the present proportion of employed people in
Ashland to the projected population in 2005, we can get a gen-
eral idea of the number of jobs that will be needed by 2005. Two
estimates can be derived for this proportion, one from State
Employment figures for Jackson county, and one from the
comprehensive employment data bank compiled for this study.
For Ashland, City figures yield 37%, and countywide, the ratio
is 39%. Applying these proportions to the expected population
of 19,995 for 2005 predicts that employment in Ashland will
grow by between 1,350 and 1,750 additional jobs over the next
16 years, representing a yearly growth of less than 2% of the
1989 base. For the projections for land use in the City, the as-
sumption is that Ashland will be close to the countywide em-
ployment to population ratios.
An additional 1,750 new jobs translates into a need for about
175 acres of new land area for all commercial, employment, and
industrial needs. In addition, 9.5 acres oflandwould be needed
to accommodate tourism needs in the planning period, for a
total of 185 acres. However, the employment densities vary
tremendously. Retail employment can be from 20 employees
an acre in shopping centers to 200 an acre in an employment
intensNe, downtown use. Industrial needs can range from a
high of 35 to 40 employees an acre for labor intensive uses to 1
employee an acre or less for land intensive activities, such as
warehousing or transportation related activities. The exact mix
of retailing, services, wholesaling, and manufacturing is impos-
sible to predict and difficult to control, so forecasting should err
on the side of allowing ample, rather than restrictive policies for
land availability. The City should ensure that the Comprehen-
sive plan includes at least 184 acres of land, and also. that it
include land that '~ suitable for a range. of. economic'acti~fies,'.
such~:as retailing,:'0ffi.ce uses; wat:eh0using, mad man"ufacmring.
Currently the City has 31 acres of Commercial land, 101 acres
of land zoned Employment, and 21 acres of vacant Manufactur-
ing land, for a total of 152 acres. This leaves a deficit of 32 acres
of land to be provided in the Urban Growth Boundary. With a
few minor exceptions, the major area of vacant land is the area
bounded by the railroad and the freeway, between Ashland
Street (Highway 66) and Crowson Road. This area contains 66
vacant acres. In addition there are another 10 acres vacant in
the Urban Growth Boundary(UGB), mostly in the vicinity of
Ashland Street and the 1-5 freeway. The total of vacant land in
the Urban Growth Boundary, is 106, more than the required 32.
Therefore, there is ample land in Ashland's UGB to sustain the
local economic expansion anticipated.
While the "extra" 74 acres of land is not needed in an absolute
sense, it is all committed to urbanization by the existing land use
patterns and the extension ofsereices. For example,most of the
vacant land is in the area bounded by Siskiyou, Crowson, East
Main, and Ashland Street. Most of the rest is in the Valley View
area. Specific uses will need to locate on these lands, and
annexations should occur not only because other land is not
available in the City, but also because land proposed for an-
nexation meets the specific site requirements of the proposed
new use.
VII-19
Economic DiversiTtcation and Wage Trends
Economic diversification is considered essential for the general
economic health of a community as it insulates the workforce
from cyclical trends inthe national economy while helping to
maintain a broad base for egalitarian access to amenities.
A review of the sectoral allocation of employment in Ashland
(Table VII-3), as stated earlier, demonstrates that the retail
trades and services employ an unusually high percentage of job-
holders in Ashland, at 34% and 40%, respectively. While these
are the sectors that have been growing fastest throughout the
county, state and country over the last decade or more, they are
the lowest paying sectors outside of agriculture, at 64% and
91% of average wage respectively. However, these sectors also
contain employment categories that are relatively high on the
wage scale, such as the financial, insurance, medical and legal
fields, or that provide a fairly good wage and good benefits, such
as employment at Southern Oregon State College or a general
merchandise department store.
Also, while the retail and service sectors do not always provide
a high wage rate, it is beneficial to the community to encourage
local retail and service spending, both from an economic and an
overall planning perspective. While Ashland has room for
growth in this area, these sectors should not be depended upon
to provide large numbers of high wage jobs, but rather to
provide a few highly paid jobs and a large number of middle to
lower income jobs, beneficial to entry level workers, second
income earners, students and others who need part time work.
