HomeMy WebLinkAbout2006-0906 Study Session Packet
CITY OF
ASHLAND
CITY COUNCIL TUDY SESSION
AG
Wednesday, Septem r 6,2006 at 5:15 p.m.
Council ChamberS, 175 East Main Street
1. Discussion of Mount Ashland
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CITY OF
ASHLAND
Council Communication
Study Session - Discussion of Mt Ashland
Meeting Date: September 6, 2006
Department: Administration
Contributing Departments: Public
Approval: Martha Benn
Estimated Time: 2 hours
- Finance
Primary Staff Contact:
E-mail:
Secondary Staff Contact:
E-mail:
Martha Bennett
bennettm@ashland.or.us
Paula Brown
brownp@ashland.or.us
Statement:
As discussed at your August 15, 2006 Regular Meeting, this study session has been scheduled to brief the
Council on the status of the direction and requests you made of both staff and the Mt. Ashland Association (MAA)
in Resolution 2005-35.
Staff Recommendation:
1. Council direct staff to bring forward an agreement with MAA for the QA/QA Team, with the terms that are
proposed for your consideration on page 4 of Attachment 2.
2. Council initiate formation of the QA/QC Advisory Group
3. Council provide direction to staff as to how to receive more detailed information on the business plan.
Should we request that MAA submit the document as confidential and schedule an Executive Session or
should we hire an independent contractor to evaluate the business plan and submit a summary report to
the City?
4. Council should direct staff to work with the Forest Service after the current litigation is completed to
develop a revised list of activities and costs that would be required for restoration of the ski area both
before and after expansion.
5. Council should provide direction to staff as to whether it wishes to appraise the existing assets of the MAA
to ensure that the current lease requirements of $200,000 are available. If the value of assets exceeds
$220,000 the City would pay 100% of the costs of this appraisal.
Background:
The City Council passed Resolution 2005-35 on September 8,2005 (see attachment (1)). There were four
primary elements to this resolution:
1. The City Council shall take reasonable steps to estimate the cost of removal and restoration, including the
planned expansion area, in accordance, at a minimum, with the restoration standards specified by the
Forest Service Environmental Assessment and Decision Notice of April 1992 (Altemative C).
2. The City of Ashland requested MAA provide a Business Plan.
3. The City Council shall cooperate with MAA to appoint a QA/QC team to oversee construction and
protection of the watershed.
4. The City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual agreement with MAA to implement this
resolution before future construction activities commence.
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The discussion document included as attachment 2 addresses the first three of these items. The staff report
discusses the QAlQC process first, followed by an analysis of the business plan and then the discussion of the
removal and restoration costs.
Related City Policies:
City of Ashland Lease with Mt Ashland Association
Council Options:
This item is for discussion only. Council should give staff direction to return at a regular Council meeting with any
items that require formal Council action.
Attachments:
1. Resolution 2005-35
2. Staff Report
3. Michael Hogan Resume and References
4. Business Plan and other correspondence submitted by Mr. Ashland Association on August 9, 2006.
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RESOLUTION NO. 2005-35
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY OF ASHLAND IDENTIFYING CITY POLICY
RELATING TO THE CITY'S OBLIGATIONS AS THE PERMIT HOLDER FOR THE
MT. ASHLAND SKI AREA - AMENDED
Recitals:
A. The City of Ashland holds the Special Use Permit (SUP) for the Mt. Ashland Ski Area (Forest
Service Special Use Permit dated May 10, 1991).
B. The City of Ashland as the permit holder is ultimately responsible for compliance with the
terms and conditions ofthe SUP (SUP Section VILA).
C. The City of Ashland leases the ski area facilities to Mt. Ashland Association (Lease Agreement
dated July 9, 1992). The Lease Agreement gives the City of Ashland the right to conduct
inspections and investigations of ski area operations (Section 13.4).
D. Pursuant to the Lease Agreement, Mt. Ashland Association has agreed to assume responsibility
for compliance with the Permit terms and conditions.
E. The City of Ashland places a high priority on the protection of the Ashland Municipal
Watershed which originates in the ski area permit area.
F. The Special Use Permit, upon termination of the permit, requires removal of equipment and
restoration ofthe Mt. Ashland Ski area (SUP section X.A).
G. The responsibility to restore the ski area and the ultimate maximum liability for restoration of
the Mt. Ashland Ski is uncertain and contingent on policy and environmental standards that may
be in effect at such future time that restoration is required.
H. The City of Ashland desires to prudently plan for and address responsibility for this contingent
liability.
THE CITY OF ASHLAND RESOLVES AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1. The City Council shall take reasonable steps to estimate the cost of removal and
restoration, including the planned expansion area, in accordance, at a minimum, with the
restoration standards specified by the Forest Service Environmental Assessment and Decision
Notice of April 1992 (Alternative C). Reasonable steps shall include an initial inquiry ofthe US
Forest Service for an estimate. If the US Forest Service is unable to or refuses to provide such
estimate, the City will take such other reasonable steps as it determines prudent to estimate the
costs of restoration. The City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual agreement
with Mt. Ashland Association regarding the maintenance of reserves, bonding, or other security to
fund the estimated cost of the ski area restoration.
RESOLUTION 2005-3 September 6, 2005
Enclosure (1)
If
SECTION 2. The City of Ashland requests that Mt. Ashland Association provide a Business Plan
showing capital expenditure and operating projections for the planned expansion. The City
Council may retain an independent accounting firm to review the Business Plan. The requested
Business Plan should include these elements:
· Projected construction expenditures for each year of the expansion build out.
· Projected sources of funds for financing the expansion for each year of the build out.
· Projected operating revenues and expenses reflecting historic skier visitation variability for
at least a 10- year time frame during and after the expansion build out.
· Sources of funding for financing restoration/rehabilitation reserves.
· Sources of funding for financing the QA/QC team.
The City will request MAA to provide an annual update to the business plan until build out of the
expansion has been completed.
SECTION 3. The City Council shall cooperate with Mt. Ashland Association to appoint a Quality
Assurance/Quality Control team to oversee ski area construction and protection of the municipal
watershed, substantially as described in the comments submitted by the City of Ashland to the
Forest Service on October 7, 2003 (DEIS comments). Ideally, the QA/QC team should be an
independent team of 2 to 4 persons specialized in soils and hydrology that coordinates with the
City, MAA, and the Forest Service. The QA/QC team should be formed prior to construction to
define strategies for erosion and sediment control, mitigation, and restoration/remediation. The
City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual agreement with Mt. Ashland
Association to provide construction funding for the QA/QC team and to ensure that all future
construction activities comply with the coordinated recommendations of the QA/QC team and the
Forest Service.
SECTION 4. The City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual agreement with Mt.
Ashland Association to implement this resolution before future construction activities commence.
SECTION 5. This resolution takes effect upon signing by the Mayor.
This resolution was read by title only in accordance with Ashland Municipal Code Section
2.04.090 duly
PASSED and ADOPTED this 6th day of September, 2005:
Barbara Christensen, City Recorder
SIGNED and APPROVED this 8th day of September, 2005:
John W Morrison, Mayor
Reviewed as to form:
Michael W Franell, City Attorney
RESOLUTION 2005-3 September 6, 2005
Enclosure (1)
Quality Assurance I Quality Control (QA/QC)
In total, the resolution for the QA/QC portion states:
SECTION 3. The City Council shall cooperate with Mt. Ashland Association to appoint a Quality
Assurance/Quality Control [QA/QC] team to oversee ski area construction and protection of the municipal
watershed, substantially as described in the comments submitted by the City of Ashland to the Forest Service on
October 7,2003 (DEIS comments). Ideally, the QA/QC team should be an independent team of 2 to 4 persons
specialized in soils and hydrology that coordinates with the City, MAA, and the Forest Service. The QA/QC
team should be formed prior to construction to define strategies for erosion and sediment control,
mitigation, and restoration/remediation. The City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual
agreement with Mt. Ashland Association to provide construction funding for the QA/QC team and to ensure that all
future construction activities comply with the coordinated recommendations of the QA/QC team and the Forest
Service. (emphasis added)
QA/QC Concept:
Although the Forest Service is required to enforce the environmental controls in the Record of Decision (ROD),
the Council has asked to explore additional requirements to specifically protect the water quality and quantity of
the watershed. The QA/QC concept was developed to help Council move forward with the expansion, yet
maintain additional quality controls through the construction process.
Industry QA/QC concepts are grounded in the aspect of managing uncertainty and risk. As articulated in the
Council's resolution, QA/QC ensures the project has technically sound controls to ensure environmental risk is
defined and also has the means and responsibility to quickly correct potential impacts.
As council defined in their resolution, the primary focus would be on erosion and sediment control, mitigation,
and restoration/remediation to minimize, if not eliminate, the negative impact on the water quality or quantity
within Reeder Reservoir. The QA/QC Team is designed to provide technical expertise in soils and hydrology as
that relates to erosion, sediment and the protection of our water quality and quantity in the Ashland watershed.
The focus would be to assess the processes and assure the processes outlined will meet the objectives, and to
ensure the controls are in place to evaluate and change the conditions to meet the objectives. The goal is to
better define the partnership and bridge the gap between the City and MM to develop trust in the construction
process.
QA/QC Goals:
Prior to the implementation of the QA/QC Team, defining the goals of the team and the program is necessary.
The Forest Service is responsible to ensure the environmental change and monitoring requirements of the ROD
be followed and upheld. Some of the proposed goals of the QA/QC Team and program are specifically aimed at
implementation requirements beyond the ROD.
Staff recommends the following goals for the QA/QC Team and program:
1. The primary goal is to identify potential concerns with the construction process and on-the-ground
solutions to prevent increases in disturbance in water quality and water quantity of the City's water supply
for Reeder Reservoir within the Ashland watershed.
2. Assure that construction activities proceed in a timely manner and have a minimum negative impact with
respect to erosion and sediment control, and that construction equipment and processes are completed
without environmental hazards (spills, etc.).
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 1 of 8
3. Assure that recommended and required prevention and correction actions are taking place and are
meeting the required effects to protect the water quality and quantity of Reeder Reservoir within the
Ashland watershed. Accurately report the results of the monitoring.