It is evident from. wage trends in Jackson County that the
services sector enjoyed a slow but steady rise in wages relative
to other sectors from 1980 to 1987, and that the wage rate may
VII-20
have stabilized at approximately 90% of average. This has
occurred despite the fact that wages in the lodging industry have
remained near 40% of the average and it suggests that the
service sector has itself been evolving towards higher-value
activities. This impression is roinforced by a review of wage
growth in finance, insurance and real estate (the-"business
services" sector), where there has been a generally constant
increase in relative wages from below average in 1980 to
roughly 10% above average today.
The major employment sectors offering above-average wages
are contract construction, manufacturing including wood prod-
ucts, wholesale trade, and transportation, communications and
public utilities, in declining order of total employment. Manu-
facturing wages dropped from 144% of average in 1980, re-
maining at roughly 130% since 1982, largely as a result of a
similar but somewhat more pronounced drop in wood-products
wages. The difference between wood products wages and total
manufacturing wages has declined considerably over the dec-
ade.
Wages have been less stable in the construction industry over
the decade than in any other sector outside of agriculture or
mining. While employment in the construction industry is cur-
rently high, this is a very volatile sector, and depends largely on
increased in-migration forexpansion. Thus construction cannot
be considered as a target sector for economic development
except to the extent that local firms can compete for jobs
elsewhere or replace non-local firms in local construction.
It appears that the City's best strategy is to anticipate that the
majority of job creation will be in the services and retail sector.
Ashland should work to encourage job creation in the manufac-
turing sector as well. However, there will not be many of these
jobs available in the planning period, and there will be a lot of
competition from other communities for them. The best strat-
egy is to encourage service and retail jobs, as well as manufac-
turing jobs, which pay wages equal to or higher than the County
average.
It is important to note, however, that little economic change can
occur by discouraging economic activity that is not as desireable
as others. While the City may not wish to encourage or give
incentives to businesses with low paying jobs, it is counter pro-
ductive to actively discourage the enterprises that do not desire
City help. If such jobs are created, the market place should
decide the wage rate. Land use policies that discourage low
wage jobs will have little impact, and may prevent start-up
operations that eventually would contribute a great deal to the
local economy.
Suitability of Vacant Land for Anticipated Uses
Considering where the job creation is projected to occur, the
City's land inventory needs to be analyzed to determine if suf-
ficient land, with the right characteristics, exists for the pro-
jected uses. Ashland's vacant land inventory show that the
following three general categories exist:
1) Flat land (less than 10% slopes), existing or suitable for
creation of large parcels, (greater than 1 acre). Total acreage
that fits this category is 133 acres in the city limits, and 103 acres
in the urban growth boundary. Of the land in the city limits, 15
acres are zoned commercial, 97 acres are zoned employment,
and 21 acres are zoned for manufacturing. Of the land in the
urban growth boundary, 103 acres are designated for employ-
ment uses, and 4 acres are designated for commercial uses. This
type of land is suitable for manufacturing, large office, services,
retail, and large scale tourism, with mixed residential uses as an
ancillary use.
Some of the large parcels in specific locations should not be
permitted to develop for tourism use, as they are more suitable
for higher wage service and retail uses. An example would be
that the downtom area and the freeway zones are well suited to
tourism development, but the Ashland Street Corridor from
Washington Street to Siskiyou Boulevard should be reserved
for retail, service, and mixed uses. This should be specifically
outlined in the zoning for the sites.
2) Flat land, (less than 10% slopes), small parcels (less than 1
acre). Total acreage is 6 acres in 18 sites, all in the city limits. of
these, 2.25 acres are zoned commercial, 0.4 is zoned C1-D, and
3.52 acres are zoned employment. These are suitable for the
location of Service and Retail needs, as well as some tourism.
3) Sloping land (greater than 10% slope). Total acreage is 17
in three sites, 13 acres zoned commercial and 4 acres in employ-
ment. This land is generally unsuitable for manufacturing, large
scale retail, and large scale service sector development. It is
better suited to office use, tourism, and mixed commercial and
residential uses, where a variety of small scale buildings can be
accommodated on the slope without large scale cutting and
filling.