4. Assure that pre-construction, construction, and post-construction impacts are measured to determine the
extent of impacts with respect to erosion and sediment control, and if any corrective action or remedial
actions are necessary.
5. Meet with MAA and make recommendations to eliminate, reduce, and correct actual and potential
negative impacts with respect to erosion and sediment control due to the construction activities.
6. Report quarterly to the Ashland City Council, Forest Service, and the MAA during the construction period.
Composition:
QA/QC Team: As stated in the Council's resolution, "Ideally, the QA/QC team should be an independent team
of 2 to 4 persons specialized in soils and hydrology that coordinates with the City, MAA, and the Forest
Service. The QA/QC team should be formed prior to construction..."
The key to a successful QA/QC Team is to ensure the right technical expertise is available to the team. The
technical expertise is necessary for soils, soils stabilization, erosion and erosion controls, hydrology and water
quality.
Public Works Director Paula Brown has met with MAA and with a representative of a firm they have hired to assist
them with the initial steps toward the monitoring and site remediation options prior to construction. Michael Hogan
(Integrated Environmental Restoration Services, resume and references attached as enclosure (3)) has
developed a detailed monitoring program to initiate the pre-monitoring requirements that are in the ROD and that
have been discussed previously. Michael Hogan is also looking as some of the site conditions with respect to
initial planning for construction activities. Public Works Director Brown, Michael Hogan, MAA (staff and a board
member), and two staff members from the Forest Service discussed his plan and purpose at this initial meeting.
Michael Hogan will be at the study session to represent his group, present information, give Council a snapshot of
his prior work experience with environmental remediation projects, and will explain his approach with MAA with
regard to monitoring and site specific conditions to the City Council.
Although MAA has proposed using Michael Hogan and his team as the QA/QC team, staff recommends that the
Council appoint the QA/QC team members. Council may wish to consider jointly funding any work that
consultants, including Michael Hogan, perform as part of QA/QC.
QA/QC Advisory Group: In addition to the technical QA/QC Team, staff recommends the Council assign a QA/QC
Advisory Group that would perform the coordination between the City, MAA, and the Forest Service that is
required by Council's resolution. Staff recommends this advisory group have the following membership:
· City Public Works Director as the primary lead to focus the QA/QC direction, remind the Team of the
QA/QC goals for the process, prepare summary meeting notes, be responsible for administering the
QA/QC Team's contract and make payment authorizations as necessary, etc.
· A City Council Liaison to ensure policy direction is being implemented and to report back to the City
Council on an informal basis; gain Council approval for any changes in direction or policy goals, etc.
· One or two community ad-hoc members who are familiar with prior water quality concerns and City
policies with regard to watershed protection as community oversight in the process.
· A Forest Service staff member as a federal partner to the process; identify Forest Service requirements,
explain Forest Service processes and procedures for ROD implementation and permit compliance
associated with the ROD; not advising City decision-making about implementation beyond the ROD.
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 2 of 8
· One to two members from MAA (staff and Board) to inform of the business and financial implications as a
business partner to the process.
The QAlQC Advisory Group would meet with the QAlQC Team, MAA, and the US Forest Service on a monthly
basis during the construction periods so that the City and each agency are aware of the direction and concerns of
the QA/QC Team.
QAlQC Team Duties and Responsibilities:
1. Be available for weekly site meetings for as much as twice a week on site discussions and monitoring.
Be available within a 24 hour notice to help with emergent decision making during the construction period.
2. Review construction plans and MAA work plans prior to any implementation to assure adequacy of
environmental preservation, erosion, and sedimentation measures (includes the Stormwater NPDES
permit requirements). The idea is to ensure this review happens during the plan development and prior to
formal agency review so that any recommendations are included in ~e final submission for agency
review.
3. Develop priorities for construction activities that stress protection of soils to ensure the site is stabile with
respect to erosion and sediment concerns prior to actual disturbance.
4. Recommend alternative 'site specific construction processes or preliminary restoration efforts to protect
wetlands, vegetated slopes and to improve the soils retention on site. The issue with this is help correct
site specific construction activities that are not working as well and to help define and implement better
solutions to help the process move forward in conjunction with the regulatory agencies and with the MAA
construction contractor.
5. Recommend environmental protection measures with respect to construction vehicle/equipment fuel or
related spills. Same intent as described in #4.
6. Work with MAA to understand the financial impacts of their recommendations with regard to change
orders to MAA's construction contract. Use the Advisory Group to assist in any disputes regarding the
financial impacts and relative environmental impact should disputes arise.
7. Inspect construction and environmental control measures to assure compliance with permits and agreed
upon preservation measures. Although the various regulatory agencies have the responsibility to ensure
compliance, the QAlQC Team should embrace the responsibility to provide advice for corrections and
work with the MAA contractor for improvements. Assist with site specific improvements to overcome
permit violations with regard to environmental impacts.
8. Monitor East and West Forks of Ashland Creek in various locations upstream of Reeder Reservoir and at
the edges of the ski are expansion for turbidity impacts with respect to construction impact due to erosion
and sediment control.
9. Monitor other erosion treatment areas to ensure the desired effects of the "cure" are being enabled, and
further suggest/require improvements to the corrective actions as necessary.
10. Work directly with the MAA and contractors to recommend and require corrective action or remedial
actions to eliminate or significantly reduce and control any negative impacts with respect to erosion and
sediment control. These recommendations would not only be the known Best Management Practices, but
also site specific treatments and modifications to site specific treatments to ensure the best possible
control measures.
11. Monitor recommended and required corrective actions and provide information to the QAlQC Advisory
Group.
12. Conduct post-construction monitoring and recommendations for remediation to ensure correction to any
soil erosion concerns that may have surfaced after construction and any weathering on site in the
expansion areas.
13. Provide information on all recommendations and required measures to the QAlQC Advisory Group.
14. Develop and deliver formal quarterly reports to the City Council, MAA and USFS.
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 3 of 8
15. Attend council meetings (every other month) or other public meetings (quarterly) to advise Council and
the community.
QA/QC Team Authority:
1. Approval authority on the design of on-the-ground implementation and control measures with respect to
prevention of erosion and sediment movements.
2. Approval authority to change the implementation process for the contractor to improve environmental
protection measures with respect to erosion and sediment controls.
3. Approval authority to change monitoring locations to better provide data with regard to site specific
impacts relating to erosion and sediment controls.
4. Reporting authority related to on-the-ground implementation and control measures with respect to
prevention of erosion and sediment movements.
5. Authority and responsibility to notify City, MAA, and USFS whenever potential permit violations are
evident. (May be duplicative of regulatory responsibilities, but this effort should compliment corrections to
enforcement actions, not enforce permit violations). Assist with site specific improvements to overcome
permit violations with regard to environmental impacts.
6. Authority to alert enforcement agencies (COE, NMFS, DSL, DEQ, EPA, etc.) if actual violations occur.
Notification to City, MAA and USFS to occur concurrently. (May be duplicative of regulatory
responsibilities, but this effort should compliment corrections to enforcement actions, not enforce permit
violations). Assist with site specific improvements to overcome permit violations with regard to
environmental impacts.
QA/QC Advisory Group Authority:
1. The QA/QC Advisory Group recognizes the partnership for the expansion of the Ski Area and ensures
that all of the entities have a forum for open discussion of any concerns with the construction process and
it's affects on the environment.
2. This group is advisory ONLY and has no inspection or authority to require changes.
3. This group participates in the discussions with the technical QAlQC Team, but has no authority to
override the QA/QC Team's direction to MAA or its contractors.
4. Assist in any dispute resolutions regarding the financial impacts and relative environmental impact should
conflicts arise.
5. This group will report to its constituent group and will advise as to how its group would react.
Contract and Financing:
1. City and MAA share equally in the cost of the QAlQC Team
2. City and MAA equally contract for the QAlQC Team services
3. City or MAA or the QA/QC Team can sever the relationship with 30 days notice (will be a provision in the
contract) .
4. City's rep for the contract administration is the Public Works Director
5. City's financing will come from the Water Fund
If City Council concurs with these recommendations it is recommended that a memorandum between the parties
be developed.
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 4 of 8
MAA Business Plan
SECTION 2. The City of Ashland requests that Mt. Ashland Association provide a Business Plan showing capital
expenditure and operating projections for the planned expansion. The City Council may retain an independent
accounting firm to review the Business Plan. The requested Business Plan should include these elements:
· Projected construction expenditures for each year of the expansion build out.
· Projected sources of funds for financing the expansion for each year of the build out.
· Projected operating revenues and expenses reflecting historic skier visitation variability for at least a 10-
year time frame during and after the expansion build out.
· Sources of funding for financing restoration/rehabilitation reserves.
· Sources of funding for financing the QA/QC team.
The City will request MAA to provide an annual update to the business plan until build out of the expansion has
been completed.
Discussion
At your September 6 work session, MAA will present this business plan.
Mount Ashland Association submitted the document included as Attachment 4 as their business plan on August 9.
MAA acknowledged in the letter transmitting the business plan that the documents that they submitted did not
meet the resolution's request for a ten year business plan. In their letter, MAA states that "The resolution requires
a 10 year plan, but at this point Mt. Ashland is only committing to Phase One, and any subsequent additional
phases will be done on an as needed basis. We will provide the City of Ashland with an additional business plan
when we project the need for the next phase of construction."
Staff has reviewed the very general information in the documents submitted. Because they have included only
summary information, we can draw only one major conclusion from the material. MAA assumes that 100% of the
capital construction costs (of $3.7 million) will be raised from donations and grants. They do not plan to have any
operating revenue go towards construction, and do not plan to finance the construction. Hence, they have not
included any refinancing or repayment costs in their expense projections.
The summary data presented by MAA shows that MAA will face an operating loss the first year after expansion,
with significant growth in profits in years 2 and 3, as shown in the following table
Projected Projected P rofitJ
Revenue Expenses (loss)
Year 1 $346,000 $398,500 ($52,500)
Year 2 $1,032,000 $812,400 $219,600
Year 3 $1,720,000 $939,200 $780,800
Martha Bennett and Paula Brown met with Bill Little and Kim Clark of MAA on August 30,2006. At that meeting,
we told MAA that we do not believe that the business plan meets the criteria of the resolution in several ways. For
example:
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 5 of 8
. The business plan does not include any detail about expenditures of revenues. We do not know even
which major categories of expenses (e.g., personal services, utility costs, etc.) are changing. The same is
true for revenues. Are revenues increasing from season pass sales, lift tickets, rentals, or other sources?
· No analysis of the existing operations or expenses is included. The materials submitted by MM do not
include any data of the financial status of the current operation. Although the City has prior financial
reports (in other words, we could figure that out, at least up until the end of FY 2005), we would have
expected to see the business projections for the entire MM operation.
. The plan assumes a "straight-line" increase in visits without including any history. In other.words, each
ski season is different because the snow is different each year, but the materials submitted do not use
historic data as a way to account for the potential variations in visits.
MM has informed us that they do have a more detailed business plan. MM states that they are concerned about
releasing proprietary information because they do not wish to give information to their competitors. Staff believes
that Council needs more detailed information to determine whether the expansion makes sense economically.
Staff suggests two possible ways to accommodate MM's desire to protect confidential information. Council
could:
. Request that MM submit a more complete business plan as a confidential document under (ORS XXXX).
Council can then schedule an Executive Session to hear a presentation from MM on the business plan
as allowed by ORS 192.660. There is a risk to MM that, if a public records request were made, it is
possible that the City would need to release a document if it is not found to truly be confidential.
. Hire an independent financial consultant to review the more d~tailed business plan and develop a
summary report, with findings for the City. The resolution states that the City has the right to retain an
"auditor" to evaluate the business plan. Staff believes that rather than an auditor, we would need to retain
someone who regularly reviews business plans, such as a loan officer, a grantorfrom a foundation, or a
person who works to develop business plans (such as at SOU's small business development center).
This person could review the details and provide an opinion to the Council.
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 6 of 8
Cost Estimates for Removal and Restoration
SECTION 1. The City Council shall take reasonable steps to estimate the cost of removal and restoration,
including the planned expansion area, in accordance, at a minimum, with the restoration standards specified by
the Forest Service Environmental Assessment and Decision Notice of April 1992 (Alternative C). Reasonable
steps shall include an initial inquiry of the US Forest Service for an estimate. If the US Forest Service is unable to
or refuses to provide such estimate, the City will take such other reasonable steps as it determines prudent to
estimate the costs of restoration. The City Council will make reasonable efforts to reach a mutual agreement with
Mt. Ashland Association regarding the maintenance of reserves, bonding, or other security to fund the estimated
cost of the ski area restoration.
Staffs review of Alternative C of the 1992 Environmental Assessment (EA) defines that alternative as "moderate
level of restoration that would restore the ski area to a level that the Forest Service deems necessary to stabilize
the site and keep erosion and mass wasting minimaL" There are nearly four pages of mitigation measures
defined for specific waterbars, berms, re-seeding, tree planting, culvert removal, etc. to be used in the restoration
activities. The 1992 EA identifies 97,810 square feet of disturbed area in buildings, parking, lifts/terminals and
roads. The relative cost (1992) to restore the site was estimated at $133,000 to $195,000. Today's costs
assuming a 3% annual inflation (1.558) puts those estimates at $210,000 to $305,000. An appendix to the 1992
EA identified additional existing conditions at the ski area that "... require attention during restoration" but were not
apparently included in the estimated costs.
The 2004 Final Environmental Impact Statement, Volume 3, Appendix F (November 2002 Status Report on the
1992 Mt. Ashland Ski Area Restoration Environmental Assessment Document Ten Years Later) clarified the word
"restoration" to include statements in the 1994 Northwest Forest Plan "'restoration' is typically a watershed goal
where actions are identified to return watershed functions to previous and/or functional conditions. NWFP actions
typically involve in-stream actions to restore conditions. This should not be confused with site 'reclamation', as
was the intent of the 1992 plan."
The November 2002 Status Report reviewed the additional sites (35) annotated in the 1992 EA Appendix, which
identified such items as areas of bare soils, erosion gullies, additional road surfaces, sewage system (installed in
1992 and replaced with a new Sequential Batch Reactor package plant in 1999) and the fuel tanks (which were
remov.ed in 1994 through DEQ permitting). Each of the sites was visited in October 2002, photographed and has
its own assessment with the majority of the 35 sites requiring some level of additional restoration work. No cost
estimates were provided in this assessment of restoration work and the majority of the recommendations included
maintenance of waterbars, some revegetation, some erosion prevention, etc.
In a letter from the Rogue River National Forest to Mr. Merle Brooks (October 3, 1991), there was an estimate
completed with regard to ",..activities to 'restore the site' if the Mt Ashland ski area closes." As stated above, this
is more along the lines of reclamation as defined in the NWFP. The costs were estimated at $125,000 to
$175,000 for erosion control measures and an additional $750,000 to dismantle buildings, towers, etc. Converting
to 2006 dollars (3% inflation - factor 1.6047) this equates to $200,600 to $280,800 for stated erosion controls and
$1,203,500 for the fixed facilities.
Ed Olson (Interim Public Works Director) analyzed conditions specified in Alternative C and estimated $300,000 to
$400,000 to complete the work (memo dated November 30, 2005).
Per Council's resolution, staff has discussed the need for an updated estimate from the Forest Service. The
Forest Service's initial response (October 11, 2005) indicated "under the City's current agreement with the Mt.
Ashland Association (MAA), the City requires MAA have $200,000 available in 'readily available assets.' The
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 7 of 8
Forest Service believes that this amount would cover costs of dismantling and restoring the current ski area." The
ROD requires "this amount will be proportionately adjusted to account for any increase in developed area. At this
time, the Forest Service is awaiting the outcome of current litigation regarding the projects and activities
authorized in the ROD. We are also awaiting an implementation schedule from MAA. The Forest Service will not
provide a new estimate or restoration costs until after the litigation issue is decided..." Recent discussion
between City staff and the Forest Service indicate the Forest Service will provide updated cost estimates once the
judge rules and once the MAA work plan has been approved. Staff will continue that discussion with the Forest
Service.
At this time, without a new assessment of the current ski area, and without the assistance from the Forest Service
in implementation schedules for the MAA expansion area, there is no new accurate estimate for restoration.
Review of the basis for prior estimates, and looking at the definition of restoration, it is felt that $450,000 to
$500,000 will cover restoration work within the current site. Full reclamation efforts would be significantly more
involved and cost more to implement.
Related Issues
As part of preparing this staff report, staff also looked at the terms of our lease agreement with MAA for
restoration. This agreement requires a minimum of $200,000 Liquidation Value of the assets to be held for
restoration.
Staff assumes that if the ski resort closed due to financial difficulties there would be no cash available and real
(permit) property could not be liquidated to pay restoration costs. That leaves assets deemed improvements and
personal property (i.e. ,equipment). Staff reviewed material from MAA to determine whether there is sufficient
value in the equipment to cover the $200,000 requirements. At this time, we do not know whether the liquidated
value of the equipment covers the minimum amount required by the lease because we do not have expertise in
the resale value of ski area equipment. For example, it will take an industry expert to asses the value of rope
tows, chair lifts, snow cats, etc. to give a good estimate of what might be generated by a "fire sale" to meet
restoration requirements.
Although the lease envisions restoration if MAA fails, staff assumes that it is possible that some other operator
might take over if MAA ends, possibly removing the immediate need for restoration. If not, actual restoration
requirements could take months to negotiate and fund and could be a larger amount if reclamation is required.
The existing contract does not provide for changing how the restoration amount is calculated, including additional
monies for reclamation.
If Council is concerned that the restoration costs of the existing ski area are under funded should the resort cease
operation, then an appraisal of assets needs to be performed per the 1992 agreement. That would require hiring
a professional to do the appraisal. If the liquidation value of eligible assets is 110% over the calculated amount
per the contract (approximately $300,000 at this time) then the city would pay for the review and have no leverage
to require MAA to deposit money into a trust account. If the estimated liquidation value is less than $330,000 (the
110% target) MAA would pay for the appraisal and the city could require cash be deposited in a trust account. An
existing pool account managed by the city could serve in this fashion. Deposited monies would not be released
until such time as MAA proved other assets with sufficient liquidation value are in place. Staff will pursue an
appraisal at Council's direction.
Staff Report Mt Ashland Discussion
Enclosure (2) Page 8 of 8
A brief resume for Michael Hogan, MS
Integrated Environmental Restoration Services, Inc.
3/30/06
Michael Hogan is a soil scientist and restoration specialist who lives and works in the
Lake Tahoe Basin. He holds a masters degree in soil science from DC Davis and a
bachelor's degree in soils and hydrology from that same university. He is a principle of
Integrated Environmental Restoration Services, Inc. (IERS), a consulting and contracting
business dedicated to improving erosion control and restoration projects in the Sierra
Nevada. Michael has worked on a number ofprojects focused on erosion control and
restoration project innovation, improvement and information sharing. He developed the
Caltrans Sediment Control Demonstration and Development program, authored the
Revegetation Guidelines for Nevada Tahoe Bond Act erosion control projects, and has
developed success criteria and monitoring protocols for Nevada State Lands, Caltrans,
the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board and a range of construction partners.
He also pioneered the collaborative ski area - agency partnership, the California Alpine
Resorts Environmental Cooperative (CAREC) with which he produced the Sediment
Source Control Handbook. He focuses on small scale restoration projects, developmental
projects and incorporates research into these projects wherever possible. He works with a
broad range of entities on small and large projects, including Nevada and California
counties, the California Conservation Corps, Caltrans, the State of Nevada, DC Davis, as
well as private landowners, conservation organizations, and development partners. He
and IERS have worked with the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board,
Truckee River Watershed Council and local developers to create BMP and SWPPP
training and implementation that focuses on practical, functional and innovative solutions
to short and long term BMPs. He is the President of the Tahoe Chapter of the California
Native Plant Society and the past president and current board member/education chair of
the California Society for Ecological Restoration (SERCAL).