4) There also exists a need to permit some conversion of
residential land surrounding Ashland Community Hospital to
take the best advantage of medically related jobs. Such busi-
nesses, such as doctors and other medical specialists, and
specialty sales such as pharmacies are best located in proximity
to the Hospital. This not only encourages the growth of these
well paying service sector jobs, it also enhances medical services
VII-21
in the community, and reduces traffic by placing similar facili-
ties withinwalking distance of each other. This area already has
a commitment to the Hospital, as a conversion from residential
to commercial has taken place over the last 20 years. The needs
of the medical community to expand in this area must be evalu-
ated, and an area designated with zoning that will allow medical
uses outright, retaining a higher degree of landscaping than
commercial areas, and facilitating the pedestrian _communica-
tion between uses in this area and the hospital.
CONCLUSION
Ashland will see as many as 1750 new jobs created by the year
2005, mostly in the services and retail sector. Up to 184 acres of
land will be needed to accommodate this expansion, but this
could vary significanfiy due to variations in employment needs
within the different economic sectors.
Ashland's economy is more specialized in services and retail
sales than is either the State or Jackson County. Part of the local
specialization is due to SOSC, which accounts for one-quarter
of Service industry employment, and part is due to the tourist
trade. In the past nine years, Ashland appears to have con-
formed to the national, state and county trends of adding more
small businesses, especially in the services and retail sectors.
However, this trend is very pronounced in Ashland and a large
number of these firms employ only one or two people, indicat-
ing that they are not entrepreneurial but merely self-supportive
in nature.
Tourist counts could increase by nearly 50% by 2005 if adequate
levels of services, accommodations and entertainment facilities
are supplied. This projection is largely independent of short-
term fluctuations in the national economy. This change will
VII-22
require an expansion of public fadlities, especially parks, streets,
and parking, or innovative programs to reduce traffic through
non-structural alternatives such as the provision of mass transit
services for both local residents and visitors.
More hotel-motel accommodations can be supported by the
additional tourists. If no additional rooms are built, more
people will stay in nearby communities and come to Ashland by
car, causing additional traffic and parking problems. Building
motels and hotels in Ashland will allow the city to encourage the
use of public transport or shuttle services in town, and will
provide additional employment and tax base. At present occu-
pancy rates, however, it would take an additional nine and one
half acres to provide the number of rooms that will be de-
manded at the peak month in the year 2005.
The City should encourage those tourism-related facilities that
increase the variety of services offered and wages paid, such as
new theaters and scientific exhibits. The City should accommo-
date new hotel rooms sufficient to allow tourists whose primary
destination is Ashland to stay in the City limits.
The major focus for diversification of Ashland's economy over
the present planning period should be diversification of mar-
kets. There is such a risk in depending upon any one economic
sector, such as tourism, as the major export market for locally
produced goods and services. Establishment of light manufac-
turing firms with high value-added components should be
especially encouraged. Sophisticated services catering to a
geographically dispersed clientele and retailing targeted to
local residents should be encouraged as well.
Demand for real estate inAshland may continue to drive prices
up. This may make it more difficult to attract independent small
business people to Ashland, and more difficult to attract highly
educated personnel to Southern Oregon State College. Either
of these circumstances could reduce Ashland's ability to diver-
sify its economy. However, it is apparent that nationwide, qual-
ity-of-life factors tend to outweigh cost factors in the establish-
ment of new, "footloose" enterprises, as long as business costs
are not prohibitive.: Therefore, an aggressive affordable hous-
ing policy will be a key to Ashland's long term economic health,
as the economy can diversify only as long as it is supplied by a
local labor market. It is not realistic to assume that Ashland
wages can be raised to the level required for the average worker
in Ashland to be able to afford the average new home in
Ashland in 1990.
Retirees are not expected to be a major influence in Ashland's
economy over the next fifteen years. In fact, relative to Medford
and the rest of Jackson County, Ashland's retirement popula-
tion is expected to decrease due to rising real-estate values.
These rising costs appear to have discouraged nearby non-
locals from retiring to Ashland. Ashland residents seem able to
retire here, but are concerned with rising property taxes once
incomes are fixed.
Southern Oregon State College will continue to be an economic
force in the community, but until it develops a stronger research
capacity and graduate offerings, it is unlikely to increase its
impact on the City's economy. A stronger educational compo-
nent could serve both product diversification through a basic
sciences component, and market diversification through the
business and social sciences components.
These components could attract knowledge-intensive manufac-
turing such as computer software and medical specialty busi-
nesses to Ashland. Educational facilities and professional serv-
ices are other types of businesses that could be expected to
locate and flourish in Ashland. Establishment of an Asian
Studies center, affiliated with the College or independent, is an
important step toward educational enhancement of marketing
potential.