Michael Hogan Info
Enclosure (3)
Contacts-references for Michael Hogan
Name Affiliation Position Phone
Harold Singer Lahontan Regional Water Executive Officer (530) 542-5412
Quality Control Board
Scott Ferguson Lahontan Regional Water Division Head, Enforcement (530) 542-5432
Quality Control Board Division
John Singlaub Tahoe Regional Planning Executive Director (775) 588-4547 x 253
Agency
Carl Hasty Tahoe Regional Planning Deputy Director (775) 588-4547 x236
Agency
Sue Norman USFS- Lake Tahoe Basin Director- Monitoring and (530) 543-2662
Management Unit Adaptive Management
Programs
Gary Mitkiff Mitkiff and Associates- President (775) 588-1090
Environmental Planning
Peter Kratz Placer County Public Head-Tahoe (530) 581-6230
Works Division! Assistant Director
Paul Pettersen Nichols Engineering Partner/Head of Tahoe (775) 329-4955 x120
Erosion Control Division
Lisa Wallace Truckee River Watershed Executive Director (530) 550-8760
Council
Susan Clark California Society for Executive Director (661) 634-9228
Ecological Restoration
Joan Clayburg Sierra Nevada Alliance Executive Director (530) 542-4546
Blaise Carrig Heavenly Valley Resort President (775) 586-2311
John Freidrich League to Save Lake Tahoe Planning Director (530) 541-5388
John Loomis Northstar at Tahoe Resort Operations Director (530) 562-2213
Randy Southard UC Davis Associate Dean of (530) 752-0233
Environmental Sciences
Jim Culver LSA Associates Principle-retired/mentor (206) 780-1587
Monica Finn Caltrans Biologist (916) 799-6285
Michael Donahoe Sierra Club-Tahoe Chapter President (775) 588-5466
Michael Hogan Info
Enclosure (3)
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\\\\1 AUG 0 9 Z006 ~
August 8, 2006
Martha Bennett
City Administrator
City of AsWand Administration
20 E. Main Street
AsWand, OR 97520
By-
=
Dear Martha,
In response to the City of Ashland Resolution No. 2005-35 the Mt. Ashland Association
and the Mt. AsWand Ski Area respectfully submit the two enclosed documents in
accordance to section 1 and section 2 of the resolution.
In response to section 1, the restoration standards, is our letter of agreement to abide by
and provide for the restoration valuation, as established by the Untied States Forest
Service of the Mt. Ashland Ski Area. In response to section 2 is the expansion business
plan. This plan is for a five year projection as that encompasses the Phase One of our
planned expansion project and clearly shows our ability to operate and cover all costs
associated with the project. The resolution requests a ten year plan but at this point Mt.
AsWand is only committing to Phase One and any subsequent additional phases will be
done on an as needed basis. We will provide the City of Ashland with an additional
business plan when we project the need for the next phase of construction.
Section 3 addresses the QAlQC Team and Mt. Ashland continues to work with city staff
on this issue within their timeframe. Mt. Ashland has hired what we feel is an extremely
qualified company, Integrated Environmental Restoration Services, to oversee all of our
construction activities and mitigation/restoration projects and will make available to the
City of Ashland and the general public all findings and recommendations. We have done
this independently as we feel this is a perfect example of our willingness to go beyond the
requirements as described in the approved expansion documents governing this project.
If you have any further questions please feel free to contact us at any time.
Sincerely,
~~
Kim Clark
General Manager
Mt. Ashland
541-482-2897
kclark@mtashland.com
" ,
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P.O. Box 220 . Ashland, OR 97520-0008 . Shipping Address: 693 Washington Street
Office: 541-482-2897' Fax: 541-482-3644' Snow Report: 541-482-2754 or 541-770-2754
Email: info@mtashland.com . web www.mtashland.com
MT. ASHLAND SKI AREA
BUSINESS PLAN
EXPANSION PROJECT AS APPROVED BY
THE USFS RECORD OF DECISION
SEPTEMBER, 2004
Prepared August 9, 2006
This business plan is for Phase 1 of the approved expansion plan as outlined below.
Internally Mt. Ashland has applied a phasing plan to all approved improvements as
detailed in the Record of Decision issued by the United States Forest Service on
September, 2004. Initial phasing has been divided into three phases. Phase one is the
backbone of all future development at Mt. Ashland. Subsequent phases will be based on
the needs of our guests, positive cash flow analysis of the phases and adequate funding
capabilities. Mt Ashland year-end financials for the fiscal year 2005/2006 will be
available by October 2006 pending finalization of the independent review process.
Phase 1 Improvements- The following components are the major improvements
contained in phase 1:
· Clearing and preparation of 16 trails in the C-6 expansion area (71 acres)
· Clearing and preparation on existing runs for flow and safety concerns (4
acres)
· Installation of one fixed grip triple chair - C-6 expansion area
· Addition of an interim lodge at the base area (app. 8000 sq ft)
· Addition of a wanning hut (yurt type) lodge at the top of C-6
· Additional parking at the base area
Phase 1 financing- Mt. Ashland will be starting a capital fund-raising campaign with a
goal of $3,200,000.00 as soon as we receive the final approval for the project. Mt.
Ashland has approximately $500,000.00 on hand and in pre-committed funds from
donors to start the project. We have recently hired a full time Development Director to
lead our capital campaign. This person will be working with both individuals and Civic
organizations who have pledged their time and support of the project.
Phase 1 Operational Revenue and Expense projections- Our operational cost to
support the infrastructure of the project will increase our current budget by approximately
15%, including funding depreciation. Conservative estimates as low as 20% increase in
revenue from new business will provide a net profit of$390,000 per season using this
past year's revenue per-skier-day amount. The USFS estimates that the project will
increase usage by a minimum of 30%. With these numbers Mt. Ashland will be able to
keep affordable winter recreation in our region for many years to come and the expansion
will not contribute to increased consumer cost.
Phase 1 cost analysis-
Financing
Pre-committed funds
Capital campaign-year 1 &2
Subtotal=
$500,000.00
$3,200,000.00
$3,700,000.00
Improvements
Mountain preparations (lifts and runs)
Buildings
Lifts
Parking and grading
Miscellaneous
Power
Roads
Watershed projects
Other related costs
Contingency fund
Subtotal=
$152,500.00
$870,000.00
$1,002,000.00
$785,000.00
$52,500.00
$165,000.00
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$285,000.00
$373,000.00
$3,700,000.00
Revenue projections (after COG)
Year 1 (10,000 additional visits)
Year 2 & 3 (15,000 additional visits per year)
Year 4 & 5 (25,000 additional visits per year)
Subtotal=
$346,000.00
$1,032,000.00
$ L 720,000.00
$3,098,000.00
Expense projections
Year 1 (10,000 additional visits)
Year 2 & 3 (15,000 additional visits per year)
Year 4 & 5 (25,000 additional visits per year)
Subtotal=
$398,500.00
$812,400.00
$939.200.00
$2,150,100.00
TOTAL NET PROFIT AFTER 5 YEARS=
$947,900.00
Summary
This project is self-supporting financially and will add to the overall bottom line of Mt.
Ashland Ski Area. This makes significant contributions in two distinct ways.
First it will provide a much needed terrain balance at the area enabling us to serve a
larger, more diverse skiing and snowboarding population. This will keep more dollars in
the Rouge valley instead of going out of state or the region. It will provide more jobs at
Mt. Ashland during the slower winter months of the tourism year.
Secondly, and most importantly it will not add cost to the consumer for a day or season of
recreating on Mt, Ashland as it would be self-sustaining in revenue versus expenses.
The bottom line is this is a great project that will open up the world of winter recreation
to more of our residents and youth, and keep them returning for years
1--.....-....---.--
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,.Mt'Kshland
August 8, 2006
Martha Bennett
City Administrator
City of Ashland Administration
20 E. Main Street
Ashland, OR 97520
Dear Martha,
In accordance with the City of Ashland Resolution No. 2005-35, section 1 Mt. Ashland
Association and Mt. Ashland Ski Area agree to fully work with the City Council and the
United States Forest Service on the cost estimate for the removal and restoration,
including the planned expansion area, of all improvements and impacts. This initial
valuation will be provided by the United States Forest Service upon the outcome of the
legal proceedings pending under advisement at this time. We agree to work with the
Council to reach a mutual agreement regarding the maintenance of reserves, bonding, or
other security to fund the estimated cost of the ski area restoration.
Sincerely,
?-/ ~ --:>
Kim Clark
General Manager
Mt. Ashland
541-482-2897
kclark@mtashland.com
'~~ "1
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P.O. Box 220 . Ashland, OR 97520-0008 . Shipping Address: 693 Washington Street
Office: 541-482-2897 . Fax: 541-482-3644. Snow Report: 541-482-2754 or 541-770-2754
Email: info@mtashland.com . web www.mtashland.com
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CITY Of
ASHLAND
Council Communication
Mt. Ashland Lease analysis
Meeting Date: SS 9-6-06
Department: Legal
Contributing Departments:
Approval; Martha Bennett
Primary Staff Contact: Michael W. Franell
E-mail: franellm@ashland.or.us
Secondary Staff Contact:
E-mail:
Estimated Time:
Statement:
On August 15, 2006, Cate Hartzell sent the attached letter to the legal department asking several questions in regard to the
Mt. Ashland Ski Area lease agreement. This memorandum Will try to answer most of those questions.
1. what liability could the City of Ashland have in relation to compliance with the U.S. Forest
Service requirements on Mt. Ashland?
The property on which the ski area is located is owned by the United States government and
managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The City of Ashland acquired the rights of the special use
permit at the time it acquired the right to operate the ski area. All of-the City of Ashland's rights and
responsibilities in the ski area are contained within the terms of the Special Use Permit. As the permit
holder, the City of Ashland is the party primarily responsible for compliance with the terms of the
Special Use Permit. The lease with MAA provides that MAA will be responsible for compliance with
the terms and conditions of the Permit. So long as the lease agreement is operative, MAA agrees to
il')demnify and hold the City harmless for its failure to comply with the terms and conditions of ttie
lease.
-- - The biggest risk-of-Iiability-forthe -City-of Ashland occurs in the event the lease agreement is no ~onger
operative. There are not any survivorship provisions in the lease agreement for MAA's respo,:,sibility
for compliance with the terms and conditions of the permit. Therefore, if the lease agreement is no
longer valid, neither is MAA's responsibility for compliance with the permit terms and conditions.
To hedge the liability to the City, the lease agreement made two provisions: 1) The lease agreement
provides in section 2.1.6 that MAA shall maintain a minimum liquidation value in the assets which
revert to the City upon termination of the lease. This value was initially set at $200,000 with a CPI
escalator each year. 2) The agreement-made provision for a trust fund to be set up and maintained
into which regular deposits would be made. The initial contribution was to be made by the City. To
my knowledge, the decision was subsequently made to distribute all of the initial funds to MAA to help
with start up costs and a trust fund has never since been established.
Therefore, the most likely substantial risk of exposure to the City would be in the event of a termination of the special use
permit. Section 1 of the lease indicates termination of the permit also terminates the lease. To the extent the costs of
required restoration under the permit terms exceed the liquidation value of the assets on the mountain, the City would be
responsible.
2. Next you ask if the lease has any provisions for renegotiation in the event of a change in the City's status as
Special Use Permit (SUP) holder.
~..
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The answer is no. If the City is no longer the SUP holder, the lease terminates. The lease does not contain any anticipation
of other changes in the status of the City being the SUP holder.
3. The next question you pose is whether cutting down the trees in the area of the proposed
expansion could be considered to require the written permission of the City under Section
6.1 of the lease.
I believe the answer to your question is no. The operative portion of the lease reads:
Lessee without the written consent of Lessor which consent shall not be
unreasonably withheld shall not tear down or materially demolish any of the
improvements upon the Permit Property or make any material change or alteration in
such improvements which when completed would substantially diminish the value or
substantially alter the use of the Leased Property. (emphasis added).
The prohibition applies only to "improvements" on the property. Blacks law dictionary defines
improvement as
"A valuable addition made to property (usually real estate) or an amelioration in its
condition, amounting to more than mere repairs or replacement, costing labor or capital,
and intended to enhance its value, beauty or utility or to adapt it for new or further
purposes. Generally has reference to buildings, but may also include any permanent
structure or other development, such as street, sidewalks, sewers, utilities, etc. . . . n
The emphasis in the definition is on development, primarily a building or structure. I don't think the
courts would consider the trees naturally existing on the property to be improvements to which the
requirement to obtain permission applies. Especially since the first part of section 6.1 provides:
Except as herein provided Lessee may at Lessee's expense make such
alterations improvements additions and changes to the Leased Property as it may
deem necessary or expedient in the operation of the Leased Property
granting them explicit authorization to make alterations, improvements or additions.
4. The final question that you pose is who gets the sale value of the timber that would be cut
if the expansion proceeds?
I believe there is good argument that the City should be entitled to the proceeds. Paragraph 5 of the
lease provides:
Title to Assets. Throughout the entire Lease term the Permit Property and the
Equipment shall be and remain the property of the Lessor.
"Permit Property" is not defined within the lease agreement, but it is differentiated in the paragraph
from the equipment. Therefore, I believe a valid argument can be made the Permit Property refers to
interest in the land which includes an interest in the timber.
Attachments:
Copy of letter from Cate Hartzell, dated August 15, 2006.
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Cate Hartzell
881 East Main Street
Ashland, OR 97520
ru ~ @ tE D ill lE r ~'I
W AUG 1 7 2006 W
August 15, 2006
By
Mr. Franell,
I appreciate the advice you offered at the City Council's August 15,2006 meeting. In addition to the
points made in deliberation about the proposed resolution, a number of other very important issues that
warrant immediate follow up were identified.
First and foremost, it's my understandlng that you explained to us that you have identified a significant
fmancialliability for the City. You appeared to be saying that if the federal government chose to
terminate the City's Special Use Permit (let's say they decide to turn them into a unified concession or
terminate them altogether), that the City's lease with MAA instantly dissolves. I thought I heard you
say that under the terms of the Special Use Permit ~th the federal government, the City could have to
assume sole economic liability for restoring all incomplete or complete "improvements" without the
obligation ofMAA because our contract with MAA (that currently requires them to maintain a reserve
/ assume responsibility) would immediately be void. I have not watched the tape oftonight's meeting
yet, but I recall you saying that the lease appears to have no conditions governing a renegotiation in the
event that the City's status as Special Use Permit holder changes.
I am interested in your confirmation of whether I have understood you accurately. If! have, what
advice can you offer as to how we protect the City of Ashland's economic interest in this situation?
Second, Section 15 of the City's Mt Ashland Ski Area Lease states:
"Miscellaneous: Nothing contained in this Agreement shall create between the parties hereto, or shall
be relied upon by any other person as creating, any relationship of partnership, association, joint
venture, principal and agent, or otherwise. The sole relationship of the parties hereto shall be that
of landlord and tenant."
There was discussion at the August 15 City Council meeting that implied that we were partners; I may
have contributed to this notion in the past; collaboration is a good thing. However, since MASA has
referred back to the Lease recently, I think it's constructive to understand and respect the legal nature
of the relationship that is spelled out there.
.
Section 6.1 of the City's July 1992 Lease Agreement with MAA states:
"Except as herein provided, Lessee may at Lessee's expense make such alterations, improvements,
additions, and changes to the Leased Property as it may deem necessary or expedient in the operation
.ofthe Leased Property, provided that the Lessee, without the written consent of the Lessor (which
consent shall not be unreasonably withheld) shall not tear down or materially demolish any of the
improvements upon the Permit Property oimake any material change or alteration in such
improvements, which, when completed, woUld substantially diminish the value or substantially alter
the use of the Leased Property."
Could someone argue that changing areas that have previously been used for backcountry hiking and
alpine cross-country skiing and converting them to downhill skiing is substantially altering them?
"Ski expansion activities could directly affect a locally rare stand of Engelman spruce. Although not
listed or protected by law or policy, this stand is at the extreme end of its range and may represent a
unique component of biodiversity. There is a high degree of local public interest regarding effects to
this species." (DEISMt. Ashland Ski Area Expansion, Vol. 1,1-33)
Could someone argue that removing the Engelman Spruce grove is substantially altering the value of
the land, given that: I) one of the purposes of federally-owned property is the protection of rare species
and its habitat, and 2) the trees "may represent a unique component of biodiversity?" I assume that the
operative word in Section 6.1 is "substantially," which would be up to determination by the courts.
If the project goes forward and these rare and other trees are cut, under the Lease's "landlord-tenant
relationship" language, do you think the City could pursue purchase and resale of the trees logged in
the Expansion process as the preferred purchaser under the Permit with the Forest Service? Profits
from the value of the logged trees could serve as a reserve for the eventual restoration costs.
I appreciate the time you have given to considering our status on this matter and am interested in your
response to these questions at the earliest time. Since there may be discussion about this broader set of
issues at this Friday's meeting, I wanted to get my questions to you as soon as possible.
Thank you,
Cate Hartzell
DOCUMENTS SUBMllTED AT THE
SEPTEMBER 6, 2006
STUDY SESSION
September 6, 2006
To: Ashland City Council
From: Tom Rose
430 Wiley St
Ashland, OR 97520
Re: Mt. Ashland Study Session - Sept 2005 Resolution
As I am unable to attend the meeting tonight, I am asking that this letter be read into the public
record.
I strongly urge the Council to fmd that the Mt. Ashland Association has failed to meet the goals
of the September 2005 Resolution in the following ways:
1) Restoration. The Mt. Ashland Association and the Forest Service have made no effort to
estimate the cost of restoration of the current ski area plus the expansion area. The Forest
Service maintains that $200,000 is adequate. That figure is at between 1/2 to 1/10 of the actual
cost of restoration.
2) Business Plan. The one page document submitted to the City by the Mt. Ashland Association
in no way complies with the request of the City regarding a Business Plan. The document does
not, as requested:
* Project construction expenditures for each year of the expansion build out.
Instead, the document only discusses the cost for Phase 1. The estimated $3.7 million cost is
$1.6 million more than a fund raising study said the MAA could reasonably expect to raise.
Nevertheless, the MAA's document states that they will fund raise $3.2 million. This is totally
unsupported and has no basis in fact. Nothing is said about the remaining $13.3 million needed
to complete the expansion. How will Phase 2 and 3 be funded? How can the ski area build runs,
add a lift, project a 50% increase in visitation and not build the infrastructure required for these
additional visitors? The reality is that the MAA cannot fund the entire project - and cannot even
fund Phase 1 with any reasonable expectation. Why?
The MAA has lost money for all or nearly all of the past five years and will not be able
to put annual revenues towards the project - simply because there are no annual revenues.
II,
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The MAA's cash available for expansion has dwindled to a few hundred thousand
dollars, from a high of $1.4 million in 1992.
The MAA has never explained how they will pay for the expansion; not in the EIS and
not in the document that they have provided to you.
The MAA has become very shy about their finances. Where historically they
published their revenues and expenditures in their newsletter the Mountain Voice and
supplied the City and the State with their Accountants Review Reports in a timely
manner, they no longer do so. They are not even willing to share a reasonable business
plan with the City.
This is important because the MAA's inability to complete the entire project or even Phase 1 is
in doubt. Their inability to complete the project only makes it more likely that the City will
have to spend hundreds of thousand of dollars - maybe even millions - of taxpayers money to
dismantle the ski area and restore the municipal watershed.
* Project sources of funds for rmancing the expansion for each year of the build out.
You won't find this in the document. The proposed ftmdraising is unreasonable and the
, documents leaves out how they will pay for the remaining $15 million cost.
* Projected operating revenues and expenses reflecting historic skier visitation
variability for at least a 10 year time frame during and after the expansion build out.
There is nothing in the document regarding historic skier visitation variability. Instead, the
document assumes a straight line increase, with no off years. This is financially imprudent and
historically inaccurate. The Ski Area has either gone bankrupt and/or been sold at least three
times due to the variability of skier visitation. Just this year, MAA has announced visitation
10% lower than last year. Yet, the MAA did not find it prudent to consider historic variability
in their financial calculations.