· .The bulk .of Ash!andeS imanufac. turing. remains.'. in the wood: ~
produc{s sector, bUt'several sin'all'firms are adding new lines of
products in this sector. Overall, Ashland's manufacturing base
has diversified somewhat over the last five years, but its diversity
rests in large part on very small firms. The city might do well to
consider the tenuous nature of the first few years for such firms,
and to especially encourage entrepreneurial firms (those that
provide employment for more than the owning household).
While some of these can capitalize on the tourist market, awiser
strategy may be to encourage access to broader markets.
The city needs to develop policy options which strike a balance
between the growth of tourism and the growth of population
and markets. One possible option is to explore new markets for
the City's manufacturers. Policies to attract businesses of 10-50
employees or to encourage existing manufacturers to grow to
that size, might enable individual firms to expand the city's
market area by penetrating more distant markets.
The City should encourage local businesses to concentrate on
increasing the value added in manufacturing, while encourag-
ing new firms with high-value-added products to settle here.
Markets should be the primary target of economic diversifica-
tion efforts in Ashland over the present planning period. While
marketing cooperatives may be an avenue to pursue, every
VII-23
attempt should be made to utilize the State's marketing re-
sources available through the Oregon Department of Eco-
nomic Development and the Federal resources available through
the Small Business Administration and Foreign Trade Admini-
stration. The City and SORSI might cooperate to help make
these resources more readily available to local entrepreneurs.
· '. ~: .. · . . · ~. · ..' , : .
ASSUMPTIONS: :
The employment to total population ratio within the City will
approximately equal 39% by the year 2005. Ashland will add
approximately 1,750 jobs during this time. Most of these jobs
will be in the service and retail sectors. An additional 175 acres
of land will be developed during this time to accommodate the
increase in job creation.
Unemployment rates within the City will remain relatively con-
stant throughout the planning period due to continued immi-
gration.
Commercial and industrial activities are generally urban uses
and, as such, shall occur within the urban growth boundary.
Non-urban, resource-based employment (i.e., forestry, fishing,
mining and agriculture) will not provide significant employ-
ment growth in the future.
New development will consume about one acre of land for every
10 new jobs added to Ashland, although there will be a wide
range on individual projects, from 0.1 jobs per acre to 100 jobs
per acre and more.
There will be a need to accommodate substantial increase in
tourism, which will require the addition of 420 hotel rooms over
the planning period, and this will create a need for about 9.5
acres of development of hotel and motels.
The role of the City in economic development is to encourage,.
but not lead nor to overly regulate, the marketplace. -
'GoAL:TO ENSURE THAT THE LOCAL ECONOMY IN-
CREASES IN ITS HEALTH, AND DIVERSIFIES IN THE
NUMBER, TYPE AND SIZE OF BUSINESSES CONSIS-
TENT WITH THE LOCAL SOCIAL NEEDS, PUBLIC SERV-
ICE CAPABILITIES, AND THE RETENTION OF A HIGH
QUALITY ENVIRONMENT.
1) Policy - The City shall zone and designate within the
Plan Map sufficient quantity of lands for commercial and
industrial uses to provide for the employment needs of its
residents and a portion of rural residents consistent with the
population projection for the urban area.
2) Policy. The City shah design the Land Use Ordinance
to provide for:
a)Land division and development within employment
and manufacturing districts, and continue the employment
zoning district which will provide for service, retail, and light
industrial uses consistent with specific performance standards
relative to heavy truck traffic, noise, dust, vibration, and single-
passenger vehicle trips.
b)ControHed access along Ashland Street to ensure
limited points of common access to businesses that are develop-
ing or undergoing development in this area.
c)Specific development guidelines which will ensure
that:
New development or redevelopment in the His-
toric District will be compatible with the character of the
district. .
Development along Siskiyou Boulevard and
Ashland Street will not primarily be automobile-oriented, but
will also include attractive landscaping and designs that en-
courage pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit forms of travel
- Strong sign regulations exist which ensure
that the number, size and placement of signs are the minimum
required for recognition by the public of the business at the site.-
d)Retail, office, traveler's accommodations and neighborhood
shopping in residential areas, at development intensities that
are appropriate to the area.
e) Commercial or employment zones where business and resi-
dential uses are mixed.. This is especially appropriate as buff-
ers between residential and employment or commercial areas,
and in the Downtown.
e) Medical uses as permitted uses in a designated, zoned area
surrounding the Hospital and Maple Street.
f)Clear and objective standards for development reviews that
provide for a quick and predictable approval process with a
reduced amount of uncertainty.