* Sources of funding for rmancing restoration/rehabilitation reserves.
Nothing. Does MAA even have the money to finance these reserves? If so, then, why don't
they do so adequately so that the taxpayers of Ashland are adequately protected?
* Sources of funding for rmancing the QA/QC team
Nothing.
3) OAlOC Team
Nothing has been done to implement the QA/QC team portion of the Resolution. Hiring Michael
Hogan in no way meets this requirement.
I strongly urge you to protect the taxpayers of the City of Ashland. Tell MAA not to proceed
with cutting/construction prior to the City certifying that the MAA has complied with all parts
of the September 2005 Resolution and that the City finds that the Business Plan and Restoration
Plan adequately protect the City from financial liability . Lastly, the QA/QC team must have
been formed (as per the staffreport) and approved all of the construction plans and other
construction related documents prior to cutting/construction taking place.
Thank you very much.
Tom Rose
~:
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September 6, 2006
TO: ASHLAND CITY COUNCIL
FROM: TOM DIMITRE
The Mt. Ashland Association, on 8/15 told the City Council that they could begin cutting the ski
runs in the expansion area as early as 9/15 and that they would take the advice of their attorney
on whether or not to proceed at that time.
This is disingenuous and shows that the MAA is not willing to work as a partner with the City.
Proceeding prematurely, as proposed, puts Ashland taxpayers at risk in at least 6 ways.
I) The proposal puts taxpayers at risk because the MAA has publicly stated that they plan to
proceed clearcutting ski runs PRIOR to the court case being decided by the local court and
appellate court. Leslie Adams provided the Council with an example of the problem this may
cause - 35 acres of clearcuts in the watershed and a court injunction prohibiting further cutting.
Who will pay for cleaning up this mess and the rehabilitation and restoration that would be
required? My guess is the City.
2) The proposal puts taxpayers at risk because the MAA has not raised the $3.4 million
required for Phase 1 construction, nor $17 for the entire project. They have clearly stated that
they plan to begin logging/construction before they have raised any money. Beginning a project
without full financing in place risks an incomplete project. The City should insist that the MAA
show that full funding ($17 million) is in place. IfMAA is unable to fundraise or otherwise
obtain loans or other fmancing, the City will be on the hook for the rehabilitation and restoration
costs. While Mr. Little told you what would not be used to pay for the expansion - what the
City taxpayers, skiers and the rest of us are waiting to hear is how MAA IS going to pay for the
entire expansion. The information provided by the MAA does not answer this question.
Taxpayers and the City have a right to know.
3) The proposal puts taxpayers at risk because the MAA has not complied with Resolution
2005-35. The Resolution would help ensure, to the City's satisfaction, that the MAA expansion
plan is financially sound. The City requested a Business Plan. Instead, the MAA has provided
the City with one page that answers none of the questions in the Resolution, provides no
assurance that the MAA can finance any phases in the expansion, provides no basis for revenue
projections, doesn't account for variability in skier visitation (a historic fact) and also does not
project expenses and revenues over ten years. The MAA has completely failed to comply with
the City's request. Allowing the MAA to proceed with logging/construction without the
information requested being received and analyzed puts City taxpayers at risk and is not fiscally
responsible.
4) The MAA has put City taxpayers at risk because it has not agreed to increase the amount set
aside for restoration funding. Instead, the historic figure of $200K is still being used. It is clear
that $200K is woefully inadequate. This unreasonably low amount again puts the City
taxpayers at risk.
5) The MAA has lost money for all of most of the past five years and is in no position to fund
an expensive expansion - again putting City taxpayers at risk.
6) Proceeding to commence logging without a QA/QC team, as proposed in the staff report, and
without the QA/QC team analyzing the Operations Plan, Erosion Control Plan and Stormwater
Management Plan and other construction documents and plans again puts the taxpayers at risk.
As of two weeks ago, none of these plans had even been submitted to the Forest Service.
The MAA has made it clear that they are going to proceed to begin clearcutting runs in the
watershed - despite their failure to provide information that their expansion plan will not put
taxpayer money at risk. In fact, they have gone so far, as to try and bully the council with claims
that the City is interfering in their business. This is hogwash. The City and City Council must
act firmly and decisively to protect taxpayer money by adopting, in full, City staff's excellent
recommendations. I urge you to adopt Staff's findings and to send a very strong message to the
MAA that they should not proceed prior to complying with Resolution 2006-35 and the Staff
Report.
Thank you.
PREPRINT VERSION
This paper has been accepted for publication in the The Joumal of
Hydrometeorology. The official version of this paper will be the one that is
published, and may be contain minor edits that do not appear in this
version of the paper.
Mapping "At-Risk" Snow in the Pacific Northwest, U. S. A.
Anne W. Nolin and Christopher Daly
Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, U8.A.
Submitted 30 September 2005
Revised January 19, 2006
Accepted January 30, 2006
.Correspondence to:
Anne W. Nolin
Department of Geosciences
Wilkinson 104
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR, 97331 U. S. A
Email: lloli na@scicnc_e.orcgonstate.cdu
Phone: 541-737-8051
Fax: 541-737-8051
1
ABSTRACT
One of the most visible and widely felt impacts of climate warming is the change (mostly loss)
of low elevation snow cover in the mid-latitudes. Snow cover that accumulates at temperatures
close to the ice-water phase transition is at greater risk to climate warming than cold climate
snowpacks because it affects both precipitation phase and ablation rates. This study maps areas
in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States that are potentially at-risk of converting
from a snow-dominated to a rain-dominated winter precipitation regime, under a climate
warming scenario. We use a data-driven, climatological approach of snow cover classification to
reveal these "at-risk" snow zones and also to examine the relative frequency of warm winters for
the region. For a rain vs. snow temperature threshold of OoC the "at-risk" snow class covers an
area of about 9200 km2 in the Pacific Northwest region and represents approximately 6.5 km3 of
water. Many areas of the Pacific Northwest would see an increase in the number of warm winters
but the impacts would likely be concentrated in the Cascade and Olympic Ranges. A number of
lower elevation ski areas could experience negative impacts because of the shift from winter
snows to winter rains. The results of this study point to the potential for using existing data sets
to better understand the potential impacts of climate warming.
Keywords: climate change, snow hydrology, PRISM, Pacific Northwest
2
1. Introduction
One of the most visible and widely felt impacts of climate warming is the change (mostly
loss) of low elevation snow cover in the mid-latitudes. Temperature trends in the northwestern
United States show a warming of 1-20C since the middle of the last century and related declines
in snow cover (Karl et al. 1993; Lettenmaier et al. 1994). Changes in snow cover are particularly
pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Using measurements of April I
snow water equivalent (SWE) dating back to 1950, Mote et at. (2005) noted that the Pacific
Northwest has experienced the largest declines in snowpacks in the western United States. This
change can be primarily attributed to an increase in winter temperatures (Mote 2003; Mote et at.
2005). Phenological shifts of earlier blossoming as well as earlier spring snowmelt are further
evidence of a winter warming trend in the region (Cayan et al. 2000). Stewart et at. (2004, 2005)
examined discharge data from 1948-2000 and found a 9 to II day earlier snowmelt runoff in the
Pacific Northwest that they attributed to an increase in winter temperatures. It is important to
recognize that all of the trend analyses discussed above were limited to the latter half of the
twentieth century, because data were generally insufficient before about 1950. Given that
climatic conditions within this fifty-year period exhibited complex and non-linear variations over
various time scales, it is unclear how representative the reported trends would be for different
time periods, both past and future.
Climate impacts on snow hydrology are important throughout the western United States
but Pacific Northwest water budgets are particularly sensitive because total annual precipitation
is highly concentrated in the winter months. Furthermore, snow cover that accumulates at
temperatures near OoC is at greater risk to climate warming than cold climate snowpacks because
temperature affects both precipitation phase (snow vs. rain) and the rate of snowpack ablation.
3
Warmer winter temperatures will lead to more of the precipitation falling as rain than as snow
and earlier snowmelt. Changes in such climatologically sensitive winter precipitation can impact
management strategies for reservoir storage and hydropower generation, the frequency of rain-
on-snow floods, and winter recreation.
Climate models are in general agreement that temperatures will continue to rise over the
next century. Future climate scenarios show continued rising winter temperatures in the Pacific
Northwest with estimates ranging from 0.2-o.60C per decade (Mote et al. 2003). As we
endeavor to gage the potential consequences of climate change we need to understand the
impacts not only on a regional scale but also on watershed scales. For many applications, climate
model output is too coarse and even the downscaled hydrologic simulations are at resolutions no
fmer than 10 km (Mote et al. 2005). Furthermore, the projected temperature changes would not
be uniform from year to year and need to be understood in the context of the relative frequency
of warmer winters.
With this in mind, the goals ofthis investigation are to:
1. Map areas of seasonal snow cover in the Pacific Northwest that are at risk of converting
to a rainfall-dominated winter precipitation regime under projected climate warming;
2. Quantify the current and projected relative frequencies of warm winters in the Pacific
Northwest.
The data and methodology used are described in section 2. Section 3 describes and discusses the
results from the decision tree classification, the relative frequency analysis, and implications for
ski resorts in the region. Results are summarized in section 4.
2. Data and Methodology
4
a. Justification for using a snow classification approach
A climatologically based classification of seasonal snow covers provides a physically
based and widely applicable means of characterizing snow classes. Sturm et al. (1995) developed
a snow classification system that uses temperature, precipitation, and wind speed as the relevant
climate parameters for discriminating snow classes. Values of temperature and precipitation are
easily obtained but accurate wind speed data are generally not available and therefore they used
vegetation type as a proxy for wind speed. Sturm et al. reasoned that the presence or absence of
trees determined whether or not and area is a low or high wind environment It is well
established that wind speeds typically decrease as vegetation density increases (Pomeroy and
Gray 1995; Sturm et al. 2001; Walker et al. 2001; Essery and Pomeroy 2(04). For instance, wind
speed is the factor that distinguishes between the ''taiga'' (boreal forest, wind speeds of less than
0.2 m S-1) and "tundra" (low tussocks, wind speeds of 2 to 5 m S-i) snow classes. Validation of
this classification system showed that these three variables related closely to the physical
properties of the snowpack. This original classification was produced globally at 0.50 x 0.50
resolution.
Aside from producing maps of snow cover classes, a climatologically based snow cover
classification system can also be used to explore how changes in climate might alter the
distribution of snow classes. Of particular interest in the Pacific Northwest is the distribution of
maritime snow, that is, areas with high snowfall but relatively warm winter temperatures. Within
the classification of Sturm et al., maritime snow falls into a winter precipitation regime of
greater than 2 mm day-1 and high winter temperatures (near OOC). For this class, wind speed is
not a relevant parameter because it does not significantly influence snowpack physical properties
such as density and depth.
5
Using climate data to classify snow cover types provides an additional advantage in that
it allows one to test the impacts of projected temperature change on Pacific Northwest snow
packs. By imposing projected changes in temperature on the climate data, one can examine the
potential effects of climate change at higher resolution. In this study, we use a projected climate
change of +2.0oC, well within the projected range of increase of 1.5-3.20C by the year 2040 for
the Pacific Northwest (Mote et al. 2003). The Pacific Northwest region as defined in this study
includes the states of Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana (Figure 1). Below, we
describe the data sets, decision tree classification method, and a frequency analysis used to better
understand possible changes in interannual variability.
FIGURE 1
b. Precipitation and temperature data
We extend the work of Sturm et al. by using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on
Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set (Daly et al. 1994,2002,
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edulprism/).This is a widely used, high quality, topographically
sensitive data set of precipitation and temperature with a grid resolution of 2.5 min (4 km), two
orders of magnitude higher spatial resolution than the original snow classification.
We used historical monthly averages of mean temperature and precipitation for
December, January, and February from 1971-2000. PRISM provides values for mean monthly
maximum temperature (T max) and mean monthly minimum temperature (T min) and from this we
computed the monthly mean temperature (Tmean) where, Tmean = (Tmin + Tmax)/2.
c. Vegetation cover data
Since 2000, global maps of vegetation cover fraction have been produced using data from
the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Hansen et al. 20003). These
6
vegetation cover fraction maps provide measures of percent tree cover for each 500-m grid cell
and have been aggregated to the 4 Ian PRISM resolution. For inferring high wind vs. low wind
snow environments, tree cover fraction is preferred over biome maps, which provide no
information on forest density. For completeness we have produced a full snow cover
classification that includes temperature, precipitation, and wind speed.
d. Decision tree classification and thresholds
The new seasonal snow cover classification can be readily applied using a decision tree
approach: a binary classification system that assigns classes based on whether the snow exists in
a cold or warm climate, a wet or dry climate, and a windy or calm climate. The structure of the
decision tree is shown in Figure 2 and the threshold values are listed in Table l.
To discriminate whether a grid cell is considered to have any accumulation of seasonal
snow, it must have a mean monthly temperature ofless than or equal to a selected temperature
threshold for each of the core winter months (December-January-February, DJF). This is the rain
vs. snow threshold temperature and for individual storms is not a constant value and depends on
a variety of complex factors. Snow can fall at temperatures above OoC such as when a cold
precipitating layer lies above a warmer surface layer. In this case, latent heat exchange caused by
the melting snowflakes near the ground will lead to cooling of the lower layer (other factors
aside). Conversely, rain can fall at temperatures below OoC such as when a warmer precipitating
layer lies above a stable cold layer at the surface. This freezing rain phenomenon is a self-
limiting process because latent heat is released, warming the cold layer to OoC (LacIanann et at.
2002). In this study, we use monthly mean temperatures in which these transitory threshold
phenomena should average out. However, to address the inherent uncertainty in selecting a
single value, we perform our analysis using a range of rain vs. snow temperature threshold
7
values from -2.0 to 2.0oC.
F or the high vs. low winter precipitation threshold, we use the Stwm et al. value of 2 mm
day-l for each of the three core winter months. This allowed us to map areas where winter
precipitation is significant. In the Pacific Northwest, the majority of precipitation falls during the
winter and we are mainly concerned with changes in seasonal snow in areas where there is
significant precipitation. A change in seasonal snow in a region of high winter precipitation and
low summer precipitation is far more important than such a change in a drier climate or one that
has more of a balance of winter and summer precipitation.
There is no clear evidence on the density of vegetation that is required to establish a low
wind environment. Therefore, for this study, the threshold value is arbitrarily set at a forest cover
density of 35%.
FIGURE 2
TABLE 1
e. Relative Frequency Analysis
The impact of climate warming should be recognized within the context of climate
variability. Indeed, year-to-year variability in average winter temperature is typically larger than
the temperature changes projected by climate models. Therefore, we include a analysis of the
relative frequency of warm winters and use that as a guide to estimate the increased frequency of
warm winters in a projected climate-warming scenario.
Relative frequency is defmed as the number of times (N') an event occurs within a
number of N trials and it is empirically similar to probability. Thus, the relative frequency of an
event is N'!N. For the 30-year time series (1971-2000), we compute the average winter
temperature over the DJF period for each winter. Gridded time series data were again obtained
8
from the PRISM data sets (http://www.ocs.oregonstate.eduJprism/). For each grid cell, we
compute the relative frequency of winters with a mean temperature less than a specified
temperature threshold (OOC, -0.50C, -1.0oC, 1.50C, -2.<rC). This approach allows us to examine
the spatial variability of winter temperatures over the region and the number of warm winters for
a range oftemperature threshold values under the 20C projected climate-warming scenario.
3. Results and Discussion
a. Snow Cover Classification
The decision tree classifier was implemented using the various thresholds listed in Table
1. Figure 3 shows the results of the snow cover classification for a rain vs. snow temperature
threshold of OOC. Shown in red is the area of snow cover representing that which is currently
maritime snow with an average winter temperature less than OOC but exceeding -2.0oC. This
snow class represents the area that, for a projected warming of 2.0oC, would convert from
predominantly snowfall to predominantly rainfall. The total area represented by this snow class
is 9200 km2. To consider this in terms of snow water equivalent, we assume an annual average
peak SWE of 68.4 cm for this snow area. This is a mean value computed from the climatological
mean peak SWE values (1971-2000) of eleven SNOTEL sites that fall within the area covered
by this snow class. For this temperature threshold, the total volume of water represented by this
snow class as roughly 6.5 km3. Results for the other temperature threshold values are shown in
Figure 4. We see that the area of the at-risk snow cover class ranges from a minimum of 6080
km2 for a rain vs. snow temperature threshold of 2.0oC to a maximum of 10,832 km2 for a rain
vs. snow threshold of -0.50C. Figure 4 also shows that the area of the at-risk snow cover class
comprises less than 2.5% of all snow cover in the region. However, at-risk snow is
9
disproportionately concentrated in the Cascade Range. Using the OoC threshold case as an
example, 51 % of all at-risk snow in the Pacific Northwest is in the Oregon Cascades, and 21.8%
of all snow covered area in the Oregon Cascades falls into the at-risk snow class. By comparison,
12.5% of all snow covered area in the Washington Cascades is in the at-risk category. The
Olympic Range is another mountain region with a large proportion, 61%, of its snow-covered
area in the at-risk class.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 4
b. Relative Frequency Analysis and Potential Impacts on the Ski Industry
Figure 5 shows the spatial variability of the relative frequency of winters with mean
temperatures below OoC. As expected, the mountain regions have a much higher frequency of
winters with a mean temperature below OoC than do lower elevations. Figure 5 also shows the ski
areas in the region and, while most of them are outside the at-risk snow class, a number of them
negatively impacted by the projected warming. Using the 30-year temperature record, we
compute the relative frequency of warm winters. Even for those ski areas that are outside the at-
risk snow class, there would be an increase in the frequency of warm winters. In Table 2 we have
listed 19 ski areas in the Pacific Northwest that would experience a significant number of warm
winters (defined as having a relative frequency greater than 0.3 for the mean OJF temperature
exceeding -20C) under a climate-warming scenario. The location of each ski area corresponds to
the center of the grid cell in which the main lodge is located. In some cases, the elevation of the
PRISM grid cell was significantly higher or lower than the base elevation of the ski area. If the
elevation difference between the PRISM data and the base elevation of the ski area exceeded 100
m, a search was performed within a radius of three grid cells to locate the cell with the closest
10
match to the ski area elevation. Given that temperature is strongly influenced by elevation, and
that there are uncertainties in the ski area location and DEM terrain representation, selecting a
nearby grid cell with the closest elevation is likely to give a more accurate result than selecting
the grid cell with the closest geographic coordinates.
There are a number of relevant questions to consider when assessing the potential
impacts of climate change on the ski resorts. These include: How will the projected changes
described earlier affect ski areas at different elevations and at different latitudes? How would an
increase in the frequency of warm winters influence the number of skier days for particular ski
areas? How would climate warming affect the length and quality of the ski season? One might
also consider whether climate warming would have indirect but undesirable impacts such as an
increase in the frequency of forest fires in resort areas. An economic assessment of these impacts
is beyond the scope of this research but this points to the need for further study of such potential
impacts.
FIGURE 5
TABLE 2
Clearly this approach does not address potential changes in atmospheric circulation
patterns, patterns of year-to-year persistence, or the effects of individual cold storms that may
occur within an otherwise warm winter. However, it does provide a rough idea of the projected
change in the number of warmer winters for the region.
4. Conclusions
A climatological approach to snow cover classification reveals not only patterns of snow
cover but also an area of winter precipitation and relatively warm snow temperatures that would
11
be at risk of converting to rainfall under a projected 20C winter warming. While the impacts
depend on the rain vs. snow temperature threshold that is used, they are not insubstantial. For a
rain vs. snow temperature threshold of OoC, the "at-risk" snow class covers an area of about 9200
km2 and represents approximately 6.5 km3 of water, equivalent to about one-third the volume of
Crater Lake, Oregon. While the fraction of total snow cover represented by this at-risk class is
small overall, it is concentrated in the western mountains of the study area, particularly the
Cascade and Olympic Ranges. This at-risk area of snow cover is not well sampled by existing
SNOTEL or snow course sites and would benefit from additional, regular measurements.