3) Policy - The City shall develop and implement an eco-
nomic development program which will attempt to increase the
number, variety and size of retail, service, and light industrial
activity employers within the urban area, with particular
emphasis on employers who pay wages at or above the median
County wage and employ from 5 to 100 people, or who are
locally owned. The City shall work with regional economic de-
velopment agencies on coordinating regional economic devel-
opment activities.
4)Policy. In accordance with policies VII-2 and VII-3 above,
the City shall take such actions as are necessary to ensure that
economic development can occur in a timely and efficient
manner. Such actions may include the following:
' a)Use of the Local Improvement District process to
reconstruct or install public facilities to commercial, employ-
ment, and manufacturing zoned lands. Land and buildings
should be suitable for use by small service and manufacturing
industries of about 10 to 50 employees. Two areas of the City
that would benefit from this policy are those lands designated
Employment served by Exit 14 of the 1.5 freeway and Hersey
Street and "A" Street.
b) Utilization of available grants and loans to finance
the extension of public facilities to lands zoned or planned for
commercial or industrial use.
c)Inclusion within the Capital Improvement programs
facilities improvements which will help achieve long-range
development goals and policies.
d) Creation of incentives for the private sector to develop
and divide Employment and Manufacturing lands, making
VII-25
them available for commercial and manufacturing uses.
5)The City shall encourage economic development of the local
resources and enhance employment opportunities for existing
residents. The City's policy is that economic development shah
always have as its _primary purpose the enhancement of the
community's economicl health.
6)The City shall work with the College to encourage the growth
of research and graduate programs. The City shall encourage
the establishment of the Asian Studies facility, and other such
facilities that provide a bridge to the international market-
place.
VII-26
7) The City is clearly unsuitable for the following types of
businesses:
a) Businesses which use large amounts of water, espe-
cially when Ashland's water needs peak.
b) Businesses that emit significant' amounts of air pol-
lution.
c) Businesses that create toxic wastes that require spe-
cialized disposal techniques not available locally.
The City shall include in the Land Use Ordinance specific list
of businesses that are prohibited from operations in the City
Limits, or specific performance standards that would define
uses that are unacceptable because they meet one or more of the
above criteria.
City of Ashland, City Plan, 1980, pVII-9.
FuturePlan Festival final report, October, 1989.
3 Don Laws, Public Opinion Survey, Southern Oregon State College, Spring,
1989.
Personal conversation with Chuck Butler, January, 1990
Ashland Comprehensive Plan, Chapter VII, Table 2
~ These figures are calculated from a list of employers and employment f~ures
compiled from data supplied by City Business Licenses, the Oregon State
Employment Division, and cross-cttecked against Polk's Ashland City Direc-
tory and the US West Yellow Pages. Employment data not supplied in gov-
ernment records were estimated and spot checked by telephone survey.
? City Government employment is as reported in the City's Comprehensive
Financial Report for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1988, p132. The number
given here combines Parks and Recreation Department personnel with other
Municipal employees.
s Personal Conversation with Chuck Butler, January, 1990
9 Oregon State System of Higher Education. Projections of High School
Graduates, 1990 - 2005, Eugene, OR.
Bureau of the Census, United States Census, 1960, 1970, 1980.
n Richards and Pirsedeth Study
32 Mr. Paul NichoLson, Executive Director, OSF, Personal Interview, June
1989.
~3 Reid, Rebecca. "Projections of Attendance and Selected Revenues and
Expenses" Exhibit 9 of the Pacific Institute of Natural Saleaces' request for a
conditional land use permit submitted to the Ashland City Council, 14 Nov,
1988.
~4 While retail sales have grown at an increasing rate over the last forty years,
student enrollments have grown only linearly, and actually declined from 1972
to 1982, so that the relationship between student enrollments and retail sales
appears to be negative overall. This is most likely an anomaly of the years for
which data are available and should not be interpreted to mean that increas-
ing enrollments lead to a reduction of retail sales.
VII-27
ORD. 2651 11/2/91
.a~mds. Ashland Comp. Plan - Chpt. VII -
"ECONOMY".