Examination of the relative frequency of warm winters shows that in many parts of the
Cascade Range the number of warm winters is likely to increase significantly though not
uniformly over the Pacific Northwest region. Socio-economic impacts would include an increase
in the number of warm winters affecting ski resorts, especially those at lower elevations where
the temperatures are generally warmer. Additional impacts of these changes would likely be felt
in reduced mountain-front recharge of groundwater and hence summer low-flow levels in
streams and rivers of the region.
The results of this data-driven approach point to the potential for using existing data sets
to better interpret potential impacts of climate model output. Furthermore, such an approach can
help point the way for additional high spatial resolution modeling activities for watershed-level
analysis and simulations that would allow estimates of projected changes in the frequencies of
warm vs. cold winters.
Acknowledgments: This study was funded in part by a grants from USGS Water Resources
Research 20050R65B and NASA Cooperative Agreement NNG04GC52A. PRISM data were
obtained through the Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University. The 500-m
12
MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields imagery were obtained through the University of
Maryland, Global Land Cover Facility.
13
References
Cayan, D. R., S. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, 1. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson, 2001:
Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. 82,
399-415.
Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, D. L. Phillips, 1994: A statistical-topographic model for mapping
climatological precipitation over mountain terrain. J Appl. Meteorol., 33, 140-158.
Daly, C., W. P. Gibson, G.H. Taylor, G. L. Johnson, P. Pasteris. 2002: A knowledge-based
approach to the statistical mapping of climate. Climate Research, 22, 99-113.
Essery, R. and 1. Pomeroy, 2004: Vegetation and topographic control of wind-blown snow
distributions in distributed and aggregated simulations for an Arctic tundra basin. J
Hydrometeorol., 5, 735-744.
Hansen, M., R. DeFries, J. R. Townshend, M Carroll, C. Dimiceli and R. Sohlberg, 2003: 500m
MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields. College Park, Maryland: The Global Land Cover
Facility.
Karl, T. R., P. Ya. Groisman, R. W. Knight, and R. R. Heim, 1993: Recent variations of snow
cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature
variations. J Climate, 6, 1327-1344.
Lackmann, G. M., K. Keeter, L. G. Lee, and M. B. Ek, 2002: Model representation of freezing
and melting precipitation: Implications for winter weather forecasting, Weather and
Forecasting, 17, 1016-1033.
Lettenmaier, D. P., E. F. Wood, and J. R. Wallis, 1994: Hydro-climatological trends in the
continental United States, 1948-88. J Climate, 7,586-607.
14
Mote, P. W., 2003: Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic
causes. Geophys. Res. Letts., 30,001 1O.1029/2oo3GLOl7258.
Mote, P. W., E. A. Parson, A. F. Hamlet, W. S. Keeton, D. Lettenmaier, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles,
D. W. Peterson, D. L. Peterson, R. Slaughter, A. K. Snover, 2003: Preparing for climatic
change: The water, salmon and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change, 61,
45-88.
Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. L. Lettenmaier, 2005: Declining mountain
snowpack in western North America, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 39-49.
Pomeroy, 1. W. and D. M. Gray, 1995: Snowcover accumulation, relocation and management.
National Hydrology Research Institute Science Rep. 7, Environment Canada, Saskatoon,
SK, Canada, 134 pp.
Stewart, 1., D. R. Cayan, and M. Dettinger, 2004: Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western
North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario, Climatic Change, 62,
217-232.
Stewart, 1., D. R. Cayan, M. D. Dettinger, 2005: Changes toward earlier streamflow timing
across western North America. J. Climate, 18, 1136-1155.
Sturm, M., 1. Holmgren, and G. E. Liston, 1995: A seasonal snow cover classification for local to
global applications. J. Climate, 8, 1261-1283.
Sturm, M., J. P. McFadden, G. E. Liston, F. S. Chapin III, C. H. Racine and J. Holmgren, 2001:
Snow-shrub interactions in Arctic tundra: A hypothesis with climatic implications. J
Climate, 14, 336-344.
15
Walker, D. A., W. D. Billings, and J. G. de Molenaar, 2001: Snow-vegetation interactions in
tundra environments. Snow Ecology, H. G. Jones et aI., Eds., Cambridge University
Press, 398 pp.
16
List of Figures:
Figure I. Shaded relief locator map of the Pacific Northwest region used in this study.
Figure 2. The decision tree structure used in the snow cover classification.
Figure 3. Snow cover classification using a rain-snow threshold ofOoe. "At-risk" snow is shown
in red.
Figure 4. Total area of at-risk snow in the Pacific Northwest study area and the percent oftotal
snow covered area comprised by the at-risk class for the different rain vs. snow temperature
thresholds.
Figure 5. Relative frequency of winters with a mean DJF temperature less than o.ooe with the
"at-risk" snow cover class shown in red and ski areas indicated by the green dots.
17
List of Tables:
Table I. Threshold values used in the decision tree classifier.
Table 2. List of Pacific Northwest ski areas that are projected to experience a significant increase
in the relative frequency of warm winters for a range of temperature thresholds.
18
Map of Pacific Northwest Study Area
"
\\~~~\I
~
'-
o
137.5 275
550
Kilometers
D Study Area
Figure 1. Shaded relief locator map of the Pacific Northwest region used in this study.
19
All Data
Snow
No Snow
Maritime ("At-Risk") Snow
,---------------~
,
I
I
I
\" Warm Sno!l
.... ... - - ... ... - - _ _ _ ~._____-........-.......-............J
Cold Snow
Lo Wind
HI Preclp
HI Wind
La Wind
Lo Precip
Hi Wind
Lo Wind
Hi Precip
Hi Wind
La Wind
Lo Precip
Hi Wind
Figure 2. The decision tree structlU"e used in the snow cover classification.
\
I
I
I
,
20
Snow Classification
Legend
snow-free
_ cold snow. low precip. high wind
cold snow. low precip. low wind
_ cold snow. high precip. low wind
_ cold snow. high precip. high wind
warm snow. low precip. low wind
warm snow. low precip. high wind
_ warm snow. hi precip
Figure 3. Snow cover classification using a rain-snow threshold ofOoC. "At-risk" snow is shown
in red.
21
15000
14000
13000
.....
N
E
~ 12000
.....
.
~ 11000
Ul
i 10000
ii
~ 9000
...
0
II 8000
f
~
7000
6000
5000
-2.5 -2
.---,
---
\ \ % of PNW snow at risk
\
\.
"
"
'--
-
"
"
"
"
"
"
area of PNW
at-risk snow
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Rain-Snow Temperature Threshold (DC)
2.5
~
..
2 ii
C
..
u
>
o
1.5 U
.
o
i
1 ::c:
Z
a.
...
o
..
c
u
0.5 ~
u
a.
2
o
2.5
Figure 4. Total area of at-risk snow in the Pacific Northwest study area and the percent of Pacific
Northwest total snow covered area comprised by the at-risk class for the different rain vs. snow
temperature thresholds.
22
Relative Frequency of Mean DJF Temperature Less Than ooe
Legend
relative frequency
110
at-risk snow
..
ski areas
Figure 5. Relative frequency of winters with a mean DJF temperature less than O.OoC with the
"at-risk" snow cover class shown in red and ski areas indicated by the green dots.
23
Table 1. Threshold values used in the decision tree classifier.
Criteria
Threshold
ram VS. snow
DJF Tmean S -2.0oC to 2.00C in 0.50 increments
cold snow vs. warm snow climate
rain VS. snow threshold minus 20C
high vs. low winter precipitation climate
DJF Pmean ~ 2mm1day
low wind vs. high wind climate
tree cover fraction ~ 35%
24
Table 2. List of Pacific Northwest ski areas that are projected to experience a significant
increase in the relative frequency of warm winten for a range of temperature thresholds.
Relative frequency of winten with a mean DJF
temperature exceeding:
Ski Areas by Base
-2.0oC -1.SOC -1.OoC -O.SoC O.OoC
Region Elevation (m)
Oregon Cascades
Timberline 1509 0.43 0.30 0.13 0.10 0.07
Mt. Hood
0.47 0.40 0.23 0.13 0.07
Meadows 1379
Mt. Hood Ski Bowl 1082 0.73 0.63 0.63 0.53 0.30
Cooper Spur 1219 0.73 0.67 0.63 0.57 0.40
Hoodoo 1423 0.67 0.57 0.43 0.27 0.07
Mt. Bachelor 1920 0.33 0.13 0.07 0.00 0.00
Willamette Pass 1561 0.67 0.50 0.37 0.27 0.03
Warner Canyon 1606 0.63 0.60 0.50 0.33 0.20
Mt. Ashland 1935 0.40 0.40 0.27 0.17 0.07
Eastern Oregon and Washington
1
Spout Springs 1478 0.40 0.30 0.17 0.00 0.00
Mount Spokane 1164 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.33 0.27
Bluewood 1385 0.53 0.40 0.33 0.27 0.03
Washington Cascades
Mt. Baker 1082 0.33 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.03
Mission Ridge 1393 0.37 0.27 0.17 0.07 0.07
Crystal Mountain 1341 0.47 0.27 0.13 0.03 0.00
White Pass 1372 0.47 0.30 0.20 0.07 0.00
The Summit at
0.57 0.53 0.43 0.33 0.27
Snoqualmie 866
Stevens Pass 1238 0.37 0.27 0.10 0.03 0.03
Olympic Range
Hurricane Ridge 1463 0.77 0.63 0.57 0.43 0.33
2
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IF YOU WISH TO ADDRESS THE CITY COUNCIL:
1. Please complete this form and return it to the City Recorder.
2. Address the City Council from the table podium microphone.
3. State your name and street address for the official record.
4. Please limit your comments to 5 minutes, unless otherwise instructed by Mayor.
5. If written documentation is presented, please furnish one copy to the City Recorder for the
official record.
/
;'JIF YOU WISH TO SUBMIT WRITTEN COMMENTS TO THE CITY COUNCIL:
1. Please complete this form and return to the City Recorder.
2. Written comments will be part of the official record.
